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Posted: 2/6/2020 1:01:11 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
OP no longer updating this? 
I'm going to try to get into my office today. Apologies. |
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Posted: 2/6/2020 3:10:51 PM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've been dying from the standard flu and confined to mobile the last couple days.
I'm going to try to get into my office today. Apologies. Don't die. Feel better. |
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Posted: 2/7/2020 11:42:03 PM EST
[#3]
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Posted: 2/8/2020 6:48:00 AM EST
[#4]
I am sitting in Thailand. Scheduled to return to USA February 17. Wondering if any of you have real insight into the chances a quarantine is begun before then? Trying to decide if I should bolt and get home now.
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Posted: 2/9/2020 2:39:07 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I am sitting in Thailand. Scheduled to return to USA February 17. Wondering if any of you have real insight into the chances a quarantine is begun before then? Trying to decide if I should bolt and get home now. Try to keep this thread for data updates, etc. Only you can answer that question, but if I was there & able to leave i’d do it now. Stay safe, practice good hygiene & social distancing. Good luck. This thread is for general discussion, questions, preps, travel, etc. |
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Posted: 2/9/2020 4:02:04 PM EST
[#6]
I am finally feeling much better.
I'm going to be doing the next update later today. |
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Posted: 2/9/2020 6:28:55 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I am finally feeling much better. I'm going to be doing the next update later today. |
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Posted: 2/10/2020 4:06:39 AM EST
[#8]
Alibaba was on a tear until this hit:
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BABA Not really surprising, who wants to order stuff from China that often shows up in a few days (well under virus survival time limits). Anything from China I want on a slow boat (30 days) plus another week or three in domestic delivery. US is viewed as "safe" which is keeping our market propped up. |
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Posted: 2/11/2020 11:46:02 AM EST
[#9]
What the flock is with those people?
CHANTILLY, Va. (AP) — A package of tiny dead birds passed off as pet food was confiscated by Customs agents at a Virginia airport.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection says the package came in to Dulles International Airport on a flight from Beijing on Jan. 27... |
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Posted: 2/12/2020 5:33:15 AM EST
[#10]
2/11/2020 OP Archive
Interactive Map 
 Attached File Attached FileYoutube Playlist with good info on the Virus. (Thanks to Brass for Finding this one)  Coronavirus Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment, & Vaccine Status (Recorded January 27, 2020) Important Links New England Journal of Medicine Landing page for all thing 2019-nCoV WHO report on 2019-nCoV Wiki Page CDC Page on 2019 Novel Coronavirus BNO News Case Tracking Chart *GREAT RESOURCE UPDATED CONTINUOUSLY* Wikipedia Timeline of the Virus Outbreak The Lancet reports on 2019-nCoV |
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Posted: 2/12/2020 5:35:31 AM EST
[#11]
I'm finally no longer sick.
New data, new charts. I made these, so if there is an error, let me know and I will correct it. I will be doing a new map to come, and I will be doing a 5 day trendline graph as well to make the mondo graph a bit smaller and easier to digest. 
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Posted: 2/13/2020 1:11:34 AM EST
[#12]
China has not released national figures yet today
They were supposed to over 6 hours ago... I will be updating again after the next national update |
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Posted: 2/15/2020 3:07:07 AM EST
[#13]
Note the 14 day lagging data now coming into view on fatality rates:
Also discontinuities ("resets") as Chinese authorities change reporting criteria. Follow: https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender 
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Posted: 2/16/2020 6:20:19 PM EST
[#14]
Bimp with a pic SCMP is using in ads
Almost like a touch of Edvard Munch... |
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Posted: 2/18/2020 11:09:26 PM EST
[#15]
Watching CFR's beginning to ever so slowly converge
Discontinuities are due to either massive new cases/fatalities reported or the Chicoms faking numbers to make Xi look good.
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Posted: 2/21/2020 11:47:06 AM EST
[#16]
Chicoms building NINETEEN more "makeshift hospitals" in Wuhan
Note there is ZERO isolation between beds. 
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Posted: 2/22/2020 1:55:58 AM EST
[#17]
Latest
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Posted: 2/22/2020 5:44:26 AM EST
[#18]
Beginning to see convergence on case fatality rate
Disclaimer: may be higher if Chinese deaths are being hidden. Rates in other countries may be lower depending on how well avoiding being overwhelmed they will be. For now, non-Chinese resources greatly exceed #'s of pts. Opposite of what is happening in China. |
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Posted: 2/24/2020 1:02:45 AM EST
[#19]
Most outlets haven't caught wind of this breaking news:
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Posted: 2/24/2020 1:55:08 AM EST
[#20]
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Posted: 2/24/2020 1:56:54 AM EST
[#21]
Fatalities over 2600
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Posted: 2/26/2020 10:37:03 AM EST
[#22]
Re: Trump speech tonight
He's got Dr. Fauci heading up his advisory team which is very good. Fauci is arguably the most capable, competent expert the .gov has on infectious diseases. Limiting spread of Cordobavirus will require people follow some.basic hygiene steps, which most people don't. So a Presidential speech reminding them to do so or pointing the masses to the appropriate CDC or other webpage is entirely appropriate. Additionally, I'm getting emails from some suppliers that Chinese production is slowly ramping back up. Which is good for stocks. Example: End of January notice: https://www.ledil.com/news_all/ledil-status-update-update-on-potential-coronavirus-impact-on-deliveries/? Status from 2/17 https://www.ledil.com/news_all/ledil-status-update-update-on-potential-coronavirus-impact-on-deliveries-3/ Status from this morning: https://www.ledil.com/news_all/status-update-update-on-potential-coronavirus-impact-on-deliveries/ So it's a hiccup, albeit a significant one. Not a Y2K-like megadisaster. Short term headache for sure, but light at the end of the tunnel. |
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Posted: 2/26/2020 11:48:16 AM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Chicoms building NINETEEN more "makeshift hospitals" in Wuhan Note there is ZERO isolation between beds. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERTkZrQWAAEQLmw?format=jpg&name=large |
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Posted: 2/26/2020 6:49:55 PM EST
[#24]
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Posted: 2/26/2020 6:58:57 PM EST
[#25]
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Posted: 2/26/2020 7:15:53 PM EST
[#26]
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Posted: 2/27/2020 11:48:07 PM EST
[#27]
First-world vs third-world medicine will be on full display (not to mention general hygiene practices, which TBQH, aren't that hot in "civilized" countries)
Biggest problem is the lefty ninnies, who will object to any global travel restrictions. It is technically VERY, VERY easy to sterilize products for commerce. It is technically far more challenging to assess carriers of Corollavirus. The "thermometer knows all" solution is incomplete. Plus you have the unknown element of anarchists, terrorists, leftists and what have you. Then to cap it all off, an agenda-driven media and insider-riddled markets... |
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Posted: 2/28/2020 12:25:58 AM EST
[#28]
I didn't realize anyone still cared about this thread.
I should make more graphs |
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Posted: 2/28/2020 12:29:19 AM EST
[#29]
Read somewhere that most of us get a Coronavirus at some point in our lives. Not sure what the big deal is. Symptoms sound like every other sickness.
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Posted: 2/28/2020 12:34:26 AM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Read somewhere that most of us get a Coronavirus at some point in our lives. Not sure what the big deal is. Symptoms sound like every other sickness. China has always had the coronavirus "that most of us get... at some point in our lives", but there's never been anything like this before seen in the world during our lifetime. What is novel? |
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Posted: 2/28/2020 1:54:15 AM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I didn't realize anyone still cared about this thread.
I should make more graphs Can you make more graphs and update the title and OP with new information? Otherwise this thread is just sort of clogging things and might cause confusion. |
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Posted: 2/28/2020 5:46:23 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: "... a coronavirus..." vs this coronavirus. China has always had the coronavirus "that most of us get... at some point in our lives", but there's never been anything like this before seen in the world during our lifetime. What is novel? |
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Posted: 3/1/2020 12:59:26 AM EST
[#33]
Here's a short (25 minute) podcast by a highly regarded Harvard Epidemiologist on the outlook for this virus:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-coronavirus-isnt-going-away/id1460055316 Worth a listen |
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Posted: 3/1/2020 1:23:34 AM EST
[#34]
Latest video from Peak Prosperity, there wasn't a new video from MedCram today.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVQC1hAYZBs[/youtube] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVQC1hAYZBs |
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Posted: 3/3/2020 4:27:36 AM EST
[#35]
SCMP updates
In the firing line: the women in China’s war on the coronavirus Perhaps more importantly: Apple supplier Foxconn to resume normal production in coronavirus-hit China by end of March |
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Posted: 3/6/2020 3:03:31 AM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
SCMP updates https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/methode/2020/03/03/ba49314a-5c7e-11ea-be3e-43af5536d789_image_hires_111151.jpg In the firing line: the women in China’s war on the coronavirus Perhaps more importantly: Apple supplier Foxconn to resume normal production in coronavirus-hit China by end of March A lot can change. |
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Posted: 3/6/2020 12:03:56 PM EST
[#37]
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Posted: 3/7/2020 3:30:39 AM EST
[#38]
Vid from Iran showing bodies stacking up in morgue
 Corona virus in iran real footage Qom was apparently where it started. Meanwhile, back home... 
CDC needs gutted. Maybe abolished altogether and turn disease control over to another agency. After all this of course, changing horses in midstream has challenges. UK numbers 
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Posted: 3/7/2020 3:30:29 PM EST
[#39]
Best tweet so far...
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Posted: 3/9/2020 12:43:22 AM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Vid from Iran showing bodies stacking up in morgue  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBqR2RLstoc
Qom was apparently where it started. Meanwhile, back home... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EScI23eXkAYozY1?format=jpg&name=medium CDC needs gutted. Maybe abolished altogether and turn disease control over to another agency. After all this of course, changing horses in midstream has challenges. UK numbers https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/03/06/20/25640884-8082855-image-a-43_1583526838454.jpg |
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Posted: 3/14/2020 8:14:43 AM EST
[#41]
Keepin this thread on life support because it's a handy notepad for data w/o superfluous noise.
From a thread on CFR can't be caluclated: Sure you can, as long as the data is legit (China is not). Calculate separately for EVERY country, because protocols and culture matters. Maybe even down to state or regions in the US. Crowded lefty cities will be different than stand offish small towns. Yes, it lags. Watch it a few weeks and see where convergence is headed. Here: 
Note how the "shifts" in Chicom data line up. Xi ordered draconian measures at the beginning if Feb (3rd, IIRC), and *immediately* cases and deaths began to decline. Which is obviously BS. The shifts however may have legitimacy as people were locked in at home. That stops pandemics (eventually). Math and stats are beautiful, and reveal much. |
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Posted: 3/15/2020 11:39:37 PM EST
[#42]
This isn't particularly encouraging: the US appears to be tracking Italy...
All the people not taking the threat seriously. Know a few personally who are otherwise intelligent people (though liberal, so no common sense) 
Source Media is battering the sheep with Corollavirus 24x7. Massive problem. Stampeding the herd. Honestly if it wasn't an election year, say next year, I'd be all for Trump nationalizing the media and throwing the shitheads off the air. Let them rant and screech on Youtube. ETA: even though I think Chicom numbers are BS, I do think their locking people down, in retrospect, was probably the right solution. And may be the right solution everywhere, if only to flatten the curve and hopefully get some off-label tx + more test kits and PPE supplies online. Vaccine research must be white-hot. Whoever wins the race and patents it will make a fortune. |
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Posted: 3/18/2020 2:04:05 AM EST
[#43]
Daily notes:
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Posted: 3/18/2020 2:21:06 PM EST
[#44]
Some notes on old vs. young
In general, children seem to be absent from the fatalities reported in most countries (I do not consider any Chinese data after Feb 3rd legit) Also, the elderly and those with underlying conditions, usually acquired rather than innate, have higher risk. Younger pts exist, but are fewer and further between. So what does that mean for the world? If some Soros or Gates wanted to wipe the older civilized populations and replace them with aboriginals... 
Not saying it was designed that way, but Italy, for example, is taking a beating. Part due to age, part due to anecdotal lack of infection control. Japan has a homogeneous, obedient, clean-conscious society, so they're handling it about as best as can be expected. 
Countries with high, young immigrant populations may exhibit dramatic cultural shifts, depending on virus progression. "New World Order" indeed. |
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Posted: 3/21/2020 6:13:45 AM EST
[#45]
A simple graph to explain to people why this is worse than "the flu"
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Posted: 3/22/2020 2:42:59 AM EST
[#46]
Couple more pics for the reference library
Curve flattening vs. Actions taken (UK proposal)  Handy little graphic of MERS viral replication and other odds n ends from this Older HK / Chinese article on Corona viruses 
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Posted: 3/22/2020 4:58:23 PM EST
[#47]
Daily update.
 Exponential growth continues, despite some smaller countries (SK) having their shit together. |
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Posted: 3/22/2020 6:22:18 PM EST
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Daily update. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETvdfBtXYAgJPBY?format=jpg&name=large Exponential growth continues, despite some smaller countries (SK) having their shit together. Rehosted @ imgur for those with twitter blocked at work, etc  |
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Posted: 3/23/2020 1:16:56 AM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryThank you. Evdefender has been shadowbanned by Twitter (posts verifying such in his feed) and I would not be surprised if they outright pull the plug on him. Along with tracking COVID, he's been dogging Musk for some time. That doesn't go well with SilValley where Musk is worshipped. Elon btw is now pitching "he'll build millions of respirators" which is to deflect from his major issues with his other ventures. Anyway, back to the virus, it will be interesting to see how the shutdowns of the next two weeks impact the growth of new cases. My personal view is 2 weeks is the minimum to get usable data and the most they could sell without crashing the economy. It think there will be some decrease in rate of growth, which will be used to further extend shelter in place nationally. By then, hopefully there will be enough data and supply of the Plaquenil/Zinc/Z-pak fix to roll it out en masse and start reopening businesses. If all goes well, looking at June for good control over expansion and effective treatment to knock CFR way down. Fingers crossed, but it's gonna be a bumpy ride for a bit. Mostly thanks to the media, who is driving the panic. ETA: Italy is just getting hammered ITALY CASES Updated Mar 23 at 5:11 AM ET Confirmed 59,138 +5560 (+9.4%) Deaths 5,476 +651 (+11.9%) Recovered 7,024 +952 (+13.5%) The perventages are just starting to turn the corner, remember deaths and revovered lag new cases by ~2 weeks and >2 weeks respectively. In comparison: UNITED STATES CASES Updated Mar 23 at 5:21 AM ET Confirmed 35,418 +8307 (+23.4%) Deaths 473 +133 (+28.1%) Recovered 175 People in the US not taking this seriously will be responsible for a LOT of deaths. We're going to pass Italy within a week or so. Not good. |
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Posted: 3/23/2020 4:45:25 AM EST
[#50]
Great comparison of CFR's by country.
South Korea got it right. Whether they were running the Plaquenil/Zinc/Z-pak fix, extensive testing or some other combination is unknown. The generally More intelligent South Korean population recognized the threat, took it seriously and responded accordingly. In this country we have nitwit spring breakers now getting and spreading infection, and hordes of low-intellect morans claiming it's "just the flu" Numbers don't lie, especially documented fatalities. 
Shadowbanned, so go to his Main page |
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