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Posted: 11/1/2022 3:18:23 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is why voting early, unless you have a legit need, is stupid. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Blake Masters is about to get a bump in the polls. The Libertarian dropped out and endorsed Masters. NYT Article (Paywall). Tip! Hit refresh and then stop right away to read the article. “I found Blake to be generally supportive of the Live and Let Live Global Peace Movement,” Mr. Victor said in a statement. “After that discussion, I believe it is in the best interests of freedom and peace to withdraw my candidacy and enthusiastically support Blake Masters for United States Senate.” Unfortunately too late for the mail ballots to be changed. I dunno about in person ballots….. This is why voting early, unless you have a legit need, is stupid. Goes both ways. I once lost the ability to vote in the primary election because I waited until election day and a friend called me early that day and needed me to come get him and his truck out of state because he had an injury. I don't favor early voting being legal, but if its available I'm probably going to take advantage of it most of the time. I know that I am not going to change my mind later and want to vote democrat. |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 3:22:43 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You see that county all the way on the left...just the tip...we've got our shit locked down. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Virginia 2021 Vote totals on the EVVVVIIIIIILLLLLLL Machines: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa1ed2e3be565caaa608d38a9374cc0fd26ebda1ef0a35a3d1f95af970bcc41b.png Virginia 2021 Vote totals from the mail-in paper ballots: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5bf36e2bc011a4afde762f8911fb926ce18a3392309b3d13e32494fc6d6149bc.png You see that county all the way on the left...just the tip...we've got our shit locked down. Lynchburg went blue for the first time in like 40 years because of mail in ballots. |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 3:23:46 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: NYT/Sienna just dropped some senate polls. I don't know about there methodology but they're not good. Fester +5%? The polls was also taken last Monday through Wednesday so only one day was post debate. No way Uncle Fester is winning. Shapiro is another thing, but Fetterman is toast. |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 3:30:57 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As he SHOULD be. Look at all the attack ads against Vance. I find myself thinking, "Yeah, but Ryan is even worse than you claim Vance to be..." for EVERY ONE of them. He's such a damn mess all he has is to try to look like a centrist, when his history paints him as anything but a centrist. I honestly don't like Vance all that much, but Ryan makes voting for him easy. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Vance is kicking the crap out of Tim Ryan. DNC pulled their advertising for him last week. He spent the rest of the week whining about it. As he SHOULD be. Look at all the attack ads against Vance. I find myself thinking, "Yeah, but Ryan is even worse than you claim Vance to be..." for EVERY ONE of them. He's such a damn mess all he has is to try to look like a centrist, when his history paints him as anything but a centrist. I honestly don't like Vance all that much, but Ryan makes voting for him easy. Yep. I didn't have any strong preference in the primary, and would have preferred Mike Gibbons given Rand endorsed him but, Tim Ryan is a steaming pile. |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 4:52:37 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My dark horse in NH appears to be gaining ground. If Bolduc pulls it off I'll triple my money. |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 5:34:29 PM EDT
[#6]
One poll for AZ Senate, +4 Kelly(D) from Univision. Brings Kelly's(D) average up to +2.5.
Two Polls for AZ Governor, +2 Lake(R) from Univision. Tie from NYT/Siena. Brings Lake's(R) Average down to 3.0 from 3.8 One poll from Michigan by AmGreatness/InsiderAdvantage, Tied. Brings Whitmer's(D) average down from +4.2 to +3.6. One Poll for Nevada Senate from USA Today, shows +1 Cortex Masto(D), bringing Laxalt's(R) average down to +0.4 Two polls for Nevada Governor. One Lombardo(R) +4 from NYT/Siena, the other shows a tie from USA Today. This brings Lombardo's(R) average up from 1.3 to 1.5 One poll in New Hampshire Senate race from St. Anselm shows Bolduc(R) +1, This brings Hassan's(D) average down to +2.3 from +3.6. One poll from Pennsylvania show OZ(R) and Fetterman(D) Tied, from Morning call. This brings Fetterman's(D) average down from 1.5 to 1.2. Two polls from NY Gov race. One from Hill/Emerson shows Hochul(D) +9, the other shows at tie Between Hochul(D) and Zeldin(R), by Trafalgar. The average in this race is Hochul(D) +4.8 |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 5:37:10 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No way Uncle Fester is winning. Shapiro is another thing, but Fetterman is toast. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: NYT/Sienna just dropped some senate polls. I don't know about there methodology but they're not good. Fester +5%? The polls was also taken last Monday through Wednesday so only one day was post debate. No way Uncle Fester is winning. Shapiro is another thing, but Fetterman is toast. I hope so. Fraud is a big factor in Pennsylvania. |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 5:37:55 PM EDT
[#8]
That Muhlenberg College on for PA is strange.
Mastriano down 14, Oz tied. No fucking way you get that many people voting split tickets |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 7:08:58 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is why voting early, unless you have a legit need, is stupid. I’m not in disagreement with that statement, I have taken advantage of early ballots for a decade or more, mainly because when I was overseas I applied for it and never changed it back. It is hella convenient. However, I would be OK with in person only, provided both arms are dipped up the elbows in 30 day permanent ink after voting. 
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Posted: 11/1/2022 9:41:07 PM EDT
[#10]
I don't know how reliable Trafalgar Group is, but this is their latest OR poll.
Majority of participants identified as dem, Drazan at 41.7% . Margin of error at 2.9% and confidence 95%. Screenshots from pdf on my phone  Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 11/1/2022 10:18:35 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know how reliable Trafalgar Group is, but this is their latest OR poll. Majority of participants identified as dem, Drazan at 41.7% . Margin of error at 2.9% and confidence 95%. Screenshots from pdf on my phone https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183516_Drive_jpg-2584687.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183542_Drive_jpg-2584688.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183601_Drive_jpg-2584689.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183618_Drive_jpg-2584690.JPG Trafalgar has a pretty good track record in my experience. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 9:39:25 AM EDT
[#12]
A Washington Senate poll came in last night, Murray(D)+2 by AmGreatness/InsiderAdvantage. This Brings Murray's(D) average from +5.0 down to +4.3.
Kansas Governor race poll came in from The Hill/Emerson. Kelly(D) +3, last poll was taken in September Kelly(D)+2. Laura Kelly(D) is the incumbent, challenged by Derek Schmidt(R). There is not enough data for an average, but if more polling comes in I will start tracking this race in the OP. Just an FYI for Kansas, the republican senate candidate, and incumbent, Jerry Moran(R) just had this same poll come in +21, from The Hill/Emerson. A Fox News poll(jointly conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)) published for Wisconsin Senate shows Ron Johnson(R) +2. This brings his average down from +3.3 to +3.0 The same poll has Wisconsin Governor race going Michels(R)+1, bringing Incumbent Tony Evers(D) average down from +0.5 to +0.2. Arizona Senate has a poll out from Fox News, Mark Kelly(D) +1. This brings Kelly's(D) average down to +2.3 from +2.5 Arizona Governor has a poll out from Fox News, Lake(R) +1. This brings Lake's(R) average down to 2.8 from 3.0 Nevada Senate has two polls out, one from Susquehanna Laxalt(R) +5, the other from The Hill/Emerson Laxalt(R) +5. This brings Laxalt's(R) average up from +0.4 to +1.9! Nevada Governor has a poll out from Susquehanna, Lombardo(R) +2. This maintains Lombardo's(R) average at +1.5. For some reason the Hill/Emerson didn't poll this race in their NV Poll. It looks like a Cygnal Michigan Governor poll was revised down from +7 Whitmer(D) to +6 Whitmer(D), changing her average from +3.6 down to +3.4. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 9:47:42 AM EDT
[#13]
I'm thinking the Walker/Warnock race is going to be close.
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Posted: 11/2/2022 10:11:08 AM EDT
[#14]
538(Nate Silver) now has a 52% chance of republicans taking the Senate. On 10/27 he had a 52% chance democrats hold.
Remember democrat hold only requires 50 seats, while republican control requires 51 seats. 538 Click To View Spoiler Predictit is relatively unchanged in outcomes, though odds have changed some. Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 10:22:09 AM EDT
[#15]
yOuR vOtE dOn'T mAtTeR!!11! mUh DoMiNiOnZ!!11!1!
Daniel Horowitz: The coming state legislative tsunami: Will Republicans capitalize on it? At present, Republicans hold 23 trifectas (governorship and both chambers of the legislature), Democratic hold 14, and in 13 states there is divided government. Here is the graphic presentation from Ballotpedia:  That is already substantial GOP power that has consistently been underutilized. Also, Republicans have 28 governors while Democrats only have 22. They control both chambers of the legislature in 29 states, with supermajorities (veto-proof) in 16 of those states, as compared to Democrats, who only control eight state legislatures with supermajorities. Republicans have 32 state Senate chambers to Democrats’ 18, and they have 30 state Houses to Democrats’ 18 (Nebraska has no lower House, and Alaska’s House is under shared control). ... In other words, it’s almost guaranteed they will have more than 30 governorships, with a chance of collecting 35-37 if they run the table. More specifically, by winning the governorships in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Kansas, they automatically would earn four more trifectas, because they already have strong control of those legislative bodies. Also, most analysists believe that Republicans already had a chance to capture the Minnesota House (they currently control the Senate and are only four shy in the House), so now that Scott Jensen appears to be even with the Democrat for governor (and the Republican running for attorney general is ahead of incumbent Democrat Keith Ellison), there is a shocking chance for a GOP trifecta in Minnesota. ... Thus, in a wave scenario, Democrats could potentially be reduced to 9 or 10 trifectas, essentially the West Coast, Hawaii, Illinois, and only some of the Northeastern states. And even at that, they are poised to lose seats in nearly all of those states. Republicans could wind up with 31 trifectas, 35 governors, and 34 states with both chambers of the legislature. Next year, Kentucky and Louisiana hold statewide elections, and it’s hard to see how Republicans don’t pick up the governorships along with supermajority legislative control. It’s also conceivable for the GOP to add to its supermajority status among the trifectas Republicans already control, such as in Montana, Florida, South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Texas, which often has ramifications for passing constitutional amendments and ballot referendums. Plenty more at the link. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 10:24:38 AM EDT
[#16]
The NYT/Sienna poll fucked Predictit's odds for most of yesterday...which I saw as a buying opportunity. I put a few more bucks down on the AZ senate race.
Nate Silver and Cohn have been off by at least 5 points in swing states in every election since 2016. Always overstating democrat performance. Their models are bullshit and we're about to get another big lesson on that in a week...so watch them start to norm their numbers as we get closer to the election to try and salvage some level of credibility. This is polling as propaganda, not as measurement. They are looking to boost fundraising and volunteering for democrat causes and campaigns. They know their polls are dogshit. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 10:26:36 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm thinking the Walker/Warnock race is going to be close. Closer than I'd like, but I think Walker comes out at least 4 points over. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 10:31:45 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Closer than I'd like, but I think Walker comes out at least 4 points over. From your lips to God's ears... I think you're right but like PA/MI races fraud in several populous counties will tell the tale. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 10:33:46 AM EDT
[#19]
Waiting for a GOP house and senate and hope GOP at 56 for senate.
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Posted: 11/2/2022 10:35:26 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know how reliable Trafalgar Group is, but this is their latest OR poll. Majority of participants identified as dem, Drazan at 41.7% . Margin of error at 2.9% and confidence 95%. Screenshots from pdf on my phone https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183516_Drive_jpg-2584687.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183542_Drive_jpg-2584688.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183601_Drive_jpg-2584689.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183618_Drive_jpg-2584690.JPG 538 used to have him rated a C, but had to eat crow and apologize, then bumped him up to A-. He was going on air and bitching about the 538 rating, IIRC. I still think that they under rate him, because they are considered 'partisan' for republicans. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 12:14:10 PM EDT
[#21]
Andrew Wilkow just mentioned on air that in New York, Joe Pinion is within 11%, according to an unnamed poll, of Chuck Schumer.
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Posted: 11/2/2022 2:10:59 PM EDT
[#22]
Wisconsin has an additional poll out, and a revised poll from earlier in the month. Previous polls I posted today were from Fox News, Senate -Johnson(R) +2, and Governor -Michels(R)+1.
Now two polls for senate, one from The Hill/Emerson - Johnson(R) +5. The other is from Marquette, and it is a revision from a poll from October 9th that was Johnson +6 now revised down to Johnson(R) +2. It was still in the average, this means the positive poll from The Hill/Emerson is negated by this revision. Johnson's(R) average stays at +3.0. Two polls for Wisconsin Governor. The same polling outfits as the senate race. The Hill/Emerson has Michels(R) +1. The Marquette revision in this race had Evers(D) at +1, now shows a tie. This Brings Michels(R) into the lead with +0.2, from an Evers(D) lead with +0.2. A bunch of Biden approval polls came out, with the lowest showing 37% approval and +17 dissatisfaction. Click To View Spoiler Also a poll showing Trump is still on top by quite a bit for the Republican 2024 nomination, though his lead has narrowed by about 12 points  
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Posted: 11/2/2022 2:20:02 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Andrew Wilkow just mentioned on air that in New York, Joe Pinion is within 11%, according to an unnamed poll, of Chuck Schumer. That was the Trafalgar poll from October 31. Schumer isn't going anywhere, but for governor, that same poll has Hochul(D) and Zeldin(R) tied. That would be something. |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 2:49:28 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I find Trafalgar to be pretty good. He(Cahaly) tries to overcome bias(favoring democrats) by tweaking sample demographics and methods. He can still get it wrong, though. 538 used to have him rated a C, but had to eat crow and apologize, then bumped him up to A-. He was going on air and bitching about the 538 rating, IIRC. I still think that they under rate him, because they are considered 'partisan' for republicans. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I don't know how reliable Trafalgar Group is, but this is their latest OR poll. Majority of participants identified as dem, Drazan at 41.7% . Margin of error at 2.9% and confidence 95%. Screenshots from pdf on my phone https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183516_Drive_jpg-2584687.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183542_Drive_jpg-2584688.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183601_Drive_jpg-2584689.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/504436/SmartSelect_20221101_183618_Drive_jpg-2584690.JPG 538 used to have him rated a C, but had to eat crow and apologize, then bumped him up to A-. He was going on air and bitching about the 538 rating, IIRC. I still think that they under rate him, because they are considered 'partisan' for republicans.
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Posted: 11/2/2022 3:06:27 PM EDT
[#25]
Quoted: I hope RCP is correct about this. With all of the dirty tricks this years governor race here in MI. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/155342/Capture1_PNG-2583848.JPG Quoted:
My dark horse in NH appears to be gaining ground. If Bolduc pulls it off I'll triple my money. I was looking at the RCP weighted averages "adjusted poll average", that nikroft posted, and the RCP projections. The margins are still razor thin in a lot of cases, and the adjusted averages still have dems up in some, even though their predictions show a GOP pickup. They have 4 GOP senate pickups, up from 3 pickups: GA(which they predict a runoff), AZ, NV, and now have added New Hampshire! The Arizona race worries me, even though the race is in basically every poll's margin of error, I haven't seen Masters(R) up in a single poll. Hopefully the information Eroic posted on the last page about the Libertarian candidate dropping out actually manifests in a boost of support. Click To View Spoiler They also have +5 GOP Governor pickups, net of +3(Expected to lose MA, and MD). Pickups for Gov: NV, OR, KS, WI, and MI. Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 3:09:04 PM EDT
[#26]
Of course this is a theoretical in a fair election.
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Posted: 11/2/2022 3:18:15 PM EDT
[#27]
I didn’t realize Trump was running against Desantis in the midterms. When did this happen?
 Attached File |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 3:22:25 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I didn't realize Trump was running against Desantis in the midterms. When did this happen? /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/dont_believe_you_anchorman_zps267e5cbb_GIF-108.gif Biden isn't running either. The title doesn't say Only midterm poll tracking.  |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 3:39:37 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I didn’t realize Trump was running against Desantis in the midterms. When did this happen? /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/dont_believe_you_anchorman_zps267e5cbb_GIF-108.gif The same time we started to believe Rs would do shit if they get majority. The fact they have 0 intentions of giving FJB peach mints says they give 0 fucks about the country or rule of law. Can't wait for the GD circle jerk on the 8-9th |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 4:06:38 PM EDT
[#30]
PA senate poll just released, by USA Today/Suffolk. I can't actually find the polling data yet, link from RCP does not show it.
Fetterman(D)+2, brings his average down to Fetterman(D) +1.0. Margin of Error 4.4. According to the date range on RCP, this poll was taken entirely after the debate. 
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Posted: 11/2/2022 4:15:52 PM EDT
[#31]
Another PA Senate poll, this one by Susquehanna, also taken entirely after the debate. Smaller MoE and larger sample size. Oz(R) +1, this brings Fetterman's(D) average down to +0.6.
According to poll data, 4% are still undecided.   |
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Posted: 11/2/2022 5:57:45 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That was the Trafalgar poll from October 31. Schumer isn't going anywhere, but for governor, that same poll has Hochul(D) and Zeldin(R) tied. That would be something. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Andrew Wilkow just mentioned on air that in New York, Joe Pinion is within 11%, according to an unnamed poll, of Chuck Schumer. That was the Trafalgar poll from October 31. Schumer isn't going anywhere, but for governor, that same poll has Hochul(D) and Zeldin(R) tied. That would be something. If everyone voted party line down ticket, that could see Schumer unseated. I would add that party line voting does seem to be increasingly common so never say never! 
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Posted: 11/2/2022 9:21:28 PM EDT
[#33]
North Carolina Senate, Budd(R)+5, average +4.6 up from +4.5
Ohio Senate, Vance(R) +5, average +2.2 up from 2.1 New York Governor, Hochul(D) +12, average +6.2 Georgia Senate, Walker(R) +1 Fox News, average +1.5 up from 1.4 A third poll for PA Senate today, Fetterman(D) +4 Fox News, average +0.4 down from +0.6. This poll was taken entirely after the debate. A Fetterman +5 polled dropped off of the average, which is why his average actually decreased. Colorado Senate, Bennet(D) +2 Trafalgar, average +6.2. |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 8:16:04 AM EDT
[#34]
Great thread, @RoccoOnFire ! Thank you for consolidating and updating the polls. You’re going to be busier than a one legged man in a butt kicking contest for next 5 days. A handful of new polls just dropped.
Colorado is in play! Go Vote! |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 8:21:37 AM EDT
[#35]
we should have a senate map prediction thread. I'd start it in here, but I don't want to derail this
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Posted: 11/3/2022 8:37:02 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If everyone voted party line down ticket, that could see Schumer unseated. I would add that party line voting does seem to be increasingly common so never say never! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Andrew Wilkow just mentioned on air that in New York, Joe Pinion is within 11%, according to an unnamed poll, of Chuck Schumer. That was the Trafalgar poll from October 31. Schumer isn't going anywhere, but for governor, that same poll has Hochul(D) and Zeldin(R) tied. That would be something. If everyone voted party line down ticket, that could see Schumer unseated. I would add that party line voting does seem to be increasingly common so never say never!
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Posted: 11/3/2022 8:56:11 AM EDT
[#37]
https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Post-Your-Senate-Predictions-Maps-/5-2598353/
created a new thread for people to post their senate predictions maps |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 9:15:40 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Great thread, @RoccoOnFire ! Thank you for consolidating and updating the polls. You're going to be busier than a one legged man in a butt kicking contest for next 5 days. A handful of new polls just dropped. Colorado is in play! Go Vote! You're welcome! I actually use the screen shots in the OP a bunch when trying to figure out what is going on, I hope they are helpful to others. Yes, the polls are really rolling in now. Much actual work will not be done the next few days.
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Posted: 11/3/2022 9:19:56 AM EDT
[#39]
Quoted: we should have a senate map prediction thread. I'd start it in here, but I don't want to derail this Quoted: https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Post-Your-Senate-Predictions-Maps-/5-2598353/ created a new thread for people to post their senate predictions maps Very conservative map. I hope you're wrong, no offense. I share your concern about AZ, though. |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 9:26:38 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If everyone voted party line down ticket, that could see Schumer unseated. I would add that party line voting does seem to be increasingly common so never say never! I would argue that he is among the most secure seats in the country. Honestly, most people in NY never even hear the name of his opponents. I couldn't tell you without looking it up who is running against him. |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 9:49:34 AM EDT
[#41]
Morning polls, mostly good.
PA Senate, OZ(R)+1 The Hill/Emerson, 1000LV, brings Fetterman(D) average to +0.2 down from +0.4. NH Senate, Bolduc(R)+1 Trafalgar, 1241LV, brings Hassan(D) average to +0.5 down from +2.3!!! MI Governor, Whitmer(D)+5 Emerson, 900LV, brings Whitmer(D) average to 3.6 up from 3.4 The missing governor data from the The Hill/Emerson poll yesterday with Laxalt +5 finally posted. NV Gov, Lombardo(R) +4, 2000LV, brings Lombardo(R) average to 1.8 up from 1.5. |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 10:59:07 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Chucky is the ultimate retail politician. He spreads enough wealth around that he stays in power. He is whatever he needs to be to get elected. I would argue that he is among the most secure seats in the country. Honestly, most people in NY never even hear the name of his opponents. I couldn't tell you without looking it up who is running against him. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: If everyone voted party line down ticket, that could see Schumer unseated. I would add that party line voting does seem to be increasingly common so never say never! I would argue that he is among the most secure seats in the country. Honestly, most people in NY never even hear the name of his opponents. I couldn't tell you without looking it up who is running against him. Yep. You're not wrong. If by some miracle he were unseated, it would definitely be amazing. Like you said the fact Pinion is even being named in public venues is notable enough. |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 11:43:00 AM EDT
[#43]
That Cygnal poll out of Michigan has been revised for the second time. First it was Whitmer(D) +7, then Whitmer +6, Now it is Whitmer +4. Her average is back to Whitmer(D) +3.4.
 Oklahoma Governor, Stitt(R)+1 KOCO(Amber Integrated). Wisconsin Senate, Johnson(R) +2 Spectrum/Siena, 655 LV, brings Johnson(R) average to +3.2 up from 3.0 Wisconsin Governor, Evers(D) +2 Spectrum/Siena, 655LV, Michels(R) average stays +0.2. A CNN Evers(D) +2 poll fell out of the average. 538 Nate Silver has changed his prediction to 54% chance republicans take the senate. Click To View Spoiler PredictIt Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 11:50:23 AM EDT
[#44]
Talk about splitting the ticket.
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Posted: 11/3/2022 12:01:46 PM EDT
[#45]
so, we believe polls when they're in our favor or?
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Posted: 11/3/2022 12:04:14 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: North Carolina Senate, Budd(R)+5, average +4.6 up from +4.5 Ohio Senate, Vance(R) +5, average +2.2 up from 2.1 New York Governor, Hochul(D) +12, average +6.2 Georgia Senate, Walker(R) +1 Fox News, average +1.5 up from 1.4 A third poll for PA Senate today, Fetterman(D) +4 Fox News, average +0.4 down from +0.6. This poll was taken entirely after the debate. A Fetterman +5 polled dropped off of the average, which is why his average actually decreased. Colorado Senate, Bennet(D) +2 Trafalgar, average +6.2. why is everyone saying that Zeldin is leading or close to it and may win if Hochul is up 12? |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 2:37:46 PM EDT
[#47]
Two more Georgia polls
GA Senate, Walker(R) +4 Remington Research, 1150LV. 4% still undecided GA Senate, Warnock(D)+2 The Hill/Emerson, 1000LV. Walker's(R) average +1.3 down from +1.5 Oz takes the lead in PA averages PA Senate, Oz(R) +3 Remington Research, 1180LV, 5% undecided. Oz's average +0.3 up from Fetterman(D)+0.2 Arizona Governor, Lake(R) +3 Remington Research, 1075LV, Lake(R) average +2.7 down from +2.8 Arizona Senate, Kelly(D) +1 Remington Research, 1075LV, Kelly(D) average +2.2 down from +2.3 polls show 5% undecided for governor and 3% undecided for senate Ohio Senate, Vance(R) +5 Remington Research, 1125LV, Vance(R) average +3.3 up from 2.2 North Carolina, Budd(R) +7 Remington Research, 1140LV, Budd(R) average +5.0 up from +4.6 |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 4:57:43 PM EDT
[#48]
New Hampshire has a poll from UMass Lowell(YouGov Online Survey) with dates ranging 10/14-10/25. It's already old, so it isn't factored into the average.
NH Senate, Hassan(D) +10, 600LV, MoE 5.1%. Average is still Bolduc(R) +0.3 Another GA Senate, Warnock +6 WXIA/SurveyUSA, 1171LV, 3.7 MoE, Walker(R) average +0.5 down from +1.3 Another Arizona poll AZ Governor, Lake +3, Fox10/InsiderAdvantage,, 550LV, 4.2MoE, Lake(R) +1.8 down from 2.7. A Lake(R) +11 poll, from the same pollster, was knocked out of the average, which is why it went down. AZ Senate, TIE Fox10/InsiderAdvantage, 550LV, 4.2MoE, Kelly(D) average +2 down from +2.2 |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 8:57:36 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: New Hampshire has a poll from UMass Lowell(YouGov Online Survey) with dates ranging 10/14-10/25. It's already old, so it isn't factored into the average. NH Senate, Hassan(D) +10, 600LV, MoE 5.1%. Average is still Bolduc(R) +0.3 Another GA Senate, Warnock +6 WXIA/SurveyUSA, 1171LV, 3.7 MoE, Walker(R) average +0.5 down from +1.3 Another Arizona poll AZ Governor, Lake +3, Fox10/InsiderAdvantage,, 550LV, 4.2MoE, Lake(R) +1.8 down from 2.7. A Lake(R) +11 poll, from the same pollster, was knocked out of the average, which is why it went down. AZ Senate, TIE Fox10/InsiderAdvantage, 550LV, 4.2MoE, Kelly(D) average +2 down from +2.2 Don't sweat the latest +6 Warnock poll. Their methodology is the outlier. Look at their last poll compared to the surrounding dates. It was 8-10 points higher for Warnock than the others. It's total BS.  Attached File |
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Posted: 11/3/2022 10:09:21 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: so, we believe polls when they're in our favor or? Whatever happens. The losing side is gonna scream fraud. Whether its dems or repubs. |
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