First off, tremendous props to LoBrau, who saw Ukraine coming well in advance and started a record setting thread. May that record stand forever, because nothing would please us more than for there to no longer be anything to talk about.

What has become evident since February of 2022 is that there is a global reshuffling taking place, with three primary players behind most of the conflict in the world today. Discussion of current geopolitics cannot be constrained to one country or conflict.

What this thread is:
News and discussion related to political / military actions by Russia / Iran / China and their proxies, chief among those, North Korea.
News and discussion of the relationships between Russia / Iran / China and their proxies.
News and discussion of responses to Russia / Iran / China and their proxies.
Related Grey Zone / hybrid warfare / “competition short of war.”
Relevant or interesting technical discussion.
Relevant economic / social / historical discussion.
Reliable reporting from Russian / Iranian / Chinese sources.
Russian / Iranian / Chinese perspectives and factual evaluation thereof.
Political topics in the US and / or elsewhere which bear directly on these issues, including the politics of foreign aid.
Current focus is on the Russian war against and in Ukraine, however this could change if the Ukraine war cooled off and Taiwan heated up.  Related topics are always allowed.
Secondary but related topics like Wagner in Africa, uprising in Georgia, or a Third Chechen War.
Reasonable tangents.

What this thread is not:
US and / or foreign political issues which do not directly bear on these topics, including campaigning / advocating for one party or candidate.

General rules:
Discussion is expected to be conducted in good faith and assertions of fact should be substantiated.
In case of a question on whether a subtopic or line of discussion is relevant to this thread, the following members should be considered co-owners with decision making authority- AlmightyTallest, Capta, and SaltwaterHillbilly.



The Axis of Upheaval
How America’s Adversaries Are Uniting to Overturn the Global Order

By Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine
May/June 2024
Published on April 23, 2024



In the early morning of January 2, Russian forces launched a massive missile attack on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv that killed at least five civilians, injured more than 100, and damaged infrastructure. The incident was notable not just for the harm it caused but also because it showed that Russia was not alone in its fight. The Russian attack that day was carried out with weapons fitted with technology from China, missiles from North Korea, and drones from Iran. Over the past two years, all three countries have become critical enablers of Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine.

Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Moscow has deployed more than 3,700 Iranian-designed drones. Russia now produces at least 330 on its own each month and is collaborating with Iran on plans to build a new drone factory inside Russia that will boost these numbers. North Korea has sent Russia ballistic missiles and more than 2.5 million rounds of ammunition, just as Ukrainian stockpiles have dwindled. China, for its part, has become Russia’s most important lifeline. Beijing has ramped up its purchase of Russian oil and gas, putting billions of dollars into Moscow’s coffers. Just as significantly, China provides vast amounts of warfighting technology, from semiconductors and electronic devices to radar- and communications-jamming equipment and jet-fighter parts. Customs records show that despite Western trade sanctions, Russia’s imports of computer chips and chip components have been steadily rising toward prewar levels. More than half of these goods come from China.

The support from China, Iran, and North Korea has strengthened Russia’s position on the battlefield, undermined Western attempts to isolate Moscow, and harmed Ukraine. This collaboration, however, is just the tip of the iceberg. Cooperation among the four countries was expanding before 2022, but the war has accelerated their deepening economic, military, political, and technological ties. The four powers increasingly identify common interests, match up their rhetoric, and coordinate their military and diplomatic activities. Their convergence is creating a new axis of upheaval—a development that is fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape.

The group is not an exclusive bloc and certainly not an alliance. It is, instead, a collection of dissatisfied states converging on a shared purpose of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system. When these four countries cooperate, their actions have far greater effect than the sum of their individual efforts. Working together, they enhance one another’s military capabilities; dilute the efficacy of U.S. foreign policy tools, including sanctions; and hinder the ability of Washington and its partners to enforce global rules. Their collective aim is to create an alternative to the current order, which they consider to be dominated by the United States.

Too many Western observers have been quick to dismiss the implications of coordination among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The four countries have their differences, to be sure, and a history of distrust and contemporary fissures may limit how close their relationships will grow. Yet their shared aim of weakening the United States and its leadership role provides a strong adhesive. In places across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, the ambitions of axis members have already proved to be destabilizing. Managing the disruptive effects of their further coordination and preventing the axis from upsetting the global system must now be central objectives of U.S. foreign policy.

THE ANTI-WESTERN CLUB

Collaboration among axis members is not new. China and Russia have been strengthening their partnership since the end of the Cold War—a trend that accelerated rapidly after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. China’s share of Russian external trade doubled from ten to 20 percent between 2013 and 2021, and between 2018 and 2022 Russia supplied a combined total of 83 percent of China’s arms imports. Russian technology has helped the Chinese military enhance its air defense, antiship, and submarine capabilities, making China a more formidable force in a potential naval conflict. Beijing and Moscow have also expressed a shared vision. In early 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a joint manifesto pledging a “no limits” partnership between their two countries and calling for “international relations of a new type”—in other words, a multipolar system that is no longer dominated by the United States.

Iran has strengthened its ties with other axis members as well. Iran and Russia worked together to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power after the onset of civil war in 2011. Joining Russia’s efforts, which include major energy agreements with Iran to shield Tehran from the effects of U.S. sanctions, China has purchased large quantities of Iranian oil since 2020. North Korea, for its part, has counted China as its primary ally and trade partner for decades, and North Korea and Russia have maintained warm, if not particularly substantive, ties. Iran has purchased North Korean missiles since the 1980s, and more recently, North Korea is thought to have supplied weapons to Iranian proxy groups, including Hezbollah and possibly Hamas. Pyongyang and Tehran have also bonded over a shared aversion to Washington: as a senior North Korean official, Kim Yong Nam, declared during a ten-day trip to Iran in 2017, the two countries “have a common enemy.”

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 hastened the convergence among these four countries in ways that transcend their historical ties. Moscow has been among Tehran’s top suppliers of weapons over the past two decades and is now its largest source of foreign investment; Russian exports to Iran rose by 27 percent in the first ten months of 2022. Over the past two years, according to the White House, Russia has been sharing more intelligence with and providing more weapons to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies, and Moscow has defended those proxies in debates at the UN Security Council. Last year, Russia displaced Saudi Arabia as China’s largest source of crude oil and trade between the two countries topped $240 billion, a record high. Moscow has also released millions of dollars in North Korean assets that previously sat frozen in Russian banks in compliance with Security Council sanctions. China, Iran, and Russia have held joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman three years in a row, most recently in March 2024. Russia has also proposed trilateral naval drills with China and North Korea.

The growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia is fueled by their shared opposition to the Western-dominated global order, an antagonism rooted in their belief that that system does not accord them the status or freedom of action they deserve. Each country claims a sphere of influence: China’s “core interests,” which extend to Taiwan and the South China Sea; Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the set of proxy groups that give Tehran leverage in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere; North Korea’s claim to the entire Korean Peninsula; and Russia’s “near abroad,” which for the Kremlin includes, at a minimum, the countries that composed its historic empire. All four countries see the United States as the primary obstacle to establishing these spheres of influence, and they want Washington’s presence in their respective regions reduced.

All reject the principle of universal values and interpret the West’s championing of its brand of democracy as an attempt to undermine their legitimacy and foment domestic instability. They insist that individual states have the right to define democracy for themselves. In the end, although they may make temporary accommodations with the United States, they do not believe that the West will accept their rise (or return) to power on the world stage. They oppose external meddling in their internal affairs, the expansion of U.S. alliances, the stationing of American nuclear weapons abroad, and the use of coercive sanctions.

Any positive vision for the future, however, is more elusive. Yet history shows that a positive agenda may not be necessary for a group of discontented powers to cause disruption. The 1940 Tripartite Pact uniting Germany, Italy, and Japan—the original “Axis”—pledged to “establish and maintain a new order of things” in which each country would claim “its own proper place.” They did not succeed, but World War II certainly brought global upheaval. The axis of China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia does not need a coherent plan for an alternative international order to upset the existing system. The countries’ shared opposition to the present order’s core tenets and their determination to bring about change form a powerful basis for collaborative action.

Fissures do exist among members of the axis. China and Russia vie for influence in Central Asia, for instance, while Iran and Russia compete for oil markets in China, India, and elsewhere in Asia. The four countries have complicated histories with each other, too. The Soviet Union invaded Iran in 1941; Russia and China settled their long-standing border dispute only in 2004 and had both previously supported efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear programs and to isolate North Korea. Today, China may look askance at North Korea’s deepening relationship with Russia, worrying that an emboldened Kim Jong Un will aggravate tensions in Northeast Asia and draw in a larger U.S. military presence, which China does not want. Yet their differences are insufficient to dissolve the bonds forged by their common resistance to a Western-dominated world.

CATALYST IN THE KREMLIN

Moscow has been the main instigator of this axis. The invasion of Ukraine marked a point of no return in Putin’s long-standing crusade against the West. Putin has grown more committed to destroying not only Ukraine but also the global order. And he has doubled down on relationships with like-minded countries to accomplish his aims. Cut off from Western trade, investment, and technology since the start of the war, Moscow has had little choice but to rely on its partners to sustain its hostilities. The ammunition, drones, microchips, and other forms of aid that axis members have sent have been of great help to Russia. But the more the Kremlin relies on these countries, the more it must give away in return. Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran are taking advantage of their leverage over Moscow to expand their military capabilities and economic options.

Even before the Russian invasion, Moscow’s military assistance to Beijing was eroding the United States’ military advantage over China. Russia has provided ever more sophisticated weapons to China, and the two countries’ joint military exercises have grown in scope and frequency. Russian officers who have fought in Syria and in Ukraine’s Donbas region have shared valuable lessons with Chinese personnel, helping the People’s Liberation Army make up for its lack of operational experience—a notable weakness relative to more seasoned U.S. forces. China’s military modernization has reduced the urgency of deepening defense cooperation with Russia, but the two countries are likely to proceed with technology transfers and joint weapons development and production. In February, for instance, Russian officials confirmed that they were working with Chinese counterparts on military applications of artificial intelligence. Moscow retains an edge over Beijing in other key areas, including submarine technology, remote sensing satellites, and aircraft engines. If China can pressure a more dependent Russia to provide additional advanced technologies, the transfer could further undermine the United States’ advantages.

A similar dynamic is playing out in Russia’s relations with Iran and North Korea. Moscow and Tehran have forged what the Biden administration has called an “unprecedented defense partnership” that upgrades Iranian military capabilities. Russia has provided Iran with advanced aircraft, air defense, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and cyber-capabilities that would help Tehran resist a potential U.S. or Israeli military operation. And in return for North Korea’s ammunition and other military support to Russia, Pyongyang is reportedly seeking advanced space, missile, and submarine technology from Moscow. If Russia were to comply with those requests, North Korea would be able to improve the accuracy and survivability of its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and use Russian nuclear propulsion technology to expand the range and capability of its submarines. Already, Russia’s testing of North Korean weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine has supplied Pyongyang with information it can use to refine its missile program, and Russian assistance may have helped North Korea launch a military spy satellite in November after two previous failures last year.

Strong relations among the four axis countries have emboldened leaders in Pyongyang and Tehran. Kim, who now enjoys strong backing from both China and Russia, abandoned North Korea’s decades-old policy of peaceful unification with South Korea and stepped up its threats against Seoul, indulged in nuclear blackmail and missile tests, and expressed a lack of any interest in talks with the United States. And although there does not appear to be a direct connection between their deepening partnership and Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, growing support from Russia likely made Iran more willing to activate its regional proxies in the aftermath. The coordinated diplomacy and pressure from Russia and the West that brought Iran into the 2015 nuclear deal are now a distant memory. Today, Moscow and Beijing are helping Tehran resist Western coercion, making it easier for Iran to enrich uranium and reject Washington’s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear agreement.

AMERICA UNDERMINED

Collaboration among the axis members also reduces the potency of tools that Washington and its partners often use to confront them. In the most glaring example, since the start of the war in Ukraine, China has supplied Russia with semiconductors and other essential technologies that Russia previously imported from the West, undercutting the efficacy of Western export controls. All four countries are also working to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. The share of Russia’s imports invoiced in Chinese renminbi jumped from three percent in 2021 to 20 percent in 2022. And in December 2023, Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct bilateral trade in their local currencies. By moving their economic transactions out of reach of U.S. enforcement measures, axis members undermine the efficacy of Western sanctions, as well as anticorruption and anti-money-laundering efforts.

Taking advantage of their shared borders and littoral zones, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia can build trade and transportation networks safe from U.S. interdiction. Iran, for example, ships drones and other weapons to Russia across the Caspian Sea, where the United States has little power to stop transfers. If the United States were engaged in conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing could seek support from Moscow. Russia might increase its overland exports of oil and gas to its southern neighbor, reducing China’s dependence on maritime energy imports that U.S. forces could block during a conflict. Russia’s defense industrial base, now in overdrive to supply weapons for Russian troops in Ukraine, could later pivot to sustain a Chinese war effort. Such cooperation would increase the odds of China’s prevailing over the American military and help advance Russia’s goal of diminishing the United States’ geopolitical influence.

The axis is also hindering Washington’s ability to rally international coalitions that can stand against its members’ destabilizing actions. China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, made it far easier for countries across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East to do the same. And Beijing and Moscow have impeded Western efforts to isolate Iran. Last year, they elevated Iran from observer to member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a predominantly Asian regional body, and then orchestrated an invitation for Iran to join the BRICS—a group that China and Russia view as a counterweight to the West. Iran’s regional meddling and nuclear pursuits have made other countries wary of dealing with its government, but its participation in international forums enhances the regime’s legitimacy and presents it with opportunities to expand trade with fellow member states.

Parallel efforts by axis members in the information domain further weaken international support for U.S. positions. China, Iran, and North Korea either defended or avoided explicitly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and they all parroted the Kremlin in accusing NATO of inciting the war. Their response to Hamas’s attacks on Israel last October followed a similar pattern. Iran used the state media and social media accounts to express support for Hamas, vilify Israel, and denounce the United States for enabling Israel’s military response, while the Russian and, to a lesser extent, Chinese media sharply criticized the United States’ enduring support for Israel. They used the war in Gaza to portray Washington as a destabilizing, domineering force in the world—a narrative that is particularly resonant in parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Even if axis members do not overtly coordinate their messages, they push the same themes, and the repetition makes them appear more credible and persuasive.

AN ALTERNATIVE ORDER?

Global orders magnify the strength of the powerful states that lead them. The United States, for instance, has invested in the liberal international order it helped create because this order reflects American preferences and extends U.S. influence. As long as an order remains sufficiently beneficial to most members, a core group of states will defend it. Dissenting countries, meanwhile, are bound by a collective action problem. If they were to defect en masse, they could succeed in creating an alternative order more to their liking. But without a core cluster of powerful states around which they can coalesce, the advantage remains with the existing order.

For decades, threats to the U.S.-led order were limited to a handful of rogue states with little power to upend it. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the restructuring of interstate relations it prompted have lifted the constraint on collective action. The axis of upheaval represents a new center of gravity, a group that other countries dissatisfied with the existing order can turn to. The axis is ushering in an international system characterized by two orders that are becoming increasingly organized and competitive.

Historically, competing orders have invited conflict, especially at the geographical seams between them. Wars arise from specific conditions, such as a territorial dispute, the need to protect national interests or the interests of an ally, or a threat to the survival of a regime. But the likelihood that any of those conditions will lead to war increases in the presence of dueling orders. Some political science researchers have found that periods in which a single order prevailed—the balance-of-power system maintained by the Concert of Europe for much of the nineteenth century, for example, or the U.S.-dominated post–Cold War era—were less prone to conflicts than those characterized by more than one order, such as the multipolar period between the two world wars and the bipolar system of the Cold War.

The world has gotten a preview of the instability this new era of competing orders will bring, with potential aggressors empowered by the axis’s normalization of alternative rules and less afraid of being isolated if they act out. Already, Hamas’s attack on Israel threatens to engulf the wider Middle East in war. Last October, Azerbaijan forcibly took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region inhabited by ethnic Armenians. Tensions flared between Serbia and Kosovo in 2023, too, and Venezuela threatened to seize territory in neighboring Guyana in December. Although internal conditions precipitated the coups in Myanmar and across Africa’s Sahel region since 2020, the rising incidence of such revolts is connected to the new international arrangement. For many years, it seemed that coups were becoming less common, in large part because plotters faced significant costs for violating norms. Now, however, the calculations have changed. Overthrowing a government may still shatter relations with the West, but the new regimes can find support in Beijing and Moscow.

Further development of the axis would bring even greater tumult. So far, most collaboration among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia has been bilateral. Trilateral and quadrilateral action could expand their capacity for disruption. Countries such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, and Venezuela—all of which chafe against the U.S.-led, Western-dominated system—could also begin working more closely with the axis. If the group grows in size and tightens its coordination, the United States and its allies will have a more difficult time defending the recognized order.

TAKING ON THE REVISIONISTS

For now, U.S. national security strategy ranks China as a higher priority than Iran, North Korea, or even Russia. That assessment is strategically sound when considering the threat that individual countries pose to the United States, but it does not fully account for the cooperation among them. U.S. policy will need to address the destabilizing effects of revisionist countries’ acting in concert, and it should try to disrupt their coordinated efforts to subvert important international rules and institutions. Washington, furthermore, should undercut the axis’s appeal by sharpening the attractions of the existing order.

If the United States is to counter an increasingly coordinated axis, it cannot treat each threat as an isolated phenomenon. Washington should not ignore Russian aggression in Europe, for example, in order to focus on rising Chinese power in Asia. It is already clear that Russia’s success in Ukraine benefits a revisionist China by showing that it is possible, if costly, to thwart a united Western effort. Even as Washington rightly sees China as its top priority, addressing the challenge from Beijing will require competing with other members of the axis in other parts of the world. To be effective, the United States will need to devote additional resources to national security, engage in more vigorous diplomacy, develop new and stronger partnerships, and take a more activist role in the world than it has of late.

Driving wedges between members of the axis, on the other hand, will not work. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some strategists suggested that the United States align itself with Russia to balance China. After the war began, a few held out hope that the United States could join China in an anti-Russian coalition. But unlike President Richard Nixon’s opening to China in the 1970s, which took advantage of a Sino-Soviet split to draw Beijing further away from Moscow, there is no equivalent ideological or geopolitical rivalry for Washington to exploit today. The price of trying would likely involve U.S. recognition of a Russian or Chinese sphere of influence in Europe and Asia—regions central to U.S. interests and ones that Washington should not allow a hostile foreign power to dominate. Breaking Iran or North Korea off from the rest of the axis would be even more difficult, given their governments’ revisionist, even revolutionary aims. Ultimately, the axis is a problem the United States must manage, not one it can solve with grand strategic gestures.

Neither the West nor the axis will become wholly distinct political, military, and economic blocs. Each coalition will compete for influence all over the world, trying to draw vital countries closer to its side. Six “global swing states” will be particularly important: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are all middle powers with enough collective geopolitical weight for their policy preferences to sway the future direction of the international order. These six countries—and others, too—can be expected to pursue economic, diplomatic, military, and technological ties with members of both orders. U.S. policymakers should make it a priority to deny advantages to the axis in these countries, encouraging their governments to choose policies that favor the prevailing order. In practice, that means using trade incentives, military engagement, foreign aid, and diplomacy to prevent swing states from hosting axis members’ military bases, giving axis members access to their technology infrastructure or military equipment, or helping them circumvent Western sanctions.

Although competition with the axis may be inevitable, the United States must try to avoid direct conflict with any of its members. To that end, Washington should reaffirm its security commitments to bolster deterrence in the western Pacific, in the Middle East, on the Korean Peninsula, and on NATO’s eastern flank. The United States and its allies should also prepare for opportunistic aggression. If a Chinese invasion of Taiwan prompts U.S. military intervention, for instance, Russia may be tempted to move against another European country, and Iran or North Korea could escalate threats in their regions. Even if the axis members do not coordinate their aggression directly, concurrent conflicts could overwhelm the West. Washington will therefore need to press allies to invest in capabilities that the United States could not provide if it were already engaged in another military theater.

Confronting the axis will be expensive. A new strategy will require the United States to bolster its spending on defense, foreign aid, diplomacy, and strategic communications. Washington must direct aid to the frontlines of conflict between the axis and the West—including assistance to Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, all of which face encroachment by axis members. Revisionists are emboldened by the sense that political divisions at home or exhaustion with international engagement will keep the United States on the sidelines of this competition; a comprehensive, well-resourced U.S. strategy with bipartisan support would help counter that impression. The alternative—a reduction in the U.S. global presence—would leave the fate of crucial regions in the hands not of friendly local powers but of axis members seeking to impose their revisionist and illiberal preferences.

THE FOUR-POWER THREAT

There is a tendency to downplay the significance of growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. By turning to Beijing, this argument goes, Moscow merely signals its acceptance of the role of junior partner. Obtaining drones from Iran and munitions from North Korea demonstrates the desperation of a Russian war machine that incorrectly assumed that conquering Ukraine would be easy. China’s embrace of Russia shows only that Beijing could not achieve the positive relationship it originally sought with Europe and other Western powers. North Korea remains the world’s most isolated country, and Iran’s disruptive activities have backfired, strengthening regional cooperation among Israel, the United States, and Gulf countries.

Such analysis ignores the severity of the threat. Four powers, growing in strength and coordination, are united in their opposition to the prevailing world order and its U.S. leadership. Their combined economic and military capacity, together with their determination to change the way the world has worked since the end of the Cold War, make for a dangerous mix. This is a group bent on upheaval, and the United States and its partners must treat the axis as the generational challenge it is. They must reinforce the foundations of the international order and push back against those who act most vigorously to undermine it. It is likely impossible to arrest the emergence of this new axis, but keeping it from upending the current system is an achievable goal.

The West has everything it needs to triumph in this contest. Its combined economy is far larger, its militaries are significantly more powerful, its geography is more advantageous, its values are more attractive, and its democratic system is more stable. The United States and its partners should be confident in their own strengths, even as they appreciate the scale of effort necessary to compete with this budding anti-Western coalition. The new axis has already changed the picture of geopolitics—but Washington and its partners can still prevent the world of upheaval the axis hopes to usher in.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/axis-upheaval-russia-iran-north-korea-taylor-fontaine

For 8 years team Obama emphasized diplomacy over military deterrence and team Biden has carried that forward.

Both gave billions to Iran, Ukraine lost Crimea while Obama was CinC and throw in Biden Afghan withdrawal etc their “diplomacy” has been dog shit

Not trying to give Bush {I opppsed the Iraq invasion in 2002 when I learned about it}  or Trump passes but imo it’s largely been Democrats dropping the ball on the economy and defense

From the other day, but interesting.

Memo being sent around to Senate GOP offices this afternoon — a final push to get as many GOP votes as possible on final passage & taking aim at some of the arguments made in recent days by opponents of Ukraine aid. pic.twitter.com/Ps9OYS0Ui1

Andrew Desiderio  (@AndrewDesiderio) April 23, 2024

Absolutely agree, I’ve added it to the line about proxies. While a big factor, I’m thinking the Norks are more tail than dog.

Open to being persuaded differently.

Shoigu was predicted to resign after the arrest of a key deputy defense minister

The head of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, may lose his post in the new government, which will be formed after the official inauguration of Vladimir Putin for a fifth presidential term. Forbes reports this with reference to a source close to the military department.

According to the publication’s interlocutor, the upcoming change in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense is associated with the arrest of Deputy Minister Timur Ivanov, a longtime ally of Shoigu, who worked with him in the government of the Moscow region in the early 2010s.

The arrest of Ivanov, who is charged with receiving a bribe on an especially large scale, is the beginning of a “purge of those close to Shoigu in the Ministry of Defense,” a Forbes source believes. Having supervised all major construction projects at the Ministry of Defense, as well as gigantic budgets for supplying troops, Ivanov can go to a colony for 15 years. According to a Forbes source, questions have “accumulated” for Ivanov and he has multiple “shoals.”

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21729

??\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8Biden will sign aid to \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6Ukraine today, - the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Yermak.

There will also be additional PATRIOTs, we will have good news very soon. pic.twitter.com/WI6QpaHv6b

— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) April 24, 2024

Not military powers but China has effectively surrounded India persuading all the countries around it like Bhutan, Nepal etc on top of Pakistan to side with it.

We all already know about Africa.

Anyway, in addition to military partnerships which is the focus of this thread, there’s the diplomatic and economic allies which also help them skirt sanctions

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311040.shtml

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https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/22/maldives-elections-2024-mohamed-muizzu-pnc-peoples-national-congress-pro-china-party-wins

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NSFW, look at the many same sized holes in the fabric of the trucks, this isn't DPICM, this is a Himars strike.


https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1782978877997928546

I guess India gets more technical assistance from Israel then from Gaza.

I'm very curious which way India goes in the continuing bifurcation of the world: Joins the Russia/Iran/Nork Axis? Pakistan is most likely to join that gang so I doubt India will. China is all for China and will probably wait for Russia/Iran/Nork to go to blows with the West, then China can move in once everyone is weakened/destroyed...

I'm starting to doubt any country does anything for moralistic, altruistic reasons.

Russian servicemen started installing "rear screens" against FPV drones on motorcycles.https://t.co/yOu6x0EmN1 pic.twitter.com/jp0tngCagU

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 24, 2024

Manufacturing here won't change until a world war happens and we are in deep shit trying to claw our way out of the hole. Too much government in business and climate bullshit for us to have any kind of equal heavy manufacturing footing.

Lot of news regarding space here’s just a couple examples

 https://www.businessinsider.com/china-and-russias-unfriendly-space-behavior-concerning-analysts-2024-4?amp

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https://spacenews.com/russia-china-catching-up-to-u-s-in-space-weaponry-new-report-finds/

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Analysis? Russia has read the tea leaves and is giving up on Sevastopol? At least until they can completely knock out the threat via land? Between Ukrainian indigenous missile developments (Neptune) and the hopefully forthcoming Western aid (300Km ATACMS and Storm Shadows) Sevastopol has become untenable? If true, I will miss the occasional Braking News about Russian ships, subs, HQ's being spectacularly hit...

You should write for Hallmark! I would 100% buy your Valentines Day cards...10:10

Keeping up with the Chinese threat.

To support multi-domain ops in the Indo-Pacific, the US Army needs proven UAS with the latest capabilities.#GrayEagle25M’s EagleEye radar will integrate an Active Electronically Scanned Array, which will more than double its range. #AAAA2024

Read here: https://t.co/hUtblQhyP7 pic.twitter.com/EXE4eDEWnG

— GA-ASI (@GenAtomics_ASI) April 24, 2024

https://www.ga-asi.com/ga-asi-adding-aesa-antenna-to-eagleeye-radar

Reading news in India they’re still devoted to Russia which makes me wonder if China and India have another border war not just throwing rocks and pushing people off cliffs but missiles, bombers etc how will Moscow navigate balancing that? Fir now India is so afraid of a war {probably worried Pakistan will join in} with China they just ceded hundreds of kilometers of the disputed territory causing Indian nationalists to flame the Modi government

NEW: The Institute acquired high-resolution Airbus Pleiades Neo satellite images of Iran’s Eighth Shekari Air Base taken shortly after the reported Israeli attack on the S-300 missile defense system deployed at the base.https://t.co/lY57SkvfRy pic.twitter.com/kKFN4lpomH

Inst for Science  (@TheGoodISIS) April 23, 2024

AFAIK, Iran has also bought a reserve radar vehicle for the S-300 batteries they purchased from Russia.
The pickup truck in this photo can be the tug vehicle which brought the reserve radar vehicle as fast as possible. https://t.co/CO6Y04Bitd pic.twitter.com/UC3s2A4dDy

Mehdi H.  (@mhmiranusa) April 23, 2024

My new piece, citing @CSBiggers' analysis, explains how Iran kept up its story that Israel didn't hit anything: they substituted a (completely different) radar for the one Israel struck to make it look like the S-300 battery at Natanz is still operational. https://t.co/XHPk9mJOQV

Shashank Joshi  (@shashj) April 24, 2024

Obviously, the switcheroo (96l6E radar placed on the spot of the damaged 30N6E2) won't fool the US or Israel, who will see that the battery is missing a key component. But the pics might be enough for Iran & supporters to sell the story—and so de-escalate. https://t.co/TOc4eMMDv2

Shashank Joshi  (@shashj) April 24, 2024

Israeli fighter jets and artillery forces carried out a wave of strikes against dozens of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the military says.

According to the IDF, the some 40 targets in Ayta ash-Shab were hit by aircraft and artillery shelling within several minutes.

The… pic.twitter.com/gwMyURrXMM

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) April 24, 2024

https://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/15190599

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https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/13/china-reaffirms-ties-with-north-korea-in-high-level-pyongyang-meeting

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Bread prices have risen sharply in Russia

Bread prices in Russia began to rise sharply and have increased since the beginning of the year by up to 30% in Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Leningrad, Sverdlovsk and Kemerovo regions. This situation forced the Ministry of Agriculture to hold a meeting with producers and take the issue under special control, three producers who participated in the meeting told Kommersant.

As of mid-April, selling prices for bread made from wheat flour average 62.6 rubles. for 1 kg, and from rye-wheat - 55.4 rubles. for 1 kg, the Ministry of Agriculture reported. Manufacturers have raised selling prices for the most popular varieties by an average of 10–15%, says Rustam Aydiev, executive director of the National Bakery Union. According to him, the main reason for the increase in selling prices was the increase in manufacturers' costs for logistics, which account for up to 30% of the cost.

The rate of growth in logistics prices noticeably outstrips the cost of raw materials for baking, Kommersant’s sources in the industry confirmed. The problem with logistics was raised at a meeting at the Ministry of Agriculture, but they suggested that manufacturers contact the Ministry of Transport on this issue, Kommersant’s interlocutors say. At the same time, industry representatives doubt that the government will be able to solve the problems with rising fuel prices and a shortage of drivers.

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21719



Russian authorities are preparing to supply gas to China at a discount of almost 30%

Prices for Russian gas for China until 2027 will be 28% lower than for consumers in Europe and Turkey. This follows from the macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, which Bloomberg reviewed.

According to the ministry’s base scenario, the export price of Russian gas to China in 2024 will be $257 per 1,000 cubic meters. m. versus $320.30 for the European market and Turkey. Thus, the difference between them will not exceed 19.76%. However, in the next three years it will increase to 28%. So, in 2025 the price for China will be $243.7, and for Europe and Turkey - $320.1, in 2026 - $233 and $320, respectively, and in 2027 - $227.8 and $315.4.

Gazprom continues to export pipeline gas to several European countries, although in 2023 deliveries to Europe fell to their lowest level since the early 1970s and amounted to about 45 billion cubic meters, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Before the war in Ukraine, Gazprom exported an average of 150 billion cubic meters to Europe. m per year, and in 2018 set a record, delivering 201 billion cubic meters. m.

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21730



The Prosecutor General's Office blamed Roshydromet for the worst flood in 70 years

Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov called the non-use of the hydrological network for flood forecasting the cause of massive floods in the regions, Kommersant writes. “The lack of reliable information about water inflow indicators at a critical moment did not prevent global flooding of the territories of several regions. This was one of the reasons for the emergency,” he said.

According to him, he demanded that the Minister of Natural Resources Alexander Kozlov and the head of Roshydromet Igor Shumakov eliminate the violations in January, but the measures taken were ineffective. Krasnov promised to bring to justice all those responsible for large-scale floods. “The primary and common task now is to provide assistance to the victims and eliminate the negative consequences. In the future, we will definitely ensure that all those responsible are held accountable,” he said.

Large-scale floods affected several regions of Russia at once, the Orenburg, Kurgan and Tyumen regions suffered the most. To date, more than 14 thousand houses in 30 regions of Russia have been flooded. At least 7 people became victims of flooding in the Orenburg region.

Earlier, residents of the Orenburg region accused the Ministry of Emergency Situations of showing off. At a meeting with local authorities, citizens were outraged that they could not get real help from rescuers, who, according to them, were only engaged in filming stories for a “beautiful picture” on TV.

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21726

A useful reference point, we will have to pay attention to Russian photos of spent missiles showing the date codes of production.  From past encounteres we saw that the earliest cluster versions, the Block I were being used in Ukraine with date codes from 1997 and 1998.  There is evidence of more 300km Block 1A's being available, also with cluster munitions and also being GPS guided.

We still don’t know how many ATACMS Ukraine is set to receive, only that they will receive them, but here to repost @ColbyBadhwar graph displaying the amount of expired ATACMS. Would be criminal if we didn’t pass them off to Ukraine especially with PrSM being received. pic.twitter.com/jJ13YAAO9k

Dillon Payton  (@dillonrpayton) April 23, 2024

Blinken just landed in China.
No red carpet.
No band.
Im surprised they allowed the plane to even land.
Couple of weeks ago they told grandma Yellen to GTFO.

Raytheon recently broke ground on a 26K sqft expansion of its Redstone Missile Integration Facility, which will ?? the factory's space for delivering on programs by 50%. It currently handles 9 variants of the Standard Missile & will be home to the future Glide Phase Interceptor. pic.twitter.com/H6wCo2fyII

— AirPower 2.0 (MIL_STD) (@AirPowerNEW1) April 24, 2024

Frequent visitor of 1420 here. I don't see any videos deleted. He announced in a stream four weeks ago that the 'man on the street' interviews were pretty much over. He did one more stream a week later, then silence. AFAIK, the videos are still all there. The channel does have a title change to "archives of 1420," which would be consistent with the formal ending of street interviews. He was the most prolific street interviewer. There are a few other outlets that produce far less content and have much less visibility. Danill will be missed. I hope he didn't get mobilized/conscripted.

It might be a good idea for someone smarter than me to list the Chinese companies on Alibaba that supply drone components to Russia and North Korea in this thread.

For reasons.

Basically, this could be the strategy for Ukrainian forces to blunt Russian assaults in the coming days.  Lobbing guided weapons at longer ranges like the Russians have been using as a tactic with their UMPK glide bombs.

Certainly an interesting choice. I am not aware of any glide kit for Paveway IV.

Effective employment will require lofting them from very close to the front line. Invites dramatically greater risk than JDAM-ER or AASM employment. https://t.co/KKvRVZQ2PD

— John Ridge \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@John_A_Ridge) April 24, 2024

Doubt he moves the needle on anything China is doing

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/Blinken-lands-in-China-on-tough-mission-to-curb-support-for-Russia-s-war

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2 hrs ago.

Occupied Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast, very recently.

I wonder if the katsaps had a SAM on that hill?#OSINT #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #UkraineKrieg #Ukraine #Russia

Re-Tweet Appreciated pic.twitter.com/60yJ7K8XGZ

— OSINT (Uri) \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6 \uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 \uD83C\uDDEE\uD83C\uDDF1 (@UKikaski) April 24, 2024

1/2 Guerre d'Ukraine | 23/04/24

Secteurs :
\uD83C\uDF10 Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar\uD83D\uDD39U240423-0957
\uD83C\uDF10 Avdiivka-Ocheretyne\uD83D\uDD39U240423-1009
\uD83C\uDF10 Zoom Avdiivka-Ocheretyne\uD83D\uDD39U240423-1028
\uD83C\uDF10 Marinka\uD83D\uDD39U240423-1016#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine pic.twitter.com/Ud3QcLI15k

Poulet volant  (@Pouletvolant3) April 24, 2024

Nosering, anime, trans & orcs aka NATO is about to FAFO lmfao

#US #Defense Awards Contract to #Oshkosh for #ROGUE-Fire Units https://t.co/xAi3Rf2k9g

Army Recognition  (@ArmyRecognition) April 24, 2024

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_april_2024_global_security_army_industry/us_defense_awards_contract_to_oshkosh_for_rogue-fire_units.html


These are remotely driven vehicles that can carry anti ship weapons like Tomahawk and NSM, or Himars rounds and be located all over the Pacific.





Carrying a Tomahawk.

He telegraphed his intentions. He is there to ask China to stop supporting Russia. China has already said go suck it.

The problem is, China thinks Blinken is a fucking idiot. Most of the world thinks Blinken is a fucking idiot. As a diplomat, he is an abject failure. He is a failure of USA policy, and he will be remembered as a failure.

China thinks what the USA is doing in Ukraine is stupidly foolish. It doesn't make good strategic sense, and China and the CCP are acting like the State Department has rabies. They don't understand why such mistakes are being made. The Chinese are asking themselves how can the USA make such bad decisions diplomatically. This is not a republican or democratic issue, it is a diplomatic strategy issue.

The Chinese think the USA has miscalculated with Russia, and they are going to use that to their advantage.

Blinken is on the way out, he will be gone soon, so the Chinese are giving him a cold shoulder.

Sorry, I can't sugarcoat it. The truth hurts.

They are going to treat him accordingly.

What do you get paid in comrade?

Rubles? Rials? North Korean Won? Yuan?

I focused on Europe response as losing EU trade would be a death blow to China and it seems Europe half heartedly pressed China to withdraw support from Russia but never made a firm ultimatum to China. Apparently some European countries economies are wobbly and fear of loss of trade with China has mitigated any strong pressure on Beijing regarding the war in Ukraine

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311151.shtml

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\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83D\uDE4F WESTERN ASSISTANCE UPDATE

\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 The positive vote of the U.S. Congress is the most anticipated news from our partners.

\uD83D\uDCAA Decisions on providing Ukraine with four additional PATRIOT air defence systems are being prepared.

\uD83C\uDDE9\uD83C\uDDF0 An agreement was reached on Denmark's transfer… pic.twitter.com/n8A0jSlXMK

The Ukrainian Review  (@UkrReview) April 24, 2024

Russian infantry being picked off.

\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 The 3rd CSP OMEGA unit eliminates enemy infantry on the outskirts of the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/pmEfhfddvx

TOGA  (@TOGAjano21) April 23, 2024

So this was apparently a poorly executed personnel rotation that allowed a big Russian advance.

\uD83D\uDE14 "The leadership of the 115th Mechanized Infantry Brigade is to blame for the failure of the Ocheretyno defence, allowing significant losses in killed, wounded and missing", - DeepState

??At the same time, officer of the 59th Mechanized Brigade Serhiy Tsekhotsky said that… pic.twitter.com/2cRHF8nbqH

— MAKS 23 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83D\uDC40 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) April 24, 2024

Running out of armored vehicles for the front, as in the past week or so there has been footage of Russian assaults at the front with vehicles like this instead of tanks and IFV's.

Russian armoured vehicle completely cowered with anti drone cages pic.twitter.com/690ezHbBvx

— Special Kherson Cat \uD83D\uDC08\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@bayraktar_1love) April 23, 2024

/2. Russian MT-LB with anti drone cageshttps://t.co/aXWYicCYaR pic.twitter.com/5YQrIMrx4u

— Special Kherson Cat \uD83D\uDC08\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@bayraktar_1love) April 23, 2024

russian Mad-Max Assault Ural yolo's towards Robotyne and worse - kinda of succeeds by reaching the trench at 47.435013, 35.845076 - abandoned there

If the concept is a one-way vehicle to bite into a trench I guess it worked.

Video speed 150%@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap pic.twitter.com/7EJaEw2qlx

— PJ "giK" (@giK1893) April 23, 2024

Overall Path visible in the video. Disembarked infantry continued towards the treeline outside of the trench and gets DPICMed. Unclear how many jumped into the trench and hide their thermal signature. pic.twitter.com/kPrOz67APN

— PJ "giK" (@giK1893) April 23, 2024

US Officials Doubt China’s Stealth Bomber Can Rival American Designs.

US intel confident that China’s forthcoming long-range stealth bomber, the Xian H-20, will not match up to American B-2 or B-21 designs.

Story here:https://t.co/I7Fdl1nOfA

The Aviationist  (@TheAviationist) April 24, 2024

https://theaviationist.com/2024/04/24/us-officials-on-china-stealth-bomber/

Can’t find the post I wanted to reply to, all the traveling I’m not getting much sleep, I’m sure it’s here but 2 people mentioned air defense, I believe OP and another person

Anyway I think Latvia is donating short range and Denmark is providing something significant, sorry I’ll edit the post with info when my coffee kicks in and this was also worth reading

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/04/23/netherlands-ukrainian-air-defense/

Don't feel too bad, we all have those posts where others can tell the coffee hasn't kicked in yet.

Yeah saw some articles on that previously

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They call us a nazi. Which has nothing to do (for them) about antisemitism but instead about being anti-marxism...

Soon...

DARPA tests fully unmanned robotic fighting vehicleshttps://t.co/EgrE3sh5Wb

— Defence Blog (@Defence_blog) April 24, 2024

Now put the above, combined with the targeting AI the Army is working on, and put them into this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2023/09/11/army-heeds-lessons-of-ukraine-rethinks-how-abrams-tank-will-fight-and-win-tomorrows-wars/?sh=57f0b12147db

That Death Wish coffee seems to work best for me but I mistakenly thought this was one of their new products, apparently it’s a totally different coffee company

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Edit it’s Death Wish coffee not Death coffee


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\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 "The format of aid to Ukraine from allies will change: instead of individual aid, there will be a coalition approach", — MoD of Ukraine

??Countries will combine their efforts and resources to provide Ukraine with exactly the help it needs most at the moment. pic.twitter.com/0rZckzhvBk

— MAKS 23 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83D\uDC40 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) April 24, 2024

lol, I think we all need that kick in the pants each morning to just function at times.

I'm gonna have to look for that and try it, it does sound good.

The Russians can launch missiles into Ukraine with cheap cargo ships and skeleton crews from the Black Sea.  They are focusing on expanding their northern and Pacific fleets.

The only way Ukraine wins their territory back is for NATO to directly intervene with airpower and ground troops.  That won't happen unless China invades Taiwan or Russia pushes into the Baltics.

It tastes exactly as the label says “French toast”

But on a side note the Kia Niro the car rental company provided sucks - I hate driving this thing

Wait, GD thinks this is a "new" axis? I was having discussions with friends about this "new axis" in 2008 lamenting the C team Obama was bringing in to handle foreign policy.