User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 10:47:15 AM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: Thanks guys. Agreed with all of the above - it's looking more and more like we might pull this off. But I hate even saying that because right now is when we need to be head-down and fighting life our lives depend on it. Don't stop swimming just because the coast guard rescue boat is within sight. You are correct. Regardless of polls, we still have to execute. I think we are doing that. There has been a big push amongst pundits on the conservative side for people to vote early. The GOP ground game is much better than it was in 2020 as well. We barely lost 2020, and I think we learned from it. But regardless, fucking go vote people!! |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 10:49:43 AM EST
[#2]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 11:17:32 AM EST
[#3]
Trump has GOT to start hammering the dems on their response to the disasters going on right now.
Like, rush social media ads out with a “remember in November” CTA. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 11:20:24 AM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By pale_pony: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/27704/Joker_jpg-3344678.JPG Oklahoma, being a solid red state, you could have temporarily moved to a swing state in an attempt to make a positive difference in November. That’s “voting harder” |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 1:15:01 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By macman37: Trump has GOT to start hammering the dems on their response to the disasters going on right now. Like, rush social media ads out with a “remember in November” CTA. He is hammering it on social media:
...but I certainly wouldn't mind seeing ads, too. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 1:17:49 PM EST
[#6]
On the Arizona front:
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 1:19:59 PM EST
[#7]
Halperin has been shooting for accuracy in this cycle more than spin...and what he's "heard" has become headlines not too long after so far. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 1:25:18 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
Halperin has been shooting for accuracy in this cycle more than spin...and what he's "heard" has become headlines not too long after so far. Halperin is a Newsmax staple and you are correct. |
|
|
|
GA, USA
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 1:29:22 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman: You are correct. Regardless of polls, we still have to execute. I think we are doing that. There has been a big push amongst pundits on the conservative side for people to vote early. The GOP ground game is much better than it was in 2020 as well. We barely lost 2020, and I think we learned from it. But regardless, fucking go vote people!! Absolutely, go vote the first day you can in your AO (the wife and I will vote 10/15 when early voting opens up.) Waiting to vote on election day will result in failure this time around not to mention lines and waiting while shenanigan's are played out. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 2:11:10 PM EST
[Last Edit: BuckeyeRifleman]
[#10]
MI just flipped to Trump in the RCP average with new polls from Quinnipiac. That new poll shows Trump +4. They are a left leaning poll and had Harris +5 in mid Sept.
They also just came out with a WI Trump +2. They had Harris +1 in mid Sept. Their PA poll still has Harris up +2, but they had her +5 mid Sept. There is definitely a late swing toward Trump, and I think the VP debate was the shift. Traditionally VP debates don’t matter, but I think this time it did. Vance was very effective with the point that Harris has been in office for the past 3.5 years, and he completely shattered the media narrative that he was a weird extremist. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 2:30:29 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman: There is definitely a late swing toward Trump, and I think the VP debate was the shift. Traditionally VP debates don’t matter, but I think this time it did. Vance was very effective with the point that Harris has been in office for the past 3.5 years, and he completely shattered the media narrative that he was a weird extremist. I would posit a different explanation: There was never a move towards Kamala, at least not a significant one. Response bias is a thing. Pollsters reach out to people and only a fraction of the people hit up actually respond. In general democrat leaners are much more eager to talk to pollsters than Republican leaning ones, and that's especially true in the immediate aftermath of good news. When Biden got dropped his voters were especially tight lipped because he was clearly a disaster. When they dropped him, it bred excitement in the already committed democrat types, at least briefly. Suddenly they were a lot more eager to talk to pollsters, thus they made up an even more outsized portion of responses than normal. Voila, a "bump" for Kamala...except the bump never got beyond 5 points and she needed at least double that for any polling movement to be real or to realistically increase her chances v. Biden. I think the assassination attempt moved the needle a little bit...but nothing else really has. What you're seeing is that response bias dying out and reality coming in. This is on top of the fact that the Trump voter is notoriously hard to poll. As reluctant as normie Republican types are to discuss things with pollsters, working class and rural folks are even harder to poll. Response rates are in the single digits. They frequently abandon online questionnaires in the middle of them. Etc. This is one reason why polling has been so off of reality on election day for so long and why some states are near impossible to poll properly. So what I think you're actually seeing here is reality poking through. The entire "convention bump" was an exercise in gaslighting by the mainstream but it didn't really move the needle. Her dedicated voters were just chattier then, and they're getting less chatty now. Look hard at the way they make up their samples and you can see that they're not getting close to what the electorate actually looks like in some of these states. What we are seeing is that Kamala is losing ground and has been for some time. And will likely lose more ground as we near the finish line. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 2:37:13 PM EST
[#12]
Just as an example of how fucked the polls are, look at this:
Looking at the demographics there is no way that Harris is down in WI and MI and yet still up in PA. Odds are that none of those polls are accurate. But what it does show is a general trend of how much trouble she's in in all those places. Biden was much further ahead at the same point and still only pulled out a narrow win. She doesn't have the kind of margins necessary to pull off the win on election day. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 2:54:48 PM EST
[Last Edit: BuckeyeRifleman]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: I would posit a different explanation: There was never a move towards Kamala, at least not a significant one. Response bias is a thing. Pollsters reach out to people and only a fraction of the people hit up actually respond. In general democrat leaners are much more eager to talk to pollsters than Republican leaning ones, and that's especially true in the immediate aftermath of good news. When Biden got dropped his voters were especially tight lipped because he was clearly a disaster. When they dropped him, it bred excitement in the already committed democrat types, at least briefly. Suddenly they were a lot more eager to talk to pollsters, thus they made up an even more outsized portion of responses than normal. Voila, a "bump" for Kamala...except the bump never got beyond 5 points and she needed at least double that for any polling movement to be real or to realistically increase her chances v. Biden. I think the assassination attempt moved the needle a little bit...but nothing else really has. What you're seeing is that response bias dying out and reality coming in. This is on top of the fact that the Trump voter is notoriously hard to poll. As reluctant as normie Republican types are to discuss things with pollsters, working class and rural folks are even harder to poll. Response rates are in the single digits. They frequently abandon online questionnaires in the middle of them. Etc. This is one reason why polling has been so off of reality on election day for so long and why some states are near impossible to poll properly. So what I think you're actually seeing here is reality poking through. The entire "convention bump" was an exercise in gaslighting by the mainstream but it didn't really move the needle. Her dedicated voters were just chattier then, and they're getting less chatty now. Look hard at the way they make up their samples and you can see that they're not getting close to what the electorate actually looks like in some of these states. What we are seeing is that Kamala is losing ground and has been for some time. And will likely lose more ground as we near the finish line. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Originally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman: There is definitely a late swing toward Trump, and I think the VP debate was the shift. Traditionally VP debates don’t matter, but I think this time it did. Vance was very effective with the point that Harris has been in office for the past 3.5 years, and he completely shattered the media narrative that he was a weird extremist. I would posit a different explanation: There was never a move towards Kamala, at least not a significant one. Response bias is a thing. Pollsters reach out to people and only a fraction of the people hit up actually respond. In general democrat leaners are much more eager to talk to pollsters than Republican leaning ones, and that's especially true in the immediate aftermath of good news. When Biden got dropped his voters were especially tight lipped because he was clearly a disaster. When they dropped him, it bred excitement in the already committed democrat types, at least briefly. Suddenly they were a lot more eager to talk to pollsters, thus they made up an even more outsized portion of responses than normal. Voila, a "bump" for Kamala...except the bump never got beyond 5 points and she needed at least double that for any polling movement to be real or to realistically increase her chances v. Biden. I think the assassination attempt moved the needle a little bit...but nothing else really has. What you're seeing is that response bias dying out and reality coming in. This is on top of the fact that the Trump voter is notoriously hard to poll. As reluctant as normie Republican types are to discuss things with pollsters, working class and rural folks are even harder to poll. Response rates are in the single digits. They frequently abandon online questionnaires in the middle of them. Etc. This is one reason why polling has been so off of reality on election day for so long and why some states are near impossible to poll properly. So what I think you're actually seeing here is reality poking through. The entire "convention bump" was an exercise in gaslighting by the mainstream but it didn't really move the needle. Her dedicated voters were just chattier then, and they're getting less chatty now. Look hard at the way they make up their samples and you can see that they're not getting close to what the electorate actually looks like in some of these states. What we are seeing is that Kamala is losing ground and has been for some time. And will likely lose more ground as we near the finish line. You’re probably not wrong. It’s probably a combination of all of it. But I do think the VP debate played a role. When all the focus groups of undecided voters, even on CNN, all came away liking Vance and liking what he had to say, it probably moved the needle a tick at least. All that said, when Quinnipiac was 100% errored to favor Biden by 7.6 points in 2020 and now they show Trump winning in critical swing states, that’s some real bad news for Harris. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 3:09:36 PM EST
[#14]
If Trump takes the states he's supposed to (North Carolina, I'm looking at you) but doesn't win in Wisconsin or Michigan, he absolutely has to take PA.
No PA, no White House. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 3:12:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: macman37]
[#15]
I seriously would not be surprised if Trump took MI again.
There is just no energy here at all for Dems in general, Harris in particular. They are spamming the hell out of us with ads and I still don’t see any enthusiasm. The best they can do - and this is pathetic - is the huge series of “I was a Trump voter and now I’m voting for Kamala” ads that I’m sure you’re all seeing too. I know, anecdotal and all. But it’s like they’re deliberately keeping quiet. We’re a month out from the election and even Whitler is freaking silent. |
|
|
|
MO, USA
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 3:20:51 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dam17er: J_Dubs777 always makes very thoughtful posts, regardless of the shit-slinging edgelords in GD. Very much appreciated. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 3:37:21 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman: You’re probably not wrong. It’s probably a combination of all of it. But I do think the VP debate played a role. When all the focus groups of undecided voters, even on CNN, all came away liking Vance and liking what he had to say, it probably moved the needle a tick at least. All that said, when Quinnipiac was 100% errored to favor Biden by 7.6 points in 2020 and now they show Trump winning in critical swing states, that’s some real bad news for Harris. IMO, the VP debate was an example of unforced error on the part of the Harris campaign. It was obvious that Waltz only prepped for a combative edgey Vance. He didn't know how to react when Vance complemented and agreed with him. The pres debate was an unforced error on Trump's part. He took the bait every time Harris poked his ego and got off message. I think the next set of unforced errors will be around Israel - Gaza - Lebanon - Iran. I suspect the Biden admin will simultaneously try to limit arms to Israel (trying to shore up MI), and give them a green light for deeper incursions (motivate the Jewish vote). It will go about as well as the Afghan withdrawal. Question is, how will Trump respond. |
|
|
|
MO, USA
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 3:52:46 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: Thanks guys. Agreed with all of the above - it's looking more and more like we might pull this off. But I hate even saying that because right now is when we need to be head-down and fighting life our lives depend on it. Don't stop swimming just because the coast guard rescue boat is within sight. |
|
|
GA, USA
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 4:17:02 PM EST
[Last Edit: sabrev65]
[#19]
In a sane world, character & issues decide elections. I don't believe we live in a sane world. I have little trust in the election process.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 4:24:40 PM EST
[#20]
The real fight will be with the Deep Stated fuckers that tried to frame him as a Russian spy.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 4:41:09 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Just as an example of how fucked the polls are, look at this:
Looking at the demographics there is no way that Harris is down in WI and MI and yet still up in PA. Odds are that none of those polls are accurate. But what it does show is a general trend of how much trouble she's in in all those places. Biden was much further ahead at the same point and still only pulled out a narrow win. She doesn't have the kind of margins necessary to pull off the win on election day. I'm also skeptical of Casey winning by 8 in pennsylvania, with as much money as the Republicans have poured into McCormick I don't see Casey winning by eight solid points in a very tight battleground state. Casey may very well win reelection in fact I'd probably guess that will be the case but it will be a lot closer than eight points. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 4:41:51 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Wobblin-Goblin: If Trump takes the states he's supposed to (North Carolina, I'm looking at you) but doesn't win in Wisconsin or Michigan, he absolutely has to take PA. No PA, no White House. Win Pennsylvania and he doesn't even need Arizona either. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/9/2024 4:47:46 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyomingnick: I'm also skeptical of Casey winning by 8 in pennsylvania, with as much money as the Republicans have poured into McCormick I don't see Casey winning by eight solid points in a very tight battleground state. Casey may very well win reelection in fact I'd probably guess that will be the case but it will be a lot closer than eight points. Ballot splitting is exceptionally rare in the last several cycles. If Trump wins, Casey most likely loses. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 7:49:50 AM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1911SFOREVER: The real fight will be with the Deep Stated fuckers that tried to frame him as a Russian spy. Devlin Barrett has already moved to the NYT in anticipation of this. They have a scheme cooked up and are waiting to execute it. The refloating of muh-Russia recently along with the hacking we've heard about is just the beginning. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 8:02:28 AM EST
[#25]
I think they cheated in 20.
I think they’re going to have to cheat harder in 24 if they cant find a sufficiently competent nutjob to whack Trump. The GWOT counter terror intel behemoth is pivoting towards domestic threats like election deniers and threats to democracy. They dont care about the cheating being obvious, because they’re going to come down hard on the first big protests about it and set the tone for the future. I really, really, really hope I’m retarded and wrong. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 8:30:16 AM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: I think Harris takes Michigan. The state is run by women Yes, but the Muslims are unhappy we are not disavowing Israel. That is why all the money is being poured into Lebanon currently. Hamtramck outlawed the flying of LGTBBQ flags in city limits just recently also. I could see them going right... |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 8:44:44 AM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gotuonpaper: Yes, but the Muslims are unhappy we are not disavowing Israel. That is why all the money is being poured into Lebanon currently. Hamtramck outlawed the flying of LGTBBQ flags in city limits just recently also. I could see them going right... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gotuonpaper: Originally Posted By StevenH: I think Harris takes Michigan. The state is run by women Yes, but the Muslims are unhappy we are not disavowing Israel. That is why all the money is being poured into Lebanon currently. Hamtramck outlawed the flying of LGTBBQ flags in city limits just recently also. I could see them going right... 300,000 Arabs/Mulims/adjacents in Michigan. If they stay home it could have an impact. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:03:51 AM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: 300,000 Arabs/Mulims/adjacents in Michigan. If they stay home it could have an impact. Considering FJB only won by a little over 150k votes in 2020, half of those not showing up would have a significant impact. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:06:59 AM EST
[#29]
So I'd be skeptical of that tweet except right now the Harris campaign is most definitely parachuting in as many surrogates as they can into Michigan to try and gin up the black vote, especially with black men. I do not believe this will work. But it again leans toward my hypothesis that PA is a must-win for Harris. Note that Wisconsin isn't mentioned...likely because they think it's not within their reach. Without PA she's toast. Problem is that Wisconsin, PA, and Michigan tend to vote together. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:10:55 AM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#30]
Again remember that Emerson...and practically every other poll out there...underestimated Trump's support. On average it was between 5-7 points nationwide in both 2016 and 2020. Almost all of these are states where Biden was ahead at the same point in 2020, sometimes by double digits. I don't believe the race is that close. I think Trump is comfortably ahead. That doesn't mean don't vote, it means vote harder. It would also mean that Trump has a good shot of winning the popular vote. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:21:47 AM EST
[Last Edit: 0002s]
[#31]
From the beginning of this whole election.
What was it that were causing people to flee from Biden so fast that 'the powers to be' saw fit to throw in the mix, the only person that was in the administration, that was disliked more than Biden? Now, if the above is true, what was causing people to flee from Biden was the issue(s). Ask yourself, what has the most disliked person, thrown in without a vote, brought to the table, that would change people's opinions of why they were fleeing Biden in the first place. If anything Harris has caused additional people the flee the current administrations train wreck. There reason you know she's failing is she is constantly attempting to change her approach and message. If you are truly ahead, you don't do this. She is grasping for anything that can get her traction with Muslims, Minorities, Suburban women and any white male who doesn't suck dick. The problem is each time she appeals to one, she pisses off the rest. Then there is the economy. On the other hand, Trump has remained constant in his approach and message. Unless he is completely stupid AND being fed bad information, that he 100% believes, he'd be changing his message in an attempt to save his campaign. He's not. You decide. The Media's constant bullshit, in an attempt to keep this a horse race, AND get her elected hasn't changed this one bit. The final question is, what do they know that we can't and what level of cheat to they have that we can't imagine. Currently, the numbers needed will be larger than mathematically possible for the cheat. It's not going to be COVID easy this time around. Especially with their core minority base and suburban women leaving them. Each base vote that leave requires two for the cheat to work. Math is a cruel mistress when you're attempting to suspend mathematical realities. We will know the outcome in a few weeks. About 1.5 weeks out the polls will tighten up and you'll get a sense of the outcome and pollsters need to be seen as creditable at the end. -jm2c |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:22:49 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Ballot splitting is exceptionally rare in the last several cycles. If Trump wins, Casey most likely loses. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Originally Posted By wyomingnick: I'm also skeptical of Casey winning by 8 in pennsylvania, with as much money as the Republicans have poured into McCormick I don't see Casey winning by eight solid points in a very tight battleground state. Casey may very well win reelection in fact I'd probably guess that will be the case but it will be a lot closer than eight points. Ballot splitting is exceptionally rare in the last several cycles. If Trump wins, Casey most likely loses. I believe it's possible that Trump could win very narrowly and have Casey win. Similar to 2020 in North Carolina with Trump/ governor's race. But that's only going to happen if it's very close certainly not by eight points. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:25:33 AM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 0002s: From the beginning of this whole election. What was it that were causing people to flee from Biden so fast that 'the powers to be' saw fit to throw in the mix, the only person that was in the administration, that was disliked more than Biden? Now, if the above is true, what was causing people to flee from Biden was the issue(s). Ask yourself, what has the most disliked person, thrown in without a vote, brought to the table, that would change people's opinions of why they were fleeing Biden in the first place. If anything Harris has caused additional people the flee the current administrations train wreck. There reason you know she's failing is she is constantly attempting to change her approach and message. If you are truly ahead, you don't do this. She is grasping for anything that can get her traction with Muslims, Minorities, Suburban women and any white male who doesn't suck dick. The problem is each time she appeals to one, she pisses off the rest. Then there is the economy. On the other hand, Trump has remained constant in his approach and message. Unless he is completely stupid AND being fed bad information, that he 100% believes, he'd be changing his message in an attempt to save his campaign. He's not. You decide. The Media's constant bullshit, in an attempt to keep this a horse race, AND get her elected hasn't changed this one bit. The final question is, what do they know that we can't and what level of cheat to they have that we can't imagine. Currently, the numbers needed will be larger than mathematically possible for the cheat. It's not going to be COVID easy this time around. Especially with their core minority base and suburban women leaving them. Each base vote that leave requires two for the cheat to work. Math is a cruel mistress when you're attempting to suspend mathematical realities. We will know the outcome in a few weeks. About 1.5 weeks out the polls will tighten up and you'll get a sense of the outcome and pollsters need to be seen as creditable at the end. -jm2c Polls have already been shifting toward Trump very very slightly. Not enough, but they are moving in the right direction. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:51:31 AM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: 300,000 Arabs/Mulims/adjacents in Michigan. If they stay home it could have an impact. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Originally Posted By gotuonpaper: Originally Posted By StevenH: I think Harris takes Michigan. The state is run by women Yes, but the Muslims are unhappy we are not disavowing Israel. That is why all the money is being poured into Lebanon currently. Hamtramck outlawed the flying of LGTBBQ flags in city limits just recently also. I could see them going right... 300,000 Arabs/Mulims/adjacents in Michigan. If they stay home it could have an impact. In'Shallah |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:57:15 AM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
Halperin has been shooting for accuracy in this cycle more than spin...and what he's "heard" has become headlines not too long after so far. 2020 was very close. Whether true or not, Biden had historical turn out that barely edged out Trump in extra innings. Trump hasn't lost any support. Harris is nowhere near maintaining the same level of support Biden had in 2020. The election won't even be close. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:59:02 AM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyomingnick: I believe it's possible that Trump could win very narrowly and have Casey win. Similar to 2020 in North Carolina with Trump/ governor's race. But that's only going to happen if it's very close certainly not by eight points. That is possible...but we saw in 2020 multiple senate races forecast with that kind of spread and on the day of the vote the candidate tracked dead on with Trump's numbers. Ron Johnson is one example. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 9:59:04 AM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyomingnick: Polls have already been shifting toward Trump very very slightly. Not enough, but they are moving in the right direction. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyomingnick: Originally Posted By 0002s: From the beginning of this whole election. What was it that were causing people to flee from Biden so fast that 'the powers to be' saw fit to throw in the mix, the only person that was in the administration, that was disliked more than Biden? Now, if the above is true, what was causing people to flee from Biden was the issue(s). Ask yourself, what has the most disliked person, thrown in without a vote, brought to the table, that would change people's opinions of why they were fleeing Biden in the first place. If anything Harris has caused additional people the flee the current administrations train wreck. There reason you know she's failing is she is constantly attempting to change her approach and message. If you are truly ahead, you don't do this. She is grasping for anything that can get her traction with Muslims, Minorities, Suburban women and any white male who doesn't suck dick. The problem is each time she appeals to one, she pisses off the rest. Then there is the economy. On the other hand, Trump has remained constant in his approach and message. Unless he is completely stupid AND being fed bad information, that he 100% believes, he'd be changing his message in an attempt to save his campaign. He's not. You decide. The Media's constant bullshit, in an attempt to keep this a horse race, AND get her elected hasn't changed this one bit. The final question is, what do they know that we can't and what level of cheat to they have that we can't imagine. Currently, the numbers needed will be larger than mathematically possible for the cheat. It's not going to be COVID easy this time around. Especially with their core minority base and suburban women leaving them. Each base vote that leave requires two for the cheat to work. Math is a cruel mistress when you're attempting to suspend mathematical realities. We will know the outcome in a few weeks. About 1.5 weeks out the polls will tighten up and you'll get a sense of the outcome and pollsters need to be seen as creditable at the end. -jm2c Polls have already been shifting toward Trump very very slightly. Not enough, but they are moving in the right direction. The same polls that said Hillary would sweep the election? |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 10:00:30 AM EST
[#38]
At the end of the day, the fundamentals of the election are good for Trump.
Between inflation, immigration, world chaos, etc. Trump is the better answer, and deep down, even though they might not admit it out loud, lot of people know it. Even Abortion, which Harris has an edge on clearly, people know team Trump is right. It’s now a state issue, and even conservative states are loosening their restrictions via ballot initiative. The notion that the GOP is going to pass a national abortion ban is patently false. Everyone knows that would be political suicide. “Joy” isn’t a real winning issue, it’s completely hollow, and everyone knows it. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 10:05:03 AM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman: At the end of the day, the fundamentals of the election are good for Trump. Between inflation, immigration, world chaos, etc. Trump is the better answer, and deep down, even though they might not admit it out loud, lot of people know it. Even Abortion, which Harris has an edge on clearly, people know team Trump is right. It’s now a state issue, and even conservative states are loosening their restrictions via ballot initiative. The notion that the GOP is going to pass a national abortion ban is patently false. Everyone knows that would be political suicide. “Joy” isn’t a real winning issue, it’s completely hollow, and everyone knows it. The Gallup measures of the most important issues, Trump has somewhere between an 8 and 10 point lead. The economy is number 1 and the last time the lead has been that big on the economy was...2008. Where I'm at in my prediction is: Trump wins the WH with significant electoral margin. POSSIBLY pulls out popular vote Republicans win the house. Republicans win the senate. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 10:20:53 AM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
Again, more signs of what I said was highly likely earlier on. I think Trump takes Wisconsin this cycle. I think Michigan follows suit. If Trump is legitimately winning in PA, WI, or MI then it is most likely he will take all of them. Without PA, Harris doesn't have a realistic path to the WH. Even with the disaster, Trump is going to win in NC. Some of the same demographic trends we see in the rust belt states is also in play in AZ and NV. If he wins AZ he most likely wins NV, too. If Trump wins AZ he will likely do so with sufficient coat tails to bring Kari Lake across the finish line as well. Even more interesting in the data above is the NY numbers. If Trump even gets close in NY, it will be as a result of low propensity voters, independents, and even frustrated democrats coming out for him in numbers that will shock the system and portend a beating unlike anything since 1984. If that trend is happening in NY, odds are it will also herald Trump pulling VA out of his hat, too. VA is a tough one because of how much DC pollution infests our beloved commonwealth. But if that trend of low propensity and independents going heavily Trump holds, then it likely means he has a good chance of carrying Virginia with enough coat tails for Cao to beat Kaine. Kaine's debate performance was abysmal and that might matter to enough independents and undecideds to tip in Cao's favor. Virginia will come down to the DC garbage and university professor shitbirds (DKProf excluded) vs. the working class and middle class folks in the rest of the state. Trump's inroads especially with working class black men and hispanics can make a massive difference in cutting down the margins in the big blue population centers of Richmond and VA Beach/Norfolk. As crazy as it sounds, we're looking at the possibility that Trump carries the popular vote in the country. If that happens it's a political earthquake and my "Trump wins Virginia" map above is the floor, not the ceiling. Luckily I have a pretty good bet on the spread of the electoral college margin over on Predictit.  AZ gope will do whatever it takes to make sure Lake loses. She is determined to get to the bottom of what happened in 2020 and 2022 and they absolutely cannot allow that to happen |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 10:28:20 AM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 0002s: From the beginning of this whole election. What was it that were causing people to flee from Biden so fast that 'the powers to be' saw fit to throw in the mix, the only person that was in the administration, that was disliked more than Biden? Now, if the above is true, what was causing people to flee from Biden was the issue(s). Ask yourself, what has the most disliked person, thrown in without a vote, brought to the table, that would change people's opinions of why they were fleeing Biden in the first place. If anything Harris has caused additional people the flee the current administrations train wreck. There reason you know she's failing is she is constantly attempting to change her approach and message. If you are truly ahead, you don't do this. She is grasping for anything that can get her traction with Muslims, Minorities, Suburban women and any white male who doesn't suck dick. The problem is each time she appeals to one, she pisses off the rest. Then there is the economy. On the other hand, Trump has remained constant in his approach and message. Unless he is completely stupid AND being fed bad information, that he 100% believes, he'd be changing his message in an attempt to save his campaign. He's not. You decide. The Media's constant bullshit, in an attempt to keep this a horse race, AND get her elected hasn't changed this one bit. The final question is, what do they know that we can't and what level of cheat to they have that we can't imagine. Currently, the numbers needed will be larger than mathematically possible for the cheat. It's not going to be COVID easy this time around. Especially with their core minority base and suburban women leaving them. Each base vote that leave requires two for the cheat to work. Math is a cruel mistress when you're attempting to suspend mathematical realities. We will know the outcome in a few weeks. About 1.5 weeks out the polls will tighten up and you'll get a sense of the outcome and pollsters need to be seen as creditable at the end. -jm2c It's always about the money. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 10:33:44 AM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By anesvick: They went with her because of the money, period. They didn't want to leave a quarter of a billion dollars on the table, and would have had to if they went with a different candidate outside of the current administration. It's always about the money. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By anesvick: Originally Posted By 0002s: From the beginning of this whole election. What was it that were causing people to flee from Biden so fast that 'the powers to be' saw fit to throw in the mix, the only person that was in the administration, that was disliked more than Biden? Now, if the above is true, what was causing people to flee from Biden was the issue(s). Ask yourself, what has the most disliked person, thrown in without a vote, brought to the table, that would change people's opinions of why they were fleeing Biden in the first place. If anything Harris has caused additional people the flee the current administrations train wreck. There reason you know she's failing is she is constantly attempting to change her approach and message. If you are truly ahead, you don't do this. She is grasping for anything that can get her traction with Muslims, Minorities, Suburban women and any white male who doesn't suck dick. The problem is each time she appeals to one, she pisses off the rest. Then there is the economy. On the other hand, Trump has remained constant in his approach and message. Unless he is completely stupid AND being fed bad information, that he 100% believes, he'd be changing his message in an attempt to save his campaign. He's not. You decide. The Media's constant bullshit, in an attempt to keep this a horse race, AND get her elected hasn't changed this one bit. The final question is, what do they know that we can't and what level of cheat to they have that we can't imagine. Currently, the numbers needed will be larger than mathematically possible for the cheat. It's not going to be COVID easy this time around. Especially with their core minority base and suburban women leaving them. Each base vote that leave requires two for the cheat to work. Math is a cruel mistress when you're attempting to suspend mathematical realities. We will know the outcome in a few weeks. About 1.5 weeks out the polls will tighten up and you'll get a sense of the outcome and pollsters need to be seen as creditable at the end. -jm2c It's always about the money. ... which would have torn the party apart. Imagine the infighting with the biggest donors all wanting their pony to win. I truly believe the democrats conceded this election to save their crime ring. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 10:48:14 AM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BuckeyeRifleman: At the end of the day, the fundamentals of the election are good for Trump. Between inflation, immigration, world chaos, etc. Trump is the better answer, and deep down, even though they might not admit it out loud, lot of people know it. Even Abortion, which Harris has an edge on clearly, people know team Trump is right. It’s now a state issue, and even conservative states are loosening their restrictions via ballot initiative. The notion that the GOP is going to pass a national abortion ban is patently false. Everyone knows that would be political suicide. “Joy” isn’t a real winning issue, it’s completely hollow, and everyone knows it. Joy and “not Trump” are literally her entire platform. I’ve never seen a candidate with so little planks to persuade the middle. She’s relying on the Fourth Estate for everything. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 11:05:12 AM EST
[#44]
Great thread and insight OP. Thank you.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 11:06:53 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By macman37: Joy and “not Trump” are literally her entire platform. I’ve never seen a candidate with so little planks to persuade the middle. She’s relying on the Fourth Estate for everything. Crucially, they think this will work. Or at least they have up until now. Remember that these people get high on their own supply. They are tone deaf because they're all the smarter, better people and they live in a bubble of their own making. They will be utterly shocked when it doesn't work. You thought the Hillary meltdown after 2016 was bad? This is going to be worse. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 11:14:47 AM EST
[#46]
As far as ballot splitting I see several houses locally that have down ballot dem signs out but no Harris signs.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 11:15:34 AM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Crucially, they think this will work. Or at least they have up until now. Remember that these people get high on their own supply. They are tone deaf because they're all the smarter, better people and they live in a bubble of their own making. They will be utterly shocked when it doesn't work. You thought the Hillary meltdown after 2016 was bad? This is going to be worse. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Originally Posted By macman37: Joy and “not Trump” are literally her entire platform. I’ve never seen a candidate with so little planks to persuade the middle. She’s relying on the Fourth Estate for everything. Crucially, they think this will work. Or at least they have up until now. Remember that these people get high on their own supply. They are tone deaf because they're all the smarter, better people and they live in a bubble of their own making. They will be utterly shocked when it doesn't work. You thought the Hillary meltdown after 2016 was bad? This is going to be worse. I don't believe this will be the case. Even the most diehard liberals I know, don't like Kamala. I don't see any support for her at all. I believe the vast majority of the country was genuinely shocked at the 2016 results. No one took Trump seriously up until that point. |
|
|
|
TX, USA
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 11:19:02 AM EST
[Last Edit: ARandomClaymore]
[#48]
You all keep forgetting about: Abortion
This is why they went with her. She's female. Secure the female vote. Period. This gets women whether child bearing age or not, raging about my body, my choice. Half the voting base will make this their top priority, and will gladly accept the hits and blows of the economy, inflation and border issues as non-critical in their daily lives. To them they have dealt with "those issues" for 3.5+ years and manage. But not having access to abortion and female reproductive care and "rights", can't have that. Again, to them, Trump made that go away using the USSC. Orange man bad! Now their battle cry is, "Vote Blue no matter who!". Edit: I'd like nothing more than to be proven wrong. |
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 11:23:55 AM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Crucially, they think this will work. Or at least they have up until now. Remember that these people get high on their own supply. They are tone deaf because they're all the smarter, better people and they live in a bubble of their own making. They will be utterly shocked when it doesn't work. You thought the Hillary meltdown after 2016 was bad? This is going to be worse. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Originally Posted By macman37: Joy and “not Trump” are literally her entire platform. I’ve never seen a candidate with so little planks to persuade the middle. She’s relying on the Fourth Estate for everything. Crucially, they think this will work. Or at least they have up until now. Remember that these people get high on their own supply. They are tone deaf because they're all the smarter, better people and they live in a bubble of their own making. They will be utterly shocked when it doesn't work. You thought the Hillary meltdown after 2016 was bad? This is going to be worse. Yup. I know a few of these people, including my own father. He is so tone deaf he gave money to Liz Cheney thinking she might actually keep her seat in WY. They are going to be utterly shocked/devastated if the results don’t go their way. I work in a far left big city, and I have to work election night at the moment. I’m a bit worried things are gonna get “interesting.” |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 10/10/2024 11:31:19 AM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ARandomClaymore: You all keep forgetting about: Abortion Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ARandomClaymore: You all keep forgetting about: Abortion I'm not forgetting about it. But this is the problem with your analysis: This is why they went with her. She's female. Secure the female vote. Period. This gets women whether child bearing age or not, raging about my body, my choice. While the democrats would like for identity to be the primary driver of behavior, it is not. They're trying to sell Kamela as a black woman to get a heavy turnout from black women in their favor, and white women in their favor. The problem is that women are not a monolithic voting block. They are broken into classes just like men are. There are wealthy women, upper middle class professional women, rural women, urban women, working class women, and poor women. All of these sub-categories have massive implications for where they are at in life. Kamela's abortion push appeals primarily to the women who are doing well. Wealthy women and upper middle class "professional" women...many of whom work in HR and government...are doing just fine. They have their houses. And their 401K has done just fine, thank you. Trouble is that is not a majority of women. That's a relatively small percentage of women, and for the other categories of women life is not nearly that good. They are the ones impacted by inflation, immigration, crime, and the other top issues. Look at any listing of the top issues as reported by voters and you'll struggle to find a single one where abortion is in the top 10. You are going to find that abortion ranks significantly lower to the working class and middle class women than to the wealthy and upper class women because those women in the lower classes are fighting much bigger problems. |
|
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
Attached File
