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An interesting article on the wet market which was shut down at the end of December.

Here's the price list from one stall for raw critter vittles sold there:

https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/01/22/8aca80f6-3cc4-11ea-a16e-39b824591591_972x_232543.JPG

why-wild-animals-are-key-ingredient-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak

https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/methode/2020/01/22/c3a363de-3d0a-11ea-a16e-39b824591591_image_hires_232543.jpg

Once the virus had jumped to humans, and HTH transmission established, the wet market became only a footnote.

Quoted:
Thanks for data op?

Quoted:
11:11 pm

7783 confirmed

170 deaths

133 recovered

Quoted:
11:11 pm

7783 confirmed

170 deaths

133 recovered

Quoted:
11:11 pm

7783 confirmed

170 deaths

133 recovered

Quoted:
Keep this thread going. It's much more informative than the other

Updated January 23, 2020

CDC Situation Summary
CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (termed “2019-nCoV”) that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which continues to expand. Chinese health officials have reported hundreds of infections with 2019-nCoV in China, including outside of Hubei Province. Infections with 2019-nCoV also are being reported in a growing number of countries internationally, including the United States, where the first 2019-nCoV infection was detected in a traveler returning from Wuhan on January 21, 2020.

Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBankexternal icon, the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAIDexternal icon) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus.

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, some causing illness in people and others that circulate among animals, including camels, cats and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can evolve and infect people and then spread between people such as has been seen with MERS and SARS.

When person-to-person spread has occurred with MERS and SARS, it is thought to have happened via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory pathogens spread. Spread of MERS and SARS between people has generally occurred between close contacts. Past MERS and SARS outbreaks have been complex, requiring comprehensive public health responses.

Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, suggesting person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.

Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The situation with regard to 2019-nCoV is still unclear. While severe illness, including illness resulting in a number of deaths has been reported in China, other patients have had milder illness and been discharged.

There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Risk Assessment
Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s not clear yet how easily 2019-nCoV spreads from person-to-person. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.


What to Expect
More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. Given what has occurred previously with MERS and SARS, it’s likely that some person-to-person spread will continue to occur.

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Now 4 chinese cities are quarantined.

11 million Wuhan
7 million Huanggang
1 million. Ezhou
1/2 million Chibi

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Great map for close to real time mapping and numbers.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The case fatality rate has dropped to 2.17%.
Still no deaths outside China.

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Closing in in 10K

9776 cases confirmed (9658 in China)

213 deaths

187 declared recovered

As new case numbers continue to rise sharply, any estimates of any "trending rates" cannot be relied upon. They are simply a snapshot in time that do not reflect those pts currently infected who will ultimately die or survive.

If, for example, all new cases stopped today, precisely at 10,000, some of those pts would die and the rest would recover. We cannot assert what either value will be, other than to state that it will be somewhere between 213 and 9823 deaths total and somewhere between 187 and 9787 survivors.

Based on known survivors where the disease has resolved vs deaths, one might presume a mortality rate of (213/(213+187)) but this would also be premature, as it takes longer to verify someone is cured than to verify someone has expired.

Put simply, no trends of any sort can be ascertained beyond "we're seeing more pts".

Over time, particularly as multiple areas where cases are not experiencing exponential patient growth yield survivor/morts numbers, we'll get a much better sense of where ultimate rates may be expected to settle.

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So, I should delete the % change column?

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As new case numbers continue to rise sharply, any estimates of any "trending rates" cannot be relied upon. They are simply a snapshot in time that do not reflect those pts currently infected who will ultimately die or survive.

If, for example, all new cases stopped today, precisely at 10,000, some of those pts would die and the rest would recover. We cannot assert what either value will be, other than to state that it will be somewhere between 213 and 9823 deaths total and somewhere between 187 and 9787 survivors.

Quoted:

This is not accurate. The logic that all "trending rates" cannot be relied upon leaves us nothing to guide response and planning, quarantine procedures, etc. Are rates going to change? Of course, we have to understand that, but lets also understand the science behind epidemiological calculations such as CFR and their utility during an outbreak. Each individual contracted the virus at different times, a "rolling" or "continuous" rate allows us to view the outbreak in a manner that allows that "rolling infection rate" to have meaning. Take the CFR since the first case, we can see it relatively steady throughout deaths, recoveries, and new cases. This s a coronavirus, infecting individuals at differing points in time, its not going to suddenly kill 60% of those infected outside the timeline of the virus. A continuous "rate" like CFR gives us the ability to intelligently predict how many of those 10,000 would die or survive. Its the best we have and its whats being used to protect you at the highest levels here.

Unfortunately the OP has a grossly false "mortality rate" and hence my posts to bring some more facts and truth to the thread. Again, we have experts in the field, heads of infectious disease response units, directors of emergency medical task forces, physicians, etc. We are on the front lines (hell I've treated several PUIs (patient under investigation)) and are giving you the facts as used by the medical professionals combating this outbreak. Take it or leave it, but understand your choice.

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I've included the CFR because of your posts in this thread and others, as I recognize my non-scientific x number of people have recovered or died y died and z recovered isn't "accurate"

I'm currently looking at doing an offset CFR at 7, 10 and 14 day intervals. Total number of deaths today divided by confirmed cases 7, 10 and 14 days ago to get more accurate picture of what we are looking at.

I'd love to hear any input you may have as far as what you would like to see. I have no agenda, I have no interest in fear mongering or spreading rumor or false information. I want to present the facts as we have them. I'm using 3 separate data sets in the interest of presenting factual information.

@Estxdr

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OP is attempting to amalgamate the data we do have.  We can't judge it, we know it's fishy but they're the best guess we can come up  with.   Please discuss methodology/accuracy in the other, long thread.

Even if it is not 100% accurate, it is excellent to look back on in the future and compare what the news is to what we were told and what we assumed.  Or when the next one happens in a decade, we'll have an idea of what's accurate and not.

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*snipped*

I'll step out and let you guys continue.

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I can appreciate that, and I appreciate your adding the CFR. Understand this is what I do, and am involved in this at some of the highest levels. One of our major concerns is panic and false information, its why I've been so vocal about the false mortality rates being passed around. You're doing fine collecting data, I'll step out of the threads.

We can judge it, we have better, and experts have "come up with" more accurate info.
But when the experts feeding you information from the highest levels are asked to pipe down in lieu of known inaccurate information, thats my clue to move along.
I'll step out and let you guys continue.

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Wife is a plant manager and just told me that two of their suppliers in China of raw materials were closed til the 9th due to the virus.

Quoted:

I really appreciate your input, I will make some changes to the next update so I no longer show the 50% mortality rate.

I want the info to be accurate, and I don't want to spread misinformation. China does enough of that as it is.

I'd love to hear any other comments or input on how to make it better.

I'm in the process of updating everything again, but I'm converting everything to charts instead of the table.

Quoted:

I understand what you are saying and why you are saying it. Logistics absolutely does require some sort of a ballpark estimate for allocation of resources. I also agree that a fatality rate of 50% is overestimated and why. Where I take exception is your repeated assertion that CFR is dropping. If this outbreak were not experiencing an exponential growth, one might be able to make that claim. Right now, we are seeing large and increasing daily increases (increasing increases refers to taking a simple derivative)