The Ares I program, which is the booster for the Orion Crew Expedition/Exploration Vehicle is far from a done deal and years from flying, if ever. If the program is adequately funded the earliest first flight would be in a 2017 timeframe. There are significant technical issues to overcome including thrust oscillation in the solid rocket main motor, booster recovery parachute design.
Ares V, which is the companion heavy lift vehicle to Ares I and the Altair lunar lander were both only in the early planning and design stage. That work was effectively killed when it was de-funded earlier this fall. According to Dr. John Olson, Director of the Directorate Integration Office (DIO) in the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) at NASA Headquarters in Washington, DC:
"But the federal budget proposed by President Obama would not pay for that, certainly not before 2020. After increases in the current year and for fiscal year 2010, Mr. Obama’s proposed spending on human exploration in years 2011 through 2013 was several billion dollars less than what President Bush proposed last year. That essentially cut the money to turn the Altair and the Ares V from paper concepts to detailed designs and real spacecraft. No bucks, no Buck Rogers."
This ends the back to the moon program for now.
Ares I / Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle Stack
Ares V Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle
At the moment the NASA budget can support International Space Station operations or the development of the Orion/Ares flight hardware, not both. Unless the budget is significantly increased the choice is either to scrap the space station and build the Ares/Orion system or keep the station and the United States is out of the human spaceflight business and relegated to buying rides with the Russians. There is also talk that NASA should get out of the human spaceflight business altogether and leave it to the private sector.
Personally, I'm not a fan of the current situation at all. Given the 8:1 payback we receive on each dollar spent on manned spaceflight and the fact that all of NASA only represents one half of one percent of the Federal budget (.005) I think it's a good use of funds. Add to the fact that spaceflight is still about research and exploration and not yet a commercial venture, it seems an appropriate use of Federal dollars. An interesting side note, the proposed 2010 NASA budget comes in at $18.7 billion. Compare that to some of the recent spending over the last 18 months and it not only seems like a bargain but it seems like a pretty good investment with measurable ROI.
If you'd like more information on the options available for the future of US human spaceflight, read the recently completed (October 2009) Augustine Report. The report was comissioned by the White House to evaluate options for NASA's human spaceflight program. A copy can be downloaded here:
Augustine Committee Report, October, 2009