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Link Posted: 10/16/2024 3:42:28 PM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By fadedsun:


The brits have needed to retrofit protected stowage to the challenger for decades.

I believe the CR3 does this.
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Originally Posted By fadedsun:


The brits have needed to retrofit protected stowage to the challenger for decades.

I believe the CR3 does this.


And the Challenger 2 does not have any blow-off panels.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 3:42:45 PM EDT
[#2]
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 3:58:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: fike] [#3]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Yes. Post 1991, they assumed the Russians were now friendly and/or USA would intimidate the Russian and keep them from ever trying anything and having an actual military was wasteful NATO commitments be damned . Now that the Russians have militarized and made their move and the USA backed down, they are stuck between trying to fight with an army they haven't had in decades or succumbing to aggression. They think that Russian occupation would just simply add another layer of bureaucracy but things would be not too bad and much better than back in April 1945 with vengeful and drunk Russians turning beautiful European cities to rubble and raping every female from age 7 to 70.

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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By fike:


Breaking it down to core emotions, they aren’t scared of Russia anymore.

Yes. Post 1991, they assumed the Russians were now friendly and/or USA would intimidate the Russian and keep them from ever trying anything and having an actual military was wasteful NATO commitments be damned . Now that the Russians have militarized and made their move and the USA backed down, they are stuck between trying to fight with an army they haven't had in decades or succumbing to aggression. They think that Russian occupation would just simply add another layer of bureaucracy but things would be not too bad and much better than back in April 1945 with vengeful and drunk Russians turning beautiful European cities to rubble and raping every female from age 7 to 70.



No. They are literally not scared of Russia anymore. They don’t give a shit about getting the totality of Ukraine’s land back, but they sure as shit aren’t worried in Paris or Berlin.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:03:45 PM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
South Korea's Defense Ministry has announced that it's "closely monitoring" reports that Russia is training North Korean troops for deployment in Ukraine.

Should these troops be sent to the front lines, South Korea is likely to respond by starting to send direct military aid to Ukraine.
View Quote

I suggest that SK could provide Ukraine with a ship to use as a mobile base for Sea Baby and other drones to wreak havoc on the cargo shipping from NK to Russia. And also the Russian oil terminal of Nakhodka.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:07:09 PM EDT
[#5]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
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Expensive day.

https://www.audacy.com/talk1370/news/business/defense-contractor-raytheon-agrees-to-pay-252-m-penalty-to-resolve-qatar-bribery-charges

Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:14:16 PM EDT
[#6]
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:17:27 PM EDT
[#7]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
pornstache peskov
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Part of the implications for the things that are happening is that Russia will never admit fault, Russia will never admit that they did indeed start a war, were aggressors, launched an invasion. Part of winning means never having to confront any of their lies. Winning means that their lies become the truth. Ponder that for a minute.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:18:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#8]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/th-463.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaBkJELbIAEYVZ8?format=png&name=mediumA Draw Is a Win: The Houthis After One Year of War/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/th-463.jpg
Don’t touch the boats.
View Quote



Seriously doubt lol.  The missile would have been seen soon after launch and the multiple ship radars would have been watching it.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:27:46 PM EDT
[#9]
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Ukraine/Europe
Israel/Lebanon/Iran
China/Taiwan

I would add North Korea since I believe they will go hot as a distraction to Taiwan invasion. Before or maybe after if the landings don't go well.

All of these hot spots have a weak US/leadership vacuum or maybe actual US support for the bad actors: US seems intent on giving Iran the bomb, helping Iran raise the money while sandbagging Israel at every turn. US also disarmed Ukraine and tolerated a weak and uncommitted NATO and the EU dependent on Russia. US also created the Chinese monster with our absurd trade imbalance and tolerance for Chines espionage.
View Quote

If we think things are going to kick off in Korea, we should probably go ahead and send extra troops. China will likely implement full area denial when they kick off hostilities with Taiwan. Those hostilities will start once the first attempt to break the blockade happens.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:29:27 PM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Seriously doubt lol.  The missile would have been seen soon after launch and the multiple ship radars would have been watching it.
View Quote
As I recall, one of our destroyers had to resort to CIWS for an inbound missile earlier this year.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:30:20 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#11]
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Originally Posted By Rifle_length:
As I recall, one of our destroyers had to resort to CIWS for an inbound missile earlier this year.
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Originally Posted By Rifle_length:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Seriously doubt lol.  The missile would have been seen soon after launch and the multiple ship radars would have been watching it.
As I recall, one of our destroyers had to resort to CIWS for an inbound missile earlier this year.



As long as the incoming vampires get shot down.  A ballistic missile on a shallow trajectory is easier to spot than an cruise missile on a low altitude run toward a ship. just because of physics.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:53:08 PM EDT
[#12]
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 4:53:31 PM EDT
[#13]
Inside Ukraine’s Top-Secret Drone Unit Targeting Russia

Haye KestelooHaye Kesteloo




In an unprecedented move, CNN was granted exclusive access to one of Ukraine‘s most closely guarded secrets: a fleet of long-range attack drones operated by the country’s elite defense intelligence agency, the GUR. As reported by CNN, this covert unit has conducted a staggering 500+ drone strikes deep within Russian borders since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The Shadow Warriors: Inside the Long-Range UAV Unit

Known simply as the Long-Range UAV Unit to its tight-knit group of members, this elite team operates under the watchful command of two key individuals: Serge, the seasoned long-range drone operations commander, and Vector, the unit’s steadfast leader. CNN’s journalists spent an intensive two days embedded with the unit as it meticulously prepared to launch a swarm of over 100 drones on a high-stakes mission targeting a strategic ammunition depot located in Kotluban, Russia. Intelligence reports indicated that the depot was being used to store recently delivered Iranian missiles, making it a top-priority target.



David vs. Goliath: Overwhelming Russian Air Defenses

The unit’s primary workhorses are the formidable AN-196 Liutyi drones, boasting an impressive 23-foot wingspan and the ability to carry a substantial 550-pound payload. However, the success of any mission hinges not just on these powerful machines, but also on the critical role played by the smaller, more rudimentary Rubaka kamikaze drones acting as decoys. “They’re very simple, and we can use them with and without payloads,” Vector explained, underlining their versatility. These unassuming drones serve a vital purpose: overwhelming Russian air defenses and drawing fire away from the main attack drones, greatly increasing the chances of a successful strike.



The Art of War: Meticulous Mission Planning

Each drone in the unit’s arsenal is programmed with a staggering array of over 1,000 unique waypoints, all carefully designed to evade Russia’s sophisticated and comprehensive air defense systems. The importance of this intricate planning cannot be overstated, as Vector emphatically noted, “Planning is maybe 60% part of the success, everything depends on the planning.” Despite the formidable challenges posed by Russian defenses, the unit remains undeterred. “We’re successful guys and we find the windows,” Vector added confidently.



No Limits: Striking Deep Inside Russia

The Long-Range UAV Unit’s track record speaks for itself, with several notable attacks showcasing their ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory. Past missions have included striking a key ammunition depot in the Tver region and crippling an oil refinery along Russia’s strategic Black Sea coast. However, the unit’s operations are not without challenges, as Russian air defenses have managed to thwart many of their attempts. The unit’s leadership believes that their success rate could skyrocket from 50% to an astonishing 95% if given the green light to employ Western weapons on Russian soil.



The Fog of War: Assessing Mission Success

Assessing the success of each mission is a complex task, requiring the unit to rely on a combination of human intelligence, monitoring Russian Telegram channels, and meticulous analysis of satellite imagery. In the case of the high-stakes Kotluban strike, initial satellite images seemed to suggest little evidence of major explosions.

However, the GUR provided CNN with access to a verified video that told a different story: a series of 11 massive explosions rocking the depot during the precise window when the drones were expected to arrive. Subsequent satellite images corroborated this evidence, confirming damage to the facility and indicating that the mission had indeed succeeded in eliminating the Iranian-supplied missiles.

As Serge solemnly reflected, “We are constantly forcing the enemy to think about what they did in February 2022. They must realize that we are getting stronger every day and we are bringing our victory and their defeat closer.”

DroneXL’s Take: The Future of Warfare

The Long-Range UAV Unit’s groundbreaking operations serve as a powerful testament to the rapidly growing significance of drone technology in the ever-evolving landscape of modern warfare. As we’ve witnessed in recent conflicts around the globe, drones have emerged as a game-changing, cost-effective, and risk-reducing means of conducting long-range strikes and vital reconnaissance missions. The Ukrainian unit’s innovative use of decoy drones to overwhelm enemy air defenses is particularly noteworthy, demonstrating how tactical adaptations and creative thinking can dramatically impact the success of a mission.

However, this article also serves to underscore the profound challenges that come with employing drones in heavily contested airspace, as evidenced by the unit’s sobering 50% success rate against Russian defenses. As Drone Technology continues to advance at a breakneck pace, it will be imperative for militaries worldwide to prioritize investment in cutting-edge counter-drone systems and to develop new, dynamic tactics to defend against these emerging threats.

This eye-opening report raises crucial questions about the future of warfare and the role of attack drones in modern conflicts. What are your thoughts on this rapidly evolving landscape? Do you believe that the proliferation of drone technology will lead to a new era of warfare, or do you think that the challenges posed by advanced air defense systems will limit their effectiveness? Leave a comment below and join the discussion – we want to hear your perspective on this critical issue!

https://dronexl.co/2024/10/16/inside-ukraines-top-secret-drone-unit-targeting-russia/

Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:26:10 PM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaCXulnXwAAXJ9I?format=jpg&name=large
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If nothing else this war has improved  my ability  to ID Eastern block aircraft.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:27:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: castlebravo84] [#15]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



As long as the incoming vampires get shot down.  A ballistic missile on a shallow trajectory is easier to spot than an cruise missile on a low altitude run toward a ship. just because of physics.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Rifle_length:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Seriously doubt lol.  The missile would have been seen soon after launch and the multiple ship radars would have been watching it.
As I recall, one of our destroyers had to resort to CIWS for an inbound missile earlier this year.



As long as the incoming vampires get shot down.  A ballistic missile on a shallow trajectory is easier to spot than an cruise missile on a low altitude run toward a ship. just because of physics.


You can't always make conclusions like that. GMLRS for instance would in theory be easy to for something like an S300 to deal with if it can handle much faster ballistic missiles, but it's speed being closer to a supersonic jet than a BM may have made the Russian systems classify it in a way that made it more difficult for the operators to work the problem and shoot in the limited time they had.  Certain versions of AEGIS have to be put in either air defense or ballistic missile defense mode, so if the ship assigned to protect the carrier was set to ballistic missile mode while some other asset like a Hawkeye or something was looking for drones and cruise missiles, I could see a situation where a missile on an unplanned for depressed trajectory might slip past systems that could easily detect it but may have been inadvertently set to filter out contacts matchng it's flight characteristics, or at least have the contacts pushed to systems/processes that are meant for much slower threats that give enough time for people to follow the procedures set forth to sort through and engage them.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:39:25 PM EDT
[#16]
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Originally Posted By Javak:
How Israel’s bulky pager fooled Hezbollah

"BEIRUT, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The batteries inside the weaponised pagers that arrived in Lebanon at the start of the year, part of an Israeli plot to decimate Hezbollah, had powerfully deceptive features and an Achilles' heel.

The agents who built the pagers designed a battery that concealed a small but potent charge of plastic explosive and a novel detonator that was invisible to X-ray, according to a Lebanese source with first-hand knowledge of the pagers, and teardown photos of the battery pack seen by Reuters.

To overcome the weakness - the absence of a plausible backstory for the bulky new product - they created fake online stores, pages and posts that could deceive Hezbollah due diligence, a Reuters review of web archives shows.

The stealthy design of the pager bomb and the battery’s carefully constructed cover story, both described here for the first time, shed light on the execution of a years-long operation which has struck unprecedented blows against Israel's Iran-backed Lebanese foe and pushed the Middle East closer to a regional war."
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Very interesting. I wonder what % of the pagers failed to detonate. A collector's item for sure. As far as products go, the Mossad pager must have the worst customer review of any product in history..."1.5 stars out of 5...it worked ok until it blew 3 fingers off my left hand and blinded me" .
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:40:41 PM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By fadedsun:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/51435/GaAo0NoXEAAPt_M_jpeg-3350889.JPG

Current Ukrainian losses as verified by the RU MOD
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Ironically an accurate reflection of Russian losses...
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:40:43 PM EDT
[#18]
There’s a direct relationship between missile speed a range. GMLRS is the speed that a missile with that range goes. And I doubt Russia is intercepting many of them.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:42:53 PM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
The deputy commander of the Training Center of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) of Russia (в/ч 43292), Colonel Nikita Klenkov, was shot dead in his car near Moscow.

According to available information, he returned from the combat zone in Ukraine around a week ago.

The assailant fired eight bullets, Baza reported.

https://t.me/istories_media/7854
https://t.me/bazabazon/32162
https://msk1.ru/text/criminal/2024/10/16/74218670/ was/were; 30 sec video of crime scene and investigators going over it.
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All I know for sure is Moscow is a rough town. And getting rougher every day.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:53:43 PM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
German opposition leader Merz attacks the appeasement policies of the Scholz government.

"We should not be afraid of Putin, but give him 24 hours to stop the bombing. And if he does not fulfill this demand, we should immediately give Ukraine all the necessary weapons, including Taurus, and lift all restrictions on their use."
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Amen brother.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:59:26 PM EDT
[#21]
Daily Ukraine map thread for Wednesday 16th October 2024

Highlights: Fair bit of losses marked today on both sides. Some further footage from Kursk emerged, clarifying some Russian losses but also much of the ground remains contested with no clear idea on who controls what near Olgovka.

Russian forces from 3rd Combined Arms Army assaulted  north of Verkhnokamyanske, in an attempt to show that they didn't just drop a Russian flag on the settlement the other week which we suspect got more media coverage than they had hoped... It did not go well.
Map: https://uacontrolmap.com
























































































Link Posted: 10/16/2024 5:59:41 PM EDT
[#22]
Pretty substantial news blackout going on in Israel.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 6:00:49 PM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaB-43cXoAAmjvN?format=png&name=small
View Quote

Instead of more of this "victory by defense" bullshit, those THAAD should be going to Japan or Guam, Taiwan or maybe even Ukraine instead of being used to bribe Israel into protecting Iranian nuke sites.

Israel will launch some neutered attack, Iran will respond, and those THAAD will be wasted dropping Iranian missiles that should have been bombed on the ground in Iran. Then the cycle will repeat until US soldiers are getting slaughtered by drones and missiles in some not so distant battlefield.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 6:54:10 PM EDT
[#24]
Big if true:

Link Posted: 10/16/2024 7:27:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By castlebravo84:


You can't always make conclusions like that. GMLRS for instance would in theory be easy to for something like an S300 to deal with if it can handle much faster ballistic missiles, but it's speed being closer to a supersonic jet than a BM may have made the Russian systems classify it in a way that made it more difficult for the operators to work the problem and shoot in the limited time they had.  Certain versions of AEGIS have to be put in either air defense or ballistic missile defense mode, so if the ship assigned to protect the carrier was set to ballistic missile mode while some other asset like a Hawkeye or something was looking for drones and cruise missiles, I could see a situation where a missile on an unplanned for depressed trajectory might slip past systems that could easily detect it but may have been inadvertently set to filter out contacts matchng it's flight characteristics, or at least have the contacts pushed to systems/processes that are meant for much slower threats that give enough time for people to follow the procedures set forth to sort through and engage them.
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Originally Posted By castlebravo84:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Rifle_length:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Seriously doubt lol.  The missile would have been seen soon after launch and the multiple ship radars would have been watching it.
As I recall, one of our destroyers had to resort to CIWS for an inbound missile earlier this year.



As long as the incoming vampires get shot down.  A ballistic missile on a shallow trajectory is easier to spot than an cruise missile on a low altitude run toward a ship. just because of physics.


You can't always make conclusions like that. GMLRS for instance would in theory be easy to for something like an S300 to deal with if it can handle much faster ballistic missiles, but it's speed being closer to a supersonic jet than a BM may have made the Russian systems classify it in a way that made it more difficult for the operators to work the problem and shoot in the limited time they had.  Certain versions of AEGIS have to be put in either air defense or ballistic missile defense mode, so if the ship assigned to protect the carrier was set to ballistic missile mode while some other asset like a Hawkeye or something was looking for drones and cruise missiles, I could see a situation where a missile on an unplanned for depressed trajectory might slip past systems that could easily detect it but may have been inadvertently set to filter out contacts matchng it's flight characteristics, or at least have the contacts pushed to systems/processes that are meant for much slower threats that give enough time for people to follow the procedures set forth to sort through and engage them.



Those are good points, but remember that the SBIR satellite constellation we have is very good at spotting ballistic missiles seconds after launch and tracking them.  There would have been some communication to the task group that a ballistic missile was heading their way, even if it was fired hundreds of miles from the task group.  My point is that most likely someone saw it coming.  However, the article doesn't name names, and doesn't give any real details about this engagement.  I suspect it didn't happen because a lot more people would have known about it if it was true.

Reference to the capability of missile warning from space with SBIR with examples.
SSC’s SBIRS constellation provides the space sensing and missile warning capabilities needed NOW




SBIRS Mission Overview - Lockheed Martin
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 7:28:22 PM EDT
[#26]
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Originally Posted By fike:
Pretty substantial news blackout going on in Israel.
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The pain to Iran is coming.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 8:27:53 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By fike:
Pretty substantial news blackout going on in Israel.
View Quote


That means something is coming.

Plans thrive in silence, or something like that.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 8:53:12 PM EDT
[#28]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Those are good points, but remember that the SBIR satellite constellation we have is very good at spotting ballistic missiles seconds after launch and tracking them.  There would have been some communication to the task group that a ballistic missile was heading their way, even if it was fired hundreds of miles from the task group.  My point is that most likely someone saw it coming.  However, the article doesn't name names, and doesn't give any real details about this engagement.  I suspect it didn't happen because a lot more people would have known about it if it was true.

Reference to the capability of missile warning from space with SBIR with examples.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xt8dwW4cgY



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDTnl4E9FiY
View Quote
The other thing that seems odd to me is that the missile tracked accurately all the way to the ship, then missed by 200 meters? Maybe that's more likely than I thought, especially with a crappy Iranian missile... but it also sounds like an unfalsifiable claim.

Also, if the missile got that close without being intercepted, why wouldn't they fire a couple more?

*I had to chop off the first part of the quoted post; there's an unclosed quote block in there somewhere and I coudn't find it.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 9:24:22 PM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaB5At2XYAAeERH?format=jpg&name=largehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaB5At7X0AA_SNe?format=jpg&name=mediumfrom this👇 and this👇
View Quote


Interesting. COTS Pixhawk cube, looks like an auzzie RFD900x (maybe different frequency band), COTS jet, and other COTS stuff. Saves money and generally works pretty well.

The airframe looks like it was made using a gel-coated mould resulting in a shiny surface. Can't really see why you'd want a shiny surface on a drone you're trying to keep from being seen.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 9:43:57 PM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By Prime:
Inside Ukraine’s Top-Secret Drone Unit Targeting Russia

Haye KestelooHaye Kesteloo


https://dronexl.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/img_4004-1-1536x850.jpg.webp

In an unprecedented move, CNN was granted exclusive access to one of Ukraine‘s most closely guarded secrets: a fleet of long-range attack drones operated by the country’s elite defense intelligence agency, the GUR. As reported by CNN, this covert unit has conducted a staggering 500+ drone strikes deep within Russian borders since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The Shadow Warriors: Inside the Long-Range UAV Unit

Known simply as the Long-Range UAV Unit to its tight-knit group of members, this elite team operates under the watchful command of two key individuals: Serge, the seasoned long-range drone operations commander, and Vector, the unit’s steadfast leader. CNN’s journalists spent an intensive two days embedded with the unit as it meticulously prepared to launch a swarm of over 100 drones on a high-stakes mission targeting a strategic ammunition depot located in Kotluban, Russia. Intelligence reports indicated that the depot was being used to store recently delivered Iranian missiles, making it a top-priority target.

https://dronexl.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/img_4015-1.jpg.webp

David vs. Goliath: Overwhelming Russian Air Defenses

The unit’s primary workhorses are the formidable AN-196 Liutyi drones, boasting an impressive 23-foot wingspan and the ability to carry a substantial 550-pound payload. However, the success of any mission hinges not just on these powerful machines, but also on the critical role played by the smaller, more rudimentary Rubaka kamikaze drones acting as decoys. “They’re very simple, and we can use them with and without payloads,” Vector explained, underlining their versatility. These unassuming drones serve a vital purpose: overwhelming Russian air defenses and drawing fire away from the main attack drones, greatly increasing the chances of a successful strike.

https://dronexl.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/img_4008-1.jpg.webp

The Art of War: Meticulous Mission Planning

Each drone in the unit’s arsenal is programmed with a staggering array of over 1,000 unique waypoints, all carefully designed to evade Russia’s sophisticated and comprehensive air defense systems. The importance of this intricate planning cannot be overstated, as Vector emphatically noted, “Planning is maybe 60% part of the success, everything depends on the planning.” Despite the formidable challenges posed by Russian defenses, the unit remains undeterred. “We’re successful guys and we find the windows,” Vector added confidently.

https://dronexl.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/img_4010-1.jpg.webp

No Limits: Striking Deep Inside Russia

The Long-Range UAV Unit’s track record speaks for itself, with several notable attacks showcasing their ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory. Past missions have included striking a key ammunition depot in the Tver region and crippling an oil refinery along Russia’s strategic Black Sea coast. However, the unit’s operations are not without challenges, as Russian air defenses have managed to thwart many of their attempts. The unit’s leadership believes that their success rate could skyrocket from 50% to an astonishing 95% if given the green light to employ Western weapons on Russian soil.

https://dronexl.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/img_4014-1.jpg.webphttps://dronexl.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/img_4013-1.jpg.webp

The Fog of War: Assessing Mission Success

Assessing the success of each mission is a complex task, requiring the unit to rely on a combination of human intelligence, monitoring Russian Telegram channels, and meticulous analysis of satellite imagery. In the case of the high-stakes Kotluban strike, initial satellite images seemed to suggest little evidence of major explosions.

However, the GUR provided CNN with access to a verified video that told a different story: a series of 11 massive explosions rocking the depot during the precise window when the drones were expected to arrive. Subsequent satellite images corroborated this evidence, confirming damage to the facility and indicating that the mission had indeed succeeded in eliminating the Iranian-supplied missiles.

As Serge solemnly reflected, “We are constantly forcing the enemy to think about what they did in February 2022. They must realize that we are getting stronger every day and we are bringing our victory and their defeat closer.”

DroneXL’s Take: The Future of Warfare

The Long-Range UAV Unit’s groundbreaking operations serve as a powerful testament to the rapidly growing significance of drone technology in the ever-evolving landscape of modern warfare. As we’ve witnessed in recent conflicts around the globe, drones have emerged as a game-changing, cost-effective, and risk-reducing means of conducting long-range strikes and vital reconnaissance missions. The Ukrainian unit’s innovative use of decoy drones to overwhelm enemy air defenses is particularly noteworthy, demonstrating how tactical adaptations and creative thinking can dramatically impact the success of a mission.

However, this article also serves to underscore the profound challenges that come with employing drones in heavily contested airspace, as evidenced by the unit’s sobering 50% success rate against Russian defenses. As Drone Technology continues to advance at a breakneck pace, it will be imperative for militaries worldwide to prioritize investment in cutting-edge counter-drone systems and to develop new, dynamic tactics to defend against these emerging threats.

This eye-opening report raises crucial questions about the future of warfare and the role of attack drones in modern conflicts. What are your thoughts on this rapidly evolving landscape? Do you believe that the proliferation of drone technology will lead to a new era of warfare, or do you think that the challenges posed by advanced air defense systems will limit their effectiveness? Leave a comment below and join the discussion – we want to hear your perspective on this critical issue!

https://dronexl.co/2024/10/16/inside-ukraines-top-secret-drone-unit-targeting-russia/

View Quote


But wait, weren't we told by an "SME" that Ukraine has had "hundreds of thousands" of failures and very low success percentages in their longer-range drone warfare? Seems like 50% success rate is exceptionally good given the rooskie AD they go up against. Wasn't clear to me from reading that exactly how being able to use western weapons on Russian soil would take the group up to 95% success. Are they saying that western stealth weapons would clobber rooskie targets better than their own or is it something more like western weapons would destroy AD and EW and soften up the entry?
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 9:55:41 PM EDT
[#31]
I believe they mean that complex raids using western weapons would be much more successful.

Link Posted: 10/16/2024 9:59:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#32]
⭕️Urgent⭕️ American-British aggression against the capital, Sanaa, and Saada Governorate Almasirah.net.ye ⓣ.me/almasirah2

https://t.me/almasirah2/170565



⭕️Urgent⭕️ Our correspondent in Sana'a: 3 waves of raids by American-British aggression aircraft on the capital, Sana'a Almasirah.net.ye ⓣ.me/almasirah2

https://t.me/almasirah2/170566



⭕️Urgent⭕️ Our correspondent in Saada: A series of raids by the US-British aggression aircraft east of the city Almasirah.net.ye ⓣ.me/almasirah2

https://t.me/almasirah2/170567







Unconfirmed news about the downing of an American plane by Yemeni defenses
The investigation is still ongoing.

https://x.com/anesmansory/status/1846723695009571057






Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:06:04 PM EDT
[#33]


Posted 2ish hrs ago. Couple of sub-1:30 videos.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:07:36 PM EDT
[#34]
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:09:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO] [#35]
you read that right.👇
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:17:23 PM EDT
[#36]
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Originally Posted By HIPPO:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaDq73PWYAAkVf3?format=jpg&name=large you read that right.👇
View Quote


The use of the B-2 is really interesting to me.  Either some general decided the B-2 crews needed some real world experience or there is something else going on that isn’t public info. That’s a long and expensive mission to bomb the same people we’ve been bombing with 4th generation aircraft for the last several months.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:21:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: castlebravo84] [#37]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Those are good points, but remember that the SBIR satellite constellation we have is very good at spotting ballistic missiles seconds after launch and tracking them.  There would have been some communication to the task group that a ballistic missile was heading their way, even if it was fired hundreds of miles from the task group.  My point is that most likely someone saw it coming.  However, the article doesn't name names, and doesn't give any real details about this engagement.  I suspect it didn't happen because a lot more people would have known about it if it was true.

Reference to the capability of missile warning from space with SBIR with examples.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xt8dwW4cgY



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDTnl4E9FiY
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By castlebravo84:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Originally Posted By Rifle_length:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:



Seriously doubt lol.  The missile would have been seen soon after launch and the multiple ship radars would have been watching it.
As I recall, one of our destroyers had to resort to CIWS for an inbound missile earlier this year.



As long as the incoming vampires get shot down.  A ballistic missile on a shallow trajectory is easier to spot than an cruise missile on a low altitude run toward a ship. just because of physics.


You can't always make conclusions like that. GMLRS for instance would in theory be easy to for something like an S300 to deal with if it can handle much faster ballistic missiles, but it's speed being closer to a supersonic jet than a BM may have made the Russian systems classify it in a way that made it more difficult for the operators to work the problem and shoot in the limited time they had.  Certain versions of AEGIS have to be put in either air defense or ballistic missile defense mode, so if the ship assigned to protect the carrier was set to ballistic missile mode while some other asset like a Hawkeye or something was looking for drones and cruise missiles, I could see a situation where a missile on an unplanned for depressed trajectory might slip past systems that could easily detect it but may have been inadvertently set to filter out contacts matchng it's flight characteristics, or at least have the contacts pushed to systems/processes that are meant for much slower threats that give enough time for people to follow the procedures set forth to sort through and engage them.



Those are good points, but remember that the SBIR satellite constellation we have is very good at spotting ballistic missiles seconds after launch and tracking them.  There would have been some communication to the task group that a ballistic missile was heading their way, even if it was fired hundreds of miles from the task group.  My point is that most likely someone saw it coming.  However, the article doesn't name names, and doesn't give any real details about this engagement.  I suspect it didn't happen because a lot more people would have known about it if it was true.

Reference to the capability of missile warning from space with SBIR with examples.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xt8dwW4cgY



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDTnl4E9FiY



I agree we would have detected it, but that information might have been passed on to a DDG running in BMD mode that wasn't able to engage it because it was setup to intercept normal ballistic missiles and not an unexpected depressed trajectory shot from closer range.  By the time that was sorted out and the information was passed on to whatever asset would be able to handle it, it might have been too late.   A lot of things happen between seeing the launch and firing an interceptor at it, and in this type of fiery but mostly peaceful campaign where you can't just let Aegis go full Cylon Base Star on everything it sees, most of those things probably happen at the speed of a bunch people trying to avoid smoking an Airbus rather than the speed of a computer.  If something completely unexpected happens that falls outside the rehearsed procedures, maybe a missile can get through.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:21:52 PM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By Bunn19:


The use of the B-2 is really interesting to me.  Either some general decided the B-2 crews needed some real world experience or there is something else going on that isn’t public info. That’s a long and expensive mission to bomb the same people we’ve been bombing with 4th generation aircraft for the last several months.
View Quote


This.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:25:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO] [#39]
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:27:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: j_hooker] [#40]
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Originally Posted By Finslayer83:


This.
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Originally Posted By Finslayer83:
Originally Posted By Bunn19:


The use of the B-2 is really interesting to me.  Either some general decided the B-2 crews needed some real world experience or there is something else going on that isn’t public info. That’s a long and expensive mission to bomb the same people we’ve been bombing with 4th generation aircraft for the last several months.


This.

I believe it’s a message to Iran that we have the capability to go in unnoticed and hit.  A refresher to the Middle East of the US capabilities.
The good ol’ FAFO
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:29:33 PM EDT
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bunn19:


The use of the B-2 is really interesting to me.  Either some general decided the B-2 crews needed some real world experience or there is something else going on that isn't public info. That's a long and expensive mission to bomb the same people we've been bombing with 4th generation aircraft for the last several months.
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Originally Posted By Bunn19:
Originally Posted By HIPPO:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaDq73PWYAAkVf3?format=jpg&name=large you read that right.


The use of the B-2 is really interesting to me.  Either some general decided the B-2 crews needed some real world experience or there is something else going on that isn't public info. That's a long and expensive mission to bomb the same people we've been bombing with 4th generation aircraft for the last several months.
I wonder if this was at least partially a message to the Houthis that if you continue firing missiles at our ships, we're prepared to use whatever is necessary.

And IMO this lends some credence to the reports that they targeted one of our carriers.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:29:51 PM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

I suggest that SK could provide Ukraine with a ship to use as a mobile base for Sea Baby and other drones to wreak havoc on the cargo shipping from NK to Russia. And also the Russian oil terminal of Nakhodka.
View Quote


Nakhodka has a KFC.  Who'da thunk it.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:30:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Finslayer83] [#43]
beat!
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:39:49 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By absael:
I wonder if this was at least partially a message to the Houthis that if you continue firing missiles at our ships, we're prepared to use whatever is necessary.
View Quote

A better message would be to send a dozen B52's over Yemen and just carpet bomb the fuckers.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:44:17 PM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By CleverNickname:

A better message would be to send a dozen B52's over Yemen and just carpet bomb the fuckers.
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Originally Posted By CleverNickname:
Originally Posted By absael:
I wonder if this was at least partially a message to the Houthis that if you continue firing missiles at our ships, we're prepared to use whatever is necessary.

A better message would be to send a dozen B52's over Yemen and just carpet bomb the fuckers.
You won't get any argument from me.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 10:56:47 PM EDT
[#46]
Do you think the Iranians sh!t themselves when they found out a fully loaded B-2 was in the neighborhood dropping payloads?

Link Posted: 10/16/2024 11:22:47 PM EDT
[#47]
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Originally Posted By CleverNickname:

A better message would be to send a dozen B52's over Yemen and just carpet bomb the fuckers.
View Quote


Depending on the size of the bombs in question the B-52H can carry more or fewer bombs than a B-2 but more importantly with Iranian state backing the likelihood that the Houthis have some ADA capability threatening bombers is too high for comfort.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 11:35:01 PM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By GBTX01:
Do you think the Iranians sh!t themselves when they found out a fully loaded B-2 was in the neighborhood dropping payloads?

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Yemen isn’t close to iran
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 11:35:46 PM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:


Depending on the size of the bombs in question the B-52H can carry more or fewer bombs than a B-2 but more importantly with Iranian state backing the likelihood that the Houthis have some ADA capability threatening bombers is too high for comfort.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott:
Originally Posted By CleverNickname:

A better message would be to send a dozen B52's over Yemen and just carpet bomb the fuckers.


Depending on the size of the bombs in question the B-52H can carry more or fewer bombs than a B-2 but more importantly with Iranian state backing the likelihood that the Houthis have some ADA capability threatening bombers is too high for comfort.

Ok send in a couple B2's first to take out the ADA.
Link Posted: 10/16/2024 11:40:23 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CleverNickname:

Ok send in a couple B2's first to take out the ADA.
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It can be hard to find.
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