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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:17:57 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 11PM Update SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 83.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/381696/223342_3day_cone_with_line_png-2540794.JPG Those spaghetti models look my 2 year old trying to color Florida. lol |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:27:25 PM EST
[#2]
that electric bill about to get cheap
opens next month electric bill... please don't be high electric bill:  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:30:02 PM EST
[#3]
I hope it keeps shifting east but who knows.
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:33:56 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ah you live in lake county Nope. East Pasco. Zephyrhills. |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:35:51 PM EST
[#5]
Quote History |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:37:42 PM EST
[#6]
Carla 1961
Alicia 1983 Rita 2005 Ike 2008 Harvey 2017 And several other tropical storms and small hurricanes Don’t remember much about Carla but the stories people told me. I remember the water stains on the ceiling. It was evidently a bad mofo. But the more years of tree growth you have the more power problems you have. Being 55 miles off the water helps but they are all wildcards. Almost got killed on the first service call after Ike went through. Fence electrified by broken neutral through a piece of hardware cloth tied from the ground wire pipe to the gate post to keep the dog in. I don’t ever want to see another one. |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:42:19 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: For anyone considering bugging out from the west coast I'd recommend considering south and east versus running north. While 75 is starting to get busy route 80 and 27 across and south were almost empty today and will probably stay that way. There's been recent work on both roads to build deep ditches, and I feel pretty good about them being safe in heavy rains. Hotels in Fort Lauderdale are almost empty. The Below Deck crew was at Bo's Beach Day Bar yesterday, and we ran up the New River and bar hopped all afternoon yesterday and had the places to ourselves. By this weekend it's supposed to be 80's/90's and sunny again, and there are worse places to ride out this mess if you need to. That's what I told our friends' parents, they were thinking of heading north (from N Ft Myers) and I told them head SE to Ft Lauderdale or Miami, as the storm will be dumping a ton of rain as it moves NE and traffic will be a nightmare. So far I think they will ride it out (it will be their first), but aside from a genny they are as prepared. We are heading there next week (should be there Wednesday if the roads are passable through GA and N FL). Praying for everyone in its path! |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:50:52 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Crazy. Lake Okeechobee is going up about 1/2" per day right now. I'm interested to see what tomorrow's Lake Level Report will be. My property inland is on the waterway, and several large boats were spotted heading east across Lake O. For anyone considering bugging out from the west coast I'd recommend considering south and east versus running north. While 75 is starting to get busy route 80 and 27 across and south were almost empty today and will probably stay that way. There's been recent work on both roads to build deep ditches, and I feel pretty good about them being safe in heavy rains. Hotels in Fort Lauderdale are almost empty. The Below Deck crew was at Bo's Beach Day Bar yesterday, and we ran up the New River and bar hopped all afternoon yesterday and had the places to ourselves. By this weekend it's supposed to be 80's/90's and sunny again, and there are worse places to ride out this mess if you need to. My girls are coming home early Wed as they both have class tomorrow. UF has canceled Wed thru Fri classes. I told them they might consider avoiding I75 and I10. |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:52:48 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My girls are coming home early Wed as they both have class tomorrow. UF has canceled Wed thru Fri classes. I told them they might consider avoiding I75 and I10. My daughter is at UF, too. She lives off-campus in an upstairs apartment so she's staying put. (We're in WY, so she'd have to go to her grandmother's house in Ft Meade if she wanted to leave). |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:57:22 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My daughter is at UF, too. She lives off-campus in an upstairs apartment so she's staying put. (We're in WY, so she'd have to go to her grandmother's house in Ft Meade if she wanted to leave). One is on campus at Beaty Towers, the other in a typical run down student ghetto house. They prefer to come west...and I'm okay with that. |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 10:59:10 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: One is on campus at Beaty Towers, the other in a typical run down student ghetto house. They prefer to come west...and I'm okay with that. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: My daughter is at UF, too. She lives off-campus in an upstairs apartment so she's staying put. (We're in WY, so she'd have to go to her grandmother's house in Ft Meade if she wanted to leave). One is on campus at Beaty Towers, the other in a typical run down student ghetto house. They prefer to come west...and I'm okay with that. Yeah, the student housing sucks. My daughter was stuck in a dorm for her freshman year and hated it. Water leaks and black mold everywhere. |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 11:49:08 PM EST
[#12]
I've settled on caliber for looter, but what barrel length?
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Posted: 9/26/2022 11:52:33 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've settled on caliber for looter, but what barrel length? https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52381800775_af0706284c_b.jpg  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/26/2022 11:54:24 PM EST
[#14]
Tampa Bay is going to get hammered
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Posted: 9/26/2022 11:57:08 PM EST
[#15]
Will it go over land and back into the Atlantic?
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Posted: 9/27/2022 12:00:06 AM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I've settled on caliber for looter, but what barrel length? https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52381800775_af0706284c_b.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/210/otters_jpg-2540852.JPG THANK YOU! I needed some levity from watching this thing approach. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 12:01:11 AM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Will it go over land and back into the Atlantic? Neither the GFS or the European have it making it all the way to the Atlantic. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 12:27:23 AM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Tampa Bay is going to get hammered Been there, done that, and don't wish it on anyone!!!! |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 12:45:35 AM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've settled on caliber for looter, but what barrel length? https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52381800775_af0706284c_b.jpg I'd prefer to use the top one as that'd mean they were at 3x distances. Either one should keep les otters at bay though  Speaking of all that, I think I just heard a chainsaw outside a minute ago. Might be hugging my rifle tonight in case of surprise serial killer or aggressive nocturnal lumberjack 
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Posted: 9/27/2022 1:39:08 AM EST
[#20]
Upgraded to Category 3
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 83.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES Track is unchanged.  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 2:01:44 AM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Upgraded to Category 3 SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 83.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES Track is unchanged. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/381696/042148_3day_cone_with_line_png-2540896.JPG At this rate it's going to hit as a 4. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 2:13:39 AM EST
[#22]
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Posted: 9/27/2022 2:15:18 AM EST
[#23]
Storm now predicted to slow to a crawl as Cat 4, absolute worst case scenario for Tampa, 48 hrs of hurricane winds, with storm surge!
GTFO |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 2:59:51 AM EST
[#24]
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Posted: 9/27/2022 3:03:30 AM EST
[#25]
My Daughter moved out there this year, it's her first hurricane, she's right in the path, she's all supplied up, and ready to hunker down, and she's ready to bug out if needed.
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Posted: 9/27/2022 3:27:47 AM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My Daughter moved out there this year, it's her first hurricane, she's right in the path, she's all supplied up, and ready to hunker down, and she's ready to bug out if needed. Bug out time is like 2 days before. If you get to the point where it's like "oh shit, I need to get out of here" it's too late. Roads will be flooded, trees and lines will be down. Eye is predicted to come ashore when it is dark. Trapped in a car at night, pitch dark because the power is out in the middle of a hurricane does not sound fun. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 3:41:32 AM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bug out time is like 2 days before. If you get to the point where it's like "oh shit, I need to get out of here" it's too late. Roads will be flooded, trees and lines will be down. Eye is predicted to come ashore when it is dark. Trapped in a car at night, pitch dark because the power is out in the middle of a hurricane does not sound fun. When it comes to Florida, bugging out 2 days in advance could put you in a worse spot. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:01:30 AM EST
[#28]
Good morning fellow Floridians and Arfcom hurricane watchers.
Thanks for the updates overnight. Now looking more likely that the center of the storm may pass directly over our location but probably will not have an eyewall if it makes it across to Brevard county. 4:50 a.m. and it is 78F outside with a SW wind @ 9 mph and humidity is 91%. It is overcast on the Space Coast.. Just waiting for updates and tuning in to Fox35, looks like they will be going wall to wall with coverage over the next few days. Tom Terry (ABC Channel 9) took his jacket off last night, so we are in trouble. He has become insufferable with his doom and gloom cringe. Stay safe everybody, and if you are local and in a bind give me a shout and I'll see what I can do to help out. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:12:40 AM EST
[#29]
Looks like it's gonna come out in JAX...
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:14:32 AM EST
[#30]
Prayers guys. This thing looks nasty
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:16:21 AM EST
[#31]
How much rain are they predicting? That things going to park itself just inland and dump for almost a couple days. Not good.
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:19:49 AM EST
[#32]
5am EDT update
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:22:16 AM EST
[#33]
Phones just went off, not how I wanted to wake up. I hope you guys up north are safe and prepped as you can be. I have a sneaking feeling they will call for evac in my area.
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:29:21 AM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How much rain are they predicting? That things going to park itself just inland and dump for almost a couple days. Not good. Latest Euro had over 20" and latest GFS had over 40" in the Tampa area as Ian puts on the brakes after landfall. Either would be catastrophic ala Hurricane Harvey. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:31:05 AM EST
[#35]
For all the people who have moved here in the past year or so…
Welcome to New Florida Resident Initiation Week. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:35:06 AM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good morning fellow Floridians and Arfcom hurricane watchers. Thanks for the updates overnight. Now looking more likely that the center of the storm may pass directly over our location but probably will not have an eyewall if it makes it across to Brevard county. 4:50 a.m. and it is 78F outside with a SW wind @ 9 mph and humidity is 91%. It is overcast on the Space Coast.. Just waiting for updates and tuning in to Fox35, looks like they will be going wall to wall with coverage over the next few days. Tom Terry (ABC Channel 9) took his jacket off last night, so we are in trouble. He has become insufferable with his doom and gloom cringe. Stay safe everybody, and if you are local and in a bind give me a shout and I'll see what I can do to help out. Fox 35 consistently has the best coverage, Jamie King is a pro been through a few hurricanes watching him. I am in Vero Beach if you need anything. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:35:38 AM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Latest Euro had over 20" and latest GFS had over 40" in the Tampa area as Ian puts on the brakes after landfall. Either would be catastrophic ala Hurricane Harvey. We personally got 27 inches in Harvey but with in 15 miles there were readings of as much as 60 inches. Just however the bands hit you. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:36:08 AM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Latest Euro had over 20" and latest GFS had over 40" in the Tampa area as Ian puts on the brakes after landfall. Either would be catastrophic ala Hurricane Harvey. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: How much rain are they predicting? That things going to park itself just inland and dump for almost a couple days. Not good. Latest Euro had over 20" and latest GFS had over 40" in the Tampa area as Ian puts on the brakes after landfall. Either would be catastrophic ala Hurricane Harvey. OMG. That “trend” if it is one where they park themselves and cause Biblical flooding is one of the main reasons we moved away from South Louisiana. Our home flooded in 2016 and I vowed to do everything I could to avoid going through it again. Prayers for Florida. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:40:00 AM EST
[#39]
Cuba will be just a speed bump for this beast
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Posted: 9/27/2022 4:44:19 AM EST
[#40]
I’ve got friends in Clearwater that were planning on coming up to Ohio. They were intending to leave Thursday evening but they’ve decided to leave Tuesday evening instead.
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:03:28 AM EST
[#41]
Jesus. Now they have the eye going straight up Tampa Bay.
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:04:24 AM EST
[#42]
Quote History |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:08:27 AM EST
[#43]
I predict landfall within 10 miles of Sarasota.
This has Charley written all over it, but a bit further north. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:09:53 AM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've settled on caliber for looter, but what barrel length? https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52381800775_af0706284c_b.jpg Short barrel for indoors 16” to 20” for outdoors NVG for both! 
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:12:05 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I predict landfall within 10 miles of Sarasota. This has Charley written all over it, but a bit further north. Yup. Just about spot on I would say. Still gonna be a lot of wind and rain plus surge! |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:16:29 AM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I predict landfall within 10 miles of Sarasota. This has Charley written all over it, but a bit further north. Agreed. I didn’t think it was supposed to go CAT3 this early was it? I understand why their models show it weakening as it gets close to land, but I don’t take that for granted at all. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:18:15 AM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yup. Just about spot on I would say. Still gonna be a lot of wind and rain plus surge! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I predict landfall within 10 miles of Sarasota. This has Charley written all over it, but a bit further north. Yup. Just about spot on I would say. Still gonna be a lot of wind and rain plus surge! I’m on the east coast, but I think this is going to swing in south of Tampa and follow I-4 similar to Charlie. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:23:08 AM EST
[#48]
This track blows
 10-15 inches of rain for Volusia. I’m most concerned about flooding. |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:23:28 AM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @blackfox I know a couple of bars in the area fully stocked and generators at the ready.  Also have you had a burger or ribs at Le Tub yet?? Let me know any and we can set up an Arfcom lunch Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm up for a party on the ARFCOM Yacht in Fort Lauderdale! @blackfox I know a couple of bars in the area fully stocked and generators at the ready. Also have you had a burger or ribs at Le Tub yet?? Let me know any and we can set up an Arfcom lunch I love it @rustyprop ! We haven’t gone to Le Tub yet, but will add it to the list. I’ll stay with the boat during the storm, but don’t expect too much here. It would be great to catch up while in the area! |
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Posted: 9/27/2022 5:28:24 AM EST
[#50]
Here comes this..
 I'm fairly close to the projected path of the hurricane eye. Anna Maria Island and Tampa Bay are only a few miles away. Not my first hurricane, as I've been through several since 74 here. Yeeeehawww!!.. Hope all of you in the affected area stay safe! 
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