Man, PA more important than I thought.  I figured as long as we get FL, its over.

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After all the dirt is leaked it will look like the Jeb world pic but with Trump

Trump has been gaining here too.

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He certainly has.  Thank God for my money....




Susan is going to screw me over in Maine, but I have hedges, lol

Notice how the GOP states are blue and the Dem states are red? Sure wish we'd go back to that. Democrats are openly embracing Marxism now; they'd probably rather be red again too. Win-win.

The dems are buying everything the media is feeding them.  They believe Georgia, South Carolina and Texas are in play.   Not to mention Ohio.  

The fraud would have to be spectacular for the GOP to lose.  Especially since Trump basically goaded Biden into throwing big oil under the bus in a live debate.

Yep.  Blue is the traditional color of parties well to the Right in the West.  Red being the color of much of the internationalist far-Left (nationalist far-Left tends to use brown) is, of course, well-known.  I'd rather Republicans be Blue than Red, like they once were.  It makes far more sense.  It would not surprise me that the colors were switched because the Democratic Left did not want to be seen for what they were.

Ive been telling people to go to 270towin and play with the EC maps for a month. There’s no national election. It comes down to a few swing states.

It really does.

OH FL, PA, MI, WI.

Those are about the only States that seem to really be bell weather states... Thus why candidates always campaign there so hard.

I think AZ is going Red in November.

As of 10-24-20

https://www.270towin.com/

My optimistic map

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If that is the case, get ready for Congress to decide the winner, because you know there are doing to be a few faithless electors again... But last time most came from Hillary rather than Trump

Aside from New York and Oregon that map is believable.

I was taking a look at the polling averages and if the averages were reflective of the results, this is what the map would look like, a solid Biden victory.  Anything that has Biden underpolling at all is just an overwhelming defeat for Trump.  



If we have the polls underpolling Trump across the board by about a quarter of the value of the average margin of error, this is what the map looks like.  Still a Biden victory, by slimmer margins, although AZ would almost be a toss-up in this scenario, going Democrat by only the slightest of margins.  PA is the only other one kinda within reach, assuming minimal or no shenanigans (unlikely) in this scenario.  He'd need PA to force a draw and an election by Congress, and both to win outright.



If we have the polls underpolling Trump across the board by about half of the value of the average margin of error, this is what the map looks like.  Pennsylvania in this scenario becomes the key, and I think the recent rulings and shenanigans might be enough in this scenario to make PA go Democrat, which would give Biden the win.  NV is almost a toss-up here, and MN and WI are both within reach absent shenanigans in this scenario, so doing a little better in a couple of those would negate any need to get PA.



If the polls were to be underpolling Trump by about 3/4 the value of the average margin of error across the board, the map looks like this.  Shenanigans might still be enough to push MN, PA, and NV into Democratic victories, which would then give Biden the election, but absent such an impact, Trump wins.



Now, if the polls were to be underpolling Trump by the maximum value of the average margin of error across the board, the map then looks like this.  Clear Trump victory.  If the polls were to be underpolling Trump beyond the margin of error, then Trump wins.  He'd likely get MI, then, and CO, VA, and NH would possibly be in play at that point.



If he were to be underpolling by 1 1/4 times the value of the average margin of error across the board, the map would look like this.  I think this is pushing the boundary of any plausible victory, although VA, ME, and NH are all Democrat in this scenario by under 3 points.  NM seem to be a really tough nut to crack at this point.



I do think he's underpolling to some degree in many if not most States (perhaps even all of them).  What is important is the degree to which this is the case, and specifically to what degree in which particular States.  It wouldn't be uniform like in the hypotheticals above.  That'll determine whether he wins or loses, IMO.  He needs to be underpolling by more than 1/4 of the margin of error, and perhaps by half or more of that value, in multiple States to win.  I did think it was interesting to see what the results would be to look incrementally at the effects of underpolling on the outcome.

This with NV red

it's a tough path for a Republican to 270...

That this isn’t “laugh out loud, get the f*** out of here with that s***“ based on some of the polling should scare everyone. Everyone is so sure the polling error is against Trump and/or the undecideds break for Trump. If both those things aren’t true it is a train wreck.

MSM lies. Since forever. As do the polls. They'll start tightening up towards reality around the weekend.

Chicago Communists ruin it for everyone. They gave us Obama.

Gtfo with that shit ass map

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Best case.



Realistic case.

Based on current state polling this is the map that we will have at the end of election day:

Texas may be in play if Georgia is so your map could be accurate.

In my prediction Trump becomes the first Republican to win The White House without Ohio.   During the night the media becomes orgasmic when Trump has lost Ohio, then suddenly their orgasmic feels are crushed as Trump rallies in Michigan, holds PA, and Arizona just doesn't go their way.    

That would be funny if NY state goes red.

I believe NY will turn red for Trumps 2nd term, NYC is burning people hate it there with recent prorests and riots.

Kinda weird when he is much stronger in Ohio than Wi, Mi, Pa, and FL.

That map is not going to happen.

You guys aren’t even trying anymore.

So trump wins the entire rust belt but loses NC, GA, and Arizona?

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I calculate in a surprise.  Last election I had Wisconsin and PA.   I have friends in Ohio and they don't believe Ohio red will beat Ohio union blue this time because of Goodyear and GM.

Funny how the concern trolls are complete new guys.

Sorry, Biden by 5% and warner by 8-10+.

My area is fairly conservative and I don't see the Trump love. We have New Obama running for our house rep and the DNC is blanketing our area with mailers and TV ads.
Va voters are usually lazy and the D's were motivated to take Va and now that they have us, that enthusiasm on their side has not subsided.