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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:18:58 PM EDT
[#1]
Tracks don't agree much. Pick what you want. Best thing is be prepared.
  
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:22:39 PM EDT
[#2]
I wish all you Floridians the best.
That said based off the reaction to this thing I’ll bet it turns into a nothingburger. I say that because the ones they flip out about ahead of time never are that bad, and the ones like Katrina where they shrug them off always seem to be worse than expected. Shit this storm is days away and they already activated OHTF1, and it’s not even an organized bullseye on the radar at this point. I hope for everyone’s sake I’m right. 
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:22:53 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Tracks heading back to Tampa. Cantore is in Clearwater Bch tonight, just so U know |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:25:53 PM EDT
[#4]
Clearwater is about 50 miles north so not great news but could be worse.
Then again Clearwater Beach is a good party beach so his location choice might be for a different reason. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:29:58 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Tracks don't agree much. Pick what you want. Best thing is be prepared. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al092022.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_geps_latest.png |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:34:57 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wish all you Floridians the best. That said based off the reaction to this thing I’ll bet it turns into a nothingburger. I say that because the ones they flip out about ahead of time never are that bad, and the ones like Katrina where they shrug them off always seem to be worse than expected. Shit this storm is days away and they already activated OHTF1, and it’s not even an organized bullseye on the radar at this point. I hope for everyone’s sake I’m right. To be fair, I remember watching Katrina on the news very intently and those folks had a solid 3-4 days to get out of Dodge. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that's how I remember it. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:34:59 PM EDT
[#7]
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:37:23 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Those two things together are a shit show on a normal day anymore. All of Central Florida will be a shitshow come evacuation orders. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 8:57:30 PM EDT
[#9]
Go west of SC please,I'm moving Friday
Best wishes for you FL folks |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:02:31 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep, and the modeling is so inaccurate early on that if you leave early enough to avoid the I-95/I-75 parking lot, you might actually be going to somewhere worse. That happened a few years ago to a lady I used to work with. We were looking at a direct hit until basically the day of the storm, and she ended up bugging out to a friend's place just in time for it to make a sudden turn and go right over where she ended up instead She got back talking about how the power went out so they had no idea it had turned for them, and she was thinking "oh my God if it's this bad here I can't imagine"
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:10:29 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'd have to totally disagree. Being stuck in a hotel, and your car destroyed, isn't exactly a win. If you're going to bail, get out of the cone entirely, don't just run from one side of the cone to the other. SC coast will wind up with a good sized storm out of this for sure, wind and rain, but would probably be safer than Lakeland. Anyone who saw Central FL after Charlie can attest to the damage it wrought right up the middle of the state, even 50-100 miles after landfall. On the plus side, leaving Zephyrhills allows them to take back roads north and east to get away from the crowd (provided they know how to use GPS maps). Avoid 4 and 75, and 301 will likely be a zoo as well. 471 up to the turnpike area of 75 might be viable, and from there taking 301 or county roads on north. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Leave tomorrow morning? Where do you all think is safe to weather the storm? South Carolina coast? My elderly parents are in Z-Hills area. @WesJanson If they were going to bail out, a hotel in Lakeland or Orlando or towards the east coast of Florida would be plenty fine, concrete structures like hotels do very well I'd have to totally disagree. Being stuck in a hotel, and your car destroyed, isn't exactly a win. If you're going to bail, get out of the cone entirely, don't just run from one side of the cone to the other. SC coast will wind up with a good sized storm out of this for sure, wind and rain, but would probably be safer than Lakeland. Anyone who saw Central FL after Charlie can attest to the damage it wrought right up the middle of the state, even 50-100 miles after landfall. On the plus side, leaving Zephyrhills allows them to take back roads north and east to get away from the crowd (provided they know how to use GPS maps). Avoid 4 and 75, and 301 will likely be a zoo as well. 471 up to the turnpike area of 75 might be viable, and from there taking 301 or county roads on north. This isn’t Andrew homie. central Florida is more than fine. By the time it crosses Orlando it would be a 1 at best, and even that is iffy. Messed up car? I’ve been through many a cane here and that’s really not common. Listen I’m all for being aware but let’s stay calm here this isn’t THAT big Orlando is more than a safe harbor and the tourist area infrastructure is more than sufficient. Disney was open at full capacity the day Charlie passed |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:28:05 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think that GFS model is screwing everything up. It is pushing the consensus track more westward while the more historically accurate EURO has it coming right up the mouth of Tampa Bay with a landfall of Cat4. It is making a lot of people thinking it is not too much to worry about. There should be massive evacuations in Pinellas and Hillsborough County going on right now. Come Tuesday when the track has it going over downtown St Pete and Tampa and people start taking things seriously I-75 and US 19 will be a parking lot to the Georgia border. You can add I-4 and SR 60 into that mix also. I hope I am being overly pessimistic and the EURO track is either wrong or changes. If it looks like it might go straight up the mouth of the bay and keeps going straight without going east enough to impact St Augustine I may just bug out with the wife and kids to our beach place over there. I’m in south Tampa, so if it goes up the bay I’ll get it’s full force. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:35:44 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Anyone here know if the waste storage at the Crystal River nuclear plant is protected from cat 3-4 hurricanes? Is this a nonissue? |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:40:05 PM EDT
[#14]
Supposed to drive down to Orlando next Monday the 3rd. While the storm will be gone what would our Florida folks think I will be coming into?
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:40:21 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Anyone here know if the waste storage at the Crystal River nuclear plant is protected from cat 3-4 hurricanes? Is this a nonissue? Hardened container and storage I believe… |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:40:41 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If it looks like it might go straight up the mouth of the bay and keeps going straight without going east enough to impact St Augustine I may just bug out with the wife and kids to our beach place over there. I’m in south Tampa, so if it goes up the bay I’ll get it’s full force. You remember when Irma sucked the bay dry? I live right across from you in Shore Acres. I'm directly across from MacDill AFB. I'm living on a prayer buddy. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:47:46 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Supposed to drive down to Orlando next Monday the 3rd. While the storm will be gone what would our Florida folks think I will be coming into? Orlando will be fine. It will be a minor storm by the time it reaches Orlando. It will be like nothing happened by the 3rd. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:50:55 PM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:51:50 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Orlando will be fine. It will be a minor storm by the time it reaches Orlando. It will be like nothing happened by the 3rd. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Supposed to drive down to Orlando next Monday the 3rd. While the storm will be gone what would our Florida folks think I will be coming into? Orlando will be fine. It will be a minor storm by the time it reaches Orlando. It will be like nothing happened by the 3rd. I'm supposed to fly to Orlando (Sanford) on Friday evening. What do you think the chances are that happens?
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:52:09 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This isn’t Andrew homie. central Florida is more than fine. By the time it crosses Orlando it would be a 1 at best, and even that is iffy. Messed up car? I’ve been through many a cane here and that’s really not common. Listen I’m all for being aware but let’s stay calm here this isn’t THAT big Orlando is more than a safe harbor and the tourist area infrastructure is more than sufficient. Disney was open at full capacity the day Charlie passed Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Leave tomorrow morning? Where do you all think is safe to weather the storm? South Carolina coast? My elderly parents are in Z-Hills area. @WesJanson If they were going to bail out, a hotel in Lakeland or Orlando or towards the east coast of Florida would be plenty fine, concrete structures like hotels do very well I'd have to totally disagree. Being stuck in a hotel, and your car destroyed, isn't exactly a win. If you're going to bail, get out of the cone entirely, don't just run from one side of the cone to the other. SC coast will wind up with a good sized storm out of this for sure, wind and rain, but would probably be safer than Lakeland. Anyone who saw Central FL after Charlie can attest to the damage it wrought right up the middle of the state, even 50-100 miles after landfall. On the plus side, leaving Zephyrhills allows them to take back roads north and east to get away from the crowd (provided they know how to use GPS maps). Avoid 4 and 75, and 301 will likely be a zoo as well. 471 up to the turnpike area of 75 might be viable, and from there taking 301 or county roads on north. This isn’t Andrew homie. central Florida is more than fine. By the time it crosses Orlando it would be a 1 at best, and even that is iffy. Messed up car? I’ve been through many a cane here and that’s really not common. Listen I’m all for being aware but let’s stay calm here this isn’t THAT big Orlando is more than a safe harbor and the tourist area infrastructure is more than sufficient. Disney was open at full capacity the day Charlie passed They aren't really a thing until they hit Cat 3. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 9:52:37 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This isn’t Andrew homie. central Florida is more than fine. By the time it crosses Orlando it would be a 1 at best, and even that is iffy. Messed up car? I’ve been through many a cane here and that’s really not common. Listen I’m all for being aware but let’s stay calm here this isn’t THAT big Orlando is more than a safe harbor and the tourist area infrastructure is more than sufficient. Disney was open at full capacity the day Charlie passed Uh, kinda. Yes they opened, then closed the park at 1pm. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:00:06 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You remember when Irma sucked the bay dry? I live right across from you in Shore Acres. I'm directly across from MacDill AFB. I'm living on a prayer buddy. I do. Lots of people walking around in the dried out bay until the cops rolled up and started trying to run everyone off. I’m on the other side of the peninsula about a 10 min walk from bayshore just north of gandy. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:06:24 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A lot of experience with hurricanes in this thread. I'm not down playing anyone elses experience, but I will say that having been through a Cat 5 impact, it really becomes an event that is quite frightening. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I rode though the Panhandle in 2019 and the damage through there is far worse than what Charlie did. A lot of experience with hurricanes in this thread. I'm not down playing anyone elses experience, but I will say that having been through a Cat 5 impact, it really becomes an event that is quite frightening. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:09:20 PM EDT
[#24]
 [Sunday evening] Ian Strengthening; Significant Impacts to Cuba and Florida expected this Week |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:16:37 PM EDT
[#25]
Current trajectory puts us right dead smack in the eye, albeit inland. Wind damage (roof) and power down is our primary concern.
Locally, several gas stations are either down to 1 lane being open w/ long lines or have already stated they have ran out, as people head out north. Stores are getting swept clean as we speak. We spent the day tightening up around the house and locating a few items still in storage from our move, charging batteries, etc. We are beyond well stocked for nearly everything and I have worked several hurricanes, including Katrina and was on the ground when Rita hit, so this is nothing new. My concern is the wife being front line health care, may require her to remain at / report to work, when I'd strongly prefer to be home with me and the dogs... We shall see. Best of luck to my fellow Floridians!! |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:19:30 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If it looks like it might go straight up the mouth of the bay and keeps going straight without going east enough to impact St Augustine I may just bug out with the wife and kids to our beach place over there. I’m in south Tampa, so if it goes up the bay I’ll get it’s full force. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I think that GFS model is screwing everything up. It is pushing the consensus track more westward while the more historically accurate EURO has it coming right up the mouth of Tampa Bay with a landfall of Cat4. It is making a lot of people thinking it is not too much to worry about. There should be massive evacuations in Pinellas and Hillsborough County going on right now. Come Tuesday when the track has it going over downtown St Pete and Tampa and people start taking things seriously I-75 and US 19 will be a parking lot to the Georgia border. You can add I-4 and SR 60 into that mix also. I hope I am being overly pessimistic and the EURO track is either wrong or changes. If it looks like it might go straight up the mouth of the bay and keeps going straight without going east enough to impact St Augustine I may just bug out with the wife and kids to our beach place over there. I’m in south Tampa, so if it goes up the bay I’ll get it’s full force. I'm in NW Hillsborough. Euro model has the eye passing 5 miles to the west of me. I may need to help family out in Bradenton, otherwise I'll stay unless it becomes a 3+ (which I doubt). |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:22:08 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You remember when Irma sucked the bay dry? I live right across from you in Shore Acres. I'm directly across from MacDill AFB. I'm living on a prayer buddy. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: If it looks like it might go straight up the mouth of the bay and keeps going straight without going east enough to impact St Augustine I may just bug out with the wife and kids to our beach place over there. I’m in south Tampa, so if it goes up the bay I’ll get it’s full force. You remember when Irma sucked the bay dry? I live right across from you in Shore Acres. I'm directly across from MacDill AFB. I'm living on a prayer buddy. I remember doing jumping the TOC exercises at MacDill before retirement. CENTCOM and SOCOM have likely already started movement of critical functions to alternate locations up north. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:27:45 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All of Central Florida will be a shitshow come evacuation orders. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Those two things together are a shit show on a normal day anymore. All of Central Florida will be a shitshow come evacuation orders. Why would central Florida evacuate? |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:29:59 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Current trajectory puts us right dead smack in the eye, albeit inland. Wind damage (roof) and power down is our primary concern. Locally, several gas stations are either down to 1 lane being open w/ long lines or have already stated they have ran out, as people head out north. Stores are getting swept clean as we speak. We spent the day tightening up around the house and locating a few items still in storage from our move, charging batteries, etc. We are beyond well stocked for nearly everything and I have worked several hurricanes, including Katrina and was on the ground when Rita hit, so this is nothing new. My concern is the wife being front line health care, may require her to remain at / report to work, when I'd strongly prefer to be home with me and the dogs... We shall see. Best of luck to my fellow Floridians!! Ractrac next to my home was bone dry, but the 7/11 next door was still going. That said, glad I listened to my gut and filled my cans yesterday. Also glad I got all my propane Friday, as stores are already sold out as well. Hopefully 4 20s and 15g gas get us through this... I love our house, but I deeply hate that we have old windows; they are giving me so much anxiety at this point. Can't do anything about them at this point but pray it misses us in the bay.... |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:50:40 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why would central Florida evacuate? Because a good portion of Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties are liable to be under water from the sea surge. There will evacuation orders issued shortly. It will be a panic. Then you have a good number of chickenshits that will be scared to be near a hurricane and they will want to get out of Dodge. I've seen it before. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:51:32 PM EDT
[#31]
I know an older couple in Venice,FL that I'm concerned about. Fortunately, their house is built to later standards and they do have generators, ready to go.
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Posted: 9/25/2022 10:52:20 PM EDT
[#32]
Largo here, and...concerned.
I won't flood where I'm at, but I bet it's gonna beat up my one big oak tree in the front yard at least as bad as Irma did. I don't really care about that, but if the whole thing goes, I hope it goes towards the street. Then there's all my neighbor's trees that he refuses to cut back or down. I guess power loss is to be expected, since they always chase away the trimmers that Duke sends out to clear the lines. 
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:00:26 PM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:15:32 PM EDT
[#34]
Well shit, that puts the eye right over me now
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:18:56 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I do. Lots of people walking around in the dried out bay until the cops rolled up and started trying to run everyone off. I'm on the other side of the peninsula about a 10 min walk from bayshore just north of gandy. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You remember when Irma sucked the bay dry? I live right across from you in Shore Acres. I'm directly across from MacDill AFB. I'm living on a prayer buddy. I do. Lots of people walking around in the dried out bay until the cops rolled up and started trying to run everyone off. I'm on the other side of the peninsula about a 10 min walk from bayshore just north of gandy. Most of you probably already know this, but I just wanna remind everyone that the current path of the storm would have the front right quadrant as the leading edge toward Tampa Bay which will actually sweep in a ton of water, that's pretty much the worst scenario. It's based on the counter clockwise rotation of the storm, and the water that it's going to push up ahead on that front right quadrant. With Irma, the storm passed Tampa on the east, so being on the opposite side of the counter clockwise rotation, on the left quadrants, it drove water out and sucked the bay dry. I wouldn't expect that on this one. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:21:08 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well shit, that puts the eye right over me now don't worry, it'll keep shifting east. tampa gonna get proper fucked |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:29:55 PM EDT
[#37]
Starting to give me flashbacks of Charlie.
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:34:12 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Starting to give me flashbacks of Charlie. That was a fun year... 3 hurricanes crossing 15-20 miles from my house in under 2 months. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:35:10 PM EDT
[#39]
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:36:24 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: don't worry, it'll keep shifting east. tampa gonna get proper fucked Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Well shit, that puts the eye right over me now don't worry, it'll keep shifting east. tampa gonna get proper fucked I’m just south of ya’ll over the Skyway. This is gonna be bumpy ride.. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:37:30 PM EDT
[#41]
Pretty terrifying scenario that was ran a few years ago, based on a cat five with a very similar trajectory making landfall just west of Tampa Bay ..
https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2020/08/14/hurricane-phoenix-is-tampa-bays-devastating-worst-case-scenario/?outputType=amp |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:39:35 PM EDT
[#42]
 It's weird how much difference there is between the UK Met models and the official track. The UK models have it only getting to a weak Cat 1 |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:41:22 PM EDT
[#43]
Yep..I’m about 30 miles due east from the center of the projected path by cedar key now. Only good thing is it will most likely change a little more and the bad thing is most likely further east which gets me closer to center punched with the eye.
Meh..button things up and bolt outa here on Wednesday. |
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:43:01 PM EDT
[#44]
I am in SWFL and I think people around here should be paying closer attention, that track keeps pushing back east. Charlie turned when it wanted to and didn't bother with the predictions.
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:43:26 PM EDT
[#45]
I’m up in Hernando County far enough inland to not worry about storm surge. But it is going to rock us if the track holds. My brother is in Safety Harbor near the bay in an A or B zone.
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:48:01 PM EDT
[#46]
That latest east shift takes me out of the cone of doom. Now I have to worry about family down in Ft Myers Beach.
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Posted: 9/25/2022 11:55:40 PM EDT
[#47]
Predicting just N of Tampa area
 I have family in the area, and we just had to make an emergency trip down there last year this time after my dad suffered a fatal bicycle accident going down the bridge to Clearwater. He lived in Dunedin. My sister and family still lives in the area.  Ian Update Florida |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 12:27:04 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Saw Miami after Andrew and the 2 things that really struck me were the height of the storm surge water mark on apartment buildings (above 2nd floor level), and the miles of pine trees permanently curved over at 30-45° as seen from a boat. It was sobering. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: A lot of experience with hurricanes in this thread. I'm not down playing anyone elses experience, but I will say that having been through a Cat 5 impact, it really becomes an event that is quite frightening. Saw Miami after Andrew and the 2 things that really struck me were the height of the storm surge water mark on apartment buildings (above 2nd floor level), and the miles of pine trees permanently curved over at 30-45° as seen from a boat. It was sobering. I retired from FedEx as a truck mechanic. My manager was in charge of the Miami market mechanics when Andrew hit. He had a wall in his office with some framed pictures of the damage. Holy crap. Giant concrete roof beams slid off supports laying on trucks. Trucks flipped on their side and pushed on top each other in the parking lot. I remember looking at them in disbelief. I transferred to SW Florida to be near my parents in Port Charlotte a month after Charlie. They got lucky with minimal damage due to shutters and a brand new metal roof. The neighbors weren't so lucky. |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 12:33:17 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Charlie sucked. It had SRQ as the target and then it took a right turn and throttled Charlotte. You can still see damage left by that bastard. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Same here. Yesterday at noon Tampa was the bullseye. Now it's Apalachicola. Sigh of relief. But things can (and usually do) change when the storm is this far from landfall. Remember Charley in 2004? This... https://www.wfla.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/71/2019/08/charley-3-days-out.gif Turned into this practically overnight... https://www2.atmohs.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/04/charley/charley.gif Plenty of people in Punta Gorda failed to prepare and got hammered. We got slapped hard on the east coast to. Caught everyone off guard. After seeing trees blown north on one side of I75 and south on the other, I'm still convinced Charlie was actually the world's biggest tornado more than a hurricane. That thing was tight, fast and violent. Charlie sucked. It had SRQ as the target and then it took a right turn and throttled Charlotte. You can still see damage left by that bastard. It took a half dozen Sprinter vans and a tractor trailer, flipped them on their side and pushed all of them into the retention pond that had filled with water at our Punta Gorda facility. FedEx ended up building a stand alone facility because the one they leased at PGD couldn't park more than a couple of vehicles inside and it had suffered extensive damage. The tops still haven't grown back in my parents pine trees at their former place in Port Charlotte... |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 12:36:13 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Florida today https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/09/25/16/62782127-11247913-image-a-47_1664120369578.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/09/25/16/62782115-11247913-image-m-54_1664120467815.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/09/25/15/62768357-11247913-Floridians_panic_bug_water_at_Costco_ahead_of_a_possible_hurrica-a-42_1664116339610.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/09/25/15/62779775-11247913-Florida_residents_like_the_shopper_pictured_here_on_September_24-a-10_1664116083103.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/09/25/16/62782131-11247913-image-a-45_1664120365312.jpg How do you live in Florida and not have spare drinking water on hand???? Jesus fucking christ people are fucking retards... |
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