Pretty much all phases of spaceflight are dangerous.

They would have been passengers versus commander or pilot.

Apply this reasoning to the decision to launch with known issues on the spacecraft.  I believe the decision to launch was driven largely by political pressure.

The flip side is that if NASA was this risk-averse for the Challenger and Columbia, those astronaut could be alive today.

How much of the Apollo timeline (including launches) was driven by political pressure?  I don't have an answer but my assumption is >0%.

Again I'm not defending NASA on this....I think they made the wrong decision to launch....but I don't believe politics is a new variable in the decision making there.

Ahead of Starliner’s return, NASA will host a pre-departure news conference at 12 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 4, from the agency’s Johnson Space Center in Houston: https://t.co/Hxn4ZoYDDN

— NASA's Johnson Space Center (@NASA_Johnson) September 3, 2024

3 of 4 fatal in-flight spacecraft accidents have been in the return phase.  But the sample size is pretty small, and no manned spacecraft has flown anywhere near the number of times that Soyuz and the Shuttle have.  Those two happen to be the only ones with fatal accidents in flight.  Mercury arguably wasn’t any safer.  We just quit flying it after six short missions.

In 1961, President John F. Kennedy challenged the United States to land a person on the moon before the end of the decade. On September 12, 1962, he delivered a speech at Rice University in Houston, Texas, titled "We choose to go to the Moon". In the speech, Kennedy declared that the United States should take a leading role in space exploration and commit to landing a person on the moon and returning them safely to Earth before the end of the decade.

Also in that speech

"one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win."

There is no higher political schedule pressure than that. The entire program was under the highest schedule pressure possible from the highest position in office.



The only issue on the table before launch was a He leak. It was decided that was a manageable issue. It's proven to be a manageable issue even with the leaks that cropped up after launch and this ridiculously long flight extension. The He leaks are unrelated to the thruster issue. The He legs identified do not match the thrusters identified. Boeing pulled a thruster that had been sitting wet with hypers for a couple years, ran it through environment matched acent, docking and decent profiles test and beat on it some more. It was still working when they took it apart and found the teflon seal degradation. Any issue with any ship can crop up at any time. The what if scenarios apply to any ship no mater the brand name on the can.

This is all political posturing because the head office is the VP and guess who is on the ballot. Why does anyone think the old man was there for the media telecon?

I've said this about Apollo before and I'll probably say it again.

They were really pushing the technology of the time to the absolute limit and they were lucky that it wasn't a disaster. We definitely do not live in a reality where the Russians could have pulled off a manned moon landing around that time either. N-1 clearly didn't work and there was no way the Russians were going to make it work.

Now technology is much improved and for the time being we don't have to rush off anywhere because some politician said something.

Yep....as long as NASA is a government agency politics are a factor.  Hell SpaceX isn't a government agency and politics are a factor....they can't launch anything without .gov approval (legally anyway).  They want .gov contracts, licenses...etc....they are playing politics to some degree.  I'd imagine they have more leeway than most right now, considering they basically own the market on US based launches....that is obviously subject to change with more / less competition.

You left out “make a surprise and safe landing in Iran”  (or China)

There is always a political consideration.  Always.

Hopefully safety has the priority.

That is my take.  There is enough doubt on the craft’s condition that they’re not just going with “we hope it hold together this time until we get it on the ground”.

I think that fact was demonstrated by the Challenger disaster over 40 years ago.

I caught about 39 minutes of the  NASA press conference.  Actual duration unknown.

The one SpaceX IVA suit on the ISS fits Suni.  Another that fits Butch will come up on Crew-9.

The makeshift seats in the Crew-8 cargo area if needed for an emergency departure would fit Suni and Butch  using no suits.   The Starliner suits will return on Starliner.

NASA’s Boeing Starliner Mission Landing Criteria, Timeline

Read link for details

What are the Vegas odds on a successful return?

Successful, as in the correct landing area and vehicle condition that would have supported safe return for astronauts? I would put it at 90+%

The hatch on @BoeingSpace's #Starliner spacecraft was closed today at 1:29 p.m. ET and the spacecraft is set to undock from @Space_Station at 6:04 p.m. ET Friday, Sept. 6.

Follow the agency’s live coverage: https://t.co/KtuhbXtfZv

— NASA Commercial Crew (@Commercial_Crew) September 5, 2024

I've seen that movie....and it sucked



In reality, I'd put money on it landing in one piece

Well... Today's the day.

Around 6 pm EST decoupling.

Undocking will be live streamed.  

Starliner is undocking and returning tonight to White Sands Facility in New Mexico

Upon release of the Starliner spacecraft at approximately 6:04 p.m. EDT, springs will push the spacecraft away from the space station. Starliner will then fire its troublesome thrusters to fly up and over the space station before preforming its deorbit burn. Its the thrusters that caused the concern about the spacecraft.

Starliner is expected to land just after midnight Eastern time at White Sands Space Harbor in New Mexico.

Sounds like a questionable maneuver with those funky thrusters.

Whatever it does, it is reported to be the quickest (assumed safest) way to get away from the ISS.  

The 'breakaway' maneuver does not entail the spacecraft flying around the ISS.
They are going to back it up quite far away from the ISS, use RCS to orient the business end and fire the braking thrusters from there and then dump the trunk and basically let gravity and aerodynamics take over, with a bit of help (hopefully) from the RCs thrusters to keep it pointed at the optimal entry angle.

That's how I understand it anyways.

For those near White Sands, El Paso TX  and far southeastern AZ here is a thread on viewing the re-entry.

The bomb drops at 6 eastern,  right?

Less than 20 minutes until they try undocking.

Disabled comments. HA.

5 mins to undock

The commentator on NASA's feed just called Crew Dragon an "orbital Uber.".

#Starliner undocked from @Space_Station at 6:04 p.m. ET. Landing at White Sands Space Harbor in New Mexico is scheduled for just after 12 a.m. ET on Sept. 7.

Boeing Space  (@BoeingSpace) September 6, 2024

There's some pretty cool thruster firing footage going on

I'm just glad to see it successfully backing away from the station. Guess the metaphorical drive shaft wasn't busted.

When do they close the hatch?

Are there are any new NOTAMs for WSMR?

How big is the restricted area for the reentry, anything off post? Their target is twice the size of Rhode Island, so any bets on inside/outside the boundaries? Or if they X-ring the Trinity memorial? Taco Bell should've offered free tacos if they hit the obelisk.

Kharn

Glad to see it didn't destroy the ISS.

Thanks for finding that Chokey.  I will add it to the re-entry thread if you have not already.

#Starliner now continues its return to Earth. Our next update will be at ~10:50 p.m. ET when the landing broadcast begins: https://t.co/vKgNLD7N54

Boeing Space  (@BoeingSpace) September 6, 2024

Will the capsule pass over the lower 48 before it reenters and lands? It would be net to try and see it pass over similar to watching the ISS flyovers.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the problematic OMAC thrusters will be used later to maneuver for de-orbit

Appears all the passes this evening will be unlit....

@kharn
I am guessing some of these...

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