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Posted: 6/6/2022 10:26:37 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Another caravan of Illegals coming up as we speak. Who is paying for their housing? Personally I think this is what all the institutional buying is for. Guaranteed rent from .gov to house illegals in your neighborhood. |
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Posted: 6/6/2022 10:33:29 PM EDT
[#2]
When the economy crashes, where are people gonna get the money to pay their mortgages and buy new homes if they don't have a job?
But muh housing market gguhnna lick thuh moons.  Attached File |
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Posted: 6/6/2022 10:34:18 PM EDT
[#3]
Better graph - shows the Great Recession.
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Posted: 6/6/2022 10:36:49 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Better graph - shows the Great Recession. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IUSEHMSUM_chart.png Per the Fed/NAR.... 
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Posted: 6/6/2022 10:46:20 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Better graph - shows the Great Recession. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IUSEHMSUM_chart.png One that goes back further and is more current for new homes.  Attached File |
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Posted: 6/6/2022 10:47:55 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Per the Fed/NAR.... https://i.imgur.com/tDJe2sW.png Isn’t lurch’s graph showing existing homes and your graph showing new homes? Do they contradict each other in some way? |
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Posted: 6/6/2022 10:56:10 PM EDT
[#7]
That's the chart that shows what's going on right now.
Quote HistoryQuoted: One that goes back further and is more current. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/FTicz5CVsAAnvP9_png-2410017.JPG Quote HistoryQuoted: One that goes back further and is more current. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/FTicz5CVsAAnvP9_png-2410017.JPG Quoted: Isn’t lurch’s graph showing existing homes and your graph showing new homes? Do they contradict each other in some way? |
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Posted: 6/6/2022 11:07:42 PM EDT
[#8]
Housing prices are a function of the interest rate and principle. Just like cars people buy based on what payment they can afford. Interest rates have been low forever allowing builders to jack up prices which also drives up existing home values. That bubble is about to pop now that rates are up. There will be a little bit of lag time, but it's coming. A lot of people are going to be underwater a few hundred thousand or more. People keep coming up with rationalization and pretending like this hasn't all happened before.
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Posted: 6/6/2022 11:17:52 PM EDT
[#9]
Buy the dip. Its just demand being pulled forward. Dur dur
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Posted: 6/6/2022 11:30:17 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Better graph - shows the Great Recession. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IUSEHMSUM_chart.png That's the truth... there just isn't enough inventory to crash. Will it slow, yes, will there be a correction... probably but not a 2008 mega crash. |
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Posted: 6/6/2022 11:46:16 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's the truth... there just isn't enough inventory to crash. Will it slow, yes, will there be a correction... probably but not a 2008 mega crash. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Better graph - shows the Great Recession. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IUSEHMSUM_chart.png That's the truth... there just isn't enough inventory to crash. Will it slow, yes, will there be a correction... probably but not a 2008 mega crash. I have watched this debate on here for weeks. Existing home inventory, new home inventory blah blah blah blah. The basic facts are this. Millions of people will lose their job if the Fed Reserve follows through with its planned rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. Inventory will rise and prices are going to fall from the double whammy of slowed demand and higher mortgage payments. If the Fed does not do any of the things I outlined, it gets a bit more difficult to predict. Gas and Food prices throw another wrench into this, people are already hurting because productivity can not keep up with the current rate of inflation. There are a lot headwinds for the housing market. Would I short it right now, hell no. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:02:04 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What is the percentage on of home owners that own multiple homes? As the market tanks. Many people will sell if second homes. Especially if they were investment properties People with money will continue to buy more homes as the market tanks. That's what happened in the late 00s. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:04:56 AM EDT
[#13]
I’m a realtor in DFW. It ain’t collapsing anytime soon, unless the stock market hits rock bottom.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:28:31 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m a realtor in DFW. It ain’t collapsing anytime soon, unless the stock market hits rock bottom. That’s exactly what I expect a realtor to say. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:28:34 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When Boomers start dying, should free up some inventory. You better like waiting, all these boomers own their houses and gonna live another 20 years spending their 401k on their family trips to Disney and eating healthy shit and doing soduku keeping the brain sharp |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:32:18 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, there's too much funny money. US population growth is .1% and future generations are having fewer and fewer kids. There's more than enough existing housing to keep a roof over everyone's head and yet we're building almost 2,000,000 new homes a year. People (and hedge funds, corporations, foreigners, etc., are buying multiple homes as investments because of the rising prices. It 2008 all over again only on a larger scale. You know a LTV is on a home mortgage? If so, the housing market today has the highest amounts of owner equity than ever before. Back in 2008 you had retards buying houses with no money down, we don’t have that problem that causes the tsunami of buyers walking and banks fire selling all the turd houses that were bought up by strippers and carpet installers |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:35:10 AM EDT
[#17]
I'm expecting a crash worse than 2008. lets see who's right. a company who is in the business of selling houses and would lose millions( billions?) if there was a crash or someone with a brain and eyes.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:48:11 AM EDT
[#18]
What’s funny is that people now realize the only real tangible thing they really own is maybe a fucking house with dirt underneath it. It’s not a god damn car that you can’t afford to drive or a pile of bank statements or a time share in Dollywood. We sit there saying how bad inflation is gonna get and the crazy population growth and the global supply chain being fucked for decades…. Yet we can’t comprehend the millions of people with locked in mortgage rates at 3% that will just sit in their house and ride out inflation while all the poors fight over a top floor apartment so they don’t gotta hear the knew couple from Juarez fucking every night.
Yeah, the housing market ain’t “crashing”. No number of charts will change this reality for you. Quality housing and real estate in a nice area will never depreciate over the long term. Will it keep climbing like it did last 2 years, no…. But it ain’t crashing. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 7:48:44 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What’s funny is that people now realize the only real tangible thing they really own is maybe a fucking house with dirt underneath it. It’s not a god damn car that you can’t afford to drive or a pile of bank statements or a time share in Dollywood. We sit there saying how bad inflation is gonna get and the crazy population growth and the global supply chain being fucked for decades…. Yet we can’t comprehend the millions of people with locked in mortgage rates at 3% that will just sit in their house and ride out inflation while all the poors fight over a top floor apartment so they don’t gotta hear the knew couple from Juarez fucking every night. Yeah, the housing market ain’t “crashing”. No number of charts will change this reality for you. Quality housing and real estate in a nice area will never depreciate over the long term. Will it keep climbing like it did last 2 years, no…. But it ain’t crashing. Let’s hope we do a better job of it than China then. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 7:53:50 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What’s funny is that people now realize the only real tangible thing they really own is maybe a fucking house with dirt underneath it. It’s not a god damn car that you can’t afford to drive or a pile of bank statements or a time share in Dollywood. We sit there saying how bad inflation is gonna get and the crazy population growth and the global supply chain being fucked for decades…. Yet we can’t comprehend the millions of people with locked in mortgage rates at 3% that will just sit in their house and ride out inflation while all the poors fight over a top floor apartment so they don’t gotta hear the knew couple from Juarez fucking every night. Yeah, the housing market ain’t “crashing”. No number of charts will change this reality for you. Quality housing and real estate in a nice area will never depreciate over the long term. Will it keep climbing like it did last 2 years, no…. But it ain’t crashing. Riding it out in general requires keeping your job to make the payments. That may be a sticky issue going forward as companies start going under. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:03:34 AM EDT
[#21]
Why is the demand higher when birth rates have been declining? Unfettered immigration is probably a huge factor in this.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:09:50 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I thought millions were dying from Covid There are more nursing home beds available due to those deaths.  Remove section 8, SSI (social security disability for non-workers), and other various welfare programs and see what happens to the housing market. As boomers die off or get institutionalized there may be a decrease in demand. Esp. in areas without ample work. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:17:11 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You know a LTV is on a home mortgage? If so, the housing market today has the highest amounts of owner equity than ever before. Back in 2008 you had retards buying houses with no money down, we don’t have that problem that causes the tsunami of buyers walking and banks fire selling all the turd houses that were bought up by strippers and carpet installers And now you have folks with 5% down using stocks as collateral. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:17:38 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Riding it out in general requires keeping your job to make the payments. That may be a sticky issue going forward as companies start going under. Lol, the US will have a labor shortage for the next 20 years. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:22:20 AM EDT
[#25]
We watch a tiny market where we live. A month ago there were 5 houses for sale in our school zone, today there are 18.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:22:33 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Isn't lurch's graph showing existing homes and your graph showing new homes? Do they contradict each other in some way? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Per the Fed/NAR.... https://i.imgur.com/tDJe2sW.png Isn't lurch's graph showing existing homes and your graph showing new homes? Do they contradict each other in some way? Evidently they don't understand - new homes are a tiny portion of the housing market. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:31:18 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Evidently they don't understand - new homes are a tiny portion of the housing market. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Per the Fed/NAR.... https://i.imgur.com/tDJe2sW.png Isn't lurch's graph showing existing homes and your graph showing new homes? Do they contradict each other in some way? Evidently they don't understand - new homes are a tiny portion of the housing market.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:32:34 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol, the US will have a labor shortage for the next 20 years. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Riding it out in general requires keeping your job to make the payments. That may be a sticky issue going forward as companies start going under. Lol, the US will have a labor shortage for the next 20 years. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:45:57 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: New home inventory is spiking, existing home inventory will follow that trend. Demand is cooling and quickly.
Apparently understanding that a glut of new single and multi family home supply being built won't have a price impact in six months when they all hit the market and somehow demand is able to absorb it at such a strong pace it'll keep price where it is today.  Attached File |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:54:53 AM EDT
[#30]
Who cares. Unless you’re a real estate investor or a home builder you should be living your life so you can ride out any crash with it just being a minor annoyance. But we’ve made the average homeowner into a real estate investor because they dedicate so much of their earnings and wealth to their house. Now it’s fingernail biting time with every hiccup in the markets, and laypeople studying RE markets as if it’s their full time job. What a joke. Bring on the crash.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:43:35 PM EDT
[#31]
Prices are inflated, supply problems still exist, labor is disjointed and prices vary among builders, but the currency is crap.
In other words, Crap is messed up and nobody knows what’s going on like Biden when he is off his meds. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 12:50:23 PM EDT
[#32]
There are a great many developments being constructed in areas inside of 10 miles from me. I doubt very seriously that they would be starting these if there was any inkling of a crash.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 1:41:13 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There are a great many developments being constructed in areas inside of 10 miles from me. I doubt very seriously that they would be starting these if there was any inkling of a crash. I am pretty sure they were doing that in 2008 too. It wiped out most of the bigger home builders here. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 2:16:48 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I am pretty sure they were doing that in 2008 too. It wiped out most of the bigger home builders here. 2008 does not hold a candle to what is going on around here now. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 2:19:08 PM EDT
[#35]
Very interesting. There wasn't supposed to be a housing collapse the last time either. Only time will tell...
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Posted: 6/7/2022 2:21:17 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Should break up the portfolios of the companies creating the housing market crises and have a forced sale by date or lose all claim to funds from sale and tax write offs. Flood the market. Houses can only be purchased by Americans who own 3 or less properties. I'm for a free market but the scheme in which they purchased the properties was not free market. It was not capitalism. It was financed by devaluing the dollar to print money for the crime. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 2:29:22 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You better like waiting, all these boomers own their houses and gonna live another 20 years spending their 401k on their family trips to Disney and eating healthy shit and doing soduku keeping the brain sharp Quote HistoryQuoted: You better like waiting, all these boomers own their houses and gonna live another 20 years spending their 401k on their family trips to Disney and eating healthy shit and doing soduku keeping the brain sharp Boomer 401k lol. Sudoku is all they will be able to afford to do. Can't even cover taxes on 8k/year. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-retirement-savings-baby-boomers-125500443.html According to the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, the estimated median retirement savings for Baby Boomer is $202,000. Based on the 4% Rule, this would yield an annual retirement income of $8,000 per year. Depending on your perspective, this portfolio size could be more or less than you expected. Transamerica also found that about 45% of Baby Boomers have saved $250,000 or more. Further, 40% of Boomers agree with the statement that they have not done enough to save for retirement. Just wait until the boomers to retire from politics. Then we can finally eliminate social security. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 9:46:41 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I do account for those who have given up. I mention the labor force participation rate in every unemployment thread I post in. A lot of states cancelled their "covid emergency order" this year and cut off the extra federal unemployment payments. That forced people back to work. Pre-covid the labor force participation rate was 63.4% and we are currently at 62.3%. That accounts for some of the numbers but it isn't a massive number. Just like the number of houses that banks want to foreclose on but can't is higher than normal but not a massive number. Part of the drop in the labor force participation rate is people doing side work or working for themselves. Those jobs do not get counted by the labor force metric. Every day I run into someone else with a side hustle using Venmo as a payment system. If they aren't reporting their side work to the state and paying in the unemployment insurance premium then they are not counted as in the labor force. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Companies are paying more to higher entry level workers and that is not going to be reversed unless there is a massive recession with unemployment going over 6%. Unemployment is still dropping, meaning companies need to offer even more pay to get people. I do account for those who have given up. I mention the labor force participation rate in every unemployment thread I post in. A lot of states cancelled their "covid emergency order" this year and cut off the extra federal unemployment payments. That forced people back to work. Pre-covid the labor force participation rate was 63.4% and we are currently at 62.3%. That accounts for some of the numbers but it isn't a massive number. Just like the number of houses that banks want to foreclose on but can't is higher than normal but not a massive number. Part of the drop in the labor force participation rate is people doing side work or working for themselves. Those jobs do not get counted by the labor force metric. Every day I run into someone else with a side hustle using Venmo as a payment system. If they aren't reporting their side work to the state and paying in the unemployment insurance premium then they are not counted as in the labor force. Boomers are retiring and some of them early given how the stock market was doing. Some are going to regret that. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 10:10:04 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Better graph - shows the Great Recession. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IUSEHMSUM_chart.png This is a good chart, because it covers supply and demand at the same time. By any measure, housing inventory is at historic lows. Even if demand drops significantly, it'll still take some years for the supply to catch up. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 10:15:08 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When Boomers start dying, should free up some inventory. A version of this resulted in the Japanese housing market going into a 20 year stagnation. Our growth rate is far higher though, so the corresponding effect here remains to be seen. |
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Posted: 6/9/2022 4:33:35 PM EDT
[#41]
Maybe RV prices will come down since gas prices are so high. At least that'd be one housing option.
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Posted: 6/9/2022 8:14:39 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People with money will continue to buy more homes as the market tanks. That's what happened in the late 00s. Back then: Was their rampant inflation? Did food and gas and basically everything go up in multiples of doubles in months? Was their a lag in the supply chain from a global pandemic? |
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Posted: 6/14/2022 4:02:46 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Back then: Was their rampant inflation? Did food and gas and basically everything go up in multiples of doubles in months? Was their a lag in the supply chain from a global pandemic? Sounds more like the 70's. Except I think it will be worse this time. |
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Posted: 6/14/2022 4:44:04 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sounds more like the 70's. Except I think it will be worse this time. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Back then: Was their rampant inflation? Did food and gas and basically everything go up in multiples of doubles in months? Was their a lag in the supply chain from a global pandemic? Sounds more like the 70's. Except I think it will be worse this time. In the mid to late 70's bread, sugar, coffee and meat doubled. Gas nearly doubled |
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