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AR15.COM
7/5/2011 4:44:13 PM EDT
Lets just say:
Lets say the Republicans and the democrats dont reach a deal and the government defaults.
Interest rates immediately fly up 5% on all debt, Investors pull money out of the dollar left and right because they want a safe place to put it. The dollar declines in value drastically.
Inflation rises and oil, food and all other goods fly high up in price.
In the coming months the poor start rioting because they cant afford food and they arent getting food stamps either because the government doesnt have the money. Also they are getting kicked out of their homes because the government isnt paying for their section 8 housing anymore either.
Crime escalates drastically and homes are being broke into every day, even in the nicer neighborhoods. and people are getting mugged more regularly.
Even the middle class start getting squeezed. Their Adjustable Rate Mortgages have just went up, if not doubling because of the interest rate going up. they all of a sudden cant make their house payments and car payments and put food on the table. The people who thought they would be touched by whats happened in the last five years are. Companies are under even more pressure to make a profit. Because of the dollar fall international companies are bringing in profits, but the domestic only companies has to make a decision to lay off people and to buy the commodities they need to make and sell products or get into a ton of more debt at high interest rates. And thats to make and sell products to people who no longer can afford even the things they need.
Then lets just say the government a month after the melt down on the stock market and all the above, they finally agree and up the debt limit.....TOO LATE. Has your credit been perfect, forget to make a debt payment, made it, then it went back to perfect? I dont think so. The U.S. credit is perfect mainly because they have never EVER missed a payment.

Lets just say that the republicans and democrats at least temporarily increase the debt payment. Its only a temporary fix that has to be dealt with down the road. Eventually as Greece, if the government doesnt solve(deep cuts in spending, entitlement reform, and maybe even tax increases) this mess they are getting us into, we will be like Greece is today, if we arent as already, just prolonging a default.. The thing is, how do you bail out the worlds largest economy? You cant.
Even if the government cuts spending it will hurt the economy, send us back into recession (an official one, not the one we are in today.)

Another way to look at it, half the people in the U.S. currently get a paycheck from Uncle Sam. Imagine if some didnt get checks or their food stamps or section 8 housing, those people arent working because they have a reason and will now have to make some money. Stealing is as easy as getting onto welfare.

So the question is, are you ready?

To me this is all going to happen in the next 0 to twenty years. Its not a question of if, but when. This is what I am preparing for. If the government defaults who knows,  we could be invaded or who knows what, only God knows. But I am going to be prepared.
7/5/2011 4:54:59 PM EDT
[#1]
The gov. still has an income, me and you, some debts may be slower to get  paid. They just have to decide who gets paid this month. Hmmmm..... this sounds a little like my situation.
7/5/2011 5:52:23 PM EDT
[#2]
you have set up a house of cards there with all the suppositions and what if then whats?
7/5/2011 5:53:13 PM EDT
[#3]
Quoted:
The gov. still has an income, me and you, some debts may be slower to get  paid. They just have to decide who gets paid this month. Hmmmm..... this sounds a little like my situation.


Yes, but if they "default" according to moody s or Fitch or some other major credit agency their will be a flight of the debt as most is held by institutions as "the worlds safest investment." The dollar is a reserve currency and most people store those reserves in the U.S. debt. If the dollar loses the reserves status a good bit of that money will be taken out of the dollar and the dollar would depreciate adding more people to ditch their holdings to save capital.
The U.S. would not be able to borrow roughly half of their current spending. The U.S. would have half the income and not to mention debt payments to the debt they already have.
China could potentially trigger a horrible blow to the debt markets if they sold everything at once. I about that on here a year or two ago. The defense department a year ago even thought of the same idea. So it is a viable idea. Even with all the crappy remarks that people said it wouldnt happen ("who would be their customer?"), if the defense department considered it, its gotta have some weight.
7/5/2011 5:59:16 PM EDT
[#4]
Quoted:
you have set up a house of cards there with all the suppositions and what if then whats?


The economics would happen that way if it happened that way. We can have a nice discussion about macro economics if you want. I love the subject. Thats why I majored in Finance
The crime is an assumption.

All I am saying is two things.
1. If the government doesnt stop its spending they way they are, we will end up in default.
The republicans better cut the deficit by trillions and fast. We have two years according to Obama's panel to cut the deficit before Moodys cuts our rating or China stops buying the debt. A democrat said that. If not sooner. If will send our economy back in tailspin.

2. are you ready for that kind of scenario?
I pray that it doesnt happen, I am praying the republicans fight hard and reform health care, entitlements, and all other kinds of spending (like how about bring back our troops on a war we are ultimately not ever going to win?)
I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
7/5/2011 6:16:37 PM EDT
[#5]
About that interest rate ... a lot of folks, myself included, think that the prime rate should be somewhere around 6% right now to burn the bad paper out of the system.  At some point, the bond market will decide to wake up and take action and they will refuse to accept paper for less, and then all of the rates will, not may, WILL rise a great deal.  This will get ugly, because the Fed has pretty much shot their bolt on what they can work with, and when the rates that people will accept outside of prime brokers decouple from the "risk free rate" you will have a lot of problems with the credit system apart from just the interest rates.

I could easily see every interest rate out there 5-7% higher in the next 18 months, including mortgages.
7/5/2011 6:26:35 PM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
About that interest rate ... a lot of folks, myself included, think that the prime rate should be somewhere around 6% right now to burn the bad paper out of the system.  At some point, the bond market will decide to wake up and take action and they will refuse to accept paper for less, and then all of the rates will, not may, WILL rise a great deal.  This will get ugly, because the Fed has pretty much shot their bolt on what they can work with, and when the rates that people will accept outside of prime brokers decouple from the "risk free rate" you will have a lot of problems with the credit system apart from just the interest rates.

I could easily see every interest rate out there 5-7% higher in the next 18 months, including mortgages.


I agree! The reason they are trying to keep the rates so low is of course so businesses get lower interest rates to make more profit so they can expand and hire more. I agree that the interest rates are too low. And should be a lot higher! They dont want them to be high because it will raise the value of the dollar and push up deflation (which they are trying to combat!) Pushing up the value of the dollar up will also lose more jobs. They are trying to push more people to expand credit but I think they should be doing the reverse (I think, so that America will be a more healthier nation financially[thats my patriotism sticking out]) But doing that will hurt the GDP of course, so since the public isn't doing it, the government decided to and added a substantial amount in the last coupla years!
The government needs to realize the world works in cycles, and with the credit expansion we have gone through we need to contract, we have been borrowing so much we are borrowing from overseas. I think the dollar should decline in value (so we can get jobs back to pay for the debts) but also interest rates go up to discourage borrowing. It is a viscious cycle but thats my opinion so that we can return to a more healthy point. Increasing the interest rate for the government will push up debt payments and we would have to tax more or cut more spending.
Its almost a catch 22 situation, we arent their close but getting there
7/5/2011 6:26:43 PM EDT
[#7]
In the grand scheme of things why does the US actually need to be concerned about defaulting? I actually do understand the ramifications of defaulting but as we are currently the world's reserve currency and one of the largest consumer/importing nations countries will want our market. Unless China wanted to collapse they wouldn't dump our debt.  Our devalued dollar would ruin their export markets.  We still have substantial natural resources––a devalued dollar doesn't change the fact that other countries need our corn/wheat/timber/etc.  Would it be hell for us as we recover? likely. but we "should" recover stronger unless we go full socialist.

Take Greece for example. The basic position now is that Greece will default at this point no matter what.  Eurozone members are bullied into bailing them out depsite the fact that it's entirely pointless and simply encourages the Greeks to delay their austerity measures. By increasing our debt ceiling we are simply doing the same thing. I would rather take one big hit to the chin now than to drag this out over the next generation and wind up in the same spot.

Is it possible that by forever increasing the debt ceiling we are engaging in an economic cold war with China? Think of mutually ensured destruction with debt. China is forced to buy some of our debt or risk our defualt thereby risking their own economic collapse. The end result is a slow transfer of wealth from our country to theirs but their is a calculated risk that before "all" of our wealth is transferred the debt will be wiped out due to China's own economic collapse or a military conflict.

I need to chew on this some more. I would welcome any responses from econ/finance majors.

What this means for me is money in various savings and investment vehicles, plans for hedging inflation––buying food in bulk, growing food, living more simply, and (gasp) maximizing my own planned debt at current rates.  I do not worry about welfare riots––they will not happen. I lose sleep about the tax increases that I will bear to prevent said welfare riots from happening.
7/5/2011 6:35:02 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
Quoted:
About that interest rate ... a lot of folks, myself included, think that the prime rate should be somewhere around 6% right now to burn the bad paper out of the system.  At some point, the bond market will decide to wake up and take action and they will refuse to accept paper for less, and then all of the rates will, not may, WILL rise a great deal.  This will get ugly, because the Fed has pretty much shot their bolt on what they can work with, and when the rates that people will accept outside of prime brokers decouple from the "risk free rate" you will have a lot of problems with the credit system apart from just the interest rates.

I could easily see every interest rate out there 5-7% higher in the next 18 months, including mortgages.


I agree! The reason they are trying to keep the rates so low is of course so businesses get lower interest rates to make more profit so they can expand and hire more. I agree that the interest rates are too low. And should be a lot higher! They dont want them to be high because it will raise the value of the dollar and push up deflation (which they are trying to combat!) Pushing up the value of the dollar up will also lose more jobs. They are trying to push more people to expand credit but I think they should be doing the reverse (I think, so that America will be a more healthier nation financially[thats my patriotism sticking out]) But doing that will hurt the GDP of course, so since the public isn't doing it, the government decided to and added a substantial amount in the last coupla years!
The government needs to realize the world works in cycles, and with the credit expansion we have gone through we need to contract, we have been borrowing so much we are borrowing from overseas. I think the dollar should decline in value (so we can get jobs back to pay for the debts) but also interest rates go up to discourage borrowing. It is a viscious cycle but thats my opinion so that we can return to a more healthy point. Increasing the interest rate for the government will push up debt payments and we would have to tax more or cut more spending.
Its almost a catch 22 situation, we arent their close but getting there


That's true, but a real problem looming when the rates go back up is all of the folks with ARMs who have been saved by the low rates –– they will see their payments shoot up right at the moment that credit violently contracts, trapping them unless they default.  This is at the same time that home values will drop to sell when the rates are high, construction slows to a crawl because of those rates will prevent a lot of loans from being made, and you will have homes on the market sit even longer, dropping in price, while people cannot get notes.
7/6/2011 4:36:48 AM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:
About that interest rate ... a lot of folks, myself included, think that the prime rate should be somewhere around 6% right now to burn the bad paper out of the system.  At some point, the bond market will decide to wake up and take action and they will refuse to accept paper for less, and then all of the rates will, not may, WILL rise a great deal.  This will get ugly, because the Fed has pretty much shot their bolt on what they can work with, and when the rates that people will accept outside of prime brokers decouple from the "risk free rate" you will have a lot of problems with the credit system apart from just the interest rates.

I could easily see every interest rate out there 5-7% higher in the next 18 months, including mortgages.


I assume you are talking about adjustable rate mortages with immediate reset? I did not take any ecomonics and have been trying to learn the specifics of this. My ARM will only reset once per year with a max of 1 point at a time. I'm assuming that fixed rate mortages can't jump at all is this correct? My solution has been to buy tangibles now. Things you know you will need in the future. For retirement we planned on building on acreage we currently own. Would it be smart to go ahead and build now with a construction loan and then refi with a VA in the next year or so when rates are still low? Is there a maximum the FED can raise rates at any one time?
7/6/2011 7:30:31 AM EDT
[#10]
Quoted:
Lets just say:
Lets say the Republicans and the democrats dont reach a deal and the government defaults. ...

AFAIK, this recommendation still stands, and the government won't default. There's certainly enough ongoing tax revenue to cover these costs (which includes debt service) indefinitely, and I could live with only these essential services for a very very long time.

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––-

A 1980 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum defines "essential" government services and "essential" employees as those:

* providing for the national security, including the conduct of foreign relations essential to the national security or the safety of life and property;
* providing for benefit payments and the performance of contract obligations under no-year or multi-year or other funds remaining available for those purposes;
* conducting essential activities to the extent that they protect life and property, including:

–– medical care of inpatients and emergency outpatient care;

–– activities essential to ensure continued public health and safety, including safe use of food, drugs, and hazardous materials;

–– continuance of air traffic control and other transportation safety functions and the protection of transport property;

–– border and coastal protection and surveillance;

–– protection of federal lands, buildings, waterways, equipment and other property owned by the United States;

–– care of prisoners and other persons in the custody of the United States;

–– law enforcement and criminal investigations;

–– emergency and disaster assistance;

–– activities that ensure production of power and maintenance of the power distribution system;

–– activities essential to the preservation of the essential elements of the money and banking system of the United States, including borrowing and tax collection activities of the Treasury; and

–– activities necessary to maintain protection of research property.


Congressional Report for Congress: 98-844
7/6/2011 10:27:10 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
Quoted:
About that interest rate ... a lot of folks, myself included, think that the prime rate should be somewhere around 6% right now to burn the bad paper out of the system.  At some point, the bond market will decide to wake up and take action and they will refuse to accept paper for less, and then all of the rates will, not may, WILL rise a great deal.  This will get ugly, because the Fed has pretty much shot their bolt on what they can work with, and when the rates that people will accept outside of prime brokers decouple from the "risk free rate" you will have a lot of problems with the credit system apart from just the interest rates.

I could easily see every interest rate out there 5-7% higher in the next 18 months, including mortgages.


I assume you are talking about adjustable rate mortages with immediate reset? I did not take any ecomonics and have been trying to learn the specifics of this. My ARM will only reset once per year with a max of 1 point at a time. I'm assuming that fixed rate mortages can't jump at all is this correct? My solution has been to buy tangibles now. Things you know you will need in the future. For retirement we planned on building on acreage we currently own. Would it be smart to go ahead and build now with a construction loan and then refi with a VA in the next year or so when rates are still low? Is there a maximum the FED can raise rates at any one time?


Yes, although it varies widely.

Fixed rate mortgages will stay put.

I think that rates will go up a lot, so if you want a loan at a lower rate, now would be the time.

The Fed can do whatever they want.
7/6/2011 11:08:07 AM EDT
[#12]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
About that interest rate ... a lot of folks, myself included, think that the prime rate should be somewhere around 6% right now to burn the bad paper out of the system.  At some point, the bond market will decide to wake up and take action and they will refuse to accept paper for less, and then all of the rates will, not may, WILL rise a great deal.  This will get ugly, because the Fed has pretty much shot their bolt on what they can work with, and when the rates that people will accept outside of prime brokers decouple from the "risk free rate" you will have a lot of problems with the credit system apart from just the interest rates.

I could easily see every interest rate out there 5-7% higher in the next 18 months, including mortgages.


I assume you are talking about adjustable rate mortages with immediate reset? I did not take any ecomonics and have been trying to learn the specifics of this. My ARM will only reset once per year with a max of 1 point at a time. I'm assuming that fixed rate mortages can't jump at all is this correct? My solution has been to buy tangibles now. Things you know you will need in the future. For retirement we planned on building on acreage we currently own. Would it be smart to go ahead and build now with a construction loan and then refi with a VA in the next year or so when rates are still low? Is there a maximum the FED can raise rates at any one time?


Yes, although it varies widely.

Fixed rate mortgages will stay put.

I think that rates will go up a lot, so if you want a loan at a lower rate, now would be the time.

The Fed can do whatever they want.

Thanks.
7/6/2011 11:10:49 AM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
About that interest rate ... a lot of folks, myself included, think that the prime rate should be somewhere around 6% right now to burn the bad paper out of the system.  At some point, the bond market will decide to wake up and take action and they will refuse to accept paper for less, and then all of the rates will, not may, WILL rise a great deal.  This will get ugly, because the Fed has pretty much shot their bolt on what they can work with, and when the rates that people will accept outside of prime brokers decouple from the "risk free rate" you will have a lot of problems with the credit system apart from just the interest rates.

I could easily see every interest rate out there 5-7% higher in the next 18 months, including mortgages.


I assume you are talking about adjustable rate mortages with immediate reset? I did not take any ecomonics and have been trying to learn the specifics of this. My ARM will only reset once per year with a max of 1 point at a time. I'm assuming that fixed rate mortages can't jump at all is this correct? My solution has been to buy tangibles now. Things you know you will need in the future. For retirement we planned on building on acreage we currently own. Would it be smart to go ahead and build now with a construction loan and then refi with a VA in the next year or so when rates are still low? Is there a maximum the FED can raise rates at any one time?


Yes, although it varies widely.

Fixed rate mortgages will stay put.

I think that rates will go up a lot, so if you want a loan at a lower rate, now would be the time.

The Fed can do whatever they want.

Thanks.


I am afraid that I see 1974 all over again.
7/6/2011 11:45:14 AM EDT
[#14]
At the moment, The US Gov't is the biggest holder of Treasury debt, to the tune of 8T, this includes SS 'trust fund' and Medicare. States hold a large chunk as well. We going to default on ourselves?

ETA: If you look at the ranking of different Country's debt to GDP ratios, for example, Greece has a ratio of 130 (IMF) vs. USA's 93 ( IMF). Pretty damn close if you ask me.
7/7/2011 5:29:56 PM EDT
[#15]
Quoted:
At the moment, The US Gov't is the biggest holder of Treasury debt, to the tune of 8T, this includes SS 'trust fund' and Medicare. States hold a large chunk as well. We going to default on ourselves?

ETA: If you look at the ranking of different Country's debt to GDP ratios, for example, Greece has a ratio of 130 (IMF) vs. USA's 93 ( IMF). Pretty damn close if you ask me.


Actually debt held by the public is above $9 trillion and the intergovernmental debt is over $4 Trillion. I dont know where you got your numbers, But I got mine from the government
International investors own half the public debt, with China owning about 15%.


In the grand scheme of things why does the US actually need to be concerned about defaulting? I actually do understand the ramifications of defaulting but as we are currently the world's reserve currency and one of the largest consumer/importing nations countries will want our market. Unless China wanted to collapse they wouldn't dump our debt. Our devalued dollar would ruin their export markets. We still have substantial natural resources––a devalued dollar doesn't change the fact that other countries need our corn/wheat/timber/etc. Would it be hell for us as we recover? likely. but we "should" recover stronger unless we go full socialist.

Take Greece for example. The basic position now is that Greece will default at this point no matter what. Eurozone members are bullied into bailing them out depsite the fact that it's entirely pointless and simply encourages the Greeks to delay their austerity measures. By increasing our debt ceiling we are simply doing the same thing. I would rather take one big hit to the chin now than to drag this out over the next generation and wind up in the same spot.

Is it possible that by forever increasing the debt ceiling we are engaging in an economic cold war with China? Think of mutually ensured destruction with debt. China is forced to buy some of our debt or risk our defualt thereby risking their own economic collapse. The end result is a slow transfer of wealth from our country to theirs but their is a calculated risk that before "all" of our wealth is transferred the debt will be wiped out due to China's own economic collapse or a military conflict.

I need to chew on this some more. I would welcome any responses from econ/finance majors.

What this means for me is money in various savings and investment vehicles, plans for hedging inflation––buying food in bulk, growing food, living more simply, and (gasp) maximizing my own planned debt at current rates. I do not worry about welfare riots––they will not happen. I lose sleep about the tax increases that I will bear to prevent said welfare riots from happening.


Why would China collapse if we did? I dont understand why people say that. They have manufacturing, they have their own resources and oil and they still do business with most of the world. Dont forget many economists have been pressuring China to start relying on its own domestic economy for growth than trying to leech growth off the rest of the world! Sous collapsing would cause them to rely more own their own domestic economy! And if they could make us collapse they would do what every nation out their does to their enemy, knock them out and set up puppet government and leech off it. They are currently buying land and resources all over the world (farmland in Africa, oil fields in Texas, Etc.)
If America fell the world would hurt, but only until another power came up to take its place.  

I have learned not to trust the media in 2008 when they said all this would be over and everything back to normal in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I am still waiting and everything has only gotten worse.

Own a little of everything, equities, commodities (NOT DEBT)....pay off your debt. Restrucutre the debt to good interest rates. Save money for a rainy day. Have cash in a place you can get it (if the banks go into depression era crisis mode and you cant get your money from them)
Think outside the box.
Think outside the box.
7/7/2011 7:22:44 PM EDT
[#16]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Lets just say:
Lets say the Republicans and the democrats dont reach a deal and the government defaults. ...

AFAIK, this recommendation still stands, and the government won't default. There's certainly enough ongoing tax revenue to cover these costs (which includes debt service) indefinitely, and I could live with only these essential services for a very very long time.

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––-

A 1980 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum defines "essential" government services and "essential" employees as those:

* providing for the national security, including the conduct of foreign relations essential to the national security or the safety of life and property;
* providing for benefit payments and the performance of contract obligations under no-year or multi-year or other funds remaining available for those purposes;
* conducting essential activities to the extent that they protect life and property, including:

–– medical care of inpatients and emergency outpatient care;

–– activities essential to ensure continued public health and safety, including safe use of food, drugs, and hazardous materials;

–– continuance of air traffic control and other transportation safety functions and the protection of transport property;

–– border and coastal protection and surveillance;

–– protection of federal lands, buildings, waterways, equipment and other property owned by the United States;

–– care of prisoners and other persons in the custody of the United States;

–– law enforcement and criminal investigations;

–– emergency and disaster assistance;

–– activities that ensure production of power and maintenance of the power distribution system;

–– activities essential to the preservation of the essential elements of the money and banking system of the United States, including borrowing and tax collection activities of the Treasury; and

–– activities necessary to maintain protection of research property.


Congressional Report for Congress: 98-844


This is a simplified version of one example of what is ongoing in layman's terms.  Years ago what qualified as interstate commerce was a limited number of things.  For example, if you purchased an item from another state, you engaged in interstate commerce.  Now, if you make something yourself, you still fall under the interstate commerce laws since by making it yourself you did not purchase it from across state lines and therefore you affected interstate commerce.  Basically, everything now falls under the interstate commerce laws, meaning that the federal government now has the court backing to regulate all commerce, interstate or not.

The point I am trying to make is that the government will use every possible excuse to include every function within one of the "essential" categories you listed above.  Nothing will change.

Look at the list you posted.  How far do you think the federal government would have to stretch to classify all of their functions in one of the categories.  For example: "–– activities essential to the preservation of the essential elements of the money and banking system of the United States, including borrowing and tax collection activities of the Treasury;"  

This could easily include all business regulations, and all government employed and subcontracted supporting staff (excuse being to preserve tax revenue).  This could include all social services and all government employed and subcontracted supporting staff (excuse being to produce tax payers).   This could include all government run security / intelligence services and all government employed and subcontracted supporting staff (the excuse being to prevent any decrease in revenue) Etc...  There is no limit to what the courts will allow the government to stretch their influence to include.  After all, the employees who work in the court system are paid by the government, and any such limiting list means nothing.  It is a nice feel good concept and list, but don't be deceived;  It means NOTHING.
7/7/2011 10:18:13 PM EDT
[#17]
Quoted:
The point I am trying to make is that the government will use every possible excuse to include every function within one of the "essential" categories you listed above.  Nothing will change.  ...

There is no limit to what the courts will allow the government to stretch their influence to include.  After all, the employees who work in the court system are paid by the government, and any such limiting list means nothing.  It is a nice feel good concept and list, but don't be deceived;  It means NOTHING.

The point is ... I don't care.

If the debt limit isn't raised, the government can and will repay maturing debt with a small fraction of existing tax revenue.  And frankly, other than defending our borders and supporting a judicial system, I don't particularly care how the remainder of the money is or isn't spent.

7/8/2011 3:00:28 PM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:
Quoted:
The point I am trying to make is that the government will use every possible excuse to include every function within one of the "essential" categories you listed above.  Nothing will change.  ...

There is no limit to what the courts will allow the government to stretch their influence to include.  After all, the employees who work in the court system are paid by the government, and any such limiting list means nothing.  It is a nice feel good concept and list, but don't be deceived;  It means NOTHING.

The point is ... I don't care.

If the debt limit isn't raised, the government can and will repay maturing debt with a small fraction of existing tax revenue.  And frankly, other than defending our borders and supporting a judicial system, I don't particularly care how the remainder of the money is or isn't spent.



ya, but when bonds mature, you are supposed to pay back the money. Right now we are just paying the interest payments. We have over $2 or 3 trillion in short term bills. Which means they are going to expire and the government comes due to pay them off in the next year. Do you think they can come up with that and still pay the other bills?
If you dont pay the debt, other countries will sanction us and not allow anything in or out. So no more getting oil in or other necessities to keep running.  If the government were controlled by die hard conservatives who progressed towards lassiez faire and capitalism, we could be out of this mess and be out of it in maybe ten years. But it will be hell getting there.

The one question I have is I have always heard that the federal reserve could just print us money out of the situation. Is this technically what they have done already? Or are they talking about printing and GIVING the money to the government? I think the way it is is that they give the interest to the government? Anybody know more on that? The government debt they have bought so far was on the market and they can sell it at any time.
7/11/2011 5:51:16 PM EDT
[#19]
[
quote]Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
The point I am trying to make is that the government will use every possible excuse to include every function within one of the "essential" categories you listed above.  Nothing will change.  ...

There is no limit to what the courts will allow the government to stretch their influence to include.  After all, the employees who work in the court system are paid by the government, and any such limiting list means nothing.  It is a nice feel good concept and list, but don't be deceived;  It means NOTHING.

The point is ... I don't care.

If the debt limit isn't raised, the government can and will repay maturing debt with a small fraction of existing tax revenue.  And frankly, other than defending our borders and supporting a judicial system, I don't particularly care how the remainder of the money is or isn't spent.



ya, but when bonds mature, you are supposed to pay back the money. Right now we are just paying the interest payments. We have over $2 or 3 trillion in short term bills. Which means they are going to expire and the government comes due to pay them off in the next year. Do you think they can come up with that and still pay the other bills?
If you dont pay the debt, other countries will sanction us and not allow anything in or out. So no more getting oil in or other necessities to keep running.  If the government were controlled by die hard conservatives who progressed towards lassiez faire and capitalism, we could be out of this mess and be out of it in maybe ten years. But it will be hell getting there.

The one question I have is I have always heard that the federal reserve could just print us money out of the situation. Is this technically what they have done already? Or are they talking about printing and GIVING the money to the government? I think the way it is is that they give the interest to the government? Anybody know more on that? The government debt they have bought so far was on the market and they can sell it at any time.[/quote]




Do you mean like a naval blockade?  I don't think any country is powerful enough to do that.  Greece is defaulting now and the other countries know if they try to stop the recovery they will never get any of their money back.  Better to work with the defaulting country than to cut them off and let them die and get nothing.  I agree we are pretty much screwed no matter which party gets in.  The republicans in theory would be an improvement IF THEY STICK WITH THEIR IDEALS.  I am losing faith though.
7/11/2011 6:35:12 PM EDT
[#20]
Boner is already trying to give in to the dems and "0"..I am afraid, be it Dems or Repub, we are screwed...