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Link Posted: 9/27/2020 7:52:38 PM EST
[#1]
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Quoted:
Yes, electric cars can be insanely fast and faster then most gas powered ones right out of the gate.  For those of us that are actually car people they just don't do it for us though.  A large part of being a car guy, or racer is being able to work on, build, tune and tweak to your desire and taste.  EV's take all that off the plate, you pretty much get what you buy off the lot and there's no enjoyment or satisfaction in it.  

Who give's a shit if you show up to a race and tick off a 9 sec 1/4 time in a car that's stupid easy to launch and drive that you didn't do a damn thing to?  I was running 10's in my daily driver 4cyl car that I had done all the work on and tuned myself and even if someone was faster which there always is I was damn proud of.

View Quote


sorry, but your future is hobby sports, much like the fans of steam engines today.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 7:56:36 PM EST
[#2]
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Quoted:
They can't even see the door yet when it comes to giving John and Jane Public a viable alternative to an ICE vehicle at a comparable price.  Long ways to go.


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And in my first paragraph I illustrated exactly how it was different this time compared to the false starts in the 90s and 00s.

As to your part in bold, you have to admit that the Model 3 and Supercharger network is atleast knocking on the door of your criteria whereas a decade ago it was still a wild dream.
They can't even see the door yet when it comes to giving John and Jane Public a viable alternative to an ICE vehicle at a comparable price.  Long ways to go.




I guess its a matter of opinion at that point but I see going from selling 25,000 S/X models per year to selling 350,000 3/Y models per year as that moment.

Link Posted: 9/27/2020 7:59:22 PM EST
[#3]
Solve all the problems of EV, make it cheaper..I still don't want it.

I'll take a pure diesel electric truck, or hybrid but I have no interest in a pure electric.  I want 5 min fill ups.  Plus I like ICE, they make me happy.  I make money all day long using electric horsepower, I want an ICE for my vehicles.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 7:59:49 PM EST
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Then I guess I dont understand your implied meaning of "We've been hearing that for 30 years"

Usually when people use that type of phrase its akin to saying "don't hold your breath".
View Quote
Weren't we supposed to have flying cars by now?  

My point is that there is always this carrot+stick when it comes to EV's. "They're the new hotness!" "Everyone on your block will own one, get yours now!"  "Better battery tech coming soon!"  "Just wait until next year!"  

Rinse/repeat year after year.  

2% market share.

Free beer tomorrow.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:05:04 PM EST
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Weren't we supposed to have flying cars by now?  

My point is that there is always this carrot+stick when it comes to EV's. "They're the new hotness!" "Everyone on your block will own one, get yours now!"  "Better battery tech coming soon!"  "Just wait until next year!"  

Rinse/repeat year after year.  

2% market share.

Free beer tomorrow.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


Then I guess I dont understand your implied meaning of "We've been hearing that for 30 years"

Usually when people use that type of phrase its akin to saying "don't hold your breath".
Weren't we supposed to have flying cars by now?  

My point is that there is always this carrot+stick when it comes to EV's. "They're the new hotness!" "Everyone on your block will own one, get yours now!"  "Better battery tech coming soon!"  "Just wait until next year!"  

Rinse/repeat year after year.  

2% market share.

Free beer tomorrow.


The projections of massive adoption over the next 6-10 years is a Tesla stockholder mantra, rather than a clean read on the market.

If adoption is actually stretched out at a more realistic rate, it hurts Tesla's first mover advantage.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:08:51 PM EST
[#6]
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In 9 years? That's not happening.
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.
Mercury to moon landing didn't take 9 years.
.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:11:22 PM EST
[#7]
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We've been hearing that for 30 years...
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Cheap batteries are the lynchpin that changes everything.
We've been hearing that for 30 years...
.
We've been seeing it happen for at least that long.
.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:13:47 PM EST
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
.
Mercury to moon landing didn't take 9 years.
.
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In 9 years? That's not happening.
.
Mercury to moon landing didn't take 9 years.
.


So...New Green Deal. That is the only comparison to the space program that makes sense.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:15:21 PM EST
[#9]
We need more 1500hp AWD gassers straight from the factory for $70k. EV's have no soul!
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:16:37 PM EST
[#10]
Nice looking car, have nothing against it. I would rather have a Porsche 911 Turbo S though, I like the way it looks a lot better than the Tesla.

Disclaimer: I know the Porsche is a lot more, but If I have $140k to spend on a car, means I would have $200k for a car.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:18:54 PM EST
[#11]
I think it's cool as fuck.  

Would like to see a 1 ton truck with similar HP and range.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:28:04 PM EST
[#12]
Im not on the electric bandwagon until you can charge a vehicle to 100% in the same amount of time you can gas up a car... BUT,, BUT.. in reality if I think about it, I never really go ANYWHERE that I would need to charge an electric car... I go to the gym 8.5 miles away, and the store, 8.5 or 14 miles away.. so 95% of the time im SURE an electric car would be fine for me, BUT I just dont like the Idea so far.... oh and going through the aggravation of finding a charging station wouldnt be fun.

oh and im skeptical of an 8 sec car, I dont think they will be able to do it, thats beyond insane fast, that and ill never be able to afford $150k on a car.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:34:24 PM EST
[#13]
I get it, the future is probably electric. Still not going to buy one until:

A. They figure out style. These cars still look like a libido-killing crossover. Porsche exudes sex. Tesla exudes....grocery shopping maybe? A car needs to make you feel something just by looking at it. They've got the performance numbers, now they need to tackle design.  

B. They give us an instrument cluster or HUD. I've ridden in Teslas, not a fan of the giant screen. I want my cockpit info front and center please.  
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:37:45 PM EST
[#14]
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Quoted:


sorry, but your future is hobby sports, much like the fans of steam engines today.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Yes, electric cars can be insanely fast and faster then most gas powered ones right out of the gate.  For those of us that are actually car people they just don't do it for us though.  A large part of being a car guy, or racer is being able to work on, build, tune and tweak to your desire and taste.  EV's take all that off the plate, you pretty much get what you buy off the lot and there's no enjoyment or satisfaction in it.  

Who give's a shit if you show up to a race and tick off a 9 sec 1/4 time in a car that's stupid easy to launch and drive that you didn't do a damn thing to?  I was running 10's in my daily driver 4cyl car that I had done all the work on and tuned myself and even if someone was faster which there always is I was damn proud of.



sorry, but your future is hobby sports, much like the fans of steam engines today.
Also, I'm 100% ok with this. Half of the fun of racing cars is working on them and then getting to experience the fruits of your labor, knowing you accomplished something with your own hands and intelligence.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:37:45 PM EST
[#15]
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In 9 years? That's not happening.

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What is going to drive that absolutely massive change over the next 9 years? Demand?


ICE is going to be an increasingly bad deal compared to EVs. People will either buy EVs or nothing at all.

ICE Depreciation rates will get worse and worse as obsolescence becomes apparent, and ICE manufacturers will enter a death spiral.


In 9 years? That's not happening.



Look at transportation in 1910 and then in 1920. Even bigger transformation.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:43:28 PM EST
[#16]
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Quoted:


If EV's had 50% market share starting tomorrow (8.5 million a year), we would hit 50% of the US fleet in the middle of 2036.

EV's are currently at 1.8% for US sales. To reach 50% of US sales in 6 model years would be absolutely amazing.
View Quote


like this:



Once they get to 50% they aren't going to stop there.

I don't think many of you realize how shit a $30k ICE car is going to look compared to a $30k EV circa 2027. Slower, much higher maintenance costs, much higher fuel costs, higher depreciation, lower safety...

Now, if robotaxis become a thing, EVs can capture an even larger share of passenger miles since one robotaxi could replace several personal vehicles.

A lot of auto OEMs will go bankrupt in the mid/late 2020s IMHO.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 8:51:58 PM EST
[#17]
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Quoted:
I think it's cool as fuck.  

Would like to see a 1 ton truck with similar HP and range.
View Quote
I tried to convince my boss to add a Rivian electric truck to our fleet but it's a tough sell when you can buy a gas for 1/3 the price.  
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:03:05 PM EST
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


like this:

https://i.imgur.com/yO3piTD.png

Once they get to 50% they aren't going to stop there.

I don't think many of you realize how shit a $30k ICE car is going to look compared to a $30k EV circa 2027. Slower, much higher maintenance costs, much higher fuel costs, higher depreciation, lower safety...

Now, if robotaxis become a thing, EVs can capture an even larger share of passenger miles since one robotaxi could replace several personal vehicles.

A lot of auto OEMs will go bankrupt in the mid/late 2020s IMHO.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


If EV's had 50% market share starting tomorrow (8.5 million a year), we would hit 50% of the US fleet in the middle of 2036.

EV's are currently at 1.8% for US sales. To reach 50% of US sales in 6 model years would be absolutely amazing.


like this:

https://i.imgur.com/yO3piTD.png

Once they get to 50% they aren't going to stop there.

I don't think many of you realize how shit a $30k ICE car is going to look compared to a $30k EV circa 2027. Slower, much higher maintenance costs, much higher fuel costs, higher depreciation, lower safety...

Now, if robotaxis become a thing, EVs can capture an even larger share of passenger miles since one robotaxi could replace several personal vehicles.

A lot of auto OEMs will go bankrupt in the mid/late 2020s IMHO.


These threads always remind me of crypto threads.

Help me understand the chart. 50% is 8.5 million vehicles.






Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:03:07 PM EST
[#19]
I don't get the hind-bound hatred of an American car company kicking ass in a new segment.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:08:17 PM EST
[#20]
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Quoted:
I don't get the hind-bound hatred of an American car company kicking ass in a new segment.
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America makes the best EVs and is a net-exporter of them. Tesla is basically the only US auto manufacturer that makes cars the rest of the world wants to buy (well, except China's weird-ass obsession with Buicks...)

With Tesla, Lucid and Rivian, America could become like Germany and Japan combined in the EV space.

They'd rather whine about the trade deficit while hoping for foreign competitors to destroy American companies though.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:09:50 PM EST
[#21]
Nice.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:13:22 PM EST
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


These threads always remind me of crypto threads.

Help me understand the chart. 50% is 8.5 million vehicles.






View Quote


The chart is about as believable as crypto threads.

Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:15:07 PM EST
[#23]
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Quoted:


America makes the best EVs and is a net-exporter of them. Tesla is basically the only US auto manufacturer that makes cars the rest of the world wants to buy (well, except China's weird-ass obsession with Buicks...)

With Tesla, Lucid and Rivian, America could become like Germany and Japan combined in the EV space.

They'd rather whine about the trade deficit while hoping for foreign competitors to destroy American companies though.
View Quote



Other US automakers will catch up, and because their cars will actually have something resembling quality control, as well as having a service network that isn't trash... may very well outsell Tesla.

I'm not anti-Tesla at all.  I think they're cool gadgets, I've spent some time behind the wheel of a optioned out Model 3, and I'd buy one if I had the money.   But, they have serious issues with fit/finish and paintwork as well as some problems with the interior.  I've worked on quite a few of them and they all have issues in those departments.  

Tesla needs to work on refining their cars to the level of major auto manufacturers, or their share will be eaten up.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:18:13 PM EST
[#24]
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You're also the guy who likes Nickelback and thinks they're better than Tool...
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Indeed.

And the whole Tesla brand/image/lifestyle is soy as fuck.


You're also the guy who likes Nickelback and thinks they're better than Tool...


Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:18:37 PM EST
[#25]
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Quoted:



Other US automakers will catch up, and because their cars will actually have something resembling quality control, as well as having a service network that isn't trash... may very well outsell Tesla.
View Quote



Ford, GM and Chrysler have done nothing but cede market share and cash bailout checks for a quarter of a century, while moving all their factories to Mexico.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:19:59 PM EST
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Weren't we supposed to have flying cars by now?  

My point is that there is always this carrot+stick when it comes to EV's. "They're the new hotness!" "Everyone on your block will own one, get yours now!"  "Better battery tech coming soon!"  "Just wait until next year!"  

Rinse/repeat year after year.  

2% market share.

Free beer tomorrow.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


Then I guess I dont understand your implied meaning of "We've been hearing that for 30 years"

Usually when people use that type of phrase its akin to saying "don't hold your breath".
Weren't we supposed to have flying cars by now?  

My point is that there is always this carrot+stick when it comes to EV's. "They're the new hotness!" "Everyone on your block will own one, get yours now!"  "Better battery tech coming soon!"  "Just wait until next year!"  

Rinse/repeat year after year.  

2% market share.

Free beer tomorrow.


Indeed. I'll get an EV when they're actually a realistic standard, whenever that may be. And whatever it is, it won't be a fucking Tesla.

In the meantime they're early-adopter bugman shit.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:20:34 PM EST
[#27]
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Quoted:



Ford, GM and Chrysler have done nothing but cede market share and cash bailout checks for a quarter of a century, while moving all their factories to Mexico.
View Quote



You say that as if Tesla is financially stable.  ROFL

Doesn't invalidate my point about their major QC issues.
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:22:50 PM EST
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


They will probably hit 50% market share (In sales, not the total fleet) around 2027.

Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse before EV production matches it, it will probably look something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/ORtd1pS.png

The total market share will be the classic S-curve.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ross_Smith13/publication/325771095/figure/fig1/AS:637585751826434@1529023697819/Technology-Adoption-Rates-xvi-b.png



It will probably take until ~2035 until they hit a majority of the fleet though.

They could hit a majority of passenger-miles long before that if robotaxis become a thing.

View Quote

15 years until majority the fleet?
https://www.automotive-fleet.com/334986/average-age-of-u-s-vehicles-continues-to-rise
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:23:05 PM EST
[#29]
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You're also the guy who likes Nickelback and thinks they're better than Tool...
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Quoted:


Indeed.

And the whole Tesla brand/image/lifestyle is soy as fuck.


You're also the guy who likes Nickelback and thinks they're better than Tool...


ouchlol
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:25:19 PM EST
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History


I look at that photograph, and every time I do it makes me laugh
Link Posted: 9/27/2020 9:28:58 PM EST
[#31]
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I look at that photograph, and every time I do it makes me laugh
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I look at that photograph, and every time I do it makes me laugh


Link Posted: 9/28/2020 9:31:25 AM EST
[#32]
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How does a sedan seat up to 7?
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2 front row
3 second row
2 Back row.

There are three rows of seats. The back has seats that fold up from the trunk just like a station wagon.  People have had the cops called Because they put kids in the trunk.
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 9:56:30 AM EST
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

15 years until majority the fleet?
https://www.automotive-fleet.com/334986/average-age-of-u-s-vehicles-continues-to-rise
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


They will probably hit 50% market share (In sales, not the total fleet) around 2027.

Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse before EV production matches it, it will probably look something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/ORtd1pS.png

The total market share will be the classic S-curve.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ross_Smith13/publication/325771095/figure/fig1/AS:637585751826434@1529023697819/Technology-Adoption-Rates-xvi-b.png



It will probably take until ~2035 until they hit a majority of the fleet though.

They could hit a majority of passenger-miles long before that if robotaxis become a thing.


15 years until majority the fleet?
https://www.automotive-fleet.com/334986/average-age-of-u-s-vehicles-continues-to-rise



15 years ago the Iphone didn't even exist. The jump in electric car technology is going to be huge
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 9:57:13 AM EST
[#34]
Electric =
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:00:02 AM EST
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Im not on the electric bandwagon until you can charge a vehicle to 100% in the same amount of time you can gas up a car... BUT,, BUT.. in reality if I think about it, I never really go ANYWHERE that I would need to charge an electric car... I go to the gym 8.5 miles away, and the store, 8.5 or 14 miles away.. so 95% of the time im SURE an electric car would be fine for me, BUT I just dont like the Idea so far.... oh and going through the aggravation of finding a charging station wouldnt be fun.

oh and im skeptical of an 8 sec car, I dont think they will be able to do it, thats beyond insane fast, that and ill never be able to afford $150k on a car.
View Quote


If you are mainly driving locally, why would you have to find a charging station?

I wouldn't be skeptical of 8 seconds at all. AWD and 1100hp is a quick recipe to the 8's. Nothing really questionable about it
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:17:30 AM EST
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


like this:

https://i.imgur.com/yO3piTD.png

Once they get to 50% they aren't going to stop there.

I don't think many of you realize how shit a $30k ICE car is going to look compared to a $30k EV circa 2027. Slower, much higher maintenance costs, much higher fuel costs, higher depreciation, lower safety...

Now, if robotaxis become a thing, EVs can capture an even larger share of passenger miles since one robotaxi could replace several personal vehicles.

A lot of auto OEMs will go bankrupt in the mid/late 2020s IMHO.
View Quote

Why, that looks like an "S" Curve. Where have I seen that before?
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:31:36 AM EST
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



15 years ago the Iphone didn't even exist. The jump in electric car technology is going to be huge
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:


They will probably hit 50% market share (In sales, not the total fleet) around 2027.

Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse before EV production matches it, it will probably look something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/ORtd1pS.png

The total market share will be the classic S-curve.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ross_Smith13/publication/325771095/figure/fig1/AS:637585751826434@1529023697819/Technology-Adoption-Rates-xvi-b.png



It will probably take until ~2035 until they hit a majority of the fleet though.

They could hit a majority of passenger-miles long before that if robotaxis become a thing.


15 years until majority the fleet?
https://www.automotive-fleet.com/334986/average-age-of-u-s-vehicles-continues-to-rise



15 years ago the Iphone didn't even exist. The jump in electric car technology is going to be huge



Whoosh!
Even if the tech explodes, half of the automotive fleet is not going to be replaced in fifteen years.  Not with a fleet that currently averages almost 12 years old.  

FWIW - What tech in the Tesla is an innovation?  Meaning it didn't exist previously.
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:36:51 AM EST
[#38]
This is the car my kid was telling me this weekend she wants.

Now I see why she wants it.  

She gets her love of fast cars from her daddy.  
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:46:13 AM EST
[#39]
I will probably get a Model S in the next few years, been looking at used and they aren't too bad.

No way I can afford new on an enlisted salary.
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:48:10 AM EST
[#40]
Beautiful car but shit quality
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:48:21 AM EST
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Whoosh!
Even if the tech explodes, half of the automotive fleet is not going to be replaced in fifteen years.  Not with a fleet that currently averages almost 12 years old.  

FWIW - What tech in the Tesla is an innovation?  Meaning it didn't exist previously.
View Quote


The "Project Roadrunner" battery.

Tabless cell design
Pack integrated into frame
+ a bunch of small improvements adds up to a ~54% increase in energy density, ~85% increase in power density, and 56% decrease in cost.
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:50:32 AM EST
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


If you are mainly driving locally, why would you have to find a charging station?

I wouldn't be skeptical of 8 seconds at all. AWD and 1100hp is a quick recipe to the 8's. Nothing really questionable about it
View Quote


The Roadster will have a 200KWh battery and ~1500hp.

SpaceX edition will have compressed gas RCS thrusters.
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:54:43 AM EST
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
This is the car my kid was telling me this weekend she wants.

Now I see why she wants it.  

She gets her love of fast cars from her daddy.  
View Quote


Electrics are running under 8 seconds at 200mph on the strip and barely over 6 minutes on the Nurburgring... I'm looking forward to seeing how outrageous they'll be

I like gas engines but electric certainly isn't going to stop me from being a car enthusiast.
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 10:59:02 AM EST
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


like this:

https://i.imgur.com/yO3piTD.png

Once they get to 50% they aren't going to stop there.

I don't think many of you realize how shit a $30k ICE car is going to look compared to a $30k EV circa 2027. Slower, much higher maintenance costs, much higher fuel costs, higher depreciation, lower safety...

Now, if robotaxis become a thing, EVs can capture an even larger share of passenger miles since one robotaxi could replace several personal vehicles.

A lot of auto OEMs will go bankrupt in the mid/late 2020s IMHO.
View Quote


Luckily I don't have to worry about Hyundai group going bankrupt that way, unlike most other Auto makes we've invested heavily in electric stuff and pretty soon we're going to have seven electric vehicles in our lineup on the Kia side.

Somehow they still need to overcome the weather limitations though that Evs have in the winter and the annoyingly long charging times.

They still have a ways to go but they are definitely here to stay
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 11:02:06 AM EST
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Whoosh!
Even if the tech explodes, half of the automotive fleet is not going to be replaced in fifteen years.  Not with a fleet that currently averages almost 12 years old.  

FWIW - What tech in the Tesla is an innovation?  Meaning it didn't exist previously.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:


They will probably hit 50% market share (In sales, not the total fleet) around 2027.

Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse before EV production matches it, it will probably look something like this:

https://i.imgur.com/ORtd1pS.png

The total market share will be the classic S-curve.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ross_Smith13/publication/325771095/figure/fig1/AS:637585751826434@1529023697819/Technology-Adoption-Rates-xvi-b.png



It will probably take until ~2035 until they hit a majority of the fleet though.

They could hit a majority of passenger-miles long before that if robotaxis become a thing.


15 years until majority the fleet?
https://www.automotive-fleet.com/334986/average-age-of-u-s-vehicles-continues-to-rise



15 years ago the Iphone didn't even exist. The jump in electric car technology is going to be huge



Whoosh!
Even if the tech explodes, half of the automotive fleet is not going to be replaced in fifteen years.  Not with a fleet that currently averages almost 12 years old.  

FWIW - What tech in the Tesla is an innovation?  Meaning it didn't exist previously.
When's the last time you saw a Rolodex. Or a pay phone?

Link Posted: 9/28/2020 11:02:16 AM EST
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


like this:

https://i.imgur.com/yO3piTD.png

Once they get to 50% they aren't going to stop there.

I don't think many of you realize how shit a $30k ICE car is going to look compared to a $30k EV circa 2027. Slower, much higher maintenance costs, much higher fuel costs, higher depreciation, lower safety...

Now, if robotaxis become a thing, EVs can capture an even larger share of passenger miles since one robotaxi could replace several personal vehicles.

A lot of auto OEMs will go bankrupt in the mid/late 2020s IMHO.
View Quote
Nope. The big autos will still be the big autos.  VW shits a tesla corp after coffee every morning.  Tesla will get bypassed or bought.  The sheer amount of resources the big autos can invest will swamp tesla's head start.

When the technology is able to produce what the consumer wants scale will win.  600 mile range heavy towing pickups with 20 minute fast charging will do it.  Big luxurious SUVs. Sexy sports cars. Something that runs well below 0f....and makes lots of heat.

Every tesla looks like a dildo with Down's syndrome...the model 3 is extra Downey.   Perfect for city dwellers for whom driving is a necessary evil.

I used to be one of those.
Fuck that whole way of life.
Tesla is a tribute to a cube farm,  soul crushing cookie cutter existence devoid of simple joys.  Makes driving just another routine like brushing your teeth. Its so boring they have to have the car keep you on the road.

I have no desire to ever own a pure electric. I'm not against technological advances but going pure electric just for the cool factor requires them to be cool, so..they aren't ready yet.
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 11:04:52 AM EST
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


ICE is going to be an increasingly bad deal compared to EVs. People will either buy EVs or nothing at all.

ICE Depreciation rates will get worse and worse as obsolescence becomes apparent, and ICE manufacturers will enter a death spiral.
View Quote


I don't know how you think the internal combustion engine is going to go extinct.

It's still going to be around for another century.

It can still just do too many things that an electric can't, especially in remote job sites an construction industry, diesel boats are going to be a thing forever.

Honestly even though it's a little bit more expensive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are better than dedicated i c e or ev
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 11:05:30 AM EST
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I get it, the future is probably electric. Still not going to buy one until:

A. They figure out style. These cars still look like a libido-killing crossover. Porsche exudes sex. Tesla exudes....grocery shopping maybe? A car needs to make you feel something just by looking at it. They've got the performance numbers, now they need to tackle design.  

B. They give us an instrument cluster or HUD. I've ridden in Teslas, not a fan of the giant screen. I want my cockpit info front and center please.  
View Quote


What info would you want displayed on an electric car gauge cluster?
Link Posted: 9/28/2020 11:08:42 AM EST
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Whoosh!
Even if the tech explodes, half of the automotive fleet is not going to be replaced in fifteen years.  Not with a fleet that currently averages almost 12 years old.  

FWIW - What tech in the Tesla is an innovation?  Meaning it didn't exist previously.
View Quote





Hey big brain, if the average fleet age is 12 years, in 15 years the majority of the fleet will have been replaced .

In every one of those years, electric market share will to continue to go up and compound on the previous year while ICE sales continue to stall. Pretty easy to see how quickly that gap closes

The point about iphones not even existing 15 years ago is now that we have the big auto manufacturers focusing on electric, the technology leaps are going to be big and fast as is consumer adoption. It is extremely short sighted to think that your flip phone is going to keep ruling the market when it won't even exist in just a couple years. What benefit do auto manufacturers have in making ICE cars?





Link Posted: 9/28/2020 11:09:20 AM EST
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Nope. The big autos will still be the big autos.  VW shits a tesla corp after coffee every morning.  Tesla will get bypassed or bought.  The sheer amount of resources the big autos can invest will swamp tesla's head start.

When the technology is able to produce what the consumer wants scale will win.  600 mile range heavy towing pickups with 20 minute fast charging will do it.  Big luxurious SUVs. Sexy sports cars. Something that runs well below 0f....and makes lots of heat.

Every tesla looks like a dildo with Down's syndrome...the model 3 is extra Downey.   Perfect for city dwellers for whom driving is a necessary evil.

I used to be one of those.
Fuck that whole way of life.
Tesla is a tribute to a cube farm,  soul crushing cookie cutter existence devoid of simple joys.  Makes driving just another routine like brushing your teeth. Its so boring they have to have the car keep you on the road.

I have no desire to ever own a pure electric. I'm not against technological advances but going pure electric just for the cool factor requires them to be cool, so..they aren't ready yet.
View Quote


This is nonsense.

Clearly you have never read "The Innovator's Dilemma"

There is a reason the list of the world's largest phone manufacturers changed completely when the tech went from landlines to cell phones.

Then guess what happened when phones went from Cell Phones to Smartphones? The list of the big manufacturers changes completely yet again. People were saying the same retarded shit you are right now when Apple cam out with the iPhone. "LOL, Nokia will just use it's billions to crush tiny little Apple!"

Tech changes almost always upend the apple cart.

If anything, most of big auto has actually gotten further behind Tesla over the last few years.

The knowledge base overlap between EVs and ICE vehicles is much less than you would think.
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