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The e-spillway was untested. Now it is tested and the issues can now be resolved. I fully believe the water over the e-spillway was intentional, for this exact purpose. That is why they kept the spillway output so low to begin with. Once they thought there was a problem they bumped up the spillway output and 4 hours later the water stopped flowing over the e-spillway. View Quote I think everyone agrees the water over the E spillway was intentional. In hindsight it looks like a bad decision. One in a long string of bad decisions. |
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In 1997 inflows to the reservoir hit more than 331,000 cubic feet per second. The main spillway can dump 150,000 cubic feet per second. Apparently in 1997, they managed to dump 160,000 cubic feet per second down the main spillway. I don't know what synergy happened in 1997 to cause that much surplus inflow in such a short time, but for the present the incoming storm is supposed to be snow above 5,000'. If there is a 170,000 cubic feet per second surplus, that surplus would run over the e-weir until it either erodes the e-weir structure away, and/or displaces the entire weir/spillway gatehouse structure. That would open up that entire end of the dam complex. With a hole that big, water may back up to major levels on the main dam structure...but I'm still not buying that it would spill over the top of the main dam. The surplus, even at 330,000 cubic feet per second inflow, is only roughly twice the capacity of the main spillway. View Quote I don't think there is any possible way for the lake to overtop the dam. I found one weir calculator that recalculates the discharge coefficient for very high heads that showed it would take something like 2x what has ever been seen to raise the lake level high enough to top the dam. I think the weir would fail long before that could happen. I think the more realistic threat is water over the weir washing out or damaging the primary spillway. If that were to happen then perhaps you stand a chance of washing out the dam from the side. ETA: or just cutting itself a new gorge under the weir in fractured rock. |
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I don't think so. They bumped up the flow from the main spillway because of the threat of complete failure of the espillway, not because the testing was complete. They were trying to save the main spillway when they were reducing flow over it. The upside was that they discovered that the main spillway suffered less damage at the higher flow rate. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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The e-spillway was untested. Now it is tested and the issues can now be resolved. I fully believe the water over the e-spillway was intentional, for this exact purpose. That is why they kept the spillway output so low to begin with. Once they thought there was a problem they bumped up the spillway output and 4 hours later the water stopped flowing over the e-spillway. I don't think so. They bumped up the flow from the main spillway because of the threat of complete failure of the espillway, not because the testing was complete. They were trying to save the main spillway when they were reducing flow over it. The upside was that they discovered that the main spillway suffered less damage at the higher flow rate. I never said the testing was complete. Someone freaked out close to dark and they ramped up the spillway. Had they ramped up the spillway 4 hours earlier there never would have been a freak out. Even then they spillway has more capacity, so they never really believe the "catastrophic failure in 60 minutes" statement that they put out. The engineer that spoke that night said their main concern was not damaging the infrastructure, so letting it run over the e-spillway was intentional. The lies came from the "60 minutes until failure, water is eroded under the face of weir". |
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when will they actually get to see the damage to the spillway?
next drought/dry spell? |
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0 to 3000 foot temporary flight restriction to drones and aircraft, either so the power line guys before could pull lines and now blackhawks can drop rock, or if a conspiracy theorist so the public could not see how bad it is. View Quote The TFR started at 3000' over the weekend as they were doing the powerline work only. It was increased to 4500' when the rock lifters came on scene monday. TFR details at FAA The KCRA news chopper pilot was complaining monday morning about the increased altitude, I'm sure it decreases their picture quality going having to zoom that much further to see detail. |
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Exactly, what difference does it make if its the dam, spillway or esplliway? Same effect, downstream is hosed, lakeside hones and businesses are hosed, the Cali water supply is hosed, etc. View Quote Well... Emergency spillway = $ Spillway = $$$ Dam = $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Downstream = someone else's $$ |
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https://www.metabunk.org/attachments/20170213-164459-go0jl-jpg.24552/https://www.metabunk.org/attachments/20170213-164624-7u3k5-jpg.24553/ View Quote That looks like throwing a hotdog down a hallway. |
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I am amazed that someone hasn't gone over there with a drone yet. Would be amazing to fly it near the damaged spillway. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I'd love to find a current overhead shot of that work going on. there is a drone video from near where OP went that was up Friday, nice video |
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View Quote Well that's a little disturbing. |
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Finally a comparison worth making. Its private footage like OP's and people like this guy below who have taken the best footage, NOT thenews orgs....,.
This video was made at noon on the day they called evac: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEETWRXiFJs Skip about a minute in, and look at the area near the juncture of the big weir and little weir for lack of a better term. This video was made after the evac was announced same day about 4 hours later. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkz-F4PcaA No wonder they shit themselves. Look at how much that damage progressed up. |
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It being discussed doesn't make it so. The Oroville dam was one of the first key pieces built for the State Water Project. The purpose of the State Water Project was to capture water and deliver it south for irrigation, industrial use, and drinking water. Also to generate hydroelectric power as immense amounts of electrical power are needed for pumps etc throughout the system. And also providing flood control. View Quote You should try reading: Read all of it. https://www.scribd.com/document/339226431/Oroville-Dam-Motion-to-Intervene-of-Friends-of-the-River-Sierra-Club-and-South-Yuba-River-Citizens-League-filed-on-October-17-2005 |
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? View Quote they should be fine, that is a 600 foot long x 110 tall x100 or so deep chunk of concrete don't know, that hill is probably pretty tough maybe 860' final elevation Sure, the end one is unlikely to move |
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I think everyone agrees the water over the E spillway was intentional. In hindsight it looks like a bad decision. One in a long string of bad decisions. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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The e-spillway was untested. Now it is tested and the issues can now be resolved. I fully believe the water over the e-spillway was intentional, for this exact purpose. That is why they kept the spillway output so low to begin with. Once they thought there was a problem they bumped up the spillway output and 4 hours later the water stopped flowing over the e-spillway. I think everyone agrees the water over the E spillway was intentional. In hindsight it looks like a bad decision. One in a long string of bad decisions. Water over the e-spillway was a way to test it. Plus "look at all this environmental damage, we need more funds" would be an anticipated result from that. Going forward they will fix the whole thing properly now that it has been tested. Assuming they get on their knees and ask Uncle Trump for more money...while threatening to withhold all their federal tax dollars. I think the testing of e-spillway was a good decision. They didn't monitor it well enough and let it go on too long but it isn't like people have experience in doing that type of thing to know how to monitor it. A long list of bad decisions indeed. |
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Top pic looks to be a picture of a mountain side with well fractured basaltic rock. I assume we're back to "guess the rock" evaluation. I think he's onto something, but what's interesting is that (a) in the deep hole closest to the main spillway, there's a much more fractured lighter gray rock; and (b) in the other gouge closer to the parking lot there's a relatively solid piece of very white material almost like an intrusion / uplift in the area... So there's a real variety of materials on that ridge. And a lot of it is coming apart under what supposedly was a small fraction of the expected capacity of that emergency spill. View Quote A lot of that rock looks like greenstone to this son of a geologist. |
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It would have been interesting to see that emergency spillway being used to the full 350k capacity. It was only used at between 6-15k capacity when it all went to shit.
I'm not talking about the primary spillway (I'm referring to the uncontrolled emergency, or aux as they re-certified it to in 2005 to avoid reinforcing it) |
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? Add a zero to that. Half million acre feet + whatever the height above it is at the time. |
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View Quote Looks more like a reflection of the sun to me. |
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Stupid question time. Been trying to keep up on the thread, and that is a task in itself... The Emergency Spillway, Is it a controlled release or is it when the water hits XXX feet high, it rolls on over to the valley below? Sorry if it has been asked and answered prior.... View Quote Catching up myself, so sorry if already answered... The e-spill goes at 901 feet with no means of control other than increasing the main spillway to decrease height of lake. Inflow - generating (currently zero and for foreseeable future) - main spillway (currently 100k cfs) - e-spill (if pool level greater than zero) = accumulation (increase or decrease in pool height). |
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You should try reading: Read all of it. https://www.scribd.com/document/339226431/Oroville-Dam-Motion-to-Intervene-of-Friends-of-the-River-Sierra-Club-and-South-Yuba-River-Citizens-League-filed-on-October-17-2005 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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It being discussed doesn't make it so. The Oroville dam was one of the first key pieces built for the State Water Project. The purpose of the State Water Project was to capture water and deliver it south for irrigation, industrial use, and drinking water. Also to generate hydroelectric power as immense amounts of electrical power are needed for pumps etc throughout the system. And also providing flood control. You should try reading: Read all of it. https://www.scribd.com/document/339226431/Oroville-Dam-Motion-to-Intervene-of-Friends-of-the-River-Sierra-Club-and-South-Yuba-River-Citizens-League-filed-on-October-17-2005 Just a mild cautionary note. What you're linking (I pointed it out too earlier in the thread) is an advocacy document, a biased, pointed, one-sided viewpoint from an advocate seeking a specific result. It is not unbiased and does not try to, and its submitted by a group that generally opposes dams. Just don't treat it like an unbiased document. FYI, I've been trying to get hands on the early 2000s Yuba technical memorandum cited in there, as that would be more of an analytical document. Can't find that document anywhere on line so I've been reduced to calling in a favor with an old law school girlfriend. She didn't tell me to go fuck myself when she picked up, but its a reach whether she'll be able to get ahold of the document, though she's more local to the situation and (alas) leftists who probably have copies. |
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Ok where is that going? That can't be good. |
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Add a zero to that. Half million acre feet + whatever the height above it is at the time. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? Add a zero to that. Half million acre feet + whatever the height above it is at the time. |
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They can only use the spillway once the lake is up to the bottom of the gates, there seems to be some question about the elevation but it's definitely between 811' and 850' The spillway failed more or less the first time they loaded it hard in the last several years, if I've read the charts right the lake never got high enough to put any significant flow through the spillway during the drought. It's all on their half-assed spillway repair that seems to have missed that there was a void forming under the cracks they just patched over. The had a perfect opportunity to repair that during the drought and failed to do so. View Quote They should have been running the power house at capacity 24/7 since mid December. Instead, they wanted the water level to go up, knowing it would anyway. When bad management meets bad maintenance and hopes meet reality, we see Catastrophe, which this will be. NorCal is fucked before July. Lake Shasta is currently flooding towns trying to get their storage down below 98% since that snow hasn't melted and there's a lot of rain on the way. There is NO REASON this should be a problem. Nature hasn't done anything it hadn't done prior to this, mismanagement and maintenance fucked it. |
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In 1997 inflows to the reservoir hit more than 331,000 cubic feet per second. The main spillway can dump 150,000 cubic feet per second. Apparently in 1997, they managed to dump 160,000 cubic feet per second down the main spillway. I don't know what synergy happened in 1997 to cause that much surplus inflow in such a short time, but for the present the incoming storm is supposed to be snow above 5,000'. If there is a 170,000 cubic feet per second surplus, that surplus would run over the e-weir until it either erodes the e-weir structure away, and/or displaces the entire weir/spillway gatehouse structure. That would open up that entire end of the dam complex. With a hole that big, water may back up to major levels on the main dam structure...but I'm still not buying that it would spill over the top of the main dam. The surplus, even at 330,000 cubic feet per second inflow, is only roughly twice the capacity of the main spillway. View Quote What kind of Derp is that? |
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A lot of that rock looks like greenstone to this son of a geologist. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Top pic looks to be a picture of a mountain side with well fractured basaltic rock. I assume we're back to "guess the rock" evaluation. I think he's onto something, but what's interesting is that (a) in the deep hole closest to the main spillway, there's a much more fractured lighter gray rock; and (b) in the other gouge closer to the parking lot there's a relatively solid piece of very white material almost like an intrusion / uplift in the area... So there's a real variety of materials on that ridge. And a lot of it is coming apart under what supposedly was a small fraction of the expected capacity of that emergency spill. A lot of that rock looks like greenstone to this son of a geologist. Well that's a "schisty" thing to say. I sure hope not. I've got a piece of that in the garage from a hike up by an old mine. You can smack two pieces together and wind up with 8 fragments. |
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The Espill is on top of the hill. Even DWR is using 30 ft as the figure of lake drop. Say they reinforce the Espill and it holds perfectly and the water keeps climbing to the top of the dam, unlikely yes,but this dam isn't designed to be anywhere near this full. I have been in here since the beginning and am aware of the failure areas. Here, Oroville, and others I have posted in this thread like Teton. The main danger with any earthen dam is overtopping. It will fail if you allow flow over the top. Yes they can fail other ways such as leakage thru or underneath but overflow is a guaranteed fail. View Quote However in order to over top, it would need the incoming water to exceed the outgoing water through the spillway, and over the weir A 1700ft long weir with 30ft of head can pass appx 86k cfs. Downstream of it, wouldn't like to guess. So if we assume the primary spillway can take 150k cfs and the emergency spillway 86k, that means the incoming COULD THEORETICALY get as high as 236k without it getting high enough to over top. That also doesn't take account of the main spillway probably being capable of taking way more than 150k. |
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They should have been running the power house at capacity 24/7 since mid December. Instead, they wanted the water level to go up, knowing it would anyway. When bad management meets bad maintenance and hopes meet reality, we see Catastrophe, which this will be. NorCal is fucked before July. Lake Shasta is currently flooding towns trying to get their storage down below 98% since that snow hasn't melted and there's a lot of rain on the way. There is NO REASON this should be a problem. Nature hasn't done anything it hadn't done prior to this, mismanagement and maintenance fucked it. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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They can only use the spillway once the lake is up to the bottom of the gates, there seems to be some question about the elevation but it's definitely between 811' and 850' The spillway failed more or less the first time they loaded it hard in the last several years, if I've read the charts right the lake never got high enough to put any significant flow through the spillway during the drought. It's all on their half-assed spillway repair that seems to have missed that there was a void forming under the cracks they just patched over. The had a perfect opportunity to repair that during the drought and failed to do so. They should have been running the power house at capacity 24/7 since mid December. Instead, they wanted the water level to go up, knowing it would anyway. When bad management meets bad maintenance and hopes meet reality, we see Catastrophe, which this will be. NorCal is fucked before July. Lake Shasta is currently flooding towns trying to get their storage down below 98% since that snow hasn't melted and there's a lot of rain on the way. There is NO REASON this should be a problem. Nature hasn't done anything it hadn't done prior to this, mismanagement and maintenance fucked it. I've been looking at the levels, and I think you're right. These fucking idiots were so stunned/shocked/tunnel visioned about the drought years that they didn't do releases all along as they ought to have for the flood management function. They were too worried about not having enough water despite all the evidence that they would have more than they could ever use or hold. IN other words, they neckbearded the fucking operation of these dams. |
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If I lived in Oroville I would never go back ever. Maybe for a snatch and grab of my stuff but no overnight stays.
The damn might survive in some reduced capacity but that town is FUBAR. When the choice is flood the town or lose the dam and Sacramento what do you think Moonbeam will do? If the inflows increase to 300,000cfs and they increase outflow to match would the water clear the river and land on the far bank? |
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when will they actually get to see the damage to the spillway? next drought/dry spell? View Quote They could turn it off right now and look at it, but that guarantees the e-spill will be over-topped. If there's a couple week lull in the pacific storms coming in or after rain/snow melt season ends sometime this summer is most likely. |
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one drone shot down so far that we heard, flight restrictions under 3k ft AGL so no the best idea there is a drone video from near where OP went that was up Friday, nice video View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I'd love to find a current overhead shot of that work going on. there is a drone video from near where OP went that was up Friday, nice video OP joked about that earlier but it was a joke. Did one really get shot down? |
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I never said the testing was complete. Someone freaked out close to dark and they ramped up the spillway. Had they ramped up the spillway 4 hours earlier there never would have been a freak out. Even then they spillway has more capacity, so they never really believe the "catastrophic failure in 60 minutes" statement that they put out. The engineer that spoke that night said their main concern was not damaging the infrastructure, so letting it run over the e-spillway was intentional. The lies came from the "60 minutes until failure, water is eroded under the face of weir". View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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The e-spillway was untested. Now it is tested and the issues can now be resolved. I fully believe the water over the e-spillway was intentional, for this exact purpose. That is why they kept the spillway output so low to begin with. Once they thought there was a problem they bumped up the spillway output and 4 hours later the water stopped flowing over the e-spillway. I don't think so. They bumped up the flow from the main spillway because of the threat of complete failure of the espillway, not because the testing was complete. They were trying to save the main spillway when they were reducing flow over it. The upside was that they discovered that the main spillway suffered less damage at the higher flow rate. I never said the testing was complete. Someone freaked out close to dark and they ramped up the spillway. Had they ramped up the spillway 4 hours earlier there never would have been a freak out. Even then they spillway has more capacity, so they never really believe the "catastrophic failure in 60 minutes" statement that they put out. The engineer that spoke that night said their main concern was not damaging the infrastructure, so letting it run over the e-spillway was intentional. The lies came from the "60 minutes until failure, water is eroded under the face of weir". What I'm saying is that the main spillway flow was reduced to minimize damage to it from erosion. At that time, I don't recall hearing anything about testing the espillway. When the erosion below and around the espillway looked like it would compromise or undercut it, they freaked out thinking failure was imminent and opened up the main spillway to take pressure off the espillway. That's when the Sheriff ordered the evacuation. Not damaging the infrastructure was a reference to the fear that the main spillway would be undercut all the way to the gates if they kept up the high flow rate. Hours after opening up the main spillway more, they discovered that erosion was not as rapid when the flow rate was higher. But their initial fear was always that increased flow would destroy the main spillway and possibly compromise the dam. If you'll recall, there was a lot of attention to the laydown area and road to the right of the main spillway. |
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They should have been running the power house at capacity 24/7 since mid December. Instead, they wanted the water level to go up, knowing it would anyway. When bad management meets bad maintenance and hopes meet reality, we see Catastrophe, which this will be. NorCal is fucked before July. Lake Shasta is currently flooding towns trying to get their storage down below 98% since that snow hasn't melted and there's a lot of rain on the way. There is NO REASON this should be a problem. Nature hasn't done anything it hadn't done prior to this, mismanagement and maintenance fucked it. View Quote Basically this. No reason they should find themselves in this position when balancing between flood control and storage. They leaned towards storage as if they were in a drought and stepped on their dick hard. |
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? Add a zero to that. Half million acre feet + whatever the height above it is at the time. Nah, I think 500,000 ac is about right. The surface area is a bit over 15,000 acres, multiply that by 30 feet, assuming that is the lowest spot on the weir and you come close to 500,000 acre/feet. The entire capacity of the dam is 3,500,000 acre feet. |
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Huge favor. Can one or 2 of you download all my videos in case they get scrubbed? Just for long term storage. I'll do it as well this pm. The coverup will start soon if not already OP knows things. Leave it at that and honor his request. |
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If I lived in Oroville I would never go back ever. Maybe for a snatch and grab of my stuff but no overnight stays. The damn might survive in some reduced capacity but that town is FUBAR. When the choice is flood the mostly conservative town or lose the dam and liberal Sacramento what do you think Moonbeam will do? If the inflows increase to 300,000cfs and they increase outflow to match would the water clear the river and land on the far bank? View Quote Does moonbeam have the actual say or does the military override his authority? Also fixed it for you. |
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I think that is only sunlight glinting off the water, but I could be wrong. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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Here's some tasty fries for your kid. Dam refugees http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/02/14/14/3D3154F700000578-4221808-Sharing_At_the_Gurdwara_Sahib_Sikh_Temple_in-m-15_1487081948054.jpg View Quote Did they run out of gloves? And tongs? |
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when will they actually get to see the damage to the spillway? next drought/dry spell? View Quote When that will be is anybody's guess. |
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I'm guessing as soon as the lake level is low enough that they can close the spillway gates long enough to take a look...without running the risk of letting too much inflow back up in the lake. When that will be is anybody's guess. View Quote |
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Here's some tasty fries for your kid. Dam refugees http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/02/14/14/3D3154F700000578-4221808-Sharing_At_the_Gurdwara_Sahib_Sikh_Temple_in-m-15_1487081948054.jpg View Quote sihks love freedom and hate ropers |
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The e-spillway was untested. Now it is tested and the issues can now be resolved. I fully believe the water over the e-spillway was intentional, for this exact purpose. That is why they kept the spillway output so low to begin with. Once they thought there was a problem they bumped up the spillway output and 4 hours later the water stopped flowing over the e-spillway. View Quote There seem to be two areas they were concerned about. The glory hole at the turn in the road and erosion cleft that shed some rather large pieces of rock in front of the weir on the west high side. If rock starts spalling off at the base of the weir its just a matter of time before the weir tips forward and falls in. It must have been a bit unnerving seeing the erosion move steadily towards the weir. They are going to have to use the E spillway before June. There is going to be a boatload of water coming in. Californians are very good at forgetting how droughts end. History of where they live seems to escape them. I lived in Cali in 86/87. They had flooding in places that "never" flood over on the coast. Had a big slide in the Santa Cruz Mountains that carried off people's houses. The amounts of water in the storms to come are not going to get smaller. They're going to get their climate change but man is going to have nothing to do with it. |
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http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/02/14/16/3D3525A400000578-4221808-image-a-33_1487088769117.jpg http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/02/14/16/3D35257D00000578-4221808-image-a-37_1487088785302.jpghttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/02/14/16/3D35256400000578-4221808-image-a-40_1487088804240.jpghttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/02/14/16/3D35256C00000578-4221808-image-a-42_1487088812218.jpg View Quote Just last night my new wife (from Taiwan) asked me if I trust our government. I merely chuckled. |
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Just started watching, but this looks like they're working in earnest in the main e-spill area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux9MSHoVL2g View Quote Interesting that they've restored vehicle access to the catch basin and are bringing in mining truck loads of rock. I'm guessing the plan is to fill the washouts with rock and possibly to line the front edge of the weir with rock as well. I wonder will they be able to concrete all that in place before the rains come? |
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