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From the
   somewhat guilt filled comforts of Greece, I have been thinking about what I
   learned from the recent Cairo SHTF experience. I am not putting myself forth
   as an expert of any sort and, frankly, many or even most items on the list
   below might be flat out wrong....who the hell knows. We were in Cairo from
   Jan 25th until late Feb 3rd when the neighborhood gunfire became full-auto
   and regularly occurring. At that point, we decided that Friday prayers (the
   next day) might not yield a pleasant experience. We had no way of knowing
   that we had already seen the worst.
Lesson #1....the best
   weapon for SHTF is truly whatever F*&$ING firearm you can lay your hands
   on and it does not matter the slightest bit what it is! I had a borrowed
   three shot semi-auto Beretta 26" bbl trap grade shotgun. I LOVED IT. It was
   my baby and I truly miss it now!. That said, I would have given my left nut
   for my Yugo underfolder or SGL-21. Frankly, I am now of the opinion that if,
   in the moment, you are being AT ALL picky about firearms then by definition
   the shit has NOT truly hit the fan. One guy on our street only had a nice
   little S&W J-frame .22 and he seemed a lot more relaxed than the guys
   with baseball bats I can tell you that!





Lesson #2.....Good will with
   one's friends and neighbors has the power to greatly enhance or even make
   unnecessary ABSOLUTELY ANY prep you can make (including having money). Bad
   will with ones neighbors similarly has the ability to completely nullify any
   prep (again, including having money). I am and was the lucky beneficiary and
   supplier of the former. As an example, one night on the street a local young
   cop who lived in the neighborhood asked me "where did you get that shotgun".
   I winked and said, "I found it". He just smirked and said, "Oh...OK". End of
   conversation. That's what is achieved by six years of being the "Cool
   American" who takes the time to chat with everyone from street vendors,
   doormen, and neighborhood kids to villa owners and
   businessmen.





Lesson #3....Bugging out is really only an option if you
   are lucky enough to be psychic and see the shit BEFORE it truly hits the
   fan. The bug out plans you have will almost certainly physically be blocked
   when SHTF. Good luck getting to Alexandria after SHTF in Tahrir square or to
   Aswan when the government shuts down the rail network! Frankly, we almost
   realized we had those options before they were blocked off but by they might
   have been more dangerous than bugging in with our friends and neighbors and
   banding together to protect the neighborhood. Further, I did not want to be
   a "refugee" so bugging in was perfectly fine since we prepped wisely. That
   said, and in spite of the above, when you see an escape route, RUN (see
   Lesson #4 and #11)!





Lesson #4....Do NOT be too proud to become a
   "refugee" if you can manage it comfortably. There is a world of difference
   between being a penniless "refugee" and taking a "strategic vacation" (new
   term I just invented!) on a commercial flight with a fat wad of cash (see
   Lesson #13).





Lesson #5...People are stupid. There MAY (repeat...MAY)
   still be time to prep the very day and even the second or third day the shit
   is "kinda" hitting the fan (SKHTF! another new term!). Grocery stores MAY
   still be open and things MAY be as normal for a short time. Now is the time
   to stock up on little things you may need more of or on comfort items. I saw
   this happen in Cairo even the first days of the worst rioting. Stores were
   open even a couple blocks from Tahrir strangely enough....for a while. Day
   three of the revolution, when Tahrir looked like a legitimate war-zone, the
   Souq two blocks from the square was selling us vegetables and canned goods
   and, amazingly, was not all that busy! We cleaned them out and distributed
   surplus to those in our building who could not or would not go out (See
   Lesson #2)





Lesson #6....Murphy's law applies. Preps will fail or
   break or prove impractical when you least expect. For example, the sat phone
   I just replaced worked just fine for all of the last five years. I wanted to
   upgrade and bought the new model that arrived in Cairo a week before the
   riots when my wife returned from the US. The brand new com equipment that
   would have totally bailed us out when the govt cut cell and internet....you
   guessed it....had a bad battery shipped with it!! Moral of the story: Invest
   in MULTIPLE redundancies! I am now also buying a handheld HAM
   system.





Lesson #7....Marry well! Perhaps this should be Lesson #1. My
   wife was calm and collected for the 10 days we were in Cairo during SHTF.
   She was organizing things around the house and with neighbors and even
   making improvised weaponry (clubs) even better with the addition of
   protruding nails etc. She rocks! She also cooked for the "neighborhood
   watch" and is now absolutely LOVED by the people around us! She helped with
   Lesson #2 immensely because NO other wives in the neighborhood were bringing
   tea and food to the guys on the street.





Lesson #8....You don't have
   to "bug out" to MOVE and make things a great deal easier for yourself! Just
   because the shit is hitting the fan where you are does NOT mean it is
   hitting the fan even 10 miles away. This is not bugging out...just moving.
   When we were driving to the airport on day ten or eleven, I was amazed that
   a short 10 minute drive away there were no tanks or APCs and people were
   calm. The whole vibe was so different that it kinda made me suspect that
   something was wrong. SHTF had become "normal" for me to the point that
   "normal" now looked scary and suspicious. We even passed a wedding that was
   taking place where everyone looked totally calm. We didn't realize for 10
   days that all we really had to do was find a new apartment or take a nice
   hotel room 20 miles away from our current location. Lesson learned! Don't
   become married to your "role" in SHTF.





Lesson #9...When the players
   in a conflict become ill-defined, it's time to step aside. If you know who
   the bad guys are, you can play this game but when it becomes a war of all
   against all, it becomes imperative to stay out of the game where EVERYONE
   loses. The Feb 2 riots that took place the night before we left were a
   perfect example of this. It was no longer just looters we were worried
   about, it was EVERYONE. Buildings were being occupied in Tahrir presumably
   by both sides of the conflict and I didn't want to wait for this phenomenon
   to come 5 blocks south to us. If SHTF starts to look too much like civil
   war, it's "game over" and time to make a change.





Lesson
   #10...Stockpiling is 100% rational. Even if you wind up bugging out or SHTF
   is short enough to not use everything you have stashed, your foresight will
   help others and will contribute greatly to your ability to adhere to Lesson
   #2. Just because you are able to bug out does not mean others will have the
   same luxury and these people WILL need your help.





Lesson #11...People
   WILL sell you out. Be prepared for it and know that it might come from
   anywhere...."Friends", Relatives, or employers. Someone will almost
   assuredly ditch you or put you in a tight spot while covering their own ass.
   The toughest part of this lesson is coming to terms with the fact that at
   some point, it's totally justifiable and yes even forgivable. Understand
   that at some point your OWN family will be the priority and that you will be
   the one who is selling out people you know and likely care for. I know that
   this is not at all a comfortable thought, but it is realistic.





Lesson
   #12...Some people will surprise you. People from whom you might expect
   animosity, will sometimes provide you with the help you need and incur
   substantial risk or personal cost to do it. Just like you will at some point
   very likely be embodying Lesson #11, you will (or definitely F($**ING
   should) be embodying Lesson #12 as well.





Lesson #13....Diverisfy your
   financial position. Gold will not buy groceries (but see Lesson #14) and
   cash won't buy an emergency flight over the internet. Similarly, your big
   neighborhood Christian grocer will get freaked out over the religious
   implications of SHTF and close. Guess what, he is the only guy in a 10 mile
   radius who takes credit cards...so have cash! Further, diversify your
   currencies in international terms by holding foreign currency for the place
   you intend to bug out too (and maybe even one or two others since you never
   know where you might be going). From now on I will hold Egyptian Pounds,
   Dollars, Euros, and Jordanian Dinar....at a minimum.





Lesson
   #14...Gold....OWN IT! It may not work with the grocer you barely know as a
   medium of exchange but it damn sure makes great collateral eg. "OK...you
   keep this gold sovereign and I will buy it back from you for the 200
   Egyptian pounds I owe you as soon as the ATMs start working". It's great
   bribe material too, though I didn't have to resort to it, when you want to
   get your beloved dog on a "no-pets" flight.





Lesson
   #15....Silver....Keep some but only buy it in major quantity with your gold
   when things have calmed down and you know you wont be bugging out! Silver
   had taken a good dip about a week before SHTF and I was this close to buying
   a few kg bars the day or two before the protests started. I didn't and am
   VERY glad. Silver is of course bulky and heavy and I would not have needed
   those extra kgs when we were finally on the move ten or eleven days later.
   Silver is a great medium of exchange when things have settled down after
   SHTF but it is not a great prep UNLESS you keep it confined to maybe a
   single kg of junk silver or small rounds.





Lesson #16....Be flexible
   and creative. SHTF will be unique to the surroundings and people and cause
   thus necessitating quick thinking that is outside the box and the
   formulation of solutions to problems that may work today but not tomorrow.
   Do NOT become married to a situation, your role in it, or the solution to a
   problem that may not work for you tomorrow.





Lesson #17....Be
   intimidating when you think it will work. Develop a war face! Be loud and
   fearless and look like someone capable of anything...it minimizes
   negotiation and whining in other parties. Simultaneously, know when to fly
   under the radar and when to say "Katy bar the door!" The nature of SHTF
   changes over time and necessitates that YOU change who you are to a very
   substantial degree.





Lesson #18....Stock your liquor cabinet. Do so
   partially for barter and good will purposes, but also understand that when a
   curfew is imposed during SHTF, the impromptu "revolution party" will become
   common. I was teargassed on day 3 or 4 and scooped up six random study
   abroad journalism students who were literally trapped by police in my
   neighborhood. The police had blocked off all entrances and exits so these
   red-eyed kids could literally not get home. We all went back to my apartment
   where, over the next 6 hours or so, my wife, these kids, and I did some
   serious damage to a bottle of red label. On top of that, the realistic
   reason for stocking up is that after a few days of staying up all night
   enjoying what SHTF has to offer, you will have trouble sleeping and a wee
   dram never hurts.





Lesson #19...When SHTF is over, be prepared for a
   LOT of odd behavior on the part of people you know. There will be lots of
   unnecessary crap about "who did what" during SHTF and arguments about how we
   can avoid SHTF in the future or how we can rebuild or "unify" in the wake of
   SHTF. Everyone will think their ideas are the best and the very real
   conflict between people you know will push you and those around you back
   toward a SHTF situation to some degree. The moral of this story is, if you
   are a foreigner, keep your damned mouth shut. Even if you are a local, the
   arguments are just not worth it.





Lesson #20...You learned who your
   friends are during SHTF...now treat them that way! For example, I no longer
   visit my big neighborhood grocer who closed and locked sh!t up tighter than
   a drum for the FULL DURATION of SHTF. I do, however, now regularly frequent
   the tiny-a$$ little grocery store with the mediocre selection around the
   corner. Why? Because it is owned and operated by a 50 year old guy who was
   open every single day of SHTF and I saw him regularly at 2:00am guarding the
   front of his store (and others) armed with nothing more than a hippo-hide
   whip (sjambok). He was doing this when the very reliable rumor was that
   looters had stolen police vehicles, uniforms, and guns. I don't care that this guy doesn't have the shampoo
   my wife likes, I am buying my groceries from him!