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Posted: 2/14/2017 11:59:30 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Welp, just another unedumicated monday-morning quarterbacker here, but: Seems to me there is no possible way they could line the entire e-spillway with the rocks-and-concrete mix (riprap, they're calling it?), b/c it's just TOO fucking wide. And, looks like chances favor, they ARE going to be using it again. In fact, if the inflow continues as projected, they aren't really going to have any choice in the matter. 
Any chance, then, they can build a berm of rocks-and-concrete mix all along the parking lot edge to at least concentrate the flow into a smaller area to be lined? Still an impossible task, I expect, but looking at the pic, it would at least cut the area that needed lining in half. At least the e-spillway flow is nice and gentle, as compared to the firehose blast on the main spillway. It was relatively gentle with a foot and a half coming over it. If 5 or 6 feet come over it will be a different story, especially if they compound it by cutting the width in half. Width is their friend. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:01:25 PM EDT
[#2]
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I don't want to alarm anyone, but apparently this thing has a history of dropping an earthquake after a "rapid fluctuation" in water levels. <a href="http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm" target="_blank">http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm</a> Here's a question for the geologists. The crappy material a the emergency spillway... it looks OLD and weathered/decomposed to me, but is it possible some of that fracturing was not initially there when they built this sucker, and that the fracturing occurred later as a result of seismic activity? Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don't want to alarm anyone, but apparently this thing has a history of dropping an earthquake after a "rapid fluctuation" in water levels. <a href="http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm" target="_blank">http://www.johnmartin.com/earthquakes/eqpapers/00000052.htm</a> Here's a question for the geologists. The crappy material a the emergency spillway... it looks OLD and weathered/decomposed to me, but is it possible some of that fracturing was not initially there when they built this sucker, and that the fracturing occurred later as a result of seismic activity? From your article: At both Oroville and Koyna the major burst of seismicity did not occur upon initial filling, but occurred several years later following an unprecedented seasonal refilling in each case Seems to be exactly what's happening right now... |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:01:32 PM EDT
[#3]
So have we bothered to find a copy of the original design standard yet? It probably specifies exactly what would have been allowed at the time. Especially in relation to the emergency spillway design,, intent, and allowable construction.
As has also been said, this was not designed to function as it is being used. While basic hydraulic s may not have changed too much in the last 60 years, construction techniques most certainly have. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:03:26 PM EDT
[#4]
So when is this storm suppose to hit?
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:05:16 PM EDT
[#5]
Is the dam thing gonna fail?
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:06:12 PM EDT
[#6]
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Is the dam thing gonna fail? No. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:06:12 PM EDT
[#7]
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There IS no low level intake. NONE. Option 1 USED to be "run hydro power". Stopped by: threat to power lines, back flow (and rise of river level) caused by debris and erosion of the main spillway failure (caused by lack of maintenance.) Option 2 USED to be "use bypass tunnel" (the one used during dam build.) Sopped by: they plugged it up. After an accident in 2009 (the one where the dudes almost got sucked in) the valve was damaged and they didn't fix it. (Notice a pattern yet?) They can dredge out the river and reduce flow of the main spillway (oops! can't do that!) and restart hydro assuming there isn't damage due to flooding in there. (A very big if, and a lot of work.) Or, they could use some sort of remote machines and fuck around with very high pressure tunnels and open a valve that they a) might not get closed again b) might fuck up the hydro chamber and destroy the turbines. Bottom line is, the "flex capacity" of that lake is now between 901 at top (or whatever the highest not to be up against the e-spillway is) down to 851 where the bottom of the main spillway is. The rest, they CANNOT DRAIN. And, it's still winter, and it's still raining or snowing or melting up there. And everybody else is full. And they've got huge construction problems just doing the stuff they need to keep the emergency spillway intact. They are fucked. There are going to be huge floods. No matter what. If they are lucky, they won't come at high speed in the form of a wall of water. Excellent description. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:06:19 PM EDT
[#8]
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So when is this storm suppose to hit? Sometime on thursday I think. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:06:58 PM EDT
[#9]
Reading the seismic report brings up this gem:
Simpson (1976, p. 146) noted the paradox "that if there is an indication of an impending increase in the level of seismicity, one of the obvious ways of decreasing danger downstream from the dam---the rapid emptying of the reservoir---may in fact increase the danger by triggering a further increase in the level of activity." Quite apart from dealing with the dam itself, now they are playing trampoline with the underground plates by filling it too far and then emptying it. Which for their part they can't do very much. But when it does, it can apparently cause quakes. Damned if you do, dammed if you don't. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:08:35 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So have we bothered to find a copy of the original design standard yet? It probably specifies exactly what would have been allowed at the time. Especially in relation to the emergency spillway design,, intent, and allowable construction. As has also been said, this was not designed to function as it is being used. While basic hydraulic s may not have changed too much in the last 60 years, construction techniques most certainly have. You won't find much detailed info on a dam this size. It's considered CII (critical infrastructure information) and kept fairly close hold. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:10:04 PM EDT
[#11]
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It's my belief that's why they wanted to test the emergency spillway to see if it's viable. There's record snow levels in the Sierra's and last week's storm wasn't even that bad. The worst is coming. If the e-spill had held safely they could have shut off the main spillway and attempted something to shore it up and prevent uphill erosion. They also could have worked on removing the debris preventing them from running the hydro outlet as the e-spill empties out much further down the canal. That's what they talked about doing in one of the early press conferences. They are probably shoring up the e-spill as much as they can because there's a distinct possibility they may not be able to keep up with inflows in the coming weeks/months using the main spillway and water is going over that thing again and they want it to hold as long as possible. Just my wild ass guess. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:11:49 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Reading the seismic report brings up this gem: Quite apart from dealing with the dam itself, now they are playing trampoline with the underground plates by filling it too far and then emptying it. Which for their part they can't do very much. But when it does, it can apparently cause quakes. Damned if you do, dammed if you don't. So if there is an uncontrolled release from a weakened espillway, it could be followed by a nice earthquake... Which could further damage the dam... Nice. I'm glad I live in WI! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:12:52 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You won't find much detailed info on a dam this size. It's considered CII (critical infrastructure information) and kept fairly close hold. You can tell how "critical" this asset is by how well they have maintained it. 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:13:48 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You won't find much detailed info on a dam this size. It's considered CII (critical infrastructure information) and kept fairly close hold. The design guide should however be out there somewhere... |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:13:52 PM EDT
[#15]
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So when is this storm suppose to hit? As early as 7pm tomorrow, getting heavier as the night goes on. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:16:40 PM EDT
[#16]
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Posssible they'd like to save the hydro plant Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I found a report that says the river valve outlet was partially repaired in 2014, and tested in 2014 - 2015 up to half capacity. Since the river valve uses the same tunnels as the plant, they can not open it without further flooding to the plant due to the debri at the end of the spillway backing up the water. They use howitzers to clear avalanche build ups, why not drop some precision guided munitions on the debris build up to clear it out? Yeah, an earthquake will solve this conundrum. Posssible they'd like to save the hydro plant I'm not saying drop them on the plant. My understanding is the outflows at the base of the dam are blocked with debris that needs to be dredged out but they can't get in there because the spillway is running. They use explosives to clear beaver damns and blocked rivers all the time. Why wouldn't explosive work in this case? Honest question. If the answer is because no one can get in there, then why wouldn't precision guided munitions be an option? If the answer is because it's not that kind of blockage, then ok. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:19:42 PM EDT
[#17]
In other news, our local reservoir, Lake Berryessa, is only 1/2" from spilling into the glory hole:
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:19:49 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4kGF1nUMAEWmrh.jpg:large that is very not good. it appears the surface rock is very fractured and is failing when velocity concentrates. Lots of us already called this a while back. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:23:21 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
In other news, our local reservoir, Lake Berryessa, is only 1/2" from spilling into the glory hole: <a href="https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg" target="_blank">https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg</a> I thought you were being funny calling it the Glory Hole. Then I looked it up. 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:26:11 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm not saying drop them on the plant. My understanding is the outflows at the base of the dam are blocked with debris that needs to be dredged out but they can't get in there because the spillway is running. They use explosives to clear beaver damns and blocked rivers all the time. Why wouldn't explosive work in this case? Honest question. If the answer is because no one can get in there, then why wouldn't precision guided munitions be an option? If the answer is because it's not that kind of blockage, then ok. Blow a beaver dam and the debris breaks up and floats downstream. Rock and runoff debris, not so much. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:26:33 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I thought you were being funny calling it the Glory Hole. Then I looked it up. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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In other news, our local reservoir, Lake Berryessa, is only 1/2" from spilling into the glory hole: <a href="https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg" target="_blank">https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg</a> I thought you were being funny calling it the Glory Hole. Then I looked it up. So you just googled "glory hole" ? LOL Did you do that at work? Do update us about you chat with HR. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:28:31 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm not saying drop them on the plant. My understanding is the outflows at the base of the dam are blocked with debris that needs to be dredged out but they can't get in there because the spillway is running. They use explosives to clear beaver damns and blocked rivers all the time. Why wouldn't explosive work in this case? Honest question. If the answer is because no one can get in there, then why wouldn't precision guided munitions be an option? If the answer is because it's not that kind of blockage, then ok. This calls for MS Paint 
ETA: Now the real danger would be the massive shockwave jolting all the already saturated soil. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:30:07 PM EDT
[#23]
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They were dropping them in a sink hole at the north end between the parking lot and the road. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Any pics or vids of where the rocks/bags were placed yesterday? The big hole downstream near the end of the e-spillway near the parking lot? They were dropping them in a sink hole at the north end between the parking lot and the road. 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:31:48 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They use howitzers to clear avalanche build ups, why not drop some precision guided munitions on the debris build up to clear it out? Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I found a report that says the river valve outlet was partially repaired in 2014, and tested in 2014 - 2015 up to half capacity. Since the river valve uses the same tunnels as the plant, they can not open it without further flooding to the plant due to the debri at the end of the spillway backing up the water. They use howitzers to clear avalanche build ups, why not drop some precision guided munitions on the debris build up to clear it out? Water is not compressible. Depending on the distance between the debris and the face of the dam, using explosives could cause dam failures from the shockwaves. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:32:32 PM EDT
[#25]
Just a general update for the Sacramento / Oroville area:
1. There was a 22 car derailment of a Union Pacific train in Elk Grove (suburban Sacramento) on Friday. UP states "flooded swamp-like conditions" likely a factor. 2. Hwy 50 in Kyburz will remain closed indefinitely due to mudslides. 3. Crews are working to stabilize a levee on the Mokelumne river that protects Tyler Island and eastern Walnut Grove. This is the shit sandwich that keeps on giving. Note: These items not directly associated with the Oroville Dam or Feather River, just all the water currently in the area. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:33:44 PM EDT
[#26]
Hey, at least they opened one lane on I80 in Pollock Pines.
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:34:35 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
In other news, our local reservoir, Lake Berryessa, is only 1/2" from spilling into the glory hole: https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/102931/glory-hole-spills-021217-146565.jpg |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:35:43 PM EDT
[#28]
I came for the collapse. When should I check back?
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:35:46 PM EDT
[#29]
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Report says the final fix to the river valve would only provide 5400 cfs of flow. Have not found anything that states there was a 100% test. Well that is not much but better than that flow going over the E-spillway . |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:36:29 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So if there is an uncontrolled release from a weakened espillway, it could be followed by a nice earthquake... Which could further damage the dam... Nice. I'm glad I live in WI! If there's an earthquake, the emergency spillway will be the least of your concerns. Liquifactoon of the earthen dam however would be a very real possibility. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:37:53 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I came for the collapse. When should I check back? Thursday |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:40:30 PM EDT
[#32]
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It's the same with most funding. No big dollar donor wants to hear they just gave a bunch of money to update the plumbing of and existing building - no matter how bad it needed it.... Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Neal Boortz used to say politicians get their names permanently posted on new projects, not on repairing and maintaining existing infrastructure. It's the same with most funding. No big dollar donor wants to hear they just gave a bunch of money to update the plumbing of and existing building - no matter how bad it needed it.... Vic Fazio FTW! Or FTL. Or FVF. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:40:45 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thursday Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I came for the collapse. When should I check back? Thursday Maybe Friday. Anyone know what the time of concentration is for the watershed? |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:41:42 PM EDT
[#34]
It was not on my mind at the time...
But the hillside I snuck down must've been completely covered with poison oak. I have got that shit everywhere !!! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:42:18 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thursday Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I came for the collapse. When should I check back? Thursday I think Saturday |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:42:59 PM EDT
[#36]
Anyone have new pictures this morning showing supersack placement by the parking lot and riprap on the right side of the espillway?
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:43:01 PM EDT
[#37]
Looks like they need a permanent apron to a large culvert / bridge for the emergency spillway, since there is a road to the boat ramp. Parking lot needs to be a few feet higher so all water goes over the weir. After the road, allow it to use the channel already dug if it can.
Or, since it it the EMERGENCY spillway, and as such really shouldn't be used, fortify the front of it so that in the event it ever has to be used again, it allows for enough time to evacuate. IMO that's what it was there for in the first place. If they need an auxiliary, find another point on the shoreline and dig in an aux spillway, but I haven't looked at the map to see if there is another channel back to the river. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:43:15 PM EDT
[#38]
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It was TWO helicopters, not one. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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The single helicopter taking baggies of rocks reminds me of tryibg to dig an olympic sized pool with a stirring spoon. I fugured it would have been a fleet of heavy lifts. It was TWO helicopters, not one. Problem with getting the big heavies like the Sky Cranes and Chinooks their so exspensive they can't afford to have them sitting if their not in for inspection and maintainance, that said their working and those things work all over the world, they only start returning when their fire fighting contracts go into effect. I was talking with a Columbia Helicopters pilot a few years ago and asked him why they didn't fly Sky Cranes as well and he said their maintainance intensive and there are not many qualified pilots, which I noticed when their fighting fires you see them opened up and support crews looking at everything, and the fact that they sit as once the pilots hour out those things are not moving, then there is the cost. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:43:41 PM EDT
[#39]
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Today's kids would need a safe space if they saw a real blasting box. Neither of mine would. "Do it again! Do it again!"
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:44:05 PM EDT
[#40]
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Maybe Friday. Anyone know what the time of concentration is for the watershed? Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I came for the collapse. When should I check back? Thursday Maybe Friday. Anyone know what the time of concentration is for the watershed? It really depends on the snowfall elevation. If it high then alot of water like last week is coming down and the lag is probably 12 hours. The latest forecast that I have seen says it will be much lower snow and while that is great it also means more snow o the ground if we get another high elevation rain event. Either way this problem is with us for a minimum of 3-4 months and even long term years possibly |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:45:33 PM EDT
[#41]
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Maybe Friday. Anyone know what the time of concentration is for the watershed? Hold on a minute while I download the lidar data and do a raindrop analysis... 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:45:51 PM EDT
[#42]
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It was not on my mind at the time... But the hillside I snuck down must've been completely covered with poison oak. I have got that shit everywhere !!! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:46:15 PM EDT
[#43]
That boom pump has its work cut out for it.
I wonder what mix they're running through it? |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:46:46 PM EDT
[#44]
Not having any luck on finding the original borings so far.
For now here's a photo of the dam near the end of construction in 1967: You can clearly see the emergency spillway to the left of the main spillway and flume. A review of design manuals from that era indicates the structures i.e.: emergency spillway weir, main spillway, and flume may be supported on rock anchors. In addition it would not have been uncommon to pressure grout the rock to create a curtain wall below the upper control structures. 
FWIW: I owned a geotechnical construction company for 22 years. We did rock anchors and grouting for a living. Now I teach people how to do it. 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:47:04 PM EDT
[#45]
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Is the dam thing gonna fail? No |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:47:29 PM EDT
[#46]
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Good to hear. CA needs to be taken to task for all of its stupidity. Liberals in charge of infrastructure would be like having a preschool class running a war room. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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So I saw on Fox News that the federal goverment is demanding answers from the state as to how did it get to this point. I'd love to be in that meeting. Good to hear. CA needs to be taken to task for all of its stupidity. Liberals in charge of infrastructure would be like having a preschool class running a war room. I know, I'd like to hear their reasons, I mean excuses. They have a history of non compliance, little to any maintainance, and I'm sure there is another list we don't even know about, gonna be hard to blame the feds on this one. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:49:28 PM EDT
[#47]
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If there's an earthquake, the emergency spillway will be the least of your concerns. Liquifactoon of the earthen dam however would be a very real possibility. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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So if there is an uncontrolled release from a weakened espillway, it could be followed by a nice earthquake... Which could further damage the dam... Nice. I'm glad I live in WI! If there's an earthquake, the emergency spillway will be the least of your concerns. Liquifactoon of the earthen dam however would be a very real possibility. Not really a concern. The earthen dam is enormously massive, and even substantial movement from liquifaction would be shrugged off unless we're talking an unprecedented quake in the 7.5 + range, which seems outrageously outside the bounds of probability. The quake in '75 was 5.7. Its not going to blow the dam down, but it the seiche could be interesting if the water levels are at the level of the spill crest. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:50:45 PM EDT
[#48]
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It was not on my mind at the time... But the hillside I snuck down must've been completely covered with poison oak. I have got that shit everywhere !!! 
Calamine lotion is your new best friend... |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:51:34 PM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 2/14/2017 12:51:41 PM EDT
[#50]
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Just a general update for the Sacramento / Oroville area: 1. There was a 22 car derailment of a Union Pacific train in Elk Grove (suburban Sacramento) on Friday. UP states "flooded swamp-like conditions" likely a factor. 2. Hwy 50 in Kyburz will remain closed indefinitely due to mudslides. 3. Crews are working to stabilize a levee on the Mokelumne river that protects Tyler Island and eastern Walnut Grove. This is the shit sandwich that keeps on giving. Note: These items not directly associated with the Oroville Dam or Feather River, just all the water currently in the area. Its that drought Jerry Brown keeps talking about. |
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