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Posted: 5/20/2024 3:57:11 PM EDT
[#1]
The latest CME (directed away from earth) looks like a beast.
These are experimental:   
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Posted: 5/20/2024 4:00:52 PM EDT
[#2]
In to see where this goes
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Posted: 5/20/2024 9:20:45 PM EDT
[#3]
I'm just here for the pretty colors in the sky. The descent into Mad Max and cannibalism is just a pleasant bonus.
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Posted: 5/22/2024 11:07:32 AM EDT
[#4]
Large Filament
May 22, 2024 @ 01:55 UTC A large solar filament is currently stretching across the southeast quadrant. It is so long that is measures over 350,000 km in length and is transitioning into a prominence off the southeast limb. Every now and then these plasma rich features can become magnetically unstable and collapse leading to odd shaped coronal mass ejections. For now it remains anchored in place. 
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Posted: 5/23/2024 10:16:33 AM EDT
[#5]
Two Events At Once
May 23, 2024 @ 02:35 UTC (UPDATED) Quite a busy past hour on the Sun. In addition to the prominence eruption in progress off the southeast limb, an M4.2 solar flare was just observed around AR 3679 nearing the west limb at 02:16 UTC (May 23). So far it does not appear that an Earth directed CME will be associated with either event, but additional imagery will be required to make a final determination. Stay tuned for more updates.  UPDATE: Coronagraph imagery following the filament eruption early Thursday morning (May 23 / UTC) in the SE quadrant is showing that a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. The trajectory appears to be well off the Sun-Earth line, so no major impacts should be expected. A wave of plasma can be seen in the northwest quadrant beginning around 03:00 UTC (May 23). This appears to be fairly minor and should have no Earth impacts. 
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Posted: 5/23/2024 10:17:17 AM EDT
[#6]
Multiple Eruptions
May 23, 2024 @ 11:45 UTC A number of events facing Earth during the early part of Thursday (5/23/2024). The first was a filament eruption beginning around 00:00 UTC in the southeast quadrant. That event produced a southeasterly directed CME that appears off the Sun-Earth line. Another event, an M4.2 solar flare around AR 3679 was detected at 02:16 UTC. A second CME became visible after 04:00 UTC leaving the southwest limb area and also appears to be off line. Additional eruptions were observed in the southern hemisphere and looks to be associated with fainter CME in the latest coronagraph imagery. Additional updates will be provided whenever necessary.  Multiple Eruptions on the Sun (5/23/2024) - SolarHam.com |
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Posted: 5/23/2024 4:38:07 PM EDT
[#7]
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Posted: 5/24/2024 6:01:59 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By motoguzzi: So how many magnets do we need to buy to counteract? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By motoguzzi: Originally Posted By budasc: No, that would be the weakening magnetosphere which is also responsible for our climate changes. Low latitude auroras happened maybe 14 times since 1550 all because of strong geomagnetic storms. In 2023 and 2024 already at least 10 times and counting most times with only minor geomagnetic storms. So how many magnets do we need to buy to counteract? |
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Posted: 5/24/2024 7:58:59 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By budasc: So I read somewhere, they were talking about populating Mars and how they were going to somehow going to provide the magnetosphere, and I'm thinking if you have that power you'd better put it into place here on Earth because the speed that our magnetosphere is weakening we won't need a Carrington level event to take down the entire grid. We should not have had that level of geomagnetic storms from a few x1-x3 flares, the two larger flares missed Earth or the glancing blow was weak. Auroras were seen in places that didn't even see them during the Carrington (x40-80) event. I've been watching the results of the flares for 14 years daily and I've seen a huge change. It's getting closer, the grid's going down, prepare. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By budasc: Originally Posted By motoguzzi: Originally Posted By budasc: No, that would be the weakening magnetosphere which is also responsible for our climate changes. Low latitude auroras happened maybe 14 times since 1550 all because of strong geomagnetic storms. In 2023 and 2024 already at least 10 times and counting most times with only minor geomagnetic storms. So how many magnets do we need to buy to counteract? The reality is it is only a matter of time. Sooner or later, the grid will be taken down by a really big CME or 3 Humanity has built a house of cards that cant function without the grid. Well it can, but it would be at the 1820 level of existence after 90% of the population dies from lack of fuel, meds, medical care, food, and heat and resulting uncontrolled violence that will result when people realize when the grid goes down, it isn't coming back for years, if ever. |
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Posted: 5/24/2024 8:10:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Mach]
[#10]
I just checked, the big active area 3664 that was responsible for the big CMEs last week is now very very small.
So unless that things gets big again, it probably is not going to produce any light shows or humanity changing events. It had been 7 billion square kilometers and is now 15 million. Size does matter. |
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Posted: 5/24/2024 2:49:18 PM EDT
[#11]
AR 3663 Returns
May 24, 2024 @ 11:45 UTC AR 3663 from the previous rotation is now turning into view from off the northeast limb. It should be reassigned AR 3691 later today. So far it appears to be stable with only minor C-Flares detected, but will get a better understanding of what it is capable of during the next day or so. Elsewhere, low level M-Flares have been detected around both AR 3679 nearing the west limb and AR 3685 in the southwest quadrant. A minor eruption of plasma observed on Thursday in the southern hemisphere produced a faint CME that is heading mostly south of the Sun-Earth line. NOAA/SWPC expect it to possibly pass close to our planet by May 26th. Only a minor geomagnetic disturbance should be expected. 
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Posted: 5/24/2024 2:55:54 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By budasc: So I read somewhere, they were talking about populating Mars and how they were going to somehow going to provide the magnetosphere, and I'm thinking if you have that power you'd better put it into place here on Earth because the speed that our magnetosphere is weakening we won't need a Carrington level event to take down the entire grid. We should not have had that level of geomagnetic storms from a few x1-x3 flares, the two larger flares missed Earth or the glancing blow was weak. Auroras were seen in places that didn't even see them during the Carrington (x40-80) event. I've been watching the results of the flares for 14 years daily and I've seen a huge change. It's getting closer, the grid's going down, prepare. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By budasc: Originally Posted By motoguzzi: Originally Posted By budasc: No, that would be the weakening magnetosphere which is also responsible for our climate changes. Low latitude auroras happened maybe 14 times since 1550 all because of strong geomagnetic storms. In 2023 and 2024 already at least 10 times and counting most times with only minor geomagnetic storms. So how many magnets do we need to buy to counteract? The thing with Mars, is it's not really going to be an entire magnetosphere, it's more like putting a wedge in front of Mars to help divert and lessen what impacts the surface to more manageable levels. |
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Posted: 5/24/2024 6:44:51 PM EDT
[#13]
 How We Know The Big Sunspots Are Coming Back |
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Posted: 5/24/2024 10:21:15 PM EDT
[#14]
Sooo, is this coming?
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Posted: 5/25/2024 7:56:21 PM EDT
[#15]
Space Weather Update
May 25, 2024 @ 15:30 UTC Here is an updated look at AR 3691 (ex 3663) as it moves further into view from off the northeast limb. Magnetically speaking it does not appear to be too complex and with the amount of white froth (faculae) present, you can tell it has decayed heavily while on the farside of the Sun. C-Flares will likely be possible with a lower chance for an isolated moderate M-Flare in the short term. AR 3679, the source of numerous C-Flares and low level M-Flares the past few days is now located behind the west limb and out of direct Earth view. Elsewhere, AR 3685 and 3686 are producing occasional minor C-Flares. 
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Posted: 5/25/2024 8:20:11 PM EDT
[#16]
I kinda miss 3663.
 
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Posted: 5/25/2024 8:22:53 PM EDT
[#17]
Good
Fuck this gay planet |
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Posted: 5/26/2024 6:01:20 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryNo, that looks like fire. The 12,000 year cycle would be mountains of water. Take note that the scientist are waiting to see a star that only appears every 80 or so years then disappears again for another 80 years. That is what is now called a micro nova. And we know now that many stars nova repeatedly, not destroying the star. We also only know what we've been able to see for the short time man has been on Earth. Do all stars have micro novas? Has our star done it in the past? It checks all the boxes and we are going to fine out relatively soon as that 12,000 year cycle is upon us. More than likely in the 2040s. I don't expect to be here for that event. Just remember, everyone here is a direct descendant of someone who survived the last event. The is hope.
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Posted: 5/27/2024 11:46:22 AM EDT
[Last Edit: bkpkr]
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By L_JE: I kinda miss 3663. https://photos.smugmug.com/Events/Solar-Storms-of-May-2024/i-DWkgRdt/1/DBb6q68SxDdvMfrCvRzm3GtkvLFVkNghhn2KVwW52/X3/DSC_5468B3%20-%204128-X3.jpg That’s such an awesome shot. Represents something that was pretty epic in my opinion. May never see that again in our lifetimes. Not at these latitudes. I remain optimistic though, suns still popping off X class flares, but this latest one doesn’t have us in its crosshairs. 3663, 3664…whatever it takes.   Attached File |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 9:44:16 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bkpkr: That’s such an awesome shot. Represents something that was pretty epic in my opinion. May never see that again in our lifetimes. Not at these latitudes. I remain optimistic though, suns still popping off X class flares, but this latest one doesn’t have us in its crosshairs. 3663, 3664…whatever it takes. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/125849/IMG_3387_jpeg-3224847.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bkpkr: Originally Posted By L_JE: I kinda miss 3663. https://photos.smugmug.com/Events/Solar-Storms-of-May-2024/i-DWkgRdt/1/DBb6q68SxDdvMfrCvRzm3GtkvLFVkNghhn2KVwW52/X3/DSC_5468B3%20-%204128-X3.jpg That’s such an awesome shot. Represents something that was pretty epic in my opinion. May never see that again in our lifetimes. Not at these latitudes. I remain optimistic though, suns still popping off X class flares, but this latest one doesn’t have us in its crosshairs. 3663, 3664…whatever it takes. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/125849/IMG_3387_jpeg-3224847.JPG Thanks. It's a more difficult photo than I realized at the time, and got very lucky with it. I tried to get a similar photo of 3691, but upper atmosphere winds, the position of the sun, the position of the clouds, regardless of my inability to get a good focus on the sunspots, the photo attempts just weren't worth anything. Ok, they were worth something in as much as they made May 17th all the more special. And this coming on the heels of the lunar cycle that brought us the eclipse, even more so. I don't think I've ever seen a sunspot/facula/granulation photo with some type of foreground context. I mainly just wanted to see if it could be done. So, I walked downtown, a bit slower to get moving that I should have, because I missed the colinearity with the more prominent building features I was hoping to capture, and short of a ladder truck, no way to chase that angle after I missed it, but waited through sunset to see what else might go on. I didn't even think about the auroras, completely dismissing them as a possibility here in lower Alabama, and even forgot about where the moon would be ... packed up the tripod after a couple dozen photos, and my dog and I then walked over to the brewery. When I saw the aurora photos start coming in, I made an abrupt exit for darker skies, away from downtown. With 3691 coming around, I might try to see if I can get a person in there as a foreground subject. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 10:50:17 PM EDT
[#21]
May 28, 2024 @ 10:10 UTC
Returning sunspot region 3664 was reassigned AR 3697 and is currently producing a steady dose of minor C-Flares as it turns back into view. The latest NOAA/SWPC update lists a 60% chance for moderate M-Flares and a 30% chance for a stronger X-Flare. AR 3691 (ex 3663) in the northeast quadrant and of course AR 3697 (3664) would be the most likely sources. 
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Posted: 5/29/2024 6:00:09 AM EDT
[#22]
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USA
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Posted: 5/29/2024 6:07:55 AM EDT
[#23]
Had a surge Monday that tripped my UPS and toasted a camera power supply. Very unusual.
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Posted: 5/29/2024 6:47:48 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Heartbreaker1373: Somebody the other day tried to tell me it was global warming and/or climate change causing the auroras to be visible farther south than normal  Somebody told me it was the CERN weather machine and / or chemtrails. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 9:53:46 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bkpkr: Never heard of this phenomenon before.  Wow. That's some amazingly intense airglow! I'll pick up airglow from time to time, but there's also some twilight, but there is also some lunar twilight (I don't know what else to call it) where the OTH moon causes some really weird green diffraction, or something. Maybe it's something akin to the "green flash" out at sea, I don't know. But, it shows up from time to time. The first photo is the OTH moon, a bit after moonset, and before getting fogged out. The second might be some combination of OTH lunar twilight, solar pre-twilight and airglow (I've caught these green tones out as GSDNP before, but never quite as pronounced as this). The last two are most likely airglow.     This is an ad hoc panorama in both azimuth and time. The colors are brighter than what would be seen to the eye, but it I think it's a neat illustration of the subtleties of the regular night and twilight sky - when sane people are normally asleep. I never intended for a panorama when I took these photos, but now that I've seen the concept, I'll probably try to do something like this in the future with more attention to the details needed for a more successful composite... [in the right hand twilight portion, you can just make out the headlamps of two climbing parties making their way up the glacier...] 
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Posted: 5/29/2024 2:22:57 PM EDT
[#26]
3691, now having rotated into the middle of our view...
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Posted: 5/29/2024 2:27:59 PM EDT
[#27]
May 29, 2024 @ 03:10 UTC
A comparison of AR 3664 on May 13th as it approached the southwest limb and on May 29th as it returns into view off the southeast limb. Clearly the region shrunk in size while transiting the farside of the Sun, however it retains some magnetic complexity and will remain a threat for a solar flare above the M5.0 threshold. The region produced numerous mid to upper level C-Flares and one low level M-Flare during the past 24 hours. Imagery by SDO/HMI. 
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Posted: 5/29/2024 2:28:35 PM EDT
[#28]
May 29, 2024 @ 15:45 UTC
A long duration X1.4 solar flare was just observed around AR 3697 peaking at 14:37 UTC (May 29). The event is associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 878 km/s. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now just becoming visible in updated imagery and should be mostly directed towards the east. An additional update will be provided should an Earth directed component be associated. 
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Posted: 5/29/2024 2:42:27 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DaGoose: May 29, 2024 @ 15:45 UTC A long duration X1.4 solar flare was just observed around AR 3697 peaking at 14:37 UTC (May 29). The event is associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 878 km/s. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now just becoming visible in updated imagery and should be mostly directed towards the east. An additional update will be provided should an Earth directed component be associated. https://solarham.com/pictures/2024/may29_2024_x1.4.jpg Mediocre. Less than mediocre. Not even a Great ValueTM version of 3663. Do better, 3697. Do better. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 7:51:02 PM EDT
[#30]
May 29, 2024 @ 19:30 UTC
Good afternoon. Solar activity continues at high levels today with AR 3691 (ex 3663) getting into the flare action as well. A few M-Flares including an M5.7 event at 18:41 UTC (May 29) were detected. So far none of those flares appear to be eruptive. Speaking of eruptive, the long duration X1.4 flare event around AR 3697 (ex 3664) did produce an energetic CME that was directed mostly towards the east and away from Earth. Only a glancing blow at best should be expected within 72 hours. The chances for an Earth directed eruption will increase with each passing day as the active sunspot region turns into a better geoeffective position. 
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Posted: 5/30/2024 8:42:26 AM EDT
[#31]
May 29, 2024 @ 21:50 UTC
NOAA/SWPC appears to show that the CME associated with the X1.4 solar flare earlier today will pass close enough to Earth to possibly generate moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming beginning May 31st. This will be interesting to see if this unfolds as predicted. Aurora sky watchers should be alert beginning Friday. CME tracking page click HERE 
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USA
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Posted: 5/30/2024 9:33:05 AM EDT
[#32]
Bump
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Posted: 5/30/2024 5:47:37 PM EDT
[#33]
May 30, 2024 @ 20:00 UTC
A quieter day on the Sun so far on Thursday with only a single low level M-Flare detected around AR 3691. This region (3691) decayed very slightly during the past 24 hours, but continues to evolve as it transits the northern hemisphere near center disk. The other region of interest, AR 3697, did show some separation between the lead and trailing sections of the group, but during the past 6 hours new flux emergence was evident. Both regions will remain a threat for at least moderate solar flares during the next 24 hours. In other news, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been pointing south between -6 and -7nT for the past 5 hours. Unsettled (Kp3) to Active (Kp4) geomagnetic conditions will be likely for the remainder of today (UTC). A reminder that a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on Wednesday is predicted to deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field sometime on Friday. A geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect. 
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Posted: 5/31/2024 6:27:54 PM EDT
[#34]
May 31, 2024 @ 22:15 UTC
An impulsive X1.1 solar flare was detected around AR 3697 (3664) at 22:03 UTC (May 31). The quick rising flare will likely not be the source of a noteworthy eruption, however additional updates will be provided if necessary. This is now the 48th X-Flare of the current Solar Cycle 25, leaving us just one behind the total amount of X-Flares during the entirety of the previous Solar Cycle 24. 
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Posted: 6/1/2024 6:40:05 AM EDT
[#35]
June 1, 2024 @ 10:20 UTC
Good morning. How about another X-Flare! The latest event measuring X1.4 was just detected around AR 3697 (3664) at 08:48 UTC (Jun 1). Much like the X-Flare yesterday evening, a CME does not appear to be associated with this event. Some dimming was observed to the north of 3697 before this event, but coronagraph imagery does not seem to reveal any plasma leaving the Sun. The flare producing machine is now in a good location for potential Earth directed eruptions. And with this now being the 49th X-Flare of the current solar cycle, we have tied the X-Flare total from the previous solar cycle 24. When will #50 take place? Stay tuned to find out. 
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Posted: 6/1/2024 10:08:48 AM EDT
[#36]
June 1, 2024 @ 11:40 UTC
It appears that the CME observed on May 29th finally grazed past the ACE spacecraft this morning just after 09:30 UTC (Jun 1). This will be mostly a miss downstream of Earth and geomagnetic storming is unlikely, at least in the short term based on the current data. Further updates will be provided should conditions change. 
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Posted: 6/2/2024 7:28:29 AM EDT
[#37]
June 1, 2024 @ 19:55 UTC (UPDATED)
Active sunspot region 3697 (ex 3664) continues to produce strong solar flares. The latest event was an impulsive X1.0 solar flare at 18:36 UTC (6/1/2024). This was quickly followed by a long duration M7.3 event at 19:40 UTC. The M7 flare is responsible for an asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be Earth directed. A passage past our planet will be possible within 48-72 hours. Geomagnetic storming may be possible by Monday or Tuesday. Further updates will be added on SolarHam.com regarding a tracking model once one is available.   X1.0 + M7.3 Solar Flares (6/1/2024) |
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Posted: 6/2/2024 7:28:49 AM EDT
[#38]
June 2, 2024 @ 10:00 UTC
It goes without saying that May 2024 was a great month on the Sun. Large sunspots and large solar flares dominated our attention. We also reached a new high for both the solar flux index and sunspot number count for solar cycle 25. The sunspot number average for May 2024 is 171.7. This is the highest count since September 2002 during cycle 23. The solar flux index average for last month is 187.7, also a new high for the current solar cycle. 
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Posted: 6/2/2024 6:44:05 PM EDT
[#39]
June 2, 2024 @ 13:10 UTC
The latest NOAA/SWPC update explains that the halo CME observed soon after the long duration M7 solar flare may actually be related to farsided activity and not Earth directed. While some plasma appears to have released following the Earth facing event, the halo signature may be unrelated. If so, the prospects for geomagnetic storming just diminished significantly. More to follow once any other updates are officially announced. 
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Posted: 6/2/2024 6:44:16 PM EDT
[#40]
June 2, 2024 @ 21:10 UTC
A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch was added for June 4th. An eruption following an M7.3 solar flare on Saturday apparently ejected enough material to possibly pass Earth and generate a storm. Aurora sky watchers at higher latitudes should be alert beginning Monday night and into Tuesday. |
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Posted: 6/3/2024 11:04:54 AM EDT
[#41]
June 3, 2024 @ 14:50 UTC
A beautiful eruption of plasma registering as an M4.8 solar flare was just observed and involved both AR 3691 and 3695 in the northwest quadrant. Somewhat of a coronal mass ejection (CME) will be likely, however judging by the way the eruption unfolded, the trajectory should be mostly north of the Sun-Earth line. This event is in addition to two other M-Flares today so far, an M3.2 and M2.8 were observed around AR 3697 in the southern hemisphere. More details to follow regarding the possible CME whenever additional imagery is available. |
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Posted: 6/3/2024 12:41:26 PM EDT
[#42]
Pic for the above post.
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Posted: 6/3/2024 2:27:27 PM EDT
[#43]
Thanks for the updates, it's appreciated.
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Posted: 6/3/2024 3:45:56 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By robmkivseries70: Thanks for the updates, it's appreciated. |
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Posted: 6/3/2024 9:41:16 PM EDT
[#45]
June 4, 2024 @ 00:20 UTC
It appears that a CME passed Earth around 23:00 UTC (Jun 3). A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 61 nT was recorded by the Boulder magnetometer. The minor (G1) geomagnetic storm threshold was reached at 23:59 UTC. Although the solar wind speed is not terribly high, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been shifting wildly from from a north to south pointing orientation. Enhanced activity including minor storming could persist over the next several hours. ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2024 Jun 03 2359 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-0000 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor 
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Posted: 6/3/2024 10:14:35 PM EDT
[#46]
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USA
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Posted: 6/3/2024 10:28:02 PM EDT
[#47]
Our grid may take a shit, but look at the pretty lights.
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Posted: 6/3/2024 10:44:07 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lawmonkey: Our grid may take a shit, but look at the pretty lights. Aaaaand? |
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Posted: 6/5/2024 9:20:04 AM EDT
[#49]
June 5, 2024 @ 10:00 UTC
Good morning. Solar activity continues at moderate levels today with an M3.5 solar flare detected around AR 3697 at 08:56 UTC (Jun 5). The active region will remain a threat for solar flares above the M5.0 threshold while it rotates across the southwest quadrant. A number of minor C-Flares have been detected off the southeast limb, possibly around old AR 3683 which should turn back into view over the next several days. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed in coronagraph imagery over the past few days. 
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Posted: 6/5/2024 9:37:35 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Levi24:[/b] Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Levi24:[/b] Somebody told me it was the CERN weather machine and / or chemtrails.  
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