User Panel
Disengaging
|
|
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: They would be. The question is whether they would make a difference at this point, and whether we can afford to burn through them. View Quote If you can't answer "would they make a difference at this point" you are not nearly as intelligent as you try to come off as. |
|
|
Originally Posted By AeroEngineer: Exactly. There are detain high value targets (the Patriot battery itself) where trading a Patriot for a POS Shaheed is worth it. Not because of the value of the Shaheed itself but because of the value of the Shaheed’s target, So far in this conflict the Ukrainian military leadership has generally been pretty savvy with what they’re doing. I’m going to assume they understand the value of a Patriot missile, snd are weighing this in for target dejection decisions. View Quote The Patriot battery is itself defended by other AD, they are not using it to shoot down incoming drones. |
|
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: Emotion has very little value in strategic warfare. ADA missiles are depleting fast across the west and those low value targets will never stop. The 1000-1500lb missiles arent produced in batches of a thousand at a time and cause exponentially more damage than a 40-60lb OWA can. You seem to be of the mistaken understanding that the flow of PGMs like Patriot will not end. It absolutely will. View Quote I don't disagree that there is a finite level of pgm's in inventory. Lack of inventory would tend to be caused by poor planning I would think. When your military is more concerned with politics and being woke than national defense, this is what you end up with. |
|
World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
|
Disengaging
|
|
|
World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
|
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0HSG1pX0AA2NCP?format=jpg&name=medium View Quote Does the T-72 “Russian” come with a spring loaded pop off turret? 😂 |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By RockNwood: Good. BTW, none of those Chechen commanders are missing meals! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0HZhgIXwAIIKL7?format=jpg&name=small Good. BTW, none of those Chechen commanders are missing meals! All larpers. |
|
|
Disengaging
|
|
|
Disengaging
|
|
|
|
|
|
Originally Posted By Logcutter: You seem concerned. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Logcutter: Originally Posted By daemon734: I don't have an agenda, this just supports facts that I have been trying to convey in this thread multiple times. Facts that are consistently denied but always end up becoming proven. Context doesn't change a finite resource. Patriot is the most finite resource they have. If deep strike OWAs are threatening the launchers, they need to make corrections to either displace more often or defend them better. They do not have the assets to waste. This war will be won or lost in the deep fires game, and Ukraine is currently losing that. The band aid holding it together is Patriot. That band aid will be ripped off a lot sooner than most think. You seem concerned. |
|
|
Originally Posted By Auto5guy: I pray that what we are seeing is putin presiding over the total destruction of russia as a world power. I pray that history will see him as a strong man buffoon on the level of Mussolini, a clown who's personal ego and absurd ambitions destroyed his entire country. I pray he meets the same end. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fz5gajTWcAo4jUQ?format=jpg&name=small View Quote Exactly. All the Putin fluffers are going to be sad to see history expose Russia and Putin as you describe. Probably won’t change anything in Russia but hopefully at least Europe comes to see the truth of their boogeyman/bagman. |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
|
Maniac has responded with a scornful remark
USA
|
Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: lol, ya'll act like the man is spewing Rusky propaganda. He's just making an observation about the situation that seems to be fairy fucking accurate. View Quote He left "just making an observation" a long time ago. He's well worth $24/year which is a shame. |
|
World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
|
Coyote with 40 people crammed into a minivan gets into a chase with DPS, Paco over estimates his driving abilities and *whmmo!* the Astrovan of Immigration becomes a Pinata of Pain, hurling broken bodies like so many tasty pieces of cheap candy...
|
How about some solution ideas instead of just arguing about the problem?
Identifying a problem or set of problems and lecturing ad nauseam about it doesn’t really help. All this brain power would be better used in coming up with solutions and counters to problem sets. What can be done in the next week, in a month, in 3 months, by the end of 2023, etc to make a real impact across the matrix of problems? |
|
|
Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: lol, ya'll act like the man is spewing Rusky propaganda. He's just making an observation about the situation that seems to be fairy fucking accurate. View Quote Not really. Slow walking aid hasn't been helpful, and longer range precision guided stuff from others has been helpful. Stormshadow comes to mind. |
|
|
Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: lol, ya'll act like the man is spewing Rusky propaganda. He's just making an observation about the situation that seems to be fairy fucking accurate. View Quote Not really. Slow walking aid hasn't been helpful, and longer range precision guided stuff from others has been helpful. Stormshadow comes to mind. |
|
|
Originally Posted By lorazepam: Opinion is not fact. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By daemon734: Just because you don't like facts doesn't mean it's condescending. Opinion is not fact. Exactly The statement. "Emotion has very little value in strategic warfare." Is an implication that the person you were talking to was being emotional. That's your incorrect OPINION not FACT. And it is indeed very condescending |
|
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: You are referencing resources that are in even shorter supply. Hence why there is nothing at the FLOT supporting the offensive. Check oryx as to how many nasam and Iris systems have been given, bounce across when they were handed off, and assume some probably have been lost at this point. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By Prime: 🤷♂️ I am not as confidently knowledgeable about every country’s Patriot stocks. They’re also doing pretty well with S-300, and that’s not mentioning NASAMS, IRIS-T, Gepard, and MANPADS. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/IMG_3336-2872349.jpg You are referencing resources that are in even shorter supply. Hence why there is nothing at the FLOT supporting the offensive. Check oryx as to how many nasam and Iris systems have been given, bounce across when they were handed off, and assume some probably have been lost at this point. This is what everybody's talking about- there have to be assumptions in these calculations, and you round down. We get it, that's cool, do your thing. You think AIMs are in shorter supply than the PACs? Almighty? I won't assume everyone else's motives for being in this thread. Me, I don't know what will happen, and that's why I like it. Ukraine, like the rest of the world, including Russia, has constrained resources. Much of the western world is finally pitching in the way they should've for the entire Cold War. Ukraine chooses to protect apartment buildings when maybe the right choice is not to. That's why I like this conflict. It is still, even without Prigozhin, the world's greatest soap opera. Maybe just sit back and enjoy the show. |
|
“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione |
Originally Posted By Logcutter: Not really. Slow walking aid hasn't been helpful, and longer range precision guided stuff from others has been helpful. Stormshadow comes to mind. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Logcutter: Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: lol, ya'll act like the man is spewing Rusky propaganda. He's just making an observation about the situation that seems to be fairy fucking accurate. Not really. Slow walking aid hasn't been helpful, and longer range precision guided stuff from others has been helpful. Stormshadow comes to mind. Obamas staffers are making the decisions here. They have never had to deal with a real war and it shows. They are too stupid and naive to effectively supply a war effort. |
|
Coyote with 40 people crammed into a minivan gets into a chase with DPS, Paco over estimates his driving abilities and *whmmo!* the Astrovan of Immigration becomes a Pinata of Pain, hurling broken bodies like so many tasty pieces of cheap candy...
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: Emotion has very little value in strategic warfare. ADA missiles are depleting fast across the west and those low value targets will never stop. The 1000-1500lb missiles arent produced in batches of a thousand at a time and cause exponentially more damage than a 40-60lb OWA can. You seem to be of the mistaken understanding that the flow of PGMs like Patriot will not end. It absolutely will. View Quote Your tone is grating and equally emotional, and you refuse to answer direct questions. You're going to continue to be called a troll until you get your shit together. You keep talking about facts and objectivity, but keep skipping the provision of those items. You were asked simple questions, and dodged them. Here is your chance at redemption by answering these directly-asked questions with the facts and objectivity you have yet to actually bring to the thread: 1. How many Patriot missiles have they used? 2. What constitutes a a low value target? Links to your 5-minute searches would be welcomed. The thing is, you bring up a completely valid concern. It's a good point of discussion. You just talk like an asshole and appear to be more interested in arguing than actually making a fact-backed, convincing point. Do better. |
|
|
Originally Posted By Dracster: The S-300s are an even more finite resource that Patriots unless they have someone out in the wild, wild, West making reloads. View Quote Of course, but it's something that they started with lots of, and is by no means cutting edge stuff. It's merely included to show there are a lot of resources outside of PAC-3 to bring down Shaheds. You can find a half dozen videos of AKs doing it too, but that's obviously a low percentage option. |
|
“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione |
Disengaging
|
|
|
Since the conversation has turned to air defense and inventories and such, here's an article from last month that seems to give an overview of Ukraine's situation.
Ukraine to run out of air defense missiles, Western fighter jets needed US military expert |
|
|
Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: He left "just making an observation" a long time ago. He's well worth $24/year which is a shame. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: lol, ya'll act like the man is spewing Rusky propaganda. He's just making an observation about the situation that seems to be fairy fucking accurate. He left "just making an observation" a long time ago. He's well worth $24/year which is a shame. |
|
|
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: Yeah I'm having trouble getting worked up over it when it appears ~80% of their kills are against high value targets, especially without knowing how many of the drone engagements were done as a last resort after they may have gotten through other layers of air defense. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: https://mil.in.ua/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Polish_20230703_111331982.jpg Under the red arrow dated May 21 2023, I thought that was an aircraft dropped bomb. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/images/fab-image02.jpg https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTC8Jqxzkb8YrrlxpD4YrIuDcl69UCf6KcnEA&usqp=CAU I'm more interested in the Shahed kills, I keep getting told they don't use Patriot on drones. I never said they wouldn't unless they needed to, but the multiple aircraft, helo and Iksander kills make up for the Shahed kills. Yeah I'm having trouble getting worked up over it when it appears ~80% of their kills are against high value targets, especially without knowing how many of the drone engagements were done as a last resort after they may have gotten through other layers of air defense. Anyone latching onto muh Shaheds is hilarious! Those EW Mi-8, $10 million/ Iskander versus $1 million Patriot are incredible trade offs. But, muh Shaheds! Plus as had been pointed out to the slow learners, it isn’t just the cost disparity of drone and interceptor, but also the cost of what is being protected. Shooting a Shahed heading for a field is dumb. Shooting a Shahed headed for the Patriot battery radar or an airfield with parked aircraft is smart. Muh Shaheds demonstrates the low level thinking used by the commentator. |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Disengaging
|
|
|
Maniac has responded with a scornful remark
USA
|
Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: Didn't read that way to me, but I'll admit, I haven't read every page of the thread. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Originally Posted By Southern_Shooter80: lol, ya'll act like the man is spewing Rusky propaganda. He's just making an observation about the situation that seems to be fairy fucking accurate. He left "just making an observation" a long time ago. He's well worth $24/year which is a shame. It's been going on for months on one of the sub-forums. It's tiresome. |
|
Originally Posted By Capta: If they have to shoot Patriot to defend the Patriot battery itself obviously they will. Clearly you have an agenda to push. I suggest you consider possible explanations before jumping to conclusions that you personally want to see. View Quote I would challenge the drive by to quote posts in this thread that said “flat out” Patriot “never” engages Shaheds. That is a blatant lie. Every discussion qualifies it makes sense in some circumstances but is not optimal as SOP. Red herring. |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By PolarBear416: I don't see it. Russia is mostly striking soft targets with little military value, that kind of "deep fires game" is ineffective. When they target military infrastructure with drones they are mostly shot down with other defenses besides the Patriots. The Patriots are mostly used against expensive missiles where Russia is equally if not more limited in the supply. So this claim isn't adding to for me. View Quote Yep. Russia is lobbing $3-$10 million Islanders/Kinzhal and $1 million Patriots are blasting them. Great trade all day long. |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By Cypher15: Relevant land based missile launch tests here View Quote That is totally cool. Containerized systems. |
|
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: I'm not saying to get worked up over it at all. I'm saying we have undeniable proof that it is occurring, which was flatly denied previously. With that said, magazine depth is magazine depth regardless of whether you approve of the ratio. We've had this discussion previous to the Patriot employment where the general consensus was that targeting drones with missiles was a good thing yet now that the Ukrainians have had zero ADA supporting their offensive you guys don't seem to be able to make any correlations. But here's a spoiler alert, it's happening again, just with more expensive and harder to replace missiles. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: Yeah I'm having trouble getting worked up over it when it appears ~80% of their kills are against high value targets, especially without knowing how many of the drone engagements were done as a last resort after they may have gotten through other layers of air defense. I'm not saying to get worked up over it at all. I'm saying we have undeniable proof that it is occurring, which was flatly denied previously. With that said, magazine depth is magazine depth regardless of whether you approve of the ratio. We've had this discussion previous to the Patriot employment where the general consensus was that targeting drones with missiles was a good thing yet now that the Ukrainians have had zero ADA supporting their offensive you guys don't seem to be able to make any correlations. But here's a spoiler alert, it's happening again, just with more expensive and harder to replace missiles. Definitely not saying it didn't happen but I honestly don't recall anyone saying there was zero use of them but I do recall posts saying they thought it was pretty unlikely Ukraine was just wasting them willy nilly. And if Ukraine is prioritizing trying to protect their civilian population over their military operations, since Russia has shown more of a proclivity to target civilian population centers over military targets, I can't really fault them for making that call. All I can say is I hope this whole thing is a wake-up call to the decision makers. So far it sounds like it has been. Hopefully it's not too little too late. |
|
DeSantis 2024
|
The rate at which air defense missiles are depleted is a concern, which is no doubt why the Russians are throwing old missiles (like KH-22) and cheap drones (Shaheed) into the mix. The answer to that equation is fighter jets, like the Ukies have asked for. It doesn’t really matter whether those jets are old F16s, F18s, Gripen, or Rafale. They’re not going to be used to penetrate Russian AD, but to protect the Ukrainian rear.
That was my 0.2 Krona. Back to the purse swinging and dick measuring. |
|
|
(This is a couple days old but I can't remember if it got posted or not. The recording dude seems to be some sort of senior sargeant.)
Counterattack | The 47th brigade "Magura" breaks through the defense of the russians in the south ??????????? | 47-?? ???? "??????" ???????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????? |
|
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: I'm providing the same level of information sharing and discussion as anyone else in this thread. The only difference is its objective, which means it will be immediately challenged as a pro Russia stance. As it already is. I'm just curious as to how many times you guys can be proven wrong before you even attempt to take an objective look. View Quote Also, I don't ever remember anybody saying "not a single shithead drone has been or ever will be engaged with Patriot" when we did this whole thing 6 weeks ago. As I recall most people said they are targeting exactly how we see, mostly higher value missiles and planes, and inevitably some lower value drones because what if that low value drone strikes a high value target. |
|
"the science" /duh si-ens/ noun: progressive postmodern religious dogma not based in tested hypothesis or facts used to advance an authoritative political ideology
|
Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: It's false logic to say that a tranny's opinion/views are beyond reproach, just because a lot of straight white men have idiotic views. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Originally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By Freiheit8472: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Remember the crematoriums that were pictured way back? This gal seems to think they are being used to cover up losses and making payments to families. Grain of salt and all..... She claims to be in the Ukrainian army.
That's a tranny fyi! It's false logic to say that a tranny's opinion/views are beyond reproach, just because a lot of straight white men have idiotic views. He is in the UAF, btw. Some think those crematoria were for the Ukrainians marked for death on pre-war lists the Russians drew up. The problem. For Russia, is that they badly underestimated the number of people they needed to murder, not to mention the losses they have been taking. |
|
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: Well you typically don't round up since that would mean making them out of thin air, and historically warfare causes attrition. So how many systems were there in Oryx to start with? View Quote Generally you round down, not specifically. Oryx does not offer that level of granularity in my experience, but you're welcome to...you know...post your own work. |
|
“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione |
Originally Posted By daemon734: They absolutely are. But then again, you also think there is no Russian air superiority on the FLOT. View Quote I think it's fair to say Russia has superiority in the sense that they have the upper hand with aircraft. It's also fair to say both sides, arguably the Ukes more so, has control of their own airspace but not the ability to project air power beyond their borders in a meaningful way. That sound accurate? |
|
|
Originally Posted By DK-Prof: I definitely feel like there might be a bit of a "Whatever, let's just use the Patriots for everything." attitude among the Ukraine leadership. If it works, that's great - but if they run out because they are burning them up on cheap Iranian drones, then it's going to bite them on the ass eventually. On the other hand, if they don't have other solutions (like Gepards protecting all their sites), then it's easy to see how they end up with that mindset. So while I can see that it's potentially a huge problem on the horizon, I am not sure how much I blame them. I also wonder how centralized their decision making is. Do they have very clear policies on what to use an expensive Patriot for, and what not to use it for - or is it just up to the local unit, and they launch at EVERYTHING that comes inside their range? I think these are important and legitimate questions, and it's valuable to hear them voiced. View Quote My understanding is that the Patriot system can determine the likely impact area of incoming missile/drone and display whether that is a high value area or not. Like a field versus airbase. The operator can choose to let it pass or Intercept. Perhaps some of the drones getting through were allowed to if Patriot was the only available battery. It has shown it can intercept near 100% when in range. |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
DPICM to the courtesy phone. |
|
|
Originally Posted By Prime: 🤷♂️ I am not as confidently knowledgeable about every country’s Patriot stocks. They’re also doing pretty well with S-300, and that’s not mentioning NASAMS, IRIS-T, Gepard, and MANPADS. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/IMG_3336-2872349.jpg View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By daemon734: That 64 is most likely kicking the can another 6 weeks or so, and its also missiles Germany did not have available to release, which is the case for any patriot reload from any country at this point. Its absolutely not solely tied to drones, the drones are the (offensively) sustainable problem that put them in the situation they are in now. 🤷♂️ I am not as confidently knowledgeable about every country’s Patriot stocks. They’re also doing pretty well with S-300, and that’s not mentioning NASAMS, IRIS-T, Gepard, and MANPADS. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/IMG_3336-2872349.jpg But but they only have Patriot and they are wasting missiles! |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Longer version of latest high jump winner, including the landing. Does not stick. https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1675879402880610304
|
|
“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione |
Originally Posted By Prime: Cool. Interesting to me was that it was contingent on a ~$4B Arrow-3 purchase.
View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Germany is recieving the updated MSE interceptors for their Patriot systems, so I'm guessing they handed off the older PAC-3 CRI to Ukraine. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2023-05-11-lockheed-martins-pac-3-mse-interceptor-launched-from-german-patriot-launcher Cool. Interesting to me was that it was contingent on a ~$4B Arrow-3 purchase.
Europe seems much more committed to ramping up IRIS-T systems than buying Patriot. So focusing on Patriot sales or possession is severely skewing reality of LR AD. |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Originally Posted By RockNwood: Good. BTW, none of those Chechen commanders are missing meals! View Quote He's quite a character. First of all, he's definitely not Chechen, his last name sounds Ukrainian. Former SWAT colonel in Stavropol, volunteered for the war, IDK why he was put in charge of a military unit. Maybe he had some military experience before becoming a cop. |
|
|
Originally Posted By daemon734: Absolutely not. I support giving them a lot of support. We cannot afford to give them items we cannot readily replace that are being expended at these rates. At that point its either time for a new plan or time to stop. Running dry only causes the same outcome for all of us and puts Ukraine in a worse bargaining position. I'm all for a new plan. View Quote |
|
"the science" /duh si-ens/ noun: progressive postmodern religious dogma not based in tested hypothesis or facts used to advance an authoritative political ideology
|
Originally Posted By HIPPO:
DPICM to the courtesy phone. View Quote Does the 3:1 rule come into play now that Russia is in the defensive positions? |
|
|
Originally Posted By PolarBear416: The Patriot battery is itself defended by other AD, they are not using it to shoot down incoming drones. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By PolarBear416: Originally Posted By AeroEngineer: Exactly. There are detain high value targets (the Patriot battery itself) where trading a Patriot for a POS Shaheed is worth it. Not because of the value of the Shaheed itself but because of the value of the Shaheed’s target, So far in this conflict the Ukrainian military leadership has generally been pretty savvy with what they’re doing. I’m going to assume they understand the value of a Patriot missile, snd are weighing this in for target dejection decisions. The Patriot battery is itself defended by other AD, they are not using it to shoot down incoming drones. The “Patriot concern” club always ignores the dozens of other systems like BUK, S-300, NASAMs, Gephard, IRiS-T, MANPADs, etc. |
|
Deplorable fan of liberty
“I don’t need a ride, I need more ammunition.” |
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.