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Posted: 2/22/2017 6:26:37 PM EDT
So lately I've seen a few people float the opinion that wait times should start coming down in the next couple of months and that doesn't make sense to me.
As someone who bought in September I wish, but I don't see how. In fact as we get closer to June/July I think wait times will get longer. I assume more and more people filed as the deadline came. And it's not like the ATF has to get them done in a year. The ATF could still be doing June/July in August September. It's not like June/July will come and all of a sudden the wait time will fall off a cliff. I'm so pissed of about it but I'm guessing I won't see my can until at least thanks giving maybe Christmas. 12-13 months. |
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There's nothing to be mad about. Such is life
Wait times should go down after they peak with late June/early July submissions (like mine) |
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That is why I haven't purchased anything since 1/4/2016 as I just don't care enough to wait that long to take my purchase home.
My last Spectre II is my last NFA purchase unless the HPA passes in which case I will buy a 9mm can and then be done with NFA stuff after that. |
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There's nothing to be mad about. Such is life Wait times should go down after they peak with late June/early July submissions (like mine) View Quote maybe I'm nit wording it correctly. Just because July was the deadline doesn't mean wait times will start going down this July They only finish let's say 1000 a month(just an example). Before the 41p rush the average they got is, let's say, 1200 a month. Then all of a sudden they got, 1500 in April, 2000, in may, 2500 in June, and 3500 in July. They still only finish 1000 a month. So in November they still aren't caught up. And there most certainly is something to be mad about. Unconstitutional infringement for starters. Bullshit wait times designed to turn people off to the process which in turn accomplishes the governments goal of less stuff in civilian hands, et cetera |
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maybe I'm nit wording it correctly. Just because July was the deadline doesn't mean wait times will start going down this July They only finish let's say 1000 a month(just an example). Before the 41p rush the average they got is, let's say, 1200 a month. Then all of a sudden they got, 1500 in April, 2000, in may, 2500 in June, and 3500 in July. They still only finish 1000 a month. So in November they still aren't caught up. And there most certainly is something to be mad about. Unconstitutional infringement for starters. Bullshit wait times designed to turn people off to the process which in turn accomplishes the governments goal of less stuff in civilian hands, et cetera View Quote I believe he was saying once all of the pre 41F forms have been completly processed and they start post 41F, then wait times may drop at that point, whenever that point is. |
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I believe he was saying once all of the pre 41F forms have been completly processed and they start post 41F, then wait times may drop at that point, whenever that point is. View Quote My bad. Sure, they will drop like a rock then. If I buy another and HPA doesn't pass I'll wait until I see the times start to drop in the time pending thread. |
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I believe he was saying once all of the pre 41F forms have been completly processed and they start post 41F, then wait times may drop at that point, whenever that point is. View Quote This. The big question is how long it will take to process the pre 41F forms and how much of a backlog this will cause. I have that picture of the Silencer Shop pickup truck with all boxes in the bed stuck in my head... |
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Your thread title got me excited. That excitement was short lived.
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Waiting for a trust form 1 mailed on July 11. Haven't even called to see when (if) it went pending; just put it in the wait file.
When that one clears, assuming some possibility of chronological continuity (try saying that fast three times), it should indicate the start of post 41F processing. I'll post when it arrives. But, I believe the last big part of the suppressor form 4 bulge (mid April through May) is passing right now, and not from June-July submissions, because... So many stores I visited had empty shelves for a long time prior to July 13. My local shop was backordered on everything from everybody. They could have sold ten for every one they received. Except for TSS, and maybe any others with an arrangement that let them get all the paperwork (from dealers all over the country) in the mail until the last day, not too many others were contributing much in the last couple of months. Always appreciate having my opinions contradicted with facts. |
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I don't get why everyone makes a huge deal about wait times. It's life. Deal with it. Buy your can and forget about it. In a month or two buy another and forget about it. Repeat. Soon enough that can you bought and forgot is ready to be picked up and it feels like Christmas. Yes, I know it sucks and I don't like it either but it is what it is and getting hung up on your wait time isn't going to do you any good. Chill, bro.
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Back when the real cost of ownership of a MG was feeding the damned thing, a form 4 could take nearly 2 years.
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I don't get why everyone makes a huge deal about wait times. It's life. Deal with it. Buy your can and forget about it. In a month or two buy another and forget about it. Repeat. Soon enough that can you bought and forgot is ready to be picked up and it feels like Christmas. Yes, I know it sucks and I don't like it either but it is what it is and getting hung up on your wait time isn't going to do you any good. Chill, bro. View Quote Pretty much this. I figured the sooner I bought, sooner I'd get to finally play with the cool kids. Besides, time will fly by and I'll be plinking before I know it. Unless I die before approval, then I'll be pissed. |
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Hope you guys are in before these if not it's gonna be a while
Silencer Shop $2,000,000 in tax stamps submitted in one day So thats 10,000 Form 4's Silencer Shop submitted from 2 days sales on July 11th & 12th. I don't know how many forms the ATF processes in a month but thats a lot. I say at least a 12 month wait for late June to July 13th submissions (getting close to that now at a 9+ month wait). I hope I'm wrong as I have 3 pending from late June. |
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Waiting for a trust form 1 mailed on July 11. Haven't even called to see when (if) it went pending; just put it in the wait file. When that one clears, assuming some possibility of chronological continuity (try saying that fast three times), it should indicate the start of post 41F processing. I'll post when it arrives. But, I believe the last big part of the suppressor form 4 bulge (mid April through May) is passing right now, and not from June-July submissions, because... So many stores I visited had empty shelves for a long time prior to July 13. My local shop was backordered on everything from everybody. They could have sold ten for every one they received. Except for TSS, and maybe any others with an arrangement that let them get all the paperwork (from dealers all over the country) in the mail until the last day, not too many others were contributing much in the last couple of months. Always appreciate having my opinions contradicted with facts. View Quote Your post actually got me excited that I might be wrong before I saw Volfans. Lol |
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Hope you guys are in before these if not it's gonna be a while Silencer Shop $2,000,000 in tax stamps submitted in one day So thats 10,000 Form 4's Silencer Shop submitted from 2 days sales on July 11th & 12th. I don't know how many forms the ATF processes in a month but thats a lot. I say a 12 month wait for late June to July 13th submissions (getting close to that now at a 9+ month wait) View Quote Yup. We are fucked. 12-13 months?! Pffff. Probably wrong there too. Probably a lot more than that. |
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Ehhh, whatever. I just purchased a new can about a month ago. I'll get it when I get it.
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Repost of mine from another thread:
What people are not realizing is that the wait times are not following a linear progression. Example in a "Normal" situation a form submitted in let's say May 2016 that is approved in February 2017 would mean that a form submitted in June would come through one month later and July a month after that. With a situation in which more and more forms are submitted each day into a system with a limited amount of output, a parabolic trend is formed by the backlog. This creates a system where a 1 to 1 delay in submission of the forms results in a several day delay on their approval. As we approach the July 13, 2016, 41F deadline, the number of forms submitted each day increase astronomically resulting in approval times that in my opinion will easily exceed one year, possibly 18 to 24 months! The one bright side to this situation is that for anyone submitting forms after the 41F deadline where submissions drastically decreased is those forms should see a sharp decrease in approval times as the backlog is cleared! |
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I'm picturing one single guy with a mountain of forms behind him, while all of his co-workers are out selling loosies to get rid of the evidence.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/23/atf-agents-smuggled-millions-dollars-cigarette-sales-secret-bank-account/ I see only one solution that will both speed wait times, and allow for a reduction in force to comply with the upcoming budget. The HPA. Yay! Then I can go get my can off of my SBR in NFA jail. |
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Your post actually got me excited that I might be wrong before I saw Volfans. Lol View Quote Some bumps in the road, for sure. I specifically mentioned TSS, as they controlled almost half of the form 4 submissions, according to the link. I'd much rather see HPA pass before finding out how the wait times have passed. |
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Repost of mine from another thread: What people are not realizing is that the wait times are not following a linear progression. Example in a "Normal" situation a form submitted in let's say May 2016 that is approved in February 2017 would mean that a form submitted in June would come through one month later and July a month after that. With a situation in which more and more forms are submitted each day into a system with a limited amount of output, a parabolic trend is formed by the backlog. This creates a system where a 1 to 1 delay in submission of the forms results in a several day delay on their approval. As we approach the July 13, 2016, 41F deadline, the number of forms submitted each day increase astronomically resulting in approval times that in my opinion will easily exceed one year, possibly 18 to 24 months! The one bright side to this situation is that for anyone submitting forms after the 41F deadline where submissions drastically decreased is those forms should see a sharp decrease in approval times as the backlog is cleared! View Quote This is exactly what I was trying to convey. But times won't drop after the deadline. It will be well after. After they get back to a 1 to 1 approval time. I have my doubts but I'm crossing my fingers for the HPA. |
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So, by not buying until wait times drop, you have still delayed your possession of the NFA item.
Don't see how that has helped your cause much, if any. |
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My check was cashed early December 2016. Taking bets on which month I'll get my stamp.
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Individual or NFA trust? I'm in for the same date, trust. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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My check was cashed early December 2016. Taking bets on which month I'll get my stamp. Individual or NFA trust? I'm in for the same date, trust. I wouldn't look for it this year! I'd say June-December of 2018 and no I'm not kidding. |
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Nobody has mentioned anything about Eforms........... Some quick looking (very quick, so correct me if you find i'm wrong) shows me that there were something in the neighborhood of 8,000 to 9,000 eforms submitted in the month of JUNE. Now, once they get all the eforms processed, which should be in the next month or two max.......that is going to free up a lot of examiners to work on paper forms. Personally, i'm optimistic about wait times getting back to normal or better with in the next 5 to 6 months. And i'm not counting on HPA at all.
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Nobody has mentioned anything about Eforms........... Some quick looking (very quick, so correct me if you find i'm wrong) shows me that there were something in the neighborhood of 8,000 to 9,000 eforms submitted in the month of JUNE. Now, once they get all the eforms processed, which should be in the next month or two max.......that is going to free up a lot of examiners to work on paper forms. Personally, i'm optimistic about wait times getting back to normal or better with in the next 5 to 6 months. And i'm not counting on HPA at all. View Quote That was my remaining hope, but I've lost my hope for noticeable improvements. The extra examiners won't make a dent in the mountain of forms from buyers and dealers that procrastinated, like silencer shop. |
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That was my remaining hope, but I've lost my hope for noticeable improvements. The extra examiners won't make a dent in the mountain of forms from buyers and dealers that procrastinated, like silencer shop. View Quote Again.....quick math here.....but they are doing in the neighborhood of 1000 eforms a day. That's 20 days for that silencershop batch, if they do half that on papers. I'm not worried.... |
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Again.....quick math here.....but they are doing in the neighborhood of 1000 eforms a day. That's 20 days for that silencershop batch, if they do half that on papers. I'm not worried.... View Quote But that was just silencer shop. That's 20 extra days on top of exponential growth of wait times as the July cutoff approaches. They are a huge dealer but they aren't the only ones. I'm guessing thousands of other buyers and dealers waited until the last few days before submitting. Hundreds more probably submitted after the cutoff. |
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I bought a Spectre II in May of '16, pre 41F, still waiting. Got my SAS Barricade from a month earlier back in December. After the Spectre, I bought an SS Sparrow post 41F in July of '16. I'm 61. I hope I live long enough to get to try them.
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But that was just silencer shop. That's 20 extra days on top of exponential growth of wait times as the July cutoff approaches. They are a huge dealer but they aren't the only ones. I'm guessing thousands of other buyers and dealers waited until the last few days before submitting. Hundreds more probably submitted after the cutoff. View Quote That number is JUST the examiners that are currently working on eforms.....And lets not underestimate SS's overwhelming market share....And i promise after they work through pre 41f..........wait times will collapse.... You could be right and its going to be ridiculous wait times of well over a year....but i doubt it..... When i first started collecting stamps, wait times were nearly a year. My first one came back in just over 4 months. I'm betting the next one i buy will be the fastest yet... |
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This is exactly what I was trying to convey. But times won't drop after the deadline. It will be well after. After they get back to a 1 to 1 approval time. I have my doubts but I'm crossing my fingers for the HPA. View Quote Your whole post seems to be based on your mistaken interpretation of what other people are saying. No one I have seen have said that wait times will slow down on the anniversary of 41F, or a specific date, or even month. The idea that I've seen people suggest (and I agree with them), is that wait times will drop significantly once the ATF gets to the forms submitted after the deadline. In other words.... once the ATF finishes all the forms submitted in the lead up to 41F. So while it might take until October 2017 to get your July 2016 Form 4 back, it might only be a couple months later you'll see your November 2016 Form 4. You seem to have interpreted the idea of "after the deadline" to mean a specific date, but the amount of time it takes them to get through all those is anybody's guess. We all agree that wait times will drop significantly after that, whenever it is. |
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Your whole post seems to be based on your mistaken interpretation of what other people are saying. No one I have seen have said that wait times will slow down on the anniversary of 41F, or a specific date, or even month. The idea that I've seen people suggest (and I agree with them), is that wait times will drop significantly once the ATF gets to the forms submitted after the deadline. In other words.... once the ATF finishes all the forms submitted in the lead up to 41F. So while it might take until October 2017 to get your July 2016 Form 4 back, it might only be a couple months later you'll see your November 2016 Form 4. You seem to have interpreted the idea of "after the deadline" to mean a specific date, but the amount of time it takes them to get through all those is anybody's guess. We all agree that wait times will drop significantly after that, whenever it is. View Quote Well said. We know the curve on process time is growing exponentially. What we don't know is when we will hit the "cliff" on the other side where approvals may be in a just few months. I'll be filing some this week so it will be interesting to measure these against those in the 41F craze. |
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That was my remaining hope, but I've lost my hope for noticeable improvements. The extra examiners won't make a dent in the mountain of forms from buyers and dealers that procrastinated, like silencer shop. View Quote Whose to say SS procrastinated? Perhaps Their customers all got the info in last minute, or SS's volume warrants a pick up truck every week, or other day, or maybe as 41FuckYou approached, a pick up every day.... One thing is obvious though, and that is once the pre 41 FuckYou Forms are done, IF ATF keeps on extra examiners AND continues to pay OT, which seems unlikely to me, time with drop precipitously. JPK |
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This. The big question is how long it will take to process the pre 41F forms and how much of a backlog this will cause. I have that picture of the Silencer Shop pickup truck with all boxes in the bed stuck in my head... View Quote The picture of all the forms they sat on mailing for no logical reason? |
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July and waiting, but when they're approved they are approved. But being my first suppressors I be lieing if I said I did not get frustrated sometimes by the wait. I'm only human
Now I got my form 1 back in 5 months for a sbr |
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The picture of all the forms they sat on mailing for no logical reason? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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This. The big question is how long it will take to process the pre 41F forms and how much of a backlog this will cause. I have that picture of the Silencer Shop pickup truck with all boxes in the bed stuck in my head... The picture of all the forms they sat on mailing for no logical reason? *golf clap* Come on, man. How else do you expect them to get that picture? Gotta hold back a bunch of forms to get a money shot like that. |
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Your whole post seems to be based on your mistaken interpretation of what other people are saying. No one I have seen have said that wait times will slow down on the anniversary of 41F, or a specific date, or even month. The idea that I've seen people suggest (and I agree with them), is that wait times will drop significantly once the ATF gets to the forms submitted after the deadline. In other words.... once the ATF finishes all the forms submitted in the lead up to 41F. So while it might take until October 2017 to get your July 2016 Form 4 back, it might only be a couple months later you'll see your November 2016 Form 4. You seem to have interpreted the idea of "after the deadline" to mean a specific date, but the amount of time it takes them to get through all those is anybody's guess. We all agree that wait times will drop significantly after that, whenever it is. View Quote I don't have the time to look specifically but I've seen more than a couple of posts from people saying how wait times will drop once the deadline date comes. Maybe that's not specifically what they meant. I don't know. I'm just going off if what I've seen posted. Either way it doesn't look good IMO. |
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Your whole post seems to be based on your mistaken interpretation of what other people are saying. No one I have seen have said that wait times will slow down on the anniversary of 41F, or a specific date, or even month. The idea that I've seen people suggest (and I agree with them), is that wait times will drop significantly once the ATF gets to the forms submitted after the deadline. In other words.... once the ATF finishes all the forms submitted in the lead up to 41F. So while it might take until October 2017 to get your July 2016 Form 4 back, it might only be a couple months later you'll see your November 2016 Form 4. You seem to have interpreted the idea of "after the deadline" to mean a specific date, but the amount of time it takes them to get through all those is anybody's guess. We all agree that wait times will drop significantly after that, whenever it is. View Quote I don't have the time to look specifically but I've seen more than a couple of posts from people saying how wait times will drop once the deadline date comes. Maybe that's not specifically what they meant. I don't know. I'm just going off if what I've seen posted. Either way it doesn't look good IMO. |
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Whose to say SS procrastinated? Perhaps Their customers all got the info in last minute, or SS's volume warrants a pick up truck every week, or other day, or maybe as 41FuckYou approached, a pick up every day.... JPK View Quote There has been at least one person that's made a post that they purchased from SS a few weeks before the cutoff and was assured the forms would be immediately mailed. The person(s) later did follow up and learned their forms were held by SS and finally mailed just a day or two before the cutoff. |
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Nothing is coming down until the backlog is gone. So once the last silencer purchased the last day before 41f is approved, the time will be at their lowest in years. Maybe down to a month or two. But that is still 5 to 6 months off.
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There has been at least one person that's made a post that they purchased from SS a few weeks before the cutoff and was assured the forms would be immediately mailed. The person(s) later did follow up and learned their forms were held by SS and finally mailed just a day or two before the cutoff. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Whose to say SS procrastinated? Perhaps Their customers all got the info in last minute, or SS's volume warrants a pick up truck every week, or other day, or maybe as 41FuckYou approached, a pick up every day.... JPK There has been at least one person that's made a post that they purchased from SS a few weeks before the cutoff and was assured the forms would be immediately mailed. The person(s) later did follow up and learned their forms were held by SS and finally mailed just a day or two before the cutoff. SS is slow as shit in my personal experience (multiple purchases). Great service, and innovative ways to purchase. But they aren't speedy. That's not the end of the world for me because nothing about this process is fast. That said, anyone who waited until the zero hour of 41F was playing with fire and really have themselves to blame more than any other factor. |
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This next week is 11 months for my oldest, that means it was a full 3 months before 41F. I would only expect them to be well over a year on the pre 41F submissions.
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Nothing is coming down until the backlog is gone. So once the last silencer purchased the last day before 41f is approved, the time will be at their lowest in years. Maybe down to a month or two. But that is still 5 to 6 months off. View Quote Yup. HPA or no I'll be buying more then. In fact I sorta hope it doesn't pass so there will be suppressors in stock to buy lol. Just kidding. Sorta. |
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A guy on NFATracker posted his check was cashed 6/1 and he got his stamp last week. What was the cutoff for 41whatever? July?
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A guy on NFATracker posted his check was cashed 6/1 and he got his stamp last week. What was the cutoff for 41whatever? July? View Quote Postmarked by July 12th. I procrastinated and have 2 forms mailed on July 12th. Don't think I will see them by summer '17 but who knows at this point. |
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I submitted a paper Form 1 for a 9mm Silencer for a Trust I am a party to.
Sent June 15, check cashed June 21, approved February 21. 8 months to the day. Just waiting on the stamp now. |
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How do you know if your check was cashed? On SS it just shows my form 1 disposed date and form 4 submit date (7/7/16). Thought I'd read somewhere that it only says check cashed briefly and then it changes.
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