It only takes 4% overproduction in oil to create this kind of fiasco.
It seems to happen every few years when someone decides to have a price war.
About 90% of the people I worked with, including me, were laid off a couple of weeks ago.
We were not drillers. Machinists. We made bearings. Very specialized bearings for downhole drilling.
Last time we went through this, once drilling started again, it took the company I worked for almost two years to get back to where they could meet demand for our product. You can’t just flip a switch and start production again. You are lucky to get half the skilled people back. If they called me six months from now, I’m not sure I’d go back. (I already have another job offer although at a 25% cut in pay. Aerospace has its own issues)
To train new people, it takes about six months to get them to where they don’t have to be babysat. Two years to get them competent enough to do a set up and run on their own.
We typically buy our steel two months out. All the suppliers will be in the same boat.
It will take a minimum of two years to get the oil industry back to where it was a year ago.