I find it useful, even if only for myself, to set down a marker to see how effectively I can see events and judge the next steps.

A while back I looked at everything going on in the Trump campaign...especially who was running it...and put out there that I thought Trump was trying to make a deal with the deep state in general. They'd dial back on the lawfare and he'd not push serious institutional reform.

Well, then a couple of weeks later they fucking shot him in the head. Immediately after Trump completely reorganized his campaign and brought a bunch of OG MAGA types in the top spots, sidelining the GOP insiders who were running things prior. It was a tectonic shift in approach.

In other words, the deal that looked possible was definitely off.

So here's what I think happens for the campaign:

First, we have to understand that the polling is not close to being accurate. Look at the polling from 2016 and 2020 and note that hardly any of the polling was accurate to the final result. Trump out-performed his polls in 2016 and 2020 and it doesn't seem like any many of the pollsters have done any serious reform work to figure that out and make it better. Worse still, if one is going by voter rolls from 2020 there's a lot of unusual crap data in there just because of the nature of that "election"...so it's unlikely they're going to be significantly more accurate now than then.

The wild polling swings seen for Kamala are a result of that bad polling, IMO. Their polling got a lot of previously depressed democrats who were suddenly eager to talk to pollsters once Biden was replaced, but that did not portend a significant shift in the country. Where she's sitting at right now in those same polls is most likely nothing more than a more accurate accounting of what her actual support has been from the jump.

In tonight's debate if she doesn't drain a fifth of vodka, pass out, and shit herself on stage the media narrative will be that it was a huge success for Kamala. They will settle on a couple of hackneyed platitudes that will be repeated over and over and over again. (She "stood up to Trump", she "found her voice", she "met her moment", blah blah blah) After that you're going to see a push for polls that will show her bumping up 3-5 points. This will be more of the same. Short of something utterly catastrophic taking place, we're not going to see a genuine 10 point swing.

The fundamentals are going to decide this election, specifically three core issues:

- Economy
- Immigration
- Safety

That's what most people are going to be voting on. You can tell even her campaign knows it because she's talking about lowering prices, helping people buy homes, building the wall, etc.

There are other key issues, though, that will play into specific voter groups that will likely ultimately decide the question:

- Medical freedom
- Free speech
- Crypto
- Food quality/safety

These are not core issues, but there are voters who are nearly single issue on all of those and Kamala is going to lose those voters to Trump by large margins. Margins big enough to put her in deep trouble in a number of swing states. These are the people that Robert Kennedy and Nicole Shanahan are aggressively going out and rounding up for Trump. They've decided to go full scorched earth on Kamala and more importantly the system behind Kamala and it's going to be felt in the swing states, especially places like Pa.

So the prognostications:

1. PA is probably the key battleground in all of this. It is unlikely, in my view, that the other mid-western swing states are going to wildly vary from PA's results. If Trump takes PA, it's unlikely he will lose Michigan and Wisconsin. He takes at least one of those states as well.

2. I think Trump ultimately does win PA, and with that takes the race. The question will be what the margin is. I expect the margin to be beyond the margin of fraud.

3. A real problem for the Republicans is that those "other key issues" voters that are going to help put Trump over the top are voting for Trump, not necessarily for Republicans. Republican candidates down ballot are under-performing Trump in the polls and have under-performed Trump in actual election results. That being said, ballot splitting is pretty rare in this day and age and that's why Trump's margin is going to matter. If he has enough margin, he has enough coat tails to take candidates like Kerry Lake across the finish line with him. If it's narrow then they probably won't make it. I use Kerry Lake as an example acknowledging that AZ is screwy as shit and hard to pin down. I don't think anyone has a good read on what's going to happen there. But Trump winning PA with more than 3 points probably means he has sufficient coat tails to bring in at least three of the close senate contests home.

4. I don't believe there's any way Trump gets less than 5 points in Ohio. He likely wins Ohio by double digits and now especially with the pet-eating story breaking I think you can say goodbye to Sherrod Brown as senator from Ohio.

Of course, events can always crop up that change anything. Short of an another event like an assassins' bullet missing the mark I think what you see from the debate until election day is Kamala eroding in the swing states with each bad economic story, each immigration story, and each crime story. The government employed wine moms in big blue areas will be immune to this, but the people who are feeling the impact of these problems plus the constant campaigning and messaging from the RFK-alignment will push the swing states hard in Trump's direction.

Trump will again end up with record levels of votes from blacks and hispanics. He will do well among working class zoomer and millenial men, especially. May even surprise us all with how many working class zoomer and millenial women he pulls in, too.

You'll know you've hit a point of capitulation when the mainstream starts running stories about how badly Kamala is managing the campaign. That's your clue that the internal numbers they don't publish look really bad for her and they need to make it look like she did it, not the apparatus behind her. This will be strongly encouraged by the remaining Biden loyalists and by Biden himself, all eager to get a "We told you so" out of the deal.

Immediately after the election Biden pardons Hunter. I think he likely pardons Trump too, trying to make it look like it's not a naked abuse of power while simultaneously making it so that the various charges against Trump and government actions against him become moot and receive no resolution in court. That serves the interests of the apparatus.

My money is where my mouth is over on Predictit. So we'll see if I make some money or get skunked.

So now we watch the media spin of the "debate" and we look for how much of a bump they claim she gets out of it. If you see 3-5 points, that's about what I expect. If you see anything more than that look really, really hard at the methodology because they are cooking the books.

If they show her up by less than 3 or with no bump at all, then expect them to panic.

Watch Nate Silver suddenly throw all his predictions the other way in post debate polling because what he's mining is attention, not prediction. They're going to love selling the idea of a whipsaw electorate that's vacillating 10 points at a time when in reality people aren't nearly that flexible.

Even in several of the post debate discussions with "undecided" voters you're already hearing that Kamala had no answers, especially not to Trump's closing argument. The fundamentals don't change but the media spin machine goes hard and heavy for the next two weeks or so in an effort to boost blowjob.

Good synopsis.  Tag for further discussion as things shake out.

The fundamentals are going to decide this election, specifically three core issues:

- Economy
- Immigration
- Safety

- - -

Wrong.  That's what you want to decide the election.  But that's not what will decide the election.

There's a whole group of voters interested in climate change, free handouts for their interests, eating the rich based on jealousy, and living comfortable lives with their smart phone.

That's what will decide the election.  Emotions, not "fundamentals".

There's what you want, and then there's what actually is.



BTW, yes, Kamala DID win the debate. There's what I want, and then there's reality.  Two different things.

You forgot the part where more than half the electorate are females. Unfortunately, they will determine this election.

Then there is abortion,the 3rd rail that the republincan party is stepping on.

This times 1,000. Climate change, abortion, capitalism is evil, etc. are the real issues people care about. They’ve been brainwashed.

Very well thought out analysis. Much better than the normal fare on GD!  I hope you're right.  I wish Trump had hit her harder during the debate on those issues, but people don't use the debates to decide anymore.

In one way it's good she did that well , the handlers will put her out there more.
Then she can speak unrehearsed and make word salads undeterred.

Those things don't happen without the aforementioned 3 fundamentals.  Your response is going to be to tell me the people who care about those things don't care about the fundamentals.  It's not really up to them, if we as a country are doing well economically and feeling secure, we allow those issues to be talking points.  You're also also focusing on very vocal minority groups that don't swing elections.  The majority of Americans are feeling the effects of a very poorly run economy, while the government imports more and more people.

Kamala didn't win the debate.  There was an expectation that she would come out drunk, cackling and making word salad and she didn't.  It was the best outcome they could have hoped for the debate but it was not a win.

Your scenario is a very logical, calculated approach based on the information we have access to.

I'm sure there are a lot of "behind-the-scenes" activities going on that we are not privy to that could produce very illogical results...like 2020.

How did this not get more traction when it was posted yesterday morning?

This is a fantastic analysis.

I have come to the conclusion there are three Presidential campaigns going on right now.

The Trump party.

The people behind the Harris charade.

The Media and who they want to elect.

J_Dubs777 always makes very thoughtful posts, regardless of the shit-slinging edgelords in GD.  Very much appreciated.

OP did a good job.  However.....

It’s still just two.

Your second and third are completely aligned.

I’m believing more and more that Trump has reduced if not destroyed the Republican party but that’s probably a discussion for another thread.

So as we watch the coverage, I'm not sure we're even going to see much of a bump as the post-debate coverage is not going Kamala's way:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

The post debate focus groups are coming back with the same core message that her debate performance didn't address the fundamental issues previously cited that are the key worries the electorate at large has.

Orange Man Bad doesn't pay anyone's bills or help them afford a home. Orange Man Bad doesn't address immigration. People noticed that the substantive issues they actually wanted to hear about got shoved off stage ASAP so they could yak about irrelevant shit like January 6th and a bunch of debunked propaganda hoaxes.

In other words, voters are noticing quite clearly what they didn't want to talk about and they're making decisions based on that.

The things they did focus on might be ultimately counter-productive because there's shitloads of debunking happening on social media, especially X and tik-tok where blatant lies like the "good people" hoax or Kamala saying she never supported confiscating guns is getting put up right next to her statements from the debate.

It would appear now that even the hopes of a post-debate bump are rapidly disappearing and that either by happy accident or through deliberate cunning (I don't care which you believe) Trump made the key conversation pieces coming out of the debate issues where Kamala is incredibly weak.

The pet eating story hits right at the big issues of immigration and safety outlined in the first post. The media's inability to see what a trap it is for them has only given it more legs and now social media is loaded to the gills with video coming out of Springfield of people saying it's absolutely real and even pictures of the dead animals juxtaposed against the official media narrative. It's making the conversation about immigration and that's an issue that Kamala does not fare well on.

This is a problem because the official media narrative is not believed by that group of single-issue type voters from my second list that are all going to go "Well, we've heard this before about COVID, about the lab leak, about the vaccines, about Biden being 'sharp as a tack'...."

In an ironic funhouse mirror image of the criticisms about Trump, their inability to shut the fuck up and let it go has made it a huge issue that will have significantly damaging effects in ways that won't be fully realized for some time...but the warning signs are already here.

Well, another assassination attempt down, who the fuck knows how many to go. Publishing an actual price on Trump's head is quite the move from the mainstream propagandists.

So what about the race itself?

Well, as I alluded to it seems like Kamala never had much of a bump coming out of the debate and whatever bump she did get seems to have dissipated.

"Some private polling suggests what the Trump people forecast a month ago, which is that, over time, once the Harris honeymoon ended, that she would fall back to where Joe Biden was before the Biden-Trump debate,” says @MarkHalperin, adding that this could leave Harris with only… pic.twitter.com/dSsdTN0aHi

2WAY  (@2waytvapp) September 23, 2024

She is in serious trouble in Pennsylvania...and the same voter groups she is in trouble with in Pa (working class, especially millennials and zoomers, "non-college" educated which is a misnomer as many of them have some college just not a four year degree or a degree from a state school) are a large chunk of the population all through the rust belt. It is highly unlikely that other rust belt states will vote starkly different to PA just because of the demographics.

I think Harris loses PA. There has been a significant effort afoot in PA to get people registered and get them to the polls, to the point that the registration balance in a number of counties has flipped with more Republicans than Democrats...which hasn't happened in generations. Mail-in ballot requests are down significantly, and that's how democrats cheated to win PA last time. They aren't getting enough margin for mail-ins to do the same fraud as 2020, and there is an influx of low propensity voters (meaning people who haven't voted much or ever before) coming to get registered. These people are not doing that to embrace Kamala's "joy".

With that I think she will also lose Wisconsin and Michigan. Minnesota has a lot more Scandinavian descent in it than the other two and that makes it tough for Trump to pull that state out just due to how insufferably "progressive" the state is due to ancestral trends. If it's a true blowout a la 1984, Trump might actually win Minnesota, but that's what I think it will take to achieve that. All that being said, I think Trump only loses by a very small margin...which will scare the shit out of the state's democrat and republican establishment. I just think there are too many "educated" class people in Minnesota to counter-act the working class backlash against Bidenomics.

Virginia is an interesting bellwether this year. It has voted blue since Obama, but this year things are stirring. A buddy of mine went to vote in the Shenandoah Valley yesterday and reported that the county seat was somewhat shellshocked just due to the demand for early voting. There's evidence of this throughout the state with early voting in heavily blue areas down significantly but early voting in the redder part of the state increasing. In the Shenandoah Valley specifically a lot of the early voters are people who are low propensity voters. Buddy said that the Harris/Walz weenies are out in force in the area at the voting locations but are getting very little interaction with the people showing up to vote. In other words, you start going to the polling area and they move to intercept and are met with a terse "no thank you" up to one gentleman and his wife suggesting that the Harris/Walz weenies go fuck themselves "sideways."

If Trump wins Virginia because people come out of the hills and hollers and vote, it will show a trend across the nation that is going to shock pretty much everybody.

I think there are three likely scenarios in this one. I've mapped them out:

Scenario 1: Trump wins PA, AZ, and NV.



This is where I think we are right now. This means he wins the presidency, and with significant margin. I don't believe Trump is going to lose Nevada...and the same factors that will have him winning in Nevada should also give him the win in AZ. The elitist shitbird Republican wing is alive in AZ, but John McCain's lich power wanes and I think the more populist wing is bolstered by an influx of those low propensity voters being driven to the polls by the pain circumstances have inflicted on their lives.


Scenario 2: Trump wins Wisconsin and Michigan



If I have the dynamics of PA right, odds are that Trump will carry Wisconsin and possibly even Michigan. The fact that a democrat mayor from a place that's essentially been taken over by muslim immigrants came out and endorsed Trump is an incredibly dangerous warning sign for the democrats. The bottom line is that you're still looking at essentially working class people there who made more money and had better circumstances under Trump. Here again class is most important and the working class people are HEAVILY breaking Trump. I think Wisconsin is the state most likely to turn Trump but Michigan won't be far off of what you see in Michigan again just due to demographics.


Scenario 3: Trump wins Virginia



If Trump pulls Virginia off, I think the scenario seen here is a baseline, not a ceiling. Meaning that if Trump wins Virginia there's a significant chance he flips a couple of other states blue, too. Like perhaps Maine (lots of working class people) and New Mexico. From there, who knows. Jersey, maybe? This is what I consider the Holy Mother Blowout scenario. Not quite 1984 but probably as close as we'll see to that kind of blowout in our lifetime, and a portent that Trump might even come close to pulling out the popular vote.

Of course, if Trump actually succeeds in pulling off the popular vote...which I consider unlikely, mind you...then all these scenarios are far too parsimonious. That map will have maybe two or three blue spots on it. The key to that is how the low propensity working class voters (again, low propensity meaning they don't show up to vote in every election) turn out. If there's a mass surge then Trump can do some Reagan shit that will have both parties reeling.

The democrats think they can ignore the working class and get away with it. The republicans are thoroughly disgusted by even the idea of the working class...the people McCain derided as "crazies". They will be key in deciding this election, but the crucial question is going to be just how many of them show up.

If it's more than usual, Trump wins. If it's a lot more than usual, Trump wins bigly. If it's an unthinkable amount, Trump blows Kamala harder than she ever blew Willie Brown and shit gets real interesting in terms of the house and senate.

On the Virginia front, to give you some idea of just how different this cycle is than previous, that lying weasel traitor Vindman is about to watch his congressional candidacy burned to the ground and the earth be salted afterwards:

\uD83D\uDEA8\uD83D\uDEA8\uD83D\uDEA8 ABC7 moderator says it all about @yvindman dodging tonight’s #VA07 debate:

“Democratic candidate Eugene Vindman declined to participate this evening despite a month of working to find a date that worked for both campaigns.
\u2070We provided multiple offers for him to change… pic.twitter.com/MqncRTN7iJ

Derrick Anderson  (@DerrickforVA) September 24, 2024

I'm regularly in part of the district he's running for. To say he's not well liked in that area is an understatement.

I hope you're right brother.

The left is completely made up of traitorous, garbage humans, but Vindman really takes the cake. What feces.

Things continue apace.

Last night's VP debate saw Vance perform exactly as he needed to in order to reach out to younger working class women. He struck the right tone to reassure them against any of the bullshit narratives the media has tried to spin. Post debate polling shows a resounding win for Vance in the debate.

VP debates don't really move the needle unless something incredibly disastrous happens. What they can do, however, is reinforce the campaign's narrative. Vance frankly did a better job of that than Trump.

I don't expect to see any big movement in the polls either way as a direct result of the debate, but Vance didn't do anything to interrupt the momentum of his campaign with the key voters they are trying to win.

I thought earlier Virginia is in play, but I'm comfortable now saying it is most definitely in play.

Top counties by % turnout after 9 days of early voting and Mail:
\uD83D\uDD34 Fluvanna 12.5%
\uD83D\uDD34 Mathews 11.5%
\uD83D\uDD34 Northumberland 11.5%
? James City 11%
\uD83D\uDD35 Lexington 10%
\uD83D\uDD34 York 10%
\uD83D\uDD35 Northampton 9%
\uD83D\uDD34 Middlesex 9%
\uD83D\uDD34 Salem City 9%
\uD83D\uDD35 Williamsburg 9%

Election2024 Updates  (@MadAboutSkin01) October 1, 2024

The big unknown now is what impact the storm damage will have on turnout in NC and Virginia. NC was hit much harder than VA was, but there was still damage in the south west portion of Virginia. There's a lot of destruction and chaos.

The lack of federal response to the storm may well motivate NC voters likely to break for Trump even more than they were before. Likely Kamala voters (think hippies in Ashville) who have been devastated by the storm might well be discouraged or may even flip Trump.

It's hard to say exactly what will happen there as it's too early. Generally speaking, though, voting hasn't been damaged too much by storm disasters in previous cycles so we'll have to see if that remains true here.

On the issues that are top of this campaign cycle, Trump dominates:

#NEW NATIONAL poll, issues

\uD83D\uDD34 Illegal migration: Trump+14 (57%-43%)
\uD83D\uDD34 Economy: Trump+12 (56%-44%)
\uD83D\uDD34 National security: Trump+10 (55%-45%)
\uD83D\uDD34 Taxes/spending: Trump+8 (54%-46%)
\uD83D\uDD34 Inflation/prices: Trump+8 (54%-46%)
\uD83D\uDD34 Crime: Trump+6 (53%-47%)

Leger | Sept. 27-29 | N=1,010LV https://t.co/IM1vMOLZMZ

Eric Daugherty  (@EricLDaugh) October 1, 2024

It's exceedingly rare to see a candidate who is losing on all the major issues actually win the election.

Among PENNSYLVANIA voters, who is better for your financial situation?
\uD83D\uDD34 Trump: 51% (+7)
\uD83D\uDD35 Harris: 44%

Among Independents:
\uD83D\uDD34 Trump: 50% (+12)
\uD83D\uDD35 Harris: 38%

Emerson College | Sept. 27-28 | N=1,000LV https://t.co/2nZt0bLz9N

Eric Daugherty  (@EricLDaugh) October 1, 2024

The mountains of NC have a bunch of wonderful red voters.  With things as they are, if those people can not or don't vote, it could swing NC to blue.  I am pretty sure people in Asheville (HARD BLUE) will be able to all vote no problem.  This could be a major issue come election day.

I don't think Kamala has a path to victory unless she wins PA.

It is increasingly looking like she will not be able to:

PENNSYLVANIA - Change in Voter Registration by Party since 2020

63 of 67 counties shifted Republican, current as of 9/30/2024 update pic.twitter.com/1p416eBoBm

Seth Keshel  (@RealSKeshel) October 3, 2024

Bullshit.  Just because the propaganda machine wants people to think climate change is popular talking to actual people proves it isn’t.  

That doesn’t mean that they won’t use the propaganda machine to justify their cheating.

No, she didn't win it, but she did good enough to not lose it badly.

Numbers out of Nevada:

NEVADA  

Change in voter registration by party since 2020  Most significant is Clark County, where more than 71% of the state's voters are registered.  

14 of 17 county equivalents shift Republican in four years. Of note, there are three heavily GOP counties that have a slight… pic.twitter.com/rjCPTb8vmT

Seth Keshel  (@RealSKeshel) October 3, 2024

More on the state of play in Virginia:

VIRGINIA EV TURNOUT COMPARISON, REVISTED

I've been checking 62 larger jurisdictions in Virginia which in the aggregate voted 54.5-43.5% for Joe Biden, and found there WAS a continuing enthusiasm differential between "red" and "blue" counties in early voting:
(1/)

John Couvillon  (@WinWithJMC) October 7, 2024

Virginia is significant to watch because the trends seen in Va will point to movements in other states as well. The follow-on posts to that tweet do a good job of laying out why.

I don't know that losing western NC due to logistics would be enough to swing the state or even the nation, but it sort of has my attention now.

I am genuinely grieved that we can't even think about humanitarian aid in purely humanitarian terms, instead of thinking about the political impact of neglecting the red end of a state. But here we are.

Vote early if you can

Polymarket has shifted from Harris to Trump in a significant way.

If Democratic internals (now confirmed as true) have Harris -3 in WI and Trump is now tied or +1 in districts Biden carried by 10+ points in NY in 2020, there's no chance she's +3 nationally.

It doesn’t matter what propaganda @SienaResearch puts out.

Look at their record \uD83D\uDC47. pic.twitter.com/VBQqwyioU5

David Giglio  (@DavidGiglioCA) October 8, 2024

Again, more signs of what I said was highly likely earlier on. I think Trump takes Wisconsin this cycle. I think Michigan follows suit. If Trump is legitimately winning in PA, WI, or MI then it is most likely he will take all of them.

Without PA, Harris doesn't have a realistic path to the WH.

Even with the disaster, Trump is going to win in NC.

Some of the same demographic trends we see in the rust belt states is also in play in AZ and NV. If he wins AZ he most likely wins NV, too. If Trump wins AZ he will likely do so with sufficient coat tails to bring Kari Lake across the finish line as well.

Even more interesting in the data above is the NY numbers. If Trump even gets close in NY, it will be as a result of low propensity voters, independents, and even frustrated democrats coming out for him in numbers that will shock the system and portend a beating unlike anything since 1984.

If that trend is happening in NY, odds are it will also herald Trump pulling VA out of his hat, too. VA is a tough one because of how much DC pollution infests our beloved commonwealth. But if that trend of low propensity and independents going heavily Trump holds, then it likely means he has a good chance of carrying Virginia with enough coat tails for Cao to beat Kaine. Kaine's debate performance was abysmal and that might matter to enough independents and undecideds to tip in Cao's favor. Virginia will come down to the DC garbage and university professor shitbirds (DKProf excluded) vs. the working class and middle class folks in the rest of the state. Trump's inroads especially with working class black men and hispanics can make a massive difference in cutting down the margins in the big blue population centers of Richmond and VA Beach/Norfolk.

As crazy as it sounds, we're looking at the possibility that Trump carries the popular vote in the country. If that happens it's a political earthquake and my "Trump wins Virginia" map above is the floor, not the ceiling. Luckily I have a pretty good bet on the spread of the electoral college margin over on Predictit.

O Karnac, will Trump win NY?

My prognostication is that on election night we're told some of the "swing" states are too close to call and then Kamala is ruled the winner a day or two later.  

The Washington Cartel is not going to risk long prison sentences by allowing a revenge-thirsty, justice-seeking, Trump to return to office.

Earlier I mentioned maybe Maine could be in play if the working class surge is as big as some say. Well, more evidence that it might just be:

Maine Voter Registration by Party Change since 2020

Data from last update (June, so this leaves a lot to the imagination)

Split districts denoted in legend below totals - one of two states that splits electoral votes and gives 2 to the statewide winner.

*ME-1 getting bluer,… pic.twitter.com/9YSicCSkLp

Seth Keshel  (@RealSKeshel) October 8, 2024

I think Harris takes Michigan. The state is run by women

Seth Keshel is an excellent find.

The data he's sharing is fascinating.

Link?

I've never heard of the guy (or at least have no memory of him) and when I google his name all the results I get are for him being an 'election denier'. lol.

Click JW777's Twitter link above me.

I’ve been watching the polls, in comparison with the polls in 2016 and 2020 very closely.

People are correct, the polls aren’t accurate.

But they are a good political windsock, and indicate which way the winds are blowing.

By all indication, they are blowing very strongly in the direction of Trump at the moment.

As such, I’m fairly confident we will see a Trump victory in November. Confident enough I’m gonna bet my life savings on it? Not quite. But still confident.

I'm certainly considered a debbie downer, I don't see Trump winning Va. he will certainly do better than the 10% loss in 20, but he won't win. Sadly that window licking piece of fucking shit Kaine will win again also.
I do believe, barring something catastrophic happening, Trump will win the EC, I just don't know what the number will be.

I've been giving Drudge the clicks just to compare the headlines to Rantingly.  They've been VERY nervous the last week, Trump is on all 3 columns sometimes.

Bingo.

Trump has polled significantly lower than his actual performance in the election. The polls in 2020 were wildly inaccurate pronouncing Trump losing by double digits in states where he either won or narrowly lost.

When you dig into the samples used in this cycle and how they're made up, it's clear that very few have learned anything from the misses in 2016 and 2020.

So the polls are just as broken...only now they're showing Trump stronger than in the prior two cycles. Which means Kamela is in deep, deep trouble.

We're starting to see capitulation on some things now. As an example, they are starting to conclude that the Ohio senate race isn't going to be close and Sherod Brown is going to lose badly...which is what one should expect in Ohio where Trump has won both prior cycles and is likely to win this time by double digits.

Exactly.  It's still data it just has to be INTERPRETED like any other set of data.

Thanks guys. Agreed with all of the above - it's looking more and more like we might pull this off.

But I hate even saying that because right now is when we need to be head-down and fighting life our lives depend on it. Don't stop swimming just because the coast guard rescue boat is within sight.

Being down marginally in the polls would be incentive to VOTE .

It means that we have an opening and we need to exploit it.

IMO, this election will be decided by unforced errors from both campaigns.  We've seen a whole series of them this year, and there's still time for one or two more.

We're currently seeing one in the Biden / Harris reaction to the devastation in TN and NC.   TBD if the hurricane response in FL will generate another one.

That said, I agree w/ JW's assessment on PA.  Just a gut assessment from going back & forth to the Harrisburg & Philly areas this summer & fall.

I’m here for the Trump after victory after party.

Crying liberals, jubilant conservatives, it will be like Christmas in November.