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Posted: 11/7/2022 3:56:26 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: dominion don't care about your puny polls, or your puny poles Please stop spreading cynicism. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 3:57:14 PM EDT
[#2]
I think Walker will take this one by a small margin……. Kemp should smoke hungry hungry hippo
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Posted: 11/7/2022 3:57:16 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just remember, according to some of the mouthbreathers here, YeR vOtE dUn'T mAtTeR!!11! I can't wait to hear what the excuses are going to be after Republicans take the House, Senate, and get big governorship wins. They'll probably switch gears to, "The Republicans never do anything when they're in control anyway!" I'm already seeing some of that posted. Damn, I wish you weren't spot on. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 3:58:32 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think Walker will take this one by a small margin……. Kemp should smoke hungry hungry hippo ALL of my neighbors are liberals, heck 99% of the folks ITP are liberals. I can't FUCKING WAIT to enjoy their delicious tears! Also, they all HATE fireworks. I'm considering getting a shit load of the loudest, most annoying fireworks I can find to light off when the results are announced, lol. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:03:07 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ALL of my neighbors are liberals, heck 99% of the folks ITP are liberals. I can't FUCKING WAIT to enjoy their delicious tears! Also, they all HATE fireworks. I'm considering getting a shit load of the loudest, most annoying fireworks I can find to light off when the results are announced, lol. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I think Walker will take this one by a small margin……. Kemp should smoke hungry hungry hippo ALL of my neighbors are liberals, heck 99% of the folks ITP are liberals. I can't FUCKING WAIT to enjoy their delicious tears! Also, they all HATE fireworks. I'm considering getting a shit load of the loudest, most annoying fireworks I can find to light off when the results are announced, lol. Do it! And post pics |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:11:04 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:16:18 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If that happens i assume that means a dem bloodbath? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted:
Yup, an epic ass kicking that will scare the shit out of them. Especially since 2024 has an unfavorable map for them. Anything 52+ pretty much means they are locked out of the senate until 2026 at the earliest. That being said, I think 54 is a bridge too far. My guess is 51 +/- 1, with 49 and 53 being the edges of the envelope. Olsen is one of WaPo's handful of token conservative columnists. I'd have been shocked if his take wasn't at or past the rightward edge of the probable outcomes. This is not an 'official' prediction endorsed by the whole organization. I wouldn't get excited and think that even WaPo thinks the Dems are about to get curb stomped. (Though if that happens the butthurt from the will be awesome). |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:19:53 PM EDT
[#8]
The only thing that gets my ass about GA voting- Raffensberger. Everyone knows he's a corrupt piece of shit. But 51% for re-election.
Doesn't even have to do a run-off. How convenient. Like they want to keep him around for something. Untarnished. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:22:38 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ALL of my neighbors are liberals, heck 99% of the folks ITP are liberals. I can't FUCKING WAIT to enjoy their delicious tears! Also, they all HATE fireworks. I'm considering getting a shit load of the loudest, most annoying fireworks I can find to light off when the results are announced, lol. OTP is where it's at. I thought I'd miss all the swanky bars and restaurants in Midtown. Its been 14 years and I bet I haven't even thought about ITP in over a decade. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:23:09 PM EDT
[#10]
Three more GA Senate Polls
Walker(R) +2 InsiderAdvantage 550LV, 4.2MoE Walker(R) +3 Trafalgar 1103LV, 2.9MoE Tie East Carolina U 1077LV, 3.5 MoE Walker's(R) Average now +0.6, up from +0.4 |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:37:23 PM EDT
[#11]
NC Senate Budd(R) +6 Trafalgar. Average now +5.6 up from +5.2.
If any of you see a prediction/forecast from any news outlet, post a screencap here for posterity. Midday temperature check from others 538 Nate's model at 55% republicans take at least 51 seats. Click To View Spoiler PredictIt Click To View Spoiler Real Clear Politics Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:43:11 PM EDT
[#12]
Quoted:
I'd like to see that happen. Screen capped for posterity Click To View Spoiler Quoted: @Rocco - thanks for the updates. Much appreciated!  |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:55:36 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Going to be a lot of fraud. Across the country. You know it. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 4:58:51 PM EDT
[#14]
I didn't realized when I posted it. Last night the PredictIt screen cap had Arizona Senate for republicans. The screenshot I just posted has it now flipped to democrats.
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:00:50 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I didn't realized when I posted it. Last night the PredictIt screen cap had Arizona Senate for republicans. The screenshot I just posted has it now flipped to democrats. That one has been dancing around 50/50 all morning. Been exploiting the churn on PI. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:02:40 PM EDT
[#16]
I've got my fingers crossed that NH goes red this time. We need to get these liberal fucksticks out of office.
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:06:37 PM EDT
[#17]
Look at this. This is the generic congressional ballot.
See which pollsters are consistently skewing the results. Politico just released a Dem+5  , not the first time either.Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:07:39 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've got my fingers crossed that NH goes red this time. We need to get these liberal fucksticks out of office. Hassan's average is 48.4%. Conventional wisdom states any incumbent below 50% is in real trouble. I think NH is one of those races that tell us how big the wave is. If Bolduc wins, the wave is high! @Going_Commando How does NH count ballots? Meaning, will be know tomorrow night? Or is it like PA and WI where we won't know for a week. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:09:03 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: OTP is where it's at. I thought I'd miss all the swanky bars and restaurants in Midtown. Its been 14 years and I bet I haven't even thought about ITP in over a decade. I'm getting close to making the move. All of my good friends ITP have either moved or died. 
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:23:03 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hassan's average is 48.4%. Conventional wisdom states any incumbent below 50% is in real trouble. I think NH is one of those races that tell us how big the wave is. If Bolduc wins, the wave is high! @Going_Commando How does NH count ballots? Meaning, will be know tomorrow night? Or is it like PA and WI where we won't know for a week. Those RCP pollster ratings say St. Anselm had polls within a 0.8 average in 2020 of actual results. #2 ranked state pollster, of all states. The last Anselm poll had Bolduc(R) +1 Trafalgar rated #1 multi state pollster of all pollsters from 2020 also has Bolduc(R) +1  They also happen to be the only 2 polls that have Bolduc(R) up.  Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:42:17 PM EDT
[#21]
Internal poll from Moore Information Group shows Washington Senate candidate Smiley(R) +0.4 over incumbent Murray(D).
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000184-4ffb-d3eb-adef-7ffb59730000 Will not move the average tracking because it is internal Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:48:07 PM EDT
[#22]
Oregon Governor poll, Kotek(D)+4, 1393LV, 3.0MoE. Kotek's(D) average now +1.3 up from a tie.
Poll from Data for Progress(D) Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 5:59:10 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oregon Governor poll, Kotek(D)+4, 1393LV, 3.0MoE. Kotek's(D) average now +1.3 up from a tie. Poll from Data for Progress(D) Click To View Spoiler 
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Posted: 11/7/2022 6:10:32 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think Walker will take this one by a small margin……. Kemp should smoke hungry hungry hippo Hopefully Hazel doesn't siphon too many votes away from Kemp like he did to Perdue in '20. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:00:24 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ALL of my neighbors are liberals, heck 99% of the folks ITP are liberals. I can't FUCKING WAIT to enjoy their delicious tears! Also, they all HATE fireworks. I'm considering getting a shit load of the loudest, most annoying fireworks I can find to light off when the results are announced, lol. 
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:04:13 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Look at this. This is the generic congressional ballot. See which pollsters are consistently skewing the results. Politico just released a Dem+5 , not the first time either.Click To View Spoiler Somebody needs to tell politico that you cant poll the same exact people each week. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:05:25 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hassan's average is 48.4%. Conventional wisdom states any incumbent below 50% is in real trouble. I think NH is one of those races that tell us how big the wave is. If Bolduc wins, the wave is high! @Going_Commando How does NH count ballots? Meaning, will be know tomorrow night? Or is it like PA and WI where we won't know for a week. I've seen some analyst say this same thing.. Watch NH it will be telling of whats going to happen elsewhere.. Their polls close at 7pm, I am not sure if they start counting immediately or not. Unfortunately my gut tells me it will still go D.. But If its CLOSE that could be a good sign for the rest.. maybe. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:08:44 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Internal poll from Moore Information Group shows Washington Senate candidate Smiley(R) +0.4 over incumbent Murray(D). https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000184-4ffb-d3eb-adef-7ffb59730000 Will not move the average tracking because it is internal Click To View Spoiler Being a lifetime resident here, I think that report is a little more optimistic than it should be. That being said, the fact that its even close speaks volumes.. (this state is HIGHLY infested with liberal/democrats now a days..) |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:44:14 PM EDT
[#29]
I haven't been tracking Florida, but the polling is killing it there for Rs, so I thought it worth including.
Desantis(R) +15. Average +12.1 Rubio(R) +12. Average +8.8 Click To View Spoiler NC Senate - Budd(R)+2 Data for Progress. Budd average +6.0 up from +5.2 Ohio Senate - Vance(R) +10 Data for Progress. Vance average +8.0 up from +7.5 WI Senate - Johnson(R) +6 Data for Progress/ 1504LV. 2.0MoE. Average Johnson(R) +3.3 up from 2.8 WI Gov - Michels(R) +2 Data for Progress. 1504LV. 2.0MoE. Average Michels(R) +0.6 up from +0.4 NV Senate - Laxalt(R) +2 Data for Progress, 1100LV, 3.0MoE. Average Laxalt +2.7 up from +2.4 NV Gov - Lombardo(R) +2 Data for Progress, 1100LV, 3.0MoE. Average Lombardo +2.3 down from +2.6 New Hampshire Senate - Hassan(D) +3 Data for Progress, 1995LV, 2.0MoE. Average Hassan +1.4, up from 1.0 Colorado Senate - Bennet(D) +7 Data for Progress, 1983LV, 2.0MoE. Average Bennet +5.7. The previous poll was from Trafalgar Bennet(D)+2 |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:53:50 PM EDT
[#30]
538 just made their traditional last second adjustment so that they can claim legitimacy. +3 for Team Red.
 Attached File |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:56:08 PM EDT
[#31]
538 getting a little jumpy. Moved to 58% from 55% chance R's take senate.
Flipped PA from Fetterman(D) 54% to Oz(R) 56% since my post 3 hours ago He considerably weakened Laxalt's(R) position from 57% to 51%. Click To View Spoiler PredictIt Steady. Still has AZ senate in the D camp. Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 7:57:12 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 538 just made their traditional last second adjustment so that they can claim legitimacy. +3 for Team Red. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/309598/2022-11-07_18-51-35_png-2591629.JPG  lol nice. I was thinking the same thing. I'm taking another screenshot before bed, too. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 8:00:41 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: lol nice. I was thinking the same thing. I'm taking another screenshot before bed, too. Can't wait to see the live action interview with Nate trying to explain how the R's came away with 250 House seats. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 8:05:08 PM EDT
[#34]
AZ senate Masters(R) +1
 , Data for Progress, 1359LV, 3.0MoE. Kelly(D) average +0.6 down from +1.0AZ Gov Lake(R) +4, Data for Progress, 1359LV, 3.0MoE. Lake(R) average +2.4 up from +1.8 |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 8:10:13 PM EDT
[#35]
5th GA poll out today
Senate - Walker(R) +1, Data for Progress, 1474LV, 3.0MoE. Walker's(R) average stays +0.6 |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 8:48:38 PM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 11/7/2022 9:03:27 PM EDT
[#37]
Nate said he is freezing his models at midnight, because some pollster copies his averages to be right.
 Also, I don't know if we are going to get an Iconic Nate picture like 2016, it looks like he shaved his head.  Podcast he released today. I listened to a few minutes. https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/republicans-are-favored-in-our-final-midterm-forecasts/ would not recommend |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 9:18:26 PM EDT
[#38]
PA senate has a poll from Patriot polling, Oz(R)+3. Poll is Registered Voters, which is considered less reliable than Likely Voters. This is not in RCP average. https://patriotpolling.com/patriot-polling/f/oz-leads-fetterman-by-3%25-in-pennsylvania-senate-race
Another PA senate not in the average from Research Co. has Oz(+1). This one 450 LV. Results reported rather dubiously. https://researchco.ca/2022/11/07/2022-midterm-uspoli/ |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 9:25:21 PM EDT
[#39]
Reading Wasserman on twitter and some other anecdotes, he's pretty much saying the pollsters, pundits, and even parties really don't know what is going to happen.
To the degree that some of the major pollsters aren't even releasing some of their final polls, because they have so little confidence in them. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 9:37:03 PM EDT
[#40]
Its going to be nuts if Kari Lake beats Katie Hobbs by a 10 point spread and Blake Masters still loses to Mark Kelly.
Who are these folks that love Mark Kelly so much? |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 10:52:50 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Its going to be nuts if Kari Lake beats Katie Hobbs by a 10 point spread and Blake Masters still loses to Mark Kelly. Who are these folks that love Mark Kelly so much? McCain "republican" nevertrumper types. Mitch McConnel doesn't want Masters in the senate and they'll do anything to stop populist voices from disrupting their little party. They've shown that repeatedly. None of the shenanigans pulled against Trump could have been done without the Senate's blessing. So here's my theory for what we're going to see tomorrow: We've already seen that Democrat early voting is well below what it was in the prior election, and absentee/mail-in voting is orders of magnitude smaller than before. Republican voters don't trust mail-in especially, and tend to turn out huge on election day proper. The margin for fraud is significantly reduced in some places (AZ), completely eliminated in others (FL), with PA being the only swing state where we're likely to see a possibility for significant result-altering fraud. I have a feeling when they talk about the election taking "days" to resolve, it's PA they are targeting hard. My best guess is that the polls...all of them...are understating Republican support. I expect to see 3 or more points higher real-world results than we see in the polls in many places. I think we see a minimum of 53 senate seats. I think 54 is a highly likely outcome. At least 31 governors. 250 house seats or more...probably more. Democrats are in serious trouble in places Biden "won" by double digits. That's how big the swing is and I don't think the polls truly capture it. Tomorrow night at this time we'll have a good indication of whether or not I'm right. We could be looking at the largest Republican legislative victory since before WWII. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 10:57:04 PM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 11/7/2022 11:11:54 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 11/7/2022 11:16:38 PM EDT
[#44]
The Big Steal Part 2 has begun.
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Posted: 11/7/2022 11:33:15 PM EDT
[#45]
 Attached FileIf you need a reminder...  Attached FileI'd definitely avoid walking next to any skyscrapers Tuesday night - Wednesday.  |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 11:38:06 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: shamelessly copied from elsewhere, I can't take credit: More interesting early voting info. GA total early voting (2.5 million so far), is up from 2018 (1.8 million) but down from 2020's 4 million. This is in person early and absentee combined. 2022 early voting has been 55.6% female, 29.2% black, 57.4% white. https://sos.ga.gov/data-hub... 2020 was 55.2% female, 56.5% white, 27.7% black https://electproject.github... In person is high, 2.3 million in 2022 vs 2.5 million in 2020. Mail in / absentee is way down, 220k accepted 2022 vs 1.32 million in 2020. Return rate is higher, and will go higher still as the postal service is struggling - especially in Atlanta metro. 77% 2022 return rate vs 74% in 2020. So high turnout so far in GA for a midterm, and women and black voters accounting for a higher share of the votes cast so far compared to 2020. Doesn't sound good. Hopefully there will be less fraud than 2020 to make up for that. |
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Posted: 11/7/2022 11:54:47 PM EDT
[#47]
PredictIt has flipped back to Master's(R) in favor in AZ, from having Kelly(D) up earlier
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Posted: 11/8/2022 1:13:45 AM EDT
[#48]
End of day 11/7 forecasts and averages.
RCP averages end of day 11/7 Senate  Governor  House  538 has 59% R's take senate. 230 R House seats. Click To View Spoiler PredictIt End of day 11/7 Click To View Spoiler RCP Prediction maps end of 11/7 Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 8:49:17 AM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 11/8/2022 8:52:47 AM EDT
[#50]
Democrats showing an edge in early ballot return rate in AZ, independents really lagging.
34.1% of mail in ballot requests were from Dems, 35.5% by republicans, 30.4% by independents Returns are running 38% D, 37.2% R, and 24.8% I. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/25/arizona-ballot-returns-midterm-2022-election-voting/10591778002/ Dem advantage was bigger though a week ago. Republican return rate has picked up. |
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