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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:03:32 AM EDT
[#1]
I'll jump in on page 211... as an engineer for the company with all that yellow equipment...
That is some glorious work being done by our products. Thank you all for all the awesome photos and information. I've shared numerous photos/quotes from this thread at work. May God be with everyone working at the dam. Be safe! |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:11:15 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:12:34 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Back on the 11th I put out a bet of 5 Pmags. threedogs took it. Well it seems to be a tossup as to bedrock and shitrock. So we've decided to call it a draw. But there has to be a winner. So I've decided to award two people in this thread Gold Memberships. They can be anyone but shit posters or Oregon Duck fans. 
Master_of_Orion will be the decider of winners. (so you can bitch at him) 
Ed How bout a pmag 
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:15:27 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The second photo could you imagine if the whole thing let loose? Just topple the mountains It's a Cubic Mile of water A Cubic Mile of water. Man's go no business playing with that. Not with a single life downhill at least. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:15:28 AM EDT
[#5]
Book of Dam 2 - Post 1975 Earthquake analysis with schematics and lots of structural descriptions and stress abilities.
@ProFryan : What is the status on the cofferdam between the spillway and substation? Doesn't appear any progress has been made, I'd have thought it would have been a higher priority, but later photos don't even show equipment in the area, other than the barge assembly. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:24:18 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Book of Dam 2 - Post 1975 Earthquake analysis with schematics and lots of structural descriptions and stress abilities. @ProFryan : What is the status on the cofferdam between the spillway and substation? Doesn't appear any progress has been made, I'd have thought it would have been a higher priority, but later photos don't even show equipment in the area, other than the barge assembly. Leme shake the grapes and see what shakes out. 1. Every organization is planning on this thing failing before summer. 2. If it doesnt fail, 2 things will be mandatory: 2.a, main spillway stays functional 2.b, no megastorm. ( more than ~7 days of 1 inch a day plus 5 inches on any random day) 3. ( DWR cant pre fuck any further bits of this) ( pre fuck is a propriatary term I created in refrence to a previous Boss of mine who would hand me projects, pre fucked) |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:28:35 AM EDT
[#7]
Trackhoe on a barge, floating beneath the tallest dam in America, digging the broken remains of a very large spillway.
Lake is full, it's raining and the whole facility is governed and ran by what appears to be idiots. Wonder what that pays per hour? |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:30:55 AM EDT
[#8]
I missed a few days (75 pages or so). It looks like things are a bit less intense, though still jacked up.
did they let the people back into town? did anyone post a link to the WSJ articles? There was a front page picture, I think an accompanying article a few pages in, and a write up from the editorial board in the back of the front section. I think maybe Wednesday's paper. I can dig out links if it hasn't been posted yet. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:32:20 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Leme shake the grapes and see what shakes out.1. Every organization is planning on this thing failing before summer. 2. If it doesnt fail, 2 things will be mandatory: 2.a, main spillway stays functional 2.b, no megastorm. ( more than ~7 days of 1 inch a day plus 5 inches on any random day) 3. ( DWR cant pre fuck any further bits of this) ( pre fuck is a propriatary term I created in refrence to a previous Boss of mine who would hand me projects, pre fucked) That sure shows a heap of optimism! Do they have a poll on when it fails? |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:34:03 AM EDT
[#10]
857.49
inflow back up to 45k |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:34:34 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
857.49 inflow back up to 45k |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:35:35 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trackhoe on a barge, floating beneath the tallest dam in America, digging the broken remains of a very large spillway. Lake is full, it's raining and the whole facility is governed and ran by what appears to be idiots. Wonder what that pays per hour? I wouldn't do it for less than $10K an hour.
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:35:53 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trackhoe on a barge, floating beneath the tallest dam in America, digging the broken remains of a very large spillway. Lake is full, it's raining and the whole facility is governed and ran by what appears to be idiots. Wonder what that pays per hour? A Lot. I'd have my pfd on. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:37:25 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That sure shows a heap of optimism! Do they have a poll on when it fails? Earlier I predicted that page 333 will hold that event. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:37:38 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
A Lot. I'd have my pfd on. WTF? Why don't they go back to calling them Life Jackets. Maybe I need to bring that up with the Donald.... 
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:40:28 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trackhoe on a barge, floating beneath the tallest dam in America, digging the broken remains of a very large spillway. Lake is full, it's raining and the whole facility is governed and ran by what appears to be idiots. Wonder what that pays per hour? Probably some sort of quadruple hazard pay I would imagine. Union? Right? They finally realized how fucked they are and are desperate to get the turbines flowing so they can drain the whole dam. I wonder how long they will continue to listen to whoever is in there told you so-ing the shit out of them right now. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:40:43 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Is that bad? If it gets to where it was last weekend it could be a significant problem, but so far it looks to be under control. IMHO it's up to the weather and snowpack melt now. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:41:27 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
WTF? Why don't they go back to calling them Life Jackets. Maybe I need to bring that up with the Donald.... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
A Lot. I'd have my pfd on. WTF? Why don't they go back to calling them Life Jackets. Maybe I need to bring that up with the Donald.... Because they're more like a vest and then there are some that go in front and around your neck and not really a vest and soon it was like the assless chaps thing and they said fuck it...it's a device. A fucking personal flotation device. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:48:02 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Is that bad? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
857.49 inflow back up to 45k No. Up to 100kcfs they can match with the damaged spillway. Over 100kcfs and the dam will begin to fill ( ie act as a flood control dam) They have some 44 ft of rise to get to where they were last week. Last week they were seeing flows of 190kcfs for a short duration. Round numbers: 1/3 ft per hour rise for every 60kfs over the outflow rate. ( lot of variables there, but close enough for talking purposes, IMHO) I think the show is over unless something else goes south on them. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:49:12 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
A Lot. I'd have my pfd on. Pre-fucked device. Good luck, Pro. ETA: lake level only dropped .1 ft. in the last hour. Smallest drop I've seen since it started going down. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:49:15 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Is that bad? Level of the lake is getting lower and lower which means it can absorb more water. Water is flowing out currently at 70k cubic feet per second. (cfs) Water is flowing in at 45k cfs. Which is higher than it has been but not that bad. Just means the level of the lake won't drop quite as fast... The inflow has to get higher than the outflow for the lake level to start raising again. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 1:58:44 AM EDT
[#22]
I don't know where the idea that they are making a cofferdam came from. Think someone suggested it and other people just assumed it was right. Did we have a real source on that?
Because I don't think they are doing that... they may have prepped an access point in case they have to do that... but so far as I have seen the only plan they have announced for the area is clearing a channel through the debris. And why would you be doing that while dumping what amounts to a bunch of debris behind you... making your work futile? |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:02:07 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don't know where the idea that they are making a cofferdam came from. Think someone suggested it and other people just assumed it was right. Did we have a real source on that? Because I don't think they are doing that... they may have prepped an access point in case they have to do that... but so far as I have seen the only plan they have announced for the area is clearing a channel through the debris. And why would you be doing that while dumping what amounts to a bunch of debris behind you... making your work futile? The cofferdam remarks are a joke. They are making fun of Oroville Bob, the disinformation guy. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:03:49 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Earlier I predicted that page 333 will hold that event. Great Avatar OP! |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:10:44 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Well it isn't good... But I wouldn't call it bad yet. Level of the lake is getting lower and lower which means it can absorb more water. Water is flowing out currently at 70k cubic feet per second. (cfs) Water is flowing in at 45k cfs. Which is higher than it has been but not that bad. Just means the level of the lake won't drop quite as fast... The inflow has to get higher than the outflow for the lake level to start raising again. Uh oh, the voltage is down to 13.4 
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:26:46 AM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:36:15 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'll jump in on page 211... as an engineer for the company with all that yellow equipment... That is some glorious work being done by our products. Thank you all for all the awesome photos and information. I've shared numerous photos/quotes from this thread at work. May God be with everyone working at the dam. Be safe! That is a nice looking Komatsu excavator on that barge.
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:36:42 AM EDT
[#28]
You don't see that every day.
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:39:03 AM EDT
[#29]
I just noticed something and don't wanna draw, just wondering if others see it too.
In this photo, where you see the concrete fell in the corner near the wall, do you see the rectangular section missing from the bottom side of the concrete, about a foot wide? Water wouldn't have made the edges that square. 
If you assume that is a rectangular channel perpendicular to the ramp, the guy in the red is standing over where it would be on the other side, which is a bit after where the erosion started, IMO, creating the space for the spillway to fall into. 
Let me know if I accidentally ingested drugs when envisioning this. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:51:20 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Leme shake the grapes and see what shakes out.1. Every organization is planning on this thing failing before summer. 2. If it doesnt fail, 2 things will be mandatory: 2.a, main spillway stays functional 2.b, no megastorm. ( more than ~7 days of 1 inch a day plus 5 inches on any random day) 3. ( DWR cant pre fuck any further bits of this) ( pre fuck is a propriatary term I created in refrence to a previous Boss of mine who would hand me projects, pre fucked) Wait... WHAT is going to fail??? |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:51:23 AM EDT
[#31]
Don't believe there were any voids beneath the spillway, when it was built.
After years of neglect ymmv. Corners of concrete chip fairly easily. When the slab fell into the washed out area beneath it, it probably didn't fall straight down. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 2:57:05 AM EDT
[#32]
Their TO DO List in the short term:
Channel Croyle said Sunday the plan was to put barges in the pool near the dam and scoop the debris into the barges. He said the spillway flow would not have to be cut off to do the work. Monday he said the work was underway Power lines Croyle also said on Sunday that PG&E would be moving transmission towers for a DWR power line from the Hyatt Powerplant that crosses the spillways. The flow in the main spillway was reduced at one point last week when it appeared erosion was threatening the base of the towers. Croyle said the plan was to move the towers higher up toward the gates of the spillway, an area that was more stable. PG&E also plans to move a couple of transmission towers from a line it operates that crosses the Diversion Pool. The towers are located in a potential runoff zone from the emergency spillway, and moving them would eliminate the potential they might wash into the river. Maybe with the downtime they'll un-hork diversion tunnel inlet as well. Tuesday News I missed |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 3:04:32 AM EDT
[#33]
Charter cable has been down all day and finally got caught up on this thread, big thanks to m1-Ed, moo and three dog for the member ship
And others saying good choice, you guys rock I have some weather tidbits to update in a bit off our local weather guy, I'm glad to see the situation calming down, snow levels have remained low and even when raining up here precip has been very light Rivers flowing through town have been tame and road flooding has stayed allmost non existent last few days The weather forecaster for our area had a interesting tidbit for rain/snow levels for I think Tuesday I'll update in a bit when I get back on the pc |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 3:10:09 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wait... WHAT is going to fail??? My guess as to what that means is that at some point the primary spill will become totally unusable without risking total failure and the emergency spillway will again be used and with the data they have from using it last week, they don't think it will stand up to the use of that much inflow and will fail resulting in a massive release. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 3:18:50 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trackhoe on a barge, floating beneath the tallest dam in America, digging the broken remains of a very large spillway. Lake is full, it's raining and the whole facility is governed and ran by what appears to be idiots. Wonder what that pays per hour? I'm pretty sure the guy that does all of my excavation work would do it for $130 an hour using someone else's equipment. He charges me $110 an hour on his own, I don't trust anyone else on my jobs but him. He can nearly undress you with a backhoe, he can't run a skid steer worth a shit though. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 3:20:11 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I just noticed something and don't wanna draw, just wondering if others see it too. In this photo, where you see the concrete fell in the corner near the wall, do you see the rectangular section missing from the bottom side of the concrete, about a foot wide? Water wouldn't have made the edges that square. http://i.imgur.com/Ya8uaKg.jpg If you assume that is a rectangular channel perpendicular to the ramp, the guy in the red is standing over where it would be on the other side, which is a bit after where the erosion started, IMO, creating the space for the spillway to fall into. http://i.imgur.com/NrnPTMK.jpg Let me know if I accidentally ingested drugs when envisioning this. 
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Posted: 2/18/2017 3:29:33 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What I'm not seeing is construction joints like this, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/pavement/images/t504030/p504030b.gif Not sure lacing large sections of concrete like in your image was a factor many years ago. I could be wrong? |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 3:53:07 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Leme shake the grapes and see what shakes out.1. Every organization is planning on this thing failing before summer. 2. If it doesnt fail, 2 things will be mandatory: 2.a, main spillway stays functional 2.b, no megastorm. ( more than ~7 days of 1 inch a day plus 5 inches on any random day) 3. ( DWR cant pre fuck any further bits of this) ( pre fuck is a propriatary term I created in refrence to a previous Boss of mine who would hand me projects, pre fucked) |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 3:56:25 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not sure lacing large sections of concrete like in your image was a factor many years ago. I could be wrong? |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 4:01:03 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wait... WHAT is going to fail??? The price of tea, in china. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 4:14:48 AM EDT
[#41]
Thread is like ice road truckers. People saying "someone might die!" every two seconds but nothing actually happens. Not saying I'm hoping for the dam to burst or anything, it's just kinda fun how engrossed the site seems to be with what'll prolly be a total non event.
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Posted: 2/18/2017 4:34:53 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That is a nice looking Komatsu excavator on that barge. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'll jump in on page 211... as an engineer for the company with all that yellow equipment... That is some glorious work being done by our products. Thank you all for all the awesome photos and information. I've shared numerous photos/quotes from this thread at work. May God be with everyone working at the dam. Be safe! That is a nice looking Komatsu excavator on that barge. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 4:55:19 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The price of tea, in china. You planning to head up there and livestream this weekend? Just wondering. Thanks for what you've done so far! |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 5:03:02 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thread is like ice road truckers. People saying "someone might die!" every two seconds but nothing actually happens. Not saying I'm hoping for the dam to burst or anything, it's just kinda fun how engrossed the site seems to be with what'll prolly be a total non event. You clearly haven't read the thread then if you are calling it a "total non event." |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 5:10:46 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryBering Sea Gold! 
Ed |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 5:17:53 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Charter cable has been down all day and finally got caught up on this thread, big thanks to m1-Ed, moo and three dog for the member ship And others saying good choice, you guys rock I have some weather tidbits to update in a bit off our local weather guy, I'm glad to see the situation calming down, snow levels have remained low and even when raining up here precip has been very light Rivers flowing through town have been tame and road flooding has stayed allmost non existent last few days The weather forecaster for our area had a interesting tidbit for rain/snow levels for I think Tuesday I'll update in a bit when I get back on the pc Sorry about the cable bro. Just stay safe. And thank you. Ed |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 5:22:06 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I was born in Centralia and raised in Winlock until 7th grade (1990). Not related to your conversation at all, just thought I'd share since I saw you were from there! We have a nearby town named Centralia here in PA. It is, or was I should say, a mining town too. We used to take our 4x4's there all the time and explore. It's an extremely interesting place. You should look it up Long story short, the town dump was on a coal seam. Trash fire lit the seam and it's been burning underground for years. Town was eventually evacuated and closed off. Highway that ran through the town was re-routed around it but you can still get out on it. Looks like a scene from one of those earthquake movies |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 5:28:17 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Since the two are related I'm putting both in the same post. WWace - My thinking on the ski-jump is based on what Piratepaste40 is mentioning above...they will probably have a very short amount of time this year to actually do repairs to the main spillway this year, if at all. If they only have a few months where the water level can be managed < 850' by the hydroelectric portion of the dam, perhaps they can build the ski jump to allow it to still be functional with less damage down stream until a new spillway can be built in a new location, assuming the current spillway is beyond repair. My guess is that it could take the better part of a year or more to design and build a new spill way. Likely they'd need to build a coffer dam in the current lake at low levels to provide them a dry work site to do the major excavations needed. If the new spillway were to go in near the parking lot, remember that the bed rock (or whatever we're calling the rock) is right near the surface, meaning some SIGNIFICANT excavation would be required to get to down to the level needed for flood control above 850'. To me the ski jump would be something to buy time if it is determined that the main spill way would be too fragile to continue to use long term in its current state. I guess it could be a viable long term plan if they removed the remainder of the original spillway and allowed the water to splash down on the newly exposed rock that was opened up after the failure we've seen. Based on the latest flows it seems like it has somewhat stabilized, but we won't know until they shut down flow. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
why build ski jump in main spillway? you think it would be better to build a gizmo rather than working to repair the structure? Aux spillway lets you do whatever you want as you please without depending solely on the Espill or working in the spillway with the gates under a full head. Fuck that FBHO because it needs to be said Quoted:
When they get to the point of rebuilding the spillway, is it reasonable to think they can effect repairs that will make the spillway usable in one season? Not sure how much time they have to prep and stage materials, through July or August perhaps when inflow is low enough for the power plant outlets to maintain level for the rest of the season? Is a water bridge a viable alternative? Would it be viable for an interim solution until a solid bed is constructed? Is it even reasonable for the engineering plan and approvals to be completed by mid summer? Since the two are related I'm putting both in the same post. WWace - My thinking on the ski-jump is based on what Piratepaste40 is mentioning above...they will probably have a very short amount of time this year to actually do repairs to the main spillway this year, if at all. If they only have a few months where the water level can be managed < 850' by the hydroelectric portion of the dam, perhaps they can build the ski jump to allow it to still be functional with less damage down stream until a new spillway can be built in a new location, assuming the current spillway is beyond repair. My guess is that it could take the better part of a year or more to design and build a new spill way. Likely they'd need to build a coffer dam in the current lake at low levels to provide them a dry work site to do the major excavations needed. If the new spillway were to go in near the parking lot, remember that the bed rock (or whatever we're calling the rock) is right near the surface, meaning some SIGNIFICANT excavation would be required to get to down to the level needed for flood control above 850'. To me the ski jump would be something to buy time if it is determined that the main spill way would be too fragile to continue to use long term in its current state. I guess it could be a viable long term plan if they removed the remainder of the original spillway and allowed the water to splash down on the newly exposed rock that was opened up after the failure we've seen. Based on the latest flows it seems like it has somewhat stabilized, but we won't know until they shut down flow. They wouldn't even need to fully line it with concrete. Just excavate and clear an adequate channel of overburden so it doesnt end up in The watershed. They could cofferdam below the main spillway exit and fully dredge it out in safety. Lots of work but it would leave the project with an asset and another safety device. As the weir would remain functionality their is no need to spend more money on it to direct or armor that hill. |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 5:58:18 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Someone needs to go back to chainsaw certification training. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16682048_1252014738218965_5424670373177812340_n.jpg?oh=45049e12c85c10f03672524bb4f9a165&oe=59480C29 Greenwood corpsmembers clear brush near the main Oroville Dam spillway. They'll then construct a sandbag staircase on the hillside to allow easier access by engineers. Other corpsmembers continuing to assist at Chico's Silver Dollar fairgrounds, at the Chico airport and other locations. Someone needs to go back to chainsaw certification training. I'm betting they winched that tree back in the opposite direction of the spillway. Probably cut it that way then used brute force to rip it down. I'm sure they weren't taking any chances of it falling the wrong direction |
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Posted: 2/18/2017 5:59:33 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's been stated in previous pages hat as the level drops, they're simply not capable of sustaining the same outflow rate. I'm just a dumb office geek, but I bet you can't make water flow out of a gate at the same rate if there's less pressure behind the water. Eta: wrong quote |
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