Could be. Didn't factor that in. A lot of people are going to be pissed if that's the case.

Centralized control is taking choice away from lower levels, down to the individual.

The more centralization, the more choice is taken away.

The more you take away a man's choice, the more you take away the ABILITY to

make a choice.

I now finally understand a line from Frank Herbert's Dune where the main character

thought about giving orders and then refrained with the thought:  "Once one gives

an order about a thing, one must ALWAYS give an order about that thing."

That's quite an insight that will go underappreciated by most. I hate to admit that I read the books a few decades ago and didn't appreciate it at the time.

It's a helluva insight into why centrally controlled governments fail at basic tasks and the apparatus fumble in apparent darkness during crises.
We are seeing it happen in real time. It's a shame so many in China will suffer in the near future because of it...

Show me where the seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 54%?

Where are you getting 54%?

The “official” number of infected vs number died in China is like 3% or less. Which is still potentially epidemic-level.

Check the OP, I have all the info there.

Attached File

the latest numbers as of 12am PST  1-25-2020

56 dead, 2055 cases.

Confirmed in California - Chinese Health Commissioner "The contagiousness of the virus is getting stronger. Unlike SARS the carrier can effect people even if they show little or no symptoms".

And it can be transmitted without symptoms

So, the best is yet to come.

China is at a crucial time to prevent and control the novel #coronavirus outbreak, a senior health official said at a press conference Sunday. The one-week Lunar New Year holiday is the best time to allow massive isolation and disinfection to take effect. https://t.co/aJdnLJrz10

— People's Daily, China (@PDChina) January 26, 2020

One week isolation for an up to 14 day incubation isn't going to fix the problem.

Understood they are trying to prevent a panic, but off the record, everyone there who is not under strict quarantine orders has to be scrambling. Many to unass the areas. And go somewhere where there is adequate medical care. That means the EU and US.

Can somebody do up a nice flowchart to 'splain morbidity and mortality rates for this?

Nice block diagram with:

Pt shows up sick
Pt suspected/not suspected of having Wuhan
Suspected Wuhan pt treated/not treated
Treated/untreated suspected Wuhan pt recovers
Treated/untreated suspected Wuhan pt does not recover.

Once that is done, in a nice graphical format, it may explain to people where percentages of people getting sick, and recovering or dying comes from.

The question has been repeated frequently enough that a diagram may help.

On phone, so I can't do it. Someone want to give it a shot?

Thanks!

Go to page one and look at the OP

Confirmed case in Orange County California.

Just up the road.

Fatality rate is calculated with number dead and number recovered.

You can’t include those still infected until they either die or get better.

I assume, and maybe I’m wrong, that the Chinese aren’t really even recording recoveries because they’re so overwhelmed. The fever breaks and they boot the person for the next sick individual. So there might be skew in that way.

#Breaking: 33 out of 585 samples collected from a Wuhan seafood market tested positive for the novel coronavirus, suggesting the virus originated in wildlife sold there, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention told CCTV. #WuhanCoronavirus pic.twitter.com/6Dev7zK0tz

Global Times  (@globaltimesnews) January 26, 2020

Yep.  It is so simple and it is so profound at the same time. Everyone understands that if you take a man and strap him to a chair for one year and you do not let him move, then when you take off that strap at the end of the year and tell him to rise and walk that man isn't going anywhere. His muscles have atrophied.

Why do we think that the muscles of the Mind are any different?  If you do not let a man make a decision about anything, and I do mean anything, for one year, and then you ask him what do you want what do you think his answer will be?

It's like in the Shawshank Redemption, when Redd gets out and he can't go to the bathroom without being given permission.

Their medical staff can't make a decision because their medical staff has never been allowed or expected to make a decision.

Second case in California and new case in Arizona - confirmed

BREAKING: 1st confirmed case of coronavirus in Los Angeles County, 4th in the U.S. https://t.co/XQhLD5wMuG

BNO Newsroom  (@BNODesk) January 26, 2020

BREAKING: Arizona reports first case of coronavirus, 5th in the U.S. https://t.co/XQhLD5fb66

BNO Newsroom  (@BNODesk) January 26, 2020

The fourth and fifth U.S. cases of Wuhan #coronavirus were confirmed on Jan. 26, with Los Angeles County officials announcing one case and officials in Maricopa County, #Arizona, announcing another.https://t.co/RcGW7ctXay

— NTD News (@news_ntd) January 26, 2020

Four people in New York are being tested and in isolation for possible coronavirus infection
NY

One confirmed negative. Three still in quarantine.

This is incorrect. That severely OVERestimates the fatality rate and is not the process used in medicine or epidemiology. At best its pseudoscience.
The true Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is determined by number of death over number infected. This can skew the numbers to UNDERestimate actual deaths but much less than the previous method overestimates.
Anything other than that is pure speculation and sensationalism. Sure its great for retailers of moon suits and gas masks, but does little to actually give you a valid idea of the process going on.
The other issue is how do you define "recovery" and what are its limitations? That severely skews the numbers as well. The only reliable and reviewed, proven method is CFR and its < 3% at this point (and dropping).

Is there any literature on that?  I think over time as more and more numbers come in, the two approaches would begin to converge.  That is, after the epidemic is over the hump and on its way out, less and less patients are unresolved, making the first approach begin to be more and more accurate.  Eventually they are all resolved and there is your real number.  I suppose the trick is getting as accurate as possible in the beginning, when there are a lot more unresolved cases than resolved ones.

I would also think that early on, using only resolved cases to estimate the number would create a selection bias in that you are only accounting for those patients that either (a) got over it very quickly, or (b) succumbed very quickly.  Interesting to think about.  I have no experience with this, so just thinking it aloud.

Any updates on the two suspected cases in Minnesota?  Confirmed positive or negative?  Location in MN?

Yeah, there is a plethora of literature on it.
The problem is that unless the process (virus) is world ending lethal, the first approach skews towards deaths at the expense of the length of time it takes to recover or declare recovery. CFR is a much true-er number since nothing is really that lethal (except in the movies) and we tend to focus on exact death numbers while dropping non-death numbers at times. To my knowledge all the deaths are elderly with comorbidities, much like flu, etc. The fact that we know how viruses work and can avoid them is also important to note.

Bottom line is, the most accurate number by far is the cfr. Period.

TAMU student has been cleared.

No nCoV in the Brazos Valley...for now.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Test-results-show-Texas-AM-patient-does-NOT-have-coronavirus-567311791.html

Thinking along the lines of a decision tree flowchart.

Not that important.

Will be interesting to see what happens after Lunar New Year when 100's of millions return to work. Note that Wuhan is a key hub in the heavily-used and modern Chinese rail network.



Maybe they'll reroute or maybe just not stop in Wuhan.

Initial data:

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/clinical-characteristics-of-the-first-2019ncov-cases-in-wuhan-china

"Clinical Characteristics of the First 2019-nCoV Cases in Wuhan, China

JAN 24, 2020 | MICHAELA FLEMING

Cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated in China, have now spread to Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, and the United States. Over 557 cases of the novel virus have been confirmed as of January 23, 2020.

On January 24, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed a second case of 2019-nCoV in a female patient in Chicago. The patient visited Wuhan and returned to Chicago on January 13 but was not ill while traveling. Two cases of 2019-nCoV were also confirmed in France, according to reports by the Associated Press.

A team of investigators from Wuhan, China, have also released an article detailing the clinical characteristics of the first 41 patients infected with 2019-nCoV. Their article, featuring information on epidemiology, laboratory, and radiology elements of the initial cases confirmed in Wuhan was published in The Lancet.

According to the investigators, characteristics were determined by analyzing data from laboratory-confirmed cases of the virus via real-time polymerase chain reaction and next-generation sequencing. Data were also obtained from forms shared by the International Severe Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. The team also communicated directly with patients and their families to collect symptom data.

All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. By January 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been confirmed to have 2019-nCoV infection.

Symptoms

The article notes that 73% of the infected patients were men and the median age of patients was 49 years (interquartile range IQR: 41.0-58.0). Twenty-seven of the 41 patients were exposed to the Huanan seafood market and 1 family cluster of 2019-nCoV infection was observed. In total, 32% of patients had underlying diseases which included diabetes (8), hypertension (6), cardiovascular disease (6).

Common symptoms at the onset of illness included fever (98% of cases), cough (76%), myalgia or fatigue (44%). Less common symptoms that were recorded included sputum production (28%), headache (8%), hemoptysis (5%) and diarrhea (3%).

Dyspnoea developed in 55% of patients (median time for illness onset to dysponea 8.0 days (IQR: 5-13)). In 63% of the patients, lymphopenia was observed. Abnormal findings on chest CTs were observed for all 41 patients..."


This highlights a couple things:

It takes longer to declare someone as "survived" the virus than those who succumb. This will skew the (52%-ish death rate mentioned frequently) of the virus. It will be lower, but how much lower remains to be seen.

The initial deaths aren't that old (41-58 yrs IQR) and comorbidities (32% of patients had underlying diseases) were not a prerequisite for an adverse outcome.

This makes some sense, as the very old and very sick would not likely be wandering around the wet market.

HTH transmission on the other hand has been confirmed, and how efficiently the disease transmits is unknown. A food market where people might be handling virus-laden meats or animal corpses is an obvious easy route for transmission. The human to human retransmission efficacy is less certain.

It leads back to the concept of massive infectious dose: if you get blasted with virions at the market, your system can be quickly overwhelmed. If you contract the disease from more casual contact, your body has a better chance of mounting a successful defense.

That being said, even if the ultimate death rate drops to 20 or even 10%, the potential for huge numbers of victims and significant panic remains. It's still winter, so ambient temperatures will remain conducive to extended survival of the virus outside a host. Instead of days, weeks of survival are possible. This then impacts the supply chain of goods for the rest of the world. While many high-value product (semiconductors, for example) are frequently air-freighted out of China, the bulk of goods are transported by truck, rail & marine. A virus able to survive an arduous journey clinging to product destined for a Walmart invokes an entirely new set of risks and perceptions.

Keeping an eye on new vectors (rats on ships, for example) opens up a new set of challenges.

It may not be the perfect storm for a pandemic, but it's darn close.

Planning to update the OP in the morning.

I, have gotten sick with something

TL;DR of tomorrow's update: 1,500 new cases, 40+ new deaths

An interesting article on the wet market which was shut down at the end of December.

Here's the price list from one stall for raw critter vittles sold there:



why-wild-animals-are-key-ingredient-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak



Once the virus had jumped to humans, and HTH transmission established, the wet market became only a footnote.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

This article from the other thread talks about it showing up back on Oct 1, and also talks about it possibly not originating at the wet market.

It's often an interesting bit of detective work tracing anything back to its root cause.

On Jan 24th, China released the 2019-nCoV corona virus sequence to the world. Interestingly, its closest known relatives, as in virus genomes, are two corona viruses that live in Chinese bats. These are SARS-like viruses that were isolated in 2018 and are called ZC45 and ZXC21.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/12/2/135/htm

These two pathogens share 89% of the sequence identity of the "novel" corona virus that is currently fucking up the planet. They were discovered by researchers in China who actually uploaded their sequences to the global database, stating that they came from the R. sinicus bat.

Heres a funny thing, the reason that these are KNOWN viruses and that their RNA is on file, is that the Chinese epidemiology people, specifically the ones working for the military were looking at them as early as 2015. They even wrote a fucking paper about it:

"Genomic characterization and infectivity of a novel SARS-like coronavirus in Chinese bats"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6135831/

Download that, its a really fun read. Specially the part where they claim that these viruses can make the jump to other mammals.

In the credits, the researchers turn out to be from the Department of Epidemiology of the Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, and the Department of Epidemiology, Research Institute for Medicine of the Nanjing Command. These are fucking military PLA research facilities.

This paper has serious implications.

1.- It shows that the Chinese have done EXTENSIVE testing of these bat viruses in lab rats. They knew everything about how the transmission came about.

2.- Officially it is SARS research, but it is being funded and conducted by the PLA, and that means that it has biological warfare ramifications.

3.- It totally explains the "mystery" of how it jumped to humans and it discredits the bat soup theory.

4.- This is very strong evidence of an escaped Chinese biological sample since 89% the genome can be traced back to the original viruses these guys were messing around in a documented set of experiments in 2018.

(I use the word sample, because no one would be stupid enough to make a biological warfare agent with genome fingerprints that would allow it to be traced it back to your unique fauna. Or maybe they were.)

5.- This just one of many academic papers describing their research into bat vectored viruses.

The virus sequencing studies reveal that there was a "one time only jump" that occurred between Oct 30th and Nov 29th that allowed this thing to go from bats to humans. The mutation that made it more people friendly is hard to explain in a natural context, and it is easier to explain as an accidental modification that occurred to the virus when it entered the animals they experimented with, or as a result of sequence modifications made by the PLA.

Amusingly the lab that manages these evil pathogens is the "Chinese Academy of Sciences", a facility in Wuhan, a lab 20 miles from the current pandemic's "purported" ground zero. The fucking French sold them the technology, and this facility was modeled on the P4 French virus research lab in Lyon.

Fun link:
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/824572-discussion-chinese-academy-of-sciences-cas-in-wuhan-has-been-working-with-bats-and-coronavirus-for-many-years-dna-manipulations-cloning

Since their level 4 Biological Research facility is 20 miles from the farmers market/petting zoo that sells all the batshit crazy animals that are the centerpiece of  exotic Chinese cuisine, it is the perfect cover story for a leak from this facility.

This document explains the reason why the Winnie the Pooh program freaked out and went into full retard mode so abruptly, deciding to quarantine 60 million people, because they know EXACTLY what this thing is.

They also know that there is no way anyone is producing a vaccine for this pathogen anytime soon. That sort of thing will take at least 8 months to be completed. And even if they did had a vaccine available tomorrow, the horse has already bolted, and vaccinating 1 billion Chinese guys in the next four weeks is a logistical nightmare.

The production of such a large quantity of vaccine would take all the facilities on the planet to breaking point. Besides that, the rest of the world is going to be needing vaccines at a global scale.
And even then, the virus can mutate and then the vaccines go to all to hell.

Given the current sketchy cover up
info, Niel Ferguson at Imperial College  research estimates the number of infected at 100,000 people. That number is going to progress exponentially in the next 2 weeks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak

Great Report:

Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736

As a biological weapon, a virus of this type has interesting applications. Since the Chinese are now in the colonization game, they spend most of their time subverting little countries with lots of natural resources. They don't do brute force takeovers, instead they play the 4th generation warfare game and empower evil regimes all over the planet.

Like all things in 4th generation warfare, the creation of actual casualties is only secondary to creating a state of panic, fear and distrust against the governing system you are targeting. Once you discredit a regime, you place your puppet government in charge and take over the place.

To accomplish this from a  biological warfare perspective, you don't need a very deadly virus, you need a very scary and very stealthy virus, preferably one with a long incubation period and a plausibly deniable origin. This is probably why these assholes spent so much time studying the ZC45 and ZXC21 viruses, because these things get transmitted during the incubation periods without the host showing symptoms.

Traditional cold war battle field biological weapons were designed to produce mass casualties in a short time frame. In todays world, an agent like this would be identified in a short period and contained immediately. In contrast, an asymptomatic transmission virus like this corona virus, can go relatively unnoticed until its too late.

To maximize the effect of the weapon, you need large crowds and a really fun migratory event like say, the Chinese lunar new year celebration, in order to spread it. You also need to camouflage the initial out break, and what a better time to do it than in the middle of Chinese flu season, where the first few cases will be written off as simple seasonal flu.

You also need to know how your target will respond, based on previous experiences to exploit their failings. In this case, the initial coverup reaction can be predicted just by looking at the idiotic shit the Chinese did during the 2002 SARS crisis in the extensive reports that outline the CCP failures during their previous disaster.

The goal of a next generation weapon like this is not to wipeout a large number of people. The goal here is to collapse and discredit the target state's government by creating mistrust and chaos at a large enough scale to turn the population against it's rulers.

The Chinese would use it to destroy confidence in a government in order to subvert smaller nations all over the third world. Ironically this is what is going to happen to them in the next few months.

Weather it's release was natural, accidental, or intentional, we will never know. But I am loving the fucking irony of it, because this thing has the potential to destroy the Chinese system in the same way that these motherfuckers had envisioned using this type of weaponry to destroy governments in smaller nations.

The timing of this outbreak is terribly auspicious. You have the trade talks, Chinese new year, a trade war on hold, hong kong in open rebellion, and lots of pissed of Chinese gazillionaires that want a more democratic form of government.

This was a preventable event. And if SARS taught us anything, the Winnie the Pooh Program will only assist the pathogen to kill more people through ineptitude and mismanagement. The Chinese Communist Party does not give a fuck who dies, they want to contain this thing as much as possible, and they will go to very ugly extremes to achieve it, giving this thing the potential to result in widespread revolt.

A disaster of this magnitude could not have happened to a nicer bunch of guys. Remember, these assholes are the largest threat to democracy on the planet, and their coronavirus is going to fuck things up royally for them. Yes, we are looking at a global pandemic, and alot of people on our side will die, but on the bright side, it will help rid the planet of the Chicoms.

We should welcome the corona virus as the "mandate from heaven", that is an ancient Chinese belief where all ruling dynasties come to an end with a big supernatural event, which is the universe's way of telling the Winnie the pooh program to step aside and that it is time for new leadership.

^^^^ That's certainly an interesting point of view.

There have been several posts citing a ZeroHedge article, raising suspicions that two Chinese researchers working in Canada were sending data to the Chinese Biological Warfare Program. Any mention of ZeroHedge is immediately is shouted down on this forum as being non-credible conspiracy theory.

Here is an interesting article that appears more legit that may support the ZH claim:

Chinese researcher escorted from infectious disease lab amid RCMP investigation

Attached File

Or under 3% like it is right now and holding steady throughout new cases and deaths.

WTF???

Illness is not treated and discriminated against.  People are crazy.  A Wuhan man was killed in Sichuan after being reported.

Where can I provide psychological help?#coronavirus #CoronaVirusCanada #coronavirus #coronaphobia #coronovirusoutbreak #CoronavirusOutbreak pic.twitter.com/jYRPVsCBbQ

Harry Chen PhD  (@IsChinar) January 27, 2020

Attached File


Attached File

Can’t spread if you just kill them

I'm not one to instantly jump on the conspiracy bandwagons but I agree with a lot of what you said. It's a biological weapon. Whether it was intentionally released or accidentally escaped, that becomes the next question.

Although it's difficult to say right now with the amount of disinformation and things to sift through, there are several concrete things that are suspect. Timing being one of them. Locale being the other. Type of virus. Researchers under investigation with work tied to that virus. Chinese researcher escorted from infectious disease lab amid RCMP investigation

It starts before Event 201 with various warnings about safety protocols that the Chinese weren't following and investigations into biological samples that were sent improperly to China, but the fact that a simulation of this viral outbreak was done right before this puts it on the radar.

Although that simulation showed it originating from South America; why simulate a Coronavirus above all else? Why now?

Bill Gates Predicted Coronavirus Like Outbreak in 2019 Netflix Documentary titled 'The Next Pandemic' It aired on November 7th 2019.



It's not even 20 miles to that seafood market from the BSL-4 facility. It's less.



The area data isn't loading since the province is on lock down but I'm willing to bet that it's not even 20 miles from that market to Wuhan International Airport.

Wiki

Talk about a cluster fuck of coincidences. Long incubation period, check. BSL-4 nearby, check. Social gatherings as propagation vectors, check. And a fucking international airport to top it off.

A very informative read based on the compilation of sources and research, despite the tinfoil conclusion: https://web.archive.org/web/20200129044538/https://medium.com/@siradrianbond/coronavirus-2019-ncov-part-1-d6a338eed7c5

"The GPS is down since the province is on lock down but I'm willing to bet that it's not even 20 miles from that market to Wuhan International Airport."

lol doing online maps do not require GPS

Also GPS down there maybe more like they are just blocking more online mapping program access if you are in that area.  Locking down GPS could cause what airplanes are flying near there some issues (they can overcome it but just a pain in the ass).

Sorry, I misspoke. I tried it on my phone and online, and got the same result. When I said GPS I meant that the data for that particular area isn't working, you're correct.

ah cool DU (oh man maybe not the best short cut )

It's honestly the perfect launch point for a disease. Sounds like some crazy event people trying to reduce the planets population would do.

I believe it's just the poor hygiene practices by the Chinese that caused it.

Spot-on IMO. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out their likely first target either with all the recent goings-on in Taiwan, this is how they were gonna finally get 'em, not by invading but by infecting. With half of Taiwan sick and the other half trying to care for them, they would have BEGGED the Chicoms to come and help them, and China would have gleefully rolled in tanks along with all the "aid".