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Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:30:42 PM EST
[#1]
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Quoted:
This is pretty fascinating.  I missed being affected by it (was in germany at the time).

Any guesses on what the next bubble will be?
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Index fund crash.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:37:05 PM EST
[#2]
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Quoted:
Index fund crash.
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Quoted:
This is pretty fascinating.  I missed being affected by it (was in germany at the time).

Any guesses on what the next bubble will be?
Index fund crash.
As in the whole market?
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:43:14 PM EST
[#3]
A bond is a loan. A mortgage based bond is just that, a stack of mortgages used as collateral for the bond.

If the mortgage holders fail to pay, the bond holder can turn to the bond seller (borrower) for repayment.

When the mortgage market collapsed, like in 2008-2010, those holders turned to the banks for payment of the principle. Since the bonds were bought at a premium, the banks had to pay back at the premium price.

Example, I pay you $1.5Million for a package of mortgages in a bond. The mortgages go bad, say 50% of them. The bank is now holding $750k in bad loans, $700k in good loans but still owes the bond holder $1.5Million. The bank has not only lost the $700k but also $1.5Million for a total of $2.1 million. The bank still holds $750k in loans but they won't be paid in forever and nobody will buy them.  Now convert the millions to billions.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:45:06 PM EST
[#4]
LOL, it's been pointed out several times in this thread that this wasn't Obama's doing yet people continue to bark about it. Trained seals display more critical thinking skills than some folks it seems.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:47:38 PM EST
[#5]
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Quoted:
The govt had very little to do with it.  Mortgage brokers were chasing fees, the banks were chasing fees, the people buying the CDO's were chasing yield.  Nonconforming and Subprime loans offered higher yields and fees.  It was a shit show. The bankers got greedy and it blew up in their face.  They did not learn a damn thing because the govt. bailed their ass out.
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Quoted:
Wasn't the whole thing with shaky loans because the government started pressuring lenders to lend to people with shoddy credit with some promise of being recouped?
The govt had very little to do with it.  Mortgage brokers were chasing fees, the banks were chasing fees, the people buying the CDO's were chasing yield.  Nonconforming and Subprime loans offered higher yields and fees.  It was a shit show. The bankers got greedy and it blew up in their face.  They did not learn a damn thing because the govt. bailed their ass out.
Gov had everything to do with it, they were the ones who initially pushed the practices of loaning to people who couldn't pay.  Banks saw an opportunity to make money and ran with it.  They knew it wasn't gonna last.  Mortgages got packaged up and sold off and everyone was playing musical chairs and hoping they weren't holding the bag when the bottom fell out.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:48:57 PM EST
[#6]
-Bankers and politicians made a whole lot of stupid loans, to stupid people, for stupid reasons.

-Loans defaulted for obvious reasons if you ever read a financial text book.

-Instead of going to jail for fraud, corruption and the like. Banks got a bail out. And one of the greatest financial heists in history took place and no one cared. Or even understood what was happening.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:49:40 PM EST
[#7]
People were given interest only loans with principle balloon payments they couldn’t possibly pay back.

It was all a shell game playing with money that didn’t actually exist. The buyers were told that because the housing market was growing they had “instant equity” and could sell the home for a profit in a few years before the balloon note came due. We are talking payments in the hundreds of thousands of dollars due  once the calendar required.

Those risky loans were repackaged and sold as prime investments and the can just kept being kicked down the road, a high stakes game of hot potato.

Eventually, someone caught the potato and the game ended.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:49:52 PM EST
[#8]
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Quoted:

A fifth grader can debunk your theory.
The housing market crashed in December of 2008.
Obama was inaugurated on January 20th 2009.
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Perhaps he was referring to Obama as Senator Obama.  Regardless, people like Obama ushered in this shit show and should have to own the results.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:52:19 PM EST
[#9]
I remember “Interest only” loans.    Who could have thought that was a good idea.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:53:03 PM EST
[#10]
Question for knowledge people because I don’t know

Did Bush handle the crash the right way with the bailout!
Should he have let it crash and correct itself?
Possibly something in between?
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 6:58:41 PM EST
[#11]
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Quoted:
Mortgage backed bonds are simply instruments that pay out cashflows that come from the underlying mortgages. There are several different types.

A CDO is a broader category. A MBS can be thought of as a type of CDO. A CDO can exist without actually being backed by the underlying asset, instead using derivative products bundled together. They end up essentially being a side bet on the underlying asset, in a sense. So, the money simply comes from a counter party that is willing to bet against you.

These positions may not be "naked" in the sense that the people using the CDOs or derivative products may have certain exposures (like they've sold insurance against a product, and are trying to offset some of the risk associated with that) that they are trying to hedge. Or, they could simply be speculating.

It gets complicated in a hurry.

The market meltdown can boil down to this. The government had been subsidizing the housing market for a long, long time through federal lending programs. This helped people buy houses even though they couldn't normally have gotten loans via normal processes at banks. These mortgages had insurance on them, the government promised to pay the banks if the borrower's defaulted. These mortgages were fairly uniform debts, they shared a lot of common features, and they were all backed by insurance (VA/FHA). GNMA and the other agencies would buy these mortgages from the issuing banks. This put cash back in the banks, so they could make more loans. Then, GNMA and the others actually collected on the mortgages. To fund this process, GNMA and the others issued bonds, which were backed by the payments coming from the mortgages, and these mortgages were all insured by the government, so it was pretty safe. These bonds were the first real mortgage backed securities. The issuing banks thus made their money issuing new loans and flipping them over to GNMA. And it's all funded by investors who are buying the MBS's because they want real estate exposure with a lot of safety.

Fast forward 40 years. Banks don't have a lot of incentive to really verify all the info on a loan, because they don't really sit on it and bear the default risk. The borrower's don't have any incentive not to lie on the loan application, because they want to buy as much house as possible. Lots of other MBS's and credit default swaps, and CDOs are now floating around, as everyone figured out how to make money in every direction as often as they could. The credit risk ratings on MBSs are different than bonds, even though they kind of look the same, so a lot of people were fooled into thinking they were safer than they actually were. Sometimes companies just lied about the risk level.

All of the major banks have multiple insurance contracts, CDS's, and interlocking arrangements built up upon this system. This basically isn't really a problem, as long as everyone has enough cash to pay out and keep the financial faucets flowing.

Until... people who've borrowed too much on their mortgages start having trouble paying for them. Some of them got floating rate loans, and the rates go up. Their payments go up. They can't pay them. They start to default.

A lot of the MBS's that have been issued aren't backed by government insured mortgages. Or even if they are, the thing is, the MBS payments aren't insured. Or you were in the wrong tranche, so the payments you're supposed to get on your MBS get axed. Maybe it defaults.

No problem, you think, we bought an insurance product (CDS) on the MBS, so when it defaults, our counter party has to pay out. And that's important because you are on the other side of some other insurance like products, and you need to start paying your counterparties on those contracts. As long as the payments all happen, like they are promised to, it works.

But, as it turns out, your insurer is also having cash flow problems, because a lot of their contracts are starting to pay out. They are having trouble meeting their obligations, due to everyone trying to collect at the same time. So they can't pay you, even though they definitely owe you payments. And now you can't pay out on your obligations. So you're gonna screw over the people you owe money.

Welcome to contagion. Liquidity problems start to propagate across the market. People can't pay because people aren't paying them, and this causes a real shit show of defaults.

That's why it's called a "credit crisis". When liquidity dried up, it didn't matter what you were supposed to have on paper. Your insurance products were crap, not because you were stupid, but because the person on the other side just couldn't live up to their end of the bargain, because someone on the other side of them didn't hold up their end, and round and round it went.
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Please tell me if I have this right so far:

You have mortgage backed bonds.  These are bonds that are full of mortgages.  If the homeowner's pay their mortgage, the holder of the bond makes money.  These are *relatively* safe (at least in terms of collapsing the whole system), even when people do stupid shit like buy 4000 square foot houses when they have half-assed jobs.

Then there are "CDOs", which are basically the same thing, except they have some riskier components, like auto loans, credit cards, etc.

Then there are "synthetic CDOs", or "CDO squared's".

What are these?

In order to multiply the original mortgage bond investment 20-fold, don't you need people betting against the mortgage holders at some point?  And, if they are right, where does the money come from?

I need this explained like I'm 5 years old.

Thanks.
Mortgage backed bonds are simply instruments that pay out cashflows that come from the underlying mortgages. There are several different types.

A CDO is a broader category. A MBS can be thought of as a type of CDO. A CDO can exist without actually being backed by the underlying asset, instead using derivative products bundled together. They end up essentially being a side bet on the underlying asset, in a sense. So, the money simply comes from a counter party that is willing to bet against you.

These positions may not be "naked" in the sense that the people using the CDOs or derivative products may have certain exposures (like they've sold insurance against a product, and are trying to offset some of the risk associated with that) that they are trying to hedge. Or, they could simply be speculating.

It gets complicated in a hurry.

The market meltdown can boil down to this. The government had been subsidizing the housing market for a long, long time through federal lending programs. This helped people buy houses even though they couldn't normally have gotten loans via normal processes at banks. These mortgages had insurance on them, the government promised to pay the banks if the borrower's defaulted. These mortgages were fairly uniform debts, they shared a lot of common features, and they were all backed by insurance (VA/FHA). GNMA and the other agencies would buy these mortgages from the issuing banks. This put cash back in the banks, so they could make more loans. Then, GNMA and the others actually collected on the mortgages. To fund this process, GNMA and the others issued bonds, which were backed by the payments coming from the mortgages, and these mortgages were all insured by the government, so it was pretty safe. These bonds were the first real mortgage backed securities. The issuing banks thus made their money issuing new loans and flipping them over to GNMA. And it's all funded by investors who are buying the MBS's because they want real estate exposure with a lot of safety.

Fast forward 40 years. Banks don't have a lot of incentive to really verify all the info on a loan, because they don't really sit on it and bear the default risk. The borrower's don't have any incentive not to lie on the loan application, because they want to buy as much house as possible. Lots of other MBS's and credit default swaps, and CDOs are now floating around, as everyone figured out how to make money in every direction as often as they could. The credit risk ratings on MBSs are different than bonds, even though they kind of look the same, so a lot of people were fooled into thinking they were safer than they actually were. Sometimes companies just lied about the risk level.

All of the major banks have multiple insurance contracts, CDS's, and interlocking arrangements built up upon this system. This basically isn't really a problem, as long as everyone has enough cash to pay out and keep the financial faucets flowing.

Until... people who've borrowed too much on their mortgages start having trouble paying for them. Some of them got floating rate loans, and the rates go up. Their payments go up. They can't pay them. They start to default.

A lot of the MBS's that have been issued aren't backed by government insured mortgages. Or even if they are, the thing is, the MBS payments aren't insured. Or you were in the wrong tranche, so the payments you're supposed to get on your MBS get axed. Maybe it defaults.

No problem, you think, we bought an insurance product (CDS) on the MBS, so when it defaults, our counter party has to pay out. And that's important because you are on the other side of some other insurance like products, and you need to start paying your counterparties on those contracts. As long as the payments all happen, like they are promised to, it works.

But, as it turns out, your insurer is also having cash flow problems, because a lot of their contracts are starting to pay out. They are having trouble meeting their obligations, due to everyone trying to collect at the same time. So they can't pay you, even though they definitely owe you payments. And now you can't pay out on your obligations. So you're gonna screw over the people you owe money.

Welcome to contagion. Liquidity problems start to propagate across the market. People can't pay because people aren't paying them, and this causes a real shit show of defaults.

That's why it's called a "credit crisis". When liquidity dried up, it didn't matter what you were supposed to have on paper. Your insurance products were crap, not because you were stupid, but because the person on the other side just couldn't live up to their end of the bargain, because someone on the other side of them didn't hold up their end, and round and round it went.
Excellent explanation though you left out one detail. Due to the ease of borrowing, housing prices started to rise.  The subprime buyers were only the catalyst. Once the prices started going up, everyone got in on the action. As perceived values increased, more people were motivated to sell and “trade up”.  Additional people began to buy speculatively on investment properties by leveraging their current assets. Home equity loans were taken to buy “investment” vacation homes. More home equity loans were taken for home improvements to “increase the value” of the properties. Prices continued to go up and up. People were buying and selling across all income brackets until it reached a big ass bubble. Even joe middle class was getting greedy on the ride up at this point. Values peaked sales slowed down values dropped and everybody was so over leveraged that their assets were no longer valued anywhere near their debts.  That’s when the cracks started to show in the damn. A free people saw the cracks, but when it broke, boom, it was quick ride to the bottom.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:00:33 PM EST
[#12]
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Quoted:
A fifth grader can debunk your theory.
The housing market crashed in December of 2008.
Obama was inaugurated on January 20th 2009.
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Yep, Obama and cohorts made banks issue loans to people with no credit who didn’t have a chance in hell of fulfilling their loans, saying it was racist to deny people based on their ability to pay the loan back.  On top of that, you had banks issue loans with no money down, which had variable rates, low at the onset, and would spike higher as interest rates moved, ensuring they would not be able to pay the newer higher rates and would likewise default.

On a basic level, these loans were packaged together and sold as an investment.  Different packages had different amounts of risk, based on the credit ratings of the borrowers.

They kept selling and leveraging these as assets, when they knew they were worthless.

Eventually, one company saw that they were sitting in a house of cards, and their “assets” were about to implode since they were worthless.  They dumped, and dumped hard, causing a stampede for the doors to get out as everyone else saw their balance sheet wasnt worth shit and the value of the packages tanked.  More sellers than buyers...
A fifth grader can debunk your theory.
The housing market crashed in December of 2008.
Obama was inaugurated on January 20th 2009.
Correct it was Clinton. I have an article bookmarked somewhere. I also have an article bookmarked with Obama trying to bring the same policies back. It just wasn’t going to happen again.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:04:14 PM EST
[#13]
HBO movie explains it - Too Big To Fail.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:06:45 PM EST
[#14]
Major banks started bundling mortgages into securities.  These proved popular - largely due to the fact that the mortgages selected conformed to Fannie/Freddie standards for good credit risks.  So popular that the demand rose.  To meet demand, those banks began bundling a range of mortgages into securities - some/an increasing number of marginal credit risk.  The exact composition of any security bundle was essentially unknown.  Speculation led to increased buying of these "mixed risk" securities, then buying and trading of them.

Problem is that a lot of people bought a lot more house than their credit would reasonably support.  And those same risky people assumed that the value of the house would increase - at the time that the housing market was reaching historic highs.  And to afford that house (which they couldn't really afford) they took out "stated income" loans ("liar loans"), "interest only loans", risky ARMs, financed 100-110% of the house value, falsified financial and tax records etc.  Then they bought lots of new furniture to furnish the house.  Throw in a new car.  Leveraged past their ability to pay.  Kind of like a "free beer Freshman kegger".  On top of this, institutions like AIG offered insurance on these securities.  But the mathematical risk profiles in the bank's/AIG's computers were written for normative risk - not the higher "mixed bundling" risk that became popular but was largely not understood because everyone was enjoying the profits.

The key was to not be holding loans/bundles/securities when mortgage defaults began increasing and then the market turned.  Turned sharply.  The largest banks in the world (less Chase) were not sufficiently capitalized to handle the sharp turn in risk for the portfolios they were holding.  AIG wasn't capitalized enough/failed to appraise the real risk when the defaults started to increase.  Then the damn burst and there weren't enough lifeboats and it immediately threatened the Western economies and banks.

Boom.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:09:13 PM EST
[#15]
We made a ton in MBS stocks. Got out when a real estate developer buddy of mine made a comment about starter homes with zero down on the golf course one day. Next day I started digging and decided to sell. THANK GOD.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:12:34 PM EST
[#16]
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The govt had very little to do with it.  Mortgage brokers were chasing fees, the banks were chasing fees, the people buying the CDO's were chasing yield.  Nonconforming and Subprime loans offered higher yields and fees.  It was a shit show. The bankers got greedy and it blew up in their face.  They did not learn a damn thing because the govt. bailed their ass out.
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Quoted:
Wasn't the whole thing with shaky loans because the government started pressuring lenders to lend to people with shoddy credit with some promise of being recouped?
The govt had very little to do with it.  Mortgage brokers were chasing fees, the banks were chasing fees, the people buying the CDO's were chasing yield.  Nonconforming and Subprime loans offered higher yields and fees.  It was a shit show. The bankers got greedy and it blew up in their face.  They did not learn a damn thing because the govt. bailed their ass out.
Subprime was a catalyst not the driver. It was probably the biggest catalyst because it created the momentum, but once there was momentum, everybody was in the game.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:15:21 PM EST
[#17]
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Quoted:
-Bankers and politicians made a whole lot of stupid loans, to stupid people, for stupid reasons.

-Loans defaulted for obvious reasons if you ever read a financial text book.

-Instead of going to jail for fraud, corruption and the like. Banks got a bail out. And one of the greatest financial heists in history took place and no one cared. Or even understood what was happening.
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A lot of people should have gone to Jail, however TARP is one of the few government ideas that actually paid a return to the taxpayers to the tune of $15.3 billion dollars.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:20:00 PM EST
[#18]
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Quoted:
Question for knowledge people because I don’t know

Did Bush handle the crash the right way with the bailout!
Should he have let it crash and correct itself?
Possibly something in between?
View Quote
It was one way of doing it, it didn’t decimate the economy, no bank holidays and in the end actually made a $15.3 billion profit.  Also since then banks have had to increase reserves on loans.

Get this, back in the day you were criticized by examiners for excess loan reserves.  Why?  .gov wasn’t able to tax money that went into the loan loss reserve.  You couldn’t say, were saving for an unknown economic event, you had to try and justify why you had loan loss reserves.  Love the .gov

More people should have gone to jail
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:23:43 PM EST
[#19]
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Quoted:
Major banks started bundling mortgages into securities.  These proved popular - largely due to the fact that the mortgages selected conformed to Fannie/Freddie standards for good credit risks.  So popular that the demand rose.  To meet demand, those banks began bundling a range of mortgages into securities - some/an increasing number of marginal credit risk.  The exact composition of any security bundle was essentially unknown.  Speculation led to increased buying of these "mixed risk" securities, then buying and trading of them.

Problem is that a lot of people bought a lot more house than their credit would reasonably support.  And those same risky people assumed that the value of the house would increase - at the time that the housing market was reaching historic highs.  And to afford that house (which they couldn't really afford) they took out "stated income" loans ("liar loans"), "interest only loans", risky ARMs, financed 100-110% of the house value, falsified financial and tax records etc.  Then they bought lots of new furniture to furnish the house.  Throw in a new car.  Leveraged past their ability to pay.  Kind of like a "free beer Freshman kegger".  On top of this, institutions like AIG offered insurance on these securities.  But the mathematical risk profiles in the bank's/AIG's computers were written for normative risk - not the higher "mixed bundling" risk that became popular but was largely not understood because everyone was enjoying the profits.

The key was to not be holding loans/bundles/securities when mortgage defaults began increasing and then the market turned.  Turned sharply.  The largest banks in the world (less Chase) were not sufficiently capitalized to handle the sharp turn in risk for the portfolios they were holding.  AIG wasn't capitalized enough/failed to appraise the real risk when the defaults started to increase.  Then the damn burst and there weren't enough lifeboats and it immediately threatened the Western economies and banks.

Boom.
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On thing I have to say is the the investment houses and MBS were not initially “shady”. All historical data indicated that mortgages were a secure investment and the idea of bundling them together was even more secure. Reason being that if they were bundled together, a few defaults would be offset by the good ones (which the majority were believed to be the good ones). It was only til near the end game where MBS were being used to hide things by those that started to figure out what was going on.

Is hard to blame anyone in particular but it was a chain of events and everyone bears some of it.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:28:43 PM EST
[#20]
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Quoted:

A fifth grader can debunk your theory.
The housing market crashed in December of 2008.
Obama was inaugurated on January 20th 2009.
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Obama worked the banks when he was a senator and before.  Not as president.  And I did not say as president.  Obama and his cohorts, fellow democrats.  You can read some newspapers about how he pressured the banks to issue loans to subprime lenders,

And get an education before insulting someone who knows more than you do,
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:31:09 PM EST
[#21]
W/O reading the other replies:

Carter signed the Community Reinvestment Act, which made banks give loans to higher risk customers. Didn't cause too many problems.

Clinton expanded it, bigly. It increased the bad debt, basically sold as junk bonds.

Housing got stupid expensive, bad debts got bigger, was no longer sustainable.

Boom. Economy crashes.

Law is still in effect.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:32:02 PM EST
[#22]
Subprime loans and non traditional loans such as adjustable interest loans that unqualified people used is what sank the real estate market in 08.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:36:40 PM EST
[#23]
heheh.. my bro was structuring mortgage loans at the time at a black owned bank.. he was the token white guy in case they had a white client

He has some stories...
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:36:53 PM EST
[#24]
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Quoted:

A fifth grader can debunk your theory.
The housing market crashed in December of 2008.
Obama was inaugurated on January 20th 2009.
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Quoted:

A fifth grader can debunk your theory.
The housing market crashed in December of 2008.
Obama was inaugurated on January 20th 2009.
I said Obama and his cohorts pressured the banks to issue subprime oans to people who couldn’t afford it.
Even a fifth grader could have used google before he made an ass of himself like you just did...
I googled “Obama pressured banks subprime loans” like you could have, and Oh, gosh, what came up?
Investors Business Daily... How Obama Bankrupted Black Homeowners!
You have been OWNED

Before the crisis, Obama pushed thousands of credit-poor blacks into homes they couldn't afford. As a civil-rights attorney, he sued banks to rubberstamp mortgages for urban residents.

Many are now in foreclosure. In fact, the lead client in one of his class-action suits has since lost her home and filed bankruptcy.

First some background: Obama focused on "housing rights" when he worked as a lawyer-activist and community organizer in South Side Chicago. His mentor — the man who placed him in his first job there — was the father of the anti-redlining movement: John McKnight. He coined the term "redlining" to describe the mapping off of minority neighborhoods from home loans.

McKnight wrote a letter for Obama that helped him get into Harvard. After he graduated, he worked for a Chicago civil-rights law firm that worked closely with McKnight's radical Gamaliel Foundation and National People's Action, as well as Acorn, to solicit lending-discrimination cases.

At the time, NPA and Acorn were lobbying the Clinton administration to tighten enforcement of anti-redlining laws.

They also dispatched bus loads of goons trained by Obama to the doorsteps of bankers to demand more home loans for minorities. Acorn even crashed the lobby of Citibank's headquarters in New York and accused it of discriminating against blacks.

The pressure worked. In 1994, Clinton's top bank regulators signed a landmark anti-redlining policy that declared traditional mortgage underwriting standards racist and mandated banks apply easier lending rules for minorities.

Also that year, Attorney General Janet Reno and her aide Eric Holder filed a mortgage discrimination case against a Washington-area bank that forced it to target minority neighborhoods for subprime loans.

Reno and Holder also encouraged civil-rights lawyers like Obama to file local lending-bias cases against banks.

The next year, Obama led a class-action suit against Citibank on behalf of several Chicago minorities who claimed they were rejected for home loans because of the color of their skin. It was one of 11 such suits filed against the financial giant in Chicago and New York in the 1990s.

As first reported in Paul Sperry's "The Great American Bank Robbery," the plaintiffs' claim lacked merit. Factors other than race figured in the bank's decision to turn them down for loans.

One of Obama's clients had "inadequate collateral" and "an incomplete application," while another had "delinquent credit obligations and other adverse credit history."

Obama argued such facts miss the point: that Citibank's neutral underwriting criteria may have adversely impacted his clients as a class of people. He demanded it turn over loan files from the entire Chicago metro area to prove it regularly engaged in a pattern of discrimination.

The court didn't award him the files. But Citibank eventually settled, despite the weak case. Under the 1998 settlement, Citibank vowed to pay the alleged victims $1.4 million and launch a program to boost home lending to poor blacks in the metro area.

In the run-up to the crisis, Citibank underwrote thousands of shaky subprime mortgages to satisfy the court in Obama's case. Defaults were common. When home prices collapsed, most of the loans went bust.

His lead African-American client, Selma Buycks-Roberson, who was denied a loan due to bad credit and low income, got her mortgage only to default on it years later.

She got a foreclosure notice in 2008, according to The Daily Caller website, along with many of her Chicago neighbors.

By putting them on the hook for loans they couldn't pay, Obama did them no favors. Blacks have been hit hardest by foreclosures. But what does Obama care? The Caller reports he pocketed at least $23,000 from the Citibank case.

Today, he blames the devastating wealth drain in black communities on subprime mortgages. He says "greedy," "predatory" lenders tricked poor minorities into paying higher fees and interest rates.

But Obama was for subprime loans before he was against them. "Subprime loans started off as a good idea," he said as those loans began to sour in 2007.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:37:10 PM EST
[#25]
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We made a ton in MBS stocks. Got out when a real estate developer buddy of mine made a comment about starter homes with zero down on the golf course one day. Next day I started digging and decided to sell. THANK GOD.
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You were smarter than most.
I know of more than a few people who were pretty well off prior that it bankrupted and a only a couple that became well off because of the crash. Most of the ones I know who lost everything were leveraged to the hilt, prior to the crash they were worth a chuck of money.
If one only knew when to be flush with cash vs having it invested elsewhere.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 7:57:20 PM EST
[#26]
the banks gave everyone loans then the deatbeats stopped paying loans back.  that simple.   moral of story don't lend money to people that can't pay it back.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:05:36 PM EST
[#27]
Look at the interest rates leading up to 2008.

2001 - Federal Reserve drops interest rates to ~1% after 9/11, to avoid panic.  
2004 - Federal Reserve began cranking up interest rates.  
2006 - Federal Reserve figures out they raised rates too quickly and stops.  
2007 - Federal Reserve begins to lower rates.  Economy is crashing.  
2008 - Crash.

Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:08:40 PM EST
[#28]
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Obama worked the banks when he was a senator and before.  Not as president.  And I did not say as president.  Obama and his cohorts, fellow democrats.  You can read some newspapers about how he pressured the banks to issue loans to subprime lenders,

And get an education before insulting someone who knows more than you do,
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A fifth grader can debunk your theory.
The housing market crashed in December of 2008.
Obama was inaugurated on January 20th 2009.
Obama worked the banks when he was a senator and before.  Not as president.  And I did not say as president.  Obama and his cohorts, fellow democrats.  You can read some newspapers about how he pressured the banks to issue loans to subprime lenders,

And get an education before insulting someone who knows more than you do,
@thump_rrr
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/fingerprints-of-obama-on-subprime-foreclosure-crisis/
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:18:37 PM EST
[#29]
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We made a ton in MBS stocks. Got out when a real estate developer buddy of mine made a comment about starter homes with zero down on the golf course one day. Next day I started digging and decided to sell. THANK GOD.
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I'm honestly not trying to be a smart ass.  Good for you.

By '05 into '06 I could see finished lots sitting for longer periods before home building started.  Along with the fact no one verified my income or employment on my first ever mortgage, I started to see the writing on the wall.  By mid-'06 I started to transition away from construction.

But at the time I did not begin to understand just how bad the financial implosion was going to be.  By spring of '07 it was like someone shut the spigot off. I had no idea what a derivative was aside from having to take Calc I for my BS.

I survived but it sucked balls.

We refinanced last year to cut time and rate, it was night and day from '04.  They made me turn my head and cough.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:23:35 PM EST
[#30]
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As much as I hate Obama, the seeds for this mess were sewn well before he had any power.
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This was before he was president.  He sued the crap outta big banks and forced them to start issuing the loans to people who could never in life afford to pay them back, because “Racism”.

So you can hate him for this as well.

Do a google search and you will find loads of articles about his time as a lawyer doing this, and then as a senator.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:25:18 PM EST
[#31]
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Point of order: When this blew up, Barry Hussein Soetoro was a nobody with a big mouth who nobody outside of Chicago had ever heard of. This was a GWB/FBJC production.
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And for you as well.  Do some research before you try to call someone out.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/fingerprints-of-obama-on-subprime-foreclosure-crisis/
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:27:07 PM EST
[#32]
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Add "Margin Call" to your watch list.
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Very underrated.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:31:29 PM EST
[#33]
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Margin Call is an excellent movie.

The Big Short is also a great one.
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Add "Too Big To Fail".  Its from the perspective of the US Treasury.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:40:54 PM EST
[#34]
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Thanks Obunghole.
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thanks obama? no. thanks bush. im not an obama fan but the whole process started with W. some of it had to do with pumping the economy after 911, some of it had to do with making loans to 'disadvantages peoples'. but it all happened during W's term in office. and bush started the process of 'lets fix too big to fail'. so obama inherited the problem. there is prolly criticism about how he dealt with the fallout, but the problem came right out of W's term.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:41:45 PM EST
[#35]
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@gym007 yo boi Beiber really fucked it up with S.Go.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:50:26 PM EST
[#36]
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Quoted:
Add "Margin Call" to your watch list.
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Big +1 on that flick!

How Wall street Crashed & Burned...
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:54:50 PM EST
[#37]
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Add "Too Big To Fail".  Its from the perspective of the US Treasury.
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Margin Call is an excellent movie.

The Big Short is also a great one.
Add "Too Big To Fail".  Its from the perspective of the US Treasury.
thats a pretty good explanation. watch that documentary and watch how the left and the right, bush and the democratic congress sat down and worked out the issues. you may not have liked how things worked out. and i dont know if what was done was right or wrong but both sides tried to find solutions..

now consider how that would have gone if the president had been trump. and no im not upset my girl lost, i just recognize the trump takes no prisoners and the other side has been sharpening their knives for almost 4 years. we get into a sticky situation that requires both sides to work out a serious problem and it may not happen.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:55:57 PM EST
[#38]
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Yeah, if you have a couple hours, watch it.  Good flick and pretty close to how it went down.

And it even honestly showed how no one responsible was held accountable.
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Honestly, the movie explains it fairly well.
Yeah, if you have a couple hours, watch it.  Good flick and pretty close to how it went down.

And it even honestly showed how no one responsible was held accountable.
The people who have the power to hold the guilty to account were in and of themselves, the once who needed to be held accountable.

The market has always and will always take the legal framework to it's extreme logical conclusion.  If it's legal and possible to make subprime loans or sell exotic derivatives at a profit, then you can bet your ass that someone is going to do it.

The 2008 crisis is 100% on our government for failing in their regulatory responsibilities.  You can blame any single private or corporate entity you want for the crisis but had it not been them, it would have been someone else.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 8:59:30 PM EST
[#39]
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Add "Margin Call" to your watch list.
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I need to watch this movie...
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 9:00:44 PM EST
[#40]
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Wasn't the whole thing with shaky loans because the government started pressuring lenders to lend to people with shoddy credit with some promise of being recouped?
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Some of that, plus the banks packaging the loans basically telling the rating agency what rating to give the mortgage backed securities (MBS) so they could take a shit ton of junk credit and package it together as A paper and make monies. That plus the “everyone gets a mortgage” thing causing the nationwide/worldwide collapse of those securities thus killing the diversification that packaging all those loans together would give you. No amount of diversification can replace quality fundamentals.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 9:04:49 PM EST
[#41]
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The people who have the power to hold the guilty to account were in and of themselves, the once who needed to be held accountable.

The market has always and will always take the legal framework to it's extreme logical conclusion.  If it's legal and possible to make subprime loans or sell exotic derivatives at a profit, then you can bet your ass that someone is going to do it.

The 2008 crisis is 100% on our government for failing in their regulatory responsibilities.  You can blame any single private or corporate entity you want for the crisis but had it not been them, it would have been someone else.
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The Federal Reserve was part of the problem.  They jacked up interest rates wayyyy too fast - - the prime went from 1% to 5% in about 18 months.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 9:06:40 PM EST
[#42]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBG2k8PAy2I[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CukM4Eoi7Q[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvYvQeNeq3A[/youtube]
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 9:07:53 PM EST
[#43]
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Quoted:
LOL, it's been pointed out several times in this thread that this wasn't Obama's doing yet people continue to bark about it. Trained seals display more critical thinking skills than some folks it seems.
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And they are partly right about Obama being guilty.
Obama had a hand in pressuring banks and the govt.
on giving loans to minorities.
This was back when he was a Community Organizer. How do you not know this?
Maybe you should do some research before questioning others abilities?
Obama and the HL Crash
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 9:29:14 PM EST
[#44]
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Excellent explanation though you left out one detail. Due to the ease of borrowing, housing prices started to rise.  The subprime buyers were only the catalyst. Once the prices started going up, everyone got in on the action. As perceived values increased, more people were motivated to sell and “trade up”.  Additional people began to buy speculatively on investment properties by leveraging their current assets. Home equity loans were taken to buy “investment” vacation homes. More home equity loans were taken for home improvements to “increase the value” of the properties. Prices continued to go up and up. People were buying and selling across all income brackets until it reached a big ass bubble. Even joe middle class was getting greedy on the ride up at this point. Values peaked sales slowed down values dropped and everybody was so over leveraged that their assets were no longer valued anywhere near their debts.  That’s when the cracks started to show in the damn. A free people saw the cracks, but when it broke, boom, it was quick ride to the bottom.
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Please tell me if I have this right so far:

You have mortgage backed bonds.  These are bonds that are full of mortgages.  If the homeowner's pay their mortgage, the holder of the bond makes money.  These are *relatively* safe (at least in terms of collapsing the whole system), even when people do stupid shit like buy 4000 square foot houses when they have half-assed jobs.

Then there are "CDOs", which are basically the same thing, except they have some riskier components, like auto loans, credit cards, etc.

Then there are "synthetic CDOs", or "CDO squared's".

What are these?

In order to multiply the original mortgage bond investment 20-fold, don't you need people betting against the mortgage holders at some point?  And, if they are right, where does the money come from?

I need this explained like I'm 5 years old.

Thanks.
Mortgage backed bonds are simply instruments that pay out cashflows that come from the underlying mortgages. There are several different types.

A CDO is a broader category. A MBS can be thought of as a type of CDO. A CDO can exist without actually being backed by the underlying asset, instead using derivative products bundled together. They end up essentially being a side bet on the underlying asset, in a sense. So, the money simply comes from a counter party that is willing to bet against you.

These positions may not be "naked" in the sense that the people using the CDOs or derivative products may have certain exposures (like they've sold insurance against a product, and are trying to offset some of the risk associated with that) that they are trying to hedge. Or, they could simply be speculating.

It gets complicated in a hurry.

The market meltdown can boil down to this. The government had been subsidizing the housing market for a long, long time through federal lending programs. This helped people buy houses even though they couldn't normally have gotten loans via normal processes at banks. These mortgages had insurance on them, the government promised to pay the banks if the borrower's defaulted. These mortgages were fairly uniform debts, they shared a lot of common features, and they were all backed by insurance (VA/FHA). GNMA and the other agencies would buy these mortgages from the issuing banks. This put cash back in the banks, so they could make more loans. Then, GNMA and the others actually collected on the mortgages. To fund this process, GNMA and the others issued bonds, which were backed by the payments coming from the mortgages, and these mortgages were all insured by the government, so it was pretty safe. These bonds were the first real mortgage backed securities. The issuing banks thus made their money issuing new loans and flipping them over to GNMA. And it's all funded by investors who are buying the MBS's because they want real estate exposure with a lot of safety.

Fast forward 40 years. Banks don't have a lot of incentive to really verify all the info on a loan, because they don't really sit on it and bear the default risk. The borrower's don't have any incentive not to lie on the loan application, because they want to buy as much house as possible. Lots of other MBS's and credit default swaps, and CDOs are now floating around, as everyone figured out how to make money in every direction as often as they could. The credit risk ratings on MBSs are different than bonds, even though they kind of look the same, so a lot of people were fooled into thinking they were safer than they actually were. Sometimes companies just lied about the risk level.

All of the major banks have multiple insurance contracts, CDS's, and interlocking arrangements built up upon this system. This basically isn't really a problem, as long as everyone has enough cash to pay out and keep the financial faucets flowing.

Until... people who've borrowed too much on their mortgages start having trouble paying for them. Some of them got floating rate loans, and the rates go up. Their payments go up. They can't pay them. They start to default.

A lot of the MBS's that have been issued aren't backed by government insured mortgages. Or even if they are, the thing is, the MBS payments aren't insured. Or you were in the wrong tranche, so the payments you're supposed to get on your MBS get axed. Maybe it defaults.

No problem, you think, we bought an insurance product (CDS) on the MBS, so when it defaults, our counter party has to pay out. And that's important because you are on the other side of some other insurance like products, and you need to start paying your counterparties on those contracts. As long as the payments all happen, like they are promised to, it works.

But, as it turns out, your insurer is also having cash flow problems, because a lot of their contracts are starting to pay out. They are having trouble meeting their obligations, due to everyone trying to collect at the same time. So they can't pay you, even though they definitely owe you payments. And now you can't pay out on your obligations. So you're gonna screw over the people you owe money.

Welcome to contagion. Liquidity problems start to propagate across the market. People can't pay because people aren't paying them, and this causes a real shit show of defaults.

That's why it's called a "credit crisis". When liquidity dried up, it didn't matter what you were supposed to have on paper. Your insurance products were crap, not because you were stupid, but because the person on the other side just couldn't live up to their end of the bargain, because someone on the other side of them didn't hold up their end, and round and round it went.
Excellent explanation though you left out one detail. Due to the ease of borrowing, housing prices started to rise.  The subprime buyers were only the catalyst. Once the prices started going up, everyone got in on the action. As perceived values increased, more people were motivated to sell and “trade up”.  Additional people began to buy speculatively on investment properties by leveraging their current assets. Home equity loans were taken to buy “investment” vacation homes. More home equity loans were taken for home improvements to “increase the value” of the properties. Prices continued to go up and up. People were buying and selling across all income brackets until it reached a big ass bubble. Even joe middle class was getting greedy on the ride up at this point. Values peaked sales slowed down values dropped and everybody was so over leveraged that their assets were no longer valued anywhere near their debts.  That’s when the cracks started to show in the damn. A free people saw the cracks, but when it broke, boom, it was quick ride to the bottom.
Yes. One thing I try to remind people of is that the crisis wasn't just the fault of the government and banks.

It was everybody. The public was fully participating in activity that directly led to the disaster. Tons of people who got loans they never should have gotten, that lied on their application, that just made moronic financial decisions.... Plenty of blame to go around.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 9:57:54 PM EST
[#45]
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I cried laughing at the chicken w/o a head scene back then.

But as with most things, their breakdown was brutally honest and hilarious.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 10:05:49 PM EST
[#46]
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Quoted:
LOL, it's been pointed out several times in this thread that this wasn't Obama's doing yet people continue to bark about it. Trained seals display more critical thinking skills than some folks it seems.
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Technically it goes all the way back to Carter.  Clinton is the one who really drove it into the ground though.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 10:17:25 PM EST
[#47]
The government started saying checking credit for mortgages was racist, and would buy shit mortgages from banks via Fannie and Freddy. Then they paid Wall Street banks to mix this crap debt in with AAA debt so sell it off to investors.

Massive moral hazard on all sides. Banks got paid for originating mortgages. Fannie and Freddie execs got rich by compensation based on hitting quotas of mortgages made largely to unqualified lenders. Wall Street banks got rich from fees securitizing stinky crap mortgages, camouflaging it with AAA debt, and selling it to investors around the world who thought they were buying safe American mortgage debt vetted by the American banking industry and ever-appreciating American real estate as collateral.

Then the bad creditors the government said that it was racist to not lend to started defaulting and it all started collapsing.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 10:20:09 PM EST
[#48]
In terms of percentage of money involved it was really a California bubble. Everyone was told if for some reason you couldn't make the payments you could always sell the house for more then you payed for it. That doesn't work if the housing market isn't great. Plenty knew the growing prices had outgrown what a large percentage of the people making those payments could realistically afford. Creative loans were used to keep the pyramid scheme going for a few years. Then even more creative loans were invented so those who knew what was coming could quickly divest their investments. The creativity in the loans was for telling a story after the fact. They were obviously a fraud for anyone who bothered with simple math. Contrary to how the story is portrayed there is no mystery. There was no black swan event. This type of event just keeps repeating in history.
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 10:20:17 PM EST
[#49]
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Quoted:
Technically it goes all the way back to Carter.  Clinton is the one who really drove it into the ground though.
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Quoted:
LOL, it's been pointed out several times in this thread that this wasn't Obama's doing yet people continue to bark about it. Trained seals display more critical thinking skills than some folks it seems.
Technically it goes all the way back to Carter.  Clinton is the one who really drove it into the ground though.
Yes.  Democrats during the Clinton administration figured how to enrich themselves by incentivizing banks to conform to the CRA using Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac, and using Wall Street to securtize the risky debt, and it was off to the races.  This was the mastermind behind it all:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_A._Johnson_(Minnesota_politician)
Link Posted: 2/18/2020 10:22:05 PM EST
[#50]
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The government started saying checking credit for mortgages was racist, and would buy shit mortgages from banks via Fannie and Freddy. Then they paid Wall Street banks to mix this crap debt in with AAA debt so sell it off to investors.

Massive moral hazard on all sides. Banks got paid for originating mortgages. Fannie and Freddie execs got rich by hitting business quotas. Wall Street banks got rich from fees securitizing stinky crap mortgages, camouflaging it with AAA debt, and selling it to investors around the world who thought they were buying American mortgage debt vetted by the American banking industry.

Then the bad creditors the government said was racist to not lend to started defaulting and it all started collapsing.
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Obama had a hand in it before he ever took office.
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