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2/18/2010 5:46:11 PM EDT
Well...what says the Hive?

I'm saying that Israel hits Iran in 6 months or less.

Hax
2/18/2010 5:46:26 PM EDT
[#1]
Two weeks.
2/18/2010 5:47:50 PM EDT
[#2]
Its already to late, hitting Iran wont solve the problem, Iran knows this is coming and has taken counter messures
2/18/2010 5:48:44 PM EDT
[#3]
Give me a break.

Israel is not going to hit Iran.  Every year someone's claiming "Oooh, Israel's going to hit Iran this summer!".

If anyone's going to do anything about Iran it's going to need to be a coalition including the US and excluding Israel (beyond a support/intelligence role).
2/18/2010 5:49:44 PM EDT
[#4]
If Israel decides that the IAEA is correct and Iran is building a nuclear warhead, you can bet it'll be sooner rather than later. They can't afford to have a neighbor who doesn't believe that they have the right to exist attain the technology that could make that dream a reality.

2/18/2010 5:50:57 PM EDT
[#5]
When they drop bombs.
2/18/2010 5:51:43 PM EDT
[#6]
It has been pointed out many times before.  THEY CAN'T!

They can do ONE big conventional strike, ONCE.  Or they could toss a few Jerhicos and whatever sub-launched cruise missles at them, but an Israeli nuclear release only creates more problems for them.


I would pay more attention to the behind the scenes stuff, or stuff similar to what you saw in Dubai yesterday.  This will be an intelligence war if anything.  Eliminate top officials, create instability at the top, force stabilizing forces to be brought in, etc, etc.  A democratic and non-secular revolution would be great.  I hate Iran, but I can't say that I hate Iranians.  (the non-durka durka ones.  i.e. the ones you see beating up the cops in the streets during protests and think that America is cool)




Or get someone else to fight them


Sorry to smash all of `yalls end-time fantasies
2/18/2010 5:51:49 PM EDT
[#7]
Unless Iran is about to launch a nuclear warhead I doubt they are going to do it. And it would probably be done with a Jericho missile at that point.

Hopefully Iran get nailed before it gets to that point.
2/18/2010 5:52:38 PM EDT
[#8]
WHEN Israel finally takes action, it might just be nuclear.

Either way, get ready for $10 a gallon gas the next day.

2/18/2010 5:53:35 PM EDT
[#9]
They already are, off the books so to speak.

Look for missing persons and accidents in iran's future.
2/18/2010 5:56:17 PM EDT
[#10]
Israel did send two naval vessels to the gulf...
2/18/2010 6:01:54 PM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
It has been pointed out many times before.  THEY CAN'T!

They can do ONE big conventional strike, ONCE.  





June 7, 1981.
2/18/2010 6:03:31 PM EDT
[#12]
Probably won't happen.
2/18/2010 6:03:58 PM EDT
[#13]
Apparently Russia is planning to go through with their SAM sale to Iran again. Guess they are not getting enough goodies from Obama.

Who knows if it will really happen through. More of a political bargaining chip.
2/18/2010 6:05:25 PM EDT
[#14]
Quoted:
It has been pointed out many times before.  THEY CAN'T!

They can do ONE big conventional strike, ONCE.  Or they could toss a few Jerhicos and whatever sub-launched cruise missles at them, but an Israeli nuclear release only creates more problems for them.


I would pay more attention to the behind the scenes stuff, or stuff similar to what you saw in Dubai yesterday.  This will be an intelligence war if anything.  Eliminate top officials, create instability at the top, force stabilizing forces to be brought in, etc, etc.  A democratic and non-secular revolution would be great.  I hate Iran, but I can't say that I hate Iranians.  (the non-durka durka ones.  i.e. the ones you see beating up the cops in the streets during protests and think that America is cool)

I'd count things like the Dubai hit as 'hitting Iran'...but that's just me.

Hax




Or get someone else to fight them


Sorry to smash all of `yalls end-time fantasies


2/18/2010 6:06:15 PM EDT
[#15]
Quoted:
Quoted:
It has been pointed out many times before.  THEY CAN'T!

They can do ONE big conventional strike, ONCE.  





June 7, 1981.




Yeah, but they built that target ON TOP of the ground.

These are deep.  Very deep and hardened.  Also widely distributed.

Osirak was still operational close to operational.  It was just a setback.  I am not downplaying the bravery and the accuracy of the airstrike, but it took something like 76 USAF F-16 sorties to totally finish the job during GW1.
2/18/2010 6:07:10 PM EDT
[#16]
87 days
2/18/2010 6:10:49 PM EDT
[#17]
I'm not convinced it's gonna happen now.  I think a breakout involving Hezb, Hamas and Syria will happen much sooner than the other scenario.

Assad wants the GH back in the worst way....and it's gonna backfire on him.

HH
2/18/2010 6:13:52 PM EDT
[#18]
Certain iranians will discover that certain household items and city fixtures can randomly become explosive.

Arab scientists will struggle to define this new scientific theory of REC, Random Explosive Conversion.

Damndest thing, I'll tell ya.
2/18/2010 6:17:05 PM EDT
[#19]





Quoted:



Well...what says the Hive?





I'm saying that Israel hits Iran in 6 months or less.





Hax



If Britain doesn't hit Israel first over the Dubai hit.  If I was GBR I'd be moving my carriers and getting SAS out of bed.





 
2/18/2010 6:31:07 PM EDT
[#20]
Look at a map.



Israel can't air-strike Iran.  Even with in-flight refueling they'd have to fly over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and that won't happen. Obama would never allow it over Iraq. Nor would the Saudis.

2/18/2010 6:31:48 PM EDT
[#21]
Not soon enough
2/18/2010 6:32:03 PM EDT
[#22]
It will be a surprise response. The Israelis are thinkers and will do what you do not expect.

I'd bet on them...based upon history.

All you Israel haters need to remember how many times they've fooled 'em all.
2/18/2010 6:33:42 PM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
Look at a map.

Israel can't air-strike Iran.  Even with in-flight refueling they'd have to fly over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and that won't happen. Obama would never allow it over Iraq. Nor would the Saudis.


Like they would ask...
2/18/2010 6:34:34 PM EDT
[#24]
March 16.  Bet on it.
2/18/2010 6:35:35 PM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Well...what says the Hive?

I'm saying that Israel hits Iran in 6 months or less.

Hax

If Britain doesn't hit Israel first over the Dubai hit.  If I was GBR I'd be moving my carriers and getting SAS out of bed.
 


Bah.  They are too tied up in Iraq and Afg with us and are also sending a few boats down to Argentina again.  They won't do dick.  I'm waiting for an Israeli surprise.  It won't be a conventional attack.
2/18/2010 6:36:17 PM EDT
[#26]



Quoted:



Quoted:

It has been pointed out many times before.  THEY CAN'T!



They can do ONE big conventional strike, ONCE.  




June 7, 1981.
Great minds....



Sometimes once is all that is necessary.  





 
2/18/2010 6:40:23 PM EDT
[#27]
not soon enough or 87 days, whichever comes first.
2/18/2010 6:44:01 PM EDT
[#28]



Quoted:


Look at a map.



Israel can't air-strike Iran.  Even with in-flight refueling they'd have to fly over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and that won't happen. Obama would never allow it over Iraq. Nor would the Saudis.



Oh, fer crying out loud.  This comes up every freaking time we have this discussion.  Obama is an incompetent asshat.  He would tell them they couldn't fly over, but to really stop them, he'd have to authorize use of force.  Do you really think he's gonna do that?  Really?  (Though, having asked this, part of thinks he gets wet dreams about this particular scenario....)



What are the chances the pilots would actually go up against Israeli pilots just to stop them from entering Iraqi airspace?  This last question isn't rhetorical.  



 
2/18/2010 6:46:33 PM EDT
[#29]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Look at a map.

Israel can't air-strike Iran.  Even with in-flight refueling they'd have to fly over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and that won't happen. Obama would never allow it over Iraq. Nor would the Saudis.

Oh, fer crying out loud.  This comes up every freaking time we have this discussion.  Obama is an incompetent asshat.  He would tell them they couldn't fly over, but to really stop them, he'd have to authorize use of force.  Do you really think he's gonna do that?  Really?  (Though, having asked this, part of thinks he gets wet dreams about this particular scenario....)

What are the chances the pilots would actually go up against Israeli pilots just to stop them from entering Iraqi airspace?  This last question isn't rhetorical.  
 



U.S. wouldn't.  But the Saudis might.  Saudi Arabia has a kickass airforce.  (mostly our stuff and some british, but a whole shitload of it).

My guess is that the EW environment would be a "random blackout" for saudi arabia and they wouldn't even know Izzy was flying, or even re-fueling over them.

2/18/2010 6:58:27 PM EDT
[#30]
Since this was asked yesterday, it 86 days away.
2/18/2010 7:00:28 PM EDT
[#31]
Israel won't attack- they will be attacked.

Russia/Iran =Gog/Magog

Who thought Ten years ago these two would be playing nice together?

This alliance attacks Israel.  God intervenes.

When my great-grandfather read his Bible... I don't think he could imagine what I see in the news today.

Wars, rumors of wars, earthquakes in diverse places, Romans chapter 1, Jews in Jerusalem, etc. etc.

I'm looking at the perfect storm of Biblical prophecy.

You ain't seen bad yet...but it's coming.

Even so Lord come quickly.
2/18/2010 7:06:36 PM EDT
[#32]
Quoted:
Israel won't attack- they will be attacked.

Russia/Iran =Gog/Magog

Who thought Ten years ago these two would be playing nice together?

This alliance attacks Israel.  God intervenes.

When my great-grandfather read his Bible... I don't think he could imagine what I see in the news today.

Wars, rumors of wars, earthquakes in diverse places, Romans chapter 1, Jews in Jerusalem, etc. etc.

I'm looking at the perfect storm of Biblical prophecy.

You ain't seen bad yet...but it's coming.

Even so Lord come quickly.




Thank you, brother.

HH
2/18/2010 7:21:55 PM EDT
[#33]
Quoted:
Israel won't attack- they will be attacked.

Russia/Iran =Gog/Magog

Who thought Ten years ago these two would be playing nice together?

This alliance attacks Israel.  God intervenes.

When my great-grandfather read his Bible... I don't think he could imagine what I see in the news today.

Wars, rumors of wars, earthquakes in diverse places, Romans chapter 1, Jews in Jerusalem, etc. etc.

I'm looking at the perfect storm of Biblical prophecy.

You ain't seen bad yet...but it's coming.

Even so Lord come quickly.


And I heard, as it were, the noise of thunder: One of the four beasts saying: "Come and see." And I saw. And behold, a white horse.
There's a man goin' 'round takin' names. An' he decides who to free and who to blame. Everybody won't be treated all the same. There'll be a golden ladder reaching down. When the man comes around.

The hairs on your arm will stand up. At the terror in each sip and in each sup. For you partake of that last offered cup, Or disappear into the potter's ground. When the man comes around.

Hear the trumpets, hear the pipers. One hundred million angels singin'. Multitudes are marching to the big kettle drum. Voices callin', voices cryin'. Some are born an' some are dyin'. It's Alpha's and Omega's Kingdom come.

And the whirlwind is in the thorn tree. The virgins are all trimming their wicks. The whirlwind is in the thorn tree. It's hard for thee to kick against the pricks.

Till Armageddon, no Shalam, no Shalom. Then the father hen will call his chickens home. The wise men will bow down before the throne. And at his feet they'll cast their golden crown. When the man comes around.

Whoever is unjust, let him be unjust still. Whoever is righteous, let him be righteous still. Whoever is filthy, let him be filthy still. Listen to the words long written down, When the man comes around.

Hear the trumpets, hear the pipers. One hundred million angels singin'. Multitudes are marchin' to the big kettle drum. Voices callin', voices cryin'. Some are born an' some are dyin'. It's Alpha's and Omega's Kingdom come.

And the whirlwind is in the thorn tree. The virgins are all trimming their wicks. The whirlwind is in the thorn tree. It's hard for thee to kick against the pricks.

In measured hundredweight and penny pound. When the man comes around.

And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts, And I looked and behold: a pale horse. And his name, that sat on him, was Death. And Hell followed with him.

ST~
RIP John

2/18/2010 7:27:20 PM EDT
[#34]
Not soon enough.
2/18/2010 7:27:41 PM EDT
[#35]
Quoted:
Quoted:

Quoted:
Look at a map.

Israel can't air-strike Iran.  Even with in-flight refueling they'd have to fly over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and that won't happen. Obama would never allow it over Iraq. Nor would the Saudis.

Oh, fer crying out loud.  This comes up every freaking time we have this discussion.  Obama is an incompetent asshat.  He would tell them they couldn't fly over, but to really stop them, he'd have to authorize use of force.  Do you really think he's gonna do that?  Really?  (Though, having asked this, part of thinks he gets wet dreams about this particular scenario....)

What are the chances the pilots would actually go up against Israeli pilots just to stop them from entering Iraqi airspace?  This last question isn't rhetorical.  
 


U.S. wouldn't.  But the Saudis might.  Saudi Arabia has a kickass airforce.  (mostly our stuff and some british, but a whole shitload of it).

My guess is that the EW environment would be a "random blackout" for saudi arabia and they wouldn't even know Izzy was flying, or even re-fueling over them.


There was talk of Saudia Arabia telling Israel they could use their air space back in July. No way to tell how true though.

Saudis give nod to Israeli raid on Iran

The head of Mossad, Israel’s overseas intelligence service, has assured Benjamin Netanyahu, its prime minister, that Saudi Arabia would turn a blind eye to Israeli jets flying over the kingdom during any future raid on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Earlier this year Meir Dagan, Mossad’s director since 2002, held secret talks with Saudi officials to discuss the possibility.

The Israeli press has already carried unconfirmed reports that high-ranking officials, including Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister, held meetings with Saudi colleagues. The reports were denied by Saudi officials.

“The Saudis have tacitly agreed to the Israeli air force flying through their airspace on a mission which is supposed to be in the common interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia,” a diplomatic source said last week.

Although the countries have no formal diplomatic relations, an Israeli defence source confirmed that Mossad maintained “working relations” with the Saudis.

John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations who recently visited the Gulf, said it was “entirely logical” for the Israelis to use Saudi airspace.

Bolton, who has talked to several Arab leaders, added: “None of them would say anything about it publicly but they would certainly acquiesce in an overflight if the Israelis didn’t trumpet it as a big success.”

Arab states would condemn a raid when they spoke at the UN but would be privately relieved to see the threat of an Iranian bomb removed, he said.

Referring to the Israeli attack on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility in 2007, Bolton added: “To this day, the Israelis haven’t admitted the specifics but there’s one less nuclear facility in Syria . . .”

Recent developments have underscored concerns among moderate Sunni Arab states about the stability of the repressive Shi’ite regime in Tehran and have increased fears that it may emerge as a belligerent nuclear power.

“The Saudis are very concerned about an Iranian nuclear bomb, even more than the Israelis,” said a former head of research in Israeli intelligence.

The Israeli air force has been training for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear site at Natanz in the centre of the country and other locations for four years.




2/18/2010 7:30:20 PM EDT
[#36]
Quoted:
Israel won't attack- they will be attacked.

Russia/Iran =Gog/Magog

Who thought Ten years ago these two would be playing nice together?

This alliance attacks Israel.  God intervenes.

When my great-grandfather read his Bible... I don't think he could imagine what I see in the news today.

Wars, rumors of wars, earthquakes in diverse places, Romans chapter 1, Jews in Jerusalem, etc. etc.

I'm looking at the perfect storm of Biblical prophecy.

You ain't seen bad yet...but it's coming.

Even so Lord come quickly.


and you guys think truthers are bad?

It is this type of thinking that is going to cause a war to happen.  Wanting it to happen so we can just see who gets to be raptured or not is not a good outlook.    (which isn't in the bible anyways)

I can't believe the fatalists that WANT the world to end.  Maybe it is just me, but this seems to be backwards thinking on the level of some of the jihadist thought.
2/18/2010 7:31:37 PM EDT
[#37]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:

Quoted:
Look at a map.

Israel can't air-strike Iran.  Even with in-flight refueling they'd have to fly over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and that won't happen. Obama would never allow it over Iraq. Nor would the Saudis.

Oh, fer crying out loud.  This comes up every freaking time we have this discussion.  Obama is an incompetent asshat.  He would tell them they couldn't fly over, but to really stop them, he'd have to authorize use of force.  Do you really think he's gonna do that?  Really?  (Though, having asked this, part of thinks he gets wet dreams about this particular scenario....)

What are the chances the pilots would actually go up against Israeli pilots just to stop them from entering Iraqi airspace?  This last question isn't rhetorical.  
 


U.S. wouldn't.  But the Saudis might.  Saudi Arabia has a kickass airforce.  (mostly our stuff and some british, but a whole shitload of it).

My guess is that the EW environment would be a "random blackout" for saudi arabia and they wouldn't even know Izzy was flying, or even re-fueling over them.


There was talk of Saudia Arabia telling Israel they could use their air space back in July. No way to tell how true though.

Saudis give nod to Israeli raid on Iran

The head of Mossad, Israel’s overseas intelligence service, has assured Benjamin Netanyahu, its prime minister, that Saudi Arabia would turn a blind eye to Israeli jets flying over the kingdom during any future raid on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Earlier this year Meir Dagan, Mossad’s director since 2002, held secret talks with Saudi officials to discuss the possibility.

The Israeli press has already carried unconfirmed reports that high-ranking officials, including Ehud Olmert, the former prime minister, held meetings with Saudi colleagues. The reports were denied by Saudi officials.

“The Saudis have tacitly agreed to the Israeli air force flying through their airspace on a mission which is supposed to be in the common interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia,” a diplomatic source said last week.

Although the countries have no formal diplomatic relations, an Israeli defence source confirmed that Mossad maintained “working relations” with the Saudis.

John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations who recently visited the Gulf, said it was “entirely logical” for the Israelis to use Saudi airspace.

Bolton, who has talked to several Arab leaders, added: “None of them would say anything about it publicly but they would certainly acquiesce in an overflight if the Israelis didn’t trumpet it as a big success.”

Arab states would condemn a raid when they spoke at the UN but would be privately relieved to see the threat of an Iranian bomb removed, he said.

Referring to the Israeli attack on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility in 2007, Bolton added: “To this day, the Israelis haven’t admitted the specifics but there’s one less nuclear facility in Syria . . .”

Recent developments have underscored concerns among moderate Sunni Arab states about the stability of the repressive Shi’ite regime in Tehran and have increased fears that it may emerge as a belligerent nuclear power.

“The Saudis are very concerned about an Iranian nuclear bomb, even more than the Israelis,” said a former head of research in Israeli intelligence.

The Israeli air force has been training for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear site at Natanz in the centre of the country and other locations for four years.






Well, Saudi Arabia doesn't want a nuclear Iran either.  Should be a case of "didn't see nuffin officer"

2/18/2010 7:41:45 PM EDT
[#38]
Quoted:
Well...what says the Hive?

I'm saying that Israel hits Iran in 6 months or less.

Hax


I get really tired of posting this in these threads, but apparently some people still haven't seen it.

Non-Military Considerations

In addition to the military and strategic considerations, three other factors must guide Israel. First is the level of U.S. support if Israel attacks. Israel cannot attack Iran without U.S. support. This is true both operationally and strategically. An explicit and strict U.S. veto on an Israeli military attack will take the option off the table. On the other hand, if the United States does not explicitly oppose an Israeli attack, there could be different levels of support. These could range from declared and open support accompanied by a declaration that a country that attacks Israel in response, such as Syria, would be in a state of war with the United States, or to the other extreme, joining widespread, if weak, condemnation of Israel.

Eiland, Giora, "Israel's Military Option", The Washington Quarterly. Jan 2010. Pg. 127


Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Giora Eiland is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security
Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, and was the head of the Israeli National Security Council from
2004 to 2006.

http://www.twq.com/10january/docs/10jan_Eiland.pdf
2/18/2010 7:46:58 PM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Israel won't attack- they will be attacked.

Russia/Iran =Gog/Magog

Who thought Ten years ago these two would be playing nice together?

This alliance attacks Israel.  God intervenes.

When my great-grandfather read his Bible... I don't think he could imagine what I see in the news today.

Wars, rumors of wars, earthquakes in diverse places, Romans chapter 1, Jews in Jerusalem, etc. etc.

I'm looking at the perfect storm of Biblical prophecy.

You ain't seen bad yet...but it's coming.

Even so Lord come quickly.


and you guys think truthers are bad?

It is this type of thinking that is going to cause a war to happen.  Wanting it to happen so we can just see who gets to be raptured or not is not a good outlook.    (which isn't in the bible anyways)

I can't believe the fatalists that WANT the world to end.  Maybe it is just me, but this seems to be backwards thinking on the level of some of the jihadist thought.


Sounds more like a "booze and bible reading time should not mix" thing.
2/18/2010 7:47:44 PM EDT
[#40]



Quoted:



Quoted:

Well...what says the Hive?



I'm saying that Israel hits Iran in 6 months or less.



Hax




I get really tired of posting this in these threads, but apparently some people still haven't seen it.





Non-Military Considerations



In addition to the military and strategic considerations, three other factors must guide Israel. First is the level of U.S. support if Israel attacks. Israel cannot attack Iran without U.S. support. This is true both operationally and strategically. An explicit and strict U.S. veto on an Israeli military attack will take the option off the table. On the other hand, if the United States does not explicitly oppose an Israeli attack, there could be different levels of support. These could range from declared and open support accompanied by a declaration that a country that attacks Israel in response, such as Syria, would be in a state of war with the United States, or to the other extreme, joining widespread, if weak, condemnation of Israel.



Eiland, Giora, "Israel's Military Option", The Washington Quarterly. Jan 2010. Pg. 127





Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Giora Eiland is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security

Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, and was the head of the Israeli National Security Council from

2004 to 2006.


http://www.twq.com/10january/docs/10jan_Eiland.pdf



So I'm lazy and suffer from ADHD on the computer.  Cliff notes the reasons why US support is so vitally necessary, please.



 
2/18/2010 7:55:09 PM EDT
[#41]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
Well...what says the Hive?

I'm saying that Israel hits Iran in 6 months or less.

Hax


I get really tired of posting this in these threads, but apparently some people still haven't seen it.

Non-Military Considerations

In addition to the military and strategic considerations, three other factors must guide Israel. First is the level of U.S. support if Israel attacks. Israel cannot attack Iran without U.S. support. This is true both operationally and strategically. An explicit and strict U.S. veto on an Israeli military attack will take the option off the table. On the other hand, if the United States does not explicitly oppose an Israeli attack, there could be different levels of support. These could range from declared and open support accompanied by a declaration that a country that attacks Israel in response, such as Syria, would be in a state of war with the United States, or to the other extreme, joining widespread, if weak, condemnation of Israel.

Eiland, Giora, "Israel's Military Option", The Washington Quarterly. Jan 2010. Pg. 127


Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Giora Eiland is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security
Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, and was the head of the Israeli National Security Council from
2004 to 2006.

http://www.twq.com/10january/docs/10jan_Eiland.pdf

So I'm lazy and suffer from ADHD on the computer.  Cliff notes the reasons why US support is so vitally necessary, please.
 


What's do I look like? Your study buddy? Read it or don't.
2/18/2010 8:08:07 PM EDT
[#42]
I don't think they can. The Iranian targets are too hardened, too dispersed and too deep underground to be eliminated by an Israeli air strike. They don't have the means of deploying a significant ground force to Iran and supporting it once ashore. I also don't think they want to use nuclear weapons in a preemptive strike. So this leaves Israel without any real options for success.

So here is about all they can do:

1. Conduct covert actions to rob Iran of its nuclear scientists (they may already be doing this) by having them "picked off" one by one
2. Launch an air strike in the hopes it can at least set back Iran a little (a risky option)
3. Beef up their anti-missile defenses (which they are doing)
4. Hope and pray Obama grows a spine and attacks Iran (ain't gonna happen)
5. Launch an air attack, knowing it has no chance of real success, in an effort to ignite a shit storm in the region, forcing the US to intervene against Iran (This would probably offer the best chance of all of actually destroying Iran's nuclear program or delivering severe, long term setbacks, but at a cost Israel could not afford. If they intentionally acted in a manner that would force the US into a fight, they would likely find themselves cut off from US aid and weapons technology, leaving them very vulnerable to their regional enemies. They just can't afford this option.)

Again, they have pretty limited options. Without them finding a way to cause the US to voluntarily or involuntarily go to war against Iran, they pretty much have zero means of destroying or even delivering Iran's nuclear program a major setback. All they can do is hope to stall and gain an extra week here or a month there. But ultimately, they can't prevent Iran from obtaining the bomb. Only the US or a combination US/European/Middle East military type coalition could do that. And the chances of that happening are somewhere between slim and none.
2/18/2010 8:16:41 PM EDT
[#43]



Quoted:



Quoted:




Quoted:


Quoted:

Well...what says the Hive?



I'm saying that Israel hits Iran in 6 months or less.



Hax




I get really tired of posting this in these threads, but apparently some people still haven't seen it.





Non-Military Considerations



In addition to the military and strategic considerations, three other factors must guide Israel. First is the level of U.S. support if Israel attacks. Israel cannot attack Iran without U.S. support. This is true both operationally and strategically. An explicit and strict U.S. veto on an Israeli military attack will take the option off the table. On the other hand, if the United States does not explicitly oppose an Israeli attack, there could be different levels of support. These could range from declared and open support accompanied by a declaration that a country that attacks Israel in response, such as Syria, would be in a state of war with the United States, or to the other extreme, joining widespread, if weak, condemnation of Israel.



Eiland, Giora, "Israel's Military Option", The Washington Quarterly. Jan 2010. Pg. 127





Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Giora Eiland is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security

Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, and was the head of the Israeli National Security Council from

2004 to 2006.


http://www.twq.com/10january/docs/10jan_Eiland.pdf



So I'm lazy and suffer from ADHD on the computer.  Cliff notes the reasons why US support is so vitally necessary, please.

 




What's do I look like? Your study buddy? Read it or don't.


It's a pedantic effort.  And it reads like a high school essay.  Moreover, it's 16 pages of information unrelated to the point of discussion.  It wouldn't have hurt to add a sentence or two backing up your claims.  And now that I've perused the pertinent parts, I'm not the least bit surprised to find it doesn't elaborate on said ASSUMPTION in the least.  None of the claims regarding US support are premised in fact.  Nothing more than mere assumptions and opinions.  Not that they're wrong, mind you.  But one would think that the claim of "Israel absolutely has to have US support" would be bolstered by something.  



And I'm not sure your countenance is relevant to the discussion.



 
2/18/2010 8:21:33 PM EDT
[#44]
Assuming Obama or the Saudis don't shoot down the Izzies overflying, you can bet your bippy that Obama would cut off all that nice military aid to Israel, and that's the last thing they need if they're poking the Iranians.
2/18/2010 8:22:03 PM EDT
[#45]
won't happen

more clandestine work though
2/18/2010 8:22:50 PM EDT
[#46]
Quoted:
Look at a map.

Israel can't air-strike Iran.  Even with in-flight refueling they'd have to fly over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and that won't happen. Obama would never allow it over Iraq. Nor would the Saudis.


10 jets flew missions to Greece and Tajikistan recently (and no one challenged them ) ?
2/18/2010 8:23:38 PM EDT
[#47]
There is no way Israel will strike Iran.  It's pretty obvious.
2/18/2010 8:23:42 PM EDT
[#48]
Quoted:
I don't think they can. The Iranian targets are too hardened, too dispersed and too deep underground to be eliminated by an Israeli air strike. They don't have the means of deploying a significant ground force to Iran and supporting it once ashore. I also don't think they want to use nuclear weapons in a preemptive strike. So this leaves Israel without any real options for success.

So here is about all they can do:

1. Conduct covert actions to rob Iran of its nuclear scientists (they may already be doing this) by having them "picked off" one by one (They have 10,000... that's going to be a long list. Obviously some are more key than others... but killing scientists doesn't destroy their work. Others will continue to follow what has already been discovered and learned.)
2. Launch an air strike in the hopes it can at least set back Iran a little (a risky option) Risky indeed. Number one, the odds the operation would fail are high. Second, it will rally the population around the flag, thereby giving the regime a closer hold on power and substantially set back the reform movement. It will also give Iran justification under Article 10 of the NPT to withdraw and legally build nukes due to the national security exemption.... I think this is what they are hoping for.
3. Beef up their anti-missile defenses (which they are doing) Correct. See this thread: http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1000086
4. Hope and pray Obama grows a spine and attacks Iran (ain't gonna happen) I think there is a better chance of pixy fairies flying out of Dick Cheney's ass and discovering the messiah in his corn flakes than Obama using force on Iran
5. Launch an air attack, knowing it has no chance of real success, in an effort to ignite a shit storm in the region, forcing the US to intervene against Iran (This would probably offer the best chance of all of actually destroying Iran's nuclear program or delivering severe, long term setbacks, but at a cost Israel could not afford. If they intentionally acted in a manner that would force the US into a fight, they would likely find themselves cut off from US aid and weapons technology, leaving them very vulnerable to their regional enemies. They just can't afford this option.) Correct. They have already been warned several times what the consequences would be in causing such a scenario.

Again, they have pretty limited options. Without them finding a way to cause the US to voluntarily or involuntarily go to war against Iran, they pretty much have zero means of destroying or even delivering Iran's nuclear program a major setback. All they can do is hope to stall and gain an extra week here or a month there. But ultimately, they can't prevent Iran from obtaining the bomb. Only the US or a combination US/European/Middle East military type coalition could do that. And the chances of that happening are somewhere between slim and none.

Even we are not assured of setting back Iran's program. With the new Fordow Uranian enrichment site in Qom, the Iranians have built themselves a enrichment plant which is incapable of being destroyed except through a nuclear strike. The Israelis have confirmed this. So unless someone nukes them, or invades them, they can go nuclear in short order.


From my post here:

"This report also concluded that the Fordow enrichment plant is capable of producing enough weapon-
grade uranium for a weapon, under conservative assumptions about the performance of the P1
centrifuges. Thus, the Fordow plant is suitable as a military facility in any Iranian effort to produce
nuclear weapons. This result confirms the Obama administration’s estimate that Fordow is large
enough to produce enriched uranium for a weapons program."


2/18/2010 8:24:26 PM EDT
[#49]
Quoted:
Quoted:
It has been pointed out many times before.  THEY CAN'T!

They can do ONE big conventional strike, ONCE.  




June 7, 1981.


That you post that indicates your lack of knowledge of the situation, lacking even the understanding that a casual CNN/FOX viewer possesses about the widely dispersed, extremely numerous Iranian nuclear facilities, that aren't secret and hidden, that is.

2/18/2010 8:25:07 PM EDT
[#50]
No happy endings however this plays out.
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