Posted: 5/5/2013 12:43:27 PM EDT
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Hit the Ft. Worth Gunshow on Saturday, just to pass the morning and let it warm up a bit before we hit the range.
Some observations: Most large dealers have inflated prices on handguns a bit, 5-10% over what I saw last year... but then this could just be annual price increases. There was lots of handgun inventory, except really hot high-demand models. There was lots of AR15 rifle inventory, and most of the prices weren't too crazy. Several sub-$1000 AR's to choose from. Stripped lowers ran a WIDE range. Cheapest was a guy selling a bunch of forged lowers for $169. Saw some billets for $250. Then you still had the jackwagons trying to get $350 for a stripped, or $550 for a complete lower. They weren't selling shit. The place was FULL of people arriving to SELL their personal rifles. The line to get in and check weapons USED to be really short.... we used to duck into that line and then play dumb and get in quicker in years past. This time the weapons check line was easily 5 times as long as the no-firearms line. Tone of people bringing in old post-ban (1994-2004) configuration rifles and carbines, and asking $2000 for them. They didn't get the message that they are late to the party. Everyone I saw that brought in a weapon still was carrying it around when I left. Just about ALL the small time dealers with a singe table were selling WalMart ammo. Several boxes of the Federal 100 round value packs of 9mm and .40, and the 20 and 100 round boxes of Federal American Eagle or Independence or Tula ammo, marked up about 5 times what they paid for it last week at WalMart. Almost everywhere you looked, there was a table with a 550 round brick of Federal bulk from Walmart - with a $120 price on it. Yes, they were asking $120 for a brick of .22. Several ammo dealers had decent inventory, but nothing like years past. 55gr M193 ranged from $650 to $900 per case. Bastards were throwing lines out like "better get it while you can" or "its only going up in price" and I'd just say nothanks, or point out the guy across the aisle from them selling it for way less, and that if I walk a few feet "the price must be coming down".  Then, you find some really nice Fiocchi loaded with 50gr VMAX for less than they are asking for Fed XM193BK loose stuff.
Some dealers had smoking prices, like $279 for a Ruger SR-22 and they were throwing in a free box of .22LR ammo with any .22 sold. Most dealers were selling the S&W 15-22ifles for $499 (less than Cabelas) but there was one who was only asking the original price of $399 which was nice to see. Pretty much all the small time dealers were still out of touch... they were the worst prices ever... even when a big table was set up right next to them selling the same shit for half of what they were asking. There was more Chinese airsoft and flashlight and accessory crap than I'd ever seen. The show was probably 25% that stuff. I hate that crap.... cant stand it when they even talk to me as I pass by. Place was PACKED... but seemed like a lot of window shopping, and not much money changing hands in either direction. Overall.... the trend is inventory is up, prices are coming down. For ammo.... still bleak. I'm guessing gonna be that way for another year or more. |
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Overall.... the trend is inventory is up, prices are coming down. For ammo.... still bleak. I'm guessing gonna be that way for another year or more. I wonder if in 18 months a ton of ammo will be available on the second-hand market when 90% of these guys go 'I really don't need 10k rounds of ammo laying around the house...'. Kinda like we see with some of the used but barely shot ARs.... 4073 |
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Overall.... the trend is inventory is up, prices are coming down. For ammo.... still bleak. I'm guessing gonna be that way for another year or more. I wonder if in 18 months a ton of ammo will be available on the second-hand market when 90% of these guys go 'I really don't need 10k rounds of ammo laying around the house...'. Kinda like we see with some of the used but barely shot ARs.... 4073 Personally, I do not see that happening. |
That mirrors what I heard from a friend who went yesterday. I stayed home and brewed beer.  Quoted: I wonder if in 18 months a ton of ammo will be available on the second-hand market when 90% of these guys go 'I really don't need 10k rounds of ammo laying around the house...'. Kinda like we see with some of the used but barely shot ARs.... 4073 I wouldn't count on it. There may be a few guys who get into a tight spot and sell a couple cases to a friend at reasonable prices, but there are lots of folks not buying anything today, just sitting back thinking, "If XM193 falls under $400 shipped, I'm buying a pallet!" Then of course there is the chance of import bans, etc. |
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Oh, and LOTS of coin dealers selling bullion.... or more than I have noticed before. Everyone was trying to sell this new bullion coin - made of 100% pure copper. It was weird....
Silver Eagles were all $32 per coin. With spot right at $24, that's $8 over spot. Online - they are about the same.... |
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Did you see any 9mm SW Shields? Yes, I did see one. Most dealers were sold out but one dealer had them. A couple dealers had them in .40. One had it in 9mm. The price was insane, like $699 or something like that. I was looking for a Kahr arms CM9, and only one dealer had it, and it was a fair price given demand, $439 or so. Everyone else was sold out. Prices on Glocks were high... most over $530. |
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Oh, and LOTS of coin dealers selling bullion.... or more than I have noticed before. Everyone was trying to sell this new bullion coin - made of 100% pure copper. It was weird.... Silver Eagles were all $32 per coin. With spot right at $24, that's $8 over spot. Online - they are about the same.... Had an ARFCOMmer give me a copper round with a gladsen snake on it, 
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Was the overpriced ammo selling? Back in March, the PMC 223 was priced at $700 a case. He sold a few cases, but loaded up most of it for the trip home. I wasn't there on sunday to see how much they would have left.... but I didn't see any buyers when I was chatting with them. Just other people with dropped jaws and bugged eyes looking at price tags. |
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Oh, and LOTS of coin dealers selling bullion.... or more than I have noticed before. Everyone was trying to sell this new bullion coin - made of 100% pure copper. It was weird.... Silver Eagles were all $32 per coin. With spot right at $24, that's $8 over spot. Online - they are about the same.... I don't understand that either. I'm guessing most of the dealers bought these coins when the spot price was around $28-$30 and they are still trying to maintain their profit. I want to buy some Eagles but I'm not paying $8 over spot. |
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Oh, and LOTS of coin dealers selling bullion.... or more than I have noticed before. Everyone was trying to sell this new bullion coin - made of 100% pure copper. It was weird.... Silver Eagles were all $32 per coin. With spot right at $24, that's $8 over spot. Online - they are about the same.... I don't understand that either. I'm guessing most of the dealers bought these coins when the spot price was around $28-$30 and they are still trying to maintain their profit. I want to buy some Eagles but I'm not paying $8 over spot. I guess you missed my point - the budget ONLINE dealers are charging $8 over spot right now as well - this is the going rate for physical metal. So asking $8 over spot at the show is "market price". The cheapest price over spot I have found is around $5 (for eagles) but this requires a minimum 500 coin purchase. |
| The comments about the crazy ammo prices puts me to mind of a ad I seen in my local Armslist, A guy has 600rds of Federal 40 cal ball ammo and wants to trade it towards a high end 1911, He mentioned most of the custom mfg as his targets, the way the ad was worded he didn't sound like he was going to be coming off much cash for your Les Bauer, just 600rds of Federal and some token cash, I had to laugh and wonder whats going through peoples minds. |
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Good report but you left out a few things. Beef jerky, Don't eat it. There was plenty around. I just try to get past it because it stinks to me. beanie babies, lamps, purses
Didn't see any. Wouldn't have noticed if they were. , tshirt,
The tshirt tables seemed to be doing the MOST business. nazi table
They hang out at Market Hall I know - but didn't see any at this show. Might have been, but again, my eyes just look past/through all that crap. Stroller/Scooter count
HOLY SHIT --- I totally forgot. There were more disabled/morbidly obese people in scooters at this show than all other shows I have been to combined. There was at least one scooter trying to pass through/mow people down on EACH ROW. It was insane. I am always respectful but it got really annoying after a while, these guys get PUSHY with those scooters. When you see the 400 pounder with his 50 pound nuts/fat roll hanging out over the seat.... yeah, I get out of that guy's way. What did you wear?
Texas Multigun Championship Surefire 2013 match t-shirt. Picked up a buddy on the way there, and sure enough he wore his too. We looked like the bobbsey twins. Anyone show up in costume? Look like they did?
Anyone shit their pants? Smell like it? Negative. Didn't check pants... I was looking at guns. No poop was smelled that day. Well, wait, that's a lie. The bathrooms at Will Rogers are not ventilated well and I think there was 800 grandpas that had to take their morning dump there.... because those things were rank. And they put the food stand right in between the two sets of bathrooms - genius. |
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Overall.... the trend is inventory is up, prices are coming down. For ammo.... still bleak. I'm guessing gonna be that way for another year or more. I wonder if in 18 months a ton of ammo will be available on the second-hand market when 90% of these guys go 'I really don't need 10k rounds of ammo laying around the house...'. Kinda like we see with some of the used but barely shot ARs.... 4073 Personally, I do not see that happening. I agree with not going to see that happen. Didn't seem to happen after Barry first took the throne. |
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Oh, and LOTS of coin dealers selling bullion.... or more than I have noticed before. Everyone was trying to sell this new bullion coin - made of 100% pure copper. It was weird.... Silver Eagles were all $32 per coin. With spot right at $24, that's $8 over spot. Online - they are about the same.... I don't understand that either. I'm guessing most of the dealers bought these coins when the spot price was around $28-$30 and they are still trying to maintain their profit. I want to buy some Eagles but I'm not paying $8 over spot. I guess you missed my point - the budget ONLINE dealers are charging $8 over spot right now as well - this is the going rate for physical metal. So asking $8 over spot at the show is "market price". The cheapest price over spot I have found is around $5 (for eagles) but this requires a minimum 500 coin purchase. I get that. I'm just trying to figure out why the online sites are charging $8 over spot. I guess its like ammo...assholes are paying crazy prices so there is no need to lower them. |
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Oh, and LOTS of coin dealers selling bullion.... or more than I have noticed before. Everyone was trying to sell this new bullion coin - made of 100% pure copper. It was weird.... Silver Eagles were all $32 per coin. With spot right at $24, that's $8 over spot. Online - they are about the same.... I don't understand that either. I'm guessing most of the dealers bought these coins when the spot price was around $28-$30 and they are still trying to maintain their profit. I want to buy some Eagles but I'm not paying $8 over spot. I guess you missed my point - the budget ONLINE dealers are charging $8 over spot right now as well - this is the going rate for physical metal. So asking $8 over spot at the show is "market price". The cheapest price over spot I have found is around $5 (for eagles) but this requires a minimum 500 coin purchase. I get that. I'm just trying to figure out why the online sites are charging $8 over spot. I guess its like ammo...assholes are paying crazy prices so there is no need to lower them. When the *spot* price falls - two things happen: 1. Demand for physical silver increases 2. Dealers potentially lose money on existing inventory purchased at higher prices. Both of the above cause the price over spot to increase. The price over spot is not a constant. It is based on supply, demand, and moving average direction of spot. This is currently (theoretically) being made worse by supposed manipulation of the paper spot price, which is not always representative of the physical metal demand price. Given those three factors (whether you agree with the 3rd one or not) the price over spot for high-demand/low supply items like eagles increases. It will decrease as the moving average of paper spot price steadily increases. |