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Quoted: If you cherry pick a time horizon to put things in the best possible light it isn't straw-manning it to point that out. Everyone wants to say "Hey I made 24% this year" but they ignore factoring in what they lost last year. Kind of like when someone goes to a casino and walks away with money in their pocket but doesn't count what they lost last time they gambled. Year over year the S&P is about the most idiot proof way to invest but the average investor can't and doesn't take advantage of the swings but instead just rides it out for the long haul and takes a more reasonable return. View Quote How was 2021? Pretty good right? What happens when you revise your 2-year avg into a 3-year avg? All of a sudden you're up about 7% per year for 3 years, instead of being even for 2. |
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Quoted: How was 2021? Pretty good right? What happens when you revise your 2-year avg into a 3-year avg? All of a sudden you're up about 7% per year for 3 years, instead of being even for 2. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: If you cherry pick a time horizon to put things in the best possible light it isn't straw-manning it to point that out. Everyone wants to say "Hey I made 24% this year" but they ignore factoring in what they lost last year. Kind of like when someone goes to a casino and walks away with money in their pocket but doesn't count what they lost last time they gambled. Year over year the S&P is about the most idiot proof way to invest but the average investor can't and doesn't take advantage of the swings but instead just rides it out for the long haul and takes a more reasonable return. How was 2021? Pretty good right? What happens when you revise your 2-year avg into a 3-year avg? All of a sudden you're up about 7% per year for 3 years, instead of being even for 2. I included a 10 year graph in my first post. My point was never to shit on the S&P but to evaluate it in a way that is useful to the vast majority of investors who use it for their retirement rather than a professional who goes in and out of the market. |
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Quoted: Facts are strange things. Something can be entirely true (i.e. the 2023 S&P returns) but when put in a larger context projects something which is far less accurate. You can say that was not the intent of the post to which I replied initially and that may be so as I can only read what I read and not read someone's mind but that was my take-away from it. View Quote Truth is inversely proportional to scope. N |
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Quoted: I waited until Bitcoin made an appearance before posting. I cashed out all other investments right before Thanksgiving and bought Bitcoin. I sold a bunch of stuff laying around my house doing nothing, including a solid gold pocketwatch, a laptop, iMac, and a high end bicycle, all into Bitcoin. I got a 5 figure insurance settlement in early November, everything went into Bitcoin. Also, I've been putting $1,000/mo from my normal paycheck into Bitcoin since before Haloween. Why? A bunch of things are going to happen in the near future, and the close-long term future IMO - Bitcoin ETFs will likely happen in the next few days or weeks. This will likely bring massive cash input that will last a long time. I DO NOT believe this has already been "baked into" the price, look at any news story from 2-3 weeks ago, they were all convinced the SEC was NOT going to approve the ETFs. (the rumor was wrong) - The "BTC halving" will likely happen in April, a supply reduction coupled with a demand increase ^see above. - the "normal" mania when it goes up quickly. And, something i don't see talked about anywhere. I think WHEN Bitcoin hits somewhere in the $400K range, a single Satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin, the smallest piece of a Bitcoin) will be worth $0.004, this puts the smallest unit of Bitcoin within striking distance of the dollar's smallest unit. When 1 Satoshi = 1 Penny, it's a new world. I think the world will function somehow with 2 Bitcoin wallets. The first wallet is for your savings or whatever, money that it may take the Bitcoin network a day or two to process; no fast access but completely secure (if you aren't an idiot). The second wallet will be your "liquid" Bitcoin (Satoshi wallet) that has already been processed by the network and is instantly available for day-to-day purchases. Most people will only have liquid Bitcoin wallets, the rich and people who buy now will need secure wallets. This might not happen soon but I believe 100% it is now inevitable. Sometime in the next 5 years BTC will be $1m and NEVER go back. View Quote I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. |
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Quoted: I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I waited until Bitcoin made an appearance before posting. I cashed out all other investments right before Thanksgiving and bought Bitcoin. I sold a bunch of stuff laying around my house doing nothing, including a solid gold pocketwatch, a laptop, iMac, and a high end bicycle, all into Bitcoin. I got a 5 figure insurance settlement in early November, everything went into Bitcoin. Also, I've been putting $1,000/mo from my normal paycheck into Bitcoin since before Haloween. Why? A bunch of things are going to happen in the near future, and the close-long term future IMO - Bitcoin ETFs will likely happen in the next few days or weeks. This will likely bring massive cash input that will last a long time. I DO NOT believe this has already been "baked into" the price, look at any news story from 2-3 weeks ago, they were all convinced the SEC was NOT going to approve the ETFs. (the rumor was wrong) - The "BTC halving" will likely happen in April, a supply reduction coupled with a demand increase ^see above. - the "normal" mania when it goes up quickly. And, something i don't see talked about anywhere. I think WHEN Bitcoin hits somewhere in the $400K range, a single Satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin, the smallest piece of a Bitcoin) will be worth $0.004, this puts the smallest unit of Bitcoin within striking distance of the dollar's smallest unit. When 1 Satoshi = 1 Penny, it's a new world. I think the world will function somehow with 2 Bitcoin wallets. The first wallet is for your savings or whatever, money that it may take the Bitcoin network a day or two to process; no fast access but completely secure (if you aren't an idiot). The second wallet will be your "liquid" Bitcoin (Satoshi wallet) that has already been processed by the network and is instantly available for day-to-day purchases. Most people will only have liquid Bitcoin wallets, the rich and people who buy now will need secure wallets. This might not happen soon but I believe 100% it is now inevitable. Sometime in the next 5 years BTC will be $1m and NEVER go back. I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. Damn, that's potentially a hefty sum if you're wrong. |
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Quoted: I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. View Quote If this wager happens you guys need to clarify the time of when the .1 is calculated I literally recommended a shit coin on page 4 ( it’s good advice and will outperform anything else suggested this thread) but even I think million dollar btc is a loooong time away |
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Quoted: If this wager happens you guys need to clarify the time of when the .1 is calculated I literally recommended a shit coin on page 4 ( it’s good advice and will outperform anything else suggested this thread) but even I think million dollar btc is a loooong time away View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. If this wager happens you guys need to clarify the time of when the .1 is calculated I literally recommended a shit coin on page 4 ( it’s good advice and will outperform anything else suggested this thread) but even I think million dollar btc is a loooong time away .1 BTC will always be .1 BTC. the amount of satoshis won't change, just the valuation in fed res notes. |
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Quoted: .1 BTC will always be .1 BTC. the amount of satoshis won't change, just the valuation in fed res notes. View Quote Attached File |
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Quoted: If this wager happens you guys need to clarify the time of when the .1 is calculated I literally recommended a shit coin on page 4 ( it’s good advice and will outperform anything else suggested this thread) but even I think million dollar btc is a loooong time away View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. If this wager happens you guys need to clarify the time of when the .1 is calculated I literally recommended a shit coin on page 4 ( it’s good advice and will outperform anything else suggested this thread) but even I think million dollar btc is a loooong time away $sunny |
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Quoted: .1 BTC will always be .1 BTC. the amount of satoshis won't change, just the valuation in fed res notes. View Quote +1 This confuses people. It is the same as betting a specific quantity of gold. Betting 2 3/8 oz of gold is today similar to the 0.1 Bitcoin wager above. All 3 will probably be different in 5 years, but the bets can be paid off with either gold or Bitcoin, no US$ need to be involved. |
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Quoted: Damn, that's potentially a hefty sum if you're wrong. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I waited until Bitcoin made an appearance before posting. I cashed out all other investments right before Thanksgiving and bought Bitcoin. I sold a bunch of stuff laying around my house doing nothing, including a solid gold pocketwatch, a laptop, iMac, and a high end bicycle, all into Bitcoin. I got a 5 figure insurance settlement in early November, everything went into Bitcoin. Also, I've been putting $1,000/mo from my normal paycheck into Bitcoin since before Haloween. Why? A bunch of things are going to happen in the near future, and the close-long term future IMO - Bitcoin ETFs will likely happen in the next few days or weeks. This will likely bring massive cash input that will last a long time. I DO NOT believe this has already been "baked into" the price, look at any news story from 2-3 weeks ago, they were all convinced the SEC was NOT going to approve the ETFs. (the rumor was wrong) - The "BTC halving" will likely happen in April, a supply reduction coupled with a demand increase ^see above. - the "normal" mania when it goes up quickly. And, something i don't see talked about anywhere. I think WHEN Bitcoin hits somewhere in the $400K range, a single Satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin, the smallest piece of a Bitcoin) will be worth $0.004, this puts the smallest unit of Bitcoin within striking distance of the dollar's smallest unit. When 1 Satoshi = 1 Penny, it's a new world. I think the world will function somehow with 2 Bitcoin wallets. The first wallet is for your savings or whatever, money that it may take the Bitcoin network a day or two to process; no fast access but completely secure (if you aren't an idiot). The second wallet will be your "liquid" Bitcoin (Satoshi wallet) that has already been processed by the network and is instantly available for day-to-day purchases. Most people will only have liquid Bitcoin wallets, the rich and people who buy now will need secure wallets. This might not happen soon but I believe 100% it is now inevitable. Sometime in the next 5 years BTC will be $1m and NEVER go back. I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. Damn, that's potentially a hefty sum if you're wrong. It's a fun way to separate the online confidence and the real confidence. I've lost 30 oz of silver on something that I missed a timeframe by a month, gained 3 oz betting on nothing happening, and wagered 100 ozt AG that the poster who was hyper confident we're gonna have civil war this year when trump doesn't get elected and he never came back to the thread. |
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Op - we had a decent down day. Did you put your orders in before close and did they get fulfilled/confirmed?
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Quoted: If the audience is "above average" shouldn't we discuss things that "above average" people do or should do? I don't understand the argument that financial discussions should be dumbed down for the "median" when the audience here is not representative of the general population. View Quote GD is Lake Wobegon. Everyone here is above average. |
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View Quote Umm. Still in bull, by a wide margin. |
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Quoted: I waited until Bitcoin made an appearance before posting. I cashed out all other investments right before Thanksgiving and bought Bitcoin. I sold a bunch of stuff laying around my house doing nothing, including a solid gold pocketwatch, a laptop, iMac, and a high end bicycle, all into Bitcoin. I got a 5 figure insurance settlement in early November, everything went into Bitcoin. Also, I've been putting $1,000/mo from my normal paycheck into Bitcoin since before Haloween. Why? A bunch of things are going to happen in the near future, and the close-long term future IMO - Bitcoin ETFs will likely happen in the next few days or weeks. This will likely bring massive cash input that will last a long time. I DO NOT believe this has already been "baked into" the price, look at any news story from 2-3 weeks ago, they were all convinced the SEC was NOT going to approve the ETFs. (the rumor was wrong) - The "BTC halving" will likely happen in April, a supply reduction coupled with a demand increase ^see above. - the "normal" mania when it goes up quickly. And, something i don't see talked about anywhere. I think WHEN Bitcoin hits somewhere in the $400K range, a single Satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin, the smallest piece of a Bitcoin) will be worth $0.004, this puts the smallest unit of Bitcoin within striking distance of the dollar's smallest unit. When 1 Satoshi = 1 Penny, it's a new world. I think the world will function somehow with 2 Bitcoin wallets. The first wallet is for your savings or whatever, money that it may take the Bitcoin network a day or two to process; no fast access but completely secure (if you aren't an idiot). The second wallet will be your "liquid" Bitcoin (Satoshi wallet) that has already been processed by the network and is instantly available for day-to-day purchases. Most people will only have liquid Bitcoin wallets, the rich and people who buy now will need secure wallets. This might not happen soon but I believe 100% it is now inevitable. Sometime in the next 5 years BTC will be $1m and NEVER go back. View Quote
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Quoted: Enjoy the ride.
View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I waited until Bitcoin made an appearance before posting. I cashed out all other investments right before Thanksgiving and bought Bitcoin. I sold a bunch of stuff laying around my house doing nothing, including a solid gold pocketwatch, a laptop, iMac, and a high end bicycle, all into Bitcoin. I got a 5 figure insurance settlement in early November, everything went into Bitcoin. Also, I've been putting $1,000/mo from my normal paycheck into Bitcoin since before Haloween. Why? A bunch of things are going to happen in the near future, and the close-long term future IMO - Bitcoin ETFs will likely happen in the next few days or weeks. This will likely bring massive cash input that will last a long time. I DO NOT believe this has already been "baked into" the price, look at any news story from 2-3 weeks ago, they were all convinced the SEC was NOT going to approve the ETFs. (the rumor was wrong) - The "BTC halving" will likely happen in April, a supply reduction coupled with a demand increase ^see above. - the "normal" mania when it goes up quickly. And, something i don't see talked about anywhere. I think WHEN Bitcoin hits somewhere in the $400K range, a single Satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin, the smallest piece of a Bitcoin) will be worth $0.004, this puts the smallest unit of Bitcoin within striking distance of the dollar's smallest unit. When 1 Satoshi = 1 Penny, it's a new world. I think the world will function somehow with 2 Bitcoin wallets. The first wallet is for your savings or whatever, money that it may take the Bitcoin network a day or two to process; no fast access but completely secure (if you aren't an idiot). The second wallet will be your "liquid" Bitcoin (Satoshi wallet) that has already been processed by the network and is instantly available for day-to-day purchases. Most people will only have liquid Bitcoin wallets, the rich and people who buy now will need secure wallets. This might not happen soon but I believe 100% it is now inevitable. Sometime in the next 5 years BTC will be $1m and NEVER go back.
Looks like I'll get a dollar of BTC after all. |
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Quoted: Almost 5 years to go, though. I think you will win the wager, but we will just have to wait and see. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Looks like I'll get a dollar of BTC after all. Almost 5 years to go, though. I think you will win the wager, but we will just have to wait and see. Cant win the wager if he's too scared to put his money where his mouth is. |
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Quoted: If this wager happens you guys need to clarify the time of when the .1 is calculated I literally recommended a shit coin on page 4 ( it’s good advice and will outperform anything else suggested this thread) but even I think million dollar btc is a loooong time away View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. If this wager happens you guys need to clarify the time of when the .1 is calculated I literally recommended a shit coin on page 4 ( it’s good advice and will outperform anything else suggested this thread) but even I think million dollar btc is a loooong time away The problem is that shit coin isn’t easily bought by the average person, I think that’s necessary for the next 100x |
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Quoted: I bet you 0.1 BTC that it doesn't go over $1 million per 1.0 BTC in the next 5 years. View Quote 5 years may actually be close. I'd almost be willing to take the bet if we said before the 6th halving which is more like 8 years. but then it's a lot easier for someone to bet .1 btc when they don't think it will be worth as much than for someone who thinks it will be worth a million. |
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Quoted: I don't think any coin will be life changing until my old, dumb ass dad ( i love him but being honest) can buy yuengling with it at the local store. View Quote you can get a coinbase debit card with a visa logo that will work pretty much everywhere. Sure you may need to transfer from btc to usdc but it's pretty simple. |
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The pros have all the suckers back in because FOMO. Now time to dog whistle each other as they short the market.
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Oh fuck, down a .5%....... run RUN!!!!!! SELL!!!!!! Doooooooooommmmmm.
lol. I love it. Gaining north of 20% in a fairly short amount of time in the scheme of things is somehow not a big deal...... But losing a hand full of tenths of a percent somehow it is..... Don't change GD...... lol. Some of y'all should go for a drive out and take a look at some of the construction projects that the magnificent seven and players in the IRA are doing stateside. Maybe that won't speak to you in a macro economic way, but at least you'll get to see a really big really huge ass ginormous hilariously large construction sites. Hopefully at least at one location....... Forget what the board says. Go and take a drive and tell me what you see. |
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Quoted: Oh fuck, down a .5%....... run RUN!!!!!! SELL!!!!!! Doooooooooommmmmm. lol. I love it. Gaining north of 20% in a fairly short amount of time in the scheme of things is somehow not a big deal...... But losing a hand full of tenths of a percent somehow it is..... Don't change GD...... lol. Some of y'all should go for a drive out and take a look at some of the construction projects that the magnificent seven and players in the IRA are doing stateside. Maybe that won't speak to you in a macro economic way, but at least you'll get to see a really big really huge ass ginormous hilariously large construction sites. Hopefully at least at one location....... Forget what the board says. Go and take a drive and tell me what you see. View Quote A roughly 20% up year, following a 20% Down year = Massive win to everyone! Road construction! Derp |
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Quoted: A roughly 20% up year, following a 20% Down year = Massive win to everyone! Road construction! Derp View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Oh fuck, down a .5%....... run RUN!!!!!! SELL!!!!!! Doooooooooommmmmm. lol. I love it. Gaining north of 20% in a fairly short amount of time in the scheme of things is somehow not a big deal...... But losing a hand full of tenths of a percent somehow it is..... Don't change GD...... lol. Some of y'all should go for a drive out and take a look at some of the construction projects that the magnificent seven and players in the IRA are doing stateside. Maybe that won't speak to you in a macro economic way, but at least you'll get to see a really big really huge ass ginormous hilariously large construction sites. Hopefully at least at one location....... Forget what the board says. Go and take a drive and tell me what you see. A roughly 20% up year, following a 20% Down year = Massive win to everyone! Road construction! Derp Too bad that's not what's happening tho...... How's 55% for the last 6 years for derp.... I guess I'll take some more of that derp then. My printer goes brrrttttt too! Attached File |
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Quoted: A roughly 20% up year, following a 20% Down year = Massive win to everyone! Road construction! Derp View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Oh fuck, down a .5%....... run RUN!!!!!! SELL!!!!!! Doooooooooommmmmm. lol. I love it. Gaining north of 20% in a fairly short amount of time in the scheme of things is somehow not a big deal...... But losing a hand full of tenths of a percent somehow it is..... Don't change GD...... lol. Some of y'all should go for a drive out and take a look at some of the construction projects that the magnificent seven and players in the IRA are doing stateside. Maybe that won't speak to you in a macro economic way, but at least you'll get to see a really big really huge ass ginormous hilariously large construction sites. Hopefully at least at one location....... Forget what the board says. Go and take a drive and tell me what you see. A roughly 20% up year, following a 20% Down year = Massive win to everyone! Road construction! Derp Math isn’t your strength is it? |
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Quoted: Yes, another investing thread…my apologies. I know that time in the market is the most important and that over time the S&P 500 always delivers. But what do you think is going to happen in the near term? Say a fellow has significant cash that can make or break a retirement and that this retirement is planned within about 10 years. Would you pour it into the market now knowing a significant correction from the all time high could blow it for you or do you jump in now, even at this high point, because Time IN the Market is more important than Timing? Or do you sit out for a while, maybe until after the election but be prepared to seize a dip? Help me ARFCOM, you are my only hope! View Quote Pigs get fat..... Hogs get slaughtered. |
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Op - did you put those orders in last week?
The old addage “the best to buy was yesterday, next best is today, worst is tomorrow” is so damn true. |
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Quoted: Op - did you put those orders in last week? The old addage “the best to buy was yesterday, next best is today, worst is tomorrow” is so damn true. View Quote I am wanting to buy a bunch more VTI but thinking it will dip into the 220's again before spring. Do you think this is gonna happen? I have the funds for this purchase parked in a MM account now at about 5%. |
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Quoted: I am wanting to buy a bunch more VTI but thinking it will dip into the 220's again before spring. Do you think this is gonna happen? I have the funds for this purchase parked in a MM account now at about 5%. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Op - did you put those orders in last week? The old addage “the best to buy was yesterday, next best is today, worst is tomorrow” is so damn true. I am wanting to buy a bunch more VTI but thinking it will dip into the 220's again before spring. Do you think this is gonna happen? I have the funds for this purchase parked in a MM account now at about 5%. Nobody has a crystal ball. MANY people have sat on the sidelines, waiting for a drop that never comes. Then they refuse to get back in when the market goes even higher, waiting for a major pullback. Many people sat like this for a decade, and missed out on the longest bull market run in history. It could pull back, it might not. It might drop to 50% of the current level. Or it might do that after doubling first. |
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Quoted: I am wanting to buy a bunch more VTI but thinking it will dip into the 220's again before spring. Do you think this is gonna happen? I have the funds for this purchase parked in a MM account now at about 5%. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Op - did you put those orders in last week? The old addage “the best to buy was yesterday, next best is today, worst is tomorrow” is so damn true. I am wanting to buy a bunch more VTI but thinking it will dip into the 220's again before spring. Do you think this is gonna happen? I have the funds for this purchase parked in a MM account now at about 5%. No clue. I just want my 10% compounding by always buying. I’m boring turtle. Cash is trash. By very definition it’s a losing asset. |
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Quoted: No clue. I just want my 10% compounding by always buying. I’m boring turtle. Cash is trash. By very definition it’s a losing asset. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Op - did you put those orders in last week? The old addage “the best to buy was yesterday, next best is today, worst is tomorrow” is so damn true. I am wanting to buy a bunch more VTI but thinking it will dip into the 220's again before spring. Do you think this is gonna happen? I have the funds for this purchase parked in a MM account now at about 5%. No clue. I just want my 10% compounding by always buying. I’m boring turtle. Cash is trash. By very definition it’s a losing asset. It's at close to the 52-week high, 236.39 now, I think I'll continue to wait a bit. I bought a bunch at 203.12 at the end of October. |
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Pushing highs again. Could have made 1.6% in a week. Where's OP?
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So here we are. New all time highs. This is why you can’t time it or predict the future.
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Quoted: you can get a coinbase debit card with a visa logo that will work pretty much everywhere. Sure you may need to transfer from btc to usdc but it's pretty simple. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I don't think any coin will be life changing until my old, dumb ass dad ( i love him but being honest) can buy yuengling with it at the local store. you can get a coinbase debit card with a visa logo that will work pretty much everywhere. Sure you may need to transfer from btc to usdc but it's pretty simple. Incur capital gains tax to buy a beer? |
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Quoted: its beautiful. I just showed my wife the money she made today and she was floored. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: So here we are. New all time highs. This is why you can’t time it or predict the future. its beautiful. I just showed my wife the money she made today and she was floored. When your shit starts producing income more than if you worked you have to ask yourself… Why am I working? |
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