[ARCHIVED THREAD] - PEAK OIL????? Not Today!!! (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 9/5/2006 4:00:16 AM EDT
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Deep water find could be anywhere from 3bn to 15 bn barrels in gulf of Mexico. Chevron and Devon officials estimate that recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico's lower-tertiary formations hold more than 3 bln barrels' and perhaps as much as 15 bln' worth of oil and gas reserves, the Journal said. 15 bn barrels would increase US reserves by 50%. Nice find, now, lets explore the coast of Florida, and the entire East Coast. How about some anwar drilling as well! www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp?shareprice=&ArticleRef=44788&ArticleHeadline=Chevron_says_record_test_drill_completed_at_Gulf_of_Mexico_Jack_well |
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I still would like to see some domestic drilling. Well, actually I would like to see domestic drilling on a massive scale. But, now that the American people think anything under $3 a gallon is a good deal, nothing will happen. People will be happy to pay it, and will quit bitching. |
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Nice beginning. <<sigh>> 30 years people. We've had 30 frikkin years to get ourselves weaned off the OPEC teat and start taking baby steps in supporting our thirst for oil. What have we done? Not a freaking thing except shut down our own drills, pay thru the sandy ass for foreign gas, and send our troops over there to "stabilize" an area which cannot be stabilized. Big business capitalism? Hardly. Big oil's crotch grasp of Washington's ball-less? Yup. |
+1. I've been wanting to do that since I learned about those in Macro/Microeconomics last year. |
Draw it, take a screen shot, and post it. |
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.... Anything to lessen the viability of mideastern countries is goodness by me. ... More here: www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/09/05/ap/business/mainD8JUMQO00.shtml |
SSSSHHHHH! would you stop bringing facts into this? Sheesh ! cant you let us live our delusions for at least 5 minutes before you bring us back to reality?? goddman commie! Where my snarky pic of Lenin!? Did'nt you see where it said our reserves will increase by 50%?? (fuzzy math i guess) Of course that is assuming (again using fuzzy math) that it actually is 15 billion. It actually said between 3 and 15 which could mean 5 if were lucky. But that wont stop me from gloating at the granola eaters now will it? |
That also includes the US being on the receiving end of all that oil and that the Chinese won't outbid us on any of it. Wildly optimistic. Well, let's just push the burden a year or two off and make Junior deal with it. |
Probably take about 5 years for it to come onstream. That time frame would include drilling production wells, pipelines, and a way to get it back to the refinery. |
Since most gasoline refineries are running at 100%, I would think this is the limiting factor. Let me look out the window here. Yep, that's your answer. |
DUH! The only way to "wean" us off the Arab "teat" is to make oil CHEAP. |
I do believe we can make oil cheaper when you factor in the cost of the war. Hell, factor in the cost of ALL our military efforts over there for the last 30 years. Let's face it (and I am not saying this war is strictly about oil) if the major export of that area of the world were cumquats, we wouldn't be there. |
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Environmentalists (who are mostly Democrats/Socialists) want: No drilling No new refineries No nuclear power plants No dams No windmills But they also want cheap energy. AND at the same time, to reduce pollution, they want increased taxes on energy to force reduced usage of energy, they say. But mostly they want "windfall profits" tax to punish the oil companies for increased profits. They don't explain how that will affect the high price they are pissed off about. About economics they DON'T HAVE A CLUE. |
No. 200 miles (nautical) from the coastline is the limit for domestic. But no one has technology to drill in the ultra deep (15,000 feet) and very few can drill past 8,000 feet. But it WILL happen. Now for the simplistic view that we wouldn't be "over there" if it weren't for oil. We are "over there" to allow free trade. We didn't nationalize any foreign oil, we merely overthrew dictatorships that PREVENTED free flow of oil. |
But you FAIL to account for the other 500 million BPD for the next 20 years that is the rough sum of GoM reserves. This will certainly rise as technology filters down from the majors to the independents. Most E&P technology is not organic to the majors and is supplied by outside contractors. Exxon doesn't drill, Transocean Sedco Forex, an INDEPENDENT CORPORATION does it. Shell doesn't survey, Fugro does it for them. As usual, the Luddites claim the sky is falling. |
Not likely. The other major discoveries in the GoM were conservatively estimated before test drilling. Now that holes have been punched, the reserves for both Thunderhorse (formerly Crazyhorse, named after Neil Young's band) and Atlantis have been significantly increased. |
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Here's a brief economic lesson: There are two sides to a market, the supply side of the market and the demand side. Each of these sides can be represented graphically by a line on a graph:  Notice that there is a point where these lines intersect. This is called the market equilibrium, a point at which the quantity demanded and the quantity supplied meet at the same point, ceteris paribus. Now there are several factors that go into determining the demand and supply curve. Demand: Quantity Demanded = f(Price, Income, Price of Substitutes, Price of Compliments, Tastes, Price Expectations) Price -- The price of the good, service, or object in question has a - relationship to QD Income -- Income of the people buying the good, service, or asset, has a + relationship to QD Price of substitutes -- The price of substitute products has a + relationship to QD Price of compliments -- The price of products that usually accompany the product in question, has a - relationship to QD Tastes -- The preferences and effect of advertising on consumers has a + relationship to QD Price Expectations -- the price expectations held by consumers as to what the price will be in the future. Has a + relationship to QD Supply: Quantity Supplied = f(Price, Price of Inputs, State of Technology, Number of Sellers, and Price Expectations) Price -- The price the good, service, or asset is selling at. Has a + relationship to QS Price of Inputs -- The cost of the various parts of producing the product. (Raw materials, labor, etc...) Has a - relationship to QS State of Technology -- Technological improvements can increase profit margin thus producing a + relationship to QS Number of Sellers -- The number of people selling the product, has a + relationship to QS Price Expectations -- The price the producer believes they will get for their product in the future. Has a - relationship to QS Now ordinarily the supply and demand curves are drawn based solely on Price and Quantity Demanded or Quantity Supplied, and all the other factors are held to be constant, hence the use of the term ceteris paribus. If, however, one of those other factors changes, it causes a shift in the curve the variable is factored into. An increase in demand would look like:  Now lets turn our attention to the gas market, first looking at the demand side. When we look at the various factors that impact the quantity demanded, one thing should stand out when in respect to gasoline: How many substitutes are there for gas? The answer, of course, is not many. If we were dealing with two competing gas stations that had different prices for gas, then we could consider the Price of Substitutes to be a factor in the demand curve for a particular gas station's demand curve. When considering the entire world market, however, the price of substitutes isn't really a factor because there really aren't any good substitutes for gasoline, hence the demand remains pretty constant no matter the price. Thus what we end up with is a very inelastic demand curve.  Notice how steep the line is compared to the more gentle slope of the lines in previous graphs. So what about supply? Supply in the gas market is very similar. When considering oil company A vs oil company B, all of our supply side factors like the state of technology and number of sellers would work for us, but when considering the gas market as a whole, we find that supply is also fairly inelastic. The state of technology and number of sellers aren't as much of a factor. The major shift factor left on the table when considering the world's gas market is the price of inputs. The major one being, of course, oil. If someone like Iran turns off their oil faucet or limits their oil production, what happens to the cost of oil? It goes up because there is now less of it than there was before. Thus what happens to the quantity supplied of gasoline if the quantity of a major input (oil) is reduced? The quantity supplied will be reduced as well. So what happens when you have a market where there is an inelastic demand and an inelastic supply and there is even a slight shift in both the supply and demand curves? Since both of them have very steep slopes, even a slight shift in both curves causes the point where they intersect (the market equilibrium) to get dramatically higher. I can't find a graph for that one, but based on the graphs already present you should be able to imagine what it looks like. Now lets consider the one factor that I have left out, but that effects BOTH curves: Price expectations. If consumers expect the price of a good to increase shortly, what do they do? They run out and buy before the increase hits. What does this do to the quantity of the good? Decreases it. Now consider that the world oil market works the same way. If Opec says they are going to reduce production shortly, what happens? People start buying up the now more scarce oil like crazy because they expect the price to increase in the near future. And indeed it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, as the price DOES increase, but now not just because of the decreased supply, but also because of people in the oil market trying to leverage as much oil as they can. Then add to that the consumers who hear that oil prices are going up and who start flooding to the gas pumps to fill up before the price increase hits....Thus all of a sudden the demand curve for gas gets pushed up even FURTHER and the ammount of gas on the market shrinks even faster than it would have eventually thanks to decreased oil production. Now on the supply side the companies have less oil to refine, and their existing stores of gasoline are dwindling fast as people rush out to the pump to beat the price increase. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how gas prices can jump .75 per gallon in a single week. If you reverse the process, then you also see how gas prices can drop .75 per gallon in a single week. Everything touches everything in a market. Thus a single action which in and of itself isn't so bad can be just the first domino in an economic chain reaction which can end in something like 3.50 a gallon for gas. |
NOOOO! We can't drill there! We'd ruin a few acres of beautiful Alaskan countryside, and we only have a billion or so acres to spare! And the animals hate it! That's why they always gather around the pipes, to look at the devestation and worry about the future! |
| Johnwayne777, Thats a very interesting graph. I fail to see what it has to do at all with the topic at hand. Were not bemoaning the price of gas or the market factors behind it. One person mentioned a discovery like we've just been saved from Opec, And some of us are pointing out that at most its a few years worth if were lucky. thats all. Besides S&D doesnt really work when your dealing with a cartel now does it?? |
Every drop of oil we can produce domestically decreases the power of OPEC to set the world market price for oil. That is the point of all those graphs and that brief economic lesson. [quoe] thats all. Besides S&D doesnt really work when your dealing with a cartel now does it?? Yes, S&D DOES work....even against cartels. The answer is to limit the influence of people like OPEC by exploiting domestic sources as much as possible, and then when they are not in the position to put the squeeze on the world oil markets to use their weakened state and make them behave their silly selves. |
If we are lucky? How would losing 500,000 BPD from the OTHER GoM fields be considered "lucky"? Because that "2 year supply" is based on that one field supplying our total needs. This one new discovery is NOT the sole producer nor will it be for the next 20 years. And the beauty of the GoM is the fact most oil produced there stays there. Why? Because there is demand, the transport costs are minimal with the field to shore pipelines. While Arabian/Iranian oil is in decline, GoM is going deep and growing. |
CORRECT, if we were fucking retarded, and believed the bullshit you continue to post. SOME fucksticks seem to think we only pull from 1 fucking well at a time until it is empty????? DO YOU REALLY THINK WE ARE GONNA PULL 21 MILLION BARRELS A DAY FROM THAT ONE WELL???????? FUCKTARDS drive me nuts. TXL |
But wait a minute! We only had 30 years worth of oil left on Earth back in 1970! We already ran out, but news spreads slowly. |
I'm going to follow your lead. As soon as you shut off your furnace (winter and summer!) and permanently park your SUV, I will do the same. It will be the "baby step" you seek. 
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I question whether this is really new news. Everyone already knows that there is a huge amount of oil deep in the gulf. The confirmation that there is even more oil deeper in the gulf isn't exactly earth shattering Karlrovian news. |
Don't candy-coat it, tell us how you really feel. These fucking "peak oil" chickenshits are following a dead anachronism. Hubbert has been dead for DECADES and would not have imagined PRODUCTIVE drilling in 10,000 feet of seawater with a well depth 5 miles under the mudline. In fact, his HYPOTHESIS predates the INTEGRATED CIRCUIT! Hell, even engineers 10 years ago would tell you that you would be insane to think you could drill in half that depth. But it is happening. |
Then you need to get busy: I sold my SUV and bought a car. In New England, that's suicide in the winter. (eta: went from 19 MPG HWY to 30 MPG hwy) Also, we have PLENTY of firewood and PLENTY of throws and afgans. My thermostat does not rise above 64 degrees at any time. Other conservation? If it doesn't move, I recycle it. I also bought a 12 gallon vs 40 gallon washing machine: all clothes washed in cold water. I also shop using cloth bags (No plastic or paper is wasted). So Mike,  |
Well, geez, I did all that years ago. I bought a Camry for 35 MPH, have only washed in cold water for YEARS, don't use AC in the house EVER, recycle, etc. My point was, there's no problem which can't be overcome with technology--and time. No hand-wringing needed, the sky is NOT falling. 
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When added to other sources, your two years' worth of oil will go a long, long ways. But then again you knew this and decided it didn't contain enough shock value to scare us away from the good news. Typical environmentalist. |
what the hell else are we supposed to go with oil and gas sitting under the surface of the earth? What other use does it have on this planet? If we dont suck it out of the ground and use it what good is it? |