Posted: 7/7/2017 1:02:05 PM EDT
Tropical Depression Four is headed Florida-way. The question is: Will it intensify into a hurricane?
There's plenty of warm water to help it develop: 
Computer model tracks: 
Seems the 'steering winds' are there: 
So...will it develop and hit Florida mid-week next? 
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Quoted:
As much as Florida is supposed to be this dangerous place to live because of storms, it seems to me these type usually track into and beat the crap out of the Carolinas more than anyplace.  If they enter the Gulf they hit the north LA/MS area. |
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Quoted:
As much as Florida is supposed to be this dangerous place to live because of storms, it seems to me these type usually track into and beat the crap out of the Carolinas more than anyplace.  If they enter the Gulf they hit the north LA/MS area. 
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Quoted:
As much as Florida is supposed to be this dangerous place to live because of storms, it seems to me these type usually track into and beat the crap out of the Carolinas more than anyplace.  If they enter the Gulf they hit the north LA/MS area. |
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Quoted:
Tropical Depression Four is headed Florida-way. The question is: Will it intensify into a hurricane? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png There's plenty of warm water to help it develop: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/sst_naQG3_ddc.gif Computer model tracks: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/04L_tracks_latest.png Seems the 'steering winds' are there: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5-1.GIF So...will it develop and hit Florida mid-week next? http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-flip-a-coin.png I just returned from a family vacation in FL. No WAY there is a hurricane hitting FL this year. Otherwise it would have hit while we were there. I am blood related to Murphy's Law. |
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It's been over a decade since the last really big Hurricane Season....FL is due.
That year was fucking hell. Matthew was a bit of a scare - rode that out before moving up to NC, but it did more damage in GA and SC than FL. While I hope I'm wrong, we are in for a bad season soon. |
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I want to go to FL if it turns into a big hurricane. Hurricanes are fun to ride out! |
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We call them the Naples ripple riders.
I will note that during that particular storm, the waves were as high as the pier, so I'm guessing 12 - 15 feet. Big enough to get a good ride body surfing. Given the waves at Naples are usually about a foot high, it was an event! 
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Well. Â You just added 2500 northern and Ohio transplants with that post....hope your happy. Quoted:
Quoted:
As much as Florida is supposed to be this dangerous place to live because of storms, it seems to me these type usually track into and beat the crap out of the Carolinas more than anyplace.  If they enter the Gulf they hit the north LA/MS area. |
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From NHC:
"...At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are probably associated with a few remaining squalls. The depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight..." http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071431.shtml Quoted:
Looks like fun to ride out...those we treated would argue that. Sadly, it's been a while since the State had a major Cane to hit, and fear most won't think their a big deal...only to regret it as things unfold. I won't miss it. Katrina... http://i.imgur.com/6suWfUe.jpg http://i.imgur.com/zhRQGil.jpg http://i.imgur.com/2hjwsHm.jpg Ivan... http://i.imgur.com/jAG8pOx.jpg http://i.imgur.com/yyYH7mb.jpg Obviously we did. 
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We up in NE Florida almost got slammed last year. First time I've actually been a little scared in a storm. Turned north right before it would have been devastating.
All the projections make me think this one won't really organize and will turn north well before it gets to us. But it'll be good practice time for the fiance. |
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From NHC: "...At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are probably associated with a few remaining squalls. The depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight..." http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071431.shtml Hurricane Hazel, 1954. My Dad, two uncles, and I were in a beach house about 1/3rd of the way from the top of the picture the night before it hit. The police came by shortly after nightfall and told us to GTFO. Obviously we did. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-br0nnhCfItA/UJBicx8cCxI/AAAAAAAAB2s/6C-fB6eoJGo/s1600/hurricane+Hazel+Long+Beach+1954.jpg Last storm to hit that area was 1921...and ruined the place. Now one of the most populated counties in the State...could prove to be devastating if people don't GTFO if in an appropriate evac zone. We lived on "high ground" ( whopping 65' above sea level )...and a non evac area...but the aftermath would SUCK. Relief to the area would most likely be an Arial op, as most ways in...are via bridges. |
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We up in NE Florida almost got slammed last year. First time I've actually been a little scared in a storm. Turned north right before it would have been devastating. All the projections make me think this one won't really organize and will turn north well before it gets to us. But it'll be good practice time for the fiance. 
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