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Posted: 3/11/2024 7:56:59 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: And who is to say the Ukrainians are really suffering from lack of manpower? I'm honestly not sure I buy this conclusion. Ukraine has actually stood up several new brigades since the counter-offensive fizzled. I don't think they could do this if they were having serious manpower issues. In fact, it seems like only a handful of Ukrainian units are heavily engaged at the moment. Think about it for a moment. We keep reading about the same units over and over in all the news stories. You can count them on one hand. What are the dozens of other brigades we never hear mentioned doing? And if Ukraine were really critically low on troops, then wouldn't the civilian leadership be doing something drastic to change that? So far they haven't even lowered the conscription age down to 25. It seems they aren't very concerned. I think a lot of the "Ukraine is running out of men" stuff is coming from the Putin bots who want to hurt Ukrainian morale and to make western partners lose faith that Ukraine can win. Right now, I think the biggest issue facing Ukraine is a shortage of equipment and artillery ammunition. It seems to me they have far more men than they can actually equip. The west needs to keep a steady flow of ammo coming in and the donations of equipment can't just stop. They are going to need more tanks, IFVs, APCs, trucks, and so forth to replace combat loses and to outfit units that are presently poorly equipped. All Russia has accomplished over the past 6 months is to take a medium size town that no longer exists, while losing 16,000 men and a division's worth of equipment to take it. They aren't making any gains elsewhere. I really don't get all the hand-wringing. I agree with this as well. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 8:09:21 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Exactly. The Ukrainian air force has said they are taking careful attention to make sure the F-16's are going to be survivable in theatre. They said the biggest was setting up the infrastructure in Ukraine to support them properly. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By doc540: If at any time of their choosing orcs can send dozens of drones anywhere in Ukraine, how can F-16's and their support systems be protected? So, a dozen or so arrive in Ukraine "soon" (there's that word again), how do they survive focused orc attacks because you know they're coming. What would Curtis LeMay do? (just trying to keep from getting in a funk here) Dispersing them like the Ukrainians have done for the Mig-29's has worked so far. Keep changing their landing and takeoff areas and keep those areas far west of the frontline and under considerable layered air defenses. The Ukrainian air force said they have been preparing for the F-16's arrival for months, and it is still ongoing. Not only dispersal around airbases in a large country, but dispersal off base. How many drones would it take to effectively cover all parking spots on one base, all hiding locations within a mile of the base, times all possible bases? Exactly. The Ukrainian air force has said they are taking careful attention to make sure the F-16's are going to be survivable in theatre. They said the biggest was setting up the infrastructure in Ukraine to support them properly. The SU-24s are a pretty good example. We know from verified sources that Ukrainian Su-24 air losses exceeded their prewar fleet, that they must’ve reactivated boneyard AC to have any at all, and that their fleet likely has not exceeded 2-4 operational AC. We don’t have any confirmed SU-24 hits on the ground, though obviously the Ukrainians wouldn’t advertise it. Still, had the Russians been able to attrit the SU-24s at all (and there have been repeated hits on one airbase) the most likely outcome would be zero SU-24s by this point. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 8:14:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jaehaerys]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: And who is to say the Ukrainians are really suffering from lack of manpower? I'm honestly not sure I buy this conclusion. Ukraine has actually stood up several new brigades since the counter-offensive fizzled. I don't think they could do this if they were having serious manpower issues. In fact, it seems like only a handful of Ukrainian units are heavily engaged at the moment. Think about it for a moment. We keep reading about the same units over and over in all the news stories. You can count them on one hand. What are the dozens of other brigades we never hear mentioned doing? And if Ukraine were really critically low on troops, then wouldn't the civilian leadership be doing something drastic to change that? So far they haven't even lowered the conscription age down to 25. It seems they aren't very concerned. I think a lot of the "Ukraine is running out of men" stuff is coming from the Putin bots who want to hurt Ukrainian morale and to make western partners lose faith that Ukraine can win. Right now, I think the biggest issue facing Ukraine is a shortage of equipment and artillery ammunition. It seems to me they have far more men than they can actually equip. The west needs to keep a steady flow of ammo coming in and the donations of equipment can't just stop. They are going to need more tanks, IFVs, APCs, trucks, and so forth to replace combat loses and to outfit units that are presently poorly equipped. All Russia has accomplished over the past 6 months is to take a medium size town that no longer exists, while losing 16,000 men and a division's worth of equipment to take it. They aren't making any gains elsewhere. I really don't get all the hand-wringing. The Ukrainians themselves are saying that they're suffering from manpower issues, and are having a difficult time replacing losses, especially in infantry units. I don't think the Rada would be attempting to pass legislation to allow convicts to fight and to revamp the mobilization system as a whole if there weren't serious problems. If they're left unchecked long enough, they could lead to a Kharkiv style collapse for the Ukrainians. Allowing prisoners to fight and ex-cons to be mobilized is a decent step, but more needs to be done, and I haven't been impressed by the bills I've seen that aim to reform the mobilization system. I think most of this comes down to the fact that Ukrainian political leadership is afraid to mobilize its younger male citizens. I can kind of understand why if I squint and view things through the eyes of a politician, but, tough shit. This is an existential war for the Ukrainian state and the nation, and they're faced with extinction as a people should they lose. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 8:49:50 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#4]
ISW assessment for March 11th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2024 A Ukrainian military observer offered assessments of Russian force generation and defense industrial base (DIB) capacities that are consistent with ISW’s previous assessments. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that the Russian military command is aiming to create a “strategic reserve” for offensive operations in spring–summer 2024 but is not planning to equip these newly formed units and formations with the doctrinally required quantities of weapons and equipment due to current Russian DIB production constraints.[1] Mashovets stated that the Russian military command only plans to equip the 27th Motorized Rifle Division — which Russia is reportedly in the process of standing up on the basis of the Central Military District’s existing 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade — with up to 87 percent of its doctrinally required amounts of weapons and equipment by the second and fourth quarters of 2024 and implied that the Russian military command has a similar goal for other new formations and units. Mashovets assessed that it is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to meet this equipment goal by the fourth quarter of 2024 given that many Russian regiments, brigades, and divisions currently operating in Ukraine only have about 30 percent of the doctrinally required amounts of weapons and equipment. Several Western and Ukrainian military officials and analysts noted that Russia’s reported tank production numbers largely reflect restored and modern tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.[2] Mashovets’ assessment is consistent with ISW’s assessment that the Russian DIB is capable of sustaining Russia’s current tempo of operations, although not likely able to fully support a potential operational or strategic-level offensive operation using a strategic reserve of manpower 2024.[3] Reports that the Russian military is prioritizing creating new underequipped units and formations are consistent with ISW‘s assessment that Russia is prioritizing the quantity of manpower and materiel over the quality of its forces.[4] ISW continues to assess that Russia would have the opportunity to expand its DIB and amass resources if it maintains the theater-wide initiative throughout 2024, thus allowing Russia to set conditions for a future offensive operation using a larger reserve of manpower and equipment.[5] Russia’s increased defense industrial base (DIB) production is likely not sustainable in the medium- and long-term as it will likely suffer from labor shortages, decreased weapons and equipment stockpiles, and an inability to completely compensate for military and dual-use items it can no longer acquire due to sanctions. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on March 11 that a senior NATO official stated that Russia can likely sustain its current war effort for two to five more years.[11] WSJ noted that some Russian production figures, such as those for military vehicles, do not differentiate between newly produced items and refurbished ones brought out of storage, such as older, lower quality T-62 and T-54/-55 tanks. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:49:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#5]
[Deleted]
A reminder and warning to those participating in this thread- This thread from the beginning has been about the Ukraine/Russia War, and in-theater events. This kept out the "fuck Ukraine", "its all a grift", "give the big guy 10%", "Ukraine has always been Russia" arguments that were there just to make the thread unreadable, and just like dozens of other threads about the same conflict, all with the same people spouting the same thing. This thread was treated different. Now, because many want the congressional bill passed, it's what some want to argue about. There have been a bunch of anti-republican, anti-trump, domestic border, comments posted around this issue. Those arguments and discussions are already happening in dozens of other threads. Letting them run here, only invites the trolls. Those who slide the topic with congressional spending or presidential politics opinion posts will be thread banned, warned, or both. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:49:06 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kpacman: I would still like to learn whether General Gerasimov is "relatively" alive or "relatively" dead. I don't think a word or a sighting of him has been recorded since it was rumored that a headquarters he was in had been hit by Himars a couple of months ago. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kpacman: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Thanks, "Relatively alive" is an interesting term.  I would still like to learn whether General Gerasimov is "relatively" alive or "relatively" dead. I don't think a word or a sighting of him has been recorded since it was rumored that a headquarters he was in had been hit by Himars a couple of months ago. Maybe like the guy in the movie "The Princess Bride". Inigo Montoya : He's dead. He can't talk. Miracle Max : Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much. It just so happens that your friend here is only MOSTLY dead. There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do. Inigo Montoya : What's that? Miracle Max : Go through his clothes and look for loose change. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:06:04 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: ISW assessment for March 11th. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2024 Deep strikes into Russian rear areas would disrupt that force generation capabilities. Striking training bases (especially without warning) and troop concentrations, fuel depots, vehicle depots, etc would make that very costly. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:08:08 PM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#8]
[Deleted]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:27:43 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: If at any time of their choosing orcs can send dozens of drones anywhere in Ukraine, how can F-16's and their support systems be protected? So, a dozen or so arrive in Ukraine "soon" (there's that word again), how do they survive focused orc attacks because you know they're coming. What would Curtis LeMay do? (just trying to keep from getting in a funk here) In this instance, perhaps we should ask "What would George Kenney, Claire Chennault, or Hugh Dowding do" |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:31:41 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: In this instance, perhaps we should ask "What would George Kenney, Claire Chennault, or Hugh Dowding do" Point made But none of them smoked cigars and relished killing Russians |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:32:54 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIbVeFzXsAAJb4F?format=png&name=900x900
Magyar baiting the Russians again. The photo itself indicates this is the third gift. If you haven’t listed to the translated first Madyar video, you’ll get a prime dose of his literate, drily humorous, yet slightly sadistic approach to killing Russians in new and inventive ways. “Look, the monkey is already rowing over to see what’s arrived!”  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:35:14 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: The Ukrainians themselves are saying that they're suffering from manpower issues, and are having a difficult time replacing losses, especially in infantry units. I don't think the Rada would be attempting to pass legislation to allow conscripts to fight and to revamp the mobilization system as a whole if there weren't serious problems. If they're left unchecked long enough, they could lead to a Kharkiv style collapse for the Ukrainians. Allowing prisoners to fight and ex-cons to be mobilized is a decent step, but more needs to be done, and I haven't been impressed by the bills I've seen that aim to reform the mobilization system. I think most of this comes down to the fact that Ukrainian political leadership is afraid to mobilize its younger male citizens. I can kind of understand why if I squint and view things through the eyes of a politician, but, tough shit. This is an existential war for the Ukrainian state and the nation, and they're faced with extinction as a people should they lose. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: And who is to say the Ukrainians are really suffering from lack of manpower? I'm honestly not sure I buy this conclusion. Ukraine has actually stood up several new brigades since the counter-offensive fizzled. I don't think they could do this if they were having serious manpower issues. In fact, it seems like only a handful of Ukrainian units are heavily engaged at the moment. Think about it for a moment. We keep reading about the same units over and over in all the news stories. You can count them on one hand. What are the dozens of other brigades we never hear mentioned doing? And if Ukraine were really critically low on troops, then wouldn't the civilian leadership be doing something drastic to change that? So far they haven't even lowered the conscription age down to 25. It seems they aren't very concerned. I think a lot of the "Ukraine is running out of men" stuff is coming from the Putin bots who want to hurt Ukrainian morale and to make western partners lose faith that Ukraine can win. Right now, I think the biggest issue facing Ukraine is a shortage of equipment and artillery ammunition. It seems to me they have far more men than they can actually equip. The west needs to keep a steady flow of ammo coming in and the donations of equipment can't just stop. They are going to need more tanks, IFVs, APCs, trucks, and so forth to replace combat loses and to outfit units that are presently poorly equipped. All Russia has accomplished over the past 6 months is to take a medium size town that no longer exists, while losing 16,000 men and a division's worth of equipment to take it. They aren't making any gains elsewhere. I really don't get all the hand-wringing. The Ukrainians themselves are saying that they're suffering from manpower issues, and are having a difficult time replacing losses, especially in infantry units. I don't think the Rada would be attempting to pass legislation to allow conscripts to fight and to revamp the mobilization system as a whole if there weren't serious problems. If they're left unchecked long enough, they could lead to a Kharkiv style collapse for the Ukrainians. Allowing prisoners to fight and ex-cons to be mobilized is a decent step, but more needs to be done, and I haven't been impressed by the bills I've seen that aim to reform the mobilization system. I think most of this comes down to the fact that Ukrainian political leadership is afraid to mobilize its younger male citizens. I can kind of understand why if I squint and view things through the eyes of a politician, but, tough shit. This is an existential war for the Ukrainian state and the nation, and they're faced with extinction as a people should they lose. There’s not a thing I disagree with, but one addition- They ARE saying that, but they’re also setting a very high bar at 1.5M. It’s a big front, and units need rotating, so that’s arguably what it takes. I also suspect they’re thinking that while they’re getting all this attention and money, they need to train as many as possible. The day will come when attention will be elsewhere. |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:50:07 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: The Ukrainians themselves are saying that they're suffering from manpower issues, and are having a difficult time replacing losses, especially in infantry units. I don't think the Rada would be attempting to pass legislation to allow conscripts to fight and to revamp the mobilization system as a whole if there weren't serious problems. If they're left unchecked long enough, they could lead to a Kharkiv style collapse for the Ukrainians. Allowing prisoners to fight and ex-cons to be mobilized is a decent step, but more needs to be done, and I haven't been impressed by the bills I've seen that aim to reform the mobilization system. I think most of this comes down to the fact that Ukrainian political leadership is afraid to mobilize its younger male citizens. I can kind of understand why if I squint and view things through the eyes of a politician, but, tough shit. This is an existential war for the Ukrainian state and the nation, and they're faced with extinction as a people should they lose. i have been pondering this a lot the last week. have been reading a book about the US mobilization efforts in WW2... there are a LOT of issues at play with regards to mobilization. one is training -- having the facilities / capacity to train 1,000s of new soldiers. the other is logistics -- having the ability to equip, feed, pay, house 1,000s of new soldiers. all while subject to missile attacks... training new soldiers is by nature a 'massed event' -- an inviting target. i am also concerned about leader development -- developing / training NCOs and junior officers. you can't just hand a guy stripes or a bar and say -- 'you're in charge now' and hope it all works out. also 12-15 months ago we were hearing about all the new brigades and training taking place in Germany, Poland and Great Britain, etc. don't seem to hear that much anymore along those lines. my respect for Ukraine has not diminished. i hope there are lots of positive things going on we aren't aware of. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:50:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#14]
Russia’s reliance on China, North Korea and Iran over Ukraine has ‘potential to undermine’: top US official
-Moscow’s dire circumstances could lead to upended ‘non-proliferation norms’ and fuel disinformation meant to interfere with elections, Senate hears -US national intelligence director sees ‘growing cooperation and willingness to exchange aid in military, economic, political and intelligence matters’ Russia is increasingly dependent on China, North Korea and Iran as its war against Ukraine strains resources, potentially undermining global “non-proliferation norms” and enhancing disinformation meant to interfere with coming elections in America and other countries, a top US intelligence official warned lawmakers on Monday. “Growing cooperation and willingness to exchange aid in military, economic, political and intelligence matters [among the four countries] enhances their individual capabilities,” said Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, in testimony supporting her office’s Annual Threat Assessment, a summary of current threats to American national security. The hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee also brought as witnesses FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director William Burns and National Security Agency Director Timothy Haugh. A closed-door hearing was scheduled to follow the unclassified public portion. “Russia’s need for support in the context of Ukraine has forced it to grant some long-time concessions to China, North Korea and Iran, with the potential to undermine, among other things, long-held non-proliferation norms,” Haines said, without specifying what technologies she was most concerned about. Burns stated that President Vladimir Putin was facing dire consequences, militarily and economically, even as the Russian leader appears convinced he holds the upper hand in a costly war that has just entered its third year. Russia has seen “315,000-plus dead and wounded, four times the casualties that the Soviet Union suffered in a decade of war in Afghanistan, the destruction of something on the order of two thirds of their pre-war tank inventory, and long-term economic consequences … fast making Russia the economic vassal of China”, Burns said. Monday’s hearing and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s most recent threat assessment underscored the extent to which Washington’s intel community sees economic and technological cooperation between the four countries that Haines identified undermining American stability. As often happens in such settings, popular social-media platform TikTok was cited as a possible vector for societal division over its alleged subservience to China’s Communist Party, which the company, owned by Chinese tech giant ByteDance, has denied. Geng Shuang, China’s envoy to the United Nations, has called on the parties concerned to gradually build consensus and jointly explore feasible solutions. Photo: CCTV Wray answered in the affirmative when asked by Florida’s Marco Rubio, the ranking Republican on the committee, whether TikTok would need to follow any Chinese government orders from ByteDance “to put out videos that make Americans fight with each other or spread conspiracy theories and get them at each other’s throats”. “I would just add that … the different kinds of influence operations you’re describing are extraordinarily difficult to detect, which is part of what makes the national-security concerns represented by TikTok so significant,” Wray said. TikTok CEO Chew Shou Zi has denied in testimony before American lawmakers that the company has ever shared US user data with the Chinese government. It has spent US$1.5 billion in an effort to restrict access to users’ data in the US in coordination with the American government. Differences over aid for Ukraine, which has been blocked by Republicans in the House of Representatives, connected back to China in Monday’s hearing, with Democrats and some of Monday’s witnesses warning that threats posed by Beijing would intensify if support for Ukraine stayed stalled. US President Joe Biden has urged the House to follow the Senate’s passage last month of a US$95 billion package that includes funding for Israel’s military and Taiwan. Some US$60 billion of that amount would help Ukraine restock depleted ammunition supplies and weapons. Republican lawmakers have made support for Taiwan and Israel a higher priority, often warning about Beijing’s military build-up in recent years. Rubio framed the aid as a choice. “The Chinese hope for [the US] is one of two things: A, we deplete ourselves in Ukraine and/or the Middle East, particularly Ukraine, or B, we can run and then they can go around the world and say, ‘see, America’s weak’,” he said. “They have a plan for either outcome, which makes it challenging for us as we decide what to do here.” Democratic senator Michael Bennet of Colorado pushed back on that assessment. “You hear people in this building say that the United States of America has to give up on our support for Ukraine in actual conflict with Vladimir Putin and actual conflict with Russia because of the fear that we will not be able to afford some plausible but nevertheless theoretical conflict with China in the future,” Bennet said. In response to Bennet’s follow-up question on whether the US was capable of handling “our commitments with respect to Ukraine and Nato and be able to deter Beijing”, Burns said: “We’re entirely capable.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3255012/russias-reliance-china-north-korea-and-iran-over-ukraine-has-potential-undermine-top-us-official |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 12:29:19 AM EDT
[#15]
One through Putin's bedroom window at 3:00 a.m. would be effective too.
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:12:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: PMB1086]
[#16]
Lots of black smoke.
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:20:44 AM EDT
[Last Edit: PMB1086]
[#17]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:34:51 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086:
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:40:54 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086: Lots of black smoke.
Looks like off-nominal operations at that refinery. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:50:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#20]
Good morning from the Russian-Ukrainian border. Like all our fellow citizens, in the Legion we dream of a Russia freed from Putin’s dictatorship. But we don’t just dream: we make every effort to make these dreams come true. We will take our land away from the regime, centimeter by centimeter. Russians will sleep peacefully, not be afraid of the doorbell, and will say what they think without fear. Russians will vote for whom they want, and not for whom they should. Russians will live freely. ⚡️The Legion is coming. For Russia! For freedom! https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1114 Tanks are not afraid of dirt. Crossed the Rubicon. Crossed the border. https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1115 Nobody will go anywhere. Nothing else. It’s okay, they’ll wait for release. ⚡️ The armored personnel carrier was destroyed. We continue to work. upd: armored personnel carriers were demilitarized in the village. Tetkino https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1116 Dear residents of Kursk, it was a restless night in our region. 11 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down. The missile danger has not yet been eliminated. At the moment, shelling is underway from the Ukrainian side in the village of Tyotkino, Glushkovsky district. Unfortunately, there is a casualty there. A local resident was slightly injured and received the necessary assistance. https://t.me/gubernator_46/5118 
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:52:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#21]
‼️ Previously, a plane was just shot down over the forest in Valuyky, Belgorod region...
According to preliminary data, this is SU-27. Local residents claim a powerful explosion, after which a large fire started in the forest. 🇺🇦 Donbas https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1767465083737682240  
The head of Taganrog reported an attack in the region using a UAV. https://t.me/tass_agency/236010 
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:55:47 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086: Lots of black smoke.
 
So much going on. Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refineries, NORSI on fire By Guy Faulconbridge and Lidia Kelly March 12, 20244:52 AM EDTUpdated 3 min ago MOSCOW, March 12 (Reuters) - Ukraine pounded targets across Russia on Tuesday with at least 25 drones and nine rockets, in a sweeping attack that one Russian official said had triggered a fire at a major refinery in the world's second largest oil exporter. Russia and Ukraine have both used drones to strike critical infrastructure, military installations and troop concentrations in their more than two-year war, with Kyiv hitting Russian refineries and energy facilities in recent months. Russia's defence ministry said it had downed 25 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions including Moscow, Leningrad, Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Tula and Oryol. Russian officials reported attacks on a slew of energy facilities, including a fire at Lukoil's (LKOH.MM), opens new tab NORSI refinery and a drone destroyed on the outskirts of the town of Kirishi, home to Russia's second largest oil refinery. Gleb Nikitin, governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, posted a picture of the NORSI refinery and said emergency services were working to put out a fire there. "A fuel and energy complex facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles," Nikitin said on Telegram. Russian Telegram channels said a crude distillation unit at the refinery had been damaged and was on fire. Lukoil did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The NORSI refinery can process about 17 million metric tons of oil per year, or 340,000 barrels per day. It typically produces 11% of Russia's gasoline. Domestic gasoline prices are sensitive for motorists and farmers in the world's biggest wheat exporter ahead of a March 15-17 presidential election. Russia imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports on March 1. DRONES AND MISSILES The Baza Telegram channel, which is close to Russian law enforcement, said Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod refinery had also been hit, and showed pictures of a plume of black smoke rising into the air and a major fire. Reuters could not independently verify the report. Russia's defence ministry said Ukraine had fired eight RM-70 rockets and one Tochka-U missile at the Belgorod region, where some Russian war correspondents said there had also been an attempt by armed groups to cross into Russian territory. At least two Ukraine-based armed groups purporting to be made up of Russians opposed to the Kremlin said on their social media pages they had launched an incursion across the Russian border on Tuesday. Reuters could not independently verify the claims. Oryol region's Governor Andrei Klychkov said Ukraine had launched a drone attack at a fuel facility in the region, with the RIA news agency citing emergency services as saying one petroleum tank was on fire following the attack. The governor later said firefighters, who were shown spraying plumes of foam, had put out the fire at an oil storage facility in the region. At least 17 people from high-rise buildings near the site where the drone crashed were reported to have been evacuated to a temporary accommodation centre. Officials in several regions continued to report drone attacks after the defence ministry statement. No casualties were reported in the attacks. One drone flying towards Moscow had been downed over the Ramensky district near the capital, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow and Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Andrew Osborn and Jan Harvey https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-launches-drones-oryol-fuel-facility-other-regions-russia-says-2024-03-12/
⚡️ Fires at two oil refineries and partial blackout: Russia has "cotton" in at least 8 regions, - rosmedia. - Information about the explosions came from Moscow, Tula, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh regions. There were also reports of attacks on oil refineries in Orel and Nizhny Novgorod regions. - Power lines damaged in Belgorod region as a result of drone attacks, - Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. 7 settlements were left without electricity. Russian air defense shoots down 25 UAVs, - Russian Defense Ministry
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:14:42 AM EDT
[#23]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:20:33 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#24]
 ❗️More than 10 serious assassination attempts have been made against the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyryll Budanov since the beginning of the war, - Yusov https://t.me/newspn/85007 |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:21:11 AM EDT
[#25]
ATESH recorded the location of the occupiers' personnel in Lugansk.
Our agents managed to find out that in Lugansk, on Oboronnaya Street 12a, in the Tourist Hotel, personnel of the so-called “People's Militia of the LPR” and the Russian Armed Forces were stationed. This is yet another confirmation that the Russian army is placing occupiers in residential areas in order to subsequently accuse the Ukrainian Defense Forces of destroying civilian infrastructure. The coordinates were transferred to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. https://t.me/atesh_ua/3810 |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:29:13 AM EDT
[#26]
From yesterday
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:32:11 AM EDT
[#27]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:37:39 AM EDT
[#28]
This is why I treat WarGonzo like Russian state media anymore.
⚡️Urgent⚡️Details of the attempt to break into the Kursk region⚡️ The first battle near the village of Tyotkino, Kursk region, began at approximately 8:00 am. The enemy tried to break through the border from three sides. He was met by our defenders with uncompromising fire and rolled away. However, isolated skirmishes and fire contacts continue to this day. Civilian injuries were reported. Just a quarter of an hour ago, aerial reconnaissance established that neo-Nazis were gathering heavy equipment to form columns in the Vorozhba area - less than 10 km from the border with the Kursk region. Right now our artillery is striking at enemy concentrations and armored groups. https://t.me/wargonzo/18682 ⚡️Urgent⚡️At least 2 tanks and armored personnel carriers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are knocked out near the Belgorod border⚡️ When trying to break through the border with the Belgorod region, the enemy used heavy equipment to support the advancing infantry, but after our artillery strikes, two Ukrainian tanks and an armored personnel carrier remained abandoned. Our helicopters worked to catch up with the retreating neo-Nazis. The enemy suffered significant losses in personnel. Survivors are trying to evacuate the wounded and dead. Our men at the border lines are heroes! We wish them good luck in battle! https://t.me/wargonzo/18684 ⚡️The Ukrainian Armed Forces were blown up by their own mines during an attack on the Belgorod border⚡️ According to sources of the @wargonzo project in the regional security forces, part of the enemy’s armored vehicles, which tried to force our border lines, were blown up on their own minefields, in fact, not having time to reach the very demarcation line. However, despite the fact that the main attack was shot down, including thanks to the operational actions of our aviation and effective artillery fire, the enemy’s equipment continues to roll along the border with the Grayvoronovo district of the Belgorod region. Our specialists and UAV crews are hunting for “boxes” trying to escape. https://t.me/wargonzo/18691 |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:45:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086:
#ГУРперехоплення ‼️ In the Belgorod region, the local population continues to avoid the "z-symbol" 🔗https://gur.gov.ua/content/na-bielhorodshchyni-mistseve-naselennia-prodovzhuie-storonytysia-z-symvoliky.html
‼️ Tanks of the "Freedom of Russia" Legion crossed the border at night! Legion "Freedom of Russia", RDK and the Siberian Battalion entered the Kursk and Belgorod regions of the Russian Federation as part of a joint operation. As the opposition member Ilya Ponomaryov reported, the border town of Lozova Rudka in the Belgorod region is completely under the control of the liberation forces. A shooting battle is currently underway in Tetkino, Kursk region.
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:54:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#30]
 
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Posted: 3/12/2024 5:58:45 AM EDT
[#31]
🚁 The first flight to surrounded Mariupol - how scouts and aviators got to "Azovstal"
 ??????????? ????????????. ?????? ???????? ???? ?? ?????????. ?? ??? ?? ???????? ??????? ?????????? |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 6:11:26 AM EDT
[#32]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 6:19:09 AM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 6:24:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#34]
👀 "No NATO country can send troops to Ukraine without the consent of other members of the Alliance", - Stoltenberg
❗️This is how the Secretary General responded to Macron’s statements about the introduction of troops into Ukraine. Stoltenberg stressed that NATO still has no plans to send troops to Ukraine, since the Alliance "is not a party to the conflict." 🤔 According to him, even if NATO countries decide individually to send troops to Ukraine, this will have an impact on all allies as a whole, since they are bound by the collective defense pact.
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Posted: 3/12/2024 6:32:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#35]
WTF
“Previously” this might have been an IL-76 
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Posted: 3/12/2024 6:44:56 AM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 7:08:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#37]
April last year, alleged to be Russian resistance
The image of the future is often asked. Let's discuss post-Russia options: 1. “Weimar Republic” 2. Failed states 3. Kitarossia 4. Free states of healthy people 1. After defeat in the war and the conclusion of a peace treaty, Russia will become a rogue state in an economic crisis, with a destroyed infrastructure, a lack of qualified labor, hundreds of thousands of refugees, unemployed, including many “North Military District veterans” with PTSD, pardoned murderers and rapists. The peace treaty will be as humiliating and enslaving as possible, with gigantic reparations and restrictions on the army, with many prohibitions. Only public figures at the highest levels of government - Putin, Shoigu, Patrushev and others - will be formally convicted. In fact, all Russians will be punished based on their citizenship. The “Russians who left” will become second-class people, the remaining Russians will become poor, second-class people. Mainly the same people will remain in government agencies as under Putin. There will be a “ditch with crocodiles” along the border. This state of affairs is an excellent basis for revanchism and the unity of the nation against a common external enemy. In ten years, the mistakes of the war with Ukraine will be taken into account, new technologies and organizational solutions will be introduced in the army and law enforcement agencies, and the new dictator will create such a meat grinder that Putin will seem like a pacifist. 2. The same introductory notes on economics and infrastructure, but local kings - oligarchs, owners of PMCs, governors with the support of organized crime groups - will decide that their time has come and will drag everything they can take by force in different directions. Instead of one Putin dictatorship, several dozen openly cannibalistic regimes are being formed. There will be no talk about any human rights. The practices of Wagner PMCs will become commonplace from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok. They will be armed with unknown things, in unknown quantity and condition, including nuclear weapons and other Soviet-made weapons of mass destruction, hidden by the Putin regime “until better times.” Failed states will fight with each other, basically, and this might even suit the “civilized world”, if not for the territory as a huge base for all conceivable and inconceivable international crime. 3. In this option, the main violin will be played by depopulation as a result of the extermination and emigration of the population. One and a half billion Chinese will decide that they can, because the territory is empty anyway, they will go west and stop only at the Ukrainian border, “because NATO is there.” One and a half billion Chinese are not “paper” 140 million Putin voters. China is not the ruins of the Soviet empire like Russia, it is a global factory that independently produces everything in huge quantities. With the resources and territories of the former Russia, the population of China and several thousand years of imperial tradition, it will be a force with which the rest of the world is unlikely to be able to do anything other than strain every possible resource to contain it, but with no guarantee of success. These were bad options. Good one here. https://t.me/BlackBridgeSupport/541 4. A positive image of the future is based on the fact that local and national liberation movements will create states of healthy people, interested in a quiet life and prosperity for themselves, their neighbors and the whole world. The main problem is that these movements must exist. And this should not be just a declaration, it should be a power struggle for power. Now - partisan and sabotage activities, then - an armed uprising, after - partisans and rebels as the founding fathers and founding mothers of new states. The new order must rest on people who obtained rights, freedom and independence by force, remember at what cost and do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past. You should not count on “occupation by Allied forces.” Look at the area - it's crazy. You shouldn’t count on “foreign” corps within the Armed Forces of Ukraine to come and liberate. They need to rely on something so as not to become alien occupiers. You shouldn’t expect that everything will work out on its own. It will work out something like this. In practice there will be a mixture of all options. In the interests of a normal, peaceful life, we must work on the fourth. Each regional or national liberation movement needs its own partisan cell and regional/national corps within the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Supporters of “separatism” should stop drawing contour maps and start building structures for uprising and seizure of power. Supporters of the “great indivisible beautiful Russia” should take off their rose-colored glasses and understand that it has always been great not for you, but only for one person who sits on the Moscow throne, no matter who he is. Supporters of “peaceful protest” should take off their white coats, roll up their sleeves and peacefully support those who are fighting for rights, freedom and independence using force. Ukrainians should realize that among the “Russians” there are those who can and should be supported, and painting everyone with the same color and surrounding them with a ditch full of crocodiles will backfire on you. Everyone who wants to support the partisan movement should forget the “you give us a share, we’ll give you money” model, advance part of the expenses, help not only with finances, but also with information, instructions, contacts, and set the goal not for a picture for the media, but for the development of the partisan movement. If we do this, something will work out. P.S. The main thing for the “peaceful opposition” is to remember that while you adhere to the high principles of non-violence, condemn “wrong methods”, consider potential allies not correct enough and come up with other excuses for inaction, someone is making History and building the future without you. https://t.me/BlackBridgeSupport/542 Yesterday There is less than a week left before Putin's elections. In some places, they are already taking place in the form of early voting. Despite the fact that the opposition cannot influence the result of these “elections” by any legal means, again, at the last moment, the “opposition leaders” are trying to come up with some kind of strategy. Which is doomed to failure in advance, if only because Putin is constantly campaigning, and his headquarters began working a year ago as part of the executive authorities, which is documented in the example of Udmurtia. If you are planning to do something more effective and have not yet contacted us, today is the last day when you can do this in order to work through the promotion without haste. Write to the email in the channel description, observing the security policy. https://t.me/BlackBridgeSupport/14 We’ll talk you out of a bad project and help you with a good one. Actions against gatherings of random people and generally dangerous actions against polling stations during their work with voters will not be taken into consideration. Terror of ordinary people is a method of the Putin regime and its friendly cannibals. Discuss https://t.me/BlackBridgeSupport/1382 Linked to the above source. A number of electronic services of the government of the Belgorod region were attacked, including the electronic document management service, the region’s Ministry of Digital Development reported. - TASS It is likely that a "multi-domain" operation is being carried out. The joint use of drones, artillery, tanks and infantry has already been recorded. A simultaneous attack in cyberspace means that International Legion units are testing the cutting edge of military art. https://t.me/HeraldOfRebellion/741 In St. Petersburg, a fire broke out at 33k1A Gruzovoy Passage in the warehouse of NTP TKA LLC, which produces rocket components for JSC KB Luch. Source: https://t.me/fontankaspb/53647 Technical policy of JSC KB Luch, page 52. https://t.me/HeraldOfRebellion/743 Residents of border settlements in the Belgorod region share footage of the consequences of the morning shelling, and explosions are heard at the entrance to Belgorod itself. At this time, the FSB reports that all attempts to violate the state border were prevented. https://t.me/HeraldOfRebellion/744 |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 7:43:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#38]
War in Ukraine: standoff expected in the National Assembly over French aid to Kyiv
MPs will debate and vote on the French strategy for aiding the Ukrainian army which will be presented by the Prime Minister this Tuesday. Two years after the start of the conflict, opinions differ on the commitment that France should make in the war. The oppositions particularly criticize Emmanuel Macron's comments on the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine. Decisive day for France's support for Ukraine. The National Assembly decides this Tuesday on the country's aid strategy for Ukraine during a debate and a symbolic vote. The Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, will kick off the debates around 4:30 p.m., before the intervention of the political groups, followed by a vote, without binding value, expected around 8 p.m. Note that after the Assembly, a similar debate will be held in the Senate on Wednesday. The outcome of the vote could be favorable, with the support of the Socialists and LR. “ We have no other choice. We are obviously for Ukraine ,” members of the right-wing group told AFP. “ But we want concrete commitments in terms of arms exports and that France does not just talk .” Billions of euros at stake In his statement this afternoon, the head of government must present the Franco-Ukrainian security agreement of February 16. Concluded for a period of ten years, it includes a strengthening of military cooperation, particularly in the areas of artillery and air defense. In addition, the executive promised to provide, in 2024, “ up to 3 billion euros of additional support ”, funding that the opposition could question while the government has just announced a series of budget cuts. “ Our security has a price ,” replies Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu in Le Parisien . “These 3 billion are not a check to Ukraine. They correspond to the maximum value of our military aid in 2024, in particular to orders placed with our French defense industries. The French economy will therefore benefit ,” he insists. The macronie points out the “ ambiguities ” of the RN and LFI (lol) With this vote, the Macronists hope to point out the “ ambiguities ” of the RN and LFI with regard to Russia. The vote of each group will be “ interesting ”, underlines Yaël Braun-Pivet. Gabriel Attal set the tone on Saturday during the presidential camp's first European campaign meeting, by increasing attacks against " the Le Pen clan ", accused of " weakness " and " softness " in the face of Vladimir Putin's Russia. “ These Russophilia trials (are) there to distract voters from the real issues ,” replied RN Sébastien Chenu, whose party is prances in the polls, with more than ten points ahead of the Macronist candidate, Valérie Hayer. Cautious, Marine Le Pen's group is wary of a " trap " vote this Tuesday. The RN says it is waiting for Gabriel Attal's declaration to determine its vote, with “ red lines ”. Note, this last group nevertheless still remains opposed to Ukraine's membership in NATO and the European Union. Macron criticized for his comments on sending French troops Because three months before the June 9 election, aid to Ukraine has become one of the key themes of the European campaign, particularly since the outings of Emmanuel Macron who affirmed on March 7 that he does not want to put " any limit ” in support for Kiev. As a reminder, the latter had notably estimated, on February 26, that the sending, in the future, of Western troops should not “ be ruled out ”, in order to make it clear to Vladimir Putin that everything will be done to ensure that he loses this war. On March 5, while traveling in Prague, the president reaffirmed his words: “ If every day we explain what our limits are ” in the face of the Russian president who “ has none , ” “ I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking,” he replied. But the opposition does not see the situation very favorably. “ These comments are complete madness. And I am very worried to see that the President of the Republic has maintained them " by receiving the party leaders at the Elysée, reacted last week to AFP l'Insoumis Manuel Bompard, who accuses Emmanuel Macron of becoming the “ leader of the war camp ”. Among the Communists, national secretary Fabien Roussel assured that his group would vote against “ if the Prime Minister's speech takes up the elements found in the Franco-Ukrainian treaty”. The mention of Ukraine's entry into NATO is a “ provocation ”, he believes. Division is also on the left. The head of the PS list for the European elections, Raphaël Glucksmann, considers the “ debate useful (to) clarify the lines of each party ”, and calls on “ all those who are attached to democracy and the security of Europe to vote for this agreement . “ We are in favor of the agreement. But our vote will depend on Gabriel Attal's declaration ,” the socialist group nuanced. The far right is demanding in particular that the Prime Minister excludes the sending of ground troops. However, this idea should not be implemented immediately. “ Russia's advance has been stopped ” and the situation is “ much better ” on the front, the Ukrainian president declared Monday to BFMTV and the daily Le Monde , estimating that “ as long as Ukraine holds, the army French can remain on French territory . “ Your children are not going to die in Ukraine ,” continued the Ukrainian president, assuring that the sending of foreign troops was not necessary for the moment. Volodymyr Zelensky, however, pleaded for sending “ technical personnel ” for “ the co-production ” of French Caesar cannons or German Leopard tanks and for “ training ”. https://www.latribune.fr/economie/france/guerre-en-ukraine-bras-de-fer-attendu-a-l-assemblee-nationale-sur-l-aide-francaise-a-kiev-992699.html |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 7:47:26 AM EDT
[#39]
🇷🇺 town. Tetkino, Kursk region is completely under the control of Russian liberation forces. Putin's army quickly leaves the village, leaving positions behind and abandoning heavy equipment. https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1119
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Posted: 3/12/2024 7:52:19 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
🇷🇺 town. Tetkino, Kursk region is completely under the control of Russian liberation forces. Putin's army quickly leaves the village, leaving positions behind and abandoning heavy equipment. https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1119
They are Russians liberating Russia….not Ukrainian citizens. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 7:55:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#41]
A few days old, but holy moly.
Everything’s either dead or on fire. Thanks to the coordinated actions of the Signum and Brandenburg-800 units of the 93rd Brigade, Kholodnyi Yar managed to advance on one of the positions near Bohdanivka on the outskirts of Bakhmut, Donetsk region
The outskirts of Novoprokopivka village, Zaporizhzhia direction (episodes of entry into the position, fierce fighting and evacuation)
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OK, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2024 7:56:27 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: He didn't actually come up with the technique. It was already in the technical manual. It was a case of the maintenance folks not believing/trusting the manual, kinda like the early days of radar and the Navy. He was sent out to prove the manual. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Originally Posted By birdbarian: Originally Posted By nraheston: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:  Charles Lindbergh was of a similar mind. I admire that he had 13 children, but he was a nazi. He also helped the war effort in the Pacific, and flew combat missions as a civilian. I suspect he had a change of heart, but I've not studied his life or beliefs. Glad someone mentioned this. He also came up with an engine RPM adjustment technique to make P-38s more fuel-efficient so they could sortie farther. Probably a more valuable contribution than the Jap plane he shot down. He didn't actually come up with the technique. It was already in the technical manual. It was a case of the maintenance folks not believing/trusting the manual, kinda like the early days of radar and the Navy. He was sent out to prove the manual. Alright, fair enough. He was definitely the right guy to prove aircraft endurance, either way. 
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Posted: 3/12/2024 7:59:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#43]
Alleged second HIMARS
 
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Posted: 3/12/2024 8:00:48 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ServusVeritatis: They are Russians liberating Russia….not Ukrainian citizens. Ukraine has made that clear, but Lazerpig has a flair for the dramatic. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 8:02:18 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Alleged second HIMARS
Something has changed with Russias ability to find/respond to higher-level threats. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 8:03:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#46]
March 11, 2024 • 8:55 p.m
Pistorius is skeptical about “Taurus” ring exchange with Great Britain Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is skeptical about a ring exchange with Great Britain to supply cruise missiles to Ukraine. Asked whether this was an appropriate solution to the "Taurus" debate, Pistorius said: "I don't think so." British Foreign Minister David Cameron did not make this suggestion on his own initiative, but simply said, when asked by a journalist, that the British government was examining all options. “But that was it,” said Pistorius. https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-ukraine-montag-346.html Baerbock sees ring exchange “option”, SPD does not Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock could imagine exchanging Taurus rings with Great Britain. Her British colleague David Cameron had previously declared his openness to this Foreign Minister Baerbock had brought up a Taurus ring exchange with Great Britain; the British could have delivered it to Ukraine. The SPD also rejects this. https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/baerbock-taurus-lieferung-ringtausch-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 8:03:32 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ServusVeritatis: Something has changed with Russias ability to find/respond to higher-level threats. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ServusVeritatis: Originally Posted By Prime: Alleged second HIMARS
Something has changed with Russias ability to find/respond to higher-level threats. Starlink didn’t hurt. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 8:05:37 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted  By ServusVeritatis:They are Russians liberating Russia….not Ukrainian citizens. The town has just declared independence and wants to join Ukraine |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 8:13:02 AM EDT
[#49]
This Twitter page is hilarious and continues to deliver.
https://twitter.com/SofiaOutlives 
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Posted: 3/12/2024 8:16:18 AM EDT
[#50]
For any “doubting Ivans”-
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