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User Panel
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Posted: 11/8/2022 10:38:11 AM EDT
[#1]
Trafalgar AZ Poll
Senate - Masters(R) +1, 1094LV, 2.9MoE. Lake(R) average now +3.5 up from the end of 11/7 average of +2.4 Gov - Lake +4, 1094LV, 2.9MoE. Masters(R) average now +0.3 flipped from the end of 11/7 average of Kelly(D) +0.6 I'm going to try and preserve the end of 11/7 data as a comparison to anything released today and onward. eta i guess this one posted at the end of day screenshot yesterday, I must have missed it. So this is last night averages. |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 10:43:46 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Nice, I like seeing the conformity. I wonder when the Emerson gets put into the rcp average |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 10:47:25 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Democrats showing an edge in early ballot return rate in AZ, independents really lagging. 34.1% of mail in ballot requests were from Dems, 35.5% by republicans, 30.4% by independents Returns are running 38% D, 37.2% R, and 24.8% I. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/25/arizona-ballot-returns-midterm-2022-election-voting/10591778002/ Dem advantage was bigger though a week ago. Republican return rate has picked up. Trafalgar party sampling from last poll  PredictIt from this morning. Swings back to AZ.  |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 11:59:23 AM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 11/8/2022 12:11:25 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryNice, I have to ask why DeWine is so popular. His polling average is +22.4. Also, Nevada Senate - Laxalt(R)+5 Trafalgar, 1089LV, 2.9MoE. Laxalt's(R) average now +3.4 up from +2.7 Nevada Gov - Lombardo(R)+3 Trafalgar, 1089, 2.9MoE. Lomardo's(R) average now +2.8 up from +2.3 |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 12:18:44 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nice, I have to ask why DeWine is so popular. His polling average is +22.4. Also, Nevada Senate - Laxalt(R)+5 Trafalgar, 1089LV, 2.9MoE. Laxalt's(R) average now +3.4 up from +2.7 Nevada Gov - Lombardo(R)+3 Trafalgar, 1089, 2.9MoE. Lomardo's(R) average now +2.8 up from +2.3 Quote HistoryQuoted: Nice, I have to ask why DeWine is so popular. His polling average is +22.4. Also, Nevada Senate - Laxalt(R)+5 Trafalgar, 1089LV, 2.9MoE. Laxalt's(R) average now +3.4 up from +2.7 Nevada Gov - Lombardo(R)+3 Trafalgar, 1089, 2.9MoE. Lomardo's(R) average now +2.8 up from +2.3 Who knows, it's Ohio. Remember, Ohio went for Kasich in the 2016 primary when he clearly stood no chance.  More seriously, he's a state fixture with a lot of name recognition. Then add into that the already massive handicap Democrats are running under. |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 12:20:53 PM EDT
[#7]
Michigan Governor - Tudor Dixon(
 )+1 Trafalgar, 1097LV, 2.9MoE. Bring's Whitmer's(D) average down to +1.0 from the end of 11/7 average of +4.2
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Posted: 11/8/2022 12:49:08 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Michigan Governor - Tudor Dixon( )+1 Trafalgar, 1097LV, 2.9MoE. Bring's Whitmer's(D) average down to +1.0 from the end of 11/7 average of +4.2https://i.imgur.com/59EK0EE.png I'd take that with a grain of salt, as those last polls bumped off three pretty recent (less than 2 weeks old) and neutrally funded polls that were in favor of Whitmer by 11, 9, and 5. 270 to win does last 5, which comes it at a 4% whitmer lead. The Cygnal tracking poll has shown Whitmer's support pretty stable at 50 or 51% ------------------------- unrelated to MI, the beatdown in Florida is shaping up to be spectacular. https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats 300k Republican lead in early voting. |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 1:17:50 PM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 11/8/2022 2:05:13 PM EDT
[#10]
I'm still sticking with my prediction that it's going to be a blowout for republicans.
However,, my Wife works the election, we are in a very liberal part of Chattanooga. They are having record turnout. It's more than the 2020 presidential turnout. |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 2:25:09 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm still sticking with my prediction that it's going to be a blowout for republicans. However,, my Wife works the election, we are in a very liberal part of Chattanooga. They are having record turnout. It's more than the 2020 presidential turnout. I just voted, in a pretty blue precinct, and the poll workers said turnout was high. Not sure what to make of it. |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 2:46:12 PM EDT
[#12]
NYT needles have no estimates yet.
Click To View Spoiler If you are hitting paywalls, I suggest you use this paywall blocker. It works for numerous sites. You'll have to manually install it. It is very easy. Here is the git with instructions https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-chrome-clean/-/tree/master THIS IS A DIRECT DOWNLOAD LINK below Click To View Spoiler Instructions Download and unzip Click To View Spoiler Then open extensions from the browser menu Click To View Spoiler Then enable developer tools and unpack the unzipped folder. Save and done. Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 4:51:04 PM EDT
[#13]
Yeah my first sense that 2020 would be… shifty was the NYT “not doing needles” email.
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Posted: 11/8/2022 4:57:14 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Also, comrade Foreheadman can't string one coherent thought together. Not one. And up.  When the voters are dumber than a Democrat stroke victim, it’s all clown shoes from here. |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 5:06:21 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: OTP is where it's at. I thought I'd miss all the swanky bars and restaurants in Midtown. Its been 14 years and I bet I haven't even thought about ITP in over a decade. Problem is ITP keeps coming to my part of way out OTP. No fuck you, stay in Buckhead, Vinnings, Midtown......Wallow in it! |
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Posted: 11/8/2022 5:12:35 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryVote for vote, that’s my ballot. Submitted at 12:45. ETA: in NY, polls have Lee Zeldin leading Hocul by a narrow margin. Those same Trafalgar polls have Zeldin losing against the disgrace that is Cuomo should that have been the matchup. Lefties in NY are fucking dumb. |
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Posted: 11/9/2022 9:47:54 AM EDT
[#17]
Well, this certainly turned out differently…
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Posted: 11/9/2022 9:51:32 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, this certainly turned out differently… We can totally trust the polls this time! |
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Posted: 11/10/2022 12:21:20 AM EDT
[#19]
Romney in a landslide
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