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Posted: 10/26/2022 6:13:15 PM EDT
I'm following the polls in some contested races. Feel free to post up polls when you see them published, doesn't matter from where. PredictIt, etc, is fine, too.
Yes, "polls". Democrats are frequently oversampled, and there are other methodology errors. Feel free to dive in and discuss any you take issue with. Individual polls day by day: Click To View Spoiler Polling Averages as of today: Arizona: Gov - Lake(R) +3.5, Senate - Masters(D) +0.3 updated 11/8 End of Day 11/7 - Lake(R) +2.4, Senate - Kelly(D) +0.6 updated 11/7 Click To View Spoiler Georgia: Senate - Walker(R) +0.6 updated 11/7 Click To View Spoiler Michigan: Gov - Whitmer(D) +1.0 updated 11/8 End of Day 11/7 Gov - Whitmer(D) +4.2 updated 11/5 Click To View Spoiler Nevada: Gov - Lombardo(R) +2.8, Senate - Laxalt(R) +3.4 updated 11/8 End of Day 11/7 - Gov - Lombardo(R) +2.3, Senate - Laxalt(R) +2.7 updated 11/7 Click To View Spoiler New Hampshire: Senate - Hassan(D) +1.4 updated 11/7 Click To View Spoiler North Carolina: Senate - Budd(R) +6.0 updated 11/7 Click To View Spoiler Ohio: Senate - Vance(R) +8.0 updated 11/7 Click To View Spoiler Oklahoma: Gov - Stitt +1(most recent poll, not average) updated 11/3 Click To View Spoiler Oregon: Gov - Kotek(D) +1.3 updated 11/4 Click To View Spoiler Pennsylvania: Senate: OZ(D) +0.1 updated 11/4 Click To View Spoiler Washington: Senate - Murray +4.3 updated 11/2 Click To View Spoiler Wisconsin: Gov - Michels(R) +0.6, Senate - Johnson(R) +3.3 updated 11/7 Click To View Spoiler US House of Reps Overview Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 10/26/2022 6:47:17 PM EDT
[#1]
Nate Silver's (lol) take on odds of each candidate winning. These are not polling averages.
He predicts a 54% chance democrats hold the senate.  |
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Posted: 10/27/2022 2:12:11 AM EDT
[#2]
There will be a lot of close races that go to a run off and democrats always win run offs.
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Posted: 10/27/2022 2:15:24 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There will be a lot of close races that go to a run off and democrats always win run offs. Not that many states use run offs. Georgia senate race may very well go to a run off. |
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Posted: 10/27/2022 2:41:50 AM EDT
[#4]
Going to be a lot of fraud. Across the country.
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Posted: 10/27/2022 3:22:05 AM EDT
[#5]
Holy shit! Drazan with a +2.4 spread
 A republican polling that well in Oregon practically unheard of 
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Posted: 10/27/2022 11:29:52 PM EDT
[#6]
A few polls out today. Georgia Senate RCP average flipped to Walker(R) +0.6
Some good polls for governor and senate in Nevada And PA a poll with Oz +3! Some Averages from today.  Polls from today(10/27) Click To View Spoiler Also, OP updated. |
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Posted: 10/27/2022 11:42:38 PM EDT
[#7]
538 has democrats with 52% chance of holding the senate today, down from 54% yesterday.
They also flipped to Walker(R-GA) with a 53% chance, from a 50-50(dem advantage) yesterday. Click To View Spoiler Betting markets are favoring republicans 
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Posted: 10/27/2022 11:43:54 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nate Silver's (lol) take on odds of each candidate winning. These are not polling averages. He predicts a 54% chance democrats hold the senate. https://i.imgur.com/s0Rben8.png |
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Posted: 10/27/2022 11:46:40 PM EDT
[#9]
That Oklahoma Governor polling data is surprising to me
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Posted: 10/28/2022 12:04:07 AM EDT
[#10]
In a world of truth, progressives lose unanimously and get sent to prison for crimes against humanity
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Posted: 10/28/2022 12:05:20 AM EDT
[#11]
Also, comrade Foreheadman can't string one coherent thought together. Not one.
And up. 
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Posted: 10/28/2022 5:07:06 PM EDT
[#12]
Poll out - Walker (R-GA) +3, brings his polling average up to +1.6.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html |
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Posted: 10/28/2022 5:23:55 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Holy shit! Drazan with a +2.4 spread A republican polling that well in Oregon practically unheard of  I pray there's still some remnants of sanity left in this State. Remaining cautiously optimistic. People are PISSED |
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Posted: 10/28/2022 5:27:20 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://i.postimg.cc/RZWwC9wS/fingers-crossed.gif I pray there's still some remnants of sanity left in this State. Remaining cautiously optimistic. People are PISSED Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Holy shit! Drazan with a +2.4 spread A republican polling that well in Oregon practically unheard of https://i.postimg.cc/RZWwC9wS/fingers-crossed.gif I pray there's still some remnants of sanity left in this State. Remaining cautiously optimistic. People are PISSED 
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Posted: 10/29/2022 11:28:24 PM EDT
[#15]
Just a couple polls out today.
A poll out of OH showing Vance (R) +5 making the average R +2.1 And two polls out of Washington, both in favor of the Democrat Patty Murray. One poll was D+6 by Triton, the other a D+1 by Trafalgar. Triton had a sample size of 506 Likely Voters, while Trafalgar had 1207 Likely Voters. Triton is a 538 C/D rated pollster, Trafalgar has an A- rating Take that for what you will, but considering Murray(D) won by 18 points last time, this may be worth watching to see if Tiffany Smiley(R) can giver her a run for her money.  RCP moved house seat CA9 and NM3 from the leans dem column to the toss up column, and NY25 from likely dem to the leans dem column. |
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Posted: 10/29/2022 11:31:37 PM EDT
[#16]
that would be awesome if cuntwell got dethroned.
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Posted: 10/29/2022 11:36:21 PM EDT
[#17]
I dont want to rain on anyone's parade but I live in WA and can just about assure you murray won't lose.
Do a search about Dino Rossi's campaign for govenor. |
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Posted: 10/29/2022 11:40:07 PM EDT
[#18]
Wait why do we care what Silver predicts again?
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Posted: 10/29/2022 11:46:17 PM EDT
[#19]
I would love to see Smiley kick Murray out of this state. If east side of Washington republicans all of them actually voted she would. But they don't.
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Posted: 10/29/2022 11:57:24 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wait why do we care what Silver predicts again? https://images.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/nate-1024x646.jpg I don't really care, and I don't take his numbers too seriously. I think he plays games with a lot of the data he uses in his models. I'm mostly posting his numbers for posterity, and since his modeling is contrasting with polling averages in some cases. I do like the pollster rating thing he does, as it is a good resource if you want to look closer at pollsters. He plays with these numbers too, I believe, by being selective over the polls that get "analyzed" by a particular pollster. I do not believe it is comprehensive by any means for an given pollster, but there are some more obscure ones on there too, and you can get an idea of how polished and accurate some of them are. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ But, I can stop referencing him if no one cares what some hack is forecasting. |
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Posted: 10/30/2022 12:16:28 AM EDT
[#21]
I doubt Smiley can win, King County will keep finding ballots so that Murray will win.
 But I am voting for Smiley anyhow |
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Posted: 10/30/2022 7:25:15 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I doubt Smiley can win, King County will keep finding ballots so that Murray will win. But I am voting for Smiley anyhow |
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Posted: 10/30/2022 7:38:50 AM EDT
[#23]
The country seems to like the misery it's going through with numbers like that...
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Posted: 10/30/2022 7:49:59 AM EDT
[#24]
One note of caution about Trafalgar.
They are an odd case, they accurately predicted races in the past that other pollsters had wrong. But at the same time, below that top line accuracy, they missed badly on the demographic breakdowns vs actual results. So essentially they got the right answer but the 'work' was wrong. It makes me question if they're lucky or good. |
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Posted: 10/30/2022 7:56:25 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I doubt Smiley can win, King County will keep finding ballots so that Murray will win. But I am voting for Smiley anyhow Have no fear, the democrats will win. Washington has a long history of Democrat cheating. They’ll get the votes they need, no matter what. Never forget Dino Rossi. They stole the shit out of that election. |
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Posted: 10/30/2022 8:07:27 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I doubt Smiley can win, King County will keep finding ballots so that Murray will win. But I am voting for Smiley anyhow King County government is .... special. I learned this firsthand many years ago. I was working for a national document storage company, and they were a large customer. They wanted to break contract and stopped paying. For over a year, they would periodically reach out to us, demanding we return their boxes. It would get forwarded to me as I was assigned to handle the closure request. I'd tell them we'd happily coordinate a quick and smooth transfer of the boxes to themselves or their new vendor - once they paid their outstanding balance and the relevant fees/costs per their contract. They would get pissy and their lawyer would send a nasty letter, which I'd forward to our legal, who would send them a letter back with the exact same details and dollar amounts that I had provided. Took over a year for them to finally suck it up and agree to pay. That year cost them close to $100k more than if they had just listened when they first reached out - not to mention what their lawyers charged them. |
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Posted: 10/30/2022 8:21:12 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I doubt Smiley can win, King County will keep finding ballots so that Murray will win. But I am voting for Smiley anyhow Smiley is running some effective commercials and the Murray people are obviously concerned. I see Smiley signs here in the suburbs - not Murray ones. I'll be dropping my vote for Smiley in the box this week. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 8:57:42 AM EDT
[#28]
NYT/Sienna just dropped some senate polls. I don't know about there methodology but they're not good.
Fester +5%? The polls was also taken last Monday through Wednesday so only one day was post debate. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:07:01 AM EDT
[#29]
That's probably a poll of NYT employees.
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:08:38 AM EDT
[#30]
dominion don't care about your puny polls, or your puny poles
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:09:42 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Smiley is running some effective commercials and the Murray people are obviously concerned. I see Smiley signs here in the suburbs - not Murray ones. I'll be dropping my vote for Smiley in the box this week. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I doubt Smiley can win, King County will keep finding ballots so that Murray will win. But I am voting for Smiley anyhow Smiley is running some effective commercials and the Murray people are obviously concerned. I see Smiley signs here in the suburbs - not Murray ones. I'll be dropping my vote for Smiley in the box this week. A Red wave doesn't take WA. That would take an end of Universe cataclysm. Woketard runs way too deep in the NW. They think Romney is an ultra right fascist up there. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:11:11 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That Oklahoma Governor polling data is surprising to me not surprising at all, with $20 million in out-of-state dark money (Soros money) supporting that leftist puta comunista Joy Hoffmeister dominion (debold) is setting Oklahoma up for our first stolen election with Hoffmeister They're playing up "oh the scandals" without naming any actual scandals, and harping "he's just too much like Drumpf" right along with the bullshit butt-monkey line "i used to be a repugnican, butttt" |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:17:30 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: NYT/Sienna just dropped some senate polls. I don't know about there methodology but they're not good. Fester +5%? The polls was also taken last Monday through Wednesday so only one day was post debate. They're usually a somewhat reasonable pollster if you subtract ~2% from the Dem. So take that 5% Fetterman lead, slice of a few percent for it straddling the debate kaboom, and a few more for them Dem bias, and it's about tied. Seems about right. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:19:55 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That Oklahoma Governor polling data is surprising to me Not surprising to those who live here. Stitt is as swampy as they come. Just do a search on all the investigations into him and the shit he is involved in. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:26:52 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wait why do we care what Silver predicts again? https://images.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/nate-1024x646.jpg |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:30:05 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They're usually a somewhat reasonable pollster if you subtract ~2% from the Dem. So take that 5% Fetterman lead, slice of a few percent for it straddling the debate kaboom, and a few more for them Dem bias, and it's about tied. Seems about right. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: NYT/Sienna just dropped some senate polls. I don't know about there methodology but they're not good. Fester +5%? The polls was also taken last Monday through Wednesday so only one day was post debate. They're usually a somewhat reasonable pollster if you subtract ~2% from the Dem. So take that 5% Fetterman lead, slice of a few percent for it straddling the debate kaboom, and a few more for them Dem bias, and it's about tied. Seems about right. Eh  Attached Filehttps://nitter.it/ArthurSchwartz/status/1587056902613225473#m |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:37:03 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: dominion don't care about your puny polls, or your puny poles Yet your confidence in your grifter "DA DOMINIONZ" talking point is so weak, that you will not bet with me on the outcome next week. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:39:34 AM EDT
[#38]
Murray is in trouble. There has been a funding push to her campaign because of how much trouble she's in.
The polls we've been fed most of the year have been largely bullshit contrived through statistical trickery like sampling postgraduate degree holders at multiple times their actual numbers in the population, etc. I think we see at least 250 seats in the house, and at least 53 senate seats. I think Masters, Walker, Laxalt, and Oz win. Bolduc in NH is my dark horse bet. It's close there, far closer than anyone would have believed. If that happens 54. If Murray goes down then you can expect DC to react like it's the end of days. I laid in bets back in summer when the polls were utter fantasy and got some pretty good odds. I'm going to double my money easily on some races and triple it on some others. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:42:57 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Going to be a lot of fraud. Across the country. Yup, vote printer be like: 
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:45:48 AM EDT
[#40]
There are legit undecideds still left and by in large the undecideds are not breaking for democrats. That is a huge problem for the democrats.
Some of my predictions based on what I've observed so far...it'll be fun to see if I'm right. Expect to see lower black turnout for democrats. Higher black turnout for Republicans. Lower hispanic turnout for democrat. Record hispanic turnout for Republicans. High levels of turnout from working class. College educated white women are going to break harder for Republicans than in prior elections. Expect white women to get yelled at by the media just like they did in 2016. None of these are good for democrat prospects. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 9:53:13 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryAnd yet you won't take my open bet either. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:03:31 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And yet you won't take my open bet either. Curious how tolerant this site is of voter depression efforts. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:06:26 AM EDT
[#43]
Just remember, according to some of the mouthbreathers here, YeR vOtE dUn'T mAtTeR!!11!
I can't wait to hear what the excuses are going to be after Republicans take the House, Senate, and get big governorship wins. They'll probably switch gears to, "The Republicans never do anything when they're in control anyway!" I'm already seeing some of that posted. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:21:17 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Curious how tolerant this site is of voter depression efforts. Indeed. The CoC forbids advocacy against the 2nd Amendment and trashing gun companies and companies that support the 2nd Amendment, but openly advocating for democrats or suppressing the vote (which in turn harms the 2nd Amendment) is a-OK. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:22:13 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just remember, according to some of the mouthbreathers here, YeR vOtE dUn'T mAtTeR!!11! I can't wait to hear what the excuses are going to be after Republicans take the House, Senate, and get big governorship wins. They'll probably switch gears to, "The Republicans never do anything when they're in control anyway!" I'm already seeing some of that posted. You are correct. The Qtarded trash can't let go of their copium. When they lose their "DUR DOMINONZ" talking point, they will just move the goal posts to some other dumb. It's like talking to a flat-earther. Deep down inside, none of them believe what they are posting. If they did, they would take my open bet on the outcome of the House election next week. So far, not a single taker. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:26:30 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryThey were off in 2020, were quite accurate in 2018, missed again 2016, and had a good record before that. Average all that out and I think my ~2% left hedge is pretty reasonable. |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:31:01 AM EDT
[#47]
I can't believe MI is going to reelect Whitmer after all of her rules-for-thee bullshit.
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:32:11 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You are correct. The Qtarded trash can't let go of their copium. When they lose their "DUR DOMINONZ" talking point, they will just move the goal posts to some other dumb. It's like talking to a flat-earther. Deep down inside, none of them believe what they are posting. If they did, they would take my open bet on the outcome of the House election next week. So far, not a single taker. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Just remember, according to some of the mouthbreathers here, YeR vOtE dUn'T mAtTeR!!11! I can't wait to hear what the excuses are going to be after Republicans take the House, Senate, and get big governorship wins. They'll probably switch gears to, "The Republicans never do anything when they're in control anyway!" I'm already seeing some of that posted. You are correct. The Qtarded trash can't let go of their copium. When they lose their "DUR DOMINONZ" talking point, they will just move the goal posts to some other dumb. It's like talking to a flat-earther. Deep down inside, none of them believe what they are posting. If they did, they would take my open bet on the outcome of the House election next week. So far, not a single taker. Not surprised. Have seen others post the same. Never any takers from the "skeptics". |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:32:21 AM EDT
[#49]
and dominion still don't care
that's all that will come out of this |
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Posted: 10/31/2022 10:42:04 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: not surprising at all, with $20 million in out-of-state dark money (Soros money) supporting that leftist puta comunista Joy Hoffmeister dominion (debold) is setting Oklahoma up for our first stolen election with Hoffmeister They're playing up "oh the scandals" without naming any actual scandals, and harping "he's just too much like Drumpf" right along with the bullshit butt-monkey line "i used to be a repugnican, butttt" Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That Oklahoma Governor polling data is surprising to me not surprising at all, with $20 million in out-of-state dark money (Soros money) supporting that leftist puta comunista Joy Hoffmeister dominion (debold) is setting Oklahoma up for our first stolen election with Hoffmeister They're playing up "oh the scandals" without naming any actual scandals, and harping "he's just too much like Drumpf" right along with the bullshit butt-monkey line "i used to be a repugnican, butttt" Diebold's Premier Election Solutions hasn't existed since 2009 when they were sold to ES&S who then sold all their election system assets to Dominion. (I should know, I worked at Diebold when the company divested itself of the voting division, which I did not work for). Also, Oklahoma doesn't use Dominion systems for voting: https://oklahoma.gov/elections/security-integrity/voting-devices.html They use Hart InterCivic eScan A/T machines.
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