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Posted: 9/23/2022 2:28:40 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So I'm one of those horrible Yankee transplants, and it's looking like based off models I'll get to see the center of the eye, lol. Knowing this shit ain't accurate yet, if it was, what should I expect? Already got an evac plan, and enough supplies to last months. Go ahead and book your hotel room in Georgia. You can always cancel. Get autos full and leave early. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 3:48:25 PM EDT
[#2]
Well this sucks. I lost power for 13 days after Irma, that's what you get for living in the boonies. Looks like I better plan to be in the dark again for a while
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Posted: 9/23/2022 3:52:23 PM EDT
[#3]
Forecast
Our Forecast ?We have not made any significant changes to the track forecast in this advisory. We did lower the predicted intensity a little after the storm crosses Florida on Wednesday, but no other changes were made. The depression should strengthen into a tropical by tomorrow as wind shear in its path decreases. It is predicted to become a Category 2 hurricane south of Cuba on Monday, but it could be a little stronger. Some weakening is expected as the center crosses Cuba Monday night. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly it will regain its strength prior to moving inland into the southwest Florida Peninsula on Tuesday evening. It could be a little stronger or weaker than we are forecasting. We think that the predicted hurricane will weaken as it crosses Florida on Wednesday. Whether it weakens below hurricane strength over Florida is questionable. However, any hurricane force winds would cover only a small area by the time it exits the coast of Florida. Once the center is over the Atlantic east of Florida, we think that it will regain its strength as it tracks northward toward the Carolinas. It is too early to be confident in whether the center will make landfall in the Carolinas, but that is a good possibility |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 3:55:42 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Forecast Our Forecast ?We have not made any significant changes to the track forecast in this advisory. We did lower the predicted intensity a little after the storm crosses Florida on Wednesday, but no other changes were made. The depression should strengthen into a tropical by tomorrow as wind shear in its path decreases. It is predicted to become a Category 2 hurricane south of Cuba on Monday, but it could be a little stronger. Some weakening is expected as the center crosses Cuba Monday night. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly it will regain its strength prior to moving inland into the southwest Florida Peninsula on Tuesday evening. It could be a little stronger or weaker than we are forecasting. We think that the predicted hurricane will weaken as it crosses Florida on Wednesday. Whether it weakens below hurricane strength over Florida is questionable. However, any hurricane force winds would cover only a small area by the time it exits the coast of Florida. Once the center is over the Atlantic east of Florida, we think that it will regain its strength as it tracks northward toward the Carolinas. It is too early to be confident in whether the center will make landfall in the Carolinas, but that is a good possibility Just curious where you are getting these summaries |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 4:02:33 PM EDT
[#5]
People already panic buying water. Stopped at Publix on the way home and the water section was almost picked clean. Only had like 15, 1 gallon jugs of Publix water left. I suspect Home Depot and Lowe’s will be slammed this weekend with people buying plywood.
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Posted: 9/23/2022 4:06:21 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Of course it is… I’m surprised they didn’t say it was going to be historical category 6!! |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 4:09:45 PM EDT
[#7]
What does Frankie Mac have to say aboot it?
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Posted: 9/23/2022 4:16:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So I'm one of those horrible Yankee transplants, and it's looking like based off models I'll get to see the center of the eye, lol. Knowing this shit ain't accurate yet, if it was, what should I expect? Already got an evac plan, and enough supplies to last months. Anticipate 2-5 days without power. Less if you're lucky, more if you're not. Generator or a power pack/solar charger would be a good idea (from just enough to charge your phone, to enough to power your kettle, to enough to run chunks of your house/fridge/window unit). Go out and stock up on a few days (or more!) bottled water. Food you can cook or eat without your oven/microwave (and/or pick up some fuel for your grill). Do that now, and avoid the stupidity (and shortages) as time grows short. You got all the medications you might need for that span? If not, call your doc and tell 'em the storm's coming, and you need to stock up, so will they push prescriptions through to (Winn-Dixie/Publix/WalMart/CVS/wherever you go) RFN? Assume the area won't have functioning credit/debit systems or ATMs. Go get some cash out, RFN. Go get any gas you'll want/need, ahead of time. As soon as it becomes "quite likely" to come ashore near you, the gas stations will become Retard HQ. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 4:23:10 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Of course it is… I’m surprised they didn’t say it was going to be historical category 6!! (forecast sponsored by Home Depot) |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 4:29:42 PM EDT
[#10]
Leaving Key West today - last day of vacation. AB marina emptied out noticeably from just yesterday. Guessing those folks are probably headed to the Bahamas or somewhere up the east coast of Florida.
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Posted: 9/23/2022 4:33:56 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People already panic buying water. Stopped at Publix on the way home and the water section was almost picked clean. Only had like 15, 1 gallon jugs of Publix water left. I suspect Home Depot and Lowe’s will be slammed this weekend with people buying plywood. Publix in Winter Park was busy around lunch, but not stupid. Plenty of water, TP and Paper Towels to be found so far. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:00:17 PM EDT
[#12]
Costco in Brandon was a shitshow.
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:15:47 PM EDT
[#13]
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:26:39 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Tom Terry just called it a CAT4 hurricane hitting us Wednesday. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/6578B03F-C6AB-44D2-9829-8851B7318BE5-478.gif If he had his sleeves rolled up that means it’s on! |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:29:33 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Tom Terry just called it a CAT4 hurricane hitting us Wednesday. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/6578B03F-C6AB-44D2-9829-8851B7318BE5-478.gif  Go home HWFI, you’re drunk |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:41:54 PM EDT
[#16]
Where is Jim Cantore?
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:51:19 PM EDT
[#17]
A long way out, and largely unreliable "phorecast".
Still, the convergence the models are showing is concerning. 
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:55:57 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nah. The power issues in south Tampa are due to the old power lines and the “Grand” oaks growing through them that teco and the tree huggers with the city of Tampa refuse to maintain. Teco is pretty good about getting power up and running. Flooding would mainly be people along the Hillsborough and Alifia along with bayshore and downtown. Was pretty crazy walking out to bayshore when Irma came through and seeing it suck all the water out of the bay before making land fall. My dock is on the Alafia River and I will be pulling boat's on Monday . I thought Charly had us . Packed up my truck full of guns and ammo and only had room for me and the pup in the cab. Went to bed early , got up at 3am to haul ass inland and found out Charly had hooked into Punta Gorda . I opened a beer and poured Molly one in her bowl . My place is really low on the water , hope we get lucky again. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:57:08 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Where is Jim Cantore? This is the real question. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:58:44 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Where is Jim Cantore?  |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 5:58:54 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Of course it is… I’m surprised they didn’t say it was going to be historical category 6!! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted:
Of course it is… I’m surprised they didn’t say it was going to be historical category 6!! Ryan Maue isn’t an alarmist, if it were some weather channel douche saying it I wouldn’t have shared it. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:16:51 PM EDT
[#22]
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:20:15 PM EDT
[#23]
Peace river was already over its banks at Canoe Outpost last week. I was walking on dry land under my dock a just
over a month ago. Now it has 4 feet of water there now. Watching |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:21:27 PM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:23:46 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A long way out, and largely unreliable "phorecast". Still, the convergence the models are showing is concerning. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png Look up "Hurricane Phoenix".  https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2020/08/14/hurricane-phoenix-is-tampa-bays-devastating-worst-case-scenario/?outputType=amp |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:28:03 PM EDT
[#26]
There’s a secondary push of cold air moving south on Sunday.
The euro model suite says that frontal line is going to force the hurricane NEE. The Gfs suite says the front is not going to push far enough to pick up the storm and it will continue NNE. Tomorrow there should be a lot more upper air data imputed into both suites. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:53:56 PM EDT
[#27]
I went at 5:00 AM this morning to WaWa in Brandon to get non ethanol gas for my generator. Only one other vehicle there. I went by the same station a few hours later and it was backup to get into the station.
My wife stopped by a Publix mid morning and it was already crowded. Water was already picked over. My son said that everybody and their little brown dog was trying to get gas on the way home from work this afternoon. It will be a shitshow at any gas station, food store or Home Depot/Lowes this weekend. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:55:18 PM EDT
[#28]
What times does NOAA update tracks?
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Posted: 9/23/2022 6:56:37 PM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:01:02 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What times does NOAA update tracks? Every 6 hours at 11 and 5 And as it gets closer to landfall they will do intermediate ones at 2 and 8, but the track isn’t updated. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:01:40 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Look up "Hurricane Phoenix". https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2020/08/14/hurricane-phoenix-is-tampa-bays-devastating-worst-case-scenario/?outputType=amp Only been through a handful of Cat 1/2 'Canes. Oceanfront, or on a barrier island, and did not evacuate. You think "Jesus Christ, the wind can't blow any stronger or it rain any harder". An hour later the wind is even stronger and the sideways rain really hurts any exposed skin. Problem with an irregularly shaped shoreline, like Florida's Gulf coat, is that the hurricane driven storm surge has no place to go. Unlike the east coast of Florida which is straight as a ruler. The incoming waves there are not "trapped" and their energy dissipates north and south. If I were on the west coast of Florida I'd get ready ramp it up, or cut and run, depending on family situation. 'Cane season came late this year. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:12:39 PM EDT
[#32]
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:16:31 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Every 6 hours at 11 and 5 And as it gets closer to landfall they will do intermediate ones at 2 and 8, but the track isn’t updated. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What times does NOAA update tracks? Every 6 hours at 11 and 5 And as it gets closer to landfall they will do intermediate ones at 2 and 8, but the track isn’t updated. Thanks! I couldn’t Remember what it was. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:18:22 PM EDT
[#34]
The gas stations are a shit show in SWFL.
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:33:34 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wife sent me this from the Winter Haven Walmart. Water section. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/106468/received_1125745908374294_jpeg-2536655.JPG |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:46:43 PM EDT
[#36]
Just my luck, I'm about to fly down to Tampa for the week. If I have to evacuate inland, how jammed will the roads be and how early should I GTFO?
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Posted: 9/23/2022 7:54:29 PM EDT
[#37]
Right front quadrant right up the West coast...oof.
 I'd guess strong Cat 1, weak Cat 2. Cuba is gonna fuck with it quite a bit. Lotta rain, and coastal areas will have a good bit of flooding. Good luck down there. Most of these dudes are so thirsty with the third La Nina in a row that any wave coming off Africa is gonna be a Cat 5 mainland strike
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:19:01 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Right front quadrant right up the West coast...oof. I'd guess strong Cat 1, weak Cat 2. Cuba is gonna fuck with it quite a bit. Lotta rain, and coastal areas will have a good bit of flooding. Good luck down there. Most of these dudes are so thirsty with the third La Nina in a row that any wave coming off Africa is gonna be a Cat 5 mainland strike Jokes about a blind squirrel being right once a day aside - I don't think Cuba is going to impact this storm at all. The mountains are largely centered on the island, and this storm is just skipping across the tip where there's minimal altitude. If it follows this track it's a bit of a unicorn in that nothing will weaken or slow it down short of Florida. I don't see this one being a CAT 1 or weak CAT 2, but would love to be wrong. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:19:53 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That just blows my mind that people aren't already prepared. Must be great to live with no situational awareness and no preps. Hey now - you live in NOVA. Talk to me about bread and milk when there's 1/4" of snow on the ground!! 
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:21:54 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Every 6 hours at 11 and 5 And as it gets closer to landfall they will do intermediate ones at 2 and 8, but the track isn’t updated. They're already doing intermediates which is interesting. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:27:44 PM EDT
[#41]
the fact they are already doing intermediates is probably not a good sign.
but hopefully its not too bad |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:28:20 PM EDT
[#42]
Soooooo, I should buy a pallet of generators here in the panhandle are prepare to supply Tampa?
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:28:49 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People already panic buying water. Stopped at Publix on the way home and the water section was almost picked clean. Only had like 15, 1 gallon jugs of Publix water left. I suspect Home Depot and Lowe’s will be slammed this weekend with people buying plywood. Yep. Saw the same when picking up meds. People are already acting crazy. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:35:12 PM EDT
[#44]
North of Orlando. Not much worried about it...meh
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:45:17 PM EDT
[#45]
I wish I still lived in FL. I love hurricanes, there's something awesome about going outside in the eye of the hurricane.
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:48:02 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep. Saw the same when picking up meds. People are already acting crazy. Add another sighting in Largo..   Thankfully still have all our bottled water, and two aquatainers (I should check em while I am thinking about it.. ) |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:50:31 PM EDT
[#47]
The water grab is born out of ignorance. It is extremely rare for a municipal water system to go down.
If you are on a well system with no back up power I can understand. We have a low pressure artisan well with a booster pump. If power goes out we still have water but at a much lower flow. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 8:54:03 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wish I still lived in FL. I love hurricanes, there's something awesome about going outside in the eye of the hurricane. I am ready, just need to pick up more beer. Scanning sales and availability right now. |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 9:07:54 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The water grab is born out of ignorance. It is extremely rare for a municipal water system to go down. If you are on a well system with no back up power I can understand. We have a low pressure artisan well with a booster pump. If power goes out we still have water but at a much lower flow. SMH |
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Posted: 9/23/2022 9:09:42 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: SMH Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The water grab is born out of ignorance. It is extremely rare for a municipal water system to go down. If you are on a well system with no back up power I can understand. We have a low pressure artisan well with a booster pump. If power goes out we still have water but at a much lower flow. SMH Explain why you shake your head. |
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