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Just started watching, but this looks like they're working in earnest in the main e-spill area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux9MSHoVL2g View Quote |
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No worries... this thread has been moving faster than any Arf thread that I remember over the past 14 years. At least any thread that I participated in. It's kind of like the ultimate vehicle pile-up. We're all driving by slowly, gawking, Monday morning quarterbacking, and in total awe of the forces involved. View Quote 2016 Election Both moved faster. |
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Looks like they are down there clearing the river. http://ww4.hdnux.com/photos/57/11/57/12360651/7/1024x1024.jpg View Quote Good. I've been wondering if it wasn't a mistake investing so much effort into shoring up the E-spill rather than dredging the river and getting the turbines running again to contribute a steady flow. I figured they knew they couldn't get that done before the next crisis but it's a good sign they're working on it. |
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Nah, all the need to do is build a few hundred desal plants and a hundred or so nuke plants to run them easy peasy View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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When the Oroville dam was being proposed, the powers in SoCal opposed it because they thought their rights to the Colorado river water would be taken away. Now they get water from both. It might be back to almost exclusively Colorado river water if there's a major breach in any of the structure. Nah, all the need to do is build a few hundred desal plants and a hundred or so nuke plants to run them easy peasy It can do about 7% of San Diego County water needs I believe. It's co-located with a huge NG electrical generator plant. The environmentalists and NIMBYs opposed it all the way. Ruins natural habitat, ruins sea life, blocks the ocean view....... They continually push for the adjoining electrical plant to close and might win. They finally got their wish on closing the nuke plant just up the road when the operators totally fucked up replacing the giant steam turbines. We are now paying for that fiasco in our electric bills. |
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If they lose the dam it is several orders of magnitude worse than losing the Espill. The dam would scour the Feather basin bare and the wall of water would flood Sacramento. View Quote Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? |
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Good video of what is going on... I was expecting much more activity there... say 2X to 5X as many trucks/equipment. I'd bet Parker Schnabel would have more stuff there if he was in charge View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Just started watching, but this looks like they're working in earnest in the main e-spill area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux9MSHoVL2g Couple observations: Looks like they set up lights along the main spillway last night. They're watching it closely. Worried? The scale of the thing really comes through with those vehicles there. Frankly, looks like trying to patch a swimming pool with a cup of gravel... they've been busting ass for days moving material and there's just not that much new material there to work with. Good video of what is going on... I was expecting much more activity there... say 2X to 5X as many trucks/equipment. I'd bet Parker Schnabel would have more stuff there if he was in charge Tony Beets on the other hand would have that dam either fixed or completely smashed to rubble within 3 days though |
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Huge favor.
Can one or 2 of you download all my videos in case they get scrubbed? Just for long term storage. I'll do it as well this pm. The coverup will start soon if not already |
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I don't know, but I've read that the dam proper is some 20' taller than the e-weir. The dam itself will never be overtopped. Given that the dam proper and the spillway gatehouse share a road on top and the gatehouse and dam are the same height, the picture bellow should illustrate the fact that the e-weir is somewhat lower. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Oroville_dam.jpg View Quote |
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I am amazed that someone hasn't gone over there with a drone yet. Would be amazing to fly it near the damaged spillway. View Quote 0 to 3000 foot temporary flight restriction to drones and aircraft, either so the power line guys before could pull lines and now blackhawks can drop rock, or if a conspiracy theorist so the public could not see how bad it is. |
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There is 21' from the top of the weir to the top of the dam. So that weir is something like 60' high at that point. There is concrete weir structure all the way to the far side of the parking lot. It's not as substantial as the weir section shown here. Somewhere out there there is a photograph that clearly shows it, I just can't seem to find it. The drawings of the dam showed it and showed the 2 different sections. It does not show how it is anchored or even if it is anchored to the rock. View Quote After seeing the google link above showing how far it extends past the parking lot, I'm curious if it's all the same construction out to it's end and mostly buried in the ground. |
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Did you see all of those cracks? All of that side of the mountain will end up in the ocean if the water is high enough to flow over the Espillway and there is a breach. They know that and that is why they are not going to let any more water go over that spillway. None. Not a drop. Watch and see. They will open the gates wide-open and lat the chips fall where they may before throttling that flow back again. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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earthen dams will fail from over topping because you create an erosion path that accelerates as it erodes. If the weir were to let loose - that would be unlikely to happen because you have primarily bedrock below it. You'd have a huge outpouring of water to the level of failure (which would be really bad downstream) but if the rock under the weir is reasonably solid it would stop at that point. If the ground between the primary spillway and the end of the parking lot is fill, rather than natural rock, then it would carve out a path and keep draining the reservoir until it did hit rock. The few drawings that have cropped up seem to indicate the bottom of the weir is to be on rock. The geologists / rock guys here will have to comment on the ability of the fractured surface rock shown to erode slowly enough to prevent catastrophic failure of the rock itself. Did you see all of those cracks? All of that side of the mountain will end up in the ocean if the water is high enough to flow over the Espillway and there is a breach. They know that and that is why they are not going to let any more water go over that spillway. None. Not a drop. Watch and see. They will open the gates wide-open and lat the chips fall where they may before throttling that flow back again. |
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@ProFryan IM me this links and I will do that for you View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Huge favor. Can one or 2 of you download all my videos in case they get scrubbed? Just for long term storage. I'll do it as well this pm. The coverup will start soon if not already @ProFryan IM me this links and I will do that for you Sorry if I am a little off the back, but cover up of what? |
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Just started watching, but this looks like they're working in earnest in the main e-spill area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux9MSHoVL2g View Quote Look at the backside of that E-spillway it looks like some of the concrete has slipped off. |
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Not having any luck on finding the original borings so far. For now here's a photo of the dam near the end of construction in 1967: You can clearly see the emergency spillway to the left of the main spillway and flume. A review of design manuals from that era indicates the structures i.e.: emergency spillway weir, main spillway, and flume may be supported on rock anchors. In addition it would not have been uncommon to pressure grout the rock to create a curtain wall below the upper control structures. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/11755/IMG-0510-146572.png FWIW: I owned a geotechnical construction company for 22 years. We did rock anchors and grouting for a living. Now I teach people how to do it. View Quote The end of the weir with a footing, is the parking lot. The red dots bracket where the "curb" wall is alongside the parking lot. Note the lack of footing there. It doesn't look like they dug down very far to put that thing in. No way should they have been fooling around with the emergency spillway, and no way should it be used again. Attached File |
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They have made amazing progress since last night. Would like to see an overhead shot and see how much of the huge hole between the main spillway and espillway they have filled in.
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The crumby, low res images I saw of the weir, indicated it was set on bedrock with two 'keys' on it's bottom fitting into grooves cut in the bedrock. After seeing the google link above showing how far it extends past the parking lot, I'm curious if it's all the same construction out to it's end and mostly buried in the ground. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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There is 21' from the top of the weir to the top of the dam. So that weir is something like 60' high at that point. There is concrete weir structure all the way to the far side of the parking lot. It's not as substantial as the weir section shown here. Somewhere out there there is a photograph that clearly shows it, I just can't seem to find it. The drawings of the dam showed it and showed the 2 different sections. It does not show how it is anchored or even if it is anchored to the rock. After seeing the google link above showing how far it extends past the parking lot, I'm curious if it's all the same construction out to it's end and mostly buried in the ground. It's a different section. Top maintains elevation and profile, but underground looks more like a rectangular block than a weir. No idea how deep it is. |
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here's a larger pic with the story behind it <p style="text-align:left"></p> <a href="http://www.abc10.com/news/local/river-valve-damaged-in-2009-could-have-been-fourth-way-to-release-excess-water/408086236?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank"> River valve damaged in 2009 could have been fourth way to release excess water</a> <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4l3-E8VMAApR-b.jpg" target="_blank"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4l3-E8VMAApR-b.jpg" target="_blank">https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4l3-E8VMAApR-b.jpg</a></a> View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I found a report that says the river valve outlet was partially repaired in 2014, and tested in 2014 - 2015 up to half capacity. Since the river valve uses the same tunnels as the plant, they can not open it without further flooding to the plant due to the debri at the end of the spillway backing up the water. Just ran across this for a diagram of power plant tunnels to give a visual of the setup. <a href="https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/106468/Scan-Pic0014-1487036675831-8508251-ver1-146524.JPG" target="_blank">https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/106468/Scan-Pic0014-1487036675831-8508251-ver1-146524.JPG</a> here's a larger pic with the story behind it <p style="text-align:left"></p> <a href="http://www.abc10.com/news/local/river-valve-damaged-in-2009-could-have-been-fourth-way-to-release-excess-water/408086236?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank"> River valve damaged in 2009 could have been fourth way to release excess water</a> <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4l3-E8VMAApR-b.jpg" target="_blank"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4l3-E8VMAApR-b.jpg" target="_blank">https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4l3-E8VMAApR-b.jpg</a></a> According to this, it was repaired in 2014: http://www.nwhydro.org/wp-content/uploads/events_committees/Docs/2015_Annual_Conference_Presentations/04-Tuesday/4-Anderson.pdf |
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It was always a water storage dam from its inception along with hydroelectric generation and flood control. Where did you get the idea it was only built for flood control? View Quote They haven't run the net flow negative this year, even though they were aware of double snowpack. Roughly, the 65% to 70% mark is where pre-melt conditions should be (top 150'). They've been pushing it at 80% before considering opening the spillway, regulating the top 50 feet. That is why they are treating it as storage instead of flood control. |
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Did you see all of those cracks? All of that side of the mountain will end up in the ocean if the water is high enough to flow over the Espillway and there is a breach. They know that and that is why they are not going to let any more water go over that spillway. None. Not a drop. Watch and see. They will open the gates wide-open and lat the chips fall where they may before throttling that flow back again. View Quote My thoughts as well. No use of e-spillway unless main spillway fails If that happens the whole show is out of their hands. |
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I am amazed that someone hasn't gone over there with a drone yet. Would be amazing to fly it near the damaged spillway. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I'd love to find a current overhead shot of that work going on. Pretty sure it's restricted airspace now. Watched a video last night that was shot sometime over the weekend. Pilot said he was hoping to get in before they closed it off. Could be FOS though |
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Look at the backside of that E-spillway it looks like some of the concrete has slipped off. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Just started watching, but this looks like they're working in earnest in the main e-spill area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux9MSHoVL2g Look at the backside of that E-spillway it looks like some of the concrete has slipped off. Not sure what you're seeing, but I doubt it. There's a shrub on the right side that can give an illusion of a discontinuity in the weir surface. There's also the fence to the left as you're looking at it. Question for the erosion experts: I somehow think that fence is a relatively new addition to the dam, maybe post 911. I could be wrong. But wouldn't that fence post create turbulence that the shape of the weir is basically designed to guard against? |
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I'm buying a plane ticket and gold mining equipment, Going To Be Rich !!!!
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? View Quote If the espil fails most of the lake will drain in very quick fashion. The water would quickly erode under the concrete weir and that's all she wrote. Best guesses are they thought that was about to happen and hence the evacuation. |
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? View Quote |
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? View Quote I don't think anyone knows. It would be bad. The amount of water that would pour through the breach would cut deep into any fractured rock and OP has heard there's seven big fractures under the weir. Probably 100' drop in the reservoir level, assuming there's solid bedrock somewhere underneath it. |
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Have you seen how much air traffic is over that area now? That would be incredibly life threatening dangerous. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I am amazed that someone hasn't gone over there with a drone yet. Would be amazing to fly it near the damaged spillway. Have you seen how much air traffic is over that area now? That would be incredibly life threatening dangerous. 0 to 3000 foot temporary flight restriction to drones and aircraft, either so the power line guys before could pull lines and now blackhawks can drop rock, or if a conspiracy theorist so the public could not see how bad it is. |
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Pretty sure it's restricted airspace now. Watched a video last night that was shot sometime over the weekend. Pilot said he was hoping to get in before they closed it off. Could be FOS though View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I'd love to find a current overhead shot of that work going on. Pretty sure it's restricted airspace now. Watched a video last night that was shot sometime over the weekend. Pilot said he was hoping to get in before they closed it off. Could be FOS though 0 to 3000 foot temporary flight restriction to drones and aircraft, either so the power line guys before could pull lines and now blackhawks can drop rock, or if a conspiracy theorist so the public could not see how bad it is. |
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No way should they have been fooling around with the emergency spillway, and no way should it be used again. View Quote |
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For poison oak & poison ivy.....run very hot water over the affected area....as hot as you can stand without burning yourself. This will release histamines, and will feel intense until you stop. Pat skin dry, and enjoy the relief for about 6 hours, then repete. You're welcome. View Quote To clarify Pre-rash = cold Rash = hot |
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I think your'e right, when trillions of gallons wash away homes and infrastructure the people will be comforted by knowing the dam didn't break. https://www.ar15.com/images/smilies/smiley_smartass.gif View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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What do you think? So do you understand the difference between the weir and the dam now? And having dealt with flooding where decisions had to be made between shitty and shittier alternatives, I understand the difference between the failure of a 30-40' weir and the failure of a 770' tall dam. One is magnitudes of order worse than the other. |
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they will have no control of water going over the Espill and they know it, the input can easily outpace the spillway View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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earthen dams will fail from over topping because you create an erosion path that accelerates as it erodes. If the weir were to let loose - that would be unlikely to happen because you have primarily bedrock below it. You'd have a huge outpouring of water to the level of failure (which would be really bad downstream) but if the rock under the weir is reasonably solid it would stop at that point. If the ground between the primary spillway and the end of the parking lot is fill, rather than natural rock, then it would carve out a path and keep draining the reservoir until it did hit rock. The few drawings that have cropped up seem to indicate the bottom of the weir is to be on rock. The geologists / rock guys here will have to comment on the ability of the fractured surface rock shown to erode slowly enough to prevent catastrophic failure of the rock itself. Did you see all of those cracks? All of that side of the mountain will end up in the ocean if the water is high enough to flow over the Espillway and there is a breach. They know that and that is why they are not going to let any more water go over that spillway. None. Not a drop. Watch and see. They will open the gates wide-open and lat the chips fall where they may before throttling that flow back again. This. What they're doing now, before the next big inflow rush, is desperately trying to shore up the espill for when the water comes back up to it and over. If that espill weir lets go not only will there be extreme flooding in Oroville and the surrounding area, but that weir and everything below it is going to clog up the river. Then what? Dumb fucks should have kept the main spill maxed from the beginning, just like the former DWR guy said early on. Fuck, this next storm will not be kind. Couple that with the snow pack melt and the next month or two will be interesting. The residents of Oroville won't be moving back in anytime soon. |
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We finally got one going here next door in Carlsbad. It's the largest desal plant in the US. It can do about 7% of San Diego County water needs I believe. It's co-located with a huge NG electrical generator plant. The environmentalists and NIMBYs opposed it all the way. Ruins natural habitat, ruins sea life, blocks the ocean view....... They continually push for the adjoining electrical plant to close and might win. They finally got their wish on closing the nuke plant just up the road when the operators totally fucked up replacing the giant steam turbines. We are now paying for that fiasco in our electric bills. View Quote Points back to my comment about libs being total contrarians. They oppose ANY technology (except maybe their iPhones) and want mankind to be at neanderthal levels... or cease to exist altogether. Everything they do and stand-for is just so anti-instinctive (anti-survival)... it's just so damn suicidal to think like liberals do. They call themselves progressives. "Progress"??? They should be honest about at least ONE thing in their lives and refer to themselves as REGRESSIVE. |
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Does anyone really know how much water escapes if the E spillway breaches? They've been quoting 30ft, yet the weir section appears at least 60ft tall. To my untrained eye it seems plausible that the main spillway gates would be in great jeopardy. At what level will the bedrock hold? Can any section of the weir hold if there is a break? View Quote The next three questions are anybody's guess. I don't think anyone here or working at the dam knows the answer. |
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View Quote not liking that. hopefully just voids from years of drought filing and adjusting - not actual flow through the rock strata. |
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The e-spillway was untested. Now it is tested and the issues can now be resolved. I fully believe the water over the e-spillway was intentional, for this exact purpose. That is why they kept the spillway output so low to begin with. Once they thought there was a problem they bumped up the spillway output and 4 hours later the water stopped flowing over the e-spillway. View Quote I don't think so. They bumped up the flow from the main spillway because of the threat of complete failure of the espillway, not because the testing was complete. They were trying to save the main spillway when they were reducing flow over it. The upside was that they discovered that the main spillway suffered less damage at the higher flow rate. |
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that shows they have done a ton of work, they have moved all the soil from the first basin to the parking lot View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Just started watching, but this looks like they're working in earnest in the main e-spill area: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux9MSHoVL2g I don't get what you're saying. Moved the soil from where? |
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they will have no control of water going over the Espill and they know it, the input can easily outpace the spillway View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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earthen dams will fail from over topping because you create an erosion path that accelerates as it erodes. If the weir were to let loose - that would be unlikely to happen because you have primarily bedrock below it. You'd have a huge outpouring of water to the level of failure (which would be really bad downstream) but if the rock under the weir is reasonably solid it would stop at that point. If the ground between the primary spillway and the end of the parking lot is fill, rather than natural rock, then it would carve out a path and keep draining the reservoir until it did hit rock. The few drawings that have cropped up seem to indicate the bottom of the weir is to be on rock. The geologists / rock guys here will have to comment on the ability of the fractured surface rock shown to erode slowly enough to prevent catastrophic failure of the rock itself. They know that and that is why they are not going to let any more water go over that spillway. None. Not a drop. Watch and see. They will open the gates wide-open and lat the chips fall where they may before throttling that flow back again. If there is a 170,000 cubic feet per second surplus, that surplus would run over the e-weir until it either erodes the e-weir structure away, and/or displaces the entire weir/spillway gatehouse structure. That would open up that entire end of the dam complex. With a hole that big, water may back up to major levels on the main dam structure...but I'm still not buying that it would spill over the top of the main dam. The surplus, even at 330,000 cubic feet per second inflow, is only roughly twice the capacity of the main spillway. |
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They haven't run the net flow negative this year, even though they were aware of double snowpack. Roughly, the 65% to 70% mark is where pre-melt conditions should be (top 150'). They've been pushing it at 80% before considering opening the spillway, regulating the top 50 feet. That is why they are treating it as storage instead of flood control. View Quote They can only use the spillway once the lake is up to the bottom of the gates, there seems to be some question about the elevation but it's definitely between 811' and 850' The spillway failed more or less the first time they loaded it hard in the last several years, if I've read the charts right the lake never got high enough to put any significant flow through the spillway during the drought. It's all on their half-assed spillway repair that seems to have missed that there was a void forming under the cracks they just patched over. The had a perfect opportunity to repair that during the drought and failed to do so. |
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View Quote Ok where is that going? |
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With ~98k CCFS outflow, its dropping at about 3.85 feet per 12hrs. Looks like they only have 36hrs before the next big storm. That's not going to be good. View Quote As long as they get less than 98k in they should be fine... As long as nothing breaks, or it doesn't cause downstream to over top, or... or... |
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Ok where is that going? I'm wondering if it's Swiss cheese underneath which may have contributed to the dramatic concrete failure in the spillway a few days back. |
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