Many Chinese citizens don't trust the RenMinBi/Yuan and have fled to Bitcoin.  The Chinese government and the People's Bank of China disapprove of it of course.

65% of BitCoin production is reportedly now done in China.  It's crypto, it's secretive, and it's an underworld investment medium; so records on all of that are very spotty; so its tough to be sure.  But that's what I read. And why not, that makes sense to me.  If I were China, I'd be all over it. And now every bus driver gives crypto-investment advise - on a system few understand.  

That's the universal tell, to run like Hell.

It's not a currency, it's way too volatile for that, and as many people take is as actual transaction currency as gas stations have CNG pumps.  It's an investment medium on a 1929 style cycle up.  And China is making more than anyone.  So... kinda yea.

Pretty much.  If you have marketable skills and will likely keep employed, than this was your window to buy your home - and buy high.  2.5% mortgage rates with a double-digit inflation just around the corner; and your new home owners are going to win big.  Double so since Congress is almost certainly going to reverse the mortgage and property tax write-off cap.  Only problem now is the prices have gotten a bit crazy.

Also, while normally sound investment to accelerate payoff. If you are on the second half of paying off your loan - stop.  Just pay minimum and ride; you win, banks loose.

So...another unannounced reason for the fence and troops at the capitol?...they know what's coming and believe the peasants will be more irate during the second capitol attack?

I guess I should just cash in my 401K and say fuck it. Hookers and blow!

Back in the early days of bitcoin, the Chicoms would let a rumor fly that the party would ban ownership of it, prices would tank, and the Chinese government would buy up BTC for pennies on the dollar. Then put out a statement saying no bans were going to happen. This would happen almost monthly. In fact, I used to trade on it.

Holy crap, here we go again.  “Get the biggest mortgage you can!?!”  I seem to remember hearing that, not many years ago.  What makes you guys think the fed/banks will let the US gov distribute wheelbarrows full of cash to all the proles to pay off their debt with?  The debt holders will not be left holding the bag.

If banks get a whiff of hyperinflation, wouldn't they just call mortgages due?  And if you couldn't pay immediately, they would foreclose as fast as possible so they'd get the property.

Ok you guys have me sufficiently freaked out about the impending end of the world.
But I'm already the poors so I don't know if I have the least to lose or the most to worry about.

Are we talking "start a garden and stockpile food" bad or "eating my neighbors for fun and profit" bad?

Banks won’t call mortgages but will stop writing them, buyers will stop buying if they can’t get financing or financing becomes more difficult, and housing will crash.  

Banks can't just do that.  


So long as you meet your contractual obligation of paying your agreed to mortgage Bill every month, there is nothing they can do.  All the movies about the big bad banks foreclosing on good people's homes, are banks that stopped getting paid - and stopped getting paid for a while, so are forced to go for the collateral to try and be made whole; from the people they gave 6-figures to, who stopped paying it back.

Garden and stockpile.  Food & shelter first (3 B's = beans, boolits and then bullion for what you don't spend on the first two Bs).

Michael has lost 4 billion shorting Tesla. Great guy and a genius but not always correct.

But to what end?  How is my life affected?  Are Chinese troops going to be crawling through the woods here?

Pffft.. Doomer.

The United States is invincible, stocks only go up, and central planning actually works!

Not at all.

Capitalism didn’t protect itself from an ideology.

Our dear leaders could pass a law that pins debts to inflation, or something similar. "We can't let the banks fail."

Or force a new currency and revalue/reinstate your debts in the new currency.

It's happened before.

Though I think it is unlikely, unless we hit real-deal exponential hyperinflation.

I think most likely it will work out well for people with lots of debt who are able to keep their income in pace with increased inflation.

Imagine an ocean with a bunch of islands near each other. One well established island called America has a bunch of factories, farms and cool shit, and the rest of the islands have some food and beautiful beaches, but not much else. Everyone tries to get America's currency because you can actually buy things with it like food, cars, clothing, etc, or you can invest it in the American govt and earn interest which you can use to buy things in the future from America. You can even use the American dollars to trade with other islands because everyone knows you can always buy cool stuff from America. Slowly but surely, the rest of the islands start developing more and more trying to earn more dollars from America because they want to buy things from America. Eventually a lot of the other islands start building up factories and are becoming very proficient at making products and improving their infrastructure. They keep selling their products to America and amongst themselves because they still want more and more dollars.

Eventually Americans say amongst themselves "Hey, why don't we just start working less and just print more money. The other Islands want our money and we can use it to buy more things from them." Slowly Americans start producing less and less relative to all the other countries and get to enjoy more leisure and consume more. Over the course of many years it eventually gets to the point where Americans don't really produce much at all compared to the rest of the islands. It gets to the point where your cargo ships are piling up at American ports unloading goods, but there's a shortage of containers because the Americans have very little to export.


Eventually some of the other islands start to wonder why they're working so hard to make things that they can send off to America, when they don't get hardly anything in return. It used to be you could buy a bunch of cool shit in America, but now they don't really make that much anymore. Also, their government doesn't pay hardly any interest on the bonds. Americans are buying a shitload of things from us, but they don't add hardly anything to the pot. All the islands outside of America just use dollars to buy things from each other, not America. If we used something other than America's currency for trade, we could cut out the middleman who takes a cut of the profits without adding any value to the exchange, and we'd all be able to buy more things from America as their currency devalues relative to whatever the new system is.


As you are discussing this with business leaders from other islands, some lazy, fatass hoodrat from America rolls up to your meeting and says "Yall are a bunch of fucking morons. You need my dollars. The fuck would you do without my dollars? You NEED my money! He then proceeds to whip out his printer and print off another $200. "I'll take some more of those Jordan's. Thanks bitch."

Yep.

Did the government help bail out mortgage holders during the ~07ish crash? Nyope. Bailed out the mortgage lenders instead.

I saw a stat that said at the time that the .gov could have paid off 85-90% of all mortgages with the cost of those bailouts and chose not to.

(For the record: I disagreed with all of the cash flying about, I’m just saying if the money was going to be spent, it could have been spend on the people paying their taxes and mortgages, who would (I would have an am confident I am not alone) would have refinanced and pulled money out to improve my house further.)

What he says is 100% true.  The real question is, “when?”

I figure that we have between 3-10 years.

Same as always - money and power, the land and the control.

Burry is redpilled AF. He tweeted some anti-mask or anti lock down stuff months ago and got put in twitter jail. He's been against woke cancel culture bs as well.
Also watch some Luke Gromen stuff. He's touched on Triffen's dilemna for a long long time.

When you have hard assets people who were holding onto cash want. Then you pay off your mortgage with a case of JD.

People who took out mortgages in the sixties at 3% and 6% were making 9-10% on their savings in the seventies while inflation ripped. You were way ahead to pay the least on your house and put the most in the bank.

Meh I still have a paid off house with what cost me $500 during the Trump salad days.

No but they'll own native war lords that will make your life a living hell.

Fascinating stuff and of course a bit terrifying too. Simple question:

What hard assets specifically????

Stay away from Crypto currency. It's an unregulated market where the biggest dog always wins. In crypto, the big dog is China. They will ALWAYS take your money.

The deep state who stole the election are working hard to weaken the dollar and force the US into the world economy. Work HARD to get democrats out of every office in the country.

Get involved in local politics. Not tomorrow, today. Become a Precinct Chair. It's not hard or time consuming. sign up to be a Volunteer Deputy Registrar so you can register new voters. If you're not doing something, you ARE the problem.

and do what with it?

As a mortgage LO, I'm genuinely concerned for my future to earn an income in the coming months to two years.

At least people finally are starting to realize that being the world reserve currency is actually a bad thing.

Everyone in this thread should read Michael Pettis's books The Great Rebalancing and Trade Wars are Class Wars.

I'm really simplifying but I'll list three stages, which occur in order:

1. Low interest rates, mass money creation leading to inflation of consumer goods, stagnant wages.  We're here, and these conditions are generally good for home prices since consumers' pain from inflation isn't that noticeable yet.

2. Somewhat higher interest rates, mass money creation leading to inflation of consumer goods, stagnant wages. Real estate transactions start to slow, and prices drop.  All of a sudden people are underwater on their mortgages and still waiting for the National Guard to deliver the wheelbarrows full of USD.  Hard assets can pay bills, temporarily.  "Government aid" goes to the largest corporations and blue states.  

3. High interest rates, mass money creation means the monthly grocery bill is larger than the mortgage payment-and for a lot of people that mortgage payment was already pretty big since Americans love being house poor.  The low mortgage rate that's locked in is small consolation.  Wheelbarrows full of USD haven't shown up yet, and wages are still low since the employers are also just trying to survive.  

As things progress, paying off the house is still possible but a paid off mortgage won't be a panacea.

If only us plebes mattered to the fed beyond being a voting battery.

Plenty of folks would have stimulated the shit out of the economy if uncle would have paid off their mortgage...

Looking at Tesla's assets vs valuation I would say he may have been correct but the market valuation doesn't care. He ran into the same thing when banks would not value his credit default swaps at what should have been market rate given the reality of the housing market.

This.  Folks we've been through this over and over again for the last several centuries. Whenever there is a system of OMG look at this WINDFALL money as a plebiun I too keep making; while not knowing shit-about-shit, and it just keeps going up Up UP UPPPP,  YOU CAN'T LOSE!  The one funding that, is you - the plebian.  And you're going to lose.  It doesn't matter what the science is.  If I try hard enough, I can convince people the Earth is really still flat (and that is actually working).  It's a financial system few people understand. It's unregulated.  It's in the shadows. And China is one of the major players propping it up.  If you have already made your money back, and are prepared for the worst case of it collapsing - then awesome; see if you can time this to coincide with what the major players are doing.  Well... actually, a little faster; because when there is heavy transaction in BitCoin (like... when it's collapsing), the intense processing demands of the system apparently get prioritized to the major players, not the plebians.  I remember last cycle seeing all the posts of bitCOIN holders frustrated at the extensive dealys their transactions were encountering; while watching their valuations plumit while they were wating.  


Buy low, sell high.  Do you feel bitCoin is on the low, or on the high right now?

Standing by for the 100% hit rate of heavy bit-coin holders who are financially motivated to keep its valuation high: with mockery and sour-grapes accusation musings; at the beware of being 1929'd warning here.

The rigged games we plebians get to play in, are 401K's, which are rigged to make the wealthy brokerage firms wealthier, but we get wealthier too, due to the bought congress tax-sheltering it.  Mortgages (same thing; though the real win-mechanism for the bank there, is the fact nobody keeps a house for 30 years, so when they sell it in 6 years, the bank got a pile of interest payment for 6 years, and almost all their principle paid back too, since almost none of that got paid down in the 6 years. Plus all the finance/closing/PMI/FU fees, of course).   That's about it.  The rest of the systems are rigged so they win bigly, and you sometimes get to win too if you're lucky and smart.  Not as much as they won, but some.  The GameStop thing is a great example - that was brokers vs brokers - just so you know.  The big winners, were other brokers leading the plebians into thinking they were winning too. Some did.  And some bought soon-to-be collapsing Game-Stop stock for $200 a share, to fund those big-dog winners.

As to Tesla miss;... well, the biggest problem with intensly logical supra-genious' is not understanding how the masses work and think as well as they think they do.  Which brings me back to bitcoin.  Crypto is never going to collapse to zero and go away, despite my ramblings above.  It is, always has been, and always will be, the underworld currency.  That's not going to change.  So yes, it's current valuation is stupid high, due to manupulations of the big-players; compounded by the reality that most American investment money knows this ship can't keep sailing like it is, and is desparate for safe-harbor.  So if you bought in before whatever its reset value is going to be, you are still going to win.  And if you bought in early, you are absolutly going to still win no matter what.  Of that, is absolutely true. And if I had chance to buy in at $500 a unit all over again, I would in a heartbeat.   But if you are thinking about it today.... well.. don't is my advise.  Because if you do; you're the one paying for the champagne right now.


And yes, this is relevant to the OP, because this is one of the mechanisms China is doing to win.  Frankly, the US used to be the great manipulator, and adjust the world to assure America wins.  That stopped a few decades ago.

About 14 years ago, I watched a guy on YouTube talk about fiat currency, how it would ultimately fail and our system would collapse.  It spurred me to read as much as I could about our economy.  What I learned terrified me.
When that man didn't win the Presidency, I realized people don't know/care enough and I was convinced it was only a matter of time before we collapsed and starting preparing.

That brought me to this site because I needed to learn about AR's and shooting.
When the housing market collapsed, I was sure we were on the way down.  I stopped putting money into my retirement.
I spent gobs of money on guns and ammo and training.

In 2015 I started investing into my retirement again after realizing 'this isn't the end'.  I lost out on 6 or 7 years of huge growth, cheap investments and most importantly, time.

I've seen this story before and I don't buy it anymore.  It's not gonna collapse.

That's not how this works. The terms of the mortgage must be broken before the bank forecloses.

Besides, banks won't kick half of Americans out of their homes when there are no buyers to purchase the homes they just foreclosed on. Believe it or not, banks hate owning houses. Foreclosure is something they do to stop the bleeding, but they still lose money.

I could see the gov't granting some emergency powers and changing the currency overnight, but you're talking about end of the world as we know it stuff right there. Killdozers everywhere...

Muammar Gaddafi  thought he was going to open up an oil exchange using gold instead of US dollars.

And we saw what happened there.

Before him, Saddam Hussein tried to open an oil bourse in something else besides the US dollar.

We saw what happened there too.

Sigh....

soon it'll take a wheel barrel full of terabit thumb drives worth of bitcoin wallets to buy a loaf of bread

40% of the Bitcoin hashing is done by the CCP.

Does your mortgage allow the bank to do that?

Didn't he tell me to buy water about a decade ago?

Where did that get me?

@4thbreak

From the zero hedge link a couple posts above yours.

Attached File

I'll believe that when I see it.

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Hadn't thought of this angle but it makes perfect sense.  Some irony that all the fuck fiat currency I'm a rebel types are really just lining China's pockets.  China would be very interested in a trackable blockchain currency.

So basically buy real estate and commodities. Hmm.

Fair point.  What will happen is; unlike you, the banks own Congress; so they'll just get another massive bailout of course.  

That's the beauty of being the banks.  In a win/lose scenario; they write the rules so that usually they win.  And in the rare case where they all lose, they just get massive bailouts and bonuses from that then too.  Pretty good gig.

But, all the same; in a setting where you could have a very nice tangebile asset that you realize the benefit of living in and enjoying; at stupid low interest rate.  You either win by having a great house at a great interest rate, or you really win, by having a great hourse at a great interest rate, while the national interest rate becomes runaway - and way higher than what you are paying.