Always better to be on the bottom half of your pay band…. If you get an into the upper half, strive to get into the next higher pay band, so you fall back into the bottom half….  Welcome to large corporations

How much square footage was added in Phoenix over the last year or so?  Most cities have seen a huge investment in spec buildings over the last several years, and over a hundred million square feet in a major metro areas is coming online every year.  In the past that has gotten snapped up.  I wouldn't be surprised if areas outside Southern California see a slowdown too.

I wish we sold our Fontana building 2 years ago when we got an offer of $450 per square foot.

I was participating in a thread recently where a number of GDers, some of whom might be part of arf management, said the inflation we are experiencing was Trump's fault.  They just couldn't grok the possibility that more than $3 TRILLION in new printing in the last two years, plus the War On Energy by Brandon & co. could have anything to do with it.  The timing is just coincidental.  Nothing to see here.

This is fair warning that GD "experts", some of whom should know better, should be taken with a small grain of smokeless propellant.

Yep. We could have survived it by pumping our personal cash into it, which we have done to keep the fuel flowing, but it takes too long to come back out of it and that’s running used trucks. Scamdemic made them skyrocket in price and parts extremely scarce especially emissions parts. I wanted to shutdown by the fall of 2021 and was overruled by my wife because my FIL was holding on to his legacy. January 2022 came along and waiting on One Boxes for 2 trucks ($18k each on a nationwide back order) and me saying it’s getting colder and you know damn well repairs and emissions/parts will be worse finally sealed the deal when my wife called her dad while he was on vacation in FL and said here’s where we are. Sad day but it made economic sense and there is now no regrets on that decision at all. Unless you count the extremely hefty tax bill hitting all in one year instead of spreading it out over 2 years, fuck the IRS.

Meh, they are both to blame

I wonder if we know each other. seems familiar. Are you a boater?

Should would not qualify for the BOTD magical tits thread

It was Trumps fault, and Bidens, and Bush’s (1+2) and Reagan, and Carter, JOHNSTON, and Kennedy….and More-so, Every Congress…

In matters like this, it might be comforting to point fingers at the Alzheimerpotus, but the truth is, It’s the Voters.    We LOVE free shit.
Over 87% of Arfcommers (home of fiercely independent self made men).   Were gleefully in favor of Stimmy Checks. (And 20% of us, were disqualified from receiving them)    That SHOULD absolutely blow your mind.      Never, ever forget it.

Well Elon evidently "asked for & wants" Ms. WEF to Run Twitter...

Bigger_Hammer

It's bigger than Pedo Pedro but Pedo Pedro will be at the helm when the ship flounders beneath the waves.

It's the end of this fractional reserve banking system and the world knows it by divesting itself of Treasury Bonds & Bills.  I think Foxtrot08 is correct when he asserts that currencies will be asset backed (energy, minerals, tangibles produced by the issuing nation).  There are only two things backing the Federal Reserve Note:  (1) Military - we invade you if you stop taking it & (2) Full faith & credit of the US Government.  The former was applied to Iraq and Libya.  With our military weakened (thanks Pedo Pedro & Lloyd Austin) and the ignoble fight from Afghanistan, the fear of invasion has decreased.  As for the latter, declining workforce means less tax revenue.  We can barely service the debt yet alone pay the principle.  Instead, the government is monetizing the debt.  Foreign nations are getting tired of giving something (their trade goods) for nothing (federal reserve notes).

The wheels actually fell off in 2007/8 when the housing bust of 2007.  All those MBS and CDS destroyed the big financial institutions but with exception of Lehman Bros TARP and QE kept them afloat.  The big financial houses did nothing to make themselves more resilent but instead leveraged even further thanks to the infusion of "free money" from the Fed Res.  For the common man, he was a winner if he had equities or real property.  But it's fragile as bonds, equities and housing entered bubble territory.  Each infusion of monetary heroin was less effective than the last and now we approach the point where it doesn't work.

I expect all those bubbles to burst and because pension funds were driven from conservative investments to more risky investments (thank you Fed Res NIRP or ZIRP), that they too will fail leaving many Americans with nothing.  Satan Klaus (and his mother-WEFers) wasn't joking when he said you will own nut'n and you will be (un)happy.  Gregory Mannarino put it best when he said, "Be your own central bank."  Remember, it's not about "doom" but weiji with emphasis on the opportunity (and not on crisis).  

We have entered a paradigm change and it's not too late to mitigate and position yourself for weiji.

Obviously don’t take this as gospel, but there has been a fairly significant attempt to move away from Southern California from a strategic perspective by quite a few companies.

Government intervention to prevent small downturns ultimately produces big, nasty ones.  Just like a lack of small forest fires sets up the conditions for big forest fires.  

The economy was and is too encumbered by government regulation for the self correcting functions of the market to work.  Which is also why 2008 was so traumatic.

We had many recessions / depressions before 1929.  They are mostly forgotten because, in the absence of massive government intervention, the economy sorted itself out pretty quickly.

We agree completely.  But it's no coincidence that the MASSIVE printing under Biden and his War on Energy is principally responsible for the spike in inflation we are seeing right now.  Energy is woven into the core of every modern economy.  Declare war on energy, and you have declared war on modern economies.  Actions have consequences.

Also, if memory serves, Congress passes budgets.  I seem to recall reading that in a dusty old copy of the Constitution I own.

No, I don't own a boat.  Must be thinking of someone else.  

Yeah... did Musk actually want to do that?

If so, then

There is some truth to it.  The issue with the ports was one factor.  The legislative landscape is another.

Transportation is pricey though, so that's one thing holding many companies in the area.

OK, thanks. I still have questions on what this means. In a supply/demand economy doesn’t this mean there is a surplus of shippers that drive costs down? Or does it mean that there is less cargo to ship so everyone’s cutting their throats to last it out as long as possible?

My “man-on-the-street” analysis (based on what I see in stores and hear from shoppers I know) tells me that products are still getting to stores, but there are less of the products. There will be fewer “end of season” blowout sales because odds are it’ll all be sold.

Hate to be a dick, but it's founder not flounder.  I've even heard documentaries get that wrong.

Supply chain inventories are down as well.  They were really high there for awhile and that contributed to high demand for space.  Our operations are seeing lower inbound volumes, and space utilization has fallen.  Businesses that are able, are trying to get out of overflow, which was pretty normal these last few years.

April may always see a come back but most rates down 35% yoy and around 5k monthly closings.

Inflation causes people to purchase fewer products.

Fewer products purchased means less Revenue.

Less Revenue means mass layoffs.

Mass layoffs means Recession.

Recession means lower interest rates to lower monetary supply.

Lower interest rates means more investment.

More investment means more jobs.

More jobs means better economy...

Rinse and repeat

Perhaps she was red pulled like Musk was

Yes, to both questions.

Cost are driven down due to a surplus of shippers (because there is less cargo to ship). As economics demands equilibrium, the market will have to shed capacity to match the new demand. It’s a race to the bottom, how long can you stand the pain situation.

The “boom and bust” cycles are SOP in transportation, but they are generally seasonal or quarterly. You might lose some demand, but the conditions improve shortly there after.

But every once in a while, you get a no bullshit economic shift that really throws the supply and demand balance off.

His new WEF chairman CEO will just advise you to eat the bugs.

Lay offs = higher stock prices = Retired Boomers have more money to spend = higher/stubborn inflation

This is what I’m seeing in N Scottsdale luxury real estate

Yet there is an overabundance of empty retail space in Phoenix.

Speak for yourself.  I was dead set against stimulus checks.  It's the Boomers fault plain and simple.

My freight is specialized. If those guys are taking it in the shorts, I'd be surprised.

Quite intriguing that he says that about the WEF and hires one of its minions (and a vocal woke advocate) as the twitter CEO, isn't it?

Doom for US, boom for him!

2008 was only recognized by a few.  Comparatively speaking the dot.com was only a blip compared to what happened in 2008.  The worst recession by ranking that happened in the past 55 years besides 2008 was the recession of 1969-1970 which either many working today were not alive or most of these people have retired if they worked through it.

source though could be suspect: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-recessions-ranked-bad-downright-090000167.html

Due to the severity many remember and are now looking for the trends as they don't want to be in the position they were in 2008.  I would say many are small to medium business owners that got trashed back then and are able to look at all the data and compare the two.

Depends on how specialized. Power that had been previously shipping rubber dog shit from China can be reallocated if there is money to be made in a specialized service. Nobody really operates in an untouchable vacuum.

Where? Perhaps retail that’s outdated in crap areas. Drive thru’s are like hens teeth and spur bidding wars.

You're right.  Flounder is a fisch (fish).

When Reagan boosted interest rates, the goal was to shake out the poor performers.   The cost of borrowing became so high the only people who could afford to do so were the ones who were very profitable.  The others either had to endure massive shrinkage of their businesses or go bankrupt.  In the end a lot of inefficiencies got wrung out and operating costs dropped.  That controlled inflation and made it possible to jump start the economy.

We are probably overdue for this again.  It sucks to go through it but the alternative is for the economy to be perpetually moribund.   It's the most basic strength of a free market economy.    

Socialist pay to play economies have the poor performers propped up via special treatment by the government which is why those countries are always poor even if they start out wealthy like Argentina and Venezuela.   The poor performers just keep on performing poorly so long as they buy off enough politicians to keep bailing them out.

The interest rates should have been raised under Trump, the Fed acted too late so now we are stuck with out of control inflation or a recession we will live in for awhile.  Most of this is because when the interest rates went up so did the amount of money required to "finance" the national debt.  More money just evaporated into thin air...then the idiots running this clown show print more of it....

Phoenix is going to crash hard.  

It always does.  In 2008 home prices in Phoenix halved, when the rest of nation fell but not by nearly as much.  It’s the ultimate boom and bust location.

Go downtown around the campus.  There is a mall there and it is all but empty.  Another retail shopping area across from the Sun's.  Many empty spots.

I don't think they want their high ESG scoring companies to get wiped out this time.  "We will suffer for the greater good" or some other BS they come up with.

some of those are truly magical.

Love him or hate him, he's no dummy. If he hired a WEF big wheel, he has a plan. Maybe to expose them in a big way.

Either slated for redevelopment, destination based or obsolete but trust me, Thats definitely not the case around most of Maricopa co.

The retail that has value is still getting scooped up while the obsolete is slated to be leveled for build to suit. When rates correct, lending & building with rebound.The demand is there.

Rates are correct.  They were not correct before when they were being held artificially low.  That is why we have had massive inflation, etc.

Smart people make money during a recession.

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Budweiser did this.

Someone disagrees