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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:29:45 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Of course when I'm looking to buy a new place. Assholes My house is up over 100k in 15 months, shit is gonna pop. I’ll be pulling my new fortune off the table come March/April. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:31:15 PM EDT
[#2]
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Of course when I'm looking to buy a new place. Assholes I’d rather pay less for a place than have a low interest rate. You can always refi when rates drop, you never get a chance to buy for lower. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:32:34 PM EDT
[#3]
Make CDs Great Again.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:34:06 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Higher rates should help you, as real estate prices should come down. I’d rather pay less for a place than have a low interest rate. You can always refi when rates drop, you never get a chance to buy for lower. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Of course when I'm looking to buy a new place. Assholes I’d rather pay less for a place than have a low interest rate. You can always refi when rates drop, you never get a chance to buy for lower. 
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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:38:04 PM EDT
[#5]
Has Obama stopped taking credit for the economy?
Don't worry, when it picks back up he will take credit again. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:38:24 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Make CDs Great Again. People with actual money are getting tired of being outbid by a herd of sheep living on their credit cards and 84 month auto loans. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:44:15 PM EDT
[#7]
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Obama had zero interest rate. But the effects weren't felt at all in 2016, as interest rates were still very low. They've raised rates repeatedly in the last 3 years. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 5:53:46 PM EDT
[#8]
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Really? S&P PE ratio today would support an interest rate of 5.2 percent. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Everyone bitching about the rate hike is no different than any other welfare recipient. The Fed and .gov manipulated the shit out of the markets to save your stupid asses..... FOR OVER A FUCKING DECADE....., and now when they are trying to reel in some of that government cheese, you're up in arms about "Muh investments!". How fucking stupid do you have to be to think any of this market is real? P/E ratios are fucked. Corporate debt is fucked. Pensions fucked. Hedge funds closing left and right. ......... Market has been on life support for 10 goddamn years, GDP a function of increasing debt for the last 40 years.. and if this comes as a suprise to any of you..... God help ya. Nothing else would. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 6:15:33 PM EDT
[#9]
Those fuckers are just getting started, the destruction is on its way.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 6:30:46 PM EDT
[#10]
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says the nevertrumper and still not sorry your gal lost Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: LOL Powell is Trump's guy. For the last 5 years of BHO's presidency, GD screamed about how the Fed needed to stop printing money and needed to start slowly raising interest rates. Now that they have started doing just that, it's some grand conspiracy manufactured to take down Trump. and still not sorry your gal lost So please explain why we should have the interest rate pegged at 0 in perpetuity? Maybe we should crank up some more of that QE while we are at it too, eh? Let me guess....you also think "they" are going to tank the stock market just so your orange deity doesn't get reelected? 
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:06:04 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LOL Powell is Trump's guy. For the last 5 years of BHO's presidency, GD screamed about how the Fed needed to stop printing money and needed to start slowly raising interest rates. Now that they have started doing just that, it's some grand conspiracy manufactured to take down Trump. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:12:15 PM EDT
[#12]
Did they even hint at any kind of loosening bias in 2019?
The Don should audit the Fed & Ft Knox |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:13:30 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Did they even hint at any kind of loosening bias in 2019? The Don should audit the Fed & Ft Knox |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:16:56 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They have been kicking the can a lot longer then I thought they could. Next wave won’t be pretty. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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There was news on the radio this morning about "the coming recession". WTF? If that happens, it will instantly be labeled as "the Trump Recession", and will be called that 87 millions times in the next two years. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:18:00 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Two to three more hikes per evening news on my drive home Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Did they even hint at any kind of loosening bias in 2019? The Don should audit the Fed & Ft Knox thats gonna hurt I just read Powell said 2 rate hikes in 2019 instead of the earlier discussed 3. My guess is if one looked at the individual Fed members campaign contributions last election the were overwhelmingly Democrat...as they are historically. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:18:31 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Did they even hint at any kind of loosening bias in 2019? The Don should audit the Fed & Ft Knox |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:19:11 PM EDT
[#17]
doubletap
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:21:31 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
uff duh thats gonna hurt Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Did they even hint at any kind of loosening bias in 2019? The Don should audit the Fed & Ft Knox thats gonna hurt 
I thought is it MN or WI? |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:31:04 PM EDT
[#19]
Until interest rates go up, we can't actually make any ATTEMPT an economic recovery from 2008.
One of the largest domestic buyers of US T bills are US pension funds, guess who is going to need a LOT of liquidity soon. You might be bitching about an interest rate hike now, but if you want to avert a pension fund crisis this has to happen yesterday. Interest rates at essentially 0 are not indicative of a healthy economy. The housing market is insanely over valued all over the country right now. A slow and steady rise in interest rates could help prevent another 2008 style crash. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:34:07 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Until interest rates go up, we can't actually make any ATTEMPT an economic recovery from 2008. One of the largest domestic buyers of US T bills are US pension funds, guess who is going to need a LOT of liquidity soon. You might be bitching about an interest rate hike now, but if you want to avert a pension fund crisis this has to happen yesterday. Interest rates at essentially 0 are not indicative of a healthy economy. The house market is insanely over valued all over the country right now. A slow and steady rise in interest rates could help prevent another 2008 style crash. I bitched about those too. I just don't like the Federal Reserve. Whatever they do. It's kinda a ridiculous concept. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:36:19 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Raising rates will make servicing the debt that much more difficult as well. But you can't run ZIRP forever. This whole 'recovery' is just a giant bubble of debt, waiting to pop. Sure there's some good economic news, some growth, but nothing like the recovery people think was 'real'. I'm curious if we'll go into a decade of stagflation like Japan did. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Everyone bitching about the rate hike is no different than any other welfare recipient. The Fed and .gov manipulated the shit out of the markets to save your stupid asses..... FOR OVER A FUCKING DECADE....., and now when they are trying to reel in some of that government cheese, you're up in arms about "Muh investments!". How fucking stupid do you have to be to think any of this market is real? P/E ratios are fucked. Corporate debt is fucked. Pensions fucked. Hedge funds closing left and right. ......... Market has been on life support for 10 goddamn years, GDP a function of increasing debt for the last 40 years.. and if this comes as a suprise to any of you..... God help ya. But you can't run ZIRP forever. This whole 'recovery' is just a giant bubble of debt, waiting to pop. Sure there's some good economic news, some growth, but nothing like the recovery people think was 'real'. I'm curious if we'll go into a decade of stagflation like Japan did. The debt addiction has been so long and so complete at this point, there is no recovery for the patient that wont kill the patient. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:38:01 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Until interest rates go up, we can't actually make any ATTEMPT an economic recovery from 2008. One of the largest domestic buyers of US T bills are US pension funds, guess who is going to need a LOT of liquidity soon. You might be bitching about an interest rate hike now, but if you want to avert a pension fund crisis this has to happen yesterday. Interest rates at essentially 0 are not indicative of a healthy economy. The housing market is insanely over valued all over the country right now. A slow and steady rise in interest rates could help prevent another 2008 style crash. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:38:43 PM EDT
[#23]
Hopefully this will lead to a major correction in the real estate market. Prices are way overinflated in many areas.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:39:53 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LOL Powell is Trump's guy. For the last 5 years of BHO's presidency, GD screamed about how the Fed needed to stop printing money and needed to start slowly raising interest rates. Now that they have started doing just that, it's some grand conspiracy manufactured to take down Trump. If you look at labor participation rates it’s obvious as hell that their is little reason for the 180. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:44:24 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Haven't heard that in a long time.
I thought is it MN or WI? I hear it coming from upstairs on a regular basis...
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:46:21 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Both anywhere there's a contingent of Norwegians Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Haven't heard that in a long time.
I thought is it MN or WI? Plenty of Nordic bros up there. 
Edit: I'll take your skating, hockey, kindness and ice fishing, but you guys can keep lutefisk. 
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:51:34 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If a Dem president is elected next election what is the over/under that the rates drop immediately? #SWAMPLIFE |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:53:04 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yuuup! Used to live in MN. Plenty of Nordic bros up there.
Edit: I'll take your skating, hockey, kindness and ice fishing, but you guys can keep lutefisk. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Haven't heard that in a long time.
I thought is it MN or WI? Plenty of Nordic bros up there.
Edit: I'll take your skating, hockey, kindness and ice fishing, but you guys can keep lutefisk. It was very strange but interesting...kinda like Twilight Zone interesting. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:53:14 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Don't mistake the risk free rate of return as actually being risk free. There is a tiny bit of credit risk, liquidity, and a lot of interest rate risk Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I'm REALLY starting to sound like a broken record here. Once again. If someone buys a 1-Yr treasury today, they make 2.72%. Minus annualized inflation as of November of 2.2% = 0.52% real rate of interest. And that's with the official inflation rate  . |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:57:39 PM EDT
[#30]
Should have gotten on top of that home buying thing. Didn't really expect to stick it out at my current job/location this long though. On the plus side, through a combination of raising rates and opening an account at an online bank, my savings interest has about quintupled. It's nice seeing a non-trivial amount get deposited every month.
I feel like time to temporarily move from the L-fund to the G-fund in my TSP might be near. ARFCOM finance/investing 'experts', when is fo time for that move to jump the trough? |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:57:44 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So it was Greenspan's fault Pets.com disappeared? I thought it was because their most valuable asset was a sock puppet, which justified millions upon millions of investment dollars despite a lack of profit. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Be ready for the recession because its coming. Every time the economy is rolling along the Fed pops it. They popped the dot com and they popped the housing bubble. Sock your money away because its coming. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 7:59:38 PM EDT
[#32]
should i start buying stocks soon? or wait until 20% down from highs?
will house prices fall next year? |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:03:40 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Could you explain/extrapolate on that? |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:06:53 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yeah, ok... Nothing else would. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:07:36 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
S&P 500 P/E is about 19.1. So for about $19.10 I can buy an asset that earns $1 a year. Do a =($1/$19.10) and that ratio is about .052 or 5.2 percent. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Could you explain/extrapolate on that? |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:07:39 PM EDT
[#36]
Woohoo! My money market account loves it. Sold everything not too long ago. Currently don't own any stocks.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:24:12 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes, the Fed didn't sell one QE asset during the Obama presidency. So far this year, they have dumped 10 percent of the QE-acquired assets on the market. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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The rate hike isn’t even the big news. QT is. 
https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/200878/01EAD89E-6ECE-4E7E-A38D-23605D9834D1_jpeg-777848.JPG |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:26:14 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
yep, can't have Trump be successful, so got to raise interest rates to kill the economy edit - feds kept the interest rate at zero to an effective negative interest rate during obama's term, to protect him and hide the recession while bho was in office. now, they got to raise it through the roof to kill Trump's successful one, where everyone is making money |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:30:35 PM EDT
[#39]
How much more will we be paying in interest on the debt now ?
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:32:26 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Dumping equities into a down market. That strategy sounds foolproof. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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The rate hike isn’t even the big news. QT is.
https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/200878/01EAD89E-6ECE-4E7E-A38D-23605D9834D1_jpeg-777848.JPG If they dump them, it should effectively raise rates. Being fixed coupon. And yeah, they might lose money. But that may also have something to do with the timing - dump them before rates rise further, in order to realize more money from them. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:39:56 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Dumping equities into a down market. That strategy sounds foolproof. A good trader can make money no matter what is going on. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:42:04 PM EDT
[#42]
Stupid move.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:47:11 PM EDT
[#43]
I really suspect this is some deep-state shit trying to mess with Trump's Economy; and I don't usually think stuff like that.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:50:16 PM EDT
[#44]
While economies are cyclical this is definitely going to be engineered to tank the economy in such a way to hamper Trump's reelection.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:51:48 PM EDT
[#45]
dems finally get what they have been wishing for.
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Posted: 12/19/2018 8:57:15 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think you are misunderstanding what I wrote. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Yeah, ok... Nothing else would. Or you misunderstood mine? Eta; Too many games being played https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/11/19/pe-ratios-are-misleading-especially-right-now/ Because P/E ratios rely on flawed accounting earnings and ignore the cost of capital, they can steer investors towards value traps, stocks that look cheap but are actually very expensive when taking into account the comprehensive picture of a firm’s profitability.  Attached File |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 9:28:13 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I get the general, broad concepts. I also completely understand how unhealthy 0% interest rates are. I bitched about those too. I just don't like the Federal Reserve. Whatever they do. It's kinda a ridiculous concept. |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 9:30:19 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sure, that's on a instrument with no risk. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'm REALLY starting to sound like a broken record here. Once again. If someone buys a 1-Yr treasury today, they make 2.72%. Minus annualized inflation as of November of 2.2% = 0.52% real rate of interest. And that's with the official inflation rate . |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 9:34:35 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He should have |
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Posted: 12/19/2018 9:37:03 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When, exactly, has the fed ever made GOOD decisions? Quote HistoryQuoted:
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I get the general, broad concepts. I also completely understand how unhealthy 0% interest rates are. I bitched about those too. I just don't like the Federal Reserve. Whatever they do. It's kinda a ridiculous concept. I don't like central banks. What really bakes my noodle is whether we'd be better or worse off WITH government oversight. |
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