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Posted: 5/12/2023 7:23:51 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When Reagan boosted interest rates, the goal was to shake out the poor performers. I suspect that rates were due to the policies of the peanut farmer Carter. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 7:24:09 PM EDT
[#2]
Construction seems to be slowing down around here. I work for a large equipment rental company, and we have way more equipment being returned than going out.
Our utilization rates are way down from where they should be as we come into the busy time of year. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 7:40:09 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was participating in a thread recently where a number of GDers, some of whom might be part of arf management, said the inflation we are experiencing was Trump's fault. They just couldn't grok the possibility that more than $3 TRILLION in new printing in the last two years, plus the War On Energy by Brandon & co. could have anything to do with it. The timing is just coincidental. Nothing to see here. This is fair warning that GD "experts", some of whom should know better, should be taken with a small grain of smokeless propellant. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The Economic Enema is already here, and it's name is Joe Biden. I was participating in a thread recently where a number of GDers, some of whom might be part of arf management, said the inflation we are experiencing was Trump's fault. They just couldn't grok the possibility that more than $3 TRILLION in new printing in the last two years, plus the War On Energy by Brandon & co. could have anything to do with it. The timing is just coincidental. Nothing to see here. This is fair warning that GD "experts", some of whom should know better, should be taken with a small grain of smokeless propellant. And Trump totally didn’t sign the CARES Act. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 7:49:51 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When Reagan boosted interest rates, the goal was to shake out the poor performers. The cost of borrowing became so high the only people who could afford to do so were the ones who were very profitable. The others either had to endure massive shrinkage of their businesses or go bankrupt. In the end a lot of inefficiencies got wrung out and operating costs dropped. That controlled inflation and made it possible to jump start the economy. We are probably overdue for this again. It sucks to go through it but the alternative is for the economy to be perpetually moribund. It's the most basic strength of a free market economy. Socialist pay to play economies have the poor performers propped up via special treatment by the government which is why those countries are always poor even if they start out wealthy like Argentina and Venezuela. The poor performers just keep on performing poorly so long as they buy off enough politicians to keep bailing them out. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Very likely. Recessions are not all bad. They clear out the dead wood. Prolonged periods of economic expansion result in inefficiencies. Companies can survive without being excellent. Employees can keep jobs without as much effort or skill. Resources get tied up in the hands of those who aren’t great at putting them to good use. A recession wrestles resources from the hands of poor-performers and reallocates them to those who will put them to more effective use. As a result the economy grows stronger, more resilient, and faster. It’s economic Darwinism in action. When Reagan boosted interest rates, the goal was to shake out the poor performers. The cost of borrowing became so high the only people who could afford to do so were the ones who were very profitable. The others either had to endure massive shrinkage of their businesses or go bankrupt. In the end a lot of inefficiencies got wrung out and operating costs dropped. That controlled inflation and made it possible to jump start the economy. We are probably overdue for this again. It sucks to go through it but the alternative is for the economy to be perpetually moribund. It's the most basic strength of a free market economy. Socialist pay to play economies have the poor performers propped up via special treatment by the government which is why those countries are always poor even if they start out wealthy like Argentina and Venezuela. The poor performers just keep on performing poorly so long as they buy off enough politicians to keep bailing them out. Reagan didn’t raise rates. Volcker did. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 7:57:38 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Reagan didn’t raise rates. Volcker did. Correct. And who re-appointed Volcker as Fed Chair in 1983? Reagan did. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:01:01 PM EDT
[#6]
When China makes its move on Taiwan, things are really going to get spicy.
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:04:04 PM EDT
[#7]
bitchin'.
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:07:27 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And Trump totally didn’t sign the CARES Act. He did. And it breathed some life into a tanking economy due to covid. Printing has a price, but it can have a positive effect, too. Look at the mortgage-backed securities debacle in 2008-09. The Fed printed then, too. Should they not have? This isn't an excuse for excess printing, but the Fed has one blunt-force object to achieve its goals of keeping inflation in check and the economy growing with minimal unemployment - printing/not printing. That's all they have. You always neglect my point of the War on Energy and its effects on inflation. One must wonder why you do that. You see, affordable energy is the most important factor in a modern economy. When Brandon declared war on energy, it was a signal that inflation was going to surge no matter the cost to Americans. And he followed through on his promise. And inflation surged as a result. And the Fed responded the only way they could - by raising rates and restricting money supply. How about you address that point? You must not know anyone in the trucking industry. Ask them what their biggest cost is. Ask them when the spike occurred. Go ahead, we'll wait. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:11:25 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So what does an economic enema do exactly? The market wants gainz. To get big gainz you gotta eat big. If you eat too big you can get constipated. When the economy gets constipated you gotta give it an enema to flush out the shit. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:12:58 PM EDT
[#10]
Hey Yakarina…
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:21:57 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He did. And it breathed some life into a tanking economy due to covid. Printing has a price, but it can have a positive effect, too. Look at the mortgage-backed securities debacle in 2008-09. The Fed printed then, too. Should they not have? This isn't an excuse for excess printing, but the Fed has one blunt-force object to achieve its goals of keeping inflation in check and the economy growing with minimal unemployment - printing/not printing. That's all they have. You always neglect my point of the War on Energy and its effects on inflation. One must wonder why you do that. You see, affordable energy is the most important factor in a modern economy. When Brandon declared war on energy, it was a signal that inflation was going to surge no matter the cost to Americans. And he followed through on his promise. And inflation surged as a result. And the Fed responded the only way they could - by raising rates and restricting money supply. How about you address that point? You must not know anyone in the trucking industry. Ask them what their biggest cost is. Ask them when the spike occurred. Go ahead, we'll wait. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And Trump totally didn’t sign the CARES Act. He did. And it breathed some life into a tanking economy due to covid. Printing has a price, but it can have a positive effect, too. Look at the mortgage-backed securities debacle in 2008-09. The Fed printed then, too. Should they not have? This isn't an excuse for excess printing, but the Fed has one blunt-force object to achieve its goals of keeping inflation in check and the economy growing with minimal unemployment - printing/not printing. That's all they have. You always neglect my point of the War on Energy and its effects on inflation. One must wonder why you do that. You see, affordable energy is the most important factor in a modern economy. When Brandon declared war on energy, it was a signal that inflation was going to surge no matter the cost to Americans. And he followed through on his promise. And inflation surged as a result. And the Fed responded the only way they could - by raising rates and restricting money supply. How about you address that point? You must not know anyone in the trucking industry. Ask them what their biggest cost is. Ask them when the spike occurred. Go ahead, we'll wait. I couldn’t remember so I looked up (DOE National Averages) Jan 22 - $3.16 Mar 22 - $4.10 Mar 22 - $5.25 Jun 22 - $5.81 (peak) Current - $3.92 |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:26:57 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So much information, I'm totally overloaded...  |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:33:16 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is this just domestic? International freight costs seem incredibly high. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Logistics companies (first to know) have been seeing it for a while. Yep. Regional freight was $3-$3.50/mile and now it’s $1.50-$1.75/mile. No regrets on selling our trucks and trailers. Looking just like 2008 all over again. Our insurance rep just talked with one of his customers that’s O/O and he bought his truck 6 months ago for $250,000 and will be lucky to get $150,000 for it, he was looking to get out because of freight prices. It’s a classic freight shakeout phase. Who can survive until capacity begins to match demand. The amount of equipment parked right now would surprise most folks. Is this just domestic? International freight costs seem incredibly high. False to a degree. Our intl freight is down bigly. We hit 1/3 the pandemic pricing and over the last 2 weeks fell another 20%. Other thing to look at is availability of planes - we can get freight on next day. Before we were shipping land across countries to maybe catch a flight a week later |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:37:04 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Correct. And who re-appointed Volcker as Fed Chair in 1983? Reagan did. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Reagan didn’t raise rates. Volcker did. Correct. And who re-appointed Volcker as Fed Chair in 1983? Reagan did. And when did Volcker hold his emergency meeting because the dimwits in DC were being dimwits. 1979. Reagan wasn’t even the formal candidate then. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:48:02 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The Economic Enema is already here, and it's name is Joe Biden. I figure him being the Exlax dose. The full payload is yet to be seen. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:48:17 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I heard it's going to be like 2008 times 1.007470119521912.  You are funny. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:49:36 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And when did Volcker hold his emergency meeting because the dimwits in DC were being dimwits. 1979. Reagan wasn’t even the formal candidate then. ??? Reagan declared in 1979 and won in 1980. He rewarded Volcker with a second term because he thought Volcker had done a good job at taming inflation. Which he did. True fact: I bought my first house in the early 80s, under Reagan, when mortgage interest was 12%. You probably weren't born yet. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:51:16 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He did. And it breathed some life into a tanking economy due to covid. Printing has a price, but it can have a positive effect, too. Look at the mortgage-backed securities debacle in 2008-09. The Fed printed then, too. Should they not have? This isn't an excuse for excess printing, but the Fed has one blunt-force object to achieve its goals of keeping inflation in check and the economy growing with minimal unemployment - printing/not printing. That's all they have. You always neglect my point of the War on Energy and its effects on inflation. One must wonder why you do that. You see, affordable energy is the most important factor in a modern economy. When Brandon declared war on energy, it was a signal that inflation was going to surge no matter the cost to Americans. And he followed through on his promise. And inflation surged as a result. And the Fed responded the only way they could - by raising rates and restricting money supply. How about you address that point? You must not know anyone in the trucking industry. Ask them what their biggest cost is. Ask them when the spike occurred. Go ahead, we'll wait. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And Trump totally didn’t sign the CARES Act. He did. And it breathed some life into a tanking economy due to covid. Printing has a price, but it can have a positive effect, too. Look at the mortgage-backed securities debacle in 2008-09. The Fed printed then, too. Should they not have? This isn't an excuse for excess printing, but the Fed has one blunt-force object to achieve its goals of keeping inflation in check and the economy growing with minimal unemployment - printing/not printing. That's all they have. You always neglect my point of the War on Energy and its effects on inflation. One must wonder why you do that. You see, affordable energy is the most important factor in a modern economy. When Brandon declared war on energy, it was a signal that inflation was going to surge no matter the cost to Americans. And he followed through on his promise. And inflation surged as a result. And the Fed responded the only way they could - by raising rates and restricting money supply. How about you address that point? You must not know anyone in the trucking industry. Ask them what their biggest cost is. Ask them when the spike occurred. Go ahead, we'll wait. Because I actually have training in economics. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” - Milton Friedman |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:53:24 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I couldn’t remember so I looked up (DOE National Averages) Jan 22 - $3.16 Mar 22 - $4.10 Mar 22 - $5.25 Jun 22 - $5.81 (peak) Current - $3.92 Thanks for that. And those price increases are passed along to consumers. Like I said in a previous thread, some people are like baby ducks - history didn't start until they begin paying attention. BTW, I'll bet there was another increase between election day 2020 and Jan. 22, 2021. Why? Because the market is always forward-looking and it didn't like what it was seeing in Brandon's War on Energy. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:55:07 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Because I actually have training in economics. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” - Milton Friedman Everyone who buys stuff has "training in economics", but theirs is real world, not out of a book. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:56:02 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ??? Reagan declared in 1979 and won in 1980. He rewarded Volcker with a econd term because he thought Volcker had done a good job at taming inflation. Which he did. True fact: I bought my first house in the early 80s, under Reagan, when mortgage interest was 12%. You probably weren't born yet. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And when did Volcker hold his emergency meeting because the dimwits in DC were being dimwits. 1979. Reagan wasn’t even the formal candidate then. ??? Reagan declared in 1979 and won in 1980. He rewarded Volcker with a econd term because he thought Volcker had done a good job at taming inflation. Which he did. True fact: I bought my first house in the early 80s, under Reagan, when mortgage interest was 12%. You probably weren't born yet. GOP Convention wasn’t until 1980. Hence my point, it all was before his time. Just because he nominated him for a 2nd post doesn’t mean much. And yes, I wasn’t born yet. Enjoy those property taxes to fund the bankrupt pension in AZ. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 8:58:53 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: GOP Convention wasn’t until 1980. Hence my point, it all was before his time. Just because he nominated him for a 2nd post doesn’t mean much. And yes, I wasn’t born yet. Enjoy those property taxes to fund the bankrupt pension in IL. I have never been to IL. What are you on about now? Reagan DECLARED in 1979. You may have "training in econ", but none in reading comp. Reagan could have named anyone to succeed Volcker, but he appointed Volcker. For a reason. Volcker crushed Carter-era inflation. Read a book. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:00:11 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Musk is one of those people you would be foolish not to listen to. Doesn't mean he's always 100% correct, but he's more correct than anyone else. Member when he said the stock market and housing markets were going to tank last year? They fell some, but nothing major. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:04:17 PM EDT
[#24]
Our international shipments from Asia are back down to 2019 level costs and in a few cases even lower. These are 20 and 40’ containers.
During the supply chain issues we bulked up as we could , as did many of our distributors. Going into March we slashed our inventory levels as lead times , both domestic and foreign, came back to regular levels. With that our inbound dropped off a cliff and we had our main vendor crying about why we were down. They had gotten use to large, millions of dollars , of open POs. Starting in April we began seeing our distributors do the same. I’m getting that weird vibe also about things turning down. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:06:05 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Our international shipments from Asia are back down to 2019 level costs and in a few cases even lower. These are 20 and 40’ containers. During the supply chain issues we bulked up as we could , as did many of our distributors. Going into March we slashed our inventory levels as lead times , both domestic and foreign, came back to regular levels. With that our inbound dropped off a cliff and we had our main vendor crying about why we were down. They had gotten use to large, millions of dollars , of open POs. Starting in April we began seeing our distributors do the same. I’m getting that weird vibe also about things turning down. The Fed's squeeze is having an effect. I'd be surprised if it didn't. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:06:52 PM EDT
[#26]
What day do I head down to the basement bunker ??
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:07:08 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I have never been to IL. What are you on about now? Reagan DECLARED in 1979. You may have "training in econ", but none in reading comp. Reagan could have named anyone to succeed Volcker, but he appointed Volcker. For a reason. Volcker crushed Carter-era inflation. Read a book. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: GOP Convention wasn’t until 1980. Hence my point, it all was before his time. Just because he nominated him for a 2nd post doesn’t mean much. And yes, I wasn’t born yet. Enjoy those property taxes to fund the bankrupt pension in IL. I have never been to IL. What are you on about now? Reagan DECLARED in 1979. You may have "training in econ", but none in reading comp. Reagan could have named anyone to succeed Volcker, but he appointed Volcker. For a reason. Volcker crushed Carter-era inflation. Read a book. Volcker crushed inflation with higher rates. Then Reagan went on the spending binge that got us here today. As for IL, spellcheck got me and I fixed it. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:10:32 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Volcker crushed inflation with higher rates. Then Reagan went on the spending binge that got us here today. As for IL, spellcheck got me and I fixed it. Your spellcheck confuses IL and AZ? Maybe we found your problem! Also, AZ prop taxes are quite reasonable, compared to most places. And what bankrupt pension are you on about? The topic - try to stay on it. ETA: Reagan spent like a drunken sailor on the military, which had been neglected under Carter. He correctly anticipated that it would crush the Soviet Union, and he was right. The price of defeating the USSR - inflation - was cheap compared to a war in Europe. Have you heard of the USSR? Reykjavik Summit? Books. How do they work? |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:13:18 PM EDT
[#29]
I mean we aren't going down a good path. It's not doom, just be semi observant here.
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:15:01 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thanks for that. And those price increases are passed along to consumers. Like I said in a previous thread, some people are like baby ducks - history didn't start until they begin paying attention. BTW, I'll bet there was another increase between election day 2020 and Jan. 22, 2021. Why? Because the market is always forward-looking and it didn't like what it was seeing in Brandon's War on Energy. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I couldn’t remember so I looked up (DOE National Averages) Jan 22 - $3.16 Mar 22 - $4.10 Mar 22 - $5.25 Jun 22 - $5.81 (peak) Current - $3.92 Thanks for that. And those price increases are passed along to consumers. Like I said in a previous thread, some people are like baby ducks - history didn't start until they begin paying attention. BTW, I'll bet there was another increase between election day 2020 and Jan. 22, 2021. Why? Because the market is always forward-looking and it didn't like what it was seeing in Brandon's War on Energy. Not really, but that period was skewed by Covid. Below is Jan 2015 to last week. 
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:19:30 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I couldn’t remember so I looked up (DOE National Averages) Jan 22 - $3.16 Mar 22 - $4.10 Mar 22 - $5.25 Jun 22 - $5.81 (peak) Current - $3.92 If those are gasoline prices, my Maverik station was around $2.21/gallon when the Democrats overthrew a duly elected President (20 January 2021) |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:23:30 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So what does an economic enema do exactly? Tickles your insides in a way you could never imagine. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:24:57 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If those are gasoline prices, my Maverik station was around $2.21/gallon when the Democrats overthrew a duly elected President (20 January 2021) Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I couldn’t remember so I looked up (DOE National Averages) Jan 22 - $3.16 Mar 22 - $4.10 Mar 22 - $5.25 Jun 22 - $5.81 (peak) Current - $3.92 If those are gasoline prices, my Maverik station was around $2.21/gallon when the Democrats overthrew a duly elected President (20 January 2021) Those are DOE diesel national averages. It’s what everyone uses on 87% of fuel surcharge calculations in the shipping industry. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:26:08 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your spellcheck confuses IL and AZ? Maybe we found your problem! Also, AZ prop taxes are quite reasonable, compared to most places. And what bankrupt pension are you on about? The topic - try to stay on it. ETA: Reagan spent like a drunken sailor on the military, which had been neglected under Carter. He correctly anticipated that it would crush the Soviet Union, and he was right. The price of defeating the USSR - inflation - was cheap compared to a war in Europe. Have you heard of the USSR? Reykjavik Summit? Books. How do they work? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Volcker crushed inflation with higher rates. Then Reagan went on the spending binge that got us here today. As for IL, spellcheck got me and I fixed it. Your spellcheck confuses IL and AZ? Maybe we found your problem! Also, AZ prop taxes are quite reasonable, compared to most places. And what bankrupt pension are you on about? The topic - try to stay on it. ETA: Reagan spent like a drunken sailor on the military, which had been neglected under Carter. He correctly anticipated that it would crush the Soviet Union, and he was right. The price of defeating the USSR - inflation - was cheap compared to a war in Europe. Have you heard of the USSR? Reykjavik Summit? Books. How do they work? Math, how does it work.  Attached File |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:26:47 PM EDT
[#35]
You can only pump so much water in a leaky waterbed before it bursts
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:27:32 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your spellcheck confuses IL and AZ? Maybe we found your problem! Also, AZ prop taxes are quite reasonable, compared to most places. And what bankrupt pension are you on about? The topic - try to stay on it. ETA: Reagan spent like a drunken sailor on the military, which had been neglected under Carter. He correctly anticipated that it would crush the Soviet Union, and he was right. The price of defeating the USSR - inflation - was cheap compared to a war in Europe. Have you heard of the USSR? Reykjavik Summit? Books. How do they work? It also created a military so powerful it crushed what was then the 3rd or 4th largest military (iraq) like it was an exercise. To some extent we are still riding that wave. I miss Reagan, he understood what was really important even if he was flawed on 2a. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:29:42 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, to both questions. Cost are driven down due to a surplus of shippers (because there is less cargo to ship). As economics demands equilibrium, the market will have to shed capacity to match the new demand. It’s a race to the bottom, how long can you stand the pain situation. The “boom and bust” cycles are SOP in transportation, but they are generally seasonal or quarterly. You might lose some demand, but the conditions improve shortly there after. But every once in a while, you get a no bullshit economic shift that really throws the supply and demand balance off. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Logistics companies (first to know) have been seeing it for a while. Can you delve into this a little further? We just had a thread here not long ago that had some logistics people in it and they said things are starting to come back online… See heavy260’s reply. It has been bad for the last 6-8 months. It has become considerably worse in the last 6-8 weeks. Everyone is/has been moving loads at a loss. It’s a game to see who can last the longest. The above takes a while to filter through to the general economy, but in short, everybody is about to get kicked in the balls. OK, thanks. I still have questions on what this means. In a supply/demand economy doesn’t this mean there is a surplus of shippers that drive costs down? Or does it mean that there is less cargo to ship so everyone’s cutting their throats to last it out as long as possible? My “man-on-the-street” analysis (based on what I see in stores and hear from shoppers I know) tells me that products are still getting to stores, but there are less of the products. There will be fewer “end of season” blowout sales because odds are it’ll all be sold. Yes, to both questions. Cost are driven down due to a surplus of shippers (because there is less cargo to ship). As economics demands equilibrium, the market will have to shed capacity to match the new demand. It’s a race to the bottom, how long can you stand the pain situation. The “boom and bust” cycles are SOP in transportation, but they are generally seasonal or quarterly. You might lose some demand, but the conditions improve shortly there after. But every once in a while, you get a no bullshit economic shift that really throws the supply and demand balance off. Thanks to you and others for taking the time… I have seen all of this from the consumer/somewhat-insider position but the logistical side is where I lack knowledge. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:33:00 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m torn on this, I know many a people who are waiting for things like vehicle prices to drop and are just generally waiting to buy. 2008 didn’t have people standing by for impending doom. I don't know if there is enough people waiting to buy to offset the mass that is greatly over extended. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 9:50:22 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't know if there is enough people waiting to buy to offset the mass that is greatly over extended. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I’m torn on this, I know many a people who are waiting for things like vehicle prices to drop and are just generally waiting to buy. 2008 didn’t have people standing by for impending doom. I don't know if there is enough people waiting to buy to offset the mass that is greatly over extended. 2008 was the first housing bubble at the national level - although to be fair some areas of the country didnt participate. Because of the novelty of that event and recall that it was prior to the significant use of social media the concept that we were in a massive bubble was not widely acknowledged and was actively suppressed by the mainstream media which exerted more control back then. Appreciate the on the ground observations here. Comports with the increase in credit card debt which at todays rates has to be causing some serious pain. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:11:08 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ??? Reagan declared in 1979 and won in 1980. He rewarded Volcker with a second term because he thought Volcker had done a good job at taming inflation. Which he did. True fact: I bought my first house in the early 80s, under Reagan, when mortgage interest was 12%. You probably weren't born yet. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And when did Volcker hold his emergency meeting because the dimwits in DC were being dimwits. 1979. Reagan wasn’t even the formal candidate then. ??? Reagan declared in 1979 and won in 1980. He rewarded Volcker with a second term because he thought Volcker had done a good job at taming inflation. Which he did. True fact: I bought my first house in the early 80s, under Reagan, when mortgage interest was 12%. You probably weren't born yet. And was your house $400K at 12% interest. Absolute shit holes are listed at $200K now. Housing prices still haven't come down to reflect the current interest rates. I have no idea how people today afford it. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:12:54 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Volcker crushed inflation with higher rates. Then Reagan went on the spending binge that got us here today. As for IL, spellcheck got me and I fixed it. Reagan spent a lot on the military and broke up the Soviet Union. Reagan's tax cuts also greatly increased federal tax receipts. I will have to look at the US debt as a function of time but I doubt that Reagan caused anything like happened with Obama, Trump and the flawed COVID spending and now with that senile asswipe in the White House. Reagan was a great president. I voted for him.....twice. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:12:57 PM EDT
[#42]
Musk may be preparing the ground for the WEF NWO...his new Twitter hiring seems concerning as He seemed on our side for a while.
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:13:39 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Very likely. Recessions are not all bad. They clear out the dead wood. Prolonged periods of economic expansion result in inefficiencies. Companies can survive without being excellent. Employees can keep jobs without as much effort or skill. Resources get tied up in the hands of those who aren’t great at putting them to good use. A recession wrestles resources from the hands of poor-performers and reallocates them to those who will put them to more effective use. As a result the economy grows stronger, more resilient, and faster. It’s economic Darwinism in action. Unless you are a government employee. Poor performance is a requisite! |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:17:05 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ETA: Reagan spent like a drunken sailor on the military, which had been neglected under Carter. He correctly anticipated that it would crush the Soviet Union, and he was right. The price of defeating the USSR - inflation - was cheap compared to a war in Europe. Have you heard of the USSR? Reykjavik Summit? Books. How do they work? The buildup in military spending that occurred during the Reagan admin came after the runaway inflation of the late 70s and early 80s had stopped. Not vice versa as you state. You should take some of your own advice about books. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:18:37 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lease rates for warehouse space are tumbling and empty buildings are getting ignored. 12 months ago you couldn't find a square foot available for less than $2/SF/month in the inland empire. Yeah but California as a state is running off business. My former employer was based in California for over 30 years. Then moved the headquarters to Florida. It is still in Florida |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:23:56 PM EDT
[#46]
Chicken wings at sams club were 26$ for what looked like 15 count.
I bought 4 whole chickens cooked at sams for 20$ plus tax. Two ribeyes were $40 bucks. I trimmed my 50$ briskette tonight and am prepared to tune out of life again. Fucking retards |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:25:34 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Learn to swim. Learn to sail… |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:27:16 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was participating in a thread recently where a number of GDers, some of whom might be part of arf management, said the inflation we are experiencing was Trump's fault. They just couldn't grok the possibility that more than $3 TRILLION in new printing in the last two years, plus the War On Energy by Brandon & co. could have anything to do with it. The timing is just coincidental. Nothing to see here. This is fair warning that GD "experts", some of whom should know better, should be taken with a small grain of smokeless propellant. Pursue the dollar, wear the collar |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:34:24 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, he just hired a WEF chairman to be the new Twitter ceo so there's that. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fv7kmyxWAAEtSYk?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fv7i15faAAA924Y?format=jpg&name=medium From the pics I saw, it was either her awesome tits, or the deep state said hire and let her run shit or we JFK you. |
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Posted: 5/12/2023 10:38:01 PM EDT
[#50]
I work in the aerospace industry. Current predictions are increasing sales every quarter for the next two years.
Airlines are ordering planes. |
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