Originally Posted By GoldenMead:
SecDef today said the US won’t allow deep strikes into Russia with US weapons.  Also people at the Pentagon and White House were hinting that Ukraine was going to get a lot less ATACMS in the future due to a limited number available.

Saddest part of all of this is we say it out loud so Russia knows what we are doing.

Originally Posted By Capta:

This is one question I keep coming back to.
I sincerely believe the Russian Empire is all-in against the west and aren’t going to rethink or go quietly.
The war in Ukraine is grinding up their mass of legacy gear, their first-class new gear is not that great, basically on par with our legacy gear, and their next-gen gear is non-functional/non-produceable.  Yes, they can still send a lot of infantry and make things unpleasant, but they can’t possibly win even against Europe alone.
The US is pumping out F-35s that, alone and with conventional munitions, could wipe out the Russian ability to wage conventional war and even attack strategic nuclear forces.
So, what is the Russian angle?  I think part of it is bankrolling political division and strife in the west, but IMO they must have a hard power component in mind too.  Smuggling in nukes and detonating them?  Surprise attack by Wagner sabotage groups against strategic targets?  Space-based attacks with EMP?  First nuclear strike with whatever they can launch with no notice?

Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly:


I would as well, as in better times than these, those two would be ideal presidential material.  Unfortunately, we do not live in those "better times".  IF we wish to be recover as a Nation, we need some SoBs who are willing to do the needful, which involves a serious enema to the entire FedGov and restoring accountability, as well as some really hard decisions.  As stated earlier, the next President will be a wartime President; that cake has already been baked and is just waiting for the frosting. We can also expect, at best, a major Economic Recession as a best-case scenario going forward, with potentially a LOT worse coming down the pike.  Budget deficits combined with the necessary increase in Defense spending will require both a serious haircut to benefits AND the liquidation of entire departments within the government.  Then there is the matter of mobilizing a nation that has essentially demoralized itself over decades to both fight and fix a mountain of existential problems that have been allowed to fester. On top of that, this will also require massive reform of the defense procurement system as well as rebuilding domestic productive capability and the logistic infrastructure to support it for a war whose first battles are already being fought in Ukraine and the Levant, with the Philippines and potentially Taiwan fixing to go hot as well.  In short, the next President has to be willing to come out swinging BEFORE Day 1 and have vision and an iron will.  While we WANT intelligent people who are relatable policy wonks that understand 2nd- and 3rd-order effects (of which both Rubio and Cruz are prime examples), we NEED a couple of Sons of Bitches who are driven by will and are not put off by the massive amounts of Scheiß that is going to be flying into the rotational single-stage ventilation system (which describes both Trump and Vance).  Otherwise, we are stuck in a spiral of "half-rude" foreign policy notable for folding like an accordion in the face of adversarial opposition and an increasing level of domestic repression as we skate toward complete moral, political, and economic collapse.  Oh Well...

Originally Posted By Capta:

Agreed on most of that.
It’s hard to say what Harris’ policy on Russia/Iran/China/Ukraine would be.  I think it’s fair to say her Ukraine/Russia policy would continue to be similar to Biden’s, which has a Democratic and Republican consensus behind it, and which has been not great but not terrible.  It’s certainly been adequate to stalemating the war and may be moving in a more positive direction as no one much believes Russian shrieking anymore.
Iran seems likely to be a major problem unless Israel establishes some facts on the ground while the Biden administration is basically paralyzed.  IMO the Israelis have 2-4 months to make a play that Harris can’t stop.
China, plenty of dirt in both Democrat and Republican closets there.  I think really pivoting to China will break a lot of, well, china in both parties and will not be so easy unless China makes a move soon.
I don’t accept any longer either side’s ad-hominem memes about the other side.  One of them is “Harris is so stupid that even the Biden white house pigeonholed her where she couldn’t do any damage.”  And that may be true, but it’s also clear that the Biden team had plenty of reasons to isolate the President from non-team members.  I would have to do some reading and see some current policy proposals, or see who she was looking at for foreign policy advisors.

Originally Posted By lorazepam:

You sir, are a true retard. If she does ob-gyn, you have hit all the bases.

Originally Posted By klinc:


That will show them!

Originally Posted By Prime:

The Bazilevich family, whom Russia killed in Lviv pic.twitter.com/SGMGO7udn7

— Devana \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@DevanaUkraine) September 6, 2024

Originally Posted By lorazepam:

The EU is definitely the clean end of the turd.

Originally Posted By Capta:

Russian sources have frequently said a Trump win will be a net positive for them.
Trump and Trump-orbit people have made statements and taken positions that lend credence to this idea.
I’m not sure how that is contentious.

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



It is a good thing that F-35's aren't the only thing we make then.

They are making new F-15's, new F-16's.  F-18's are workhorses for the Navy as well.  And when the new 6th gen stuff comes online, the F-35 will be like the F-16 is today a stealthy work horse.  But the F-35 is such a leap over any other aircraft at a price that is hard to ignore other countries  go with it when they see what it offers vs. the competition.


And we are mass producing them.  I thought that is what people wanted, lots of stealthy planes to destroy the enemies most advanced SAM sites and war production quickly and efficiently   Then it is safer for the non stealthy aircraft to perform their missions.


What if we know the Chinese stealth aircraft vulnerabilities and can hack their system?  

Originally Posted By CleverNickname:
Huh, interesting.  That's fucking dumb on the part of the western Allies though.  If Stalin wanted to play it that way, each of the 50 states should also have had a GA membership (DC being on the UNSC), along with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

Y'all made me read the UN Charter.

There is no provision in the Charter for expelling a permanent member of the UNSC (there is a provision for expulsion from the GA). The USSR is a permanent member of the UNSC. So is the Republic of China. United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 transferred the RoC seat to the PRC, recognizing the PRC as the legitimate government of China. I have previously posted the text of that resolution, which is very simple and direct. So the precedent already exists for a change in status of member States to be reflected and recognized at the UN, including changing UNSC representation.

Given all nasty things Russia has done, including flagrant and repeated violations of Geneva conventions, the suggestion I had made earlier still has merit, even after reading the UN Charter. The UN GA can, in recognition of the dissolution of the USSR and the war crimes perpetrated by the Russian Federation, vote to transfer the USSR's seat to Ukraine.

BUT - Ukraine had its own UN seat. We think of the USSR as a single state that encompassed Ukraine & Belarus. That's how it worked in practice, but at the UN, Ukraine & Belarus were independent republics and each were original members (this was one of Stalin's requirements). But that's only for the UN. As we all know, Ukraine & Belarus were fully controlled from Moscow. In fact, the US never recognized Ukraine as a nation until 1991 after the people voted to support independence by a wide margin. As a side note, the US recognized Estonia in 1922, and never officially recognized USSR's annexation of it.



Something else I read in the UN Charter. When a dispute affects a UNSC member, that member must abstain from UNSC action on the dispute it question. Not sure why this provision hasn't been invoked yet. The UN is just proving how useless and irrelevant it is. The US needs to eliminate donations to the UN.

Originally Posted By Capta:

Probably a Russian disinfo op.  Their best chance of not having to face a program they couldn’t compete with was to kill it or cripple it outright.

Originally Posted By Jaehaerys:
"SIGNUM" unit of the 93rd separate mechanized brigade shared video footage of their FPV drones to destroy 49 different drones (48 mid-sized recon drones and 1 lancet). This is really interesting, because it demonstrates that using FPV drones to down ISR drones is not just something that happens occasionally by random chance, but rather something that can actually significantly attrit enemy ISR assets. It also corroborates earlier reports from Russian milbloggers that the new TTP of using FPVs to target ISR drones was having a noticeable effect. Although this almost certainly isn't open source information, I'd be curious what the targeting process is for this. I'd also be curious whether this is another instance where we see Ukraine come up with a new invention/TTP and Russia standardizes it better. There's probably less incentive for the Russians to do that, though, given that Ukraine doesn't have nearly as much in the way of legitimate ISR drones.

Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Russian Fiber-Optic FPV Drone attack a group of Ukrainian soldiers inside a building



Note the quality of the video feed.

Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
China is asshole

BREAKING:

Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim says he will ignore China’s demand on Malaysia to cease oil drilling in Malaysia’s Exclusive Economic Zone in the waters off Sarawak.

The drilling zone is 100 km from Sarawak and 2000 km from mainland China, but China still claims the area. pic.twitter.com/shkLy66xtO

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 6, 2024

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWzZH6dWEAAM-Gu?format=jpg&name=900x900

Originally Posted By doc540:
War news.  This thread used to have it.

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

??\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 \uD83D\uDCA5 Munitions production update \uD83D\uDCA5\uD83E\uDDF5

New fact sheet on the UDCG's National Armaments Directors Meeting has a lot of information on a number of efforts, will highlight a few additional things in replies below. ??

?? US 155mm production has reached 40,000/month. Unclear if… pic.twitter.com/0X1fylwavh

— Colby Badhwar \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7 (@ColbyBadhwar) September 6, 2024

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GW0F676WAAAA91j?format=jpg&name=small

Originally Posted By Cypher15:
The same govt that wouldnt go after Taliban in Pakistan

Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

Archive link This is a good read.

Post-WWII was an age where America dominated in all places in all things. That era is over. In the new era, China will be the one dominating in all places and in all things. The age of the American Empire is ending. Our leaders don't seem to have a comprehensive plan to effectively manage America's decline.

I'm not saying this to be negative, and it should not be taken that way. All empires end, there is a rise and fall to every civilization & nation in world history, there are no exceptions. For better or worse, we live in the time of transition from the era of America to the age of China. You can try to argue that I'm wrong, but good luck making a case that will hold up over the next five years.

Facing domestic woes, the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts have become a growing burden for Iran

At the first meeting between Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the government formed by new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Khamenei listed two top national priorities – lowering inflation and reducing prices.

Pezeshkian explained what these orders mean in practice in his first media interview, in which he said he hoped to boost economic growth to eight percent and lower inflation by 30 percent.

To achieve this goal, he said, Iran needs $200 billion in investments. Half of that could come from local investors and businessmen, he continued. But the other half, around $100 billion, would have to come from outside. In other words, without an end to the sanctions on Iran, it won't be able to meet this goal.

Unlike other senior Iranian officials, including Khamenei himself, Pezeshkian doesn't hide the enormous damage the sanctions have caused and are still causing the Iranian economy, or the fact that the "resistance economy" – the term coined by Khamenei to justify strangling belt-tightening to withstand the sanctions – is boomeranging on the government, because it is harming the poorest Iranians. And the results of this policy aren't felt only on the macro level.

Shortly before the start of the school year, Iran's Education Ministry released worrying data showing that 167,000 elementary school students had dropped out of school. And the true number is apparently much higher.

According to estimates released by the Iranian parliament's research center, about a million students dropped out of the school system at every level in 2023.

Moreover, the Education Ministry said, the schools are short 176,000 teachers. It is therefore trying at the last minute to hire retired teachers or student teachers who haven't yet finished their education degrees.

Other data released by the parliament's Education Committee shows that some 14 million students come from families with trouble providing for their basic needs, meaning that many of them are forced to go to work instead of going to school.

The Health Ministry also had no good news to share. Since August 2, nurses have been on strike in most Iranian cities to demand better wages and working conditions.

They want their salaries adjusted for inflation, which is currently over 40 percent. They also want more nurses to be hired, payments for overtime and reimbursement for travel expenses.

According to the Supreme Council of the Nursing System, between 150 and 200 nurses emigrate from Iran every month, and about 20 percent of nursing school students say they intend to leave the country.

The above are just two prime examples of how this crisis not only affects the quality of life of Iranian workers today, but also the next generation. Nurses, teachers and other professionals aren't interested in major policy issues or plans for retaliation against Israel for its assassination of former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

It's true that the strikes and school dropouts aren't bringing masses of people into the streets like the murder of Mahsa Amini by the Morality Police did two years ago. They do, however, undermine the narrative that the Islamic Revolution and the regime it established are vastly preferable to the shah's government.

Pezeshkian, who was elected thanks to the votes of the reformists, is very familiar with this political minefield. He entered it with open eyes and is walking through it with great care, and for now, this has earned him Khamenei's support.

Granted, it's not clear how much his urging of Khamenei to exercise "restraint" in retaliating for Haniyeh's assassination was worth. But the fact that Khamenei gave prior approval to all 19 members of Pezeshkian's new cabinet (according to the president himself) shows that there's coordination and understanding between Iran's two top leaders.

No less important is Khamenei's statement, referring to the West in general and America in particular, that "we must suspect the enemy, but there's no obstacle to conducting negotiations with him," assuming that negotiations serve the country's interests.

This statement was interpreted as a green light for Pezeshkian and his government to take steps that could yield sanctions relief or even a full removal of the sanctions.

And indeed, in the brief time since he took office, Pezeshkian has already sent hints that he intends to negotiate with Western countries, and even with the United States.

This would naturally require Iran to present a new outline for its nuclear program that would be acceptable to the West in general, and the countries that signed the original nuclear deal with Iran (America, France, Britain, Russia and China) in particular.

What options is Iran considering, and will it agree to resume negotiations on a new nuclear deal? Tehran has been scattering hints, but it's hard to infer any practical steps from them.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said recently that resuming nuclear talks is no longer a goal and that the idea has become irrelevant. And yet, he added that Iran plans to unveil a new "military and diplomatic" strategy in order to reach a new kind of deal that would allow for the removal of the sanctions.

He didn't explain what he meant, but the very fact that he was appointed foreign minister, with Khamenei's approval, is an important signal in its own right.

That's because Araghchi, a fluent English speaker who had close ties with American negotiators back when he was running the talks on a nuclear deal, is suspected by Iranian conservatives of "working against the principles of the revolution" – that is, of being someone willing to capitulate to America.

And not only is Araghchi now serving in a very senior post, but Mohammad Javad Zarif – the former foreign minister who presided over the original nuclear deal and was originally appointed by Pezeshkian as vice president for strategic affairs, only to resign in protest over the composition of Pezeshkian's cabinet – returned to his vice presidential office last week.

Thus, if Khamenei decides to change Iran's policy, the Zarif-Araghchi duo will likely breathe new life into dialogue with the West about the nuclear deal. Perhaps Pezeshkian will be clearer on this issue at the UN General Assembly, which will take place in New York in two weeks.

At the same time, Iran remains concerned and wary of developments in the Middle East, pursuing a cautious policy aimed, at least publicly, at avoiding a full-scale war, which would likely be centered around Lebanon.

Tehran sees that the "ring of fire" it created to defend itself may well backfire and hurt not only Lebanon – its most important regional asset – but also itself, particularly without the backing of a superpower like Israel has in the United States.

China remains Iran's most important trading partner, but it isn't a military ally, and Iran's confidence in Russia's support is also far from absolute.

Discussions between Tehran and Moscow on a new strategic cooperation deal to replace the one signed more than 20 years ago are being delayed, and recently, Russia has already infuriated Iran by announcing its support for establishing the Zangezur corridor between Azerbaijan and the enclave of Nakhchivan in Armenia.

This transportation corridor would run along the length of the border between Armenia and Iran, and allow free movement, with no border control checkpoints, between Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Under the Russian-mediated peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the corridor will be overseen by Russia and Azerbaijan, rather than by Armenia, as Iran had demanded.

Iran fears that this corridor would effectively block its access to Armenia, and from there to Europe. It therefore views it much like Israel views the Philadelphi corridor that runs along the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt. Yet precisely on an issue of such strategic importance, Russia wasn't on its side.

To demonstrate its displeasure with Russia's conduct, Iran sent a warm congratulatory message to Ukraine in honor of its Independence Day in August, a gesture that clutched Russia's stomach.

Although Russia buys Iranian missiles and drones, the Iranians consider it a country that threatens its interests in the Caucasus, allows Israel to strike Syria, and tends to support the United Arab Emirates in the issue of control of the Lesser Tunb and Abu Mussa islands in the Straits of Hormuz, which Iran claims.

This week, former Iranian MP Ali Motahhari posted on X a letter to President Pezeshkian, stating, "Russia has never considered Iran's interests. Especially now, when it is entangled in a war with Ukraine."

With a perforated "security belt" and a dire economic situation pushing it towards dialogue with European countries, the Gulf states, and possibly the United States, the war in Gaza and Lebanon has increasingly become a burden on Iran, threatening its own strategic and economic interests. At the moment, Tehran has no exit strategy from the "response equation" it jointly devised with Hezbollah and its other proxies.