[ARCHIVED THREAD] - SHTF Systems Breakdown Time Frame? (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 4/13/2015 11:56:56 AM EDT
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Has there been any studies or literature out there on when parts of the infrastructure start failing in a SHTF scenario? For example I know that most cell phone towers only have about 36 to 48 hours of emergency power before they fail without electricity. We are on rural water in the country, and depending on the demand, the water pressure starts to fall after just a few hours without electricity.
There are other things like GPS, Internet, and etc. that I haven't heard much about. I know they must have a time frame also that would be the expected amount of usage time before failure. I know that much of it would depend on the severity of the event. My thoughts are related to more of a collapse of the infrastructure, and not a complete catastrophic destruction scenario. |
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I would think that would depend greatly. The internet won't "go down", but local servers will. Your ISP will. Even your land line phone will fail within a few days. They depend on backup power and batteries. I would imagine it would take a very large amount of money to think tank and war game each scenario individually. Lots of factors for the time frame before shutdown for various events and locations. |
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Whell most grocery stores would be empty in three days if trucks can't roll. That's assuming no one panic buys. Your average Walmart super center gets between six and ten truck loads of both food and general merchandise a day. The small Safeway I work at gets between 600 and 800 cases a night.
So, if power was out in western Washington where the groceries are loaded for delivery, my store in eastern Washington would be screwed even if eveything on this side of the mountains was up and running. Just in time delivery of food is a huge soft spot for the general public IMHO. And that's just one tiny piece of a big ass puzzle. So IMHO it really wouldnt be the power or phones going down that would cause the biggest problems,mit would be the down steam stuff that would cause the biggest problems. |
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Has there been any studies or literature out there on when parts of the infrastructure start failing in a SHTF scenario? For example I know that most cell phone towers only have about 36 to 48 hours of emergency power before they fail without electricity. We are on rural water in the country, and depending on the demand, the water pressure starts to fall after just a few hours without electricity. There are other things like GPS, Internet, and etc. that I haven't heard much about. I know they must have a time frame also that would be the expected amount of usage time before failure. I know that much of it would depend on the severity of the event. My thoughts are related to more of a collapse of the infrastructure, and not a complete catastrophic destruction scenario. Some things will depend on whether they are still using analog/mechanical as opposed to digital components. For example, I asked how long natural gas would keep flowing to our home after a power failure. The answer I got from gas industry professionals was that it depended on how much of the area you live in had been upgraded to digital. Digital components of the gas pipeline system fill fail immediately in the event of power loss. Some types of analog/mechanical components would stay open. Our home gas meters are analog and independent of electricity for example, and would function. The problem is more and more of the "gas grid" is updated to digital every day. It's really a shame that "upgrading" systems almost invariably gives less fail safe function in exchange for convenience and ease of central control. Much like our political system. 
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I would think that would depend greatly. The internet won't "go down", but local servers will. Your ISP will. Even your land line phone will fail within a few days. They depend on backup power and batteries. I would imagine it would take a very large amount of money to think tank and war game each scenario individually. Lots of factors for the time frame before shutdown for various events and locations. Ham radio power by batteries charged by solar and or wind is a good backup for comms. But forget about repeaters. Their backups will only run until the fuel runs out unless they are solar too, and I am not aware of any like that. It's going to be simplex only, and HF only for long range. Older single band sideband (all mode) VHF and UHF transceivers, some 20 years old or more, have been selling at ridiculous prices on ebay and ham forums because they are not available anymore. Sideband gives you more range at intermediate ranges than you can get with FM, without some of the antenna requirements of HF. (you still need altitude). I can only guess the reason these vintage radios are selling for so much is preppers want that capability without spending $1000 for a multiband all mode radio. |
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87 hours. 
So...roughly 3.6 days. Once the grocery stores empty and the lights don't come back on, the panic and rioting will take down what little working infrastructure is left. I have read in the past that society is only 7 meals thick. After prepping for a colonoscopy, I would revise that number to 4. |
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Quoted: I have read in the past that society is only 7 meals thick. After prepping for a colonoscopy, I would revise that number to 4. Quoted: Quoted: 87 hours. So...roughly 3.6 days. Once the grocery stores empty and the lights don't come back on, the panic and rioting will take down what little working infrastructure is left. I have read in the past that society is only 7 meals thick. After prepping for a colonoscopy, I would revise that number to 4.  |
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At an old job back in the '90s I was tasked with a technical report on GPS; it may have changed, but if
the satellites don't get their ephemeris data updated by a ground station, the entire system starts to get unusable in about two weeks. The amount of redundancy and fault tolerance built into GPS is insane though, it's literally one of the most reliability-design systems made by man, so you'd probably need nukes to take out every one of the ground control stations, and given how much was designed into the system, I wouldn't be surprised if there are portable stations we don't know about for this very contingency. I actually can't think of a better indicator of TEOWAWKI than GPS going down, since it would say that the one of the highest priority systems run by the largest and best funded military on the planet couldn't be maintained with even one ground station uplink. |
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I would think that would depend greatly. The internet won't "go down", but local servers will. Your ISP will. Even your land line phone will fail within a few days. They depend on backup power and batteries. I would imagine it would take a very large amount of money to think tank and war game each scenario individually. Lots of factors for the time frame before shutdown for various events and locations. Anecdotal, but in my town we had a semi-long power failure (4 hours) last summer. Everything important at my house is on backup power, so it was a non-issue to me, but about two hours in the internet stopped working. I logged into the router used to connect to my wireless internet provider, and it was their infrastructure that went down, and not mine. I switched to a cell connection and that was still up. Cell phones are actually a lot more robust now, in many cases moreso than landlines. After Katrina, the FCC issued a new rule requiring backup power to be installed at most cell sites, and when Sandy hit, we had the situation where people had cell service (sometimes only 4G data, strangely enough) but no power, etc. The FCC rule was eventually overturned, though. What's scary is the amount of backup power that was mandated - just 8 hours. I'm sure that key sites have more, but I think you can count on losing a lot, if not all, of the communications infrastructure (cell, landline, internet) in 3 days or less, and probably a very big chunk in under a day. |
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Well most grocery stores would be empty in three days if trucks can't roll. That's assuming no one panic buys. Your average Walmart super center gets between six and ten truck loads of both food and general merchandise a day. The small Safeway I work at gets between 600 and 800 cases a night. So, if power was out in western Washington where the groceries are loaded for delivery, my store in eastern Washington would be screwed even if everything on this side of the mountains was up and running. Just in time delivery of food is a huge soft spot for the general public IMHO. And that's just one tiny piece of a big ass puzzle. So IMHO it really wouldn't be the power or phones going down that would cause the biggest problems, it would be the down steam stuff that would cause the biggest problems. But if the power outage area encompasses your location, how are the stores going to sell their product to the masses? Even if you have the cash ("exact change, please"), how are the stores going to tally up your bill and complete the transaction (don't forget adding in those pesky taxes as well). I don't know the answer to this question, but how many stores have a back up power system that can run those 3 [initially] critical days? I've driven around my Wally Super Store and I can't say I've ever seen any evidence of a back up generator. Inquiring Bears would like to know (not that I'm depending on the grocery stores being open --- or that I'd even step foot in one during a panic).
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At an old job back in the '90s I was tasked with a technical report on GPS; it may have changed, but if the satellites don't get their ephemeris data updated by a ground station, the entire system starts to get unusable in about two weeks. The amount of redundancy and fault tolerance built into GPS is insane though, it's literally one of the most reliability-design systems made by man, so you'd probably need nukes to take out every one of the ground control stations, and given how much was designed into the system, I wouldn't be surprised if there are portable stations we don't know about for this very contingency. I actually can't think of a better indicator of TEOWAWKI than GPS going down, since it would say that the one of the highest priority systems run by the largest and best funded military on the planet couldn't be maintained with even one ground station uplink. Oh Boy, here's a GPS/EMP alarm from 3 years ago to tell when the SHTF really has hit... GPS Alarm with PIXS 
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Just an anecdote:
In the aftermath of Katrina, my parents who live in rural MS lost power for about 10 days. They left the house once to get gas about a week into it, and by that time things weren't too crazy in town. For the most part they just ate the food they had and life carried on like normal except they didn't have any air conditioning or hot water, which was an inconvenience but live-able. I think they slept on the trampoline in the backyard because it was cooler outside than inside. My parents weren't the exception but rather the rule out where they live. Power outages are common and may last a week or longer if there was really bad weather. Meanwhile, I was in Jackson, MS, and the very next day after Katrina a local grocery store wasn't letting people inside, but had a line outside where you could buy one gallon of water and one loaf of bread. Limit one each per person. They were lined up outside there and when people started worrying at the end of the line that they wouldn't have any when they got there, they started panicking. Ended up with someone being shot over their gallon of water and loaf of bread... Keep in mind this is ONE DAY after. Basically, I think the countdown to SHTF depends on where you out and how well prepared those around you are for loss of services. But if you are looking for a specific number to apply across the board, I like the 87 hours answer. |
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Does that mean coming out of the basement? Or getting off the sofa down there and rummaging around for an old pop tart? Kidding.  Quoted:
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I can go three days. After that I start seriously looking for food. Does that mean coming out of the basement? Or getting off the sofa down there and rummaging around for an old pop tart? Kidding. Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days.
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Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days. Quoted:
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I can go three days. After that I start seriously looking for food. Does that mean coming out of the basement? Or getting off the sofa down there and rummaging around for an old pop tart? Kidding. Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days. 
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There was a great report done by the trucking industry about what happens if trucks stopped rolling (no diesel, for example). It can be found here. I know when a hurricane is inbound, a lot of trucking outfits pull there drivers and rigs out of the area so they don't get stuck unable to leave or damaged.
The last hurricane we had roll thru here was after all the Katrina "upgrades" were supposed to have been done. The order of cascade failure was: (1) cable and cable internet went out immediately (2) cell phone service lasted a little more than 8 hours. (3) POTS lines went dead after 24 hours. A few gas stations (like maybe a quarter of them) had backup generators and pumped gas until they ran out (in a day, no more than 2). A few grocery stores got industrial backup generators after Isabel but they typically only have enough fuel stored there for 24 hours. I guess the assumption is that either all the food will have been sold or trucks would be able to re-supply fuel within 24 hours. Not sure either of those assumptions are valid. The main reason why they got backup generators is the ridiculous amount of money they lost in frozen and refrigerated food when the power went out. They would easily pay for a backup generator in lost goods. Look how long it took to get aircraft back in the air after 9/11. Heck, look at how many businesses all across the country just flat out shut down for a couple of days that had nothing to do with any of the terror targets. If the power grid went down over a large portion of the country simultaneously, it would wreak havoc for days, if not weeks. Similarly, if we suddenly got a rash of IEDs being used against trucking and the result was they stopped risking getting on the road, we'd be in a serious world of hurt within 2-3 days. It all depends on your definition of SHTF. 
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Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days. Quoted:
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I can go three days. After that I start seriously looking for food. Does that mean coming out of the basement? Or getting off the sofa down there and rummaging around for an old pop tart? Kidding. Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days. LOL. No doubt. |
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Quoted: Ham radio power by batteries charged by solar and or wind is a good backup for comms. But forget about repeaters. Their backups will only run until the fuel runs out unless they are solar too, and I am not aware of any like that. It's going to be simplex only, and HF only for long range. Older single band sideband (all mode) VHF and UHF transceivers, some 20 years old or more, have been selling at ridiculous prices on ebay and ham forums because they are not available anymore. Sideband gives you more range at intermediate ranges than you can get with FM, without some of the antenna requirements of HF. (you still need altitude). I can only guess the reason these vintage radios are selling for so much is preppers want that capability without spending $1000 for a multiband all mode radio. Quoted: Quoted: I would think that would depend greatly. The internet won't "go down", but local servers will. Your ISP will. Even your land line phone will fail within a few days. They depend on backup power and batteries. I would imagine it would take a very large amount of money to think tank and war game each scenario individually. Lots of factors for the time frame before shutdown for various events and locations. Ham radio power by batteries charged by solar and or wind is a good backup for comms. But forget about repeaters. Their backups will only run until the fuel runs out unless they are solar too, and I am not aware of any like that. It's going to be simplex only, and HF only for long range. Older single band sideband (all mode) VHF and UHF transceivers, some 20 years old or more, have been selling at ridiculous prices on ebay and ham forums because they are not available anymore. Sideband gives you more range at intermediate ranges than you can get with FM, without some of the antenna requirements of HF. (you still need altitude). I can only guess the reason these vintage radios are selling for so much is preppers want that capability without spending $1000 for a multiband all mode radio. I wonder how long satellite could be used for relay. |
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Without power from the grid I.e. Power plants we wouldn't stand a chance past a week at most even with generators.
Power runs everything as we know so think water supply and waste disposal, pumps got to pump water either to pressurize lines or pump it up to a tower for Gravity pressure. Waste lines are mostly gravity fed until they get to a lift staton that pumps it up to a higher elevation and uses Gravity again to keep the waste flowing to the plant. Depends on a few factors such as type of collection system etc but as far as water and sewer max time before issue arose would be a few days. Problems would creep up more than likely far faster than that. Most of these places have backup generators but are they stocked to do oil changes and maintenance beyond the next scheduled maintenance cycle? Think about hospitals and their backups, how long can they last? The only thing I could see working with no power, without a generator for a longer period of time would be solar charged batteries for radios or batteries to power old school copper phone lines which run at 48VDC IIRC. But that would only be good for so many miles of wire. Dependency on power plants that can't expand to meet new demand and refusing to acknowledge that we need more power plants and transmission lines to feed the dream of electric everything clean air utopia espoused by the likes of Al Gore will be our downfall. Also as others have said IED on the highways and we are done. The key to all this is to have enough to last some time and always stock up, grow your own etc to never be in a postion where you have to worry about running out of what ever within 24 hours. |
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http://www.myhostedpics.com/images/dtolerant/walmart.jpg After less than 1 day without power, Walmart will throw out all the refrigerated and frozen stuff. The Wally world I used to live by in CA was all solar. wonder how that would hold up. |
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I have read in the past that society is only 7 meals thick. After prepping for a colonoscopy, I would revise that number to 4. Quoted:
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87 hours.
So...roughly 3.6 days. Once the grocery stores empty and the lights don't come back on, the panic and rioting will take down what little working infrastructure is left. I have read in the past that society is only 7 meals thick. After prepping for a colonoscopy, I would revise that number to 4. Based on personal experiences after major disasters in urban centers your assessment is scary accurate |
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Quoted: An all electric car like a Leaf, and good solar charging array, might be worth a mint in a prolonged blackout type event. Gas pumps need electricity. Might have to put an M249 or M60 mounted in front of the sun roof to keep it though,. |
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Quoted:...The Wally world I used to live by in CA was all solar... I'm in Arkansas (the home of walmart) and as I understand it, their on-store solar setups that they have on a couple hundred of their stores generate something like 15-20% of the store's electrical usage. They might run registers & phones, but I doubt they'd run the normal lighting load, never mind refrigeration compressors & such. They may be better nowadays; my info is a couple years old, not sure how much they've changed in the meantime. 
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Quoted: Just an anecdote: In the aftermath of Katrina, my parents who live in rural MS lost power for about 10 days. They left the house once to get gas about a week into it, and by that time things weren't too crazy in town. For the most part they just ate the food they had and life carried on like normal except they didn't have any air conditioning or hot water, which was an inconvenience but live-able. I think they slept on the trampoline in the backyard because it was cooler outside than inside. My parents weren't the exception but rather the rule out where they live. Power outages are common and may last a week or longer if there was really bad weather. Meanwhile, I was in Jackson, MS, and the very next day after Katrina a local grocery store wasn't letting people inside, but had a line outside where you could buy one gallon of water and one loaf of bread. Limit one each per person. They were lined up outside there and when people started worrying at the end of the line that they wouldn't have any when they got there, they started panicking. Ended up with someone being shot over their gallon of water and loaf of bread... Keep in mind this is ONE DAY after. Basically, I think the countdown to SHTF depends on where you out and how well prepared those around you are for loss of services. But if you are looking for a specific number to apply across the board, I like the 87 hours answer. Where do your folks live? I responded about 3 days after Katrina and our meet up/rally point was Jackson. Although chaotic, it wasn't as bad as I was expecting. My dad and I transported food and water to Poplarville, Hattiesburg and Petal MS and Slidell LA. Stayed about three weeks, mostly in Poplarville. I was surprised at the amount of damaged caused by the storm that far north of the coast. Poplarville did not have electricity for 10-12 days, depending where you lived. When we first arrived at Polarville, our local contact was supposed to meet us off the 59 freeway at the 26(?) exit. We met in of the local market that had been looted a day or two prior to our arrival and was now closed with a couple police cars parked out front. Our local contact explained that a day or two prior to Katrina and the day after, there was a mass exodus from the coast. Most people were ill prepared for a weekend roadtrip, let alone, a mass refugee type evacuation. A drive that usually took and hour or two was at a stand still and vehicles were running out of gas along the 59 North and doing burglaries, and in some cases, home invasions of the farm houses along the freeway. Our contact said the market had been looted a couple days before Katrina and it wasn't until the local PD blocked the North and southbound exit to the 59 with a couple police cars and some "deputized" locals with shotguns, that the problems stopped. The wouldn't allow anyone that was local to exit for gas, food, or water. The locals we met, in all four town/cities, were wonderful and very happy that we were there. Most were very independent since they were working farmland and already had gas, food, generators on hand. |
| We had about three days without power during the blackout in 2003. While the cell towers were supposedly up and running, we got nothing because of the massive amount of cellular traffic. I don't know if they were actually up and running or not, but they were certainly useless. |
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The Wally world I used to live by in CA was all solar. wonder how that would hold up. Quoted:
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http://www.myhostedpics.com/images/dtolerant/walmart.jpg After less than 1 day without power, Walmart will throw out all the refrigerated and frozen stuff. The Wally world I used to live by in CA was all solar. wonder how that would hold up. Everything here was buried under 16 inches of snow. Which hasn't happened in 30 years prior. They could just put the food outside, but I'm sure some government official would shit his panties and tell them it would be better to let people starve. |
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Somewhere online you can find the original 2005 congressional report on the threat of EMP. It's about 80 pages long and runs through the estimated times for cascading system failures across the grid, logistics, fuel and food networks.... if memory serves, most supermarkets have 3-4 days worth of food for their immediate neighborhoods. the local or regional distribution centers have 1 month's worth of food for their region (those huge non-descript white buildings with 40+ truck bays). Beyond that food stock, there is the just in time international delivery system.
So a disruption in shipping, rail, and truck transport lasting longer than 3 weeks for a time zone might be catastrophic and non recoverable. But the good news is there has never been such a time-zone wide disruption of the network....ever. even in war. People find a way to move food and supplies even during sieges and general mayhem. Governments certainly but business has direct incentives to keep the trucks rolling 24/7. Given all the private generators and Glenn Beck fans, I have to think that we are much better prepared for a grid down scenario in 2015 then we were in 2005. |
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There was a great report done by the trucking industry about what happens if trucks stopped rolling (no diesel, for example). It can be found here. I know when a hurricane is inbound, a lot of trucking outfits pull there drivers and rigs out of the area so they don't get stuck unable to leave or damaged. The last hurricane we had roll thru here was after all the Katrina "upgrades" were supposed to have been done. The order of cascade failure was: (1) cable and cable internet went out immediately (2) cell phone service lasted a little more than 8 hours. (3) POTS lines went dead after 24 hours. A few gas stations (like maybe a quarter of them) had backup generators and pumped gas until they ran out (in a day, no more than 2). A few grocery stores got industrial backup generators after Isabel but they typically only have enough fuel stored there for 24 hours. I guess the assumption is that either all the food will have been sold or trucks would be able to re-supply fuel within 24 hours. Not sure either of those assumptions are valid. The main reason why they got backup generators is the ridiculous amount of money they lost in frozen and refrigerated food when the power went out. They would easily pay for a backup generator in lost goods. Look how long it took to get aircraft back in the air after 9/11. Heck, look at how many businesses all across the country just flat out shut down for a couple of days that had nothing to do with any of the terror targets. If the power grid went down over a large portion of the country simultaneously, it would wreak havoc for days, if not weeks. Similarly, if we suddenly got a rash of IEDs being used against trucking and the result was they stopped risking getting on the road, we'd be in a serious world of hurt within 2-3 days. It all depends on your definition of SHTF. I enjoyed reading that linked doc. Obviously written from the trucker's point of view, but I wonder how far from reality/how accurate it is. |
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At an old job back in the '90s I was tasked with a technical report on GPS; it may have changed, but if the satellites don't get their ephemeris data updated by a ground station, the entire system starts to get unusable in about two weeks. The amount of redundancy and fault tolerance built into GPS is insane though, it's literally one of the most reliability-design systems made by man, so you'd probably need nukes to take out every one of the ground control stations, and given how much was designed into the system, I wouldn't be surprised if there are portable stations we don't know about for this very contingency. I actually can't think of a better indicator of TEOWAWKI than GPS going down, since it would say that the one of the highest priority systems run by the largest and best funded military on the planet couldn't be maintained with even one ground station uplink. Yes, China will shoot those down, right before they set one 3 of them over the US at 10k feet. It won't be just one. |
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Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days. Quoted:
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I can go three days. After that I start seriously looking for food. Does that mean coming out of the basement? Or getting off the sofa down there and rummaging around for an old pop tart? Kidding. Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days. My work tie could be placed into a cup of hot water, and when pulled out I would have a hearty soup. |
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My work tie could be placed into a cup of hot water, and when pulled out I would have a hearty soup. Quoted:
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I can go three days. After that I start seriously looking for food. Does that mean coming out of the basement? Or getting off the sofa down there and rummaging around for an old pop tart? Kidding. Nah I can just turn my keyboard over, and live off the crumbs that fall out for a couple more days. My work tie could be placed into a cup of hot water, and when pulled out I would have a hearty soup. You laugh, but my grandmother who was a child in Europe during WWI, says that her Father told her stories about marching off to fight on the front lines, and because of the scarcity of rations, when food was available, he would fill his handlebar mustache with jam and molasses and then suck it out later when there was no food and while on the march. 
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I enjoyed reading that linked doc. Obviously written from the trucker's point of view, but I wonder how far from reality/how accurate it is. Quoted:
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There was a great report done by the trucking industry about what happens if trucks stopped rolling (no diesel, for example). It can be found here. I know when a hurricane is inbound, a lot of trucking outfits pull there drivers and rigs out of the area so they don't get stuck unable to leave or damaged. The last hurricane we had roll thru here was after all the Katrina "upgrades" were supposed to have been done. The order of cascade failure was: (1) cable and cable internet went out immediately (2) cell phone service lasted a little more than 8 hours. (3) POTS lines went dead after 24 hours. A few gas stations (like maybe a quarter of them) had backup generators and pumped gas until they ran out (in a day, no more than 2). A few grocery stores got industrial backup generators after Isabel but they typically only have enough fuel stored there for 24 hours. I guess the assumption is that either all the food will have been sold or trucks would be able to re-supply fuel within 24 hours. Not sure either of those assumptions are valid. The main reason why they got backup generators is the ridiculous amount of money they lost in frozen and refrigerated food when the power went out. They would easily pay for a backup generator in lost goods. Look how long it took to get aircraft back in the air after 9/11. Heck, look at how many businesses all across the country just flat out shut down for a couple of days that had nothing to do with any of the terror targets. If the power grid went down over a large portion of the country simultaneously, it would wreak havoc for days, if not weeks. Similarly, if we suddenly got a rash of IEDs being used against trucking and the result was they stopped risking getting on the road, we'd be in a serious world of hurt within 2-3 days. It all depends on your definition of SHTF. I enjoyed reading that linked doc. Obviously written from the trucker's point of view, but I wonder how far from reality/how accurate it is. My guess is that if there was a rash of IEDs on the major interstates, once the lamestream press got hold of it, the truckers would say "F this, I aint gettin blowed up fer nobody". If that were to happen, the whole country would freeze up most riki-tick. I think the document was written agnostic to the type of event that would cause trucks to stop moving. If all the diesel-producing refineries were hit by Chinese hackers and blew themselves to smitherines, then the trucks wouldn't be rolling after a couple of days. Same-same if there was a man-bear-pig-Ebola-anthrax-GMOflu-hybrid pandemic and travel restrictions were imposed nationwide to contain the outbreak. Most of our day-to-day necessities are being supplied in just-in-time fashion and have been for years. So, the slightest disruption can set up a cascade failure pretty easily. Amazing yet sad that we've become so technologically advanced yet far more "brittle" than we used to be. |
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An all electric car like a Leaf, and good solar charging array, might be worth a mint in a prolonged blackout type event. Gas pumps need electricity. Might have to put an M249 or M60 mounted in front of the sun roof to keep it though,. The dudes owning the gas station don't need a leaf or solar panels, they have gas and a generator. until they don't |
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I wonder how long satellite could be used for relay. Depends on which satellites you mean and what happens. Without their course corrections geostationary sats like Directv and Dish Network will begin to wander in place, essentially becoming hard to find. Of course with no stationkeeping comms there would be no programming. The hamsats are piggybacked onto low earth orbiting sats which will eventually fall into the atmosphere if not corrected, but this can take months or years. The orbit would get erratic as well, making it useless. |
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power grid going down will case a panic ? most of the people in my AO had no power for anywhere between 7 days and 20 days after TS sandy. there was no widespread panic. https://www.ar15.com/forums/t_10_17/661411_Sandy____12_days_without_power__what_worked__what_didn_t____.html ar-jedi |
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? most of the people in my AO had no power for anywhere between 7 days and 20 days after TS sandy. there was no widespread panic. https://www.ar15.com/forums/t_10_17/661411_Sandy____12_days_without_power__what_worked__what_didn_t____.html ar-jedi Quoted:
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power grid going down will case a panic ? most of the people in my AO had no power for anywhere between 7 days and 20 days after TS sandy. there was no widespread panic. https://www.ar15.com/forums/t_10_17/661411_Sandy____12_days_without_power__what_worked__what_didn_t____.html ar-jedi Local short term outage with expectation of help & repair from outside the disaster zone vs national scale of unknown duration and (the perception of) no one to come to the rescue. Social breakdown is really a psychological phenomenon so the perception of the disaster has more impact then the dynamics of the actual event. People don't go feral when they know that most of the world is OK and things will get back to normal. Let them lose hope of a return to normal life and watch the change in their thinking. I'm speaking of 'average' people not criminals who seize any opportunity for criminal acts. |
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back in '05, down in Miami-Dade, when Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma came through back to back, a good part of the County was without power for almost two weeks. To my knowledge, no one starved or died as a result. No cell service, no phone service, no gas, no food stores, and still, folks survived.
If the mythical "SHTF" ever happens, it will likely be the event, not the aftermath that you need to worry about |
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back in '05, down in Miami-Dade, when Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma came through back to back, a good part of the County was without power for almost two weeks. To my knowledge, no one starved or died as a result. No cell service, no phone service, no gas, no food stores, and still, folks survived. They still had some support from the rest of the country. In a nationwide outage of some sort, that won't happen. In any case, it's the people factor that will be unpredictable. Look at New Orleans PD during Katrina. Completely ineffective because many of their assets were underwater, demoralized, criminal elements targeting them were more flexible and resilient to the effects of the disaster than they were. NOPD might not be a stellar example of an LE agency even before the disaster, but it's an example of what can happen when everything is in disarray. In an outage that affected the entire nation, things could get bad fast as the lawless and violent elements of society are not going to be controlled. Imagine the Ferguson or LA riots in every major US city, except without LE presence of any significance. |
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I have a knife I have had since I was 6. Its 37 years old and still works perfect.
My grandfathers shotgun still works perfectly and I have a few thousand rounds for it. My arms and legs are still functioning. Beyond that I can care less about most anything else breaking down. Just less junk to worry about. Although I do have back ups for my back ups for my back ups....
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Quoted: I hope there will be at least a 72 hour notice for SHTF. I will need at least that much time to find somebody to buy all my silver bullion. |
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Of course, the message from govment will be" Nothing is happening, our economy and the dollar are strong". Next day the banks are closed and panic begins Quoted:
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I hope there will be at least a 72 hour notice for SHTF. I will need at least that much time to find somebody to buy all my silver bullion. The proper term is "banking holiday".
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I will give my 2cents worth from a telecom perspective:
Lets start by saying that we have a nationwide power outage event. No power. in 12-18 hours all of the rural telephone sites will be down. This is the smaller boxes that have muxed telephone/dsl in rural areas. these are not generator backed, and survive only on the batteris they contain. in 18-26 hours, mos remote sites will be down, including many cell sites. These would be smaller brick and mortar buildings, and cell cites with a building and generator. With no fuel resupply, they might run for a day, then all that is left is how long the batteries last. in 24-48 hours, large telecom stations will cease to function. again, wiothou resupply, generator fuel will run out, and the batteries will not be far behind them. Once the remote buildings and main telecom stations go down, say goodbye to your internet and cell phone capabilities. MOST central offices route consumer data, beit from ISP's or cell traffic. 3 days tops, and that is with a good stash of fuel, and up to date well working batteries. |
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I will give my 2cents worth from a telecom perspective: Lets start by saying that we have a nationwide power outage event. No power. in 12-18 hours all of the rural telephone sites will be down. This is the smaller boxes that have muxed telephone/dsl in rural areas. these are not generator backed, and survive only on the batteris they contain. in 18-26 hours, mos remote sites will be down, including many cell sites. These would be smaller brick and mortar buildings, and cell cites with a building and generator. With no fuel resupply, they might run for a day, then all that is left is how long the batteries last. in 24-48 hours, large telecom stations will cease to function. again, wiothou resupply, generator fuel will run out, and the batteries will not be far behind them. Once the remote buildings and main telecom stations go down, say goodbye to your internet and cell phone capabilities. MOST central offices route consumer data, beit from ISP's or cell traffic. 3 days tops, and that is with a good stash of fuel, and up to date well working batteries. Ahhh....... That's the kinda data I was looking for!  I had a good grip on what happens with the stores and food supply, gasoline, and water. What's left would be Satellite for GPS and Internet. Any ideas on how long they'd last? I'm assuming the military/government would maintain the crucial ones they would need, but what about the rest?
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