Um, do I really need to tell you "yes, cancel?"

I'm on the west coast about 70 miles north of Tampa, bad thing for us that we already have a river that just fell below flood stage and our ground is saturated so it will take down tons of trees. It looks like is headed right at us on the last track.

I'm on the west coast about 70 miles north of Tampa, bad thing for us that we already have a river that just fell below flood stage and our ground is saturated so it will take down tons of trees. It looks like is headed right at us on the last track.

Just woke up to get ready for my night shift. I see the latest past from the hurricane hunters has a pressure down to 988. This is just starting its attack run through very favorable conditions. Anyone who is taking this lightly who is anywhere near the cone of uncertainty should rethink it. While the models will continual to shift, they always do, you may not get hit but someone will. In fact a lot of someones. For them it won't be hype.

Glad I got mine when I did, then.

They're probably gone already, but Direct Tools Outlets also stock generators...

No you won't. The airport will be closed and all flights cancelled. Regardless of where it comes ashore on the FL coast, it'll be big enough to shut down most of the airports.

I'd reschedule some time other that the heigth of the hurricane season.

Based on the timeline I’d bet your flight gets cancellled.

If you’re staying on Disney property you will be more than fine. Just booked the wife there. Last time park
Was open the day after

Lots of stores are out of water in Marion County already, including the Sam's Club, Walmarts, and Publii.  I always have at least a few cases on hand but wouldn't hurt to get more and it's kind of unnerving to know it's already gone.  Planning to WaterBob the tub too if it comes this way.

Man central Florida is ALLLLL kinda of panicked right now

I get tired of the hype too. It causes people to become less sensitive when they need to pay attention.
That being said I've been here my whole life, and this is the worst setup for a labor day storm that I've seen.
We can hope it doesn't happen and I do; but it looks extremely likely that some portion of the east coast of Florida is in for a world of hurt.
And I don't say that lightly.

I'm headed down to Key West Sunday for a adults only vacation with 2 other couples. I live in Clearwater. Wondering if I should stay back or come back early.

Howdy neighbor.

All the water is high around us. Retention ponds that don't normally hold water long are shallow lakes and have been for at least a year. We had record rainfall last year and I'm sure we are on track to match it. Flooding could be a big problem.

On the current path Clearwater will get hit worse than Key West will.

Gainesville FL already reporting fuel shortages. I topped of around 7:30 and the gas station was packed. Wife hit Publix & Walmart yesterday for normal groceries. Coworkers said Publix was a madhouse today.

Key West may be a great place to evacuate if the storm track is north since it's likely to head north from there.
You should have a solid idea on a better track by Thursday night or Friday morning.
But travelling on Sunday may be a little late and cutting it too close.

Be safe brother.

We haven’t gotten any orders over here in Lee County......... yet.

WTNT45 KNHC 290239
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL052019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show
that the eye is becoming better defined.  Based on SFMR-observed
surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is
increased to 75 kt.  Dorian should remain in an environment of low
shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29
deg C for the next several days.  This should allow for Dorian to
intensify into a major hurricane.  The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model
output.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt.
Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days.  Later in the
forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic.  This
evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn
west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula.  The actual
track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the
western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame.  This is, of
course, subject to uncertainty.  The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and
corrected dynamical model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur.  Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 19.7N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  29/1200Z 21.0N  67.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  30/0000Z 22.9N  68.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  30/1200Z 24.5N  69.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  31/0000Z 25.7N  71.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  01/0000Z 27.0N  75.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  02/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 28.4N  81.8W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Up to 85mph winds now

Ugh.... not looking forward to this at all. Especially since I am bugging in this time (I pray this is not the wrong choice,  as this is my first year .. hell first months, in my new apartment ). At least surge here shouldn't be a problem.

Btw, not to push panic, but if you have critical prescriptions, might be worth trying to fill em early just in case.

And don't forget that wet ground makes it much easier for the wind to uproot trees. We found that out with Kate up here back in 1985. Hell of a mess with downed pines all over the roads. We had had a week of rain prior.

11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28
Location: 19.7°N 66.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

It's going to blow if this thing makes landfall at night.

Hurricane looks to be slightly north of Polk County if I'm looking at that correctly.

This thing also appears to be slowing down.

That's the most conservative chart.  This is the most likely:

I know, just like Charlie did. I was in Kissimmee at the time and the winds were a howling something fierce.

Thanks

it's been pretty steady at 13mph for more than 24hrs

I misread the chart earlier.

The current forecast tracks have to be wrong. I was once suddenly awoken by a screaming and drunk arfcommer on the zello channel at 4am during hurricane Matthew and was assured that the space coast is impervious to hurricanes.

I live in plantation. Gas available at the Mobile on Broward Blvd. Decent amount of people but lines not forming yet. Filled up my wife's truck and topped off the 5 5 gallon gas cans I have

Must have been MrHold.

Thank you for reminding me to go offline

was out earlier looking for walmart clearance items....

2 different walmarts - not very busy, flashlights were down, but there were plenty still there, as well as batteries.
water was still there, most of the cheap stuff was gone, there were several partial pallets of branded water left though.
milk and bread was plentiful

no lines at any gas stations, went to a wawa to fill up and I was like the 3rd vehicle filling up in a 20 station fueling area.

as far as the hurricane intensity, most models don't do the cat 5 like the hwrf does. most stay at about a cat 3

I don't think the hurricane's path will be so far south like the gefs ensemble model runs show. the ensemble is sort of the average of 21 different models, so it gets influenced by outliers

Attached File

I don't know. If any place would bust their butt to get things up and running it would be the mouse.  They have their own power generation and emergency crews.  And pockets deeper than the entire state of Fl.  It could be a kick ass way to ride it out while the rest of us experience "The Purge" outside the holy gates of mickey

@JestersRevenge

Thank you.

Meh.  Still chilling in Tampa

i know, right?!?!

remember to compensate for crosswinds.

Predicted to go right over my house.

This has been my go-to site for many years when it comes to good data and models and maps and shit.

So far it's looking like Brevard County is going to take a direct hit , family lives on Merritt Island so yes I am very concerned.

http://superscreamer.com/

the gulf is a fucking hot tub right now. holy shit if it makes it into the gulf, in the southern half of florida.

a guy was on the phone with me today, trying to schedule a day to come see a lawnmower i have for sale. he said saturday evening would be good, if i was free. i told him "other than fighting the hurricane, i was open". he said "what hurricane"? dude had no idea any weather was even out there. i'm betting he flakes, on coming over saturday evening.

Hope it heads a different direction seems like our area is on God's you suck list.

Walmart on 441/34th street (Gainesville) was out of water this evening.  Crowds weren't bad, but people are stocking up early.

stopped by the zepherhills walmart on the long ride home from the range to pick up odds and ends on my shopping list.  thought i would cruise by the water isle to see what the situation was like.  just as i walked up 3 employees were positioning a pallet of water in the middle of the isle.  it's was like flies on shit.  this all while the normal location was fully stocked.  i thought to myself i should probably get some more since things won't get any better until the storm blows over.  in the time it took me to walk to the front of the store to get a shopping cart and walk back the pallet had been stripped clean and the employees were already rolling out another pallet.  nothing spells "oh shit, this is really gonna happen" better than pallets of water being dropped in the middle of a walmart isle.

a few hours later i was hangin out with the gf while she was texting in a group chat with her fam all located in northern tampa.  from what she was saying every publix and walmart in this area has been gutted and they were asking me how much i had gotten earlier in the day and if i had any to spare i told her to tell them i picked up just enough for my dog needless to say her family consists of all new york transplants who've been living here for 5+ years.  ya know the type, they think their money can buy them out of any and all rough situations. they're probably freaking out because they won't be able to sip on their fuji water and they'll have to settle with "store brand"

That zulu time makes me think to much.

Some people do not look at news at all let alone weather shit.

edit never mind advisory... got times messed up

on imagery, the eye had disappeared a couple of hours ago, so it's likely in an eye wall replacement cycle right now

Guess who drove down to Lake Wales yesterday.