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Posted: 9/27/2020 4:22:18 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It might have the impressive torque to get it done for one lap; but lacks the suspension and brake engineering that comes with decades of track wins. Now do that for 24hrs like Porsche does. Like shooting a MINI14 next to a HKPSG1 and saying -- " see, I can hit the target too". Everyone goes  Oh, yeah. We got us a buggy-whip manufacturer here... And it's 1892. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 5:05:31 PM EDT
[#2]
To all the naysayers, we aren't far from widespread EV. I'm saying that without government mandates, within 20 years, there will be more EVs sold than ICE cars. I wouldn't be surprised by this happening within ten years.
If the base model 3 gets below $30k, there will be a lot of them on the road. Yes most people still want a car for long road trips, but most people have access to two vehicles. Teslas are in a pretty good place to be used as commuter vehicles right now. People will want the low maintenance and operating cost of EVs. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 5:18:49 PM EDT
[#3]
It's a shame teslas look so bland.
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Posted: 9/27/2020 5:22:21 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LoL That’s awesome Like being in the rear seats of a Comanche Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: How does a sedan seat up to 7? It's been an option for years. https://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Tesla-Model-S-3rd-Row-Seats-e1379317106445-1280x720.jpg Only really fits kids though, like the backseats in a Porsche. LoL That’s awesome Like being in the rear seats of a Comanche A few years ago I came up behind a Mercedes wagon that shockingly had rear facing seats in the back,I didn’t know these things still existed in anything. There were 2 small boys in the back and I was on my Aprilia and thought “well hell,I’ll do a little burnout for them” and stewed up the back tire. The one kid glared at me and shook his head. Kids these days  |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 5:37:35 PM EDT
[#5]
That's insane fast.
Even with awd, I'd imagine the tires are a huge limiting factor with those acceleration times. Can you imagine the carnage when mustang drivers get ahold of them? |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 5:44:59 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: To all the naysayers, we aren't far from widespread EV. I'm saying that without government mandates, within 20 years, there will be more EVs sold than ICE cars. I wouldn't be surprised by this happening within ten years. If the base model 3 gets below $30k, there will be a lot of them on the road. Yes most people still want a car for long road trips, but most people have access to two vehicles. Teslas are in a pretty good place to be used as commuter vehicles right now. People will want the low maintenance and operating cost of EVs. Last year, EV sales accounted for 1.9% of US sales. There isn't enough battery production capacity, development time, or demand to bring that to 50% in a decade. It would take an extreme push to get the number to 25% in 20 year (that is an increase of 1200%). |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 5:53:55 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:  yeah that about sums up your argument @jos51700 |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 5:58:35 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I heard that in '96. It doesn't look that different, to me, yet. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We aren't even close to that day yet, but 20 years from now it will look a lot different. I heard that in '96. It doesn't look that different, to me, yet. Looks a lot different to me. 20 years ago I’d yet to see an electric on the road. Now I see several daily. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 6:00:14 PM EDT
[#9]
Camaro?
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Posted: 9/27/2020 6:42:31 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol, actually there are no longer fed tax credits if you buy a Tesla. However, Ford, GM, etc will qualify for those fat tax credits once they start offering their EVs. You gonna complain about them too? As I posted before, GM’s tax credits are gone. They sold over 200,000 Volts. Many manufacturers are in the cool down period for theirs too. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 6:51:25 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Last year, EV sales accounted for 1.9% of US sales. There isn't enough battery production capacity, development time, or demand to bring that to 50% in a decade. It would take an extreme push to get the number to 25% in 20 year (that is an increase of 1200%). Ford will have at least two battery only EV’s on dealership lots by next year. They have plans for more. GM will have several more models available in the next 2-3 years. They will start selling their new battery platform very soon. There are electric only auto companies getting ready to start selling cars. Lucid and Rivian are the big ones. I’m involved in a tri-motor EV project at my work. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least 20% of all new cars sold in 2030 being electric and another 20% being hybrids. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:10:32 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't even have an argument. I am just observing and laughing at you. The new Tesla is cool and I'm not even a fan of electric cars. The numbers are impressive coming from a gas car guy. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: You are just an old man yelling at clouds now. Everyone is tuning you out. Thats fine, doesn't change the fact your argument is wrong bud. I don't even have an argument. I am just observing and laughing at you. The new Tesla is cool and I'm not even a fan of electric cars. The numbers are impressive coming from a gas car guy. I have a suspicion that the same people bitching are the same guys that bitch about "boomers" that don't like pc tuning , turbos , and fuel injection |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:14:45 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ford will have at least two battery only EV’s on dealership lots by next year. They have plans for more. GM will have several more models available in the next 2-3 years. They will start selling their new battery platform very soon. There are electric only auto companies getting ready to start selling cars. Lucid and Rivian are the big ones. I’m involved in a tri-motor EV project at my work. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least 20% of all new cars sold in 2030 being electric and another 20% being hybrids. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Last year, EV sales accounted for 1.9% of US sales. There isn't enough battery production capacity, development time, or demand to bring that to 50% in a decade. It would take an extreme push to get the number to 25% in 20 year (that is an increase of 1200%). Ford will have at least two battery only EV’s on dealership lots by next year. They have plans for more. GM will have several more models available in the next 2-3 years. They will start selling their new battery platform very soon. There are electric only auto companies getting ready to start selling cars. Lucid and Rivian are the big ones. I’m involved in a tri-motor EV project at my work. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least 20% of all new cars sold in 2030 being electric and another 20% being hybrids. 20% is too high for EV's in a decade. Maybe hybrids can get that high based purely on an increased reliance from the manufacturers on the tech (driven by government mandates), but outside of a fuel crisis, the option is now available with very little to any tradeoff and the numbers are still low. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:20:54 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Unless you have enough money to buy a Senna, there’s no other production car faster than the “gay” Tesla at Laguna Seca. Unless you have to run more than 3 laps. Put it on the ring and see how long it lasts. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:23:33 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I always love the retards who can't accept that this is the future of auto tech. "It no make vroom vroom sound, it no good, me no like" ETA: Have fun dealing with the anger when these gap you in the 1/4, they're only going to get better. LOL. The fastest cars at the strip for now and the forseeable future are liquid fuel powered. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:36:03 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 20% is too high for EV's in a decade. Maybe hybrids can get that high based purely on an increased reliance from the manufacturers on the tech (driven by government mandates), but outside of a fuel crisis, the option is now available with very little to any tradeoff and the numbers are still low. You will be surprised. The Austin Gigafactory is rumored to have an eventual capacity of 2m+ per year and 200-400GWh of battery production. That's 10% of North America's sales alone. Tesla is planning for 3TWh and 10m globally by 2030. 2m+ per year at GF Austin (Rumors are it will be largest car factory in the world) 2m per year at GF Berlin 1m+ per year at GF Shanghai and 600k per year at Fremont That's ~6m right there. The new "Roadrunner" cells massively cut down on CAPEX costs. The little 10GWh/year pilot line in Fremont will be the 13th largest battery factory in the world! Lucid and Rivian are startups ramping up production, and the established makers are all slashing ICE investment in favor of EV investment. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:36:55 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's a funny story on logic vs herd mentality. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: I'll dispute electric is the future. Hydrogen powered is the real future. While every hydrogen proponent is giving up on it. It's a funny story on logic vs herd mentality. No hydrogen is fucking retarded. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:39:02 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If Gordon Murray says electric is just a stop gap measure to get to hydrogen power I'm going to believe him. He's forgotten more about cars than anyone at Tesla will ever know. Elon Musk has a rocket company... he has more experience with hydrogen than Gordon Murray's zero. Hydrogen is fucking retarded. It's an expensive, lossy, PITA battery. The Hydrogen costs more than gasoline. The Fuel Cell costs more than a battery. They suck on all fronts. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:41:23 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You will be surprised. The Austin Gigafactory is rumored to have an eventual capacity of 2m+ per year and 200-400GWh of battery production. That's 10% of North America's sales alone. Tesla is planning for 3TWh and 10m globally by 2030. 2m+ per year at GF Austin (Rumors are it will be largest car factory in the world) 2m per year at GF Berlin 1m+ per year at GF Shanghai and 600k per year at Fremont That's ~6m right there. The new "Roadrunner" cells massively cut down on CAPEX costs. The little 10GWh/year pilot line in Fremont will be the 13th largest battery factory in the world! Lucid and Rivian are startups ramping up production, and the established makers are all slashing ICE investment in favor of EV investment. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:43:57 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You will be surprised. The Austin Gigafactory is rumored to have an eventual capacity of 2m+ per year and 200-400GWh of battery production. That's 10% of North America's sales alone. Tesla is planning for 3TWh and 10m globally by 2030. 2m+ per year at GF Austin (Rumors are it will be largest car factory in the world) 2m per year at GF Berlin 1m+ per year at GF Shanghai and 600k per year at Fremont That's ~6m right there. The new "Roadrunner" cells massively cut down on CAPEX costs. The little 10GWh/year pilot line in Fremont will be the 13th largest battery factory in the world! Lucid and Rivian are startups ramping up production, and the established makers are all slashing ICE investment in favor of EV investment. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: 20% is too high for EV's in a decade. Maybe hybrids can get that high based purely on an increased reliance from the manufacturers on the tech (driven by government mandates), but outside of a fuel crisis, the option is now available with very little to any tradeoff and the numbers are still low. You will be surprised. The Austin Gigafactory is rumored to have an eventual capacity of 2m+ per year and 200-400GWh of battery production. That's 10% of North America's sales alone. Tesla is planning for 3TWh and 10m globally by 2030. 2m+ per year at GF Austin (Rumors are it will be largest car factory in the world) 2m per year at GF Berlin 1m+ per year at GF Shanghai and 600k per year at Fremont That's ~6m right there. The new "Roadrunner" cells massively cut down on CAPEX costs. The little 10GWh/year pilot line in Fremont will be the 13th largest battery factory in the world! Lucid and Rivian are startups ramping up production, and the established makers are all slashing ICE investment in favor of EV investment. Just so we keep everything in perspective. That is the equivalent to the 2019 US sales of GM, Ford, VW,....and Tesla, combined. ETA: That 10m globally is also equal to the top 2 world wide manufacturers combined (Toyota and VW). |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:47:30 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So the half that are built overseas will be shipped to the US? No, Berlin builds for European market, China for Chinese market. US factories will be exporters too. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:49:53 PM EDT
[#22]
Yes, electric cars can be insanely fast and faster then most gas powered ones right out of the gate. For those of us that are actually car people they just don't do it for us though. A large part of being a car guy, or racer is being able to work on, build, tune and tweak to your desire and taste. EV's take all that off the plate, you pretty much get what you buy off the lot and there's no enjoyment or satisfaction in it.
Who give's a shit if you show up to a race and tick off a 9 sec 1/4 time in a car that's stupid easy to launch and drive that you didn't do a damn thing to? I was running 10's in my daily driver 4cyl car that I had done all the work on and tuned myself and even if someone was faster which there always is I was damn proud of. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:51:27 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just so we keep everything in perspective. That is the equivalent to the 2019 US sales of GM, Ford, VW,....and Tesla, combined. ETA: That 10m globally is also equal to the top 2 world wide manufacturers combined (Toyota and VW). You do know that ~80% of the world auto market is outside the US right? There will probably be another ~1m/y+ factory on the east coast. probably one third to half the output of the US factories will be exported. Toyota and VW sell 10-11m each |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:52:08 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Been hearing that for 30 years... Free beer tomorrow, something something. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We are one breakthrough in battery tech away (either charging times or range) from vehicles like this being an enormous disruptive force. Free beer tomorrow, something something. The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:54:16 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, Berlin builds for European market, China for Chinese market. US factories will be exporters too. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: So the half that are built overseas will be shipped to the US? No, Berlin builds for European market, China for Chinese market. US factories will be exporters too. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:56:24 PM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 9/27/2020 7:57:20 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You do know that ~80% of the world auto market is outside the US right? There will probably be another ~1m/y+ factory on the east coast. probably one third to half the output of the US factories will be exported. Toyota and VW sell 10-11m each Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Just so we keep everything in perspective. That is the equivalent to the 2019 US sales of GM, Ford, VW,....and Tesla, combined. ETA: That 10m globally is also equal to the top 2 world wide manufacturers combined (Toyota and VW). You do know that ~80% of the world auto market is outside the US right? There will probably be another ~1m/y+ factory on the east coast. probably one third to half the output of the US factories will be exported. Toyota and VW sell 10-11m each |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:00:16 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: We are one breakthrough in battery tech away (either charging times or range) from vehicles like this being an enormous disruptive force. Free beer tomorrow, something something. The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:03:38 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Needs LS swap And carbs. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:03:57 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: We are one breakthrough in battery tech away (either charging times or range) from vehicles like this being an enormous disruptive force. Free beer tomorrow, something something. The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:04:22 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? ICE is going to be an increasingly bad deal compared to EVs. People will either buy EVs or nothing at all. ICE Depreciation rates will get worse and worse as obsolescence becomes apparent, and ICE manufacturers will enter a death spiral. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:04:46 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? Green New Deal |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:06:36 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, electric cars can be insanely fast and faster then most gas powered ones right out of the gate. For those of us that are actually car people they just don't do it for us though. A large part of being a car guy, or racer is being able to work on, build, tune and tweak to your desire and taste. EV's take all that off the plate, you pretty much get what you buy off the lot and there's no enjoyment or satisfaction in it. Who give's a shit if you show up to a race and tick off a 9 sec 1/4 time in a car that's stupid easy to launch and drive that you didn't do a damn thing to? I was running 10's in my daily driver 4cyl car that I had done all the work on and tuned myself and even if someone was faster which there always is I was damn proud of. lol |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:07:06 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's a lot of lithium There is plenty of lithium. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:09:23 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ICE is going to be an increasingly bad deal compared to EVs. People will either buy EVs or nothing at all. ICE Depreciation rates will get worse and worse as obsolescence becomes apparent, and ICE manufacturers will enter a death spiral. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? ICE is going to be an increasingly bad deal compared to EVs. People will either buy EVs or nothing at all. ICE Depreciation rates will get worse and worse as obsolescence becomes apparent, and ICE manufacturers will enter a death spiral. In 9 years? That's not happening. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:09:43 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Green New Deal Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? Green New Deal About the only logical option. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:12:53 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: We are one breakthrough in battery tech away (either charging times or range) from vehicles like this being an enormous disruptive force. Free beer tomorrow, something something. The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand? No, price and performance. EVs are a big compromise right now either on price or performance but not forever. And I'm not saying 50/50 by 2030, I'm saying 50/50 by the end of that decade. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:18:12 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In 9 years? That's not happening. They will probably hit 50% market share (In sales, not the total fleet) around 2027. Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse before EV production matches it, it will probably look something like this:  The total market share will be the classic S-curve.  It will probably take until ~2035 until they hit a majority of the fleet though. They could hit a majority of passenger-miles long before that if robotaxis become a thing. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:19:50 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: We are one breakthrough in battery tech away (either charging times or range) from vehicles like this being an enormous disruptive force. Free beer tomorrow, something something. The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. Like I said, we keep hearing that "it's coming" and "the difference this time", and have for decades. Whether it's EV's or solar power. Of course they have made strides, nobody is arguing that, but they are a long ways from being a disruptive force where on any given day Joe and Jane Public seriously debates buying an EV for their next purchase to be their primary vehicle. Specifically one that has a comparable range to an ICE vehicle at a reasonable price point (not a Model S) and plentiful charging options that aren't a hassle when driving longer distances. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:22:58 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You made my point in your second sentence. "...it is coming". Like I said, we keep hearing that "it's coming" and "the difference this time", and have for decades. Whether it's EV's or solar power. Of course they have made strides, nobody is arguing that, but they are a long ways from being a disruptive force where on any given day Joe and Jane Public seriously debates buying an EV for their next purchase to be their primary vehicle. Specifically one that has a comparable range to an ICE vehicle at a reasonable price point (not a Model S) and plentiful charging options that aren't a hassle when driving longer distances. This new battery architecture is what enables the takeover of EVs. Solar also needs batteries to be more than a supplement.  Sandy is Thrilled about Tesla's Battery Day & Begins Battery Mock-up Cheap batteries are the lynchpin that changes everything. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:25:02 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Cheap batteries are the lynchpin that changes everything. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:29:36 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We've been hearing that for 30 years... You obviously haven't been paying attention to how fast costs have been coming down.  Battery prices have decline 85% in the last decade. The cost of the Roadrunner pack is ~$50/KWh. We are actually getting into the "Shit has just become real" area of cost and energy density, where EVs sweep over the auto sector, and solar+batteries sweep over the utility sector purely on economics alone. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:37:54 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They will probably hit 50% market share (In sales, not the total fleet) around 2027. Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse before EV production matches it, it will probably look something like this: https://i.imgur.com/ORtd1pS.png The total market share will be the classic S-curve. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ross_Smith13/publication/325771095/figure/fig1/AS:637585751826434@1529023697819/Technology-Adoption-Rates-xvi-b.png It will probably take until ~2035 until they hit a majority of the fleet though. They could hit a majority of passenger-miles long before that if robotaxis become a thing. If EV's had 50% market share starting tomorrow (8.5 million a year), we would hit 50% of the US fleet in the middle of 2036. EV's are currently at 1.8% for US sales. To reach 50% of US sales in 6 model years would be absolutely amazing. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:38:41 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You obviously haven't been paying attention to how fast costs have been coming down. https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/li-ion-battery-price-640x480.png Battery prices have decline 85% in the last decade. The cost of the Roadrunner pack is ~$50/KWh. We are actually getting into the "Shit has just become real" area of cost and energy density, where EVs sweep over the auto sector, and solar+batteries sweep over the utility sector purely on economics alone. Sometimes graphs based on wishful projections developed to drive the hype don't match reality. Sorry. What's that movie scene about wishing in one hand and shitting in the other??? |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:39:47 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You made my point in your second sentence. "...it is coming". Like I said, we keep hearing that "it's coming" and "the difference this time", and have for decades. Whether it's EV's or solar power. Of course they have made strides, nobody is arguing that, but they are a long ways from being a disruptive force where on any given day Joe and Jane Public seriously debates buying an EV for their next purchase to be their primary vehicle. Specifically one that has a comparable range to an ICE vehicle at a reasonable price point (not a Model S) and plentiful charging options that aren't a hassle when driving longer distances. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: We are one breakthrough in battery tech away (either charging times or range) from vehicles like this being an enormous disruptive force. Free beer tomorrow, something something. The difference this time is that you can actually go buy 400 mile electric right now today. The 2012 Model S was a 265 mile EV and now they are 400+. Mass adoption will be longer than people think but it is coming. ICE is safe through 2030 but some time after that the transition will hit the 50/50 mark for EV vs ICE cars sold in any given year. Like I said, we keep hearing that "it's coming" and "the difference this time", and have for decades. Whether it's EV's or solar power. Of course they have made strides, nobody is arguing that, but they are a long ways from being a disruptive force where on any given day Joe and Jane Public seriously debates buying an EV for their next purchase to be their primary vehicle. Specifically one that has a comparable range to an ICE vehicle at a reasonable price point (not a Model S) and plentiful charging options that aren't a hassle when driving longer distances. And in my first paragraph I illustrated exactly how it was different this time compared to the false starts in the 90s and 00s. As to your part in bold, you have to admit that the Model 3 and Supercharger network is atleast knocking on the door of your criteria whereas a decade ago it was still a wild dream. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:41:35 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We've been hearing that for 30 years... Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Cheap batteries are the lynchpin that changes everything. People talked about flight and space travel for ages before it actually happened too. Just because we didn't get there with EVs in the last 30 years doesn't mean we a guaranteed to be waiting another 30. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:42:51 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People talked about flight and space travel for ages before it actually happened too. Just because we didn't get there with EVs in the last 30 years doesn't mean we a guaranteed to be waiting another 30. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Cheap batteries are the lynchpin that changes everything. People talked about flight and space travel for ages before it actually happened too. Just because we didn't get there with EVs in the last 30 years doesn't mean we a guaranteed to be waiting another 30. |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:46:01 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Never said it would. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Cheap batteries are the lynchpin that changes everything. People talked about flight and space travel for ages before it actually happened too. Just because we didn't get there with EVs in the last 30 years doesn't mean we a guaranteed to be waiting another 30. Then I guess I dont understand your implied meaning of "We've been hearing that for 30 years" Usually when people use that type of phrase its akin to saying "don't hold your breath". |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:47:35 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Then I guess I dont understand your implied meaning of "We've been hearing that for 30 years" Usually when people use that type of phrase its akin to saying "don't hold your breath". It's an ultra-low quality boomer cold take. "Computers will never fit in a room!" |
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Posted: 9/27/2020 8:52:09 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And in my first paragraph I illustrated exactly how it was different this time compared to the false starts in the 90s and 00s. As to your part in bold, you have to admit that the Model 3 and Supercharger network is atleast knocking on the door of your criteria whereas a decade ago it was still a wild dream. |
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