THIS THREAD got me started thinking: What'll happen to the Space Shuttle? Poll to follow.

ETA

I'd like to think that it would be extended. Relations with Eastern Europe are not so good that we can afford to put all our eggs into one basket.

1. The manufacturing plant that makes the Russian spacecraft is in the Ukraine. This poses many problems, as the Ukraine is not particularly stable in a political sense.

2. Russia itself is not a reliable partner.

Comments? (No space shuttle door gunner comments, please.)

I think I'll get scrapped on time.  We are going to get tired fast paying the Russkies to send our shit up there.  When are we getting that new rocket anyway?

Peter Griffin buys it on a surplus sale

Check the link about the Ukraine. This link states that it is lots cheaper to send stuff up with the Russian rockets.

The main reason we are subsidizing the Russian/Ukrainian launch facilities is simple: We don't want all those trained rocket people working for countries like Venezuela, Iraq or Iran.

So where will they put the Orbiters on display at?

Smithsonian's Udvar Hazy already has Enterprise... And NASA's center at Huntsville AL has Pathfinder....

I'm guessing one stays at Cape Canaveral and one goes to Johnson Space Center in Houston. But where will the third one go?

Everybody's been saying the Smithonian's still slated for one.

If the third active one doesn't go to the Smithsonian, SWAG might be the AF museum at Wright-Patterson AFB in Ohio.

Personally I think they should keep they flying, or at least flyable.  Seems stupid to throw away the unique capabilities of those spacecraft.

It would seem to be the right thing to do. But don't forget that to simply launch one of these, there is a HUGE infrastructure that must be in place: launch facilities, pre-launch preparation facilities, tracking & data relay, etc. Not to mention the personnel who must be trained and kept up to speed on how to operate such a spacecraft.

Not like a B-52 which can use most any available airport.

I think the program will be extended a bit. Nothing there ever goes on schedule.

That said, I hope we keep it going until we get the Ares launching people.

Test articles
OV-095 -Shuttle Avionics Integration Laboratory replica for avionic system testing and training
Shuttle Avionics Integration Laboratory (SAIL) is a facility at Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas.
Not a Shuttle

OV-098 (honorary) Pathfinder - Orbiter Simulator for moving and handling tests
On display at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
Mock-up

MPTA-098 - Testbed for propulsion and fuel delivery systems
Main Propulsion Test Article remains in storage at the National Space Technology Laboratory, now named the Stennis Space Center.
Not a Shuttle

OV-101 - Enterprise - Used for approach and landing tests, not suitable for spaceflight
On display at Smithsonian Institution, Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center

Orbiters
OV-103 - Discovery - First launched on August 30, 1984
Possible - Edwards AFB

OV-104 Atlantis - First launched on October 3, 1985
Possible - USAF Museum Wright-Patterson AFB

OV-105 - Endeavour - First launched on May 7, 1992
Possible - John F. Kennedy Space Center

It'll be scrapped on time. They've already started getting rid of the infrastructure that would be required to extend it.

They're already pushing up our schedule for the replacement.

Californy-eye-eh!!!

Group Buy?

The Ares I program, which is the booster for the Orion Crew Expedition/Exploration Vehicle is far from a done deal and years from flying, if ever.  If the program is adequately funded the earliest first flight would be in a 2017 timeframe.  There are significant technical issues to overcome including thrust oscillation in the solid rocket main motor, booster recovery parachute design.  

Ares V, which is the companion heavy lift vehicle to Ares I and the Altair lunar lander were both only in the early planning and design stage.  That work was effectively killed when it was de-funded earlier this fall.  According to Dr. John Olson, Director of the Directorate Integration Office (DIO) in the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) at NASA Headquarters in Washington, DC:

"But the federal budget proposed by President Obama would not pay for that, certainly not before 2020. After increases in the current year and for fiscal year 2010, Mr. Obama’s proposed spending on human exploration in years 2011 through 2013 was several billion dollars less than what President Bush proposed last year. That essentially cut the money to turn the Altair and the Ares V from paper concepts to detailed designs and real spacecraft. No bucks, no Buck Rogers."

This ends the back to the moon program for now.


Ares I / Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle Stack


Ares V Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle

At the moment the NASA budget can support International Space Station operations or the development of the Orion/Ares flight hardware, not both.  Unless the budget is significantly increased the choice is either to scrap the space station and build the Ares/Orion system or keep the station and the United States is out of the human spaceflight business and relegated to buying rides with the Russians.  There is also talk that NASA should get out of the human spaceflight business altogether and leave it to the private sector.  

Personally, I'm not a fan of the current situation at all.  Given the 8:1 payback we receive on each dollar spent on manned spaceflight and the fact that all of NASA only represents one half of one percent of the Federal budget (.005) I think it's a good use of funds.  Add to the fact that spaceflight is still about research and exploration and not yet a commercial venture, it seems an appropriate use of Federal dollars.  An interesting side note, the proposed 2010 NASA budget comes in at $18.7 billion.  Compare that to some of the recent spending over the last 18 months and it not only seems like a bargain but it seems like a pretty good investment with measurable ROI.

If you'd like more information on the options available for the future of US human spaceflight, read the recently completed (October 2009) Augustine Report.  The report was comissioned by the White House to evaluate options for NASA's human spaceflight program.  A copy can be downloaded here:  Augustine Committee Report, October, 2009

where do you get your information?