Scott Manley commentary on booster 1062 loss.



SpaceX lost booster 1062 on Tuesday morning during a landing on A Shortfall of Gravitas, a landing leg visibly failed, and the booster fell over. So let's analyze the data we have and see if we can figure out why!

I wanted to share some updates:

- The primary factor driving the launch timing for Polaris Dawn is the splashdown weather within Dragon's limits. Unlike an ISS mission, we don’t have the option to delay long on orbit, so we must ensure the forecast is as favorable as possible… pic.twitter.com/3cKEjjVqvC

Jared Isaacman  (@rookisaacman) August 29, 2024

I wanted to share some updates:

- The primary factor driving the launch timing for Polaris Dawn is the splashdown weather within Dragon's limits. Unlike an ISS mission, we don’t have the option to delay long on orbit, so we must ensure the forecast is as favorable as possible before we launch.

- We sincerely apologize to those who have traveled to see our launch and have faced delays. Many of our guests were able to witness 1062’s final Starlink mission. While it’s unfortunate she didn’t stick the last landing, the cause is well understood, and she successfully completed her mission. 1062 had an incredible career, flying many notable missions, including Inspiration4 and AX-1. It’s remarkable to think about the life this amazing rocket led from the day she first rolled off the assembly line.

- When we are ready to launch, we will be working within the same window as previously briefed.

- The crew remains in quarantine, staying productive, keeping fit, and ready to launch within approximately 30 hours of receiving a favorable forecast.

Space exploration demands patience, resilience, and teamwork. We are deeply grateful for the dedication of everyone involved and for the support of those who believe in our mission. Together, we are pushing the boundaries of what’s possible and continuing humanity’s journey to the stars.

Good video. As a side note, those pneumatic struts are quite delicate. It was a year or so ago that one of the weighted bags from the tophat at Port Canaveral had a malfunction on one of its winches and one of the bags free-spooled all the way down and bounced of one of the landing leg struts and 'bent' it. Since it's made of carbon fiber, it couldn't be bent back to collapse it. The deck crew had to cut it off with a sawzall.
Although the strut does the job it is designed to do, they are quite frail when it comes to side loading etc.
It's not the first time one of them has failed, as a handful of them have had to be removed from booster the get the legs folded up for transporting horizontally.

If SpaceX has to beef them up, there will be a weight penalty to do so, and as it stands the Falcon 9 cannot afford to put on any more weight. They are flying them at max gross 99% of the time as it is.

Latest forecasts continue to show unfavorable weather conditions in the areas along Florida’s coast where Dragon would splash down upon returning from space. Once teams identify the next best opportunity for launch and return of the Polaris Dawn mission, we’ll provide an update.… pic.twitter.com/f0ZJpcbQf7

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) August 30, 2024

It is that time of year...

Crew-9 change confirmed, relating to the uncrewed Starliner CFT return.

"NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov will launch no earlier than Tuesday, Sept. 24, on the agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station. NASA astronauts… pic.twitter.com/YlQv63Z245

Chris Bergin - NSF  (@NASASpaceflight) August 30, 2024

Crew-9 change confirmed, relating to the uncrewed Starliner CFT return.

"NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov will launch no earlier than Tuesday, Sept. 24, on the agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station. NASA astronauts Zena Cardman and Stephanie Wilson, previously announced as crewmates, are eligible for reassignment on a future mission."

Interesting.  I did not expect NASA to kick off the female commander for a white male.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2024/08/30/nasas-spacex-crew-9-changes-ahead-of-september-launch/


NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 Changes Ahead of September Launch


NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Aleksandr Gorbunov will launch no earlier than Tuesday, Sept. 24, on the agency’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station. NASA astronauts Zena Cardman and Stephanie Wilson, previously announced as crewmates, are eligible for reassignment on a future mission.

Hague and Gorbunov will fly to the space station as commander and pilot, respectively, as part of a two-crew member flight aboard a SpaceX Dragon.

The updated crew complement follows NASA’s decision to return the agency’s Boeing Crew Flight Test uncrewed and launch Crew-9 with two unoccupied seats. NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who launched aboard the Starliner spacecraft in June, will fly home with Hague and Gorbunov in February 2025.

The decision to fly Hague was made by NASA chief astronaut Joe Acaba at the agency’s Johnson Space Center in Houston. Acaba had to balance flying a NASA crew member with previous spaceflight experience to command the flight, while ensuring NASA maintains an integrated crew with a Roscosmos cosmonaut who can operate their critical systems for continued, safe station operations.

“While we’ve changed crew before for a variety of reasons, downsizing crew for this flight was another tough decision to adjust to given that the crew has trained as a crew of four,” said Acaba. “I have the utmost confidence in all our crew, who have been excellent throughout training for the mission. Zena and Stephanie will continue to assist their crewmates ahead of launch, and they exemplify what it means to be a professional astronaut.”

The agency will share reassignment details for Cardman and Wilson when available.

“I am deeply proud of our entire crew,” said Cardman, “and I am confident Nick and Alex will step into their roles with excellence. All four of us remain dedicated to the success of this mission, and Stephanie and I look forward to flying when the time is right.”

Wilson added, “I know Nick and Alex will do a great job with their work aboard the International Space Station as part of Expedition 72.”

With 203 days logged in space, this will be Hague’s third launch and second mission to the orbiting laboratory. During his first launch in March 2018, Hague and his crewmate, Roscosmos’ Alexey Ovchinin, experienced a rocket booster failure, resulting in an in-flight, post-launch abort, ballistic re-entry, and safe landing in their Soyuz MS-10 spacecraft. Five months later, Hague launched aboard Soyuz MS-12 and served as a flight engineer aboard the space station during Expeditions 59 and 60. Hague conducted three spacewalks to upgrade space station power systems and install a docking adapter for commercial spacecraft. An active-duty colonel in the U.S. Space Force, Hague completed a developmental rotation at the Defense Department, and served as the Space Force’s director of test and evaluation from 2020 to 2022. In August 2022, Hague resumed duties at NASA, working on the Boeing Starliner Program until this flight assignment. Follow @astrohague on X and Instagram.

This will be Gorbunov’s first trip to space and the station. Born in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk region, Russia, he studied engineering with qualifications in spacecraft and upper stages from the Moscow Aviation Institute. Gorbunov graduated from the military department with a specialty in operating and repairing aircraft, helicopters, and aircraft engines. Before his selection as a cosmonaut in 2018, he worked as an engineer for Rocket Space Corp. Energia and supported cargo spacecraft launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome.

Hague and Gorbonov will become members of the Expedition 72 crew aboard the station. They will join Wilmore, Williams, fellow NASA astronaut Don Pettit, and Roscosmos cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Ivan Vagner conducting scientific research and maintenance activities into the station’s 24th year of continuous human presence.

WTH ???

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Tipover....explosion...everything burned except bottom.

Cover possible failure point.

video

RIP B1062 pic.twitter.com/xJWAuqohv5

Jerry Pike  (@JerryPikePhoto) August 30, 2024

What a mess!

They have been running these boosters and barges hard and it shows.

Scott Manley said that it would be nice if SpaceX would sell the scrap as keychains and whatnot. I wholeheartedly agree.

I am grateful that no humans or animals were harmed in this rough landing.

Look at the engine nozzles touching the deck (Post #13).  Is that impact damage from the actual landing that was reported/suggested on another forum?

Is that the same side as the reported strut failure?

That's pretty impressive.  I would have expected more damage to the ship.  Looks like it just needs some rust removal and maybe some paint.

Gonna need something stronger than duct tape and JB Welb.

That is what some considered a reasonable outcome.

?LAUNCH ALERT?

Tomorrow morning, SLD 45 will support the Falcon 9 Starlink 8-10 launch.

The launch window opens Aug. 31 at 01:39 EDT (05:39 UTC).

T-0 may vary.

Hazard and airspace closure areas at https://t.co/nWgTbtgMnB

Live launch coverage here: https://t.co/Pmy9jg8du3 pic.twitter.com/MHfImf89GC

Space Launch Delta 45  (@SLDelta45) August 31, 2024

Targeting back-to-back Falcon 9 launches tonight from California and Florida ? https://t.co/SpsRVRsvz1

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) August 31, 2024

Some music for the upcoming launch.

SpaceX pushed back the planned launch time of the Starlink 9-5 mission at Vandenberg Space Force Base by about two hours. Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket is now targeting 11:54 p.m. PDT (2:54 a.m. EDT, 0654 UTC).

Read more: https://t.co/pxFTkDDAlr

Spaceflight Now  (@SpaceflightNow) August 31, 2024

Falcon 9 delivers 42 @Starlink satellites, including 26 with Direct to Cell capabilities, to low-Earth orbit in back-to-back launches from Florida and California pic.twitter.com/1eaiEn64f7

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) August 31, 2024

Nice.

visitor at Port Canaveral

ArianeGroup's ship, Canopée, has arrived in Port Canaveral. This is the world's first hybrid industrial cargo ship powered by wind.

Canopée is here to deliver ESA's third European Service Module (ESM-3) for NASA's Artemis III mission.

Reporting for @SuperclusterHQ pic.twitter.com/I2Mnseqnfw

Jenny Hautmann  (@JennyHPhoto) September 2, 2024

Cool.

Cool ship.  Note, however, that the sails are only intended "to reduce fuel consumption by as much as 30 per cent". From this article:

"The sailing units will serve only as the ship's auxiliary propulsion as the primary propulsive power will be provided by two 3,480kW engines driving controllable-pitch propellers. The main engines can run on either diesel or LNG..."

It's not as cool looking of a boat but the Pegasus Barge will be coming through soon if it hasn't already.

Floating through the week with @NASA's Pegasus barge.

Soon, this iconic vessel will make history by carrying #Artemis II, III, and IV hardware at the same time.

Check out photos from the recent launch vehicle stage adapter move at @NASA_Marshall:
\uD83D\uDCF8 https://t.co/g3TFXoZXMc pic.twitter.com/hCHJ56ewos

— NASA_SLS (@NASA_SLS) August 27, 2024

On board is the Artemis 2 LVSA, Artemis 3 boat tail and the Artemis 4 engine section.

After recently departing from Marshall, the @NASA_SLS launch vehicle stage adapter for Artemis II arrived in New Orleans via the agency's Pegasus barge.

There it was joined by hardware for @NASAArtemis III and IV and will soon head to @NASAKennedy.

MORE: https://t.co/MJcdHzjMEF pic.twitter.com/9wk4IacJoY

— NASA Marshall (@NASA_Marshall) September 1, 2024

Mission:   Falcon 9, Starlink 8-11

1)  Mission Description:  "A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch another batch of Starlink V2 Mini internet satellites. The Falcon 9’s first stage booster will land on a drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean."    SpaceFlightNow source

2)  Launch window:   8:35 AM EDT - 12:31 PM  EDT (5 September 2024).   Launch now scheduled for 11:33 AM EDT.

3)  Launch site:   SLC-40,  Florida

4)  Launch direction:  Northeast

5)  Webcast viewing option:



6)  Observation comments:   None.  

7)  Launch preparations:

a.  Boats heading out:

Signet Warhorse I + JRTI departed PC on Sep 2 @ 2:19pm ET




Bob departed PC on Sep 2 @ 1:28pm ET

Source:  NASASpaceFlight.com

b.  Satellites:  Previously provided.

c.  Ready for launch:  


Credit:  SpaceFlightNow.com

d.  Navigation Warnings:


Source:  NASASpaceFlight.com

8)  First stage return/ocean recovery/disposal:    Recovery on drone ship JRTI.

9)  Launch to deployment events/timeline:    

Hours:Minutes:Seconds after lift-off.  Times approximate.  

00:01:10   Max Q (Moment of peak mechanical stress on the rocket)
00:02:25   1st stage main engine cutoff (MECO)
00:02:29   1st and 2nd stages separate
00:02:36   2nd stage engine starts (SES-1)
00:02:59   Fairing separation
00:06:11   1st stage entry burn begins
00:06:34   1st stage entry burn ends
00:07:59   1st stage landing burn begins
00:08:22   1st stage landing
00:08:38   2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO-1)
00:54:48   2nd stage engine starts (SES-2)
00:54:50   2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO-2)
01:03:42   Starlink satellites deploy

10)  Orbit insertion:  291 kilometers (perigee) x 303 kilometers (apogee) at 53 degree inclination

Unverified comments that the Starlink 8-11 launch has been scrubbed for 4 September 2024.

Now scheduled for 5 September 2024.

the link from X says live stream Tomorrow  Sep 5 at 12:02PM EDT

ETA: Confirmed by SpaceX on X. Standing down due to Unfavorable Booster Recovery wx

Video at YT link says it's scrubbed for the day.

Mission:  Falcon 9, NROL-113

1)  Mission description:  "A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the NROL-113 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). This is the third launch of the NRO’s “proliferated architecture.” Following stage separation, the first stage booster, B1063, will touch down on the SpaceX droneship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You.’" Source

2)  Launch window:   8:20 PM PDT (5 September 2024)

3)  Launch site:   SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base, California

4)  Launch direction:   Southeasterly

5)  Webcast viewing options:



6)  Observation comments:  None.
 
7)  Launch preparations:

a.  Boats heading out.

indsay C + OCISLY departed PoLB on Sep 4 @ 6:02am PT / 9:02am ET


Go Beyond departed PoLB on Sep 4 @ 7:14am PT / 10:14am ET

Source:  NASASpaceFlight.com

b.  Satellites:  Not available

c.  Ready for launch:  



d.  Navigation warning:


Source:  NASASpaceFlight.com

8)  First stage return/ocean recovery/disposal:    Recovery on drone ship OCISLY.

9)  Launch to deployment events/timeline:      

Hours:Minutes:Seconds after lift-off.  Times approximate.

00:01:06   Max Q
00:02:26   1st stage main engine cutoff (MECO)
00:02:30   1st and 2nd stages separate
00:02:36   2nd stage engine starts (SES-1)
00:03:00   Fairing deployment
00:06:13   1st stage entry burn begins
00:06:33   1st stage entry burn ends
00:08:00   1st stage landing burn begins
00:08:22   1st stage landing
00:08:40   2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO-1)
00:53:47   2nd stage engine starts (SES-2)
00:53:49   2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO-2)

10)  Orbit destination:  Likely similar to a 70 degree inclination Starlink orbit.

Ooh an NRO launch. Those always get my attention.

Ah, good.  A western horizon jellyfish!


I can see them from my front porch in Southern Nevada.  Gorgeous with the sun refracting through the plume.


Best,
JBR

so, 2 Spacex launches today?

Maybe one out of Vandy.

My first check yesterday shows no jellyfish on the NROL-113 launch.  It is well past nautical twilight so too late.  I will check again later to verify that.

If you provide a nearby city I will check for your location.

How about Oceanside (N. San Diego County)?

Pahrump, NV
About an hour west of Las Vegas.

Even with no jellyfish, I get to see stage separation and second stage ignition on a dark night.

Thanks.

Best,
JBR

7:50 PM PDT is about the latest it could launch to be sunlit this time of year.   You could go out and see if the second stage plume is lit by the second stage engine.  It likely would be much fainter.


San Diego area look for stage separation at 8:22:30 PM PDT at 298/12 (azimuth/elevation).  Closest approach and best chance to see engine lit plume is around 8:24:30 PM PDT at 231/47.

Pahrump NV stage separation at 8:22:30 PM PDT at 237/6

The times assume a launch at 8:20:00  PM PDT.  If the launch is xy seconds later...add xy seconds to the times listed.  Always allow some error in time and location.

This launch is going to about 70 degrees inclination so it will track a little west of the ascent data I used so the elevation could be a few degrees lower.

Coastal clouds are consolidating around San Diego.  I don't have much hope but will grab a still camera from the safe anyway.

All systems are looking good, weather is favorable, and propellant load is about to begin for today’s launch of the @NatReconOfc 's NROL-113 mission from California ? https://t.co/zW4oGtw9x7

SpaceX  (@SpaceX) September 6, 2024

I can see several stars including Polaris.  Maybe I'll get something.  3 minutes to go.

ETA I saw the last several seconds of stage 1, shutdown, and stage 2 startup.  Way too dim to photograph anything with what I had in hand, but very satisfying to watch.  The RE burn was about due west of me.  Then I watched stage 2 go off into the haze to the south.

Looks like a good landing.

Suprisingly, I had a view from South San Jose over Mt. Umhunum. 😜

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