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Posted: 9/24/2022 9:27:53 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How bad will the weather be for the Orlando area with the forecast we are getting? It may rain a lot and be breezy. Nothing to worry about |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 9:29:25 AM EDT
[#2]
Latest recon said it’s still disorganized and they had trouble finding the center of circulation.
Still moving westward and that’s why the models are shifting westward. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 9:29:36 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You'd expect lots of trees to fall and significant power outages but Hurricane Irma pruned the area already (depends highly on your utility / local situation) Orlando gets hit every year ...according to the forecast lol. Even this AM..there the projected eye....right on the mouse lol |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 9:30:40 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I live in close proximity to the poster you quoted. I’m not worried about us, I’m worried about my daughter in TPA. She’s probably going to be taking a road trip up my way. Right, we in the "wait and see" part of the storm track, currently out outside the "cone of death" here Wont know for sure till it crosses over Cuba on Mon/ Tues morning. The Euro models still have it curving more east, banking on the jetstream dip picking it up. Evac routes from Tampa area will be a nightmare, have her move early if possible |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 9:37:29 AM EDT
[#5]
I almost forgot, Mike suggests those in the cone video document your property now, for insurance.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 9:41:05 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Got a generator and an A/C unit? After that it's just booze. Lifelong cracker chiming in. Plywood/shutters, multiple gennies (backup) and enough fuel to feed them for a few weeks, multiple window A/C's (backup) then food and booze to last a couple weeks. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 9:49:33 AM EDT
[#7]
Nothing personal to you guys north of us but since getting hit in Cape Coral last time, I hope this one passes us by. I lost roof tiles and my lanai screens plus damage to the palm trees. We got off lucky at that but it still a major pita. No one would touch repairs for months and supplies were nonexistent locally even if you wanted to do it yourself.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 10:18:09 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lifelong cracker chiming in. Plywood/shutters, multiple gennies (backup) and enough fuel to feed them for a few weeks, multiple window A/C's (backup) then food and booze to last a couple weeks. I'll trade fresh okra, 2 cans of spam fir some whiskey with you...  |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 10:23:18 AM EDT
[#9]
 ..Prepare for the storm! Batten down the hatches!! |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 10:27:26 AM EDT
[#10]
From what I've seen, when the current center of the storm crosses the western longitudinal line of the tip of Jamaica (sometime Sunday afternoon) then we'll have a better idea of which model to be most concerned with. Currently the GFS has the storm heading to the Apalachicola area and the European model has it coming into Tampa Bay.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 10:43:28 AM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 9/24/2022 10:54:14 AM EDT
[#12]
The shopping panic has already started near St. Pete. My wife and I do our grocery shopping on Saturday morning around 8:00 to 8:30. Usually no cars in the parking lot at this time. Today we arrived, and the lot is darn near full. Most people exiting the store had cases of bottled water and Charmin. The adjacent gas station had vehicles in line stretching onto the road. Get into the store and people are grabbing cases of water and Charmin. We stuck to our weekly list with a few additions if power is compromised (shelf-stable snacks and some items to put on the smoker). Usually in and out in less than thirty minutes. Today it took an hour as the lines for checkout stretched to the rear of the store.
I have a pork picnic on the smoker and have already checked the accordion hurricane shutters, checked the propane tanks, and started putting loose items into the garage. Pulled pork sandwiches are pretty good. May smoke a roast for variety early next week. Smoked roast beef is also yummy. We do have refillable water containers for water we can use without boiling as a storm will likely lead to a boiled water advisory. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 10:54:18 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: From what I've seen, when the current center of the storm crosses the western longitudinal line of the tip of Jamaica (sometime Sunday afternoon) then we'll have a better idea of which model to be most concerned with. Currently the GFS has the storm heading to the Apalachicola area and the European model has it coming into Tampa Bay. Latest update…. Key Points ? 1. The track has been adjusted farther west. Landfall north of Tampa on Thursday. ? 2. Ian may be weakening as it makes its final landfall in Florida. ? Our Forecast ?A reconnaissance plane investigating Ian is having a very hard time finding a circulation center. Though Ian looks more impressive on satellite due to decreasing wind shear, it is taking its time organizing. We think that Ian will finally begin to strengthen later today as it moves into a more favorable environment. There is a definite trend in the latest model guidance in taking Ian farther up the Florida Peninsula for landfall. When a storm is moving nearly parallel to a coast, it is difficult to pinpoint where the center will cross the coast. It does appear that the threat to the lower Florida Peninsula is decreasing, while the threat to the area from Tampa Bay northward is increasing. We are now predicting the center to move inland about 70 miles north of Tampa Bay by noon on Thursday. Once inland, it should turn northward and track into Georgia, where it will steadily weaken to a tropical depression or a remnant low pressure area by next Saturday afternoon. As for intensity, we think that Ian will reach is peak intensity as it passes western Cuba on Tuesday morning. Once in the Gulf, Ian will be encountering increasing wind shear and an influx of dry air from the west prior to landfall. This will likely weaken Ian prior to landfall north of Tampa. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 11:00:35 AM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 9/24/2022 11:02:01 AM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 9/24/2022 11:12:46 AM EDT
[#16]
If any of you live W. of US19 in Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, etc ......you best be making some serious plans
Remember the "No Name" storm in '93 ???? |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 11:24:32 AM EDT
[#17]
I'm in North Pinellas, and can see the Gulf from my street corner. This one is making me nervous.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 11:25:39 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419958/114740_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_png-2537300.JPG Forecast strength has increased. Major hurricane (cat 3) just after passing Cuba now. Goody, more time over the water the more it will strengthen. ...and the bay is on the bad side with that track. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 11:30:19 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Remember the "No Name" storm in '93 ???? Yes! I remember that storm.. because I had to work all day in it, for the citizens of this county. What a  that bitch was! Winds were more fierce than most tropical storms.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 11:33:50 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Goody, more time over the water the more it will strengthen. ...and the bay is on the bad side with that track. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419958/114740_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_png-2537300.JPG Forecast strength has increased. Major hurricane (cat 3) just after passing Cuba now. Goody, more time over the water the more it will strengthen. ...and the bay is on the bad side with that track. Yep... and inland folks who don't know, keep in mind the potential for tornadoes spinning off the eastern side storm bands. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:11:19 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In Virginia, both hurricanes I went thru and two of the tropical storms ended up with one or more of the local cities issuing a boil water alert. It's fairly common depending on where the city gets its water from and how that water source gets impacted by the storm. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The water grab is born out of ignorance. It is extremely rare for a municipal water system to go down. If you are on a well system with no back up power I can understand. We have a low pressure artisan well with a booster pump. If power goes out we still have water but at a much lower flow. SMH Explain why you shake your head. I’m interested as well. If wide spread municple water went down anywhere other than the boonies (which is not where this usually happens) we got bigger shit to worry about than water and I’m not sitting around to deal with it. Stuart had an issue that year they got hit with two in a row but it basically crushed Stuart and many were on well. FPL is in their back yard and it was 2 weeks in some cases to restore power in the city. In Virginia, both hurricanes I went thru and two of the tropical storms ended up with one or more of the local cities issuing a boil water alert. It's fairly common depending on where the city gets its water from and how that water source gets impacted by the storm. I think we have a bit different setup here. I’ve been through more than I can remember and I don’t ever remember having that. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:12:51 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: From what I've seen, when the current center of the storm crosses the western longitudinal line of the tip of Jamaica (sometime Sunday afternoon) then we'll have a better idea of which model to be most concerned with. Currently the GFS has the storm heading to the Apalachicola area and the European model has it coming into Tampa Bay. Power companies are positioning assets in northern gulf of Florida |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:14:14 PM EDT
[#23]
Look like this one may be another nightime storm for us in WCFl.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:15:19 PM EDT
[#24]
Orlando area here, full on gas panic going on near me and there's no propane tanks anywhere. Publix was very busy this am.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:17:24 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Look like this one may be another nightime storm for us in WCFl. I think it's going to make landfall smack in the middle of the Big Bend. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:22:38 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think it's going to make landfall smack in the middle of the Big Bend. Looks like it's shifting North, we'll have to see where it is tomorrow night |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:29:59 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think it's going to make landfall smack in the middle of the Big Bend. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Look like this one may be another nightime storm for us in WCFl. I think it's going to make landfall smack in the middle of the Big Bend. Can it not? I just spent 2 hours pulling and cleaning the carb plus a new NGK plug on my 2000w inverter generator to get it running smooth. Next up will be getting my solar generator stuff together and ready for service if needed for the freezer and refrigerator. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:41:27 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I almost forgot, Mike suggests those in the cone video document your property now, for insurance. What insurance? Myself and everyone else in FL without a brand new roof got canceled in the last two years. I have been trying to get a new roof for a while, but you cannot get a loan without insurance and you cannot get insurance without a new roof. At this point I pretty much have to either win the lotto or hope nothing happens while I save an extra $14k. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:48:56 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think it's going to make landfall smack in the middle of the Big Bend. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Look like this one may be another nightime storm for us in WCFl. I think it's going to make landfall smack in the middle of the Big Bend. All it has to do is hug the coast.... drawing in warm water, filling Tampa bay, and battering everything from Manatee Co. north with rain, wind, and tornados No power for 11 days after the last one ...... we had to chainsaw our way out of the neighborhood |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 12:59:02 PM EDT
[#30]
Trap shooting at Robinsons ranch, Levy county, on Wednesday morning should be fun.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 1:15:55 PM EDT
[#31]
lot's of road construction near me.
I wonder how those big orange barrel barricades fair in a hurricane... |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 1:44:15 PM EDT
[#32]
Like I mentioned earlier....if any of y'all need a floor to sleep on my friend has a few thousand square feet of unused office space you can crash on the floor at. Heck there is plenty of room in the hangar under the aircraft if push comes to shove.
We are just outside of Huntsville. Last time when Irma came through a friend ended almost this far north before she found a room. He is easy to bribe...just bring Guinness beer.  |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 1:54:25 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If any of you live W. of US19 in Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, etc ......you best be making some serious plans Remember the "No Name" storm in '93 ???? |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 1:55:55 PM EDT
[#34]
Gfs keeps pulling more west and is showing LA at this point. I think we are looking at a big bend to Tallahassee strike
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:12:04 PM EDT
[#35]
The best thing about Hurricanes is you get literally half a fucking year to prepare.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:14:59 PM EDT
[#36]
I have a cottage booked on Sanibel Island for next weekend. This better not get it cancelled. Fishing will fukin awesome just after a passing storm though.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:20:36 PM EDT
[#37]
Eyewall appears to be forming in the last few frames -
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:21:27 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I have a cottage booked on Sanibel Island for next weekend. This better not get it cancelled. Fishing will fukin awesome just after a passing storm though. Quote HistoryQuoted: I have a cottage booked on Sanibel Island for next weekend. This better not get it cancelled. Fishing will fukin awesome just after a passing storm though. The best thing about Hurricanes is you get literally half a fucking year to |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:22:57 PM EDT
[#39]
When the first track for landfall was showing south of Tampa with an eastward track towards Brevard (me) I was relieved as first predictions coming true is rarer than winning the lottery
The thing I hate most is trimming the large oak that would cause a lot of damage if it fell. I listen to people tell me it would never come down, too strong but as chief photographer of a Hurricane Andrew book 30 years ago I can assure you thick sails in a big oak on rain soaked ground can come down with tropical storm winds. I saw downed oaks as far away as 100 miles from Andrew's center in North Ft Lauderdale Trim the small branches let the wind pass through or it be comin down |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:26:53 PM EDT
[#40]
Daughter lives in Naples, full on panic since Thursday. She's all set and much better prepared than the last hurricane that hit Naples.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:29:38 PM EDT
[#41]
I was heading to our place in New Port Richey Saturday. Looks like it's going to be contingent on if we have electricity. 1 mile from the gulf but 18' elevation.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:39:59 PM EDT
[#42]
Looks like I may get to test my record of 14 days without power.
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:40:21 PM EDT
[#43]
With a hurricane like this. Does it normally roll up the coast of south Carolina?
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:47:20 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: With a hurricane like this. Does it normally roll up the coast of south Carolina? By the time it hits SC, it'll just be heavy winds and rain. Florida is the only place really under the gun right now. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:50:04 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Fuckin bring it ya bitch ass storm Nah, I'm going to shoot at the storm when it hits. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:54:43 PM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 9/24/2022 2:57:01 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: By the time it hits SC, it'll just be heavy winds and rain. Florida is the only place really under the gun right now. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 3:02:12 PM EDT
[#48]
Damn, the models just made a hard shift west
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Posted: 9/24/2022 3:03:15 PM EDT
[#49]
You do realize that a major Hurricane hitting just north of Tampa Bay is the worst case for Tampa/St Pete.
It exposes the Bay to the right side rotation that would push storm surge into the bay. It has been a while since I read the report on this, but recall it could totally cover St Pete under many feet of water as well as any low lying areas in the upper and lower Bay. That latest update does not look good if it stays on that track. |
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Posted: 9/24/2022 3:17:12 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Damn, the models just made a hard shift west Looks like the GFS has been right all along. It’s going to run the Yucatán passage. More upper air data is supposed to be in for the evening runs after 6pm tonight. |
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