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AR15.COM
10/20/2004 2:15:13 PM EDT
Released as of 5:00 tonight


Election 2004

National Political Tracking Data

Updated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Wednesday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking             Bush   48  Kerry 47
Congress                              Dem   45  GOP    40
President Bush Job Approval                  52
Electoral College               Bush 222 - Kerry 190
Updated Weekly
Bush                   Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry                 Favorable 50 Unfavorable 49
Battleground States               Bush  47  Kerry 47
Right Track?                         Right 43 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader?         Bush 50   Kerry 40
Trust on Nat'l Defense?          Bush 53   Kerry 42
Trust to Manage Economy?   Bush 49   Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 51  Terrorists 27
How is Bush handling Iraq  Ex/Good 44 Poor 44
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 42 Poor 43



Rasmussen now has the EV at Bush 222 and Kerry 190. last week it was Bush 213 and Kerry 194

While this might not be a huge swing, keep in mind Rasmussen will not award a state to anybody unless HIS polls show a 5% lead by either candidate.  He also plays down Bush's performance a little as he is a Republican leaning pollster.  Florida will go for us as will Ohio, so I feel you can add aother 47 votes onto that for Bush for 269... right on the cusp.

Oh this is going to be a long two weeks!
10/20/2004 2:21:22 PM EDT
[#1]
Hiram the numbers that jump out in this poll are,


Who is a Better Leader? Bush 50 Kerry 40
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 53 Kerry 42
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 45




I put this in the electoral thread as well.  This gives Bush a win IMO.  Bush can win this election with a favorability of less than 50% if the above nubers are accurate and stay the same.  At the end of the day the election is about the above numbers and not much else.  Do people want to trust an unkown to win and run a war on terror??  The numbers from Rasmussen say no.  

Bush wins with 295 to 305 ec votes over Kerry
10/20/2004 2:28:29 PM EDT
[#2]
269 and Bush wins because it goes to the Republican House