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OH, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:13:35 PM EDT
[#1]
Finally...
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:17:12 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: The only use of conventional bombs that ever broke the will of a nation was the Spanish train bombings in 2003. Bombing the Russians would harden their populace against what is now a very real threat. Or would you surrender if the Mexicans blew up small areas of El Paso? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By cryo_tech: But we won't. It would be nice to see them have some munitions that would break Russian will though. Cruise missies for one. Aslo a few Russian population border cities burning would be nice. War is fine for the Russians until they're in shelters getting bombed The only use of conventional bombs that ever broke the will of a nation was the Spanish train bombings in 2003. Bombing the Russians would harden their populace against what is now a very real threat. Or would you surrender if the Mexicans blew up small areas of El Paso? Use of precision weapons on Russian cities would be folly by Ukraine. If they had them, they'd be better spent on military targets, airfields, munitions depots, ships, etc.. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:18:31 PM EDT
[#3]
  
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UKR
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:19:24 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: The Ukrainians want the Russians out of their country, pure and simple. And, they're willing to fight to make that happen. Nobody gives a damn about Putin and face-saving. What matters is booting Russia back to its own borders and removing them as a world power. The way this conflict ends is in Russia's defeat. This needs to happen now instead of in the future when he rebuilds and threatens Poland next time or the Baltics. There is no escaping WW3 unless Russia is defeated now via conventional warfare. We and NATO are engaged in the battle whether we like it or not. It just so happens we're letting the Ukrainians take the fight to the Russians instead of Poland and the Baltic countries having to fight on theirs. If we had the ukrainian fighting spirit in the afghan army we never would have had the fall of afghanistan. Seeing allies fight on their own against a "superior" foe is refreshing. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:20:07 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Doesn't matter what it says. Paying in rubles is a non-starter and isn't going to happen. If Russia cuts them off, they're cutting their own throat. Putin can force his country to survive this more effectively than their customers can put up with it. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:20:20 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:20:36 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By michigan66: In a word? Yes. Ike was right about the Military-Industrial complex. Doesn't mean Russia/USSR was never a threat, but plenty of folks made their fortunes "fighting" them. Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX)NYSE: RTX IEX Real-Time Price USD 101.35 -1.08 (-1.05%) Mar 28, 2022 3:20 PM EDT - Market open |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:21:32 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-rbAWYAISW0R?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-t50XMAgqWsf?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-vZRXoAMrF2k?format=jpg&name=large That will probably what gets WWIII started. A loose mine and a NATO ship. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:22:15 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HiramRanger: Sounds like we need to hand over some F-22s and F-35s with "specially trained pilots" to Ukraine. Never let your enemy dictate the terms of your actions. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HiramRanger: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Sounds like we need to hand over some F-22s and F-35s with "specially trained pilots" to Ukraine. Never let your enemy dictate the terms of your actions. Is this real? Did Armenia actually transfer these 4 jets and pilots? To use against Ukraine?? Wow |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:23:10 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: Ukraine just needs to agree to disarm so that the country that just invaded them despite assuring them they wouldn't won't invade them in future under a new assurance. Finally... someone who fully understands international diplomacy... 
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:23:25 PM EDT
[#11]
I'm at a restaurant trying to read the CC on the TV that's on MSNBC. Am I reading this wrong? It looks like the press is actually tearing into Brandon and there is a headline saying he now reaffirming the regime change comment.
WTF |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:23:57 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JCoop: I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that the Russia merely said it was giving up on those cities but was really rebuilding troop strength and reorganizing strategy. The fact that they are digging in and not retreating would tend to fortify that theory. Yep. Plan "B" is my guess. When russia is defending from fortified positions and ukraine is forced to attempt to breach it will be a lot worse for the Ukraine troops. Ukraine needs to eradicate re-supply routes and let them stay in their fortified positions. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:25:08 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mancow: I'm at a restaurant trying to read the CC on the TV that's on MSNBC. Am I reading this wrong? It looks like the press is actually tearing into Brandon and there is a headline saying he now reaffirming the regime change comment. WTF He's actually saying he didn't say any of that, and what he did say, no one believes he'd do.. Or something. He's hard to understand |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:26:46 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlabamaFan64: I’m curious about how quickly the sanctions could start affecting Russia’s nuclear arsenal. I know it’s expensive to maintain these weapons, but how long before they degrade to the point of not being viable. I assume the Russians likely have kept funding up for these weapons, but at some point they should have priorities where they have to use the money elsewhere. I doubt those nukes have seen much proper maintenance. Add in bouncing around on the road in a tube launcher, temperature extremes, and general russian attitude. Not sure how many would actually work. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:27:19 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: It was scarier when there were 5 times the amount of warheads. Now it is the post launch supply chain failures that will kill everyone, not radiation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: BUT MUH NUKULAR WARRRR! It was scarier when there were 5 times the amount of warheads. Now it is the post launch supply chain failures that will kill everyone, not radiation. The denuclearization process is an interesting psychological change versus the cold war. Does Russia only have hundreds that are functioning and is that still the deterrent it once was? Did we really develop out Star Wars and it’s not as large a threat? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:27:41 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: I doubt those nukes have seen much proper maintenance. Add in bouncing around on the road in a tube launcher, temperature extremes, and general russian attitude. Not sure how many would actually work. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By AlabamaFan64: I’m curious about how quickly the sanctions could start affecting Russia’s nuclear arsenal. I know it’s expensive to maintain these weapons, but how long before they degrade to the point of not being viable. I assume the Russians likely have kept funding up for these weapons, but at some point they should have priorities where they have to use the money elsewhere. I doubt those nukes have seen much proper maintenance. Add in bouncing around on the road in a tube launcher, temperature extremes, and general russian attitude. Not sure how many would actually work. Hopefully that is the case. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:28:22 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Not really. His goal is to eliminate Ukraine, and make it russia. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:30:12 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Thats basically my take on things too. My gut instinct of how Putins plans shifted: Putin Plan A: "My build up of menacing forces on the border to ratchet up tensions will compel a weak and divided west / ukraine to go for quick negotiation to solve the Ukrainian nato / crimea problem once and for all. No one wants to play poker with the Vladster" Putin Plan B: "In unlikely case this doesn't work, lightning war of regime change. Glorious Red Army TM will sweep like through Ukrainian Nazis and race traitors like a scythe through so much wheat, and funnyman puppet zelenski will flee to europe. The war will be over before the West can respond, and the new Totally Legit pro-Russian ruler of Ukraine will strike a lasting peace." Putin Plan C: "Fuck fuck fuck, thats a lot of ATGMs. And most of the last decades military money has been stollen by totally not me.... time to channel my idol, the OG Man of Steel himself, and just send everything I have into the meat grinder in hopes of smashing the Ukrainians teeth with our bones, then overwhelm them with our Orc hordes and mass MLRS dakka." Putin Plan D: "Fuck, these Ukrainians can endure more suffering than a Dostoevsky novel, and my economy is imploding because the only thing we produce domestically is oil and razor blades. Lets double down on smashing their cites and hope they come to the negotiating table, and if not we'll snag what territory we can by May 9th then declare victory." I think one of the main reasons this war is so insane and poorly executed is that Putin did not expect Plan A to fail, and certainly did not then expect Plan B to fail as well. And so the war has been less a carefully planned lethal ballet, and more a slap dash improvisation on the ground...using a military command structure not suited to improvisation. You really don't have a clue. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:31:31 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: That will probably what gets WWIII started. A loose mine and a NATO ship. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-rbAWYAISW0R?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-t50XMAgqWsf?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-vZRXoAMrF2k?format=jpg&name=large That will probably what gets WWIII started. A loose mine and a NATO ship. Yep. Well into international waters. Romania found it so no Russia disinformation. Any ship that hits a mine will be assumed to be from Ukrania. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:33:03 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: What does Ukraine get out of this deal? Why would they accept it? Why should they give up anything? Russia's military ability has become significantly degraded. If Belarus were to openly (or quietly) tell Zelensky they were going to sit on their hands, a bunch of Ukrainian troops would move south and east, and drive the invaders out. This deal would only be worth considering - not accepting, but just considering - if Russia throws in some reparations to rebuild what they destroyed. Say, free gas for 25 years, plus 15% of all Russian gas & oil export income? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident: Biden Administration is pushing for Ukraine to make a deal with Russia. That deal would likely involve Ukraine seceding the eastern sliver of the Donbass including Mariupol and recognizing the sovereignty of those separatist regions. It would also more likely involve Ukraine pledging not to join NATO (although there could be a sunset on that pledge). Frankly, I think that's where this situation is heading anyways. The only question is how many people need to die before it gets there. However, a cease fire and negotiated peace does NOT serve the best interests of the USA in the long term, because ideally the Russians would be bleed white for a number of months more. I think though that the Biden Administration sees the writing on the wall. We and the rest of the world will have serious agricultural issues this year if the Russian sanctions are kept in place. The Democrats will also be forced to drill for domestic oil and natural gas if the Russian sanctions are kept in place. Food and gas shortages would be catastrophic for the Democrats in the midterms and even in 2024 if the Ukraine conflict stretches out into 2023, which it very well might. This disappointing and unfortunate fiasco though has strengthened the GOP's political position. The Democrats 11 seat majority in the House and the 1 seat majority in the Senate is absolutely certain to be lost in the midterms. If the GOP has a solid united message of hammering the Biden Administration on Gas and Food costs they may even be able to get a super majority in the Senate. What does Ukraine get out of this deal? Why would they accept it? Why should they give up anything? Russia's military ability has become significantly degraded. If Belarus were to openly (or quietly) tell Zelensky they were going to sit on their hands, a bunch of Ukrainian troops would move south and east, and drive the invaders out. This deal would only be worth considering - not accepting, but just considering - if Russia throws in some reparations to rebuild what they destroyed. Say, free gas for 25 years, plus 15% of all Russian gas & oil export income? Belarus would have to expel the Russian troops on it's soil for Ukraine to move any forces off that border. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:33:07 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mancow: I'm at a restaurant trying to read the CC on the TV that's on MSNBC. Am I reading this wrong? It looks like the press is actually tearing into Brandon and there is a headline saying he now reaffirming the regime change comment. WTF Brandon quote look like this? Ssjrfjoo ghursfhir hdghyrvk at jgdgji?! If not it is not something he said. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:33:51 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Putin can force his country to survive this more effectively than their customers can put up with it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By planemaker: Doesn't matter what it says. Paying in rubles is a non-starter and isn't going to happen. If Russia cuts them off, they're cutting their own throat. Putin can force his country to survive this more effectively than their customers can put up with it. Not really. The US and others can supply a great deal of NG to the continent, and spring is here so demand is down. Putin chose the wrong time of year to start this. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:33:54 PM EDT
[#23]
So Biden says its his personal feelings but its not a policy?
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:34:34 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dirtyharriett: Finally... someone who fully understands international diplomacy... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dirtyharriett: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Ukraine just needs to agree to disarm so that the country that just invaded them despite assuring them they wouldn't won't invade them in future under a new assurance. Finally... someone who fully understands international diplomacy... Russia's already said they started the war so a war wouldn't start. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:35:21 PM EDT
[#25]
https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626 |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:36:48 PM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:37:30 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: That will probably what gets WWIII started. A loose mine and a NATO ship. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-rbAWYAISW0R?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-t50XMAgqWsf?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-vZRXoAMrF2k?format=jpg&name=large That will probably what gets WWIII started. A loose mine and a NATO ship. Refurbishing an 80 year old mine for actual use is crazy. Lol didn't know they still used ww2 era mines. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:38:15 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:39:48 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Refurbishing an 80 year old mine for actual use is crazy. Lol didn't know they still used ww2 era mines. It will kill a Russian ship dead as a CAPTOR mine. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:40:12 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626 Joining the EU would mean that it becomes aligned with the West. The Russians are just stalling. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:40:15 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
Just saw on the chans a video of guys in blue armbands stabbing a Russian soldier in the eyes. Lots of bad shit going on. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:40:33 PM EDT
[#32]
yeah...that's what the Russians did in 1956.....all claimed they will be leaving and Hungary will be neutral like Austria...then one fucken week later..they reinvaded with 100k troops.....and thousands of tanks that never left until 1991.
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:41:00 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Refurbishing an 80 year old mine for actual use is crazy. Lol didn't know they still used ww2 era mines. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By Banditman: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-rbAWYAISW0R?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-t50XMAgqWsf?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO8-vZRXoAMrF2k?format=jpg&name=large That will probably what gets WWIII started. A loose mine and a NATO ship. Refurbishing an 80 year old mine for actual use is crazy. Lol didn't know they still used ww2 era mines. Lots of countries still use ancient sea mines. They're still effective. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:46:13 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jozsi: yeah...that's what the Russians did in 1956.....all claimed they will be leaving and Hungary will be neutral like Austria...then one fucken week later..they reinvaded with 100k troops.....and thousands of tanks that never left until 1991. Yeah. But that was then. They're different now. Honest. It's not like they invaded when they said they wouldn't, or anything silly like that. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:49:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: R0N]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Refurbishing an 80 year old mine for actual use is crazy. Lol didn't know they still used ww2 era mines. Apparently naval minds are found floating ever so often. Interesting thing I was told by a Navy JAG at the OPNAV that just finding or striking a mine a sea may not be an act of war. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:50:06 PM EDT
[#36]
 Ukrainians Seize Russian Tanks After Retaking Village |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:51:51 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Apparently naval minds are found floating ever so often. Interesting thing I was told by a Navy JAG at the OPNAV that just finding or striking a mine a sea may not be an act of war. They're very common in the Baltic. If it were an act of war, we'd all be at war with each other by now. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:52:39 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryNice shot dead center in the optics. |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:52:45 PM EDT
[#39]
OK, we're nuking the Russians! my morning coffee is on the line.
In Nicaragua, coffee farmers are slashing fertilizer purchases just to make ends meet. In Guatemala, growers are diluting nutrients to stretch scarce supplies. And in Costa Rica, producers are betting that their soil holds enough lingering nutrients to carry them through the next planting season. Small-scale farmers in some of the world's richest coffee-producing regions are struggling to find alternatives to counter soaring fertilizer costs that threaten their livelihoods, even considering desperate measures that could ultimately undermine a much-needed global rebound in supplies. Some are considering organic waste as a cheap substitute to nitrogen, phosphorous and potash fertilizers, even though such a move could significantly reduce yields. Higher fertilizer prices add to the burden of rising costs of agricultural materials that are squeezing farmers as food inflation soars to new heights. Russia and neighboring Belarus are among the world's top suppliers of crop nutrients, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has only added to the global run-up caused by supply snags and output woes. Prices for arabica, the high-end variety favored by coffee chains, have changed little this year, lagging escalating fuel and fertilizer prices. The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Index has jumped 30% this year to a record, while an index for potash in Brazil has also hit new highs after surging 36% since January. With coffee prices lagging the costs of such key agricultural inputs, smaller coffee producers have become particularly vulnerable. "The situation represents a mega emergency for our members," said Fatima Ismael, general manager of the Nicaraguan coffee cooperative Soppexcca in Jinotega. The co-op has 650 small growers, with more than a third of them women many are single mothers. Members typically buy about 800 tons of fertilizer each year, which helps them grow enough coffee beans to produce nearly 17,000 bags. A bag equals 132 pounds. Soppexcca now expects its nutrient purchases to be cut in half. The co-op has a program to help women develop orchards as a supplement to feed their families and sell excess production at local markets, but that's at risk with costs for crop inputs and fuel more than doubling since last year. "This is a big setback for our strategies," Ismael said. "Producers are very anxious, there's a lot of uncertainty." Guatemalan growers are considering tapping organic compost materials including chicken manure, household waste and coffee-cherry pulp to cut back on fertilizers, according to Juan Luis Barrios, a grower and president of the country's National Coffee Association. Others are considering the use of faster-acting water soluble nutrients, which may have smaller economic benefits and outcomes that vary from grower to grower, he said. Costa Rica's coffee industry is scrutinizing soil content in the main producing regions in hopes of reducing the need to apply nutrients on the ground, according to Xinia Chaves, executive director of the Costa Rican Coffee Institute. Even so, insufficient inputs will reduce some growers' yields and their competitiveness while raising the odds for plant disease that thrives in tropical climates, she said. Soaring costs are inflicting "a mental and economic blow to everybody," said Rodrigo Vargas, president of Doka Estate in Costa Rica. His company needs 1,400 tons of fertilizer to produce about 40,000 bags of coffee each year. He mixes seven components together for his fertilizer, which he applies four times a year. The price for his formula has doubled since last year, so he's now considering a less complicated mix, even though he knows it could hurt yields. While global coffee prices have increased 86% in the past two years, adverse weather and higher shipping costs have kept margins for many smaller farmers under pressure. Some international traders who normally ship in containers have turned to bulk vessels with the boxes hard to find. The coffee market will start to panic by the third quarter, according to Christian Wolthers, who runs a Florida-based importer. Brazil, the top coffee grower and biggest importer of crop nutrients, only has enough fertilizer supply for three to six months, he said. Global coffee production will fall 2.1% to 167.2 million bags for the current marketing year, pulled down by a 7.1% decline in arabica beans, according to the latest outlook from the International Coffee Organization. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:54:48 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: This is about erasing Ukraine, and making it russia. This other stuff is bullshit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Walleyeguy24: Based on maps, it looks like Crimea has a bridge to Russia in the east. I don't understand why Russia needs the seaports in Southern Ukraine. Sevastopol should have a warm deep water port. Unless the bridge from Crimea to Russia is some 2 lane wooden piece of shit, I don't understand why those other ports would be so critical. For the costs of this war they could have built a hell of a nice bridge, pipelines, water/sewer, rails, etc. This is about erasing Ukraine, and making it russia. This other stuff is bullshit. Exactly. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:55:24 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rebel31: So Biden says its his personal feelings but its not a policy?
Shut. Up. Brandon. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:56:42 PM EDT
[#42]
all we need now in this mess is Gavrilo Princip and a Subway on a corner.
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Posted: 3/28/2022 3:57:58 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MBUZICHOMA: Yep. Well into international waters. Romania found it so no Russia disinformation. Any ship that hits a mine will be assumed to be from Ukrania. Why, because one was found and destroyed in the past that was probably Ukrainian? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 4:01:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Dracster]
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Why, because one was found and destroyed in the past that was probably Ukrainian? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By MBUZICHOMA: Yep. Well into international waters. Romania found it so no Russia disinformation. Any ship that hits a mine will be assumed to be from Ukrania. Why, because one was found and destroyed in the past that was probably Ukrainian? And it was clearly labeled.  Poland should paint red stars on their MiGs. Then Ukraine can say they captured them.
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Posted: 3/28/2022 4:01:14 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Eight_Ring:
Russian moves in Ukraine seem bafflingly short-sighted How could the Russians--Putin in particular--fail to calculate the inevitable downstream implications of their actions? It makes no sense--almost--unless something is missing from the analysis. Here is an intelligence analyst who asserts that Russia (for some reason) is fighting in Ukraine with its fingers, and not a fist. He seems to be fluent with Russian military capabilities and inventories, most especially their nuclear weapons, which is his area of expertise. I can't vouch for his analysis--but he seems to know what he is talking about, and his credentials seem strong. ARFCOM has assured me that EMP is a non-issue, but he seems to be perfectly familiar with the technical specs for military-grade EMP hardening, and asserts that it is not good enough to prevent incapacitation by Russian EMP weapons. But perhaps ARFCOM knows better? Lastly, he cites cultural inadequacies in the way the West perceives the world so as to leave it blind to the Russian pragmatic world view's intentions. Anyway--it is food for thought. Hopefully he is completely wrong. If not, we'll probably know in the next couple weeks. The Nuclear 9/11 In Our Future... Hour-long Interview:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuIVYKReWPAI don't agree that Russia is fighting with its fingers not its fist. There is evidence they've failed to achieve key strategic goals, like control of government in Kiev, total air superiority. Either of those two things would change the situation radically. Both of them together are the whole difference between a quick win and and unwinnable quagmire. Second, I don't think Russia's moves are so baffling. Putin has completely quashed dissent in Russian society, has rewarded utter corruption at all levels (or at least ignored it), and has been shown to promote personal loyalty more than wise counsel. We know that the invasion plans were a very closely held secret, even within Russian military command. If the few who knew of the plans all believed that air superiority and a decapitation strike were likely successes, what mystery is there about their actions? Again, either one of those things being the case would dramatically change the current situation. If they had achieved immediate and total air superiority, the decapitation strike could have failed, and all Ukraine's ground forces would have failed to hold off the invaders. If the decapitation strike succeeded, no military action at all would have been needed once Russia installed a caretaker puppet. The comments that have been publicly available show extreme hubris. Pride goeth before a fall, as they say. Putin had so little trust in his commanders, they apparently didn't even wargame for critical strategic failures. Is this any different than the linked article above showing critical strategic failures in US strategic nuclear command issues? We have a plan, and no credible alternate. Same with Russia. Where that article falls short is, what happens in the case of a tactical nuclear weapon use, rather than a strategic attack? I realize that's outside the scope of the article, but it seems like a highly relevant question in the current situation. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 4:03:19 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryOriginally Posted By PurpleOtter: The most severe ground fighting in Ukraine's war against Russia has shifted east, with the most intense combat now centered in the country's Kharkiv, Luhansk and Mariupol sectors, official statements and news reports on Monday said. Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk region defense command, said that Russian Federation (RF) forces shelled the towns Severodonetsk and Rubezhnoe overnight. RF forces attempted five "massed attacks" in Luhansk region on Sunday, he said. UAF forces turned back the assaults, burning RF tanks, armored personnel carriers and trucks, he said. A Monday morning, March 28, statement from the Army General Staff (AGS) credited Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) units in Luhansk sector with the destruction of two RF tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and a truck. The important road intersection city Izium has become a focus for much of the fighting. According to Ukraine Army statements, on Sunday UAF units captured three villages controlling roads leading to Izium: Topolske (to the southwest), as well as Sukha Kamianka and Kamian'ka (both the south-east). Fighting was continuing, the statement said. The AGS also reported multiple RF attacks on UAF defenses holding the perimeter of the surrounded city Mariupol, crediting units there with the elimination of 150 RF soldiers, two tanks, and eight armored personnel carriers. Mariupol's defenses, now locked in the fourth week of a siege by RF forces, are held by a combined force drawn from the UAF 36 Marine Brigade, the Azov National Guard Regiment and local police. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Sunday evening interview with independent RF media said that in past weeks he offered UAF forces holding Mariupol the option of surrendering or attempting to escape the encirclement. He said they refused, preferring to defend the city to the last. Regarding the bolded part, I'd be surprised if a break-out would even be possible, especially without horrendous casualties. While probably not as bad as Dien Bien Phu, in that case, breakouts resulted in most attempting it being killed or disappearing, and only one unit, an armored cavalry platoon, managed to breakout and make it back as an intact unit. I'm not sure much better could be expected in this case. Staying and fighting would probably harm the enemy more and result in most of the men suffering nearly the same fate. A fall is inevitable, of course. No place can withstand a siege indefinitely without relief. Hopefully they can hold out longer than a couple more weeks. It'd be nice if Ukraine could break through and relieve them, but it doesn't seem like that's feasible, at least not in any realistic timeframe. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 4:03:51 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: My guess is they will push towards Kherson, to try and cut.off Crimea and go north. They have to reinforce izium though Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By ad_nauseam: Originally Posted By Firefly1032: I know Ukraine is causing substantial casualties on the Russian but I don’t get the perception that Ukraine is “winning”, certainly not enough to re-capture Crimea or LHR/DHR. . The definition of Ukraine "winning" is them not losing. The fact that the Russian Federation gave up on Kiev and presumably on Lvov and other such cities is a sign of victory. Ukraine can regroup and then concentrate on retaking Mariupol and maybe Crimea. Now it's a moot point not to. My guess is they will push towards Kherson, to try and cut.off Crimea and go north. They have to reinforce izium though This was my thought regarding the east, most Ukrainian gains have been localized though some have had strategic importance such as cutting off supply routes to the Russian forces east of Kyiv. However, Russia is making gains in and around Izyum and other eastern strategic locations that all serve to shorten the front Russia has to cover. Once Mariupol falls I believe you will see an immediate pivot north/northwest to cut off those UA defenders rather than west towards Odessa. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 4:04:06 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: Cutting Ukraine off from access to the coast will be economically painful to Ukraine. A lot of their exports go through Odessa, so it's a very important port. It will also allow them a land bridge all the way to Romania, which sucks for NATO. Right. They will never consent to giving up the coast. It's would be economic suicide. BTW, the bridge over the Kertch straight was an act of war in 2019, as it does not allow many ships to pass through and is easily blocked. Ships specifically destined for Mariupol. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 4:05:58 PM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 4:07:42 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
Aw keep doubling down vlad |
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