Posted: 4/29/2013 4:34:43 PM EDT
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I was thinking today and drew an interesting parallel, and it scared the crap out of me.
In 1910-1914 nationalistic views were explosive in the Baltic States, which were controlled by the Austria-Hungary Empire at the time. You had Slovak, Hungarian, Serbian, Croatian, German, and many more different cultures that all wanted to become their own nations. The Russians backed the Slovaks (whom they viewed as Russian), and had an alliance with France. Germany had an alliance with Austria-Hungary. Belgium had an alliance with Great Britain. Each of the world leaders during that period [1912-1914] (including the United States) was expanding territories globally for resources. Each country was becoming bolder, and less tolerant in the dealings with other nations. As you can imagine, it was a powder keg that needed to be lit, one event to set it off. The assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand in Serbia was that spark and set off a war of the like the world had never seen before. Fast forward to today. In the Middle East, ethnic groups are becoming more nationalistic and rebelling and trying to set up their own governments, much like the Balkan states in 1914. They are being supported by Iran, Russia, and possibly China (though I cannot prove it). Meanwhile in Europe, the main currency is collapsing, and many of the European nations are growing increasingly intolerant of each other. In the United States, the populace is so polarized that nothing seems to be getting accomplished and the nation has been plagued by indecisive leadership for years now. The dollar is losing value, and the world economy is in a bad recession. If you look at the Balkan states during the first decade of the 20th century, and compare it to the Middle East now, the similarities are eerie. The next ten years are going to be scary; it will only take one event to light the fuse. I only hope that world leaders will be savvy enough to use diplomacy to get us out of it. |
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is this a 24/365 thread or wow ... intellectual thinking in GD similar in some respects ... the world is a bit more stable now things could change tho That's why I showed up.  I wasn't thinking of fire and mayhem today.  Japan and China could settle down. I'm more worried about the "Arab Spring" countries joining forces. And the f'n retard FSA here. |
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I was thinking today and drew an interesting parallel, and it scared the crap out of me. In 1910-1914 nationalistic views were explosive in the Baltic States, which were controlled by the Austria-Hungary Empire at the time. You had Slovak, Hungarian, Serbian, Croatian, German, and many more different cultures that all wanted to become their own nations. The Russians backed the Slovaks (whom they viewed as Russian), and had an alliance with France. Germany had an alliance with Austria-Hungary. Belgium had an alliance with Great Britain. Each of the world leaders during that period [1912-1914] (including the United States) was expanding territories globally for resources. Each country was becoming bolder, and less tolerant in the dealings with other nations. As you can imagine, it was a powder keg that needed to be lit, one event to set it off. The assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand in Serbia was that spark and set off a war of the like the world had never seen before. Fast forward to today. In the Middle East, ethnic groups are becoming more nationalistic and rebelling and trying to set up their own governments, much like the Balkan states in 1914. They are being supported by Iran, Russia, and possibly China (though I cannot prove it). Meanwhile in Europe, the main currency is collapsing, and many of the European nations are growing increasingly intolerant of each other. In the United States, the populace is so polarized that nothing seems to be getting accomplished and the nation has been plagued by indecisive leadership for years now. The dollar is losing value, and the world economy is in a bad recession. If you look at the Balkan states during the first decade of the 20th century, and compare it to the Middle East now, the similarities are eerie. The next ten years are going to be scary; it will only take one event to light the fuse. I only hope that world leaders will be savvy enough to use diplomacy to get us out of it. You're more optimistic that me ....... Y |
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is this a 24/365 thread or wow ... intellectual thinking in GD similar in some respects ... the world is a bit more stable now things could change tho That's why I showed up. I wasn't thinking of fire and mayhem today. Japan and China could settle down. I'm more worried about the "Arab Spring" countries joining forces. And the f'n retard FSA here. The only worry about China that I have is their economy, I have a strange feeling that it will implode in the near future. What worries me the most is alliances between new Arab states, and other nations whom most might consider hostile. |
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Geez, who really thinks like you do here?
The thing is though, I have studied that era, not in great depth, but some. I think what the difference is, is that the middle east in part, is driven by their particular brand of religion. and hatred today, and that did not exist prior to WW1 in central Europe. At the time, Europeans were trying to get out, my relatives fled in 1905 and came to the USA looking for a better place than Austria/Hungry, as they figured times were going to get bad eventually, as it was basically two countries, Austria and Hungary being forced to bow to the Austrian government, they even kept separate languages and armies, and this didn't include the Slav's, and Slovenians, and others all lumped into one country. Then, the execution that culminated in the start of WW1 with sides fleeing to one ally or the other. And again, that's not something I see in the middle east, more of a unification of hatred against the USA and Israel, and to some degree, non muslim Europe. And other than oil, they really have no natural resources of their own, and without reliable oil revenue, the region would shut down in no time. And for the most part, each country in the middle east, doesn't have much of a standing army, its more loosely based, rebel militia. Let alone, no navies, no large amounts of artillery, military vehicles etc. While it may be constant war, they just aren't capable of taking the war far past their own neighbors. If we pulled out, and left them alone, they would devolve back into warlords, and gangs, as you see happening, with petty dictators rigging the vote to be continuously re-elected, and stealing the oil revenue. Not to mention you have Iran, the only major noisemaker, facing a future of dwindling reserves of oil, and with that so will the aid and weapons dwindle. |
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Further, as their oil dwindles, we are swimming in natural gas.
Yes, a war would mean ten dollar a gallon gas, and a huge leap to energy independence using domestic reserves, which in the long run, may be a very good thing, as we could afford to let them alone, forever, and return back to savagery. As for China, they too have no real reserves, other than coal, or people, they are taking great strides to go nuclear, but, that only goes so far, and eventually they will be hamstrung by a basically communist economy, that doesn't have the real reserves to maintain either a war economy, or, a business based one. I figure they be going into neighboring countries looking for water, and fuel, where they can find it, before they will be sending ships and planes to attack the US. |
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I was thinking today and drew an interesting parallel, and it scared the crap out of me. In 1910-1914 nationalistic views were explosive in the Baltic States, which were controlled by the Austria-Hungary Empire at the time. You had Slovak, Hungarian, Serbian, Croatian, German, and many more different cultures that all wanted to become their own nations. The Russians backed the Slovaks (whom they viewed as Russian), and had an alliance with France. Germany had an alliance with Austria-Hungary. Belgium had an alliance with Great Britain. Each of the world leaders during that period [1912-1914] (including the United States) was expanding territories globally for resources. Each country was becoming bolder, and less tolerant in the dealings with other nations. As you can imagine, it was a powder keg that needed to be lit, one event to set it off. The assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand in Serbia was that spark and set off a war of the like the world had never seen before. Fast forward to today. In the Middle East, ethnic groups are becoming more nationalistic and rebelling and trying to set up their own governments, much like the Balkan states in 1914. They are being supported by Iran, Russia, and possibly China (though I cannot prove it). Meanwhile in Europe, the main currency is collapsing, and many of the European nations are growing increasingly intolerant of each other. In the United States, the populace is so polarized that nothing seems to be getting accomplished and the nation has been plagued by indecisive leadership for years now. The dollar is losing value, and the world economy is in a bad recession. If you look at the Balkan states during the first decade of the 20th century, and compare it to the Middle East now, the similarities are eerie. The next ten years are going to be scary; it will only take one event to light the fuse. I only hope that world leaders will be savvy enough to use diplomacy to get us out of it. You're more optimistic that me ....... Y Indeed. That bunch of miscreants in Washington at this time are only fanning the flames. |
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Further, as their oil dwindles, we are swimming in natural gas. Yes, a war would mean ten dollar a gallon gas, and a huge leap to energy independence using domestic reserves, which in the long run, may be a very good thing, as we could afford to let them alone, forever, and return back to savagery. As for China, they too have no real reserves, other than coal, or people, they are taking great strides to go nuclear, but, that only goes so far, and eventually they will be hamstrung by a basically communist economy, that doesn't have the real reserves to maintain either a war economy, or, a business based one. I figure they be going into neighboring countries looking for water, and fuel, where they can find it, before they will be sending ships and planes to attack the US. China went nuclear decades ago. And. I see what you meant now. They have 16 nuclear power reactors and 26 under construction. |
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is this a 24/365 thread or wow ... intellectual thinking in GD similar in some respects ... the world is a bit more stable now things could change tho That's why I showed up. I wasn't thinking of fire and mayhem today. Japan and China could settle down. I'm more worried about the "Arab Spring" countries joining forces. And the f'n retard FSA here. They are gaining strength every day. And 0bama appears to be helping them. 
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